Markets : Bessent may have to choose (UST's or USD), IMHO you can't have it both ways, weaker U.S ISM manufacturing , WS fears foreign tax in budget bill , US pushes countries for best offers by Wednesday as tariff deadline looms, #Gold #XAG #XPT #PALL all nicely up, #SILJ #GDX beginning to look like a decent break UP in tall this , copper should follow, decent JGB auction, but Chinese data was softer overnight Powell said: "The end of the Bretton Woods era in the 1970s, fundamentally changed the conduct of monetary policy." The signals are all over the place. Why bring this up now? Treasury secretary Scott Bessent insists US will ‘never default’ on its debt >>> ....Not nominally.. if the debt is safe, the currency is unsafe #USD Canada Ditches U.S. Defense for $1.25 Trillion EU Pact China's rare earth restrictions: More collateral damage from US export controls. EU and U.S to meet on Wednesday on trade, Eu strongly regrest U.S decision to raise steel tariffs, EU prepared to impose countermeasures is talks fail - the stage is set.. Pantheon / Have bunds considered that Germany spending 5% on defence is €250B per year, at 2024 GDP. Assuming a 10Y implementation of the infrastructure fund, that's €300B a year, just on those two. That implies, holding other components equal, a 6x rise in annual net bund issuance BBG / A gloomy outlook for US assets. DoubleLine joined Pimco and TCW in shunning 30-year Treasuries, shifting to shorter maturities amid worries about US debt >>> finally coming through with what's been pretty obvious for a while #UST supply...it's the bonds or the currency, Bessent and Trump actually 'welcome' a weaker USD Malaysian PM Anwar delivered a quiet but firm rebuttal to US pressure "I just got back from China last week," Dimon said. "They're not scared, folks. This notion that they're going to come bow to America, I wouldn't count on that." There’s a total of $698 billion worth of homes for sale in the U.S., up 20.3% from a year ago and the highest dollar amount ever China's rare earth restrictions: More collateral damage from US export controls China's May factory activity unexpectedly shrinks as tariffs dent sentiment China says U.S. undermined Geneva trade deal after Trump accusations ISM Manufacturing PMI shows US. production weakening in May Wall Street fears foreign tax in budget bill may reduce allure of US assets BOJ's Ueda signals readiness to raise rates if growth re-accelerates | Reuters (1) Gold Telegraph ⚡ on X: "Federal Reserve Jerome Powell said: "The end of the Bretton Woods era in the 1970s, fundamentally changed the conduct of monetary policy." The signals are all over the place. Why bring this up now? 🤔 https://t.co/bly9BTvTb6 " / X Trump doesn't like TACO. USD breaking down? | Saxo Market Call Canada Ditches U.S. Defense for $1.25 Trillion EU Pact Copper price must double to meet future mining needs — study - MINING.COM Trump advisers say tariffs 'not going away' amid legal fight 'UK must do all it can to minimise negative Brexit effects', says Bank of England Governor German border police's expulsion of asylum seekers unlawful, court rules | Reuters Dutch far-right leader Wilders threatens to quit government coalition | Reuters 𝘊𝘰𝘳𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘦 on X: "At Shangri-La, 🇲🇾 Malaysian PM Anwar delivered a quiet but firm rebuttal to US pressure: “Our approach is one of active non-alignment… not to set one power against another, but to maximize our own strategic space.” Translation: ASEAN doesn’t buy Hegseth’s Cold War script. https://t.co/5JgsvOHpPv " / X Mount Etna erupts leaving tourists fleeing for their lives | The Standard Valterra Platinum: Shares rise on London debut after Anglo American demerger Barchart on X: "BREAKING 🚨: U.S. Housing Market Home Sellers are now sitting on $700 Billion worth of inventory, the largest amount ever recorded 👀 https://t.co/CSW9jrLjK0 " / X

Markets : UKR/RU drones attacks deep into Russia, Bessent unhappy with China (rare earth), DOGE brought nothing (probably a NET COST), BoJ warning on JGB (JPY), NVDA's earnings need some 'clarification' (must follow story!), chaos in France as their club wins the CL, go figure >>>> equity markets rallied about 1pct into month-end close, looks like giving that up on open this week, SPX500 trading just under 5900, big picture, valuations are high, too high given macro picture and geopolitics (lighten up on risk, hedge some exposure and wait for opportunities) Even if the Supreme Court rules against the Trump administration on tariffs, the US effective average tariff rate would still settle in the 15-18% range, by JP Morgan estimates.  Tariffs are a central pillar to Trump’s economic agenda and the administration will likely turn to other available options to impose tariffs Trump : "We're not looking to make sneakers and t shirts. We want to make military equipment.” - Trump Does anyone want to tell Donald that the U.S. produces more military equipment annually than the rest of the world combined? Bessent : China is "withholding some of the products that they agreed to release during our agreement." >>> basically...admitting that the US cant impose further tariffs to China without the U.S suffering economically... NVDA’s revenue from Sing reached a record high of $9 billion last quarter — that's 20% of total revenue , and doesn't include an additional $5.5 billion in sales to China and HK. This is a total of $15 bn, a 3rd of all revenue last Q, is tied to China... >>>> NVIDIA Warns It May Struggle to Compete in China’s AI Market if Restrictions Persist, Raising Risk of a Business Foreclosure Marco Rubio officially announced that anyone who criticizes Israel will NOT be granted a visa to enter the United States The Bank of Japan has boosted its provisions for JGB losses - braced for higher rates #USDJPY should head south again, together with geopolitics, equity should be weaker #DOGE Trump is now reportedly asking if DOGE is all just “bullshit” after it was revealed that it is on track to cost taxpayers more money than it supposedly saved. “Was it all bullshit?” Trump asked aides Musk’s interview went great: Reporter: What is your thought on the ban of foreign students, you were one of those kids, right? Musk: “I think we want to stick to talking about spaceships.” Reporter: I was told that any topic is good. Musk: “Well no.” Morgan Stanley sees the Dollar falling ~10% on slowing US growth and amid continued uncertainty over Dollar's safe-haven status >>> there will be an increasing amount of investment bank coming up with similar calls..The U.S. Dollar is currently 15% overvalued, according to Goldman Sachs Ukraine drones 'emerged from trucks' before strikes on bombers during major attack in Russia - BBC News Ukraine stages audacious attack on airfields deep in Russian territory The Bank of Japan has boosted its provisions for JGB losses - braced for higher rates — TradingView News (1) Spencer Hakimian on X: "“The deficit is already lower than last year and will continue to decline over the next four years.” - Scott Bessent Straight up lies. Shameless. https://t.co/YreaCXL6dO " / X Why Scott Bessent wants to make it easier for banks to own Treasurys (1) The Kobeissi Letter on X: "US Treasury Secretary Bessent just now: China is "withholding some of the products that they agreed to release during our agreement." He confirms these products are rare earth minerals and says "maybe it's a glitch in the system, maybe it's intentional." Is China violating the https://t.co/kyzf0Tk4s6 " / X Elon Musk on DOGE and why he doesn't want to "take responsibility for everything the administration's doing" - CBS News NVIDIA Warns It May Struggle to Compete in China's AI Market if Restrictions Persist, Raising Risk of a Business Foreclosure Allies cancel orders of F-35s, the fighter jets that will cost $2 trillion Nick Clegg says asking artists for use permission would ‘kill’ the AI industry | The Verge Already taken, big Ai firms too big now already, law is lightyears behind, businesses develop in months rather than decades in the 21st century, the law changes still based on 19th century style.. Melting Permafrost in Siberia is Threatening Russia’s Energy Industry — International Relations Review Perma not so perma anymore.. PSG win Champions League: Two dead and hundreds of arrests across France following final | Football News | Sky Sports Man attacks Colorado crowd with firebombs, 8 people injured Nationalist Nawrocki wins Polish presidential election – POLITICO Sources: Mediators pressing Hamas to withdraw their objections to Witkoff deal | Israel National News Fruit and veg from EU set to get cheaper as UK axes border checks in Brexit reset

Most of Donald Trump’s global tariffs were deemed illegal by the US Court of International Trade, that could throw the president’s global trade policy into disarray. The White House will appeal the ruling, which laid out a 10-day deadline for the levies to be stopped, it will now be followed by an appeal process (who knows with Trump who de facto owns the supreme court..) and President Trump's budget bill is about to meet the realities of the Senate, where the rules of reconciliation could help Democrats force changes to the bill >>> there are 3-4hours till Donald wakes up and will start to tweet....stay tuned Dario Amodei  — CEO of Anthropic, one of the world's most powerful creators of artificial intelligence — has a blunt, scary warning for the U.S. government and all of us: AI could wipe out half of all entry-level white-collar jobs — and spike unemployment to 10-20% in the next one to five years , Amodei told us in an interview from his San Francisco office Markets : NVDA beat (what else, although the stock price is near highs again, althought GROSS margins down from 71% to 61%..if you want some negative), '' There is no justification for this type of equity multiple given restrictive monetary policy, trade war and macro uncertainty'' (JPM), If Putin doesn’t watch out, Trump might be forced to go ALL CAPS on him sooner or later, yesterday Trump ordered U.S chip software suppliers to stop selling to China (doesn't make any economic or strategic sense really), Trump clamping down on foreign students too (its really about China) >>> UST30y 5+ again, equity not far off highs, seems a little too bullish but hey, USD rebounded too on FOMC minutes (on hold..) and tariffs ruling (as FX clauses in future trade deal less likely #JGB's are the 'captain' now in bond world (UST's 2-3years ago) : Japan’s verbal YCC (Yield Curve Control), IMHO, is not a signal of strength or stability that should reassure ' bond investors' in Japan and globally, this action is more of a signal of systemic strain BlackRock issues a rare warning about the quantum computing threat to Bitcoin in their latest iShares Bitcoin Trust filing >>> you cannot ''quantum'' Physical GOLD #XAUUSD Saylor says on chain proof-of-reserves a ‘bad idea’ due to security risks >>> reminder: he was found guilty of accounting fraud in 2001 Ramaphosa’s treatment at the White House cemented that the U.S. is writing itself out of the African continent’s future Lavrov: Ukraine-Russia direst talks will resume thanks to support from the US, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey. The first round after resumption took place on May 16 in Istanbul Walter Isaacson predicts inevitable merger of xAI and Tesla Germany to fund long-range weapons in Ukraine, says Merz There are many, but this could be one of the best headline yesterday : “I went to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and UAE, and we brought back $5.1 trillion. So I made that money in about two hours.” - Trump Good news guys. Vague CapEx commitments now count as after tax free cash flow The best part of the news cycle this week is the introduction of TACO - that’s going to stick around and annoy him >>> “The open air grifting feels like it has now reached bubble status. The collective invulnerability is palpable with participants at all levels believing it is unstoppable. No one believes the crowd’s moral compass will swing back. Put simply, it feels like something big is about to happen.” Behind the Curtain: Top AI CEO foresees white-collar bloodbath US trade court blocks Trump's sweeping tariffs in blow to trade policies Trump tells US chip designers to stop selling to China, FT reports AND Arnaud Bertrand on X: "This is yet another move that doesn't make any sense whatsoever from an economic or strategic perspective. As per the FT article, the EDA firms that will now be banned from selling to China - Synopsys, Cadence Design Systems and Siemens EDA - have an 80% market share there and" / X FX Daily: Dollar gets a lift from tariff ruling and FOMC insight | articles | ING Think Germany to fund long-range weapons in Ukraine, says Merz White House plans — at last — to send some DOGE cuts to Hill - POLITICO Elon Musk says he's "disappointed" by Trump's "big, beautiful bill" The Global AI Talent Tracker 2.0 - MacroPolo RIP American AI industry. According to a recent study by the Paulson Institute, 38% of the top-tier AI talent working in the US are Chinese, more than Americans themselves. Nvidia posts Q1 earnings beat on strong AI chip demand despite China curbs EndGame Macro on X: "🇯🇵 Japan’s Verbal Yield Curve Control: A Signal of Systemic Strain, Not Stability — What Just Happened: Japan’s 30-year government bond yield has fallen back below 3% after peaking above it for the first time in over a decade. But this drop wasn’t driven by actual central bank https://t.co/niTjzQfbel " / X Cointelegraph on X: "⚡️ INSIGHT: BlackRock issues a rare warning about the quantum computing threat to Bitcoin in their latest iShares Bitcoin Trust filing. The world's largest asset manager warns quantum tech could 'undermine the viability' of Bitcoin's cryptographic systems. https://t.co/gv32UvrAzD " / X Saylor warns onchain proof-of-reserves poses security risks Trump administration moves to cut all remaining federal contracts with Harvard | Reuters Trump administration halts scheduling of new student visa appointments | Reuters How Trump Is Helping China, Iran in Africa Elon Musk disses Trump's 'big, beautiful bill' for growing national debt

Markets : as is, the Big beautiful bill isn't going to fly in Senate, too much spending, debt increase! and weak overnight 40y JGB auctions, yields back up , too much to say about Trump really..., Trump warns Putin 'he is playing with fire', sanctions coming this week ? worth lightening up on risk, we keep an eye on one of our sanction plays (#PALL), RBNZ cut 25bps, Harvard in the news again >>> Yields back up, if sustained, USD and Eq 'at risk' heading into June, month-end bond demand likely, rebalancing relative to equity selling probably (JPM and few others saying), overall SPX500 5900+ gets into rich valuations/weak risk-reward for longs with what's ahead in geopolitics, UKR-RU sanctions probability etc. NVDA after the bell the focus for many today.. #XAUUSD Bitcoin is not Quantum-proof — Google researcher says >>> GOLD is 100% quantum proof though !... Governor DeSantis Signs Legislation to Recognize Gold and Silver as Legal Tender in Florida New Zealand cuts rates 25 bps, flags slightly deeper easing cycle as global risks mount Trump could impose new Russian sanction in coming days, Trump reportedly also told Israel’s Netanyahu to avoid steps that undermine Iran nuclear talks; as OPEC+ is about to unleash a flood of new oil supply Germany would consider suspending EU funding to Slovakia if the country continues to diverge from the bloc’s shared direction, according to Merz. BIS urges governments to curb ‘relentless’ rise in debt Bill Ackman: "One thing I believe is that the private equity, venture capital and real estate portfolios are mismarked, up to 40%, nothing 'really' new, but crickey... /Thread HK Chief Exec John Lee invited students from Harvard to continue their studies in Hong Kong, as the United States moved to restrict the university's foreign student enrolment A staggering $7.24 Trillion is now sitting in Money Market Funds, a new all-time high >>> why are investors piling into money markets ? / Thread below, IMHO the 'distrust in long-term debt' 's major league stuff, but liquidity and optionality is key “I was disappointed to see the spending bill, frankly. It actually increases the deficit, not decreases it. It undermines all the work that DOGE has been doing”... Musk... FT- AI boom adds €150bn to value of four of Europe’s oldest industrial groups - electrical equipment makers including ABB and Legrand are surging thanks to a pivot to data centre infrastructure Spencer Hakimian on X: "Ron Johnson, Rand Paul, and now Rick Scott are all a NO on the Big Beautiful Bill. This bill isn’t going to pass without some major changes. Going to be a giant miss. Especially with debt ceiling approaching. https://t.co/bAVzrgvIbn " / X Japan 40-Year Bond Sale Demand Is Weakest Since July -  an outcome that risks fueling further volatility in global debt markets. The average bid-to-cover ratio, a measure of demand, for the bonds was 2.21 for the sale of the finance ministry’s ¥500 billion ($3.5 billion) issue maturing in March 2065. That was higher than 2.92 at the last auction in March BIS urges governments to curb 'relentless' rise in debt - SRN News too little too late ? New Zealand cuts rates 25 bps, flags slightly deeper easing cycle as global risks mount | Reuters Poorest 75 nations face ‘tidal wave’ of debt repayments to China in 2025, study warns | China | The Guardian >>>> and here is why - must read. . William Huo on X: "They called it a “tidal wave of debt.” What they meant was: China flipped the script, and Washington’s terrified. https://t.co/sHXDkHnNNK " / X Quantum Threat to Bitcoin? Google Flags Encryption Risk Governor DeSantis Signs Legislation to Recognize Gold and Silver as Legal Tender in Florida / X 'The most calls I've ever had' - Why Japanese bonds have suffered surging yields - ‘India isn’t catching up, it’s overtaking’: Strategist argues against India’s low per capita GDP logic against Japan - BusinessToday Boring_Business on X: "Bill Ackman: "One thing I believe is that the private equity, venture capital and real estate portfolios are mismarked" Ackman on Harvard and Yale endowment's exposure to private equity and VC. One of the best clips I have seen From his recent interview at University of Austin https://t.co/MZN2CpITDN " / X Full interview here Bill Ackman on the Decline of Harvard Universities in Asia Court Harvard Transfers Amid Trump Crackdown | TIME Harvard students march after Trump seeks to cut remaining contracts | Philstar.com China pledges support for overseas students after Trump's Harvard curb | Reuters EndGame Macro on X: "(1/2) The $7.24 Trillion Signal: What Record Money Market Flows Are Really Telling Us — Something historic is happening beneath the surface of the financial system. The U.S. money market funds now hold a staggering $7.24 trillion the highest level ever recorded. On the surface, https://t.co/3RAp6nRUmI " / X Citi adjusts short-term gold price forecast back to $3,500 - MINING.COM Explainer | Why central banks are playing a big role in pushing up gold prices | South China Morning Post

Markets : JGB yields in long-end drop 10bps (see below-'considering less long-bond issuing) , NVDA earnings after the bell on Wed and FOMC minutes on Thursday, OPEC+ meeting, TKY CPI and U.S PCE Friday, overall markets need to breathe, relatively well established ranges in rates, equity and FX, awaiting for Bessent & Trump to hear if they go full on with their big beautiful bill (in which case usd, bonds, eq likely to struggle on 'higher debt worries' , for NOW, #JPY #JGB news lifts USD in short-term (short-covering), and finally something that should get a lot of attention on both sides : Germany, France, UK, and US lift ALL range limits on Ukraine’s attacks inside Russia — German Chancellor Merz Hamas agrees to a Gaza ceasefire, sources say; US and Israel reject offer Germany’s Merz says US Tech perks could be target in Trade War - he said that the bloc would need to protect its interests and pointed to the US surplus in services trade with the EU. “At the moment, we strongly protect US tech companies — also on taxes,” Merz said Monday in Berlin at the WDR Europaforum conference. “That can be changed, but I don’t want to escalate this conflict. I want to solve it together.” Extraordinary speech on China by Indonesian president Prabowo/Thread Bessent : The Trump Administration is going big on digital assets >>> YES, of course they do, they need to engineer a $2trn or so of extra demand for treasuries via stable coins...which in many ways means that they are anything but stable... Top Japan Insurers See $60 Billion in Unrealized Bond Losses Fed quietly bought $43,6bn in UST's in alleged ‘Stealth QE’ operation after China abruptly dumps billions in bonds EU plans sweeping stress test of non-banks - Move likely to raise concerns among hedge funds and private credit groups of greater regulatory scrutiny Japan’s MOF Is Said to Sound Out Market on Bond Sale Amounts - Japanese super-long bond yields dropped after the finance ministry sent a questionnaire to market participants regarding appropriate issuance amounts for government bonds. The move aims to regain stability in the market after a sale of 20-year debt last week got the weakest demand in more than a decade. The 20-year yield dropped 13.5 basis points to 2.37%, and thirty- and 40-year rates also declined after reaching their highest levels since inception last week #JGB China’s airlines raise alarm as travellers ditch planes for bullet trains >> give folks great train service, and they switch off planes..who could have possible guessed that... EU might target US tech firms in trade war Ukraine-Russia War: Germany’s Friedrich Merz gives Ukraine green light to strike deep inside Russia Europe warned about enhanced missile range for Ukraine - RTHK Democratic Wins Media on X: "BREAKING: General Mark Milley delivered one of the finest speeches in American history. “We don't take an oath to a wannabe dictator. We take an oath to the Constitution, and we're willing to die to protect it.” This is a must watch. https://t.co/2QdzQzse5W " / X Japanese Life Insurers Tackle Massive Unrealized Bond Losses Amid Rising Interest Rates - News and Statistics - IndexBox Hamas agrees to a Gaza ceasefire, sources say; US and Israel reject offer Fed Quietly Buys $43,600,000,000 in US Treasuries in Alleged 'Stealth QE' Operation After China Abruptly Dumps Billions in Bonds - The Daily Hodl Tesla EU sales slump 52% in April: trade group | Fox 11 Tri Cities Fox 41 Yakima and BYD stocks plunge following deep price cuts as EV sales surpass Tesla in Europe China’s airlines raise alarm as travellers ditch planes for bullet trains | South China Morning Post Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on X: "The Trump Administration is going big on digital assets. Why? Because the previous administration nearly destroyed the industry with its anti-innovation agenda and regulation-by-enforcement approach. No more. Digital asset companies deserve regulatory clarity—and that’s https://t.co/kqYxwWggEm " / X Arnaud Bertrand on X: "There is no overstating how extraordinary this speech on China by Indonesian president Prabowo is. Especially if you know Indonesia's history during the Cold War, and Prabowo's personal history as a US-trained military officer, one of Suharto's most feared generals and his https://t.co/kzedpVA48D " / X Ole S Hansen on X: "#Gold trades lower for a second day with technical selling along a descending trendline, and 0.618 fibo resistance at USD 3,355 weighing on prices. In addition, reduced haven demand is also at play after Trump softened his aggressive trade stance with the EU. https://t.co/pGQPtrsvdP " / X

Markets : classic Donald, markets moved lower on Friday, as Trump “suggested” general tariff of 50% on the EU and said he would like to see 25% tariffs on all IPhones not made in the US, and then agrees extending EU tariffs deadline to 9th July over the weekend...another fold...what a clown show, what a complete 'insider trading dream' for them... >>> Ron Johnson reportedly has enough votes to block Trump’s “big beautiful bill” including Mitch McConnell & Lindsey Graham. (apparently ), Eq rally again over weekend, will give another opportunity to resell/re-hedge 5900-50+ area SPX500 , CHF, JPY, Gold might correct a little softer again, but precious metal trend remains higher, XPT on its way up finally!.., BTC also making new highs, Trump also tweeted "something has happened" to Putin and that "he has gone absolutely crazy.", what happened to him stopping the war in 2-3days... In 45 days, Japan's 30Y Government Bond Yield rose a MASSIVE +100 basis points, to a record 3.20% >>> UJSDP Y “China holds the cards… and America’s bluff is failing.” -Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz / Thread - interview below, well worth a listen imho Trump says he had good chat wit Iran over weekend..and Iran sharply criticizes Trump.. Brent crude has fallen from the January high of $82/bbl to $64 , and GS expects oil prices to continue to trend lower throughout 2025 and 2026.  Goldman Sachs notes that contrary to the hopes of some, lower oil price’s impact on US inflation will be very small Russia launches war's largest air attack on Ukraine, kills at least 12 people Market Quick Take - 26 May 2025 | Saxo 5 Issues That Might Decide Fate Of Trump’s ‘Big, Beautiful’ Bill In Senate – IJR 𝘊𝘰𝘳𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘦 on X: "“China holds the cards… and America’s bluff is failing.” -Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz When China began catching up, America hadn’t lost yet- but its long-stagnant system had already begun to crack. What America fears is not losing to China. It fears discovering that it’s no https://t.co/aJ6uqGJEe1 " / X Ole S Hansen on X: "#Uranium- and nuclear-themed ETFs spiked sharply Friday after news emerged that the domestic nuclear industry is set to be overhauled with executive orders from Trump. The Global X Uranium ETF ($URA), a key benchmark for uranium stocks, jumped 11%, driven by gains in top uranium https://t.co/KiyKRYobXQ " / X Iran sharply criticises US President Donald Trump's alleged bid to rename Persian Gulf - Daily Excelsior Trump delays 50% tariffs on EU to July 9 Trump: "I'm not happy with what Putin is doing. He's killing a lot of people and I don't know what the hell happened to Putin. I've known him a long time ... we're in the middle of talking and he's shooting rockets into Kyiv and other cities. I don't like it at all. I'm surprised." London-New York in 45 mins: New hypersonic jet could fly 7x speed of sound Big if true! The Kobeissi Letter on X: "What is happening in Japan? In 45 days, Japan's 30Y Government Bond Yield rose a MASSIVE +100 basis points, to a record 3.20%. Over $500 BILLION worth of "safe" 40Y Japanese Government Bonds have lost 20%+ in 6 weeks. Is Japan's bond market imploding? (a thread) https://t.co/iGdki2Dwz0 " / X BYD beats Tesla in European EV sales despite higher tariffs: Report Nvidia to launch cheaper Blackwell AI chip for China Reuters says Michael Pettis on X: "1/7 FT: "China is accelerating efforts to build a series of giant banks and brokerages as it pushes to consolidate the financial sector and make it better able to weather economic shocks." https://t.co/X8jvixazhn via @ft" / X Iran Holds Out for Nuclear Enrichment - WSJ Russia launches war's largest air attack on Ukraine, kills at least 12 people | Reuters Tens of thousands turn out for rival rallies for Polish presidency candidates Jerome Powell says not to take universities for granted | Fortune

Bond, the name is Bond .. Markets : Trump's budget deal worrying bonds/usd/equity .. (rightly so, huge increase in debt etc, $37trn we are nearly there on our way to $50trn by 2034), Bessent no talk about JPY with JPN at G7 (really?), SPX5900+ top right on VIX expiry day ...Trump & Ramaphosa meeting was quite something (not too dissimilar to Zelensky's meeting..) >>> duration risk getting into inflection point and about to create or unlock some other issues across markets, precious metals breaking up, BTC all time highs, what else! #JGB's : suddenly the whole world is watching Japan's JGB's and JPY, why ? because it matters hugely, long-term carry etc #CHFJPY lower, pick your trade vs #JPY, a reminder that authorities want to avoid a 'TWD' like move in other major USD pairs... you know that are never ever supposed to happen, things like Oct 1998 in USDJPY (many others, just an example) BOJ should step in only in a 'severe' bond market rout, policymaker says Nike to hike prices as it faces tariffs uncertainty, another one in a long list of companies rising prices, quite substantially in some cases (WMT cutting jobs, Tech side too) Hassett said that the "big beautiful bill" will get the US to 3% trend growth against the 1.8% assumption from the CBO >>> all fiscal discipline has been abandoned >>> It is ALL about growth now Israel : suddenly, something is shifting, some sort of moment of judgment coming $1trn Kuwait fund’s boss sounds warning on private equity Bessent, Kato did not discuss FX levels at G-7, US Says >> small bounce to 144 overnight and right back down #USDJPY For the first time in modern financial history, Greece is borrowing at lower interest rates than the United States — even for 30-year bonds. - let that sink in... US Secretary Scott Bessent and Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato  did not discuss foreign exchange (USDJPY) levels during their meeting in Canada (really...) . However, they “reaffirmed their shared belief that exchange rates should be market determined and that, at present, the dollar-yen exchange rate reflects fundamentals” Their discussion involved issues relevant to the US-Japanese economic relationship, including global security and the ongoing bilateral trade discussions between the two nations, the department said UST 10's 4.6, 30's 5.10%... >>>> debt, debt, and more debt... no fiscal discipline... this is what is happening: Investors are worried about the US fiscal outlook. The bill is expected to add at least $3tn to the national debt over the next decade. Their fears were also reflected in a weak $16bn auction of 20-year Treasuries, which were sold at their highest interest rate since 2020. Primary dealers — banks required to buy any unsold bonds — purchased 16.9 per cent of the offering, above the average of 15.1 per cent. One analyst noted: “Markets really have no appetite for duration here.” U.S.-South Africa Tension Explained as Trump Hosts Ramaphosa US House Republicans set pre-dawn votes to get Trump tax bill over finish line | Reuters Merz Advisers See Germany in Stagnation But Recovery in Sight - Bloomberg Trump says he’s ‘seriously considering’ taking Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac public | Donald Trump | The Guardian Nike to hike prices as it faces tariffs uncertainty Walmart plans job cuts in restructuring push to lower expenses $1 trillion billion Kuwait fund’s boss sounds warning on private equity | Luxembourg Times A moment of judgment has come at last: not just for Netanyahu but for his enablers | Owen Jones | The Guardian Two Israeli embassy staffers killed in Washington shooting, suspect held | Reuters North Korea's second naval destroyer is damaged in a failed launch at a ceremony attended by Kim Universities Are in Tumult. Bank of America’s Brian Moynihan and Apollo Global’s Marc Rowan Weigh In. - Barron's What’s Eating Europe’s Food System? by Elmar Hannen & Martin Häusling - Project Syndicate

Markets : momentum on this Equity rally is stalling, valuations ignoring credit and higher yields (as it is quite clear that Trump and Bessent are pushing for higher deficit with the beautiful tax break package), trade deals are NOT coming through as Trump said (as usual), in fact UK stopping negotiations with Israel on trade deal, deadline looms in early July already (if Trump loses it again in 2-3weeks, you know deals are not being signed...and they will shout and increase tariffs again), Israel threatens Iran (Oil up..), EU, UK to sanctions Russia further (PALL could run..), USD, Bonds, U.S equity softer, not a good cocktail..   SPX500 5900+, DAX 24K+, QQQ 21k+ etc...reduce risk/re-hedge some exposure #XPT that beautiful break out looks ''on'' now (see Ole's thread below) Fed officials expect tariffs to boost prices; White House downplays risk A fresh analysis from the Congressional Budget Office said the tax provisions would increase the federal deficit by $3.8 trillion over the decade , while the changes to Medicaid , food stamps and other services would tally $1 trillion in reduced spending. The lowest-income households in the U.S. would see their resources drop, while the highest ones would see a boost, the CBO said. The 60% decline in the #VIX  over the last 5-6 weeks is the biggest volatility crash in history, which fuelled he fastest rally in Eq in a long time, ever probably, >>> ALL it says is the market structure has changed for good, new world order, new paradigm etc, things shift very quickly...start again...time to look at plays going back the other way, ahead of the 90day deadline in early July, you can be sure all those 100+ deals won't be done...and deficits going to explode higher again with the big beautiful tax deal... China debuts world’s first quantum cryptography system, claims it’s ‘unhackable’ The Atlantic: Trump spent 2 hours on the phone with Putin — and got nothing...Putin says he is “ready to work with the Ukrainian side on a memorandum for a potential future peace treaty… The danger is that growth momentum (in China) may slip further : even putting aside the export sector, domestic demand now seems to be softening almost across the board.” Gavekal Dragonomics FANNIE MAE DOWNGRADED TO AA1 BY MOODY’S, they had to, if the guarantor (U.S Govt) gets downgraded to AA1.. SCMP: "President Xi Jinping says self-reliance in advanced manufacturing is the right path for China and the bedrock for its future economic development." WTI jumped after CNN reported that US intelligence suggested Israel is preparing to strike Iranian nuclear facilities The budget includes $25bn for the ‘Golden Dome’ missile defence shield. Trump said it should be fully operational by the end of his term and may cost $175 billion (FT, BBG) New intelligence suggests Israel is preparing possible strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, US officials say | CNN Politics House GOP grinding ahead with Trump's big tax cuts bill, but new report says it will add to deficit EU, Britain go ahead with new Russia sanctions without waiting for Trump | Reuters Microsoft-backed AI startup Builder.ai enters insolvency proceedings | Sifted How do you monetize AI... China’s Xi doubles down on self-reliance, rallying officials to bolster manufacturing | South China Morning Post China debuts world’s first quantum cryptography system, claims it’s ‘unhackable’ Trump's approval rating slides to match lowest this term, new poll shows Trump's mass layoff threat drives US government workers to resign | Reuters Trump rolls out 'Golden Dome' missile defense system plan UK inflation leaps to higher-than-expected 3.5%, ONS says Jim Stewartson, Antifascist 🇨🇦🇺🇦🏴‍☠️🇺🇸 on X: "My god, Putin says he is “ready to work with the Ukrainian side on a memorandum for a potential future peace treaty… including a potential temporary cease fire, if relevant agreements are reached.” In other words, “Tap, tap, tap, I’ll play along but I’m not doing shit.” https://t.co/7rCirL3P6u " / X and Tymofiy Mylovanov on X: "Putin is the boss The Atlantic: Trump spent 2 hours on the phone with Putin — and got nothing. Putin framed the call first, offering vague talk of a memorandum on a peace deal. Meanwhile, Russia launched a massive drone strike on Ukraine. 1/ https://t.co/I9ldus2HNk " / X If you really need to.. One of the Greatest Comebacks in Market History | The Week in Charts (5/16/25) | Charlie Bilello Japan-US to base talks on past FX agreement, Kato says | Reuters Ole S Hansen on X: "One to watch: London #Platinum Week starts today with #XPT hovering just below key resistance after the WPIC in a quarterly outlook said the market could face a near 1 million troy ounce deficit in 2025 Note, the upper trendline dates back 17 years to 2008 https://t.co/1IpTeme3O7 " / X William Huo on X: "Nvidia is cooked. Huawei already won. Barron’s won’t tell you, but here’s what they’re afraid to print. https://t.co/0R16MhtX01 " / X Subaru of America increases vehicle prices, citing market conditions Lingling Wei 魏玲灵 on X: "“The danger is that growth momentum (in China) may slip further: even putting aside the export sector, domestic demand now seems to be softening almost across the board.” Gavekal Dragonomics https://t.co/fKCvWQIBAH " / X Landslide threat: authorities order evacuation of Swiss mountain village - SWI swissinfo.ch

Markets : Tom Lee said 'there is no signal in Moody's downgrade', move along please, new highs coming in Eq (always a bull), SK and U.S trade talks stalling, higher deficit coming : Hasset (bearish USD and bullish GOLD), Ray Dalio ''risk to UST's is even greater than what Moody's is saying'', GOP Sen. Johnson said to Trump "will increase [the deficit] by $4 trillion with the Big Beautiful Bill," and that Medicaid will be cut: "Now what are you going to cut? Medicaid, absolutely", RBA cut 25bps down to 3.85% (was fully priced), Trump said UKR and RU immediately starting ceasefire negotiations, Kremlin says no timeline yet.. Jamie Dimon talked about bad credit risks on the increase >>> overall JPY-JGB yields keeping JPY firm (on another inauguration 2.0 scenario, and long-end properly selling off, USDJPY 120 area in 2025 is the ultimate risk-off trade/hedge perhaps - one of them >> BUY 6-9mos #JPYcalls), while overall USD remains soft (USD, GOLD, BONDS #duaration moved swiftly together yesterday..) and SPX500 are levels to take profit/hedge/sit back and enjoy the summer...wait for new opportunities Regarding the recent U.S. debt downgrade : it's important to understand that credit ratings tend to underrepresent the full scope of credit risk. These ratings primarily assess the likelihood of a government defaulting—i.e., not repaying its debt—while overlooking a more nuanced but significant risk: that of monetary debasement #USD (could argue most likely path leads to USD downside, GOLD upside, equity will they/won't they like softer usd.., lower bonds/steeper curves) In other words, governments may choose to print more money to meet their debt obligations, which doesn't reduce the nominal repayments but does erode the real value of the money received >>>> for investors concerned with preserving purchasing power, this represents a material risk that is not fully captured by traditional credit ratings. As such, the perceived safety of U.S. government debt may be overstated by the rating agencies Japan’s Prime Minister says his country’s financial situation is worse than that of Greece >>>  Debt-to-GDP is over 260% — the highest in the developed world, aging population, fewer workers, higher int rates making debt payment unsustainable.. Japan's 30y JGB yields 3.13% .. #duration #JPY Germany drops its decade-old anti-nuclear stance . German and French officials confirm Germany will no longer oppose nuclear in EU energy policy. A historic shift! #BTC this is a big test of the narrative form here on >>> higher 30y yields and softer USD, this is a big test to see if BTC breaks higher this summer.. EU likely to propose to G7 lowering price cap on Russian oil to $50 per barrel NY Fed President John Williams says you can take the summer off , watching data.. #XAU Gold markets are cited by ECB as a risk to financial stability - “Additionally, disruptions in the physical gold market could increase the risk of a squeeze..." TSMC plans 30% price hike for AI chips “Made in USA” Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian warned, on Sunday, that Tehran may block the Strait of Hormuz if efforts to restrict its oil exports persist. - Shafaq News France's government covered up Nestle's illegal treatment of bottled water FBI agent goes public with Russian intelligence Op that hooked Musk & Thiel RBA cuts cash rate to 3.85% as inflation eases - Sharecafe Fed's Williams says he has not seen any big move out of US assets, monetary policy in good place Trump says Russia, Ukraine agree to immediate ceasefire talks, Kremlin offers no timeframe | Reuters Nvidia plans to sell tech to speed AI chip communication | Reuters Michael Saylor's $40bn bitcoin bet | FT Film Out together by FT's Katie Martin FBI Agent Goes Public With Russian Intelligence Operation That Hooked Musk And Thiel – @saywhat-politics on Tumblr Eric Yeung 👍🚀🌕 on X: "“The China-US tariff negotiations are likely to go wrong again. The second round of tariff talks ended in South Korea. This time there was no news publicity and no results were exposed. Bessant said Trump would restore the tariff levels announced on April 2 for countries that https://t.co/MynBULA2sr " / X Why The Qataris Are Happy To Dump Their 747 On Trump President Pezeshkian at Tehran Forum: Iran could block Strait of Hormuz - Ray Dalio says risk to U.S. Treasurys greater than what Moody's says Romania: Historic victory for pro-European candidate UBS to Close Robo-Advisor, Joining Big Banks’ Retreat From Digital Advice An inquiry says France's government covered up Nestle's illegal treatment of bottled water Japan PM Ishiba Rebuffs Tax Cut Demands With Greek Debt Comparison - Bloomberg EU likely to propose to G7 lowering price cap on Russian oil to $50 per barrel What does the record price of gold tell us about risk perceptions in financial markets? Why gold in 2025? What happened to US exceptionalism? As we entered 2025, expectations for the US economy were at their highest compared to the previous two years (Chart 1) and there was widespread belief that strong growth and significant asset-price increases would continue in 2025. The Trump administration’s planned economic and policy reforms, including slashing red tape and cutting taxes, added to this optimism, suggesting that American exceptionalism would persist. Gold Markets Are Cited by ECB as a Risk to Financial Stability - Bloomberg Keir Starmer on X: "You deserve better than the last government's deal. It wasn’t working for anyone.    Here’s 10 ways today’s deal with the EU will benefit Britain ⬇️" / X Peter Stefanovic on X: "A good summary from @BBCNews @benchu on the UK-EU reset deal https://t.co/IX4DX6SEnJ " / X South Korea, US to hold 2nd round of tariff talks in Washington this week -

Markets : Bessent to WMT : eat those prices hikes!, Moody's downgrades U.S credit rating (Govt debt exploding higher! main reason..) , Trump to talk to Ukraine and Russia after weekend talks, Iran waters down U.S nuclear deal, Portugal and Romania more to the center, SNB and U.S +ve 'exchange' >>> Bonds, USD, Stocks, Gold all on the move, bonds doing most of the work, given the huge 20/25% stock rally of the last 3-4 weeks... UST 30y 5%, no good for Bessent ! SPX500 5900+ looks too stretched give fundamentals ! sell rallies, reduce exposure, buy some downside, as discussed a lot with you since last week UK-EU deal 'breakthrough' as Keir Starmer to announce post-Brexit reset agreement after late-night talks Scott Bessent Asks 'Who Cares' About Moody's Downgrade, Boasts Of Trillions Coming In From Trump's Middle-East Tour, both Bessent and Trump telling WalMart to eas prices rises-FF >>> going full China, telling Unis how to teach their students, companies how to run their business and prices, soon tell banks who they should lend to ? very very unlike America of last few decades... Eq markets should be concerned about what the WH is all about (bonds certainly are...) President Donald Trump on Friday said the U.S. would begin unilaterally informing many of its trading partners of new tariff rates, acknowledging for the first time that his administration will be unable to negotiate deals to lower tariffs with more than 50 trading partners by a self-imposed early July deadline China tariff ‘stacking’ pushes true cost of import taxes well above 30% on many consumer product UBS makes dollar victims an offer - crazy ‘Exotic Options’. UBS could be facing a king-size write-off. Depending on how much it has to pay the dollar victims, it could be looking at between 500 million and 1 billion Portugal’s ruling centre-right coalition won a snap poll, early results showed, the far right vote also surged. Bucharest’s centrist mayor won Romania’s presidential runoff, defeating a Trump loyalist. Poland’s presidential election will go to a June 1 runoff between a Donald Tusk ally and a nationalist Swiss Had Good Exchange with US on Currency, SNB Chief Says - Switzerland's central bank president, Martin Schlegel, said the country is not a currency manipulator and has had productive talks with the US on currency interventions. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has only intervened in the franc's exchange rate to meet its price stability directive, not to gain an advantage. The SNB president expects no recession in Switzerland and hinted at possible negative interest rates, depending on the economic situation UK-EU deal 'breakthrough' as Keir Starmer to announce post-Brexit reset agreement after late-night talks Bessent: If countries ‘do not negotiate in good faith,’ their tariffs will go back up | Watch Scott Bessent Asks 'Who Cares' About Moody's Downgrade, Boasts Of Trillions Coming In From Trump's Middle-East Tour Moody's lowers U.S. credit rating to 'Aa1' Trump says US will set new tariff rates for countries, skirting negotiations - POLITICO Donald Trump slams Walmart over tariff-related price increases China tariff stacking pushes true cost of import taxes well above 30% Foreign holdings of US Treasuries top $9 trillion in March, data shows | Reuters Trump to speak to Russian, Ukrainian leaders on Monday after talks in Turkey | Reuters Trump’s Middle East trip leaves Netanyahu watching from the sidelines again UBS macht Dollar-Opfern Angebot – irrwitzige „Exotic Options“ – Inside Paradeplatz Iran disputes Donald Trump, says no new nuclear proposal on the table Tesla pulls all the demand levers with discounts and incentives as sales crash | Electrek

Markets : this week been all about deals a-gogo! SLR relief, Mid-East playing the long game with the U.S, just like China, Trump sais he is the only one to do it with Putin, he adds that they are close to a nuclear deal with Iran, SK and U.S met for talks (will be interesting to see if any USD consequence within the deal!), JPN economy shrinks in March by -0.2%, META AI delay, Coinbase hack, eq markets buying into close this week been huge (partly short gamma) going into monthly Eq derivs expiries today, clearly a lot of good news priced in these markets now (SPX 5900+) USD : big picture most likely remain soft, as Bessent continues to talk/threaten with the tax on UST holdings by foreigners + possibly push for lower usd via trade talks (SK and JPN will be the tell) How China caught up with Silicon Valley-FT >>> DeepSeek moment was the tell, as discussed back then, China has caught up, partly the reason for the Trump tariffs war... US set to cut capital requirements for banks, FT reports Bill Gates says that the tech bans on China are "absolutely" backfiring, and that it was delusional to think the US "would get substantially ahead of the Chinese" and that "[AI] was going to be super unique to us." Germany’s Merz tells EU to scrap supply chain due diligence law : The EU's CSDDD was proposed to force companies to enforce sustainability rules and human rights along their supply chain Starmer seeks UK-EU ‘reset’ Trump says he has a ‘little problem’ with Tim Cook China's CO2 emissions have been declining for a year now, since 2024, when their official target was to reach peak emissions by 2030 (and carbon neutrality by 2060) >> no matter how you slice it, this is good SCMP: "Container bookings from China to the United States have surged nearly 300 per cent after the world’s two biggest economies agreed to pause sky-high tariffs that threatened global shipping."... all so binary! but as we said in March, an embargo was never going to last very long... US set to cut capital requirements for banks, FT reports Trump insists Ukraine-Russia peace won't happen until he and Putin 'get together' Trump says he has a ‘little problem’ with Tim Cook Apple’s assurance to Indian government after Donald Trump talks about his “little problem” with CEO Tim Cook: “There is no…” Trump says US close to a nuclear deal with Iran | Reuters Trump will not like this : How Chinese Tech Giants Are Outpacing Silicon Valley by Letting Go – The Droid Guy In just four years, Xiaomi overtook Apple in China’s smartphone market.TikTok reached a billion users twice as fast as Facebook.WeChat Pay dominates in China, while WhatsApp’s payment feature remains niche, even in its strongest markets. Tariff cuts ease mass China layoffs threat, but job market pain persists | Reuters Starmer seeks UK-EU ‘reset’ – is another Brexit row looming? US trade chief meets South Korea's shipbuilders for possible cooperation - Nikkei Asia State of U.S. Tariffs: May 12, 2025 | The Budget Lab at Yale Germany's Merz tells EU to scrap supply chain due diligence law - Euractiv Japan's economy shrinks 0.2% for the first time in a year Meta Reportedly Delays 'Behemoth' AI Model: What This Could Mean for Its AI Tools - CNET Coinbase hacked: Hackers demand $20 million in Bitcoin, threaten to leak customer data - Technology News | The Financial Express China to US container bookings soar nearly 300% after trade war truce | South China Morning Post Liz Webster on X: "Since 1970s when we joined Europe, food has been secure in Britain. But Brexit tore up our trade agreements, agri policy and food security. U.K. has NO FOOD PLAN as climate change and war are playing havoc with the world, We have NO plan, not a scooby, to feed the population https://t.co/mX4DQfy5UT " / X The Kobeissi Letter on X: "The selling pressure in UnitedHealth, $UNH, is almost unprecedented: For the first time since 1998, a Dow 30 stock is down over -55% in 1 month. The last time it happened? Also $UNH in 1998, when the stock fell -55% in one month. Not even 2008 or 2020 saw a Dow 30 component https://t.co/Jhi68sEAxG " / X Getting cheap that's for sure, might be worth a look ? Arnaud Bertrand on X: "Wow, they actually achieved it, and 6 years ahead of target. It's now confirmed that China's CO2 emissions have been declining for a year now, since 2024, when their official target was to reach peak emissions by 2030 (and carbon neutrality by 2060). You can say what you want" / X Portugal far-right leader suffers second collapse days before election | Reuters

In this interview with Bloomberg TV, PVM discusses our thoughts on Global Macroeconomics and how it drives our quest to build investment portfolios for our Clients with Better Metrics. We also discuss our latest single stock investments.