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Hezbollah, Israel escalations and rhetoric could plunge Lebanon into war. Both sides are barely staying within the rules of engagement, leaving Lebanese anxious over what comes next. The S&P 500 dividend yield continues to decline, now around 1.35%, Tech Stocks Forward P/E Ratio jumps to 30.9, the highest since 2002 Euro-area members must start reducing debt immediately in the face of enormous long-term fiscal risks from ageing populations, defence spending and climate change/ECB Giorgia Meloni’s hard-right European group claims a top EU job #USDCNH grinding higher, highest fix since November last year, and #USDBRL is worst in class YTD within the EM world, worse then even MXN, TRY or Argentina What's known, and not known, about the partnership agreement signed by Russia and North Korea Shipping industry urges Red Sea action as Houthis sink second vessel Century-old Japanese bank sends warning to world on higher-for-longer rates Boss of U.K. bank that just turned its first profit says introducing a 4-day week for his 547 workers was way easier than going hybrid CNBC Daily Open: Le Pen's 28-year old protégé Hezbollah, Israel escalations and rhetoric could plunge Lebanon into war | Israel-Palestine conflict News | Al Jazeera Giorgia Meloni’s hard-right European group claims a top EU job (ft.com) What's known, and not known, about the partnership agreement signed by Russia and North Korea (msn.com) Shipping industry urges Red Sea action as Houthis sink second vessel | Reuters Latest inflation data provides potential for 'even greater upside' in the stock market rally (yahoo.com) Century-old Japanese bank sends warning to world on higher-for-longer rates | The Straits Times U.K. bank CEO says introducing 4-day week was way easier than going hybrid | Fortune Europe Election 2024: Rishi Sunak could lose seat on July 4, poll finds (msn.com) ‘It is all lining up’: Plan for Ukraine to finally start using F-16 jets this summer | Ukraine | The Guardian Longer-term challenges for fiscal policy in the euro area (europa.eu) Putin seeks to strengthen Vietnam ties as Russia's isolation deepens | AP News China Weakens Yuan (CNU USD) Fixing to Lowest Since November on FX Stress - Bloomberg and #USDBRL chart Brazilian Real - Quote - Chart - Historical Data - News (tradingeconomics.com) Frozen food grocery sales vs. critical cold storage supply chains (cnbc.com) ‘Swatch has no competition’ in its Swiss-made watch segment  - SWI swissinfo.ch #EURUSD consolidation coming to an end

The mega 2024 election year is all about folks having had enough, the massive #inequality built up last 10-15years is coming through and creating #socialrisk, it's not about financial risk, yet anyway >> the populist/nationalist voters are coming out in force, some kind of recession is ahead of us, perhaps not in the too distant future U.S retails sales were softer, as...US households' real income expectations hit the lowest levels in over a decade adn IP was better +0.9% MoM (exp 0.3) Popular tech ETF forced to dump Apple stock, buy Nvidia in upcoming rebalancing, as a result, the $71 billion Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF which tracks the index, could be forced to buy nearly $10 billion worth of Nvidia shares on Friday, while selling more than $11 billion worth of Apple shares, according to a report from analysts at Bloomberg Intelligence shared with MarketWatch last week Chinese 10-year government bond futures hit another record high today #USDCNH Morality Is the Enemy of Peace. The conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine can only end with deals that don’t satisfy anyone completely Euro area recovered at the start of 2024 by more than expected in the March 2024 ECB staff projections, with a boost from net trade and rising household spending, and ECB Chief economist plays down need to intervene in French bond market BlackRock :80% of bitcoin ETF purchases have likely been coming from “self-directed investors who have made their own allocation, often through an online brokerage account." EV maker Fisker files for bankruptcy. US electric car start-up becomes latest to succumb to difficulties hitting the sector (capital intensive business model..), as of the end of May, China had erected 3.05 million public charging facilities, up 46 percent yoy, and 6.87 million private charging facilities, up 61 percent. Green aviation targets driving cooking oil fraud at ‘mass scale’ Housing inflation will need to come down before the Fed can think about cutting rates, BofA says Israel warns Hezbollah of ‘all-out war’ as US tries to de-escalate Lebanon border tensions Israel warns Hezbollah of ‘all-out war’ as US tries to de-escalate Lebanon border tensions (msn.com) CNBC Daily Open: Nvidia unseats Microsoft as world's most valuable company Election breakdown: Manifestos, party in-fighting and spending plans (thelocal.fr) Popular tech ETF forced to dump Apple stock, buy Nvidia in upcoming rebalancing (msn.com) >>>> has become a popular story lately to 'justify' the momentum trade EV maker Fisker files for bankruptcy (ft.com) Chinese automakers seek retaliatory tariffs on EU cars, state media reports | Reuters China leads world in charging infrastructure installation number: NDRC - Chinadaily.com.cn Strike action paralyses Germany's northern ports (msn.com) KOLANOVIC: “.. Our cautious stance has been based on our view that there is no re-rating upside, and that any upside had to therefore come from earnings growth, which we see being insufficient to take on equity risk even under best case scenario assumptions. For equities to avoid a 20%+ correction, you have to believe that tech will become a much more meaningful driver of growth for the broad economy in short order. While we believe tech will continue to be the key driver of economic growth for years to come, we don’t think its impact on corporate P&Ls across the board will be that profound so suddenly, and so we remain cautious here, expecting economic growth to weaken, equities to correct, and investors to find a better entry point.” Warren Buffett buys Occidental shares for 9 straight days, pushes his stake to nearly 29% (msn.com) Expect EU to finally fine a far-right France – POLITICO UK inflation, May 2024 (cnbc.com) Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, June 2024 (europa.eu) In Gaza and Ukraine, Morality Is the Enemy of Peace (foreignpolicy.com) Advisors ‘wary’ of bitcoin ETFs are on slow adoption journey, says BlackRock exec (cnbc.com) Donald Trump Stung By New Polling Among Independents - Newsweek Business world ties elevate key contenders in Trump's search for a running mate (yahoo.com) Ukraine-Gipfel: Auf dem Bürgenstock rumpelte es hinter den Kulissen (nzz.ch) Green aviation targets driving cooking oil fraud at 'mass scale', warn campaigners (telegraph.co.uk) Nvidia market cap passes Microsoft and Apple to become world's most valuable (qz.com) #WTI crude- heading north again

EU heads finish meeting with no agreement on top jobs, decision before 30thJune 5 US stocks for 60% of SPX returns YTD, NASDAQ has not been this overbought since early 2018, Fund Manager cash allocations lowest since mid-2021 (BofA FM survey), Momentum Trading is having the most success in history, even surpassing the Dot Com Bubble French businesses court Marine Le Pen after taking fright at left’s policies, French stocks and bond yields gained after Marine pledged to work with Macron if she wins elections. A new poll has her far-right party at 33%, a left-wing alliance rising to 28% and Macron’s a distant third. Christine Lagarde said the ECB is being “attentive” to market developments. UBS offers to repay 90% to clients hit by Greensill implosion Labour will seek ‘improved’ post-Brexit trading terms with EU, Reeves says FT - Even Apple cannot explain why we need AI in our lives. A souped-up Siri and personalised emojis are coming but the most important question remains unanswered, and Apple scraps its Pay Later loan scheme US households' real income expectations hit the lowest levels in over a decade China’s tax man hands out decades-old bills to companies, hinting at funding shortage #GDX Gold equities have rarely been this cheap in the past 4 decades Fed's Harker said he expects one rate cut this year in his prepared remarks. However he noted that "two cuts, or none, for this year” were also quite possible." Benjamin Netanyahu dissolves war cabinet BoJ's Ueda kept the door open to a possible interest rate increase in July The RBA did not consider a cut at its June meeting - but it did consider a hike BOJ’s Ueda Keeps July Rate Hike Door Open Amid Skepticism (yahoo.com) The RBA did not consider a cut at its June meeting - but it did consider a hike (msn.com) JPM DESK: “.. While we had thought the market was setting up for a pullback based upon the price action during earnings season, narrowing breadth, reduced HF positioning, and the potential for markets to take some profits given the almost 32% gain in the $SPX since this bull run began in Oct 2023 (38.6% for $NDX), this has not come to fruition and the near-term market setup points to another leg higher being more probable than a pullback. The macro data should support this hypothesis into a seasonally strong July ..” French businesses court Marine Le Pen after taking fright at left’s policies Sophie Pedder on X: "A week after Emmanuel Macron decided to call a snap parliamentary election, the upcoming vote has turned into one of the most crucial in post-war French history. How will it play out? Some thoughts as France enters uncharted territory 1/8 Short🧵 https://t.co/UXbmk86t4T" / X China should pay for propping Russia's Ukraine war - Nato chief (bbc.com) Copper Slides to Eight-Week Low After More Soft Data From China - Bloomberg CFTC Orders Trafigura to Pay $55 Million for Fraud, Manipulation and Impeding Communications with the CFTC | CFTC ..Vitol, Glen, now Trafi all got fine for the same thing Even Apple cannot explain why we need AI in our lives (ft.com) Technology giant Apple scraps its Pay Later loan scheme in US - BBC News Benjamin Netanyahu dissolves war cabinet, officials say (msn.com) China’s tax man hands out decades-old bills to companies, hinting at funding shortage | South China Morning Post (scmp.com) UBS offers to repay 90% to clients hit by Greensill implosion - SWI swissinfo.ch CEO pay is rising faster than it has in a decade (qz.com) Labour will seek ‘improved’ post-Brexit trading terms with EU, Reeves says (msn.com) EU has 'moved on' from Brexit as Labour seeks closer ties (cityam.com) London overtakes Paris as the biggest stock market in Europe (msn.com) IRS plans to close 'abusive' tax loophole used by ultra-rich and raise $50 billion (qz.com) EURUSD held where it should have for the bulls - range narrowing

Week ahead : plenty of data all week, focus on France election, Bund-OAt spread leads markets, last week local eq markets lost 6-7% (banks got hit hard, CDS widening, highest levels since 2017 as Bund/OAT spread widened quite sharply, dragging EURO lower). USDCNH around 7.27 again, highest since Nov Tens of thousands of protesters took to the streets across France Saturday to oppose Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally, which is predicted to finish first in the upcoming snap legislative election called by President Emmanuel Macron >>> tough crowd to please! hence pressure likely to remain into election, as Le Pen offers free money for everyone.. #OATs and the #MAG7 play the safe heaven role, the big are now3 bigger than any other indexes outside US..pretty astonishing China's Retail Sales up 3.7% YoY in May (vs exp of 3% ), was largely offset by a smaller-than-exp incr in Fixed Asset Investment and Industrial Production The Fed’s pivot from hawkish to dovish and associated easing in financial conditions have boosted expectations for US consumer spending, see Apollo chart below and yet Uni of Michigan survey slipped to 65.6 in June (exp 72 Goldman tweaks up SPX price target to 5600 but the interesting reading is in the upside scenarios, Evercore ISI’s Julian Emanuel had been among the most bearish strategists on WS, he just boosted his year-end S&P 500 target to 6,000 from 4,750 while noting we are in the “early innings” of the AI revolution ) Goolsbee, Chicago Fed, cautioned that he still wants to see further progress on inflation, but sees the possibility of worsening conditions in manuf and agriculture, & Fed's Kashkari says 'reasonable' to predict December rate cut The 10 largest stocks in the S&P 500 now account for 37% of the market’s total capitalization, far exceeding the prior peak of 26% in 1999 >>> Big 3 are bigger than any exchange outside of the USA Netanyahu slams military plans for daily 'tactical pauses' to allow aid into Gaza EU leaders meet to decide top jobs in Brussels, von der Leyen poised for 2nd term UAE and India signed local currency settlement system Xi Jinping claimed US wants China to attack Taiwan WSJ-Pensions piled into Private Equity. Now they can’t get out Week Ahead: Macro data, BoE, China policy verdicts, FII activity, global cues among key market triggers this week (msn.com) French Bond Rout Deepens as Spreads Hit Widest Since 2017 (yahoo.com) General Election 2024 LIVE: Labour focuses on investment plans as Reform UK to unveil manifesto (yahoo.com) >>> #Hungparliament anyone ? Pensions Piled Into Private Equity. Now They Can’t Get Out. (msn.com) Goldman tweaks up SPX price target to 5600 but the interesting reading is in the upside scenarios. 1. In a “catch-up” scenario, the S&P 500 index would end the year at 5900. The equal-weight index multiple would expand to 18x, matching its 2018 pre-pandemic high. 2. In a scenario of continued mega-cap exceptionalism, the S&P 500 index would end the year at 6300 (+16%). Assuming a 16x NTM P/E for the equal-weight index and a 45% P/E premium for the market-cap index, the aggregate S&P 500 would trade at a forward P/E of 23x, 16% above today (89th %ile of 6 month returns). Local currency settlement system for rupee-dirham deal - News | Khaleej Times Netanyahu slams military plans for daily 'tactical pauses' to allow aid into Gaza (msn.com) Ukraine war latest: Putin makes 'absurd attempt to seduce West'; leaders call for Olympics truce | World News | Sky News EU leaders meet to decide top jobs in Brussels, von der Leyen poised for second term (msn.com) ECB in no rush to discuss French bond rescue, sources say | Reuters Fed's Kashkari says 'reasonable' to predict December rate cut (msn.com) Xi Jinping claimed US wants China to attack Taiwan (ft.com) Thousands Protest in France to Oppose Le Pen’s Far Right (msn.com) French bonds and bank stocks rocked by political turmoil | Reuters Will the US election be the next Black Swan event for global markets? – The Armchair Trader Always worth putting your hedge on early! since last Monday's call, clients feel relatively well hedged, although feeling is a lot of investors have hardly done anything. EURUSD BIG levels to hold 1.05-1.0650 area, EURCHF took most of the strain last week, French banks, OAT, credit, all pretty logical 061624-Chart.pdf (apolloacademy.com) 'The consensus is very bullish on the U.S consumer' / Apollo , and yet US consumer confidence little changed in June, University of Michigan says - Sharecast.com Investors' Options Toolkit | Saxo Group (home.saxo) Amazon's AI-powered Alexa isn't even close to being ready (qz.com) Donald Trump woos CEOs by promising corporate tax cuts (qz.com) Marco Rubio's name rises toward top of Donald Trump's VP shortlist (thehill.com)

Market will focus on France's national debt and its deficits now..with Germany not far behind >>> given FED on hold, one would think EURO, #EURUSD will find a few reasons to move down over next few weeks/months (chart below), or have a decent move down if the 'far right' gets in (5-10pct move would not be unconceivable if France really goes to extreme left or right..>>> EURUSD sub 1.0500 would be the beginning of possibly a huge long-term change #EURGBP already breaking down. France's s Left Unites to Challenge Macron, Le Pen for Power, Macron's party looks in real danger to be wiped out....Just as we start the EURO in Germany Budget stand-off pushes German coalition to brink. Ministers trying to reconcile stances on how to plug a massive financing gap that some estimate at up to €40bn The BOJ : could, from next meeting, reduce its purchases of Japanese government bonds after the next monetary policy meeting, scheduled to be held on July 30 and 31 >>> JPY weaker again, USDJPY heading for the highs again, and they will have to intervene again... or else, presser ongoing U.S PPI for final demand falls 0.2% in May; goods decrease 0.8%, services unchanged Jobless claims jumped to 242K, the highest since August 2023 Oil prices could drop to $60 per barrel in 2025 as world faces 'substantial surplus,' Citi says Ukraine-Russia war: Putin to deliver speech after US and Ukraine agree major 10-year security agreement - and Russia suffers 'astronomical' losses UK General election 2024 live: Farage claims Tories ‘about to implode’ as Reform overtakes party in poll For anyone worrying about +/- 25bps >>> Powell: "If you look back in five or ten years and try to pull out the significant to the U.S. economy of one 25-basis-point cut, you have quite a job on your hands." >>> Powell importantly noted that there are base effects for later this year that will work against inflation progress New cycle high for S&P 500 Tech sector's fwd P/E, which is now at 30+, the highest levels since 2002 (got to 40 in the crazy 2000-01 days) Ukraine-Russia war: Putin to deliver speech after US and Ukraine agree major 10-year security agreement - and Russia suffers 'astronomical' losses | World News | Sky News Budget stand-off pushes German coalition to brink (ft.com) Jobless claims jump to highest level in 10 months (msn.com) Bank of Japan set to reduce JGB purchases, stands pat on interest rate (cnbc.com) G7 summit: Leaders to focus on migration, Africa, AI (msn.com) G7 leaders agree to lend Ukraine billions backed by Russia’s frozen assets. (msn.com) Long-term consequences ? So G7 announced a $50B loan to Ukraine, 2mos ago US approved $61B to Ukraine, the goal is to make it Trump proof. Emboldened Gazans Express Anger at Hamas, Israel Over Cease-Fire Talks Impasse (msn.com) From power play to gamble, the history of snap elections in France (rfi.fr) French left-wing parties agree to form 'Popular Front' for parliament election (msn.com) Macron’s party at risk of wipeout, say election projections (ft.com) Producer Price Index News Release summary - 2024 M05 Results (bls.gov) Oil prices steady amid divergent OPEC and IEA demand projections | Saxo Group (home.saxo) Red Sea attacks: Ship severely flooded after Houthi attack (bbc.com) Labour pledges to retain triple lock and undertake pensions review (yahoo.com) General election 2024 live: Farage claims Tories ‘about to implode’ as Reform overtakes party in poll | The Independent German government plans supplementary budget for 2024, Bild says | Reuters France finds itself facing worries about its national debt and its deficits | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog (wordpress.com) Warren Buffett's Strategic Acquisition of Occidental Petroleum Shares (yahoo.com) Swiss regulator opens bankruptcy proceedings against FlowBank SA - FX News Group Polestar UK Sales Plunge Nearly 70% Year-on-Year in May - EV (eletric-vehicles.com) Boeing is 'too big to fail,' Bank of America says (qz.com) Microsoft 'accepts responsibility' for cybersecurity failures, top exec says (qz.com) The secret life of Jimmy Zhong, who stole – and lost – more than $3b (cnbc.com) Old but still a good watch Wells Fargo fires more than dozen employees for allegedly faking work, Bloomberg News reports (msn.com) Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest predicts Tesla stock will surge 1,345% over the next five years. Elon Musk says it’s an ‘extremely challenging, but achievable’ target | Fortune #ARKK not exactly done well last few years... on Cathie is winning.. EURUSD - break sub 1.07-1.0600 area could well start a new trend lower, sub 1.05 and many euro longs will throw in the towel

G7 Italia 2024 starts today in Borgo Egnazia Apulia FED hesitant, slightly hawkish FOMC meeting, less convinced about the path ahead >>> IMHO, anything goes, FED is data watching, could go either way, they expect 1 cut in 2024 but added one in 2025 in the dots, ''the economy is still strong'' was mentioned a few times #highfrolonger which probably means if/when something really changes they maybe quicker to act >>>> markets, UST yields and USD dipped on CPI and came back into end of FOMC close, yet equity markets, mega caps really continued higher, NASDAQ leading higher Only eight of the 19 FOMC participants expected two cuts this year. In contrast, Chair Powell downplayed the dot plot in his press conference, ''noting that most FOMC participants did not react to this morning’s CPI data'' He emphasized that the 2024 rate projections were a “close call.” Breakdown of what the 19 FOMC participants saw for 2024: 4 went for no cut, 7 went for one cut and 8 voted for two cuts >>> ''hawkish dot plots'' U.S CPI : was 1st time since October report that the core monthly CPI undershot median forecast, and 1st time since Sep 2021 that super-core inflation showed a monthly decline >>> most elements of it all had a slight dovish tilt France's Macron defends decision on snap legislative elections, urges voters to defeat far-right, going to get wilder, ALL about alliances within the -3- sides Air France–KLM tops world chart of sustainable aviation fuel usage Rheinmetall opens repair facility for combat vehicles in Ukraine Enormous deposit of rare earth elements discovered in heart of ancient Norwegian volcano Buenos Aires rocked by clashes over Milei reforms UK's Labour to close tax loophole for thousands of private equity investors US expands Russia sanctions, targets chips sent via China Swiss parliament rejects European climate ruling IEA projects 8 million barrel per day oil surplus by 2030 >>> this is big DoubleLine’s Gundlach says he's 'less confident' in Fed delivering one rate cut in 2024 (msn.com) El-Erian, Michele Hear Fed Whispering ‘September’ Even If Powell Won't Say It - Bloomberg Biden heads to G7 summit focused on Ukraine aid, China's support for Russia (msn.com) France's Macron defends decision on snap legislative elections, urges voters to defeat far-right (msn.com) The elections is turning into a series of spectacular train-wrecks on the French Right. Republican implosion the other day, now Zemmour's far right party came unstuck Head of French conservative party expelled as recomposition of the right accelerates (lemonde.fr) IEA projects 8 million barrel per day oil surplus by 2030 (msn.com) this IS HUGE US expands Russia sanctions, targets chips sent via China (msn.com) Air France–KLM tops world chart of sustainable aviation fuel usage (balkangreenenergynews.com) Enormous deposit of rare earth elements discovered in heart of ancient Norwegian volcano (msn.com) Gerald Group Says It Was Hit by $49 Million Tin Fraud - Bloomberg Apple market cap passes Microsoft after AI launch at WWDC (qz.com) Tesla investors will vote on Elon Musk's pay. What Wall Street is saying (qz.com) Migros vor Dammbruch: Am Dienstag kriegen 300 oder mehr die Kündigung – Inside Paradeplatz AI's looming climate cost: Energy demand surges amid data center race - Nikkei Asia Rheinmetall opens repair facility for combat vehicles in Ukraine (defensenews.com) Rishi Sunak aide placed bet on election date days before announcement | General election 2024 | The Guardian 'It would be the death of entrepreneurship': City alarm over Labour capital gains hike (cityam.com) Buenos Aires rocked by clashes over President Milei reforms (bbc.com) Swiss parliament rejects European climate ruling - SWI swissinfo.ch

French election, volatile few weeks ahead : OAT's weaker, Macron's election gamble triggering anger and chaos in his party (and others). Republican leader talked about making an alliance with Le Pen (eventually denied), there were rumours of Macron resigning (denied), clearly a LOT going underneath, it's all about alliances! >>> but what a gamble Macron has taken, not lost on the most senior EU officials in Paris & Brussels.. >>> BUND vs OAT spread 10y is what the market is keeping an eye on ! EURUSD - been consolidating for 18months, will a confirmed move to the right in France trigger a sharp EURO fall ? possibly >>>>point is if you need to hedge, hedge now (spot and vols super attractive) EU to impose tariffs of up to 25% on Chinese EVs, US Weighs More Limits on China’s Access to Chips Needed for AI Pimco expects more US regional bank failures as the "real wave of distress is just starting" Bernie Sanders wants to subpoena Novo Nordisk over high Ozempic and Wegovy prices. Novo Nordisk said a subpoena is unnecessary because the company has cooperated with all of the senator's requests China’s consumer inflation remained stable in May, while the decline in producer prices showed signs of easing, indicating sluggish demand amid a prolonged property downturn in the world’s second-largest economy Russell 2000 / S&P 500 keeps plunging to new cycle lows ... ratio now back to where it was in April 2001, Growth vs Value , Megacaps vs Smallcaps, pretty amazing, Ai and AAPL doing the job, #KRE underperforming SPX by the largest margin ever, etc and concentration of risk getting even more pronounced #NFIB Small business optimism improved in May to best level this year NatGas back to highest prices since Nov FOMC Meeting: All eyes on Federal Reserve chief Powell today (msn.com) France 10-Year Government Bond Yield - Quote - Chart - Historical Data - News (tradingeconomics.com) huge French govt debt beginning to matter, rating agencies will be all over this - warnings coming in Moody's issues France credit rating warning over snap elections - SWI swissinfo.ch US small business sentiment up in May, but looming election clouds outlook (msn.com) China’s consumer inflation steady, factory prices dip in May (msn.com) EU to impose tariffs of up to 25% on Chinese EVs, FT reports (msn.com) US Weighs More Limits on China’s Access to Chips Needed for AI (msn.com) Consumer Optimism About Stocks Hits Three-Year High, NY Fed Survey Shows - Bloomberg Législatives 2024 : Jordan Bardella annonce un "accord" entre le RN et LR avec "plusieurs dizaines de députés" - France Bleu France's conservative leader: Want to form "alliance" with Le Pen's National Rally - SWI swissinfo.ch France needs clarity around budget strategy after snap election, says ECB's Villeroy | Reuters Most Private Equity Investors Fear Cash Is Stuck in Zombie Funds - Bloomberg Labour’s Rachel Reeves decries ‘14 years of political chaos’ in Tory manifesto response | Politics News | Sky News Rishi Sunak went without ‘lots of things’ including Sky TV as a child | Rishi Sunak | The Guardian yeuhh Apple's AI reveal at WWDC boosts stock 6% to all-time high (qz.com) Pimco Warns Of More Regional Bank Failures On Property Pain (fa-mag.com) Bernie Sanders eyes Novo Nordisk subpoena over Ozempic and Wegovy prices (qz.com) Swiss parliament backs plan to deport rejected Eritrean refugees - SWI swissinfo.ch Ex-Judge Says Hong Kong «Becoming a Totalitarian State» (finews.asia) Could Roaring Kitty face more SEC scrutiny this time around? – The Armchair Trader EURUSD - been consolidating for 18months, will a confirmed move to the right in France trigger a sharp EURO fall ? possibly, point is if you need to hedge, hedge now

This week, the European Union is expected to reveal provisional tariff rates for Chinese electric vehicles U.S CPI expectations for tomorrow (below), market focused on disinflation process, so markets more prone to react to disappointing/higher inflation data, with equity markets sitting on ATH's, dot plots, guidance all will be scrutinised as usual, about 2 cuts in sight for 2024, Powell likely to balance and stick to that view overall Israel latest : Blinken on a 3day tour in ME, asking leaders to press Hama for a cease-fire and pushing Netanyahu to embrace a deal, UN Security Council backs Israel-Hamas ceasefire plan #USDMXN was up 10% or so last week, ''most popular carry trade of the last 2years'' ..came unstuck, overblown narrative with 'onshoring' probably, these do not tend to happen on their own so do watch out if 'other carries' get challenged.. >>> bottom line politics do move markets, EU elections tame reaction so far, the real deal comes late June/early July with France and UK Danish offshore wind hit with price increase of EUR 6bn: ”There’s not a penny to be made from this" NZ Government to reverse oil and gas exploration ban France :  Far-right leader Marine Le Pen’s National Rally is seen garnering 34% of voter intentions in the first round of upcoming French legislative elections, compared with 19% for President Emmanuel Macron’s ruling party, according to a poll - Bloomberg *The left-leaning grouping that includes France Unbowed, the Communists, Socialists and Greens would get 22%, the survey by Toluna Harris Interactive for Challenges, M6 and RTL said on Monday #TSLA CEO Elon Musk's $56 billion pay package unlikely to receive shareholder approval warns Bernstein #marketconcentration S&P 500's Top 10 Stocks now account for an all-time high 35% of the whole SPX500 US buys 3 million barrels of oil for Strategic Petroleum Reserve...as expected! 5 Insights From June’s Upcoming FOMC Interest Rate Decision | Seeking Alpha US buys 3 million barrels of oil for Strategic Petroleum Reserve | Reuters Yup around low $70-75 it's cheap.. Technical analysis EURUSD GBPUSD EURGBP hit by heavy selling | Saxo Group (home.saxo) COT: Brent long cut to ten-year low; Metals left exposed to end of week slump | Saxo Group (home.saxo) US CPI and Fed Previews: Delays, but Dovish | Saxo Group (home.saxo) EU is expected to unveil tariff plans for Chinese EVs this week (cnbc.com) Share buyback rush approaches 23 years in 5 months, supporting stock prices - Japan Keizai Shimbun (nikkei.com) France's Macron leaning towards backing von der Leyen as EU chief, sources say | Reuters UK unemployment rate rises to 4.4% as labour market cools, but wage growth sticky – business live | Business | The Guardian Apple WWDC: Tim Cook introduces new AI system 'Apple Intelligence' (qz.com) Danish offshore wind hit with price increase of EUR 6bn: ”There’s not a penny to be made from this" (energywatch.com) Government to reverse oil and gas exploration ban | Beehive.govt.nz Paul Johnson on X: "There isn’t £40bn a year to be had from reducing interest paid on reserves at Bank of England. Not even half that. Can’t “fund” tens of billions of tax cuts like this. We don’t want a rerun of September 2022" / X this can be 'discussed' in all countries, including U.S.. watch those banking share prices Benjamin Leruth on X: "I've been thinking a lot about Macron's decision to call for snap elections, and the consequences it may have on French and European politics, and I think I've cracked the code. https://t.co/dPdrb1xdxL" / X All about France, why now etc Roger McNamee on X: "There is a real opportunity for journalists to get to the bottom of FB’s coverup of the actions that began with Cambridge Analytica and led to interference in 2016 election. Kudos to @jason_kint for staying on top of this. Helpful explanatory thread." / X Keller-Busse schlägt CS-Bankern mitten ins Gesicht – Inside Paradeplatz The world’s rules-based order is cracking (economist.com) Human-rights lawyers are trying to save laws meant to tame violent rulers #WTI crude won't go lower

Week ahead : EU digesting election results, Earthquake in France, the center holds in Europe though, FOMC and BoJ meeting, U.S and Chinese inflation data, G7 summit in Bari coming up, EU-China trade war and usual raft of CB speakers >>>> GOLD got hit on China news and strong NFP Friday, Equity markets in europe could well have a reaction lower, you'd think EURO might suffer a little going forward too, sell rallies in EURO (EURGBP breaking down a multi year support around 0.8500 area) China’s central bank didn’t buy any gold last month, ending a massive buying spree that had run for 18 months after the precious metal surged to a record high OPEC+ Plan Turns Hedge Funds Least Bullish on Crude in a Decade Norway's Sovereign Wealth Fund, which owned approximately 0.98% of $TSLA shares worth $7.72 billion at the end of 2023, is voting against Tesla CEO Elon Musk's $56 billion pay package Gold is getting harder to find as miners struggle to excavate more, World Gold Council says Ukrainian warplane fires weapon at target inside Russia for first time U.S. Added 272K Jobs in May, Blowing Past Estimates; Bitcoin Pulls Back From 2-Month High (yahoo.com) EU elections: What the European results and far-right surge tells us (bbc.com) Far-right parties won big in European Parliament elections yesterday (qz.com) Explainer-What's at stake in Macron's shock snap election call? (msn.com) Belgian PM De Croo announces resignation after heavy election loss | Euronews EU vote in Germany sees far-right AfD in second place – DW – 06/09/2024 Italy's PM Meloni solidifies top spot in EU vote -exit poll (msn.com) Election 2024: Reform UK will overtake Tories in polls, Ipsos boss predicts (msn.com) ITV News on X: "‘I’m going to stop you now. This is ridiculous’ Tory chair Richard Holden repeatedly refuses to deny his candidate selection was a stitch-up The senior Conservative was very keen to talk about comments made on schools by Labour's Emily Thornberry https://t.co/bSVCuXblXH" / X (twitter.com) CH - Referendums on 9 June: See all the results at a glance - Blick Narendra Modi sworn in for third term as prime minister of India | India | The Guardian Narrow win, lost grip on hard majority Mexico ruling party wins lower house super-majority but falls short in Senate | Reuters Lost super majority Poll: Joe Biden, Donald Trump tied nationally, battleground states (thehill.com) China takes aim at EU’s planes and farmers as trade war brews – POLITICO Ukrainian warplane fires weapon at target inside Russia for first time | World News | Sky News Benny Gantz, man in the middle squeezed out by Israel's Netanyahu (msn.com) Hedge Funds Turn Least Bullish on Crude in a Decade on OPEC+ Plan - Bloomberg Apple’s WWDC, Elon Musk’s Tesla payday, tech earnings: Markets this week (qz.com) Palantir CEO Alex Karp talks AI and the company's 'crucial role' in war (yahoo.com) China's central bank paused gold purchases in May after 18 months of buying (zawya.com) China bigger than UK...but there you go... Royal Mint reports huge spike in gold sales after election was called as investors look to keep their cash safe | This is Money Gold miners struggle with excavating more, says World Gold Council (cnbc.com) Palladium not written off the road yet, miners say - MINING.COM World hits streak of record temperatures as UN warns of 'climate hell' | Reuters Sudan could soon have 10 million internally displaced people, UN agency says | Reuters #eurgbp - should help #GBPCH gain some strength again too

As expected, ECB as expected, joined BoC, SNB, Riksbnak and cut rates, while raising inflation forecast for 2024/2025 (ruling out Jul & Sep cut), Lagarde said she couldn’t confirm a “dialing-back phase” was under way, 2-3mos of waiting for a move either way in data India election ; election were widely wrong, foreign policy likely to be mor e measured and BJP did worse in states with the most devisive politics China’s exports grow more than expected in May, up by 7.6% JPM : Growth rate of global economy accelerates to fastest in a year during May BofA : BHP's recent approach to Anglo American focused the market on the scarcity of high-quality copper assets and also the value of owning more copper production into an expected bull market. Energy transition (Decarb = increased metal intensity), emergent India demand, other "new" uses (AI, data centres). and supply shocks >>> bullish metal, calling it to $12,000/t ($5.44/lb). JPM DESK: “.. The stronger than expected ISM-Services print seemingly ended all recessionary/stagflationary commentary and put us back on firm Soft Landing/Goldilocks footing. An ‘everything rally’ ensued and now we are left at a new all-time high with another important catalyst coming on today. At this point, it feels like anything in the 150k – 200k range will be a non-event and that we need to see a print under 100k or over 300k before we trigger a narrative shift.” UBS upgraded its precious metal forecasts quite significantly this week >> Gold price up 20-30% to $2775 over 3years and Silver by 70% to $40 by 2026 BBG : The Fed can’t conquer inflation if Washington keeps on spending Jeffrey Gundlach: Never-ending debt-based scheme is pushing people to gold, Bitcoin South Africa opposition group claims Russia is funding Jacob Zuma’s party Former president’s upstart MK party accused of being extremely well financed RBA Can and Will Bring Down Inflation, Deputy Governor Says Bondholders sue Switzerland in US over Credit Suisse AT1s France to Supply Ukraine with Mirage-2000 Jets and Train Pilots #NVDA volumes yesterday as big as the next 20 stocks combined! >> also a sign ow volumes across board China’s plan to sell cheap EVs to the rest of the world China's exports grow more than expected in May, up by 7.6% (cnbc.com) RBA Can and Will Bring Down Inflation, Deputy Governor Says | Financial Post Bondholders Sue Switzerland in US Over Credit Suisse AT1s (yahoo.com) South Korea's Gold Bar Vending Machines Bring Investors to Convenience Stores - Bloomberg France to Supply Ukraine with Mirage-2000 Jets and Train Pilots (kyivpost.com) Jeffrey Gundlach: Never-ending debt-based scheme is pushing people to gold, Bitcoin | Kitco News 0d3865a6a27f46d18ea06fa4de99f39b (spglobal.com) Political education, political education, political education ... time to get serious - Alastair Campbell Indian elections 2024 - Opinion - Business Recorder (brecorder.com) South Africa opposition group claims Russia is funding Jacob Zuma’s party (ft.com) Swiss Inflation Matching 2024 High Erodes Case for SNB Rate Cut - SWI swissinfo.ch Switzerland and Italy sign tax rules for cross-border commuters   - SWI swissinfo.ch Raiffeisen: Probelauf mit 38-Stunden-Woche – Inside Paradeplatz Apple’s Worldwide Developers Conference starts June 10: What to know (qz.com) Microsoft, Nvidia, and OpenAI to face U.S. antitrust probe (qz.com) Tech mogul Mike Lynch cleared over multi-billion dollar sale of Autonomy to HP (yahoo.com)

Like clockwork >>> slightly softer data (ISM non manuf was better yesterday mind), OIL declines and UST yields follow, and we are about to get a few rate cuts, what's not to enjoy for equity markets overall #NASDAQ #SPX hit new records Bank of Canada, as expected, cut to 4.75% - expect a further 50 to 75bps of cuts in the second half of the year #NVDA gas gained more than $1trn market cap over the last 30 trading days! bigger than #APPL >>> Nvidia volume yesterday was about as much as the next 10 most traded stocks combined together...totally insane really Barrick Gold, the world's 2nd largest gold producer, trades at a near 30% discount. This is the lowest Barrick has ever been relative to gold Powell likes to talk about the ratio of job openings per unemployed worker as an indicator of tight labor markets, it is now back to 2019 pre-COVID levels at around 1.25 /after been near 2 two years ago China’s hydrogen fuel cell vehicle market is revving up, with sales expected to hit 10,000 units this year, 50,000 units by 2025 and more than one million by 2035 UBS raises silver price forecasts, expects outperformance vs gold GS: A flood of cash from passive equity allocations will pour into the stock market in early July, setting up a continuing rally through the early summer. In addition, share prices should benefit from strong seasonal trends and rising engagement from retail investors Container freight rates from #China are 3xhigher than in Jan from 2k to 6k, inflation data key ahead With a net inflow of $887 million yesterday, the U.S.-based Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded their second-best day yet As it stands : total market cap.. 1. $MSFT = $3.1 trn 2. $NVDA = $3 trn 3. $AAPL = $3 trn 4. $GOOG = $2.1 trn 5. $AMZN = $1.9 trn Factbox-What you need to know about the D-Day 80th anniversary ceremonies - SWI swissinfo.ch D-Day - Normandy Invasion, Facts & Significance | HISTORY brilliant pics, videos, history Yellen to warn of 'significant risks' from use of AI in finance (msn.com) Bank of Canada first to cut rates in G7, economist bets are on another in July (yahoo.com) Traders are desperate for copper deals and miners are cashing in - MINING.COM Goldman Sachs (GS) Sees Flood of Cash Fueling US Stock Market’s Summer Rally - Bloomberg Pierre-Yves Lombard: UHNWIs Seeking Unlisted Banks (finews.asia) #SAXO Nvidia passes Apple in market cap (cnbc.com) China Could Have a Million Hydrogen-Powered Vehicles on Its Roads by 2035 (caixinglobal.com) UBS raises silver price forecasts, expects outperformance vs gold (msn.com) Ukraine strikes into Russia with US weapons for first time, official says (thehill.com) Musk Gives Explanation for Why He Diverted Chips From Tesla to X - Bloomberg Far from convincing The FTC claims Facebook withheld information when buying Instagram and WhatsApp as it scrambles to rescue Meta break-up suit | Fortune but no-one seems to care, slap on the wrist and they move on Reform UK pulls to within two points of Tories in latest YouGov poll | Politics News | Sky News Starmer says Sunak broke ministerial code with £2,000 Labour tax claim | General election 2024 | The Guardian >>> Tory supporting paper Spectator has accused the Tories of using “nonsense figures” in relation to Rishi Sunak’s £2,000 Labour tax rise claim California Condo Prices Crash by Up to 40% in Some Areas - Newsweek Mexican woman mayor killed just hours after first female president elected | CNN Higher mushroom consumption is associated with a lower risk of cancer | ScienceDaily Old but real Snow in June on Scotland's mountains as Arctic air sweeps in (bbc.com) Mad..! 'Alpha Uno': Swiss fighter jets take off and land on motorway - SWI swissinfo.ch

China’s services sector expanded at its fastest pace since July last year, the Caixin survey showed, pointing to resilience that may alleviate concerns over the economy’s outlook after weak official figures 2y inflation expectations in the US are back to lowest since the start of the year >>> cooling down BoC meeting this afternoon, will they be the 1st of the G7 CB to cut in this cycle (25bp cut mostly priced in..) JOLTs indicated that Job Openings declined from 8.49 million in March to 8.06 million in April, compared to analyst consensus of 8.34 million >> cooling down The U.S manufacturing side of the economy appears to have stalled / ISM, has been below 50 for about 18months.. GameStop whale 'Roaring Kitty' may be removed on E*Trade over anipulation concerns Elon Musk accused of selling $7.5 billion of Tesla stock before releasing disappointing sales data that plunged the share price to two-year low Crude oil is sharply lower this week after the OPEC+ meeting as the market appears to be well supplied + relatively soft/mild/slower macro economic data >>> time to refill the #SPR Mr President Equity markets mixed : lots going on underneath, decent profit taking in commods, energy, oil, transport, hotels, auto retailers, airlines, while mega caps, shipping doing well and NVDA makes new highs every day >>> #NVDA Nvidia accounts for about 40% of the S&P 500's gain YTD, read that again... Morgan Stanley ditched its positive view on Mexican stocks following the election of Claudia Sheinbaum, the incoming leftist leader who is expected to take office with stronger-than-expected legislative support Technical analysis metals facing larger corrections | Saxo Group (home.saxo) Morgan Stanley Cuts Mexico Stocks in ‘Unprecedented’ Moment (yahoo.com) Copper price falls through $10,000 as exchange inventories keep rising - MINING.COM JOLTs Job Openings Drop To 8.06 Million, Missing Analyst Expectations | FXEmpire ‘The manufacturing side of the economy appears to have stalled,’ ISM says - MarketWatch China's robust services activity drives up employment, Caixin PMI shows (msn.com) Latest Oil Market News and Analysis for April 4 - Bloomberg Russian Oil Finds New Site for Controversial Cargo Switching - Bloomberg Elon Musk accused of selling $7.5 billion of Tesla stock before releasing disappointing sales data that plunged the share price to two-year low (yahoo.com) GameStop Whale 'Roaring Kitty' May Be Removed on E*Trade Over Manipulation Concerns (yahoo.com) had to happen eventually...good game good game, gone too far Google's second leak reveals major privacy concerns (qz.com) 'We want to build everybody's AI chips': Intel CEO talks of regaining market share (cnbc.com) Gentlemen please! Sunak claims narrow win over Starmer in tetchy first UK general election TV debate tedious stuff, the 2K tax bill stuff is rubbish fwiw Will Biden's new border measures be enough to change voters' minds? | AP News Donald Trump Says It Is 'Very Possible' He Will Imprison Political Opponents - Newsweek #WTI shouldn't really go below $70 area - if it did, it probably isn't great news - economically speaking