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FED pricing : we now have nearly -7- cuts priced in for 2024, market even pricing in 5bps for Feb meeting, that's hitting the 'markets going too far indicator' US Conf Board consumer confidence Dec: 110.7 (est 104.5; prevR 101.0) - Conf Board Present Situation Dec: 148.5 (prev 138.2) - Conf Board Expectations Dec: 85.6 (prev 77.8) >>> best since July Philadelphia Fed's Harker on Wed said he still opposes any further U.S. central bank interest rate hikes, while signaling openness to lowering short-term borrowing costs, albeit not imminently Xi warned Biden during summit that Beijing will reunify Taiwan with China. The Chinese leader's message in San Francisco got the attention of U.S. officials because it was delivered at a meeting that was intended to reduce tensions. How to cure China’s declining consumer prices divides opinion as deflation signs deepen Macron insists new law will fix France’s festering ‘immigration problem’. The French president denies the landmark legislation is an 'ideological victory' for Marine Le Pen's National Rally China reportedly suspends US$6.5 billion currency swap agreement with Argentina FedEx : recession warning?: “U.S. package volume was down 3.5% in the November quarter, on a down 15.1% year-ago comp. In other words, the two-year volume trend is deeply negative, and worse than last quarter. So much for improving box demand...” US and UK tighten enforcement of Russian oil price cap UK's Hunt to sign financial services agreement with Switzerland Markets : 30y UST closed below 4% for the first time since July, 10's 3.85% >> 7 cuts priced in for '24 Commodities - funds are most underweight for a very long time, like over 6years SPX500 dips 1.5% as VIX options expiries are hit by some big daily ODTE options buying, gamma squeeze on the day, that's all, below 4650 and VIX 15+ say and it may look diff into year-end ! USDJPY, CROSSJPY's looks set for a move down again sooner or later, particularly with global yields staying low(er), CHF looks to close strong(er) into year-end, bar any new developments from SNB GOLD, XPT, XAG etc been fairly steady/higher, momentum building for a break up EU HY prices widest vs US since 2009 >>> this is what FI markets watching going into 2024 Over next few days, beware if whatever is overly owned, liquidity gaps, Algo's will push for weak side of things very quickly, as demonstrated last night (SPX-US equities) Fed's Harker open to lowering interest rates, but not imminently (yahoo.com) New Threat: The Bloomberg Open, Americas Edition - Bloomberg Houthi Attacks in the Red Sea Add $22 Billion to Valuations of Shipping Companies (yahoo.com) Red Sea Threat: Container Ships Reroute as US Weighs Response - Bloomberg Xi warned Biden during summit that Beijing will reunify Taiwan with China (nbcnews.com) US and UK tighten enforcement of Russian oil price cap (ft.com) A Brief History of Gold in the United States | LinkedIn Macron insists new law will fix France's festering 'immigration problem' (telegraph.co.uk) Louis Curran on X: "🇺🇸Great Hall Of The People Accord 🇨🇳 China Sold US Bonds In Q3, But Rescued The US And China From Armegeddon. IMV, China was gaming the US using its US bond holdings as leverage around the time Fitch downgraded US deb. After the downgrade, they said nothing publically, but… https://t.co/DpkRcAFl8O" / X (twitter.com) How to cure China’s declining consumer prices divides opinion as deflation signs deepen | South China Morning Post (scmp.com) China reportedly suspends US$6.5 billion currency swap agreement with Argentina | South China Morning Post (scmp.com) Hunt to sign financial services agreement with Switzerland (msn.com) Good ! Why Wall Street thinks Apple could be the first $4 trillion company (cnbc.com) good lord Ed Conway on X: "🌞Here's a short story abt how I went to Morocco to see one of the world's biggest solar plants. It didn't go quite as I expected This is the Noor complex near Ouarzazate. It's massive. Bigger than the capital of Morocco. Europe (& UK) plan to import solar power from Morocco. 🧵 https://t.co/GHWQfy99IU" / X (twitter.com) this is very good too Ed Conway on X: "This is an excellent guided tour of a semiconductor factory from someone who genuinely understands the technology (and is great at explaining it) - @matthewvenn https://t.co/LytPTKGmLk" / X (twitter.com) Cocaine: Swiss capital Bern may allow sales as 'the war on drugs has failed' | World News | Sky News EURJPY (USDJPY) look set to soon start new leg lower

Global fund manager sentiment is the most upbeat since Jan. 2022: BofA survey. Investors were the most overweight stocks since before the Fed started to hike rates. Cash was cut to a 2-year low of 4.5% & investors are the most overweight bonds in 15 years, something to beware/keep in mind for early Jan, just in case Bonds start misbehaving again. Same survey shows FM are the most underweight commodities in over 6years Fed talks : Raphael Bostic stressed patience before the Fed lowers rates, seeing inflation coming down “relatively slowly in the next six months.” Thomas Barkin signaled cuts are on the horizon if inflation keeps falling >>> the Fed pivot, asset markets rally, decline in VIX, IG spreads since March (60bps), 10y UST drop in yields to current levels and lower oil prices ($20 since Sep) will boost U.S GDP growth by 1.5% or so in H1 (perhaps why Fed will have to be careful..) According to multiple U.S. Officials, Preparations are now underway for a Military Operation against the Houthi Terrorist Group in Yemen by the United States and others/Thread below Japan govt to raise long-term rate estimate to 1.9% in next year's budget Markets : NYFANG is most overbought since June levels (overbought can stay overbought for longer than many thinks though, overbought does not mean down - just needs consolidating for few weeks, many other 'overbought signals out there though, RSI's 70+ act accordingly Bund on 1 handle, 1,99%, massive move, when you consider it was on a 3 handle in early October !!, same for many other contracts, global deeflation is the word around at the moment, UK data was weaker than expected again too this morning #IWM looks to be breaking up (chart) #URA stocks taking a breather, correction glower, after huge move in 2023 Crude : grinding higher, U.S production on the increase again.. no need to replenish SPR this way... The U.S has added the equivalent of a new Venezuela in oil supply during Q4 2023, putting pressure on mid-east and other oil producers/Thread below USDollar not exactly rallying, CHF strength still there, EURCHF doesn't seem to get away from those .94-.9500 handle, AUD looks to be slowly breaking up, CAD similarly Fund managers most overweight on bonds in 15 years: BofA (yahoo.com) Fund managers most upbeat on stock market since January 2022 as S&P 500 nears record (msn.com) Shippers divert $35 billion in cargo from Red Sea (cnbc.com) The Costs the Houthis Are Poised to Inflict on the Global Economy | TIME Japan govt to raise long-term rate estimate to 1.9% in next year's budget -Nikkei (msn.com) The AI revolution is coming. Invest in $10,000 handbags | Nils Pratley | The Guardian Markets & Mayhem on X: "The US added the equivalent of a new Venezuela in oil supply during Q4, with less rigs producing more oil as technological efficiency ramps up This supply growth has exceeded expectations and furled OPEC's attempt to put a floor under prices, at least for now https://t.co/jHcaE5Ijxa" / X (twitter.com) OSINTdefender on X: "According to multiple U.S. Officials, Preparations are now underway for a Military Operation against the Houthi Terrorist Group in Yemen by the United States and other Countries involved with Operation Prosperity Guardian, with the Goal of the Operation being the Total… https://t.co/QimCsjPBIV" / X (twitter.com) Thomas Jordan Critical of CS Since Tidjane Thiam Era (finews.asia) Thomas Jordan, the long-time Chairman of the National Bank, reportedly wanted to intervene much earlier at Credit Suisse, according to a media report. But his concerns were brushed aside EU reaches agreement on new set of rules to manage migration and asylum | Reuters Why has Donald Trump been removed from the Colorado ballot and what happens next? (msn.com) Bear: Hut Burns, Chef Sails - Inside Paradeplatz Iceland volcano: Pollution warning for capital after eruption - BBC News Alastair Campbell's heroes and villains of 2023 - The New European Russell on the cusp of breaking up

The US military said it shot down 14 drones over the Red Sea launched from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen. The world's largest container line is diverting ships away from the Red Sea Not suggesting market should....but there you go : When does the market go 'ex-shelter' ??..market always goes ex energy, ex food.. etc. >>> Excluding Shelter, US consumer prices rose 1.4% over the last year, the 6th consecutive month below 2%. A huge week that was : U.S services were pretty good, while EU PMI in big trouble still, US retail sales holding up very well, China IP finally surprised to the topside (and PBOC added HUGE liquidity - $132bn - last time they did this stocks rallied huge) and the market played a full FED pivot on FOMC, adding more cuts in 2024, near 150bps all priced in by now, ECB similar, BoE slightly less >>>> we now have BoJ tomorrow (will they won't they, our plan was always they would-will but in Q1 2024, then we get BoK and BoC minutes On friday afternoon, FED's Bostic and Williams pushed back a little on rate cuts expectations for 2024 The Takeaways From Zelensky's Latest Trip to Washington and UKR/EU promises Financial markets had their best Fed day since 2009, everything rallied, interest sensitive (REIT's etc), most shorted/hated index (ARKK) and small caps rallied most, last few weeks have been a nightmare for leverage and some HF's Pfizer most likely overpays $43 billion on small Cancer Drug Company that barely makes $2 billion a year Goldman has raised year-end 2024 S&P 500 index target from 4700 to 5100, representing 8% upside from the current level. Decelerating inflation and Fed easing will keep real yields low and support a P/E multiple >19x. Since late October, real rates plummeted from 2.5% to 1.7%. Our prior year-end 2024 forecast assumed yields of 2.3% and a P/E of 18x. Upside risk exists to our above-consensus EPS estimate of 5% growth Yardeni : "The vigilantes will be back," said in an interview. "This is not an issue that will go away unless it's fixed. If anything, the deficit outlook is probably worse than is being anticipated." Ex-PBOC Adviser Says China Needs to Cut US Treasury Holdings - Securities Times >>> An orderly reduction in China’s holdings of US Treasuries is “necessary,” given the low coupon rates and expected rapid increase of US’s net debt abroad, former PBOC adviser Yu Yongding said at a Sunday event in China The US added another $2.6 trillion of debt between June 2023 and December 2023. $31.4 trillion to $34 trillion now Companies domiciled in Switzerland and Liechtenstein continued to repatriate billions from their subsidiaries abroad in 2022 #CHF Mind - boggling fact : Combined weighting of Magnificent Seven in MSCI All Country World Index is > all stocks from Japan, France, China, & UK Markets : Russell goes from worst to best within 8weeks, yet still 40% of companies in this index have negative earning 30-Year Mortgage Rate plummets to lowest level in 9 months The Mag 7 stocks are trading on a forward P/E of 33x, rest of SPX trades on 21x SPX500, DJ, QQQ pretty much all of them in overbougtht territories, not hard to see, many comments out there 'most stocks above their 200dma's' or RSI above 70+, signs that retail traders are all in etc >>> all this means is don't be greedy of what ever is owned ! still a lot of room for VALUE and quality dividend stocks to push on higher ! Most shorted/hated GS index had its best week ever, another HF long-short nightmare USD relatively quiet really, BoJ up next for some guidance, most likely doing nothing this time round (we expect them to tweak in Q1 2024, but by now this may be only a mini tweak..), USD lost some grouinds clearly after FOMC and more cuts priced in but nothing too dramatic >>> HF turned positions around quite aggressively last week and actually turned net short USD..humm.. Crude WTI found some love below/around $70 >>> markets got themselves too short commods ? #GDX, #SILJ should all be pretty interesting into 2024, quite aLOT 'bullish' technical flags out there, nothing much confirmed yet though, waiting patiently! Fed Officials Shift Tone But Remain Wary of Markets’ Rate Cut Bets - Bloomberg Fed’s Williams, Bostic Push Back on Interest Rate Cut Talk for Early 2024 - Bloomberg China Should Trim US Treasury Holdings, Former PBOC Adviser Says - Bloomberg Bankruptcies soar as high rates and end of Covid aid hit businesses hard (ft.com) Red Sea Shipping Chaos as US Military Defends Threat to Commercial Vessels - Bloomberg UK and US navy vessels shoot down suspected attack drones in Red Sea | Yemen | The Guardian Israel finds large tunnel near Gaza border, raises questions about prewar intelligence | AP News PBoC carries out record liquidity injection - Central Banking Ole S Hansen on X: "COT on #commodities saw continued capitulation selling ahead of FOMC when the BCOM lost 3.2%. The net long collapsing by 46% to a three-year low at 274k. Net short positions held in nine led by #natgas, #palladium, #corn and #wheat while longs are concentrated in #crudeoil,… https://t.co/nVeoBa9GOe" / X (twitter.com) Markets gone too short commods ? Euro zone likely in recession, PMI surveys show | Reuters Blistering Treasuries Rally Quiets Deficit-Obsessed Vigilantes - Bloomberg The Takeaways From Zelensky's Latest Trip to Washington (stratfor.com) EU vows Ukraine to get aid despite veto by Hungary's Orban | Reuters Ex-FBI Intel Chief Who 'Investigated' Trump-Russia Collusion Gets 4 Years In Prison For Colluding With Russia | ZeroHedge you just couldn't make this up ! Reuters 2023 Year in Review Live updates: Rudy Giuliani ordered to pay nearly $150 million in damages (cnn.com) Pfizer concludes USD 43 billion acquisition of Seagen (medicaldialogues.in) Been in trouble ever sinc eafter COVID...seems a little desperado Michelle Mone admits she stands to benefit from £60m PPE profit - BBC News god damn lies, but why in the first place was the British government allowing 'their friends' to go and get these deals done at pretty much any price... Republican strategist Jeff Roe quits pro-DeSantis super PAC amid turmoil - POLITICO UBS Targets Hundreds of Bankers to Claw Back CS Bonuses (finews.asia) Not sot fast! Swiss multinationals continued to repatriate billions in 2022 - SWI swissinfo.ch

Another big option expiry quadruple witching day To Recap : FED was dovish clerly signalling cuts are coming in JUne 2024 (dop plots have total of 75bps in cuts, market has twice has much already priced in), Norges hiked 25bps, SNB, BoC trying to balance the risks of over-tightening, BoE and ECB stood pat, market trimmed wagers after Lagarde said officials didn't discuss cuts at all (''strong domectis price pressure??? really?? see PMI), the ECB hasten the end of its PEPP investments though, hawkish BoE warned of a 'way to go' on price pressures And here we are aleady.. : Villeroy: Next ECB move should be a cut, but first 'enjoy' the plateau Citi's Andrew Hollenhorst: The Fed's "bringing-forward of rate cuts is an indication of the difficulty in attempting to fine-tune policy to achieve a soft-landing, not an indication that one has already been achieved (as markets are pricing)." Manhattan rents fell for the first time in over two years, as the supply of empty apartments grew and renters held out for price cuts >>> welcome news for core CPI watchers (shelter) Hungary blocks €50bn of EU budget funds for Ukraine hours after agreement is reached to open membership talks (Hungary will have presidency at the end of 2024..) China’s move to pump a record amount of cash ($112bn) into the economy coincided with renewed support for the property sector, sending a more powerful stimulus message to investors after piecemeal approaches had left them disheartened Bundesbank’s Forecast for Germany: Inflation in Germany on the decline but no all-clear yet. Bundesbank expects HICP rate of 6.1% for 2023. Set to fall to 2.7% in 2024, 2.5% in 2025 and 2.2% in 2026 (and sloowgrowth=stagflation like) Markets : USD lower, given divergence from CB expectations (of course the FED hiked earlier than most and hiked more, so they would be the one cutting first...) U.S bonds have had one of the biggest short-term rallies....ever Rates : the danger here is as CB's turn dovish, the market has ALREADY done a lot fo the ground work and priced in 1.5% of cuts for next year from FED, ECB and BoE (not quite) The small-cap Russell 2,000 made a new 52-week high today after hitting a 52-week low just 48 days ago (huge change in rates..)...nearly 50% of SPX components have an RSI greater than 70, most overbought in at least a decade, rotations continue into year-end!!, value shoudl do well if not much better, catch up coming PALL up nearly 20% this week driven by Fed pivot and Russian disruption threats XPT chart looking increasingly like breaking up, we stay long (low cost of prod etc) GS's HF VIP vs most short index is down sharply last few weeks, SHARPLY! chart available Fed’s ‘Transitory’ on Inflation Call Gets Some New Life … for Now - Bloomberg Congress passes $886 billion defense policy bill, Biden to sign into law (cnbc.com) Bundesbank’s Forecast for Germany: Falling inflation, but not yet time to sound the all-clear | Deutsche Bundesbank Villeroy: Next ECB move should be a cut, but first 'enjoy' the plateau | Reuters Hungary blocks €50bn of EU funding for Ukraine (msn.com) EU sidesteps Viktor Orbán to open membership talks with Ukraine | Ukraine | The Guardian Recession red-flags but Brits to splash the cash this Christmas (cityam.com) And BoE was still hawkish... French business activity contracts more than expected in December -flash PMI (msn.com)  (spglobal.com) China’s Policy Combo Gives Investors Hope for a Market Rally - Bloomberg Manhattan rents fall for first time in over two years (cnbc.com) Can you have a healthy democracy without a common set of facts? (economist.com) Thefts of JLR Range Rovers Cause Insurance To Soar, Values To Plummet - Bloomberg Amazon to connect Kuiper internet satellites with laser links (cnbc.com) COP28: What Say the Banks? (finews.asia) This week, the Middle East hosted the 28th annual United Nations Climate Change Conference, commonly known as COP28. Despite disputes about the language used in the final agreement, global banks were still optimistic about the future of climate-related investment themes. XPT long -term - cost of production around $900... hold!

Powell, as friendly as he could be for markets, quick reaction with higher risk/equties, bonds ripped higher BIG time and USD down sharply particularly vs JPY, Gold etc, clear message they are done, only question is how far or how fast they cut in 2024, market already doing the job for them though, FED's dots show 75bps of cuts next year, the market as almost twice as much priced in, the market has 25's as the implied path, why not 50 ? Powell on the last mile of getting inflation down: "we kind of assume it will get harder from here, but so far it hasn't." Instead of pushing back against the rosy nature of the market’s 2024 forecast, Powell embraced it. Based on the market’s reaction, he might as well have screamed, “We did it!” This is quite something : one FOMC member sees 6 rate cuts in 2024 (four see 4 cuts; six see 3 cuts, five see 2 cuts; one sees 1 cut, and two see 0 cuts) - pretty wide spreads of views Norges hiked ! noting that policy rte is likely to be kept at 4.5% for some time ahead U.S : based on the Nov CPI and PPI, headline PCE inflation likely declined last month >>> 30year breakeven inflation making new lows now nearer to 2.22% Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings are trending higher, and Fed hikes continue to bite harder and harder on highly leveraged firms with little or no cash flows in tech, growth, and venture capital, Fed just helped! The percentage of commodities trading above their 200-day moving average has fallen to the lowest level since the Covid crash, crude lower, NatGas collapse lately are all signs of low demand, recession like >>>> time to step in! Global High Yield Bond ETFs saw an inflow of $11.6 billion in November, the highest monthly inflow ever recorded surpassing the previous best of $8.6 billion in April 2020, when everyone went 'all-in on the soft landing' COP28 ''So much diplomatic gymnastics in Dubai that the statement really bends over. "... transitioning away from fossil fuels in a just, orderly and equitable manner..." BUT "... recognizes that transitional fuels [a.k.a., natural gas] can play a role ... " Argentina has devalued its currency, the peso, by more than 50% (to 800 peso) as part of a package of large-scale spending cuts intended to address the country’s worst economic crisis in decades >>> that's not even where it is/was trading in the black market.. Pfizer is now below Covid panic lows, it's wiped out a decade of value and lost 50% since the vaccine peak The Swiss National Bank keeps borrowing costs unchanged and dropped a reference to possible further hikes after inflation slowed below its ceiling Markets : 2y UST yields are at same level they were 1y ago, 4.42% Crude slightly higher, commods higher (lower USD), Uranium has now surged pas $85 per pound for the 1st time since Jan 2008 EU50stoxx now most overbought since 1999 - from 2023 lows to 2023 highs within 6weeks...and together with SPX500, QQQ, Mag 7 etc - all overbought by now - Fed helping clearly, markets 'may' be getting ahead of themselves with cuts in 2024, for now it's all good, but beware if FOMO goes to sleep, anything that had been battered by higher rates is rallying hard S&P500 is now about 8% higher since the 1st Fed rate hike on March 17th 2022.. but going back to 1982, the SPX500 returned an average of nearky 20%... in the 12months after theFed funds peaked (GS). DJ 37K for 1st time ever, many 'all time highs' stories out there Vix on 12 is lowest levels since Nov 2019, that's partly why FOMO and thank you Powell EM markets should love Fed from here on Fed's Powell Leans Into Rate Cuts, Stoking Party on Wall Street - Bloomberg Yahoo Finance on X: "“We still have a ways to go,” Fed Chair Powell says on inflation. “No one is declaring victory. That would be premature.” https://t.co/mtaGUeuiLz" / X (twitter.com) Federal Reserve Board - Federal Reserve Board and Federal Open Market Committee release economic projections from the December 12-13 FOMC meeting Nr 7 of Saxo outrageous prediction (WHICH I actually love, JPY etc) Japan’s Lucky 7% GDP growth rate affects yield-curve-control | Saxo Markets (home.saxo) Summary:  Japan was an economic powerhouse for many years before the bubble burst in 1991 and a long period of stagnation began. Corporate profits and wages were depressed, and an aging society meant labour supply shortages and a drag on consumption. But a new bottom is found as deflation ends and wages and private capex pick up, bringing productivity gains and fast-paced economic growth. Norway’s Final Hike Defying Global Shift Sparks Krone Surge (yahoo.com) Swiss central bank holds interest rate steady as inflation eases | Euronews Why are US stocks sluggish? Some blame a looming $5 trillion options expiration (yahoo.com) Oil Market Signals Bearishness in All Key Global Price Hubs - Bloomberg IEA says oil demand slowdown to persist in 2024 amid oversupply fears (cnbc.com) indeed (and NatGas and other commods) Gas prices fell 6% in November, leading inflation’s cooldown (yahoo.com) California orders spending freeze as deficit piles up (sjvsun.com) EU at critical juncture over aid to Ukraine (cnbc.com) With rate hikes likely done, Fed turns to timing of cuts | Reuters The Fed - December 13, 2023: FOMC Projections materials, accessible version (federalreserve.gov) Australia employment surges in November, jobless rate up as workforce grows | Reuters Javier Blas on X: "#COP28 COMMUNIQUÉ: So much diplomatic gymnastics in Dubai that the statement really bends over. "... transitioning away from fossil fuels [...] in a just, orderly and equitable manner..." BUT "... recognizes that transitional fuels [a.k.a., natural gas] can play a role ... " https://t.co/6a79ErpaGR" / X (twitter.com) Yahoo Finance on X: ""If we see rate cuts in the first half of next year it is because something bad has happened," J.P.Morgan Asset Management's Jack Manley says. "It is an indication that the economy has deteriorated in a certain way, unemployment has spiked, GDP has meaningfully decelerated..." https://t.co/yWM7LT3V1H" / X (twitter.com) Argentina’s new government devalues peso by more than 50% | Argentina | The Guardian Pfizer shares sink after it resets 2024 COVID expectations (msn.com) what a change of fortunes! lowest levels since 2014.. Pfizer Stock Sinks To 10-Year Low—Why Investors Have Soured On Covid-Era Giant (msn.com) Thats was pretty good The London Economic on X: "Sir Keir Starmer was doing stand-up in front of an increasingly exasperated Sunak at #PMQs, who was all but defeated when Chris Bryant landed the killer blow 👇💥 https://t.co/9cknd7FZXy" / X (twitter.com) Tesla recalls nearly all vehicles sold in US to fix system that monitors drivers using Autopilot (qz.com) Goldman Sachs Asset Management Announces Liquidation of Goldman Sachs ActiveBeta® Paris-Aligned Climate U.S. Large Cap Equity ETF | Business Wire ESG was just aphenomenal pipe dreams for large institutions, fantastic marketing tool... not sure about the rest... hope oyu never got caught in this since we talked about it years ago Remote work and return-to-office: What's next for workers and bosses? (cnbc.com) USDJPY ... on our way to 130JPY

All ears on Powell tonight, a load of data, quadruple witching Friday - so busy 72hours coming up for markets, ahead of Xmas holiday season, equity markets rallied lead by QQ higher yesterday as crude collapsed another 4% (NatGas too lately..) and U.S CPI came in as expected >>> markets currently have about 1.10% of rate cuts priced in by Dec 2024, 1.25% for ECB, 90bps for BoE and about 0.7% for SNB >>> Markets not quite aligned to Powell or vice versa, who's right, might Powell want to adjust expectations ? we shall see, I bet he wishes he could say as little as possible today and keep options open on both sides, markets though have decided 2months ago that inflation is softer and thuis rate cut expectations priced in China’s top leaders vowed to make industrial policy their top economic priority next year, a disappointment for investors hoping for consumer-targeted stimulus. The statement from the annual economic work conference called for a focus on “technological innovation.” Language on “appropriately stepped up” fiscal measures echoed an earlier meeting Japan business mood rises for 3rd straight quarter on stronger demand. BOJ Tankan survey shows growing optimism among large companies COP28 president hails climate deal as 'historic' German Ruling Coalition Seals Deal on Revised 2024 Budget "Show me the incentive, and I will show you the outcome. The basic rule of incentives is that you get what you were rewarded for. If you have a dumb incentive system, you get dumb outcomes."-Charlie Munger U.S CPI was 3.1% yesterday, off the peak of 9.,1% in June 2022 Microsoft targets nuclear to power AI operations - WSJ Markets : Crude WTI sub $70 down 4% yesterday - Brent challenging the 200week average $74. NatGas also down 35% since late October! Equity markets, QQQ loves low/steady rate, lower crude prices, and low(er) VIX-vols creates more buying, we know how it works and/or how it can work in reverse (beware tonight, if Powell for some reasons comes out hawkish, stating strong consumers, and tight employment level, this would probably shake a few long Eq in short-term, all about 2024 expectations though) USD not doing much, in fact FX asleep at the wheel to be honest UST 10's big picture holidng the 4.00-4.10% area that we mentioned few weeks back Nr.6 of Saxo's outrageous predictions for 2024 and beyond Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. wins the 2024 US Presidential Election | Saxo Group (home.saxo) Summary:  In 2024, for the first time in the history of the USA, a third-party candidate, Robert F. Kennedy Jr, wins the US presidential election. His populist platform against the war-mongering Democrats and against the corporate elites resonates with both disgruntled traditional Democratic and Trump supporters. A new political era in the USA begins with the dramatic pivot away from plutocracy, as voters demand an end to drastic inequality and injustice and the end of forever wars. SAXO webinar - FX options - feel free to register Upcoming events and webinars | Saxo Group (home.saxo) they have a much improved FX option offering now Inflation Report Is Enough to Sustain Wall Street's Hopes for a 2024 Fed Pivot - Bloomberg Surveillance: Fed ‘Pivot Party’ Rages On With In-Line Inflation Print The easing-in-2024 case stays alive, and now everyone waits to hear from Powell Nearly 40% of U.S. homes are mortgage-free, census shows (axios.com) Japan business mood rises for 3rd straight quarter on stronger demand - Nikkei Asia China exports deflation as home demand for steel and autos low - Nikkei Asia German Ruling Coalition Seals Deal on Revised 2024 Budget (yahoo.com) UN General Assembly demands immediate Gaza ceasefire (msn.com) COP28 president hails climate deal as 'historic' | Reuters Is it ? Australia plans to halve migrant intake, tighten student visa rules - CNA (channelnewsasia.com) UK lawmakers vote in favor of the Rwanda migration bill in a much-needed respite for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak (qz.com) Record low turnout as Hong Kong votes in ‘patriots’-only election | Hong Kong | The Guardian Argentina devalues peso, cuts spending to treat fiscal deficit 'addiction' | Reuters UBS Real Estate Costs Jump After CS Takeover (finews.asia) CS cadres lost $1.2 billion in deferred bonuses - Inside Paradeplatz '''Peanuts in view of the more than 25 billion bonuses that the CS had withheld from its bosses in the decade before its demise?''' NatGas

U.S CPI coming up (expectations is +0.3%, core 4%) + sizeable UST bond auctions, FOMC next up , and both ECB and BoE, SNB all expected to be on hold >>> clearly there is a risk that the FED 'rebalances' expectations of rate cuts for 2024 as market focus has clearly shifted from UST supply to inflation. Stocks and bonds seeing dead inflation ahead >>> in many way, for the market to be right, you need most or every FOMC members to be wrong (based on their recent comments) GOLDMAN: “.. Recent inflation data have been an encouraging surprise even to our optimistic expectations, and our forecast path for year-on-year core PCE inflation has fallen somewhat as a result. .. We are therefore pulling our forecast of the first cut forward to 2024Q3.” Despite the reaction which was mostly due to the unemployment rate retreating to 3.7% last month, it is clear that job growth is slowing. 3-month moving average of private payrolls is now down to 145K China's pork deflation is pretty stunning, with pork CPI falling 31.8% year-on-year and dragging down overall CPI in November by about 0.58 ppt -Oil prices could crash 50% if OPEC+ lets output rise and doesn't extend cuts through 2024, Citi commodities research chief says, Oil forecasts have flipped. Forecasts now show a significantly oversupplied market for 2024 -Crunch time for Ukraine as the West wavers. The next week could be critical for the country’s future. Having promised open-ended support, the US and EU are struggling to provide new funding -Occidental’s Debt Binge Leaves Investors Exposed to OPEC -Germany cannot support COP28 draft deal, foreign minister says -Stefanik Targets Harvard And MIT Presidents—‘Totally Unfit And Untenable’—As GOP Campaign Grows >> Universities shoudl focus on Research and teaching, not politics ! -"I've got some advice for the young: If you've got anything you really want to do, don't wait until you're 93" --- Charlie Munger Markets : Consenss if for equity markets to rally gently into January barring a major shock from today's CPI report anfd tomorrow's FOMC VIX on the floor, realized vols on the lows, self-fulfiling in equity markets, the lower it goes the more systematic leverage is deployed, and buy-the-dip is automatic >>>>>>> as always beware when/IF it reverses.. USD pausing - CROSSJPY's higher again as BoJ ignals no move in Dec (was alsways goiong ot be the case that only Jan owas in play) SPX500 grinding higher still, low vols, systematic buying etc (and/or reverse ! if-when vols tick higher on some sort of surprise highe CPI, if so the market will quickly speculate that Powell's tone will be hawkish on Wednesday Natural Gas continues to get decimated and has declined by 33% since its October 27th high and has now fallen to a 6-month low, good news! so why are gas prices going up in the UK in Jan ???... can we assume the only reasons it must be coming from renewable costs?...yeps,but hang on politicians told us green energy woul dbring prices down ?? Deficit countries form ‘Rome Club’ to negotiate trade terms | Saxo Group (home.saxo) No.5 of Saxo's oputrageous predictions : Summary:  The sustained and worsening divergence in current accounts between a group of surplus and deficit countries is a result of managed currencies and is not sustainable long-term. As the US debt situation has become uncontrollable, a group of six deficit countries form a ‘Rome Club’ to cooperate on reducing deficits by collectively negotiating new world trade terms with the surplus countries. We see gold, silver and cryptocurrencies doing very well in an unpredictable environment for the world’s reserve currency and the unsustainable current accounts among deficit countries Board of Changemakers: H.E. Al-Rumayyan, Dalio, Dimon, Fraser, Motsepe and more - #FII7 Day 1 - YouTube The Fed Doesn’t Need to Cut Rates. Treasury Debt Management Has the Same Effect. - Barron's (barrons.com) - must admit, fwiw! I tend to agree London's financial district opens US offices amid post-Brexit charm offensive | Reuters Oil Prices Could Crash 50% If OPEC+ Lets Output Rise in 2024: Citi (businessinsider.com) Russia-Ukraine war: The West wavers on Ukraine (afr.com) Occidental’s Debt Binge Leaves Investors Exposed to OPEC - Bloomberg >>> “Occidental, which trades under the ‘OXY’ ticker, could well change its symbol to ‘OPEC’ — giving a more accurate reflection of what shareholders are buying” Germany cannot support COP28 draft deal, foreign minister says | Reuters Novo Nordisk is the 2023 Yahoo Finance Company of the Year I’ve spent 40 years making forecasts. My confidence in them is at rock-bottom (telegraph.co.uk) whats new? but good that someone said it ! '''I’ve spent 40 years making forecasts. My confidence in them is at rock-bottom, models can be amazingly reliable, or little better than a guess0''' Special counsel asks US supreme court to rule on Trump’s claim of immunity | Donald Trump | The Guardian Stefanik Targets Harvard And MIT Presidents—‘Totally Unfit And Untenable’—As GOP Campaign Grows (forbes.com) Rishi Sunak Covid inquiry live: Eat Out to Help Out was safe and designed to save jobs - Sunak - BBC News too many lies!

Week ahead : China consumer prices dropped the most in 3years, after slightly stronger than expected NFP on Friday (still tight and growing), we head into U.S CPI tomorrow and PPI, OPEC monthly meeting and FOMC on Wednesday, then ECB and BoE meeting on Thursday >>> markets not expecting or pricing hardly any risk of a hike for this week, clearly the message and the 'dots' for 2024 will matter China CPI down a fastest pace in 3years -0.5% (exp. -0.1%) US corporate earnings: the S&P500’s fate increasingly rests on whether a handful of the biggest tech companies can parlay AI investments into higher profits. 7 Co's, including Microsoft and Nvidia — have driven about 75% of the index’s gain this year. Valuations are high, with the companies’ shares trading at an average of 32 times earnings Bonds extended their November rally as central banks shifted to a far more neutral stance, suggesting rate hikes are basically done. That set off a race among traders to price in a rapid pivot to rate cuts. Only a week after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said it was “premature” to speculate about 2024 easing, markets were betting on about a 70% chance the US central bank will start reducing borrowing costs in March. A full percentage point of cuts are now priced in by November 2024, major shift last week, was ECB hawks pulling their wings 2024 outlook for now, is that the world will grow by a modest 2.7% next year / BBG and a huge amount of elections, including of course in teh U.S Xi Jinping warns China’s economic recovery at ‘critical stage’. Communist party Politburo promises ‘proactive’ fiscal and ‘effective’ monetary policy to support growth FED balancesheet down $1.2trn from peak in Aporil 2022, another $3.6trn covid QE to unwind “We’ve got to cut down on farming due to ‘Climate Change’…or people are going to starve…” -John Kerry .. Markets : Broadly speaking, priced to near perfection ? clearly a more hawkish sounding Powell could derail/stop this upside momentum in equity into year-end UST 10's yields support around 4.00-4.05% held well, right back to 4.25% >>> U.S. debt issuance will be big in 2024 (even if a known known, it will matter) USD picking up a little as BoJ unlikely to move in Dec (never really was likely mind) and FOMC meeting ahead (ECB and BOE behind on Thursday), BoJ early next week Xi Jinping warns China’s economic recovery at ‘critical stage’ (ft.com) This Week's Fed Meeting Could Shock Market Rates Higher | Seeking Alpha Generative AI deepfake triggers a national security crisis | Saxo Group (home.saxo) No.4 of Saxo's outrageous predictions (not predictions, simply food for thoughts and a chat, it's always good to challenge views out there and discuss Summary:  Generative AI, hailed as a productivity boon, becomes a national security threat after a daring AI deepfake heist against a high-ranking official in a developed country. Governments crack down on AI with new regulations, puncturing the AI hype as VCs flee the industry. Public distrust in AI-generated news soars and governments impose new laws, allowing only a small group of entities to disseminate public news. OSINTdefender on X: "Initial Reports that Israel has given the Lebanese Government and Military a “48-Hour Ultimatum” to begin Negotiations on an Agreement to return Hezbollah to their Positions which were agreed upon by United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701, or else the IDF will launch a… https://t.co/ApwtjKFxCS" / X (twitter.com) University of Pennsylvania students react to leaders' resignations (usatoday.com) Yemen's Houthis warn they will target all ships headed to Israel | Reuters Political Shakeup May Smooth BOJ Rate Hike Path, Economists Say (yahoo.com) Listed companies own over $11 billion in Bitcoin (thearmchairtrader.com) Germany's Biggest Ever VC Startup Growth Fund of Fund Aims for 1 Billion EUR - Fintech Schweiz Digital Finance News - FintechNewsCH Argentine President Milei warns economic shock unavoidable in maiden speech | Reuters EURJPY - in middle of our range - so little to suggest here, would prefer to sell a big rally towards 160+ again, but will watch fireworks this week with CB meeting and BoJ next week

FX is alive!! - December markets, classic... nice reaction to rates, both UST and JGB's yesterday, lets see after NFP, broadly speaking we've broken some big support levels in USDJPY and some / most CROSSJPY's, EURJPY moved decently but it is still probably one of the largest long out there - see below (and CHFJPY:.) GS NFP preview: "An all around weak report and I expect the market will likely sharply extend recent moves and may even start entertaining questions such as a potential, January fed cut or whether a March cut could be 50bps" , "A negative trend in the economic data starting to form, so yes, a bad news is bad news narrative will come to the forefront over the next 1-2 months" Weak Eurozone data has fulled a dovish ECB narrative and almost 2 rate cuts priced in April (falling orders, ind prod further down showing a carry over QoQ in Q4) >>> Goldman Sachs Sees ECB Lowering Rates By 25 bps In Each Meeting From April US announces military air exercises in Guyana amid Venezuela tensions as Venezuela’s president orders creation of new state and map including land from Guyana Central Banks are on pace to buy more than 1,000 tons of gold for the 2nd straight year and possibly reach the highest level purchased since 2010 Tory MP Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg’s boutique fund management house Somerset Capital is set to wind down after suffering substantial client redemptions China’s Xi goes full Stalin with purge. In a sign of instability in Beijing’s top ranks, foreign policy and defense officials are vanishing as Xi roots out perceived enemies Reuters reports that the United States believes Iran's Revolutionary Guards is involved in planning, executing and authorizing attacks on Israel and shipping in the Red Sea The 30Y mortgage rate in the US has declined for 6 consecutive weeks, moving from its highest level since 2000 (7.80%) down to 7.00% California is likely to see a $68 billion deficit in its next fiscal year as income tax revenue plummets, according to the state’s budget adviser Markets : UST 10-Year Treasury Yield is fast approaching its 200D moving average - 4.02% WTI Crude Oil has fallen/tested/testing 200dma - 69.75$ >> .. lowest since June 29 .. on pace for its seventh straight weekly loss for the first time since November 2018.” DAX closed on all time highs 16'620 For equity markets, blackout period starts on Monday FXLAND : would agree with RB below >>> long #EURJPY is the most crowded position in the market at mom/still, weaker EU data (dovish ECB now) and BoJ YCC move was not on the card 4-6weeks ago..bit of a capitulation day yesterday, so wait to reload..! Nr 3. of the outrageous Saxo Predictions for 2024 The end of capitalism in the USA | Saxo Group (home.saxo) Summary: The US government is forced to increase fiscal spending exponentially amid the 2024 elections to keep the economy going and avoid social unrest. Due to lingering inflation pressures and foreign investors repatriating capital, demand for US Treasuries remains sluggish, provoking a spike in US Treasury yields. In a desperate attempt to normalise borrowing costs, the US government makes income from government bonds tax-free. Robin Brooks on X: "Biggest position in global FX markets - after many years of BoJ yield curve control (YCC) and a hawkish ECB that (wrongly) played up demand-led inflation - is long Euro / short Yen. Ending YCC and no demand-led inflation in the Euro zone are changing that. Big unwind is coming... https://t.co/4M8Sh9Pbmg" / X (twitter.com) Liz Ann Sonders on X: "In advance of tomorrow, note that payrolls don’t have to go negative in order for economy to be in recession (payrolls were positive in first month of GFC recession); also, negative payroll growth doesn’t necessarily equal recession (see right after recessions ended in ’02 & ’09) https://t.co/dJ6Egm7qCc" / X (twitter.com) Michael Pettis on X: "1/14 Chris Giles is absolutely right to say that when changes in the relative size of two economies are driven by changes in their currency values, there is very little economic meaning in those changes. https://t.co/LPSnLYYLa5 via @ft" / X (twitter.com) Elon Musk appeals dispute over SEC consent decree to US Supreme Court (yahoo.com) Rees-Mogg’s Somerset Capital to wind down after huge client redemptions (msn.com) Brexit impact! China’s Xi goes full Stalin with purge – POLITICO Phew! Jamie Dimon lashes out on crypto: 'If I was the government, I'd close it down' (cnbc.com) California Projects $68 Billion Shortfall on Income-Tax Plunge - Bloomberg Venezuela’s president orders creation of new state and map including land from Guyana (msn.com) zerohedge on X: "Guyana Situation Rapidly Deteriorates As Maduro Arrests Opposition Figures Amid Joint Military Drills With US https://t.co/7JdM0QaxtB" / X (twitter.com) Biden administration asserts power to seize drug patents (cnbc.com) U.S. layoffs jumped in November led by retail and tech, report shows (yahoo.com) #EURJPY - right on cue for ''lack of liquidity december sell off''

The Bank of Japan is in the process of summarizing 10 years of extreme monetary easing. During a workshop at BOJ headquarters on Monday, participants were presented with a report stating that liquidity in the bond market had "generally worsened" due to extreme monetary easing. The BOJ published the contents of the report on Wednesday BATS writes down $31.5 billion from value of U.S. cigarette brands - was always a matter of time till it happened Oil prices falling hard again, anyone want to suggest a date for 'end of cost of living crisis'? Walmart CEO says consumers may not be as resilient next year, even as deflation starts to show Developing potential conflict in South America - as Russia's ally, Venezuela, presses its claim on the Essequibo region of Guyana (note: Commonwealth member), Brazil has moved troops up in support of Guyana (but so far still in Brazil) In the opening round of the fourth primary debate on Wednesday, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie turned to his fellow candidates and implored them to go after the man who wasn’t there: Donald Trump HSBC Boosts Parental Leave for Employees in Hong Kong. Maternity leave raised to 20 weeks, paternity leave to 40 days US Senate Republicans block Ukraine, Israel aid bill over border dispute >>>>> when government split, as they 'have' to make choice on spending.. Muddy Waters is short Blackstone Mortgage Trust REIT China's surprise imports contraction sparks worries over demand The S&P 500 technology sector's relative strength versus the broad market is at its highest level since March 2000 Markets : Yields moved sharply lower on softer data, now ALL economists that were hawkish on rates 1% higher, now react and become all obviously bearish on inflation... >>> JGB's react overnight to BoJ incoming YCC tweak, pushing long-end yields higher overall on weak 30y bond auction - lowest bid/cover ratio since 2015 CROSSJPY's in play lower, finally! >> been a huge carry trade for a while, watch out Dec markets and liquidity (or lack of), NFP tomorrow could also bring some decent vol again! USDJPY - that same chart - below Equity markets 'fading', few Mag 7's struggling a little (crowded trade), so watch out below key short-term supports... SPX500 : reminder 4'550 is exactly where it was 2y ago - quite something, obviously a LOT more going on underneath and in various sectors since Crude lower again Obesity drugs backfire, causing global health crisis | Saxo Group (home.saxo) EU wealth tax and the end of U.S. capitalism: 'Outrageous predictions' (cnbc.com) BAT writes down $31.5 billion from value of U.S. cigarette brands | Reuters One reason why we've avoided this one...that huge goodwill on the books was always going to have to be written-off one day, it has now Ray Dalio on X: "You've heard the expression "no pain no gain." Psychologists have shown that the most powerful personal transformations come from experiencing the pain from mistakes that a person never wants to have again--known as "hitting bottom." So don't be hesitant to give people those… https://t.co/UU2G106KG4" / X (twitter.com) China’s Weak Trade Data Signals More Economic Pain to Come - Bloomberg World in new era of low growth and high interest rates, says BlackRock (telegraph.co.uk) Walmart CEO Doug McMillon talks about deflation (cnbc.com) AMD rolls out new rival to Nvidia’s AI chip (ft.com) Boris Johnson: I wasn’t properly warned about seriousness of Covid | Covid inquiry | The Guardian bless! Robert Jenrick resigns as immigration minister over Rwanda legislation - BBC News >>> "I think that Suella Braverman and Robert Jenrick's resignation and sackings have basically now morphed into a shadow leadership contest." Who won the final Republican debate? | The Independent (the-independent.com) Alabama GOP debate: Haley faces attacks as the candidate on the rise - POLITICO Latvia's Russian-speakers face loyalty test amid Ukraine war (msn.com) Russia-Ukraine war live: US senate blocks bill for further Ukraine aid (theguardian.com) Muddy Waters is short Blackstone Mortgage Trust REIT, Real Estate News, ET RealEstate (indiatimes.com) whaooo Volkswagen-commissioned audit finds no signs of forced labor at plant in China's Xinjiang region (qz.com) THAT USDJPY chart still - sub 145 USDJPY AREA and there could be some fire works and of course equivalent in CROSSJPY's..

U.S Labour market softening was the theme yesterday, with both JOLTs and ISM pointing in that direction >>> 4 of the past 5 JOLTS reports have been revised lower, when the Fed was hiking on misguided "strong" jobs data, the number of US Job Openings fell to 8.7 million in October, the fewest since March 2021. Gradual loosening of the labor market continues Jerome Powell: “It would be premature to conclude that we have achieved a sufficiently restrictive stance, or to speculate on when policy might ease." >>>> Market participants: Fed will start cutting rates in March 2024 & continue easing from there Saudi energy minister won't agree to fossil fuel phase-down - Record number of fossil fuel lobbyists get access to Cop28 climate talk "Adobe data showed a sharp increase in online discounting, with apparel prices falling 25% over the course of November, compared to -15.5% during November 2022" - GS As part of an agreement with the US Department of Justice, Switzerland's Pictet has admitted to helping clients evade taxes owed to the Internal Revenue Service and will pay a penalty The world’s largest iceberg is on the move Chief executives from eight of the largest U.S. banks are expected to warn federal lawmakers Wed that tougher regulation on lenders will have dire consequences for the economy German October factory orders fall 3.7% MoM (expected +0.2%), falling 7.3% YoY >>> Germany's factory orders have grown just -1- out of 20months on an annual basis >>> market is ramping up bets on the extent of monetary easing from the ECB in 2024, with money markets seeing/priced in 150 basis points of interest rate cuts through next year! Markets : DAX on all time highs, NIKKEI rallied again in Asia, while Chinese markets struggled still Crude prices softer, nearly down 20% since peak in Mid Sep >>> U.S. socks buyback also hit an all time high in November, black out period approaching now Equity : The 180 degree shift in US investor sentiment from bearish to bullish over the last 4 weeks was one of the biggest short-term swings on record Yields are falling, as data increasingly surprises/surprised to the downside, sometimes the simpliest explanation are the best A lot is now priced in for 2024, and now a few starting to agree : BlackRock's CIO Rieder says the Fed Funds rate is too restrictive today, sees mid-24 cut Nr 1. of the outrageous Saxo Predictions for 2024 : With oil at $150, Saudis buy Champions League franchise | Saxo Group (home.saxo) to engage a discussion! BlackRock's Rick Rieder doesn't believe the economy is falling off a cliff | Watch (msn.com) Bob Elliott on X: "Equity rally since nearby bottom in late Oct strongly driven by high growth / high beta companies and short covering. With a lot of the reversal behind us, raises questions on how we extend further here without more rates declines. https://t.co/ttuuJPNiZ5" / X (twitter.com) Saudi energy minister won't agree to fossil fuel phase-down (theedgesingapore.com) Record number of fossil fuel lobbyists get access to Cop28 climate talks | Cop28 | The Guardian Yellen says U.S. would be 'responsible for Ukraine's defeat' if aid fails in Congress | Reuters World's largest iceberg A23a is on the move, stoking climate concerns (cnbc.com) Green Christmas: How to have an ethical and guilt-free festive season | New Scientist The renewables business faces a make-or-break moment (economist.com) Recycling (glencore.com) Glencore is a major recycler of end-of-life electronics, lithium-ion batteries, and other critical metal-containing products. We have long been closing the loop for critical metals like copper, nickel, cobalt, zinc and precious metals. We are committed to responsibly sourcing the commodities the world needs to advance everyday life Tesla's cheapest EV will get more expensive in 2024 (qz.com) Swiss Bank Pictet Admits to Helping US Clients Dodge Taxes (finews.asia) Bear cancels Xmas parties, Globus brings in crisis PR firm - Inside Paradeplatz Christmas shopping: 'Buy now, pay later schemes a vicious cycle' - BBC News Call it for what it is, more debt, will only create more issues ging forward for folks Jamie Dimon, Other Big Bank CEOs Warn Congress About Tougher Regulations - Barron's (barrons.com) Timeline: Switzerland and the conflict in the Middle East - SWI swissinfo.ch WTI crude prices

ECB hawk Schnabel scraps more rate hikes after 'remarkable' inflation drop >>> validating market's recent moves and fwd pricing of cuts in 2024 ( some 1.25% of cuts priced in for 2024 already...they are just coming back to where markets are..) The New York Fed's measure of underlying inflation (the "multivariate core trend" rate) ticked down to 2.6% in October from 2.9% in Sept, This was the lowest reading since January 2021 Swiss bank Banque Pictet admits hiding $5.6 billion of Americans’ money from IRS UK announces rise in salary threshold for foreign workers’ visas Airbus might need state backing for new aircraft programme to replace A320, chief says, might bring back competitive/trade issues vs Boeing The Fed's balance sheet is back on April 2021 lows, down $1.15trn from peak in April 2022. Another $3.6trn of QT is required to unwind he massive 'covid-QE between march 2020 to 2022) Moody’s cut its outlook for Chinese sovereign bonds to negative, underscoring deepening global concerns about the level of debt in the world’s second largest economy In 2020, BlackRock chief executive Larry Fink put the world’s largest money manager squarely behind the cause of purpose-driven investing. Three years later, BlackRock is still betting big on the transition to a lower-carbon economy, but the $9.1tn money manager’s emphasis when it talks about sustainability and social issues has changed Zuckerberg and NVDA insiders selling a few shares U.S ISM Manufacturing PMI has been below 50 (in contraction) for 13 straight months, the longest down streak since 2008-09 Algorithms are biased. But humans are a lot more biased Elon Musk: Disney is "World's biggest example of go woke, go broke" Markets : Big Techs, Magnificent 7, no-one will dare calling a top last week, but.. Chinese Stocks have fallen to their lowest prices in 5 years and India's Stock Market Valuation hit $4 Trillion for the first time in history Relatively quiet Equity markets, although some weakness in Nasdaq, big 7's seen over the last 5-6 trading days, whether this is insider or tax related selling or both! it is pretty key into year-end (those big stocks have had a Huuge rally in 2023) USDollar - no real direction - CROSSJPY's slightly softer following forward rates 10's UST could drop to the key 4% area on a weak NFP Friday, after that one would think that a lot/enough/perhaps too much priced in for 2024 ? The end of the road - Saxo Outrageous Predictions 2024 | Saxo Group (home.saxo) Statement by Michele Bullock, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision | Media Releases | RBA Nick Timiraos on X: "The New York Fed's measure of underlying inflation (the "multivariate core trend" rate) ticked down to 2.6% in October from 2.9% in September This was the lowest reading since January 2021 https://t.co/84wzo4UMgK https://t.co/duqE47r20k" / X (twitter.com) Mark Zuckerberg Sells First Meta Shares in 2 Years After 172% Surge - Bloomberg Nvidia Insiders Unload Shares After 220% AI Rally (yahoo.com) Apple, Meta Platforms And 2 Other Stocks Insiders Are Selling (msn.com) Swiss bank Banque Pictet admits hiding Americans' income from IRS (cnbc.com) The real impact of the ESG backlash Elon Musk Once Again Takes A Dig At Disney, Other Advertisers: 'They Will Experience A Meaningful Decline In Distribution' (msn.com) PM Modi flags ‘beware of divisive agenda’ as cracks arise in INDIA bloc | Mint (livemint.com) Live updates: Israel-Hamas war, Gaza airstrikes, UN warns of 'apocalyptic' situation (cnn.com) Russia-Ukraine war at a glance: what we know on day 650 | Ukraine | The Guardian ECB hawk Schnabel scraps more rate hikes after 'remarkable' inflation drop | Reuters UK announces rise in salary threshold for foreign workers’ visas | Migration News | Al Jazeera Virgin Galactic stock tanks after Richard Branson signals no more investments (yahoo.com) Cost of capital has increased... Gold reaches record high today near $2,100 per ounce. Here's what's behind the surge. - CBS News >>> pretty bad set-back on daily charts yesterday though Bitcoin has surpassed $41,000 for the first time since April 2022. What's behind the price surge? (qz.com) Airbus might need state backing for new aircraft programme to replace A320, chief says France puts country on high alert regarding bird flu | Reuters Want Less-Biased Decisions? Use Algorithms. (hbr.org) Hang Seng - just whaoo - no love there ! be opportunistic ? slowly but surely ?