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The current market consensus is for inflation heading towards the Fed's target of 2%, so definitely no more FED hikes, therefore we get a nice soft landing, with no recession/small one only maybe, which means the FED will cut soon and all will be well and good for the economy (all this should be put relative to what is priced in already - say 150bps of cuts starting in March >>> got ever so slightly pushed back last few days ahead of CPI this afternoon (NFP was stronger, ISM services weaker so OCO), before Covid - SPX500 was 3'250 - currently testing the 4'810 area highs of early January 2022 U.S primary : Nikki Haley has momentum Fed's Williams (A list) said monetary policy is tight enough to nudge inflation down to the Fed’s 2% goal but policymakers need more evidence before they can “dial back” interest rates The federal budget deficit totalled $509 billion in the first quarter of fiscal year 2024, the Congressional Budget Office estimates. That amount is $87 billion more than the deficit recorded during the same period last fiscal year: Although revenues this year were $83 billion (or 8 percent) higher, outlays rose more—by $170 billion (or 12 percent) >>> a 2trn annualized deficit in an economy at full employment.... The wealthiest 10% of U.S. households now own nearly 93% of the stock market/Axios >> it will continue as long as profits are privatized and losses are socialized! Blinken: There will be consequences for continued attacks in the Red Sea Maersk switches liner service from Panama Canal to land bridge SEC approves first spot BTC ETF's The U.N. Security Council on Wednesday demanded Yemen's Houthis immediately end attacks on ships in the Red Sea and cautioned against escalating tensions while implicitly endorsing a U.S.-led task force that has been defending vessels Big tech is sliding down Glassdoor's ranking of top employers FT - Largest U.S banks set to log sharp rise in bad loans, Citigroup at risk of quarterly loss after charges come in far higher than initially disclosed Markets : Eagerly awaiting U.S CPI, expectations nudged up from 0.2 to 0.3% lately, it's when it all looks rosy and bullish that you should consider a hedge #timeforahedgingstrategy Bond auction this week also been pretty good, nothing much to worry about anything, same as above! SPX500 testing those highs from very early 2021 around 4800+ USDollar mostly bid vs JPY only so far, other pairs pretty stable-nothing much to see here, the USD bulls wants to print sub 1.0850 EUR, sub 0.665 AUD, CAD 1.3450+ CNH 7.20+, CHF 0.8550+ to continue with USD higher (bonds and therefore risk key as usual) The largest week of earnings is Jan. 29th through Feb 2nd, when 32% of the S&P 500 by weight will report (such as AAPL, AMZN, META, and GOOGL). Exp are for SPX quarterly EPS to grow +4.3% y/y, driven by REITs, Utilities, Comm Services, and Info Tech. While SPX 2023e css estimates have remained largely unch since June at $221, css is exp +11% EPS growth in ’24 to $245. NDX estimates have continued to move higher after a beat & raise from many Mag-7 names last qtr (only TSLA missed on EPS), as well as Semis seeing EPS estimates increase in anticipation of positive inflection in pricing after a period of peak inventories. InteractivePolls on X: "📊 2024 New Hampshire GOP Primary Trump: 39% (-3) Haley: 32% (+12) Christie: 12% (-2) Ramaswamy: 8% (=) DeSantis: 5% (-4) -- Undecided: 5% [Change vs November] CNN/UNH | 919 LV | January 4-8 https://t.co/CGjdG9YmiE https://t.co/4AschyPpMg" / X (twitter.com) SEC approves first spot bitcoin ETFs in boost to crypto advocates (ft.com) OK it's done - finally But Apple pulls Binance and other crypto apps from India App Store (qz.com) And don't forget What are ETFs? (qz.com) ETFs: Easy trade, easy short Citigroup at risk of quarterly loss after disclosing charges (cnbc.com) Monthly Budget Review: December 2023 | Congressional Budget Office (cbo.gov) Australia trade balance trounces expectations in Nov as imports tumble By Investing.com China and India can't wean themselves off coal anytime soon (cnbc.com) UN Security Council demands Houthis stop Red Sea attacks | Reuters Holger Zschaepitz on X: "Ownership of equities suggests that US democratic shareholder capitalism is more myth than reality: While it's true that a record high 58% of American households do own stocks via mutual funds or as individual shares, in the aggregate the amount of stock most of these folks own… https://t.co/e8RJ3bCoiT" / X (twitter.com) Big tech fell on Glassdoor's 2024 ranking of top companies (qz.com) Maersk switches liner service from Panama Canal to land bridge | Seatrade Maritime (seatrade-maritime.com) Japan's Fujitsu faces questioning over British Post Office scandal | Reuters It took 15+ years... OpenAI launches GPT store for AI tools (qz.com) Six reasons why Switzerland is one of the most globalised countries - SWI swissinfo.ch Politics in Paris? Prime Minister or not, France is fed up (blick.ch) The media, including Blick, are making a big deal out of it. A 34-year-old prime minister, the youngest in the history of the Fifth Republic. But the French? Are you passionate about this appointment behind closed doors, very Parisian? Unsure. Geography Facts That Will Have You Questioning Your Place On Earth - Explored Planet Bet a few of those facts you didn't know !!? Vestas blade snaps at RWE offshore wind farm in UK North Sea | Windpower Monthly

SEC says it did not yet approve bitcoin ETF, X account was compromised, 2 FA ??.. >>> going to be a year full of mis and disinformation, AI pictures and so on ! particularly during this biggest ever democratic year, looking at the already 'nasty' Biden vs Trump too, it's going to be a very busy year for media.. Antony Blinken made another push for Israel to limit civilian casualties in Gaza and sought to focus on its relationships with Arab nations. There are “real opportunities” to build post-war ties that will help keep Israel secure, the US official told Foreign Minister Israel Katz in Tel Aviv European unemployment drops to a record low of 6.4% in Nov Norway poised to open vast ocean area to controversial deep-sea mining Apple faces epochal moment with looming antitrust scrutiny Saudi Arabia sells $12 billion of debt in its largest borrowing abroad since 2017 China satellite launch causes pre-election political storm in Taiwan US credit card balances hit a new record as delinquencies rise in the background German train drivers start 3-day strike, bringing rail travel to near halt Gabriel Attal, nicknamed ‘baby Macron’, becomes youngest ever French prime minister at 34 Markets : NIkkei up, HSI down (the or at least one of the contrarian trade for 2024 is China eq), other equity markets awaiting U.S CPI, Speculators have built the largest Nasdaq long position in history according to CFTC data U.S NatGas (was on the lows) but has now rallied nearly 50% since mid Dec USDJPY regained 145 pretty easily, USD a little firmer ahead of U.S CPI, a slightly firmer print is the risk with positioning long risk, bonds and short USD still from Dec 10's UST' 4% - 3.80-4.10 range last few weeks BTC market will get its SEC approval, most likely, but the ramp up is probably most likely already done - let's see the aftermath/price action of the ETF approval SEC says it did not yet approve bitcoin ETF, X account was compromised (cnbc.com) Quel joke Bob Elliott on X: "Its the US economy quietly accelerating? A range of high frequency data suggests that there has been a notable pick up in the last few months, in line with stimulation equity market rise & rate falls. Thread. Mortgage apps improving sharply: https://t.co/SwqToAnMj3" / X (twitter.com) China Stocks, Not UK Equities, Could Be the Contrarian Trade of 2024 - Bloomberg Middle East crisis live: US and UK ‘shoot down’ one of biggest Houthi airstrikes in Red Sea (theguardian.com) Red Sea attacks: retailers rush to avoid delays to spring collections | Reuters Norway poised to open vast ocean area to controversial deep-sea mining (cnbc.com) Apple faces epochal moment with looming antitrust scrutiny (yahoo.com) Saudi Arabia Issues $12 Billion Bond as EM Nations Load Up - Bloomberg Even rich countries love or need debt.. China satellite launch causes pre-election political storm in Taiwan - SWI swissinfo.ch Ecuador: Gunmen storm television studio live on air - BBC News US credit card balances hit a new record as delinquencies rise in the background (qz.com) Global economy will slow for a third straight year in 2024, World Bank predicts (qz.com) 2024 Economy Is Looking a Whole Lot Like the 1970s, Says Jamie Dimon (businessinsider.com) not the best record on major market calls...but there you go Bär-Bosse: 600 Millionen verpulvert, Offsite im Chedi – Inside Paradeplatz White House orders Cabinet protocol review after Austin hospitalization | The Hill What a bizarre set of circumstances MDMA and Psilocybin Are Approved as Medicines for the First Time | WIRED The secret life of Jimmy Zhong, who stole – and lost – more than $3b (cnbc.com) Gabriel Attal, nicknamed ‘baby Macron’, becomes youngest ever French prime minister at 34 – as it happened | Europe | The Guardian EURUSD rally since mid October (general USD sell.-off) in check - all about CPI, BONDS!

Switzerland will for the second time in a row not see any payout from its central bank, as the soaring franc counteracts gains on capital, SNB expects an annual loss of around CHF3 billion ($3.5 billion) for last year (that's better than the 132bn loss in 2022) Germany: Farmers protest causing nationwide disruptions Samsung expects 35% profit drop in Q4, due to weak demand, and NVDA makes new highs yesterday $520! >> NVDA market cap was up $65bn yesterday, that's more than they sales over the last 12months and about 250x more than they made last quarter BlackRock set a 0.3% fee for its proposed BTC ETF, much lower than expected, big firms undercutting each other on fees SPX500 2024 targets, UBS revises it higher from 4'700 to 5'000, RBC from 5K to 5'100 ECB is unlikely to lower borrowing costs before the summer, according to Governing Council member Boris Vujcic FED's Bowman - rate cuts eventually warranted as inflation falls, shocking revelation!..also adds to cover her bets that she remains willing to hike if inflation progress stalls >>> GOLDMAN: “.. We expect that core #PCE inflation declined further in December 2023 and will continue to decline to an even greater extent throughout 2024. We forecast core PCE inflation of 2.9% in December 2023 and 2.2% in December 2024.”, and finally Bostic said inflation has come down more than expected, with prices on a path to reaching the FOMC’s 2% target, but he doesn’t expect a rate cut until the third quarter Apple’s Vision Pro AR headset is hitting the market for US customers next month, taking on headset-market leader Meta German Industrial Production down 0.7% in Nov, in downtrend since 2017, production is about 10-15% lower than at peak 6+years ago Five Spanish regions have announced the reintroduction of rules making the use of face masks compulsory in health facilities following a spike in flu and COVID-19 cases over the festive season, good pre-emptive move - hopefully! GS's Currie : 'Demand for raw materials is at record levels, inventories are low, and spare production capacity is largely "exhausted. This is just classic 'own commodities.'"' Emmanuel Macron is expected to name his 34-year old education minister as France's prime minister after pushing out Elisabeth Borne Markets: NIKKEI makes a 34y high, 1989!, meanwhile in China, local stock markets on 5y lows, still looking for a green day in 2024 Saxo : 2024 (could become the) Year of the metals.. EURUSD 1.10/1.11 remains big resistance, U.S CPI will be key tomorrow, beware UST auctions, even if it's a known known for most apparently. Equity markets : will remian volatile, up and down, reacting to anything possible, it's the usual Jan price action ! overall valuation are stretched overall, always looking for markets to create attractive opportunities for our clients! UST's, 10s 4% awaiting U.S CPI tomorrow and many more Fed speakers who don't really matter big picture, but will get the likesofCNBC all exited on the day Quarterly Outlook Q1 2024: What happened to the future? | Saxo Group (home.saxo) Commodities: The year of the metals | QO1 2024 | Saxo Group (home.saxo) Goldman veteran Jeff Currie remains bullish on commodities this year - MINING.COM SNB skips second payout in row as record loss haunts central bank - SWI swissinfo.ch Spot Bitcoin ETF Issuers in Fee War Ahead of SEC Approval (cryptonews.com) Samsung Expects 35% Profit Drop for Q4 Due to Weak Demand (industryleadersmagazine.com) Nvidia RTX 4060 Super, RTX 4070 Ti Super, RTX 4080 Super announced (cnbc.com) Apple's $3500 Vision Pro MR headset will be in stores soon (qz.com) Apple's Vision Pro headset to go on sale in U.S. starting Feb. 2 | Reuters IPhone Sales in China to Fall Double Digits, Jefferies Says (yahoo.com) ECB Probably Won’t Cut Rates Before the Summer, Vujcic Says (yahoo.com) Javier Blas on X: "CHART OF THE DAY: Europe has experienced a very mild winter so far, reducing heating demand. The current cold snap won't change the outlook. In heating-degree days, the region is tracking nearly 20% below the 30-year average. My @Opinion column is here: https://t.co/x13hcYlLLo https://t.co/MfVssGvxL1" / X (twitter.com) The Biggest Global Risks for Markets in 2024 - Barron's (barrons.com) The return of 'some inflation' Russia-Ukraine war live: Ukrainian air force says it is running short of anti-aircraft missiles (theguardian.com) German farmers blockade Berlin with tractors in subsidy row - BBC News Germany Sticks to Subsidy Cuts as Farmer Protests Block Roads - Bloomberg French President begins political reset, Macron aims to relaunch his government | World News | WION | Watch (msn.com) Electric vehicle sales growth slows in Switzerland - SWI swissinfo.ch ‘Boris bolt’: LBC bolted down guest seat to stop former PM dodging cameras | Boris Johnson | The Guardian Swiss to vote on raising retirement age to 66: a visionary idea or an unwelcome plan? - SWI swissinfo.ch Bridge dilemma captures divide over China in Taiwan elections | Reuters Portugal's revamped golden visa scheme to boost investment funds | Reuters

Week ahead : U.S, Japan, Australia and China CPI, banks kick off earnings season and Central bank speakers coming out of their Christmas holidays in force! Start of 2024, classic partial unwind of what FOMO'ed in late 2023, UST's lower, leading techs/QQQ lower and USD firmer, positioning still is very much short USDollars, Short bonds and long risk, beware stronger data, higher headline inflation, like this morning in CH Swiss CPI 1.7%, vs 1.5% expected, not good for markets if this is a sign elsewhere >>> ''a return of inflation'', meaning it doesn't go as low as many think and thus the 6 prices cuts from FED already priced by markets are misplaced and March is too early (relative to current data), June more likely U.S : Congressional leaders reach $1.59 trillion deal on top-line spending, pave the way for deal to fund the government>>> cutting the budget of the only department they needed to raise ! taxes .. election year! JP Morgan warn on 'boiling frog' US$34 trillion debt - could easily become unsustainable Goods prices have been a big disinflationary pressure over the last year which has brought aggregate inflation figures down substantially, this is beginning to reverse over the last 2-3 weeks with freight up anywhere between 50 to 100% depending on the route U.S NPP headline slightly stronger, with 71K down revisions on previous months Fed's Logan : "“So, given the rapid decline of the ON RRP, I think it’s appropriate to consider the parameters that will guide a decision to slow the runoff of our assets. In my view, we should slow the pace of runoff as ON RRP balances approach a low level.” ISM services activity drops sharply in December, with employment at lowest since 2020 It's only week 2, long way to go, and it was ''all overbought, Dec FOMO etc'' but there you are : 2024 just experienced its worst cross-asset sell-off to start a year since at least 2003 Dear contrarians.... Long "Magnificent 7" and short Chinese shares are the two most overcrowded trades in the market right now'' IPhone sales in China to fall double digits, Jefferies Says Musk’s drug use concerns Tesla, SpaceX Leaders, WSJ Says China sanctions 5 US defense companies in response to US sanctions and arms sales to Taiwan >> tit for tat ! Markets : APPL 200dma is right around here $181 - it matters, either way. Wedbush think AAPL can be a $4trn market cap! >>> has AAPL become a China tech proxy ? UST 10's 4.05% again (4.10 or so highs Friday post NFP, 3.95 after ISM) USdollar ticking higher, risk of further short-covering, UST's always the first tell ! SPX500 4'650 key level to hold for the bulls, it's all pretty systematic, so watch AAPL and SPX500, QQQ and in particular bonds, U.S CPI key ! Commodity weekly: Bumpy start to 2024 | Saxo Group (home.saxo) U.S. opposes displacement of Palestinians, Blinken says | Reuters Middle East crisis live: Blinken to meet Saudi crown prince as he warns Palestinians ‘must not be pressed to leave Gaza’ (theguardian.com) ISM services activity drops sharply in December, with employment at lowest since 2020 (yahoo.com) Congressional leaders reach $1.59 trillion deal on top-line spending, pave the way for deal to fund the government (msn.com) The $34 trillion mountain of national debt is a 'boiling frog' situation for the US economy, JPMorgan warns (msn.com) Fed’s Logan backs first slowing, then gradually ending, balance-sheet runoff (msn.com) Fed always love raising hope of end of QT, it's an election year after all, but what about inflation risk reappearing-not going down further as quick as priced in? Forget Rates, Now Worry About the Fed Unwinding Its Balance Sheet (yahoo.com) IPhone Sales in China to Fall Double Digits, Jefferies Says - Bloomberg China sanctions US defence firms over Taiwan sales (msn.com) The firms are BAE Systems Land and Armament, Alliant Techsystems, AeroVironment, Viasat and Data Link Solutions China Risks Triggering New Trade War With Xi Jinping's Latest Economic Plan - Bloomberg The S&P 500 could crash by 30%, a recession is likely underway, and interest rates might not fall before summer, market prophet says (msn.com) No advocating it, but worth a read nonetheless, clearly, IMHO, the market has been too hasty looking for rates cuts, too much priced in, but we shall see, recession or not etc, goodinflation/prices back up etcetc.. Chinese shipper Cosco reportedly stops trips to Israel amid Red Sea tensions (cnbc.com) Elon Musk’s Drug Use Concerns Tesla, SpaceX Leaders, WSJ Says - Bloomberg Boeing 737 Max failure on Alaska Air flight invites renewed scrutiny (cnbc.com) Michael Pettis on X: "1/8 Important Bloomberg article on worsening global trade constraints. It is becoming more and more likely that world moves towards a manufacturing over-production crisis. Given the current structure of its economy, China effectively... https://t.co/ythyy5zaKi via @economics" / X (twitter.com) Moment of Truth: Is Bitcoin Finally Becoming Socially Acceptable? (finews.asia) Surgeon who carried out Europe’s first liver transplant dies aged 93 | Health | The Guardian AUDUSD - other USD charts fairly similar, USDJPY as discussed last week, USDCHF trying, EURFUSD topped, anything sub 1.0850 and more troubles for EURUSD long etc

After the floodings and the wind, snow and freezing temperature coming next week to southern europe >>> Finnish power prices surge to an all-time high today NFP : employment matters to FED form here on, stronger/firmer data will upset the Q4 20023 consensus further.. (long QQQ and bonds, short USD) - median exp 170K for this afternoon (range 80k to 225k) Global freight rate for containers has surged about 60% this week #shipping companies back in focus finally! White House says Russia used missiles from North Korea to strike Ukraine UK election likely in H2 2024, November ? Investors poured $123 billion into cash funds in the week through Jan. 3, the largest ever to start a year: BofA, EPFR data. This comes as money market fund assets climb to a record $6 trillion. US high-yield bonds have sold off at the fastest pace since March, when traders were worried about a banking-market collapse. Spreads have widened by nearly a half a percentage point since Dec. 28, the fastest pace since March 16 Markets : Dec 2023 FOMO trades been challenged soonest we started the new year, as discussed plenty lately, way overdone on QQQ, rates and probably USD too. 150bps priced in for Fed in 2024 is a lot.. any stronger/former data and bonds will sell-off again, as we saw his week SPX500 key support 4'650 area, best hold or else, QQQ is the lead after UST's USDJPY easily through 145 again, other usd pairs at risk of catching up, USDCHF looks a little too low! been asleep, back to 0.9100/0.9200 in Q1 ? on a decent rates moves , anything possible, IMHO market stretched/short usd Eurozone December preliminary CPI +2.9% vs +3.0% y/y expected SaxoCIO on X: "The Magnificent Seven is not the only concentration America should worry about https://t.co/jBJF04BofG via @financialtimes Critical piece by Tett - in election year... where 92,5% of stock market owned by less than 10% of population - who then really cares about "stock effect"" / X (twitter.com) Shipping Rates Soar on Red Sea Diversions - Bloomberg Sweden breaks new cold record as cold spell continues (thelocal.se) Destruction in Gaza and floods in Europe: photos of the day – Thursday | News | The Guardian Middle East crisis live: Israel to continue war with ‘new combat approach’ until Hamas dismantled, defence minister says (theguardian.com) Live updates: Latest news on Russia and the war in Ukraine (cnbc.com) White House says Russia used missiles from North Korea to strike Ukraine | Reuters The war in Gaza may widen. The Biden admin is getting ready for it. - POLITICO North Korea fires artillery shells towards South's border island - BBC News Venezuela says troops will stay deployed until British military vessel leaves waters off Guyana | The Independent Few hot spots around the world Rishi Sunak may call general election for November 14, says top political expert Sir John Curtice | Evening Standard Google Just Disabled Cookies for 30 Million Chrome Users. Here’s How to Tell If You’re One of Them. (gizmodo.com) Martha Stewart Talks Cannabis And Working With Snoop Dogg: We Enjoy ‘Baking’ (forbes.com) Criminal conspiracy: slowly joining the dots – Post Office Scandal What a horrible, horrible story and what these folks had to endure, absolutely shocking How BYD grew from a phone battery maker to EV giant taking on Tesla (cnbc.com) Putin offers easier path to citizenship for foreigners who join Russian military  | The Hill Why Biden's support among Hispanics is tanking — here's a hint: the border crisis (nypost.com) Outrage after angry farmers attempt to storm ferry with German Vice Chancellor aboard (thelocal.de) NASDAQ - more corrective action likely, all about bonds and data if stronger! stronger data no good to QQQ

Crypto tumbled yesterday, was some chatters SEC holding off on BTC ETF decision FOMC minutes, you could take anything in there to support your bias, but FED will be reluctant to cut too soon, high for a little longer, employment is key >>> "participants viewed the policy rate as likely at or near its peak for this tightening cycle, though they noted that the actual policy path will depend on how the economy evolves" and "reaffirmed that it would be appropriate for policy to remain at a restrictive stance for some time until inflation was clearly moving down sustainably"...and ahead of NFP : “Several participants noted the risk that, if labor demand were to weaken substantially further, the labor market could transition quickly from a gradual easing to a more abrupt downshift in conditions.” /Thread from Timiraos below interesting China Caixin services firmer, while JPN PMI manufacturing data deeper into contraction (delayed YCC decision..??) and UK Dec's final services 53.4 (52.7 prelim) China's ’s Workers Suffer Biggest Drop in Hiring Salaries on Record/BBG, PBOC balance-sheet has increased by nearly $600bn last 4months.. to $6.2trn #KWEB US Factory Gauge Shows 14th Month of Shrinking Activity, ISM yesterday showed that the grand total of 5.6% of purchasing managers are experiencing any growth >>> many describe the U.S economy as very strong, because it is running on biblical amount of debt/deficit, which is 6.3% of GDP, this has never happened other than after WWII and during covid.. Markets : Russell hitting the 21dma and the trend line that has been in place since Oct lows. RSI goes from extremely overbought to the least overbought since mid Nov, just like that in 2days... SPX500 4'650/70 area of support is KEY support for the bulls Crude prices beginning to react to risk of MidEast supply fears..(shipping doing well !) CROSSJPY's correcting higher still, together with USDJPY breaking up through key 142.50 area Oil Prices Rise on Middle East Supply Fears (msn.com) Russia-Ukraine war live: Russian hackers inside Ukraine’s biggest telecoms company ‘since at least May’ (theguardian.com) Japan Dec factory activity extends declines on market uncertainty- PMI (msn.com) Bond yields surging to highest level in decades: Jim Bianco (cnbc.com) That is certainly not on Mr market's radar Nick Timiraos on X: "The latest Jolts report suggests job turnover continued to cool in November Openings fell below 9 million using a three-month moving average, the lowest in 2½ years There were 1.4 openings for every unemployed person, down from 1.8 a year earlier https://t.co/OyExnUp1rz https://t.co/crw0SLYc0p" / X (twitter.com) China's BYD is rivaling Tesla in size. Can it also match its global reach? (qz.com) China Workers See Biggest Drop in Hiring Salaries on Record - Bloomberg China conducts patrols in South China Sea amid ongoing run-ins | Reuters China's housing inventory may take more than 10 years to correct: economist (cnbc.com) Satori Fund's Dan Niles Names Amazon, Meta Top Stocks To Own In 2024 (msn.com) >>> Niles likes our contrarian long China ! #SHCOMP #KWEB #tradeidea Crypto News Today: Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst Seyffart Puts the Record Straight (fxempire.com) >>> risk is market has been front running those ETF's.. ''hook them in then pull the rug?''..surely not (for the record I have no real view about them other than 'own 5% of your portfolio' for ever and leave it alone).. Analysts Weigh-In On Spot Bitcoin ETF Rejection Report, Maintain Jan. 8-10 Approval Timeline | IBTimes Zuckerberg Sold $428 Million of Meta Stock In Last Two Months - Bloomberg Thousands of doctors in Britain walk off the job in their longest-ever strike (qz.com) SpaceX illegally fired workers critical of Elon Musk, US labor agency says (yahoo.com) USDJPY pretty clear

The TFSE 100 turns 40 today, there was the FT 30 and the Stock exchange 100.. >>> after the huge rally since early Nov 2023, watch the QQQ possible reversal, bonds leading the charge (and USD long stretched..) Fed's Barkin is the 1st speaker in 2024 and FOMC minutes to focus on tonight BBG-"China injected nearly $50 billion worth of low-cost funds into policy-oriented banks last month, suggesting the central bank may be ramping up financing for housing and infrastructure projects to support the economy." Europe’s top securities regulator warns on risks from leveraged trades. Esma’s Verena Ross says efforts to monitor and curb bets that use borrowed money need to go further US reaches deal to extend military presence at Qatar base The Incredibly Ballooning US Govt Debt Spikes by $1trn in about 3months to $34trn, or $12 trn higher than 5years ago...Interest payments threatening to eat up 50% of tax receipts...Congress ? "The fourth quarter has seen factories reduce employment at a pace not seen since 2009 barring only the early pandemic lockdown months" - PMI/US US was top LNG exporter in 2023 as hit record levels Markets : FX positioning : as bonds and risk rallied (QQQ lead), market increased its 'short usd' positioning into year-end >>> price action yesterday pretty clear, soonest rates/bonds moves higher, UST's clear lead as usual Already some headlines of 'worst start to the year since xx' for bonds and equity VIX had an average of about 16 in 2023 - least volatile year for US equity since 2019 Beware 'January reversals' particularly when previous Q4 was so driven by FOMO and year-end (forced) rebalancing The accidental icon: The fascinating history of how the FTSE 100 was created 40 years ago today (msn.com) FOMC meeting minutes, job openings, earnings: What to watch (yahoo.com) Maersk halts Red Sea shipping until further notice after Houthi militant attack (cnbc.com) US was top LNG exporter in 2023 as hit record levels (msn.com) Outrageous Predictions 2024 Geneva | Saxo Bank (home.saxo) and Outrageous Predictions 2024 Zurich | Saxo Bank (home.saxo) >>> please let me know if you'd like to join - thanks Robin Brooks on X: "Markets are focused on how Germany is the "sick man of Europe," but recent Euro zone weakness is actually concentrated in France (top right) and Italy (bottom left). That's where manufacturing (blue) and services (red) sentiment are tumbling. Sickness in Europe is broad-based... https://t.co/4yx4X2Q0jq" / X (twitter.com) Barchart on X: "Wild Stat: 92.5% of stocks are owned by the Wealthiest 10% of Americans. This is an all-time high equity ownership concentration. https://t.co/w0ef7KQz9E" / X (twitter.com) Israeli drone kills deputy Hamas chief in Beirut | Reuters US reaches deal to extend military presence at Qatar base -source | Reuters Good stuff there : The Outlook 2024: Stronger For Longer (unlimitedfunds.com) ''''So while it looks like stronger for longer is mostly likely to dominate, the our advice is to stay flexible.  If ‘24 is anything like ‘23, it’s going to be another volatile time for generating alpha.''' yups! I'll go for that - few very interesting point and charts there Europe’s top securities regulator warns on risks from leveraged trades (ft.com) Here are your SPX500 year-end forecast from major players! Morgan Stanley 4'500 JPM 4'200 BoA 5'000 Deutsche Bank 5'100 Oppenheimer 5'200 Citi 5'100 Cantor 4'400 Wells 4'600 BMO 5'100 GS 5'100 SocGen 4'750 Barcx 4'800 UBS 4'850 China Injects $50 Billion Into Policy Banks in Stimulus Push - Bloomberg China’s Rongsheng Petrochemical, Saudi Aramco to buy stake in each other’s units - Global Times Brazil's economy improves during President Lula's first year back, but a political divide remains (qz.com) READ: Harvard President Claudine Gay’s resignation letter (msn.com) NASDAQ - been on a pretty crazy move since November - reversing - all about bonds and USD - bonds lead

Wishing you & yours a happy, healthy and prosperous new year, hope this daily helps achieve some of your goals Starting 2024, the big question for markets is whether the FED (with 3 cuts in 2024) or the market (with 6cuts priced in for the year) is right, bonds markets which have been 'the' leading driver in 2023, will remain the key in 2024! Red Sea tensions up a notch or two, Iran, Houthis and a lot of misinformation, tensions rising though, re-routing of ships in the Red Sea will impact the longer it goes on, with chain stress, rising freight prices and energy prices (risk inflation higher), ongoing developments in Taiwan, Russia/Ukraine, Venezuela/Guyana and Israel will remain in focus Israel-Gaza war live: IDF indicates war will stretch on throughout 2024 UK's food price inflation decelerated to 6.7% in December – the lowest level since June 2022 and down from 7.7% in November Wage inflation in late 2023, effectively delayed (risk of) recession Why is the EU’s decision on accession so important—and what does it mean for Ukraine and Russia? A Year of Political Chicken Markets : Contrarians might want to have a look at Chinese stocks in 2024 #HSI, on expectations of big stimulus coming up and an eventual economic recovery, sell bonds and rebuy USD again Equity markets : most financial institutions now expect markets to go up in 2024, when the tightening cycle is over, remember those same experts and investment bank's predictions from same time last year ? 8 out of 10 institutions were predicting SPX500 between 3700/4200 by end of 2023... UST's are the key to all/most of it, reading invest house research and BofA FM survey in Dec, seems everyone is/got long bonds again ? USDollar weakened into year-end, as bonds and risk rallied, beware a reverse Jan reaction This is what is required for that contrarian #SHCOMP #KWEB view ' China needs fiscal firepower to spark equity revival (robeco.com) "The New Era for Portfolio Managers" - Inside Paradeplatz Tuesday briefing: Will the Red Sea crisis lead to a wider Middle East conflict? | World news | The Guardian Israel's top court strikes down key legal reform (rte.ie) Putin's military unleashes wave of rush hour air strikes on Kyiv as Ukrainians return to work in New Year | Evening Standard Suspected Chinese Balloon Flies Directly Over Taiwan (newsweek.com) Venezuela says troops will stay deployed until British military vessel leaves waters off Guyana (msn.com) Ukrainian EU membership would be a strategic masterstroke (prospectmagazine.co.uk) China December factory contraction deepens, more stimulus on the cards | Reuters Japan quake toll hits 30 as rescuers race to find survivors - Nikkei Asia What an awful start to their year Swiss voters to decide on foie gras and fur imports - SWI swissinfo.ch A Year of Political Chicken by Harold James - Project Syndicate (project-syndicate.org) BYD produced more than 3 million cars in 2023, set to beat Tesla (cnbc.com) China-India trade tensions may continue in 2024, but Beijing doesn’t want to rock the boat | South China Morning Post (scmp.com) Have a great start to 2024, whishing you and yours a healthy, jolly and prosperous new year team PVM

Biggest message of 2023 ? >>> Markets have a tendency to not follow the script, consensus can be dangerous...so many financial forecasters and banks come up with consensus views that end up being totally mistimed/wrong (including central banks that hiked too late, and now too much - probably), historical data has its limitations in today's world of QE/QT/BTFP/ODTE options/Fed reverse Repo and so on and central bank's very heavy involvement, probabilities : don't always follow old formulas anymore, lived experiences from long while ago are always useful, but can be a major burden, stay flexible.. >>> few 'unexpected' examples in 2023 : Mag 7 vs other 493 SPX names, bond market round trip, house prices and rates up, equity markets rallied on higher rates, China markets vs EMG, commodities, lithium, CHF and many other assets didn't do what most experts said they were going to do in 2023 ...!... >>> valuations are the best way to go about it, we stick to our valuation models, best medium to long-term results for our investor clients With this in mind, this is where it could possibly go wrong, ie against current consensus in 2024 : Fewer cuts from Fed than market has priced in (2x as much as Fed dots), U.S economy goes into recession and/or earnings actually slowdown (vs expectations that are again at record, looking for 11% up) Maine joins Colorado in finding Trump ineligible for primary ballot. California declines to block Trump from 2024 ballot Romania and Bulgaria are expected to join the EU’s border-free Schengen area in March The stopwatch for a diplomatic solution is running out,’ Israeli minister Benny Gantz has warned as fears of a wider war in the Middle East grow (yet crude prices a little softer last few days) Norges Bank announces less daily 'sales' of NOK from Jan 2024 30y U.S mortgage rates are now lower than at the start of 2023! The outperformance if U.S vs global equities ends the year pretty much on ALL time highs (chart available from BofA FM survey) Investment Managers continue to scoop up stocks at breakneck pace as the NAAIM Exposure Index hits its highest level in more than 2 years (playing catch up), with more than 76% of SPX500 stocks now trading above their 200dma's, which is also highest in 2years Chinese smartphone titan Xiaomi unveils its first EV in a $10 billion bet to rival Tesla and Porsche >>> China already produces EVs only at over 40 factories, over 100 others jointly with ice’s, has huge competition coming for europe and RoW 2023 was the hottest year on record, with November being the most abnormally hot month on record Over the last 2months we've had the following happening : -Markets added some 150bps of rate cuts in 2024 -The 10y UST note yield dropped some 120bps -The average 30y mortgage rates dropped about 130bps -SPX500 is up 16% - other 'rate sensitive' sectors and QQQ up more -USD index is down about 7% >>>>> And this is with core inflation that is still 2x the Fed's 2% inflation target >>> is this what the FED 'wanted'..? risk is that markets went too far too fast last 2months Federal Reserve bets on smooth landing even as economists anticipate a bumpy ride (ft.com) everyone wants a smooth landing King dollar seen vulnerable in 2024 if Fed pivots | Reuters Foreign exchange transactions in January 2024 (norges-bank.no) Confiscating Russian assets would be ‘cataclysm’ for dollar – Nobel Prize winner - The Press United Ten killed as Russia hits Ukrainian cities with huge aerial barrage | World News | Sky News not ending the year in a nicer way! Can China get its economic miracle back on track in 2024? | Reuters Xiaomi Unveils First EV, SU7, With Ambition to Be China’s Porsche or Tesla - Bloomberg The Long View on X: "Chinese megacap tech is priced like energy in late 2020. It is widely viewed as uninvestible due to existential risks over government interference. But that view is squarely at odds with company fundamentals." / X (twitter.com) Where is democracy headed in 2024? Trump may have the final word | Reuters A tax increase, LGBTQ+ youth protections and more sick leave highlight California's new laws in 2024 | AP News Good lord! just whaoo Beachgoers swept away as huge wave crashes over wall in California - BBC News SNB doesn't want to be blamed for the sinking of CS - Inside Paradeplatz Roche on the verge of job cut - Inside Paradeplatz Top subsidiaries of property giant Signa file for bankruptcy (msn.com) What will 2024 bring for UK investors? Britain is still a 'bargain' say experts - here's how to invest | This is Money jeroen blokland on X: "Blackrock has defined five ‘Mega Forces,’ ‘big, structural changes that affect investing now - and far in the future.’ You judge if this fits a traditional 60-40 portfolio. You will find my investment conclusions at the end. 1. Demographic divergence Aging populations in major…" / X (twitter.com) Singapore Fines Credit Suisse Over Mischarged Spreads by Bankers (finews.asia) Not even surprising anymore.. good grief.. According to the MAS, Credit Suisse’s relationship managers had provided clients with inaccurate or incomplete post-trade disclosures resulting in spreads for 39 over-the-counter (OTC) bond transactions being charged above agreed rates. Maine Bars Trump From 2024 Primary Ballot, Joining Colorado - The New York Times (nytimes.com) Romania and Bulgaria partly joining Schengen area (msn.com) Thank you for your support in 2023, we wish you and yours a super healthy, full of joy and happiness new year, Guten Rutsch! Bonne année and a happy new year 🌟🥂🫶🌈🌈🙌

World bond index.. biggest 2month gain on record >>> CHF closing 2023 on all time highs, JPY and metals react, pretty classic FX moves on inflation collapse, bonf and risk melt-up Global investors remain bearish on the Chinese market due to worries about its property troubles, according to a Bank of America survey >>> EMG up 15% in 2023 and SHCOMP down 15%..the contrarians will notice and pick some China exposure for 2024 US Labor Market Seen Cooling in 2024, Regional Fed Surveys Show UST's : broadly speaking back to where they were same time last year, as discussed many times back then, the FED was far too late in hiking in 2021-22 (did far too much QE:.), then had to catch up and overdo with hikes in 2023...and here we are, 2y yields are now about 15-20bps lower on the year and Fed funds is 1% higher... Stocks typically continue to rise when the FED starts to cut, unless there is a recession, all about that soft landing that is currently priced in by pretty much everyone Robert Holzmann, one of the ECB’s most hawkish Governing Council members, says it’s too early to talk about lowering borrowing costs, and such a move in 2024 is anything but certain Japan’s currency received the largest inflow from global FX reserves among the eight tracked by the IMF in the third quarter, based on the latest data from the fund adjusted for exchange-rate fluctuations and returns on short-term government bonds… Half of the container ship fleet that regularly transits the Red Sea and Suez Canal is now avoiding the route because of the threat of attacks in the region Market expectations for Fed's rate path is as follow : -Jan 2024 still pausing -March 2024 - 25bps cut to 5.0-5.25% -May 2024 - 25bps cut to 4.75-5.0% -June 2024 - 25bps cut to 4.5-4.75% -July 2024 - 25bps cut to 4.25-4.5% -Additional cuts priced in all the way down to 3.15% by Dec 2025.. BofA: Investor Interest in China «Shockingly Low» (finews.asia) ECB’s Holzmann Says Rate Cuts in 2024 Aren’t Guaranteed - Bloomberg Foreign investors unwind $33bn bet on China growth rebound (ft.com) Fed Surveys Across America Show Employers Expecting to Hire Less in 2024 - Bloomberg Apple can temporarily sell smartwatches after US appeals court win | Reuters Iran Blames Trump for October 7 Hamas Attack in Israel (newsweek.com) blame game Red Sea Attacks Latest: Half of Container-Ship Fleet Avoids Route - Bloomberg Musk, Trump, Tapper and Hannity: 5 memorable media interviews from 2023 | The Hill China says it won't turn a blind eye to Philippines' repeated 'provocations' | Reuters USDJPY

The United States has finalized contracts to purchase three million barrels of oil to help replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) after the largest sale in history last year, the U.S. Department of Energy said on Tuesday GS : "We now see below-2% core PCE inflation as a plausible outcome for 2024.", “.. For the Fed, we believe below-target core inflation would lead the Committee to consider consecutive 25bp cuts at every FOMC meeting until the funds rate approaches their estimate of neutral at that time ..” BMO: Powell “couldn't have asked for a better present .. consumers are spending, the economy is rolling along creating jobs and lifting incomes, and yet inflation is simmering down nicely. .. the endgame is turning out better than the Fed or nearly anyone could have imagined ..” FT-Israel warns of regional conflict risk as Iran tensions increase (crude..) Maersk resumed Red Sea shipping under U.S-led naval coalition AI systems can't be named as the inventor of patents, UK's top court rules, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang says AI will be ‘fairly competitive’ with humans in 5 years The Bullish Percent Index (BPI), developed by Abe Cohen in the 1950s is a breadth indicator based on the number of stocks based on Point and Figure Buy signals. The indicator helps you know the market's health and when it's overbought or oversold >>>In 2022 and 2023, the indicator reached 70 (overbought) six times, all occurrences were near market peaks, and the indicator is again at/over 70 today Global banks cut 60'000 jobs in 2023, led by CS/UBS, Citi and Wells SPX500 has drawn around $40 billion in inflows in December, on track for the biggest monthly haul since it began trading in 1993 Confiscating Russian assets would be ‘cataclysm’ for dollar – Shiller Markets : The real question for markets in 2024, is whether the Fed Dec 2023 pivot will not trigger a new 'run-up' in inflation, and thus whether those 160bps of rate cuts priced in now for next year, need to be at least partly adjusted.. IronOre hitting $140 a ton, highest in 18months, #URA uranium prices hitting 10+ year highs, Crude WTI mid 70's range again, didn't stay long below $70, Red Sea situation keeping markets on edge >> the FED pivot bottom ticked the energy complex! The small-cap Russell 2,000 has finally cleared the top of the sideways range it had been in since mid-2022 Equity markets grinding higher, Asia off their preXmas lows too (after the China announcement on gaming - but it has been a terrible year for SHCOMP and HSI), most staying bullish because the S&P500 has not declined during a re-election year since 1952 and has averaged about 10% gains in those years (inflation, rates the key, it is all that matters). SMI really underperformed this year, CHF strength. UST 2year yields finishing slightly below levels where they were at the end of December 2023! those 4.8%+ yields earlier this year and again in Sep were a gift USDollar weaker into year-end, if the bond market is right for 2024, the $$ should have a pretty bad year overall, FX not really being on the markets mind on a relative basis, bonds, equity, metals, crypto all moved much more than FX in 2023 GOLD ...''will not go (much) below $2K ever again!'', from a cost of production perspective XPT looks even better/cheaper, as for XAG mning, which has been in decline (Mexico), you'd think it has a real good chance to have a decent rally too Fed Likely to End Bank Funding Program in March, Wrightson Says - Bloomberg US buys 3 million barrels of oil for strategic reserve (msn.com) Americans ramped up spending during the holidays despite some financial anxiety and higher costs (yahoo.com) Confiscating Russian assets would be ‘cataclysm’ for dollar – Nobel Prize winner - The Press United Bespoke on X: "The small-cap Russell 2,000 has finally cleared the top of the sideways range it had been in since mid-2022. If at first you don't succeed, try, try, try, and try again! https://t.co/MzlJolpHV9" / X (twitter.com) Digital Currency Group's Barry Silbert steps down as Grayscale chairman: CNBC Crypto World Intel to Invest $25 Billion in Israel After Winning $3.2 Billion in Incentives - Bloomberg Porsche reckons with history of forgotten Jewish co-founder (ft.com) Russia-Ukraine war live: Kyiv disputes Moscow’s claim to control Maryinka in country’s east (theguardian.com) Maersk preparing to resume shipping through Red Sea - BBC News IMF on X: "A scramble to secure strategic minerals such as copper, cobalt, lithium, and nickel could increase price pressures and raise the cost of the climate transition, IMF economists write in the latest issue of F&D. https://t.co/4GACl71HYF https://t.co/5fjQJutkS2" / X (twitter.com) IMF always late to the party.. From Inconsistent ESG Ratings to Meaningful Sustainability Assessments (finews.asia) Samuel Gerber: «First Signs of Delusion at UBS» (finews.asia) Who’s to blame for the demise of Credit Suisse? - SWI swissinfo.ch top management for the last 10years?.. Rigged Game - Inside Paradeplatz >> The fact that this did not happen and that Switzerland instead wrote off the AT-1s without replacement – and thus brought in powerful plaintiffs – and did not convert the bail-in bonds was due to foreign pressure AI systems can't be named as the inventor of patents, UK's top court rules (qz.com) Nvidia CEO: AI will be 'fairly competitive' with humans in 5 years (cnbc.com) Could a direct high-speed train link between Switzerland and London soon be a reality? - SWI swissinfo.ch sounds nuts, but would be great! 2023 In Politics: From Doomed Pledges To The Rise And Fall Of Top Political Players (politicshome.com) What Ever Happened to the Tiny House Movement? | WIRED they look great! France's new immigration law raises new barriers for African students (lemonde.fr)

Happy Holidays, Frohe Weihnachten, Joyeux Noel, Buon Natale, Feliz Navidad! "May the warmth of the holiday season bring joy to you and your loved ones. Wishing you a Merry Christmas and a wonderful New Year filled with happiness and prosperity!" U.S core PCE QoQ 2.0% (est 2.3%, previous 3.7%...), when you add deflation signals in China and Europe...the rate cuts expectations look justified (after hikes got overdone topside initially by CB's that had been so late at actually start to hike 2years ago....) >>> we are now tipped a bit over 50% odds that by this time next year, the Fed will have cut 175bps China unveiled a raft of new measures to rein in spending and content in online games, signaling the start of another industry crackdown that wiped out roughly $54 billion of Tencent Holdings Ltd.’s value-BBG, China 30y yields hit lowest yields sinc2 2005 ! Angola leaves OPEC in blow to oil producer group German far-right party makes electoral breakthrough. Alternative for Germany secures first town mayoralty amid federal government’s rising unpopularity Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin met in Beijing, signaling a stronger alliance between the two countries Container rates hit $10,000 as ocean freight inflation soars in Red Sea crisis Switzerland’s financial regulator is investigating Julius Bär Group over inadequate risk-control structures that contributed to the bank’s exposure to bankrupt property mogul Rene Benko Giuliani files for bankruptcy Banks are pocketing real money by borrowing money from the Fed's newest backstop facility, which charges a lower rate, and then parking it at another unit of the Fed, which pays higher interest. Banks are borrowing record amounts from this new facility, why not do it if you could! Markets : All relatively quiet, but Wednesday's 1.5% sell-off, is not worrying given the extent of it in pct terms, but shows how suddenly things can change USD remains soft(er) going into year-end, as bonds firm up/yields soften again pore PCE Equity markets holding up pretty well by the looks, low yields and vols all contributing to help sentiment going into 2024 Gold, Silver, XPT all at very interesting tech levels - a lot of research talking 'on the cusp of breaking' Container rates hit $10,000 as ocean freight inflation soars in Red Sea crisis (msn.com) Fed’s Newest Tool Has Become More Attractive on Rate-Cut Bets (yahoo.com) liquidity! Demand for Fed’s Bank Term Funding Facility Grows to Record High - Bloomberg They were ignored for 10 years – now the Houthis are threatening to throw global trade into chaos (msn.com) Gold near 3-week peak on Fed rate cut bets, US inflation test looms | Reuters Europe has record gas stores for winter — but bills remain painful (cnbc.com) Short sellers lost close to $178 billion in 2023 (yahoo.com) Ranked: Government Debt by Country, in Advanced Economies (visualcapitalist.com) BOJ debated communicating possible end of easy policy: October minutes - Nikkei Asia Economy still appears headed for recession, U.S. leading index signals - MarketWatch Softer crude, rates, inflation would tend to suggest higher GDP ahead, unless debt really hits home (and spending) in 2024.. Angola leaves OPEC in blow to oil producer group (gulfbusiness.com) most of its Oil goes to China Warren Buffett Just Added $589 Million to 1 of Berkshire Hathaway's Top Holdings (yahoo.com) 79% Of India's GDP Is Generated By Family-Owned Businesses | ZeroHedge Mapping the conflict in Israel and Gaza (reuters.com) China and Russia Send a Message to the West As the Two Strengthen Ties (businessinsider.com) Tencent, NetEase shares plummet on new China online gaming guidelines (msn.com) German far-right party makes electoral breakthrough (ft.com) Evie oder Enkelmann: Wem gibt Bär Schuld am Benko-Gate? - Inside Paradeplatz Julius Bär probed by Swiss regulator over Signa risk lapses - SWI swissinfo.ch Credit Suisse: Final Reckoning for Excessive Bonuses (finews.asia) You bet..! Rudy Giuliani declares bankruptcy after being ordered to pay $150 million in defamation lawsuit (msn.com) How tipping in the United States got out of control (cnbc.com) Used to really dislike this system..you? XAGUSD - break up ? decision time - Q1 2024