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#MXN - Mexican stocks fell over 6% on Monday and the peso closed at its weakest to the dollar since November after the country's ruling party scored a surprisingly strong election result and looked poised for a super-majority in Congress that markets fear might bring constitutional change and diminish checks and balances >>> #MXNJPY has been a huge trend/carry trade for a couple of years together with USDJPY (and other JPY crosses) - beware of a sudden 'forced' unwinding of some of those JPY shorts India election results 2024 live: Modi lead far narrower than expected in ‘moral loss’ for BJP Weaker U.S ISM, deeper contraction, markets now looking for 120-140K NFP Friday, data generally softer, consumers feeling the pain of #highforlonger (UST's and USD reacted swiftly, risk/equity mixed >>>> FWIW, think now we are entering a time where bad news will be bad news for risk, economy weakening at faster pace than inflation, risk is FED on hold for longer, bonds can run, clearly a few NASTY market moves going on in few major areas (MXN, Nifty etc), so beware of possibly ramification in other places, unwind of owned positions etc US diesel demand for March hits 26-year seasonal low, EIA says (weaker consumers), Atlanta Fed’s Q2 GDP Estimate is now just 1.8% down from 4.2% a few weeks ago… The Fed Quietly ‘Admits’ Gold Is Replacing The Dollar As Collapse ‘Fear’ Predicted To Trigger A $15.7 Trillion ETF Bitcoin Price Flip/Forbes article Sturdy central bank gold buying since 2009 and a rising gold price has grown the precious metal’s share of global international reserves to the detriment of fiat currencies. By the end of 2023 gold surpassed the euro and the next fiat currency to be challenged is the US dollar U.S May ISM manuf lower : 48.7 (est 49.5; prev 49.2) - Prices Paid: 57.0 (est 59.0; prev 60.9) - New Orders: 45.4 (est 49.4; prev 49.1) - Employment: 51.1 (est 48.5; prev 48.6) McKinsey estimates the energy demand from data centers will explode from 17GW in 2022 to 35GW by 2030, growth of 10% a year Japan owns $1.2 trillion of US Treasuries. As Japanese yields rise, the domestic market will attract dollars away from US debt. "Rising long-term interest rates in Japan put upward pressure on long-term US Treasury yields:" - Apollo Maersk raises 2024 guidance on strong demand, Red Sea disruptions Swiss CPI pretty much in line and slightly below SNB forecasts, SNB should cut on 20th June after ECB this week Mexican peso, stocks tumble on fears of ruling coalition super-majority in Congress (yahoo.com) Modi’s alliance has early lead in India election vote count (nbcnews.com) India shares plunge as polls show Modi's mandate slipping | Reuters US diesel demand for March hits 26-year seasonal low, EIA says | Reuters South Korea suspends military pact with North over balloon barrage - Nikkei Asia NYSE Fixes Issue That Showed 99% Drops, Triggered Trading Halts (yahoo.com) Mastering covered calls: a strategic guide for Apple investors | Saxo Group (home.saxo) US Banks’ Paper Losses on Some Securities Rose, FDIC Says (yahoo.com) The Fed Quietly ‘Admits’ Gold Is Replacing The Dollar As Collapse ‘Fear’ Predicted To Trigger A $15.7 Trillion ETF Bitcoin Price Flip (forbes.com) Gold Overtakes Euro in Global International Reserves | GoldSeek Maersk raises 2024 guidance on strong demand, Red Sea disruptions (yahoo.com) Michael Pettis on X: "1/7 It is pretty clear to me that global trade conflict is likely only to get worse, mainly because the two sides cannot even agree on what the disagreement is about. According to Bloomberg, China's Commerce Minister... https://t.co/tmi76Q7UPe" / X Australia orders Chinese-linked funds to sell rare-earth stakes in ‘national interest’ (ft.com) ''Got to stay long some rare earth ETF for the duration'' Chalets and flats in Swiss Alps are becoming a luxury - SWI swissinfo.ch The sure are Chateau de Villette is French manor home that costs $270,000 a week (cnbc.com) #USDJPY #MXNJPY #GBPJPY and #EURJPY - point is, it is all related, lets be careful on the carry trades out there #MXNJPY could be the trigger for more liquidation in other positions

Week ahead : JOLTS Tuesday, ECB rate decision on Thursday, U.S NFP Friday and PMI across globe are the main events, BoC rate decision on Wed, after over 10+ Fed speakers last week, there will be none this week as we are in 'blackout period' till FOMC next week >>> markets looked a little soft going into the final 2hours on Friday! a $6bn ''buy into the close'' pushed it all back to current levels + perhaps early news/rumours of some kind of deal in Israel-Gaza war emerged Israel-Gaza war live: Blinken urges Israel and Hamas to take ceasefire deal as fresh strikes reported in Rafah Modi's alliance to win big in India election, exit polls project Sheinbaum elected Mexico's first woman president The ANC’s total supremacy in South Africa is over OPEC+ agreed to extend its voluntary cuts to approx 2mio barrels a day through Q3, followed by gradual phase out over following 12mos China factory activity growth hits 2-year high, 51.7 in May from 51.4 in April and Prospect of peaceful 'reunification' with Taiwan being 'eroded', China says.  China has sold $102bn in UST securities over the past 12mos and bought a large amount of Gold (still got 700bn) U.S PCE, April core was as expected, no major surprises, kex going forward is moderating wage growth SNB : The natural rate of interest (r*) as a reference point for monetary policy - a practitioner's view Russia-China pipeline deal stalls Don't expect policy change, French PM says after debt downgrade. French far right has big lead over Macron ally ahead of EU vote: poll Key Engines of US Consumer Spending Are Losing Steam All at Once - most definitely a must monitor over the summer scenario.. Israel-Gaza war live: Blinken urges Israel and Hamas to take ceasefire deal as fresh strikes reported in Rafah (msn.com) Modi's alliance to win big in India election, exit polls project (msn.com) The ANC’s total supremacy in South Africa is over. Now a healthier future can begin | Alexis Akwagyiram | The Guardian Claudia Sheinbaum elected Mexico's first woman president - BBC News All politics is local: What the EU election is actually about in each country – POLITICO China factory activity growth hits 2-year high, private survey shows | The Straits Times Prospect of peaceful 'reunification' with Taiwan being 'eroded', China says (msn.com) China’s Tourists to Spend Nearly $1 Trillion on Holidays at Home - Bloomberg Russia-China pipeline deal stalls (ft.com) French far right has big lead over Macron ally ahead of EU vote: poll (msn.com) Javier Blas on X: "OPEC+ MEETING: Another complex fudge. It extends the voluntary layer of the production cuts until 3Q 2024. After that, they can be gradually eased. It extends the official layer of the cuts until end-2025, but with revised baseline levels. Big win (again) for UAE 1/4" / X Key Engines of US Consumer Spending Are Losing Steam All at Once (yahoo.com) Don't expect policy change, French PM says after debt downgrade | Reuters OPEC nations agree to extend oil production cuts (yahoo.com) Why 10 Pricey Foods Are Even More Expensive Because of Climate Change - Business Insider Dell's profit, margin hurt by higher AI costs, shares slump (yahoo.com) Nvidia rewrites the laws of growth – The Irish Times World Leader in Artificial Intelligence Computing | NVIDIA video Boeing Will Need Years for Turnaround, Emirates’ Clark Predicts - Bloomberg Japan’s $62bn support for yen provides little reprieve (ft.com) Got to follow up with rate hikes..or else The natural rate of interest (r*) as a reference point for monetary policy - a practitioner's view (snb.ch) What Donald Trump Can No Longer Do as a Convicted Felon - Newsweek 'Civil War' Warning Issued by MAGA After Donald Trump Guilty Verdict - Newsweek What to know about Anthony Fauci's fiery hearing with House GOP (thehill.com) WTI crude, been super rangy, few calls for 75$ area to be tested

Key today is the European Inflation at 11:00 CET with the headline expected at 2.5% (regional surveys showing a possible upward surprise) and the US PCE Deflator at 14:30. The PCE is expected at 2.7% and the Core at 2.8% >>> equity risk been on defensive since the 'tailed' UST auctions, and few signs of pretty sticky inflation... and few sub optimal earnings reports particularly pushed DJ down this week #JGB Japan's 10-Year yield jumps to highest level in 13 years - 1.07%.. Donald Trump was convicted on all 34 counts in his hush-money trial. It is the first time that a former American president has been found guilty of a crime EU agrees tariffs on Russian, Belarusian grain imports from July SNB President Thomas Jordan "the possibility that r* may have increased represents an upward risk to this inflation outlook" When Albert Einstein met Charlie Chaplin in 1931, Einstein said, "What I admire most about your art is its universality." You don't say a word, yet the world understands you. "It's true. Chaplin replied, “But your glory is even greater.” The world admires you, when no one understands you. " Bank of America CEO says U.S. consumers and businesses have turned cautious on spending Pressure mounts on Beijing to allow renminbi to weaken. Markets push central bank for a weaker currency to reflect the gap in bond yields with the US >> good article from FT, on currency pressures facing by PBOC, negative RMB carry vs USD and other currencies, gives a rational for many to have a SHORT RMB Pfizergate plaintiff asks leaders to sack von der Leyen and Commission UK Treasury sells another £1.24 billion worth of NatWest shares as election threatens retail sale #Crude Speculators (ICE futures) have built the largest Brent Oil short position since 2020 EU agrees tariffs on Russian, Belarusian grain imports from July | Business and Economy News | Al Jazeera Tokyo Inflation Picks Up, Keeping BOJ on Track for Rate Hike - Bloomberg Robert Friedland on X: "Why #Copper Demand Is Skyrocketing https://t.co/NZ1iTMol32" / X Trump guilty in hush money trial in New York (cnbc.com) Those hoping for him to be in prison will be disappointed, first time offender, no violent crime, suspect a fine and a slap on the wrist it will be, and/or a long time stuck on appeals, he wants to be on the road campaigning for the election one would think! Donald Trump convicted in New York hush money trial (qz.com) DowJones _ Dow Slumps 380 Points As Salesforce Stock Suffers Worst Loss Since 2008 (msn.com) >>>> y'day, Software got chopped, iShares Tech Software Sector ETF finished -6% India silver imports: India imports more silver in 4 months of 2024 than in all of 2023 - The Economic Times (indiatimes.com) Pfizergate plaintiff asks leaders to sack von der Leyen and Commission (msn.com) Biden allows Ukraine limited use of US arms to strike inside Russia, say US officials | Reuters The natural rate of interest (r*) as a reference point for monetary policy - a practitioner's view (snb.ch) Pressure mounts on Beijing to allow renminbi to weaken (ft.com) Bank of America CEO says U.S. consumers and businesses have turned cautious on spending (msn.com) How UBS is Setting Up Sergio Ermotti's Succession (finews.asia) Treasury sells £1.24bn more NatWest shares as election delays retail sale | Evening Standard Boeing gave the FAA a safety plan. But its 737 Max crisis isn't over (qz.com) Oil slips after Fed signals no rush to cut rates as key US inflation data awaited | Reuters Swedish government moves to cut tax on ISK savings accounts (thelocal.se)

The market no longer expects two Fed rate cuts this year, with only 31 bps of reductions currently priced in - after election? >>> 7y USR auction last night ''tailed again'', JGS's leading duration yields higher (certainly not helping), didn't help risk into close, DOW back around its 50dma, though NVDA closed on highs, #VIX too low really, and/or perfect for #hedging needs! SNB chief sees ‘small upside risk’ for inflation forecast #HYG >>> Very important'A rising share of the $8.9tn high-grade US corporate bond market is at risk of being slashed to junk status, with rating agencies' expectations of downgrades exceeding upgrades for the first time since the end of 2021.' >>> BMO was dragged lower yesterday as they set aside reserves for bad loans.. China is pouring almost $50 billion into its chipmaking efforts despite U.S. sanctions. Six of China's largest state-owned banks are investing in a fund to boost the country's tech efforts Jim Chanos known for his bearish bets on Enron and Tesla, is facing a lawsuit for alleged misuse of company funds. Tesla CEO Elon Musk used the opportunity to hit back at one of his hardest critics Gaza war will last at least another seven months, says Israel 6 NATO countries are planning to build a 'drone wall' to defend themselves against Russia, reports say Financial conditions are significantly easier than when the Fed started raising interest rates in March 2022:” Apollo’s Slok. Since Nov. 2023, when the FOMC started talking about cuts instead of hikes, the S&P 500 market cap is up $9 trillion Big Pharma steps up race for AI-discovered drugs - makes sense! Rosenberg : I keep hearing this has been an ‘earnings driven’ market. Sure. EPS +6% YoY and the S&P 500 is up +26%. A 3-point multiple expansion from Oct-May is a near-2 SD event and at ~21x on the fwd. P/E, this is the top decile overvalued equity markets of all time (IMHO - always tricky to judge with Mag7 involved..) GS : All-Time High Number of Passengers Passed Through TSA Checkpoints at US Airports Last Weekend More US high-grade borrowers at risk of downgrade as economy slows (ft.com) BMO misses Q2 profit expectations as it sets aside more money for bad loans - National | Globalnews.ca SNB-Chef sieht "kleines Aufwärtsrisiko" für Inflationsprognose (msn.com) Nick Timiraos on X: "NEWS: Beth Hammack, the former Goldman Sachs treasurer who has also chaired the Treasury's TBAC, will succeed Loretta Mester as president of the Cleveland Fed" / X Nick Timiraos on X: "Financial conditions update: In the U.S. mortgage market, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (7.05% last week) has now been above 6.7% for the last 52 weeks. This hasn't happened since 2001, per @MBAMortgage. Purchase-mortgage activity has been (not surprisingly) in the dumps. https://t.co/LSbGEBBZ6L" / X Big Pharma steps up race for AI-discovered drugs - SWI swissinfo.ch Siemens Gamesa Cutting 4,100 Jobs in Wind Turbine Unit (yahoo.com) UBS raises silver prices forecast. Here's the new target By Investing.com Gaza war will last at least another seven months, says Israel (msn.com) Xi tells Arab leaders Gaza war can't 'continue indefinitely,' tops up aid - Nikkei Asia 6 NATO countries are planning to build a 'drone wall' to defend themselves against Russia, reports say (msn.com) Providing meaningful value to our fans, with a side of facts (mcdonalds.com) China invests $47.5 billion in chip fund amid U.S. sanctions (qz.com) IMF raises China's growth forecast on strong Q1 and policy measures (cnbc.com) Walgreens is cutting prices on 1,000 items for the summer (qz.com) Shrinkflation? Android Users Can Finally Turn Off All Annoying Ads & Get Faster Web Browsing… – Experts On Security Singapore Airlines deadly turbulence caused by changes in gravity (qz.com) Lisbon, a city dying from its own success | International | EL PAÍS English (elpais.com) Elon Musk Seizes Opportunity To Taunt Jim Chanos After Tesla Short-Seller Faces Lawsuit Over Alleged Fund Misuse (msn.com) Jamie Dimon is right. The number of U.S. public companies is plummeting—and that’s bad news for the democratic component of the economy (msn.com) Ozempic and weight loss drug shortages can now be tracked (qz.com) #GDX Gold miners - place your bets

S&P 500 hasn't declined by 2% or more for 317 consecutive trading days, the longest streak since a 351-day stretch that lasted from Sep 2016 through Feb 2018 >>> VIX sub 12 area, not a bad timing to purchase a 'hedge' >>> The VIX's historical average is around 19.50 dating back to its 1990's inception Rate cut expectations/pricing : earlier this year, markets priced in 6 Fed cuts, sic ECB cuts and 5 BoE cuts in 2024, now market pricing is 2 and a half cut by ECB and BoC, 1 and a half cut by the FED and BoE, and only half a cut by the RBA USD on track to snap 4months winning streak, vs not all but majors - keep an eye on techs, what's worked in FX land is carry (low vols etc), CROSSJPY's and CROSSCHF's higher,#GBPCHF #EURCHF - good long-term break technically ECB speakers: The ECB shouldn’t rule out lowering borrowing costs in both June and July, Francois Villeroy de Galhau said — pushing back against colleagues uncomfortable with consecutive cuts. Philip Lane said the full effects of the central bank’s tightening have yet to be felt Shanghai lowered down payment ratios by 10% to a minimum of 20% for first-time buyers and 30% for second-home buyers Saxo : Technical Update - Metals finding support and rebounding: Gold, Silver, Platinum and Copper Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said a deadly strike on a displacement camp in Gaza's Rafah was a "tragic incident" that his government is "investigating" Technical analysis Gold Silver Platinum Copper rebounding | Saxo Group (home.saxo) Ole S Hansen on X: "Copper trades higher after it, just like silver, managed to hold a key level of support. The bounce being supported by China stepping up efforts to support its property market, as well as a softer doller supporting the general level of risk appetite" / X Deadly Rafah strike a 'tragic incident' - Netanyahu (rte.ie) Dollar Bulls Retreat as US Economic Print Cools, CFTC Data Show - Bloomberg Lame ducks Macron and Scholz will struggle to steer EU’s post-election agenda – POLITICO ECB could start cutting rates in June, ECB’s Rehn says - Business & Finance - Business Recorder (brecorder.com) Lyn Alden on X: "Here's an embedded version of the Broken Money video. -An analysis of the past, present, and future of money, and how technology impacts it over time. -How the current disequilibrium (transactions way faster than settlements) creates centralized and corrupted money clusters: https://t.co/TarwKOIaKu" / X This is really good video General election: Tories announce 'Triple Lock Plus' pension allowance - BBC News AI regulators in UK are 'under-resourced', warns science committee chair | ITV News UBS: China is a «Bright Spot» Amongst Asian Equities (finews.asia) It is now..it's rallied 20-30pct.. Swiss retailer Migros starts restructuring with 150 job losses - SWI swissinfo.ch How the Apple iPhone changed the world (cnbc.com) Judge's Jury Instructions Could Change Trump Trial Outcome: Jury Consultant (newsweek.com) Map Shows Florida Cities Break Heat Records Amid Surging Temperatures (newsweek.com)

Memorial Day today, heading into month-end and its usual price action, OPEC+ meting (2nd June), Friday will bring EU HICP and U.S PCE, which will be important for both ECB (6th June meeting-25bps cut baked in) and FED's tone going into June 12th (nothing expected at this FOMC meeting - data been too strong, the likes of GS pushing back 1qst cut to Sep 2024 now), and plenty of CB speakers of course, just the 10 FED speakers alone this week Why Biden's almost 100% capital gains tax increase would crush the stock market US University of Michigan consumer sentiment : positive May, headline index revised up to 69.1 from a preliminary reading around 67 ''with signs that the pickup in realized inflation is weighing on growth exp and willingness to make large purchases'' G-7 against China: Chinese trade practices were criticized by G-7 finance chiefs, who threatened escalation Goldman: Moving the First Fed Cut Back to September "We Expect Monthly Core CPI Inflation to Run in the High 20s on Average and Core PCE in the Low 20s in the Run Up to the September Meeting and Think That This Would Be Enough for a Rate Cut" "A Japanese official conceded that chances of a breakthrough on free trade talks were low, stressing that “the most important thing is to make sure that tensions [in the region] will not escalate”." Goldman: Peak oil demand is still a decade away. We raise our 2030E demand forecast to 108.5 mb/d from 106 mb/d, expecting peak oil demand to occur by 2034E at c.110 mb/d followed by a long plateau till On the eve of next week’s EU election, French far-right leader Marine Le Pen is inviting Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni to team up and form a right-wing super-grouping that would be the second-biggest party bloc in the European Parliament South Africa's election could bring the biggest political shift since it became a democracy in 1994 ‘Ministers from Finland, Norway, Poland and the three Baltic states said at the weekend that they had discussed creating a co-ordinated system of drones along their borders with Russia to prevent smuggling and further provocations’ Tesla shareholders advised to reject Musk's $56 billion pay Tesla shareholders advised to reject Musk's $56 billion pay (yahoo.com) Asia-Pacific markets higher amid BOJ remarks and China industrial profits rise (msn.com) South Africa's election could bring the biggest political shift since it became a democracy in 1994 (msn.com) China warns South Korea against politicising trade before Japan talks (ft.com) Geely cracks top 10 in Q1 global auto sales in China carmaker first - Nikkei Asia Terry Smith: «Valuation is not as important as Quality» (themarket.ch) Post-earnings checklist for Nvidia Investors | Saxo Group (home.saxo) Le Pen to Meloni: Let’s team up and form EU Parliament’s No. 2 group – POLITICO How to devalue the dollar - by Noah Smith - Noahpinion As Treasury Secretary, Robert Lighthizer Would Help Trump Upend the Global Economy (foreignpolicy.com) '''Whatever the reason, I know two people who don’t think a “strong” dollar is a good idea: Donald Trump and his main trade adviser, Robert Lighthizer. Trump is promising to weaken the dollar if he gets back into office, and Lighthizer appears to be the one who came up with the idea:'' Gold Prices Rise as the Dollar Slowly Dies | Mises Institute market will need a few failed UST auction or a BoJ/BoK/China interventions, both of which look unlikely, yet anyway... Six new large mines need to come online annually by 2050 to meet global copper demand - study - MINING.COM “A normal Honda Accord needs about 40 pounds of copper. The same battery electric Honda Accord needs almost 200 pounds of copper. Onshore wind turbines require about 10 tons of copper, and in offshore wind turbines, that amount can more than double,” said Adam Simon, co-author of the study. “We show in the paper that the amount of copper needed is essentially impossible for mining companies to produce.” Why Biden's almost 100% capital gains tax increase would crush the stock market (yahoo.com) Biden's almost 100% capital gains tax increase would crush the stock market - Analysts By Investing.com Something Just Flipped in the Credit Market for the First Time Since 2020 - Bloomberg Starwood’s $10 Billion REIT Turns to Survival Mode as Real Estate Pain Lingers (yahoo.com) Police clear occupied university building in Basel - SWI swissinfo.ch

#Copper use going forward...National Grid taps shareholders to help fund £60bn low-carbon energy switch. Infrastructure firm raises £6.8bn to connect homes to renewable energy sources across US and UK, and you can extrapolate that in pretty much every countries #NVDA up yesterday the expected 9% (as per implieds), while rest of the market decided to take a breather ( SPX:bearish engulfing the previous 6 days. Similar to that April 4 candle-must monitor price action) as mentioned recently, it wouldn't be a bad thing to consolidate in eq, commods, metals for a little while. Littel USD direction, CROSSJPY,'s and CROSSCHF's have done well on low vol environment (carry plays been flavor of last month or two) Janet Yellen says many Americans still struggling with inflation. US Treasury secretary expresses concern over ‘substantial’ increases in living costs U.S & EU PMI beat estimates : S&P Global flash May composite PMI advanced by more than 3 points to 54.4, fastest pace in 2 years Euro zone May business growth at year high >>> Fed language in minutes was 'hawkish', as seen in the broader Fed sentiment index UK household energy price cap to fall 7%, in August, good news! Supercore Inflation Trending Higher/Apollo Fed’s Bostic expects inflation to keep coming down — but slowly Tesla's new data on Autopilot safety doesn't tell the full story. The company says its controversial self-driving tech is 11 times safer on average. Should we trust that? Japan's inflation slows further, keeping BOJ cautious on rate hikes SEC completes abrupt U-turn to approve Ethereum ETFs in ‘politically driven’ move National Grid taps shareholders to help fund £60bn low-carbon energy switch | National Grid | The Guardian Copper price to rocket to $40,000 a tonne, says top trader Andurand (ft.com) Fed’s Bostic expects inflation to keep coming down — but slowly (msn.com) Janet Yellen says many Americans still struggling with inflation (ft.com) Japan's inflation slows further, keeping BOJ cautious on rate hikes | Reuters Euro zone May business growth at year high, PMI shows (msn.com) SEC completes abrupt U-turn to approve Ethereum ETFs in ‘politically driven’ move | Fortune Crypto China’s distressed asset managers in the spotlight, ‘rescue’ role of troubled state-backed firms questioned amid property woes | South China Morning Post (scmp.com) Dry Bulk Flows — Breakwave Advisors Supercore Inflation Trending Higher - Apollo Academy Google, Meta and other tech giants aim to revive the carbon market (qz.com) Tesla says Autopilot is safer for drivers — but that's not the whole story (qz.com) Withers Launches Campaign Website for CS AT1 Bondholders (finews.asia) There are now more daily marijuana users in the US than daily alcohol users | AP News Scarlett Johansson's OpenAI feud rekindles fear in Hollywood | Reuters Norway to be taken to court by WWF over deep sea mining (thelocal.no) Kosovo lawmakers back deal to rent jail space to Denmark | Reuters Is it constitutionally possible to revoke this election? (prospectmagazine.co.uk) surely not! Know your audience when you are campaigning ... Rishi Sunak: PM mocked for football blunder on campaign visit - BBC News and this... Post Office Horizon IT inquiry: Paula Vennells to be questioned by lawyers representing victims – live (theguardian.com) Child treated for overdose as vapes spiked with nitazenes - BBC News Make this stop for crying out loud Donald Trump-RFK Jr. feud comes to a head at Libertarian National Convention (thehill.com)

UK CPI showed a persistent inflation, markets were expecting real signs of a cooling off, key Services numbers was +5.9% vs +5.4% exp. General election called : 4th July, pretty desperate timing/set of affairs for Sunak & Co Federal Reserve minutes: Policymakers saw a longer path to rate cuts, nothing really new, rates market didn't react, high for longer, a slightly higher neutral policy rate ? Metals, #copper, #GLD were overdone, now a few ugly days ahead working out short-term excesses Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang says 'demand is just so strong' for its hot AI chips, as expected by implieds a move of 8-9% was expected and here we are after hours China signalled it is ready to unleash tariffs as high as 25% on imported cars with large engines, as trade tensions escalate with the US and European Union Apple is the 'hidden AI play,' as its hardware will be the key hub for AI apps/Eisman Norway will further restrict access for Russian tourist travellers due to the ongoing war in Ukraine, blocking almost all entry Yardeni : U.S Household mortgage debt as a percent of household real estate value is near an all-time low Florida’s 125% surge in property-Insurance bills, car insurance (E-car mainly) up too GOLDMAN: “.. our projections now imply that the current fiscal path would push the debt-to-GDP ratio to 130% by 2034 (vs. 97% in the same year under our 2019 projections) and real interest expense to 2.3% of GDP (vs. 1.5% in our 2019 projections) ..” AMZN choses Spain - AWS plans to invest €15.7 billion in Spain, supporting 17,500 jobs annually in local businesses Surging German wage growth casts doubt on timing of ECB rate cuts Collectively agreed pay rose 6.2% in the first 3 months of the year at the fastest pace in almost a decade, Bundesbank says Janet Yellen urges EU to join US in curbs on cheap Chinese exports Federal Reserve minutes: Policymakers saw a longer path to rate cuts (yahoo.com) Surging German wage growth casts doubt on timing of ECB rate cuts (ft.com) 2024 is heavy metals | Saxo Group (home.saxo) Copper Extends Decline as Record Prices Deter Buyers in China - Bloomberg Nvidia forecasts quarterly revenue above estimates, unveils stock split | Reuters Chips 'Demand Is Just so Strong': Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang (businessinsider.com) AWS plans to invest €15.7 billion in Spain, supporting 17,500 jobs annually in local businesses (aboutamazon.eu) Michael Pettis on X: "1/4 "China is urging the country’s top carmakers to source up to a quarter of their chips locally by 2025 as the world’s biggest automotive market looks to build a semiconductor supply chain amid escalating tensions with the US." https://t.co/kXvCE5Oxnx via @ft" / X Janet Yellen urges EU to join US in curbs on cheap Chinese exports | International trade | The Guardian U.S. House Approves Crypto FIT21 Bill With Wave of Democratic Support (coindesk.com) Norway to block entry for most Russian tourists (yahoo.com) Ukraine war live updates: Latest news on Russia and the war in Ukraine (cnbc.com) Chris Mason: Why did Sunak decide to call summer election? - BBC News Apple Is a 'Hidden AI Play' As a Central Hub for AI Apps: Steve Eisman (businessinsider.com) China Hints at 25% Car Tariff as Deadline for EU Probe Looms (msn.com) Rising waters plague septic tanks, threatening pollution and health risks - Washington Post Insurance prices through the rood in some places and things like auto insurance rates in the US have increased by 42% over the past 2 years. That's the biggest 2-year spike since 1977 Florida’s 125% Surge in Property-Insurance Bills Sows Havoc (yahoo.com) 46 percent say Trump did something illegal in hush money case: Poll (thehill.com)

FED officials urge patience on timing of initial rate cut (though overall speeches from fed officials slightly less hawkish..), UK Inflation not quite as low as expectations #GBPCHF nicely does it, #NVDA all about guidance (#AMZN below news + implied vols say +/- 10pct move approx for after hours fun) >>> so long as VIX remains around/below 12 it will force-push more systematic buying of 'carry' in risk, and in FXland JPY and CHF will remain soft How sanctions played havoc with Iran’s ageing helicopters. US-made Bell 212 carrying country’s president was almost 30 years old when it crashed into a mountainside Former South Africa president Jacob Zuma banned from running in next week's election due to criminal conviction Barclays Plc is among Wall Street firms weighing whether to require scores of workers to commute to company offices five days a week The European Central Bank holds 20% of Atos bonds, La Lettre says Jamie Dimon plans to step down in the coming years, preparing the ground, which should hardly be a s surprise! US electricity demand from EVs jumps to new highs in early 2024 Russian defence ministry proposes revising Baltic Sea border, what next Israel has Recalled their Ambassadors from Ireland and Norway for “Consultations” following the Governments of the Two Countries announcing their Recognition today of a Palestinian State. Watch Barr Says Fed Needs to Sit Tight for Longer Than Thought - Bloomberg Fed's Waller wants 'several months' of good inflation data before lowering rates (cnbc.com) Fed’s Bostic expects inflation to keep coming down — but slowly (msn.com) Fed officials urge patience on timing of initial rate cut | Reuters UK inflation falls less than expected, dashing June rate cut hopes | Reuters Canada's inflation cools to 3-yr low of 2.7%, in boost for rate cut bets (msn.com) RBNZ keeps interest rates steady, sees delayed cuts amid sticky inflation (yahoo.com) Russian defence ministry proposes revising Baltic Sea border (yahoo.com) Ukraine war live updates: Latest news on Russia and the war in Ukraine (cnbc.com) Michael Pettis on X: "NDRC: "China will take further actions, including issuing more local government special bonds and expediting the promotion of large-scale equipment renewal and trade-in deals for consumer goods, as it seeks to consolidate the recovery trend." https://t.co/KE6g55EpSO" / X https://qz.com/amazon-nvidia-hopper-chip-blackwell-1851490624?utm_content=1851492124&utm_source=email&utm_medium=Quartz_Daily_Brief_Europe_Africa   guidance will be key for #NVDA Silver Outpaces Gold to Be One of Year's Best-Performing Major Commodities - Bloomberg Five metals commodities for the energy transition – The Armchair Trader US electricity demand from EVs jumps to new highs in early 2024: Maguire | Reuters The European Central Bank holds 20% of Atos bonds, La Lettre says | Reuters This is the new normal : The European Central Bank holds about 20% of French IT consulting firm Atos' bonds, making it the largest bondholder of the group which is reviewing creditors' proposals to restructure its 4.8 billion euros ($5.21 billion) of debt, French media La Lettre reported on Monday China Stocks Rebound Set to Continue With Gains for More Segments - Bloomberg How sanctions played havoc with Iran’s ageing helicopters (ft.com) ‘Nowhere To Go’: Rohingya face arson attacks in Myanmar’s Rakhine State (msn.com) The Fragile Fraternity of China and Russia by Nina L. Khrushcheva - Project Syndicate (project-syndicate.org) Barclays Weighs Five-Day Office Workweek for Staff Tracked by Finra - BNN Bloomberg Self-driving cars may hit the U.K.'s roads by 2026 thanks to a new law (qz.com) Gove’s plan to ‘make marchers pay’ as he vows to tackle antisemitism (msn.com) Former Post Office CEO Paula Vennells arrives at inquiry into Horizon IT scandal | ITV News Former South Africa president Jacob Zuma banned from running in next week's election due to criminal conviction | World News | Sky News Microsoft CEO says the key to success is continuing to learn and change | Fortune America's Most Powerful Banker Prepares His Departure (finews.asia) JPMORGAN/KOLANOVIC ".. A negative stance on equities has hurt the performance of our multi-asset portfolio over the past year, though this has been in part compensated by an OW in commodities and high cash and fixed income yields. However, with very high equity valuations (as well as tight credit spreads and low levels of volatility), we do not see equities as attractive investments at the moment, and we don’t see a reason to change our stance. Rates are restrictive and likely to stay so for longer, inflation readings have been higher than expected (on average), investor positioning and valuations are high, lower cohorts of consumers are showing stress, and geopolitical uncertainty is at the highest level in decades. We don’t think that narrow themes like AI chips can compensate for all of those traditional market challenges that historically worked against the cycle." Büro-Auszug der CS: Auch im Sihlcity wird viel Platz frei – Inside Paradeplatz

VIX ended last week around 12, still there, its lowest close since November 2019, markets all very calm, FX vols on the floor too, still.. 1week EURUSD straddle is total of 50 usdpips :-) >>> if you wanted to buy a equity hedge, now is the time Overall U.S economic data is coming in slightly softer, inflation remains sticky though and Fed officials are being careful to call for early cuts, June and/or Jul yin play, with an asymmetric FED, things can swing quickly (either way). Few arguments for a short-term #copperpeak #commods overall need some sort of consolidation (see below comments) Fed's Mester: Previously, I expected three rate cuts this year. I do not think that's still appropriate. Inflation risks are tilted to the upside Fed staff expect core PCE rose 2.75% in April from a year earlier. Most analysts likewise have core PCE rising by 0.24% in April. That would put the 6-month annualized rate of core PCE inflation at 3.2% Two brothers who studied at the MIT were arrested on Wednesday on US charges that they carried out a cutting-edge scheme to exploit the Ethereum blockchain’s integrity and steal $25 million worth of cryptocurrency - just like that FT-A war over Taiwan between the US and China would trigger the biggest international crisis since the second world war, this is a very good article Saxo summary on China's housing policies (below) Summer interest rate cut ‘possible’ as inflation eases, Bank of England boss says RBA was on the ‘path to reducing rates’ but not anymore/minutes Commods, precious, industrial metals need some sort of consolidation after huge rallies YTD Kolanovic reiterated his view in a note to clients late Monday, urging them not to buy stocks, while acknowledging that this negative outlook has hurt JPMorgan’s model portfolio . GOLDMAN: “.. The Federal Reserve will not be in the first wave of cutters because of the pickup in sequential core inflation during Q1. .. However, we also estimate that the market-based core PCE index .. rose just 0.18%, a pace that would be quite consistent with a July cut if maintained.” 71% of US advisors have little to no gold allocation, i.e. it is less than 1% of their portfolio China/Hong Kong Market Pulse: New Approach to Housing Policy and Market Implications | Saxo Hong Kong (home.saxo) Summary:  The Chinese housing market is undergoing a significant policy shift, as evidenced by the April 30 Politburo meeting which shifted focus from affordable housing to addressing housing inventory overhang. This was followed by the State Council's May 17 conference, unveiling policies to boost demand, including the PBOC funding SOEs to buy unsold properties. As the Third Plenary Session approaches, further policies are anticipated to boost sentiment and ensure stability, but the market faces risks if reforms focus solely on state-driven initiatives, potentially leading to a summer setback. Chinese Tech Stocks Still Have Valuation Appeal With Profits, Buybacks - Bloomberg Investors await Nvidia earnings, commodities on the rise: Morning Brief (yahoo.com) Ole S Hansen on X: "It's not often we find the BCOM TR index in overbought territory, and it highlights the broad nature of the recent rally with MTD gains being led by precious metals (8.7%), industrial metals (7.4%), and grains (7%). #Natgas, #silver and #copper all in need of consolidation. https://t.co/5Be8JSufrG" / X Copper's record run at risk as US shipments calm speculator frenzy - MINING.COM In-Gold-We-Trust-report-2024-english.pdf (ingoldwetrust.report) How Texas and Florida wooed Wall Street (qz.com) CalPERS opposes entire ExxonMobil board of directors suite over climate change suit (qz.com) JPMorgan’s (JPM) Marko Kolanovic Is Last Prominent Bear on Wall Street - Bloomberg Jamie Dimon: JPMorgan stock is too expensive (cnbc.com) Summer interest rate cut ‘possible’ as inflation eases, Bank of England boss says (msn.com) 7 May 2024 | Minutes of the Monetary Policy Meeting of the Board | RBA RBA was on the ‘path to reducing rates’ but not anymore (msn.com) The battlegrounds that could decide a US-China war over Taiwan (ft.com) US says it was 'unable' to provide Iran assistance after helicopter crash | Reuters Separatist stances in Taiwan root cause of the severe situation in Taiwan Strait - Chinadaily.com.cn Iran president death latest: Ebrahim Raisi's funeral to begin today - but some protesters are celebrating his death | World News | Sky News Two former MIT students charged with stealing $25 million of crypto in 12 seconds | CNN Business New York AG has reached a settlement with crypto lender Genesis for $2 billion to repay investors (qz.com) It's not just in the U.S.... to a certain extent it's everywhere you look Spanish debt hits record €1.6 trillion, 109% of GDP, and grows at 5,1%, twice rate of GDP, 2% | The Corner Philipp Hildebrand fährt mit Kunsthaus Zürich in die Wand – Inside Paradeplatz

Commods, copper, Gold new highs and other metals higher again, Nickel (New Caledonia risk) #XAGUSD made it to $32.50 overnight, GOLD vs UST's also breaking down through a 35year support line (chart available on request) #SPX500 : Shorts dying a slow death. Charts showing (charts available on request) QQQ/SPY short interest as a % of shares outstanding. Global semis positioning : Pull-back from March highs but long-term trend still positive Investor allocations in US stocks have reached the highest share in history. Households, mutual funds, pension funds, and foreign investors financial asset allocation in equities just hit 52%. Since 2022, this percentage has increased by ~7%, even surpassing levels seen in the Dot-com bubble Ole S Hansen on X: "#Container #shipping rates jumped 11% last week, driven by strong gains on all major China to EU and US routes. The Drewry composite index at $3511 per 40ft box was the highest in three months, partly reversing some of the softness seen following the Dec/Jan Red Sea spike https://t.co/QQ7gPvsudD" / X German container line Hapag-Lloyd says shipping demand is growing and freight rates are rising, in a fresh sign of a potential rebound in a sector at the center of international trade Nickel price surges as New Caledonia riots raise concerns over supply. Industrial metal critical in electric vehicle batteries climbs almost 7% How battery cell formats will change the face of the EV industry Google Cloud accidentally deletes UniSuper’s online account due to ‘unprecedented misconfiguration’ From Petrodollar Recycling to Gold Recycling: Jeff Currie, CSO of Energy Pathways at Carlyle Group, has his theory about why Gold rises despite rising real interest rates. Emerging countries like the BRICS would trade oil in local currency & no longer in Dollars. But the local currency would immediately be exchanged for gold b/c nobody wants to hold Chinese renminbi or Indian rupee The importance of distinguishing climate science from climate activism Jamie Dimon challenges Biden on China policy G7 warms to plan for Trump-proofing Ukraine aid Georgia could become one of the most important election in 2024! BlackRock Global CIO of Fixed Income, Rick Rieder, takes the contrarian position that the Fed will need to cut interest rates to tame inflation >>> so hang on, this is a time when we can't even agree whether a rate cut or a rate hike will slow inflation?! Hapag-Lloyd Lifts Financial Outlook as Red Sea Crisis Boosts Freight Rates (msn.com) Nickel price surges as New Caledonia riots raise concerns over supply (ft.com) Copper hits record above $11,000 on bets that shortage looms (yahoo.com) 3 reasons why buying copper right now is the best trade one commodity expert has ever seen (yahoo.com) How battery cell formats will change the face of the EV industry – The Armchair Trader Daily Tech Roundup: EV Battery Startups Spearhead Race for Solid-State, TikTok Parent Seeks to Fast-Track Suit Against U.S. - Caixin Global Google Cloud accidentally deletes UniSuper’s online account due to ‘unprecedented misconfiguration’ | Superannuation | The Guardian Google Bard asked Bill Nye if AI can help avoid the end of the world (cnbc.com) Remarks by Chair Powell at the Georgetown University Law Center commencement ceremony - Federal Reserve Board China sanctions Boeing, two U.S. defense contractors for Taiwan arms sales | AP News Morgan Stanley’s Wilson Capitulates on Bearish View of US Stocks - Bloomberg Hummm JPMorgan’s Dimon defies Biden: ‘China is not a natural enemy’ | Fortune Bloomberg TV on X: "BlackRock Global CIO of Fixed Income, Rick Rieder, takes the contrarian position that the Fed will need to cut interest rates to tame inflation. Watch "Wall Street Week" tonight at 6pm ET https://t.co/QWhXHOgID0 https://t.co/LQsHi4poJO" / X The US stock market capitalization to #GDP ratio has reached an impressive 187%. The ratio has increased by ~40% in just 2 years but is still below the ~199% record from 2021. Nominally, the total US stock market cap is near its all-time high of $53 trillion. To put this into perspective, the global stock market cap to GDP ratio excluding the US is just 61%.Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is up 10% year to date and just 0.5% from its all-time record. The US market is/has been in a league of its own. At least 11 injured in overnight shooting in Savannah, police say (yahoo.com) Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi confirmed dead in helicopter crash after charred wreckage found | World News | Sky News Estonian Prime Minister Asserts NATO's Training of Ukrainian Soldiers Does Not Escalate Conflict (msn.com) The importance of distinguishing climate science from climate activism | npj Climate Action (nature.com)

Bank of America’s May Global Fund Manager Survey shows fund managers’ average cash levels of 4.0%, down from 4.2% the previous month and representing a 3-year low.  Allocation to equities increased another 7ppt to net 41% overweight.  Bond allocation rose 7ppt to net -6% underweight, ''The soft-landing scenario is unfolding. .. we think a [ten-year yield] decline from 4.35% to the 3.25% area in the next 6-12 months is a good possibility — and likely non-consensus ..” Fed officials overall 'rates should stay high for longer', if/when the fact change, the FED will be quick to react though >> asymmetric FED! Saxo : U.S NatGas trades 16% up on the month Active signs have appeared following the measures introduced by cities across China, as data revealed by real estate organizations showed (intervening as things look very ugly-classic) Chinese cities will higher #home inventory can purchase unsold home at reasonable prices to be used for affordable housing, said Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng. China's factories fire up but consumer slump persists ECB's Schnabel calls for caution in rate cuts beyond June Bernanke/Blanchard: the inflation surge was primarily driven by a series of supply disruptions and increases in the relative price of energy and food. In stark difference to the 1970s, shocks did not trigger a wage price spiral and the inflationary effects were not persistent WELLS: “.. $TSLA is likely no longer the biggest disruptive threat to autos. Chinese manufacturing has historically disrupted industries like steel & solar & signs point to autos being next.” EU under pressure after US levies tariffs on Chinese goods Brussels scrambles to avoid being dragged into trade war between Washington and Beijing FXcorner, GBPCHF quietly having a go at major resistance around 1.1500 area, CROSSJPY's having a push higher (soft JPN GDP this week), USD mixed and all within relatively small ranges still >>> weaker U.S macro though and market will be ''relatively quick to buy UST's and sell USDollars'' as we saw last couple of weeks US Interest Rates Should Stay High for Longer, Fed Officials Suggest - Bloomberg Fed’s Bostic Sees Improvement on Inflation But Housing Still a Concern (investopedia.com) Philipp Heimberger on X: "Bernanke/Blanchard: the inflation surge was primarily driven by a series of supply disruptions and increases in the relative price of energy and food. In stark difference to the 1970s, shocks did not trigger a wage price spiral and the inflationary effects were not persistent. https://t.co/THdOZXva1a" / X ECB's Schnabel calls for caution in rate cuts beyond June, Nikkei reports | Reuters Investors 'most bullish' on equities in almost 3 years: BofA Fund Manager Survey (msn.com) EU under pressure after US levies tariffs on Chinese goods The EUs own perception that they have little leverage is quite something "the Commission is struggling to protect domestic green technology industries from cheap Chinese competitors, with EU officials stressing that Brussels lacks the powers to compete with Washington and Beijing." Ole S Hansen on X: "US #natgas trades up 16% on the month to $2.5, the highest level since January. Supported by lower gas production and increased LNG flows to Freeport following a recent dip. Gas inventories rose 70bcf last week (EIA) vs a 5-yr avg. of 90 bcf. Total stocks at 2633 bcf reduced the https://t.co/wxHIrftz4a" / X Stimulus key to realty stability - Chinadaily.com.cn China Sells Record Sum of U.S. Debt Amid Signs of Diversification - Caixin Global China's factories fire up but consumer slump persists | Reuters Michael Pettis on X: "10/10 If Beijing is determined to meet this year's 5% growth target, it will have to choose between a surge in debt directed at more domestic investment or fiscal transfers to boost consumption. There is as of yet little sign of the latter, but I think this will change soon." / X Putin And Xi Have Denied The Obvious With A Strange Take On Russia's Relationship With China (msn.com) Is the Gold price set to break new records this year? – The Armchair Trader Diese zehn Schweizer Bräuche stehen auf der Unesco-Liste für Weltkulturerbe - SWI swissinfo.ch