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China's ''basooka'' : lowered rates ands signaled more to come, lower RRR for banks (more liquidity), pledged some $100bn in equity support, stock market stabilization type fund discussed, easier rules on 2nd home purchases/Thread >>> Morgan Stanley views the event as reflecting a change in mindset in Beijing’s approach to dealing with deflation >>>> commods, industrial metals, HSI and Chinese stocks nicely up, BofA thinks it is as expected basically, a reminder that Chinese stocks have been hated (or worse shorted by many HF's) for months, investors are significantly underweight China equities.. China test-fires ICBM for first time in decades Hezbollah has been provoked like never before by Israel and may be tempted to unleash its firepower Bond anomaly that twisted yields from US to Germany is NO more >>> German yield curve is latest to turn positive after US and UK >>> The 3m-10y Treasury yield spread has steepened by nearly 49 bps in the past 10 days ... that's the most aggressive 10-day move since March 2020 and before that, December 2010 France could get deficit to EU limit in five years, says Bank of France head Berkshire Hathaway still reducing Bank Of America Holdings Month-quarter end flow dominate now for rest of the week, USD sales most likely, risk trying to rally still - could be quite volatile (bonds, usd ) Bond Anomaly That Twisted Yields From US to Germany Is No More - Bloomberg France could get deficit to EU limit in five years, says Bank of France head ( msn.com ) Michael Pettis on X: "1/5 According to Xinhua, the PBoC plans to create new monetary policy tools to support the stock market. These will include establishing a… https://t.co/7rbBCnV5Zq " / X China cuts another key interest rate to boost economy ( yahoo.com ) China test-fires ICBM for first time in decades - BBC News Is it finally time for the silver price to shine? – The Armchair Trader Warren Buffett Moves: Berkshire Hathaway Reduces Bank Of America Holdings By $863M ( msn.com ) what does he know we don't ? Labour conference live: Pressure on Starmer as he faces union vote to reverse ‘cruel’ winter fuel payments cut | The Independent Nick Timiraos on X: "The Conference Board's labor market differential (jobs "plentiful" minus jobs "hard to get") narrowed again and is now at a level last seen in early 2017. It has dropped quite a bit in the last six months. https://t.co/M02ORLshW8 " / X Zelenskyy's victory plan sets Ukraine's terms in a desperate war against Russia ( yahoo.com ) Hezbollah has been provoked like never before by Israel and may be tempted to unleash its firepower ( msn.com ) Trump briefed on alleged assassination threats by Iran, his campaign says | Reuters Global rice markets are in crisis amid 'artificial' shortage ( cnbc.com ) Not good #silver #xagusd be patient, this time is different :-) #SILJ and the likes of #GDX still lagging actual XAU prices

PBoC’s surprise confirms shift in deflation fight >>> following in FED's path....reflate! 16 Fed speakers this week! is this enough ? >>> Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari supports another 50bp rate cut this year and Fed's Goolsbee sees 'many more' rate cuts ahead USD : WORTH LOOKING AT long-term charts, to remind ourselves how 'rangy' major pairs have been in recent years (yes USDJPY moved but..) >>> take #AUDUSD below as an example, key month, quarter-end close up next! GOLD keeps on trucking... SPX500 : chances are we go on making new highs, low vols, slow melt-up case, as markets know the FED will be more aggressive on any signs of softer macro data, most importantly employment now, so we kind of have a FED put, watch ADP, JOLTS, NFP - it is all that matters now, as rates come down, equities loving it, as long as we do not talk 'recession' ! >>>> The market is currently pricing in over 2.00% Fed rate cuts within 12 months, the most since the Financial Crisis. This implies a 100% probability of a recession in the next 12 months, according to Goldman Sachs Germany says it doesn't support a takeover of Commerzbank . “We have taken note of UniCredit’s actions. We do not support a takeover. We have communicated this to UniCredit,” a German FinMin official said. Barclays helped UniCredit quietly build Commerzbank stake, BBG reports >>> UniCredit to increase stake though EZ PMIs are boosting the case for faster and/or larger #ECB  cuts and the endorsement of a dovish bias.  *Interesting this morning: "In a sign of resignation, companies have shed staff at a rate not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020", meanwhile in UK, softer but still much stronger than europe UK S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 52.9, and finally US S&P GLOBAL Sep manuf PMI AT 47 GOLD remains on track to break its decade-long September curse with XAU currently up close to 5%, supported by FOMO leading to very small pullbacks, a bumper 50 bps rate cut, and a softer USD/Saxo UST's : very useful bond Thread below At 5,700, the S&P 500 is now over 300 points above above the highest 2024 year-end price target from WS strategists and some 15% above the average target (4,860), and its only end of Sep ! with an election ahead of us >>>> Citi turns more pro-cyclical in its global asset allocation , preferring to fully participate in this Fed-induced risk-friendly environment, even as it maintains its view of an eventual hard landing in the US.  Equities is moved to overweight, and US equities is moved to max overweight Ed Yardeni, president at Yardeni Research, said he’s raising the odds of an “outright melt up” in stocks following the Federal Reserve’s 50 basis-point cut, but sees the Fed at risk of “overheating a warm economy" World’s Top Banks Back Nuclear Energy #URA Factbox-China rolls out broad rate cuts and other stimulus to spur weak economy ( msn.com ) PBoC beat mkt exp with a trio of RRR, policy rate and mortgage cuts, and an innovation in stock mkt support, echoing our view that Beijing is shifting approach on deflation. To exit deflation, more decisive housing and social welfare support is needed with central gov't leveraging Statement by the Reserve Bank Board: Monetary Policy Decision | Media Releases | RBA Euro zone business activity contracts unexpectedly - PMI ( rte.ie ) US business activity steady in September; price pressures pick up ( msn.com ) Growth softens across UK businesses in September, PMI shows ( msn.com ) Stock Market Today: Dow, S&P Live Updates for Sept 23 - Bloomberg (30) H2 Today News - September #3 | LinkedIn An Unprecedented Monetary Destruction Is Coming | Mises Institute Ole S Hansen on X: "#Gold remains on track to break its decade-long September curse with XAU currently up close to 5%, supported by FOMO leading to very small pullbacks, a bumper 50 bps rate cut, and a softer USD. https://t.co/kYOipORVTc " / X Alf on X: "The bond market is intimidating: it's full of jargon and practitioners tend to overcomplicate it. Today, let me share with you my Bond Market 101 approach. It will help you understand bond markets in <5 minutes. 1/" / X Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 on X: "These reports also suggest 🇪🇺 CPI Servces component was artificially boosted by OG in August. A downward normalization is expected in Sep., with headline likely falling below 2% (due to base effects). https://t.co/TCSSVq1LvU " / X UniCredit raises stake in Commerzbank to 21%, seeks approval to increase holding to 29.9% | Invezz Neel Kashkari Backed Fed’s Large Cut and Another Half-Point This Year - Bloomberg Fed's Goolsbee sees 'many more' rate cuts ahead ( msn.com ) World’s Top Banks Back Nuclear Energy | OilPrice.com Biden proposes banning Chinese software in 'smart cars' over security ( qz.com ) #AUDUSD

FED week! (in Chicago here), finally after 1y of speculation we will get the first 25bps cut of this cycle (possibly 50bps if you listen to Ip and Timiraos-WSJ late last week), but super core is still 4.2% !.. we have about 36bps priced in for this meeting, total 110+ for 2024 , we also have Brazil, SA and Japan this week, BoE meets Thursday, nothing expected/priced this time round, but much better probability they do something than not (growth softer, services inflation still too high, UK CPI Wed may influence) >>> MOST things trading off U.S rates right now, lower yields globally (bull steepner), USD, GOLD and risk overall holding up very well, it could be argued that 50bps cut by FED could question the why now, what do they know, low growth scenario, which makes the employment data most important still going forward USD stays soft big picture, but big supports around 1.1225 EURO, 1.3250 CABLE, 0.8400 CHF, 140JPY, 7.08 CNH >>> must treat with care this week Equity markets 'nearly priced to perfection', 50bps might actually worry the markets, what does FED know we don't type scenario (growth scare etc) Trump second assassination attempt, or an apparent attempt (FBI) Supercore inflation rose by 4.2% year-over-year in August and is now double the levels seen before 2020. Premature rate cuts may trigger a resurgence of inflation and worsen affordability/Thread, the dilemna! China has bought about a 3rd of the global gold market in 2024 /Thread, very poor set of economic data in China again >>> a lot of action finally in miners, junior miners #GDX #GDXJ #SILJ etc Fed, BOE and BOJ: It's a big week for central bank rate decisions ( cnbc.com ) Yen hits strongest level this year on speculation of big Fed rate cut - Nikkei Asia as much as we remain big USDJPY 'bears' for eventually 120-125JPY, be slightly careful this week Jim Bianco on X: "From the Fed's perspective, Friday's fed fund futures close was about the worst possible: 49% probability of a 50 bps cut/51% probability of a 25 bps cut (chart). This is literally one tick from maximum uncertainty (50/50). About half of Wall Street will be https://t.co/9SSRDRfVK6 " / X markets been gunning for any signs of a 50bps cu t Houthi missile reaches central Israel for first time, no injuries reported | Reuters Ukraine-Russia war live: Dozens injured in Kharkiv apartment strike as Lammy vows not to be ‘bullied by Putin’ ( msn.com ) China: German warships traversing Taiwan Strait pose 'security risk' ( yahoo.com ) Fed Interest-Rate Cut Hopes Lift Yen, Boost Bonds: Markets Wrap – BNN Bloomberg Slowdown in industrial activity leads to weakening of Chinese economy ( cityam.com ) Fed faces dilemma over 25 or 50 bps cut in Sept, WSJ’s Timiraos says ( msn.com ) Trump assassination attempt: Suspect in custody, ex-president safe ( cnbc.com ) Make Gold Great Again on X: "China has drained 29% of the global #gold market in 2024... so far! Or said differently: You have some gold, and I have a straw. There it is, that's a straw, you see? Watch it. Now, my straw reaches acroooooooss the room and drinks your gold. I... drink... your... GOLD! #GOLD https://t.co/EnnUH96Oaa " / X Ole S Hansen on X: "Speculators in metals made only a few changes in the week to 10 September, ahead of #gold's break to a fresh record, which supported 10% weekly gains in #silver and #platinum, the latter driven by demand from wrong-footed short sellers. Before the surge, the platinum short had https://t.co/r2VuKDiMPL " / X #GBP Rachel Reeves warned that cutting investment would damage ‘foundations of UK economy’ – business live ( msn.com ) BoE most likely to wait for Budget in Oct, and possibly act at the Nov meeting The Kobeissi Letter on X: "Something does not add up here: Supercore inflation rose by 4.5% year-over-year in August and is now double the levels seen before 2020. Supercore inflation is a key metric followed by the Fed which is calculated as core services less housing inflation. Supercore inflation has https://t.co/iRpLXVzZ06 " / X The US government is right to investigate Nvidia for alleged unfair practices | Max von Thun | The Guardian Boeing 'ready to get back to the table' amid machinist strike ( qz.com ) Biden Administration cracks down on Chinese e-commerce giants ( qz.com ) J.P. Morgan Puts an End to Brutal Work Hours ( finews.asia ) European governments offload €16bn of bailed-out bank stocks ( ft.com )

FED's Dudley suddenly talked 50bps, markets went on to price that risk last night! >>> GOLD breaking highs, Silver long way to go, Plat and Pall also on the move, great value still in the #GDX (previous metals on the move higher, while industrials struggle courtesy of China debacle - some argue China markets a good bet if Kamala wins - we shall see...) FED pricing 36bps for next week and a total of 115bps priced in for 2024 USDollar in big danger overall, USDJPY through 140 will send a few alarm bells across FX world, 1.1200-50+ EURUSD, 1.3200+ CABLE 0.6800+ AUDUSD etc very key medium to long-term Both the WSJ and FT reported that the U.S. rate cut decision will be a “line ball call” surprising markets that had assumed it would start off with a 25bpt move. Fed Fund futures imply a 43% chance it will be 50bpts up from 28% yesterday. The WSJ suggested the Fed is nervous about keeping rates too high for too long given that inflation and hiring are slowing down, though it didn’t quote any inside source #NVDA obviously matters a lot to markets in general : nicely explained here, see Gamma Thread below >>> it is about 20% of most Tech ETF's, is it 7% of NDX, passive money is now more than half of the market, when rest of the market buys or sells #NVDA it matters greatly ECB cut the depo rate by 25bp, as widely expected, and raised its core HICP inflation forecast for this and next year despite revising down GDP growth and wage growth and lowering its unit profit assumptions. The US Treasury on Thursday reported a $380 billion federal budget deficit for August , a massive shift from the $89 billion surplus in August 2023 BOJ's Tamura: Cannot say whether we could raise rates by year-end >>> having seen JPY firm some 10-15%, looks like they may get cold feet Brussels questions whether Starmer really wants a Brexit reset >>> don't mess his up Keir !! Flights are getting more expensive again as airlines scale back their growth plans Boeing workers going on strike after 96% vote for walkout The former NY Fed chief Dudley sees a strong case for a 50bp rate cut - report ( yahoo.com ) Putin says West will be fighting directly with Russia if it lets Kyiv use long-range missiles | Reuters Secretary Antony J. Blinken And Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski At a Joint Press Availability - United States Department of State SpotGamma on X: "Yesterday $NVDA traded 6.2mm contracts (11th largest since jan '20). The top 11 contracts by volume, all with 6 figure volume, were 9/13 exp. 8 of those 11 were calls. You have to go down to line 38 to find a contract > 2 weeks out. NVDA is ~7% of SPX/NDX and +20% of major https://t.co/FqEdPAjtj0 " / X America’s election is mired in conflict ( economist.com ) US budget deficit hits $380 billion in August – Firstpost Brussels questions whether Starmer really wants a Brexit reset – POLITICO Flights are getting more expensive as airlines scale back growth plans ( cnbc.com ) could they actually push him out.... JChoe on X: "Thread of actual quotes about Trump: "Trump is a fucking moron." - Rex Tillerson, Trump's first Secretary of State 1/6 https://t.co/v5GT6AQ5Cz " / X America’s election is mired in conflict ( economist.com ) JD Vance says he thinks Apple benefits from Chinese slave labor ( cnbc.com ) China to Cut Rates on $5 Trillion Mortgages as Soon as September - Bloomberg Warren Buffett's biggest stock buys and sells of 2024 ( qz.com ) Gilead Lenacapavir cut HIV infections by 96% in trial ( cnbc.com ) Larry Ellison's net worth approaches Jeff Bezos on Oracle's AI gains ( qz.com ) Boeing workers going on strike after 96% vote for walkout | Reuters JPMorgan Chase will limit bankers to 80 hours per week ( qz.com ) Reminds me of something!

Federal Reserve Waters down plan to Hike Capital Requirements for Big Banks amid Wall Street lobbying efforts (same in UK now too to it'll be global..) >>> some will argue about the FED's ''independence'' there >>> anyhow THIS and Jensen's bullish chat yesterday lifted #NVDA some 10%, which eventually lifted all corners of markets, turned JPY and CROSSJPY's etc >>> SPX500 was down 1.5% and finished up 2.5% et voilà #USDJPY traded below ''Yenmargeddon'' levels around 141.00...until the Jensen impact kicked in US  Core CPI inflation :   surprised to the upside, up to 0.28% m-o-m in Aug from 0.165% in July, no big 50bps cuts. Perhaps, the most absurd number in CPI is the cost of health insurance that has apparently declined 30% over the last 2 years >>> Core CPI inflation was unchanged at 3.2% Oracle is going nuclear over growing demand for AI data-centers, and that's not a metaphor for Larry Ellison's mood UK government designates data centers as Critical National Infrastructure IF you follow Warren, #OXY is now trading BELOW Warren Buffett’s cost basis Brussels explores Draghi option of extending up to €350bn in EU debt Without additional funding the European Commission fears debt obligations will hobble the bloc’s spending power... always involved more debt.. "It is clear: Crimea and Sevastopol are Ukraine" - European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen speaking at the Crimea Platform Summit Federal Reserve Waters Down Plan To Hike Capital Requirements For Big Banks Amid Wall Street Lobbying Efforts – IJR and now same in UK : Regulator set to postpone UK bank capital reforms until at least January 2026 ( cityam.com ) Federal Reserve unveils toned-down banking regulation in victory for Wall Street | Watch ( msn.com ) Federal Reserve halves proposed capital requirement rise for largest US banks ( ft.com ) Asian chip-related stocks rally on renewed AI optimism after Nvidia CEO comments ( msn.com ) Brussels explores Draghi option of extending up to €350bn in EU debt ( ft.com ) Oracle to power 1GW datacenter with trio of nuclear reactors • The Register This could be HUGE Vale raises forecast for 2024 iron ore production amid weak prices - MINING.COM Singapore Takes a Bite Out of Crypto With New Rules ( finews.asia ) UK government designates data centers as Critical National Infrastructure - DCD ( datacenterdynamics.com ) Morgan Stanley Sees Euro Sliding 7% on Risk of Big ECB Cuts ( yahoo.com ) UBS: Harris Outperforms Trump in Debate ( finews.asia ) Otavio (Tavi) Costa on X: "This is the annual gold production of the world's second-largest precious metals miner.   The lowest level in more than 20 years, according to its most recent report.   From this perspective, today’s environment closely resembles the 1970s.   Back then, major miners shifted https://t.co/OpWbcnGqvN " / X Israel-Gaza war live: UN chief condemns ‘violations’ of humanitarian law after six Unrwa staff killed in Israeli airstrike ( msn.com ) Ukraine war latest: Russia claims capture of Donetsk Oblast village near Vuhledar, Kyiv doesn't confirm ( msn.com )

Last night, Trump was as bad as Biden was in first debate. Trump's point about immigrants eating people's pets really did it for me, Taylor Swift has more followers on social media than there are voters in the U.S. Harris might have won de debate last night, but unlikely to win Senate, yet anyway, so the campaign rages on for few more weeks! >>> initial market reaction, UST rally, JPY higher (BoJ too), risk hesitate, GOLD up, crypto down a bit >>> would watch out for for those U.S financial warnings together with car giants The Fed backpedals and unveils a scaled-back proposal for bank capital requirements >>> is this why ?? JPM warns of recession (de facto kind of earnings downgrade), GS profit warning, ALLY warns of consumer defaults and few other banking stocks slid yesterday, BMW earlier in the day yesterday too BP's market capitalization has now plunged to the same level as during the worst point of the 2010 Gulf of Mexico oil spill , around $85bn - pretty amazing The Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates if inflation moves in line with its forecast , policymaker Junko Nakagawa said, signalling that last month's market rout has not derailed the bank's plan to hike borrowing costs steadily BYD raised its annual sales target, reported Morgan Stanley in a note dated September 9 . The company’s previous guidance for this year was set at 3.6 million units. BYD recently increased its 2024 annual sales target to 4 million units >>> explosive growth XPT :  WPIC forecasts 2024 shortfall of more than 1 million ounces Barnier: “I regret the UK left. I still don’t understand it, neither in terms of British interests, nor European It’s lose-lose . Nobody, not even Farage, [has been able to show any] added value of Brexit The door is open. The UK knows the specifications & knows the conditions” If h says so...Elon Musk said today that America is going bankrupt extremely quickly Spain’s Sánchez calls on EU to ‘reconsider’ Chinese EV tariffs The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell by 2.5 points in August to 91.2, erasing all of July’s gain Inflation: Consumer price increases expected to slow in August as investors eye September rate cut ( yahoo.com ) Small Business Economics Trends | NFIB Ukraine-Russia war latest: Huge drone attack hits Moscow region as Kremlin claims control of Ukrainian towns ( msn.com ) Trump v Harris debate live: Trump gives different answers on second debate - after performance 'as bad as Biden' | US News | Sky News The Fed backpedals and unveils a scaled-back proposal for bank capital requirements ( yahoo.com ) BOJ policymaker signals readiness to raise rates if inflation on track | Reuters Big bank stocks slide as executives temper earnings and digest less onerous capital increases ( yahoo.com ) JPMorgan stock drops after President Pinto's cautious comments ( msn.com ) Goldman Sachs expects $400M writeoff in latest hit from consumer business exit (NYSE:GS) | Seeking Alpha BMW shares plunge after vehicle recalls for brake system fix ( msn.com ) VW Scraps Three-Decades-Old German Jobs Pledge to Cut Costs ( msn.com ) Apple tax: Ireland to decide what it will do with 13 billion euros ( cnbc.com ) Commerzbank shares up after UniCredit buys stake from German government ( cnbc.com ) BYD raises its annual sales target: Morgan Stanley report ( teslarati.com ) Taylor Swift endorses Kamala Harris after Trump debate ( cnbc.com ) Platinum Set for Record Deficit But Prices Yet to Recover - Bloomberg The strange case of Boris Johnson’s nuclear consultancy ( prospectmagazine.co.uk ) Michel Barnier’s new secret EU mission – POLITICO ‘America is going bankrupt’: Elon Musk issues a warning as interest on US debt was equal to 76% of income tax collected in June — and is expected to exceed $1.14 trillion this year ( msn.com ) Brazil wildfires worsened by 'mega drought,' extreme heat – DW – 08/30/2024 Swedish Court Sends Ex-CEO of Swedbank to Prison | OCCRP

I respect Le Pen’s ideologies, says Barnier as he calls French borders ‘sieves’ Germany to tighten border controls after stabbing >>> Deputy federal chairman of the Federal Police Union: 'The crisis in Germany's security is a direct consequence of Schengen's ineffective policies. Schengen's inability to manage migration effectively has put Germany's safety at stake. Germany must realize the current failure of Schengen and either make a concerted effort to return to the current legal situation or terminate Schengen.’ Ukraine-Russia war latest: Massive Ukrainian drone attack hits nine Russian regions including Moscow Draghi’s report risks colliding with EU political reality >>> not the 'whatever it takes' from 2012 Yellen 'probably done' when Biden ends term, may meet Chinese counterpart soon >>> Who will clean this up ? By issuing nearly $2T of T-Bills, Janet Yellen succeeded in suppressing bond volatility in an election year, now - this paper has to be rolled over #duration Biggest US Banks’ Capital hike chopped in half in latest plan by Regulators >>> ''shaky Florida condo market'' and commercial real estate market the reason ? Falling interest rates in and of itself is positive especially positive for cyclical stocks, JPM is uncomfortable about the growth environment.  Its preferred trade in anticipation of Fed rate cuts is small vs. large caps MS leaves its baseline view of a 25bps Fed rate cut in Sept unchanged after the Aug employment data, labour market is cooling, but not perilously so, appears to be shared by FOMC members, as evident from the speeches of NY Fed President Williams and Fed Board Governor Waller Chinese refiners are reportedly purchasing approximately 16 million barrels of oil monthly to refill the nation's Strategic Petroleum Reserve , taking advantage of the current low oil prices, according to Bloomberg's insights from Energy Aspects EU top court rules Apple must pay €13bn in back taxes Car giants are being forced to confront some hard truths over the EV transition US election debate: Prosecutor Kamala Harris takes on angry Donald Trump in TV showdown ( yahoo.com ) Ukraine-Russia war latest: Massive Ukrainian drone attack hits nine Russian regions including Moscow ( msn.com ) I respect Le Pen’s ideologies, says Barnier as he calls French borders ‘sieves’ ( msn.com ) Israeli missile strike on Gaza safe zone 'kills and wounds dozens' | Evening Standard Draghi’s report risks colliding with EU political reality | Radio Schuman | Euronews Yellen 'probably done' when Biden ends term, may meet Chinese counterpart soon | Reuters Palantir Stock Rises. S&P 500 Addition Just One Piece of Good News. ( msn.com ) Apple's iPhone 16 event starts 'a historic week' for tech giant: analysts ( qz.com ) Phone 16 unveiled with AI-powered features « Euro Weekly News Apple loses EU court battle over 13 billion euro tax bill in Ireland ( msn.com ) Javier Blas on X: "COLUMN: The end of Big Oil's Big Bonanza. For the last 2½ years, Exxon, Chevron, Shell, TotalEnergies and BP have showered investors with multi-billion dollar buybacks. The pace of those share repurchases is now set to slowdown. #OOTT @Opinion https://t.co/f2OQnkezmP " / X Biggest US Banks’ Capital Hike Chopped in Half in Latest Plan by Regulators ( yahoo.com ) is this why ? Florida's condo market looks shaky. Could the bottom fall out? ( yahoo.com ) John Devaney on X: "There are tens of billions of defaulted or soon to default Class A and B office loans in Democrat run city's in the US such as San Fran, Philly, Chicago, Denver, St. Louis and parts of NYC This is as bad as the financial crisis in those cities. I know, as I'm a leading market https://t.co/hG5OBQ82KV " / X >>> Hopefully this won’t play out as badly as he thinks - huh Goldman Sachs to post $400M hit in third quarter over consumer business ( cnbc.com ) Battery maker Northvolt to cut costs, explore partnerships | Reuters tough place to be at the moment Autos: Car giants forced to confront hard truths over EV transition ( cnbc.com ) Russian investigation confirms Putin’s son was born in Switzerland - SWI swissinfo.ch Germany to tighten border controls after stabbing - BBC News The Swiss live in socio-economic bubbles - SWI swissinfo.ch

Chinese inflation data : producer prices fell by 1.8% yoy , more than expected, driving the disinflationary trend OIL MARKET: First day of the annual APPEC oil conference in Singapore, and the commentary so far is rather downbeat, disinflationary trend /Thread FED Sep meeting : the doves will have had a reasonably weak NFP to call for 50bps cut, payroll trend weakening, for now our best case is 3 or 4 25bps cut (as, risk is a 50bps cut is too 'hard landing') >>> overall big distribution of possible economic outcomes with U.S election and other geopolitics in months ahead, soft commodities, crude, China, USD-debt relationships + long positioning in equity markets overall >>> Week's focus is Wednesday U.S inflation data, this weel markets will look for a relief risk rally on soft ish U.S inflation Donald Trump Trump threatens to impose a 100% tariff on countries that conduct business in currency other than the US Dollar, adding a new pillar to his tariff platform US NFP : 4.2% , below consensus at 142k, together with downward revisions of 86k in prior two months, with more of the downgrade concentrated in June. U.S personal savings rate now down to 2.9%, lowest since June 2022, average over last 30years is 5.7%...persistent inflation taking its toll Eurozone Q2 GDP:  Eurozone economy grew less than exp in the Q2, rising 0.2% from the prev quarter – less than the 0.3% initially reported >>> Draghi to Unveil Plan Aimed at Curing EU’s Single Market Malaise Yellen says U.S. economy remains solid , on path to ‘soft landing’ with no meaningful layoffs Crypto sees weekly outflow of $600 billion, the 2nd largest weekly outflow in history >>>> just another leveraged/risk on/short vol play... The exact difference in electricity consumption between a ChatGPT query and a Google search can vary, but generally, ChatGPT searches use more energy due to the greater computational power involved in running large language models USDollar likely to do somewhat better over next few weeks, as liquidity diminishes, risk likely to 'struggle' overall >>>> 1.1200/00 EURUSD, 1.3200/50 CABLE tops, similarly AUDUSD 0.6800+ etc and lows in USDCHF around 0.8400 CHF, to get bullish USD would watch 50dmas, if they fail to hold like CABLE around 1.2950 area, then we can see a bigger counter move on USD Fed Governor Waller backs interest rate cut at September meeting, open to larger move ( msn.com ) Kamala Harris' Silicon Valley backers want more H-1B visas ( qz.com ) Kamala Harris faces crucial debate as polls hint at slipping momentum ( ft.com ) Donald Trump doubles down on his tariff ideas before New York business leaders ( yahoo.com ) Trump Pledges ‘100% Tariff’ for Countries That Shun Dollar - Bloomberg Trump, who has long embraced protectionist trade policies, said the dollar has been “under major siege” for 8yrs. China, India, Brazil, Russia, and South Africa discussed de-dollarization at a summit last year. By contrast, Trump has said he wants the dollar to remain the world’s reserve currency, a pledge he renewed at Saturday’s rally. US bitcoin ETFs bleed $1.2 billion in longest run of net outflows ( yahoo.com ) Japan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi cites BOJ's Ueda saying more rate hikes ahead | Forexlive ChatGPT's power consumption: ten times more than Google's | heise online Javier Blas on X: "OIL MARKET: First day of the annual APPEC oil conference in Singapore, and the commentary so far is rather downbeat. Oil traders Vitol, Trafigura and Gunvor are all signaling very well supplied markets. Trafigura, more typically a bull, sees risk of $60-a-barrel "soon" | #OOTT" / X Yellen says U.S. economy remains solid, heading toward 'soft landing' ( cnbc.com ) China's consumer prices rise in August, PPI stuck in deflation | Reuters Draghi to Unveil Plan Aimed at Curing EU’s Single Market Malaise ( yahoo.com ) Teen vaping hits 10-year low ( qz.com ) good trend Credit Suisse to Close Historic Branch in Zurich ( finews.asia )

NFP : USD going into payrolls weak vs most pairs (interesting USDCNH story below, BoJ stays on the hawkish side too - add lower CROSSJPY's in the mix ..), positioning is short USD/long bonds, so watch out if data is stronger (usual rules), and a HUGE risk in SOFR options, basically hedging for 50bps Fed cut in Sep, markets will price within seconds a 50bp cut, if data is well below 100K, watch out for revisions in previous months too 30y UST 3.99% - lowest since Dec 2023 France : Michel Barnier it is … and he will need all of his considerable calm, patience and political skills to form a government and construct a budget that will get through the French Parliament, hepromises respect for 'all political parties' On Monday : Chinese inflation data, APPL event wiht the iPhone 6 and THE first Harris / Trump debate August private payrolls rose by 99,000, smallest gain since 2021 and far below estimates, ADP says, US ISM Services Index Aug: 51.5 (est 51.4; prev 51.4) - Prices Paid: 57.3 (prev 57.0) . The all-important employment index remained in +ve territory at 50.2, only the third reading above 50 YTD, New Orders highest since May BMW will launch its first hydrogen-powered model in 2028 This is big news : China announces that they'll "give all Least Developed Countries (LDCs) having diplomatic relations with China, including 33 countries in Africa, zero-tariff treatment for 100 percent tariff lines" Politico: "Zelenskyy suffers huge backlash as reshuffle triggers power-grab accusations . A parliamentary majority and martial law mean the Ukrainian president has the right to assemble his government as he sees fit, but the opposition is crying foul." Chinese banks have built a $100 billion short against the US dollar to prop up the yuan — and hedge funds are eager to get in on the trade #USDCNH Interest expense on US Federal debt is now at a record $3 billion PER DAY . This is TRIPLE the amount paid 10 years ago and has DOUBLED in just 2.5 years Germany is considering deporting migrants to Rwanda and using facilities there that were paid for by the UK Gasoline crack spreads signal that the single most important petroleum product market in the world is weakening quickly #crude >> OPEC+ has reached an agreement to pause its planned oil output hike for Oct-Nov, according to a delegate familiar with the talks The United States is close to providing Ukraine with JASSM long-range cruise missiles - US media #Walgreens what not to do in finance : $7. 5bn market cap, not a whole lot of cash, $33bn in debt.. . China’s Banks Build $100 Billion Short on US Dollar to Prop Up Yuan (CNY USD) - Bloomberg Whaoo - At the center of it all are transactions known as FX swaps. These have quietly become a key tool for state-run Chinese banks seeking to prop up the yuan during periods of outsized selling pressure. Fresh jobs data tests how deeply Fed will cut rates ahead of government payroll report ( yahoo.com ) OPEC+ Delays Oil Output Hike, Kicking the Can Down a Very Uphill Road - Bloomberg The future of Wealth Management: Navigating Technology and Maximizing Operational Efficiency | Saxo ( home.saxo ) register if interested - The future of Wealth Management: Navigating Technology and Maximizing Operational Efficiency Saxo invites you to an exclusive live event on Thursday, 12 September at 18:00, in collaboration with The Good Guys Company Oliver Rakau on X: "Yes, Germany's July IP report was horrendous, raises odds of a renewed GDP contraction in Q3, and will kindle recession talks. But the 2.4% m/m drop was heavily driven by the car sector's 8% plunge, where a strong bounce looks likely in August. https://t.co/bsvLByPfXD " / X A big Fed rate cut this month could be very dangerous, economist warns ( cnbc.com ) Toyota and BMW are joining forces to push through the hydrogen fuel cell headwinds ( msn.com ) Putin says Russia's favourite to win US election was Biden, now it's Harris - SWI swissinfo.ch Apparently.. Ukraine-Russia war: Zelensky’s latest cabinet reshuffle seeks to project strength ahead of a tough winter | The Independent US close to agreeing on long-range missiles for Ukraine; delivery to take months - SWI swissinfo.ch Michel Barnier named by Macron as new French PM - BBC News Three former Wirecard executives found personally liable for €140mn ( ft.com ) Joining Hands to Advance Modernization and Build a Community with a Shared Future_Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China ( fmprc.gov.cn ) U.S. rolls out new chip-related export controls as China makes industry advances ( cnbc.com ) Racism, misogyny, lies: how did X become so full of hatred? And is it ethical to keep using it? | X | The Guardian Hunter Biden enters surprise guilty plea to avoid tax trial ( telegraph.co.uk ) Qualcomm may be planning to buy ‘these parts’ of Intel’s chip design business ( msn.com ) USD is weak(er) overall, showing a few signs of breaking down vs a few pairs, add soft CROSSJPY's too in the mix still..

A lot being written about whether the Ai bubble is about to come off the rails >>> so you been asking : IMHO, no-one can deny we've had bubbly markets last 6months! play accordingly, beware weak seasonal factors + U.S election + momentum clearly switched/challenged on Ai stocks, crypto, EV, on the back of weaker global growth (OIL, China, commods and USD, 2speed economy etc) >>>> could FED surprise and shock with 50bp in Sep ? quite possibly if NFP comes in well below 100K say Crude : see below, big picture crazy plan from MBS since 2022, was played by the U.S and larger producers, the likes of Citi now sees $60 levels , though could go anywhere is Saudis go for shock therapy.. (Crude been weak for a while, China & Global slowdown, geopolitics have had little or no impact) Two-thirds of Fed districts report flat or declining activity, Beige Book says Markets : if you had a good run YTD, time to play defense !, FX , continue to sell CROSSJPY's, USDollar a sell vs JPY as BoJ talks hawkish, but USD probably stays bid vs others, carry trade unwind #stage2 ? US job openings fell in July to the lowest since the start of 2021 , with available positions falling to 7.67 million from 7.91 million the prior month. The figure was lower than all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists GS - "Our preferred near-term long is gold . It remains our preferred hedge against geopolitical + financial risks, with added support from imminent Fed rate cuts and ongoing EM CB buying," A Kamala Harris win and a Democratic sweep would give the biggest boost to the economy, Goldman Sachs says >>> Harris' middle-class tax credits would outweigh the decreased investment driven by higher corporate taxes, also in FT- Harris proposes 28& top capital gains tax in softening of Joe Biden's plan China Weighs Cutting Mortgage Rates:  on as much as $5.3 trillion of mortgages in two steps to lower borrowing costs for millions of families while mitigating the profit squeeze on its banking system MS “.. Tesla continues to surrender EV share coming to 14% globally , vs. 20% share in June and 17% share on a YTD basis.” [Jonas] Volvo Cars abandons 2030 EV-only target Fed's Daly says rate cuts needed to keep labor market healthy | Reuters Two-thirds of Fed districts report flat or declining activity, Beige Book says ( msn.com ) Goldman Sachs sees economic boost in Kamala Harris election win ( qz.com ) Investors should 'go for gold' as Fed rate cut looms, Goldman says ( yahoo.com ) Nvidia's record $279 billion loss in market value highlights fears of AI bubble collapse | TechSpot Nvidia Rout Has Traders Watching $100-Share Level Amid ‘Vacuum’ ( yahoo.com ) Technical analysis EuroStoxx50 DAX reversal indications | Saxo ( home.saxo ) China may cut rates on US$5.3tn mortgages | The Standard BOJ to Keep Raising Interest Rates If Price Data Allow, Board Member Says - Bloomberg The GOP Is Better Off With Kamala Harris in the White House - POLITICO Goldman Sachs sees biggest boost to US economy from Harris win | Reuters China's Xi pledges over $50 billion in financial aid to Africa to deepen ties ( cnbc.com ) Jesse Felder on X: ""The commodity secular bull market in the 2020s (11% annualized returns) just getting started as debt, deficits, demographics, reverse-globalization, AI & net zero policies all inflationary." https://t.co/UtQT6zio0u via @dailychartbook https://t.co/ZI1jxBwtXH " / X >>>> difficult to navigate short-term, ie next 3-6mos, but couldn't agree more, add exposure on dips Javier Blas on X: "OPEC+ faces a quagmire: It can delay its 4Q output hike to defend prices >$75. But that doesn't resolve the big S/D 1H 2025 surplus. If OPEC+ wants to defend prices then, it would need to cut output , rather than delay hikes. Simply, the oil price Saudis want is too high." / X and Javier Blas on X: "Some statistics: Saudi oil production is today lower than 20 years ago. Oil prices, adjusted by inflation, are the same as in 2004. Saudi population has increased >50% in the last 20 years. #OOTT #SaudiArabia" / X looks like crude market could be drowning in oil over next 2years..! Volvo Cars abandons 2030 EV-only target | Reuters Crude

Softer crude prices again, YTD lows, and with global inventories at their lowest levels, demand must be weak! global growth concerns on the increase, weaker ISM Lack of market concern for geopolitics is astounding, Lybia, Russia-UKR, China-Taiwan, Israel, Turkey BRUICS, Iran attacks, red sea chaos etc VIX swings and NVDA leading overall markets 'sentiment-momentum', still/again chart here : United States Stock Market Index (USVIX) - Index Price | Live Quote | Historical Chart ( tradingeconomics.com ) "More of our customers are resorting to credit cards for basic household needs and approximately 30% have at least one credit card that has reached its limit . See our latest survey, 25% of our customers surveyed noted they anticipated missing a bill payment in the next six months." - Dollar General, CEO August 29, 2024 China’s industrial strategy on ‘collision course’ with top German export industries >>> worrying, china overcapacity stats are huge , even anti dumping measures may not be enough!, more EU tariffs likely coming in October >> See G Magnus below Ueda reiterates that BOJ will lift rates if outlook realised >>> looks like top in USDJPY is nearer to 147-149JPY now then >>> The BOJ will face a new wave of inflationary pressures, Tankan survey showing inflation rate in Japan could rise to near 4% over the next 12mos Swiss inflation undershot expectations again, down to 1.1% in Aug. The SNB cut in Sep is baked in, question is do they do more than expected #DAX Germany's Stock Market hit record high despite the economy shrinking during the last quarter , peaked again at the end of August The latest data from the Treasury shows that the US government now pays out on average $3 billion in interest expenses per day, including weekends MORGAN STANLEY: “.. The S&P 500 appears to be trading out of sync with other markets; the next labor report may determine which is right ..” Nomura says Trump, if elected, would restart inflation and damage the economy: "We would expect inflation in 2025 to be notably higher by 0.75pp, a larger fiscal deficit, fewer fed rate cuts and slightly weaker growth." Goldman Sachs expects central banks will keep fleeing towards gold due to ‘fear for financial sanctions and US sovereign debt’ #XAUUSD The ISM Manufacturing PMI has been below 50 (in contraction) for 21 out of the last 22 months . With data going back to 1948, that's only happened one other time: 1989-91 (Recession in 1990-91) This is the set-up as we start September, 2months to go to the U.S election, no need to add to risk here, stay cool, wait for better levels to re-enter, sell rallies. - Crude is on YTD lows, when everyone has been bullish, feels like recession and/or Trump win (lot more supply coming) but IMHO, key is global growth concerns — particularly following this week’s Chinese and US manufacturing data, NatGas falling  as if no-one needs it, Copper prices  trade 'recession' like - Bond prices falling a little as if inflation will come back - Gold is off its highs, Silver a little more, as if all these rate cuts been cancelled - Stocks topped out again, NVDA - feels a little a pretty wonky set-up ('''descelarating rate of earnigns grwoth'' last week's earnings, eventually got noticed - BTC struggling too, risk appetite seems to have gone >>> BTC just another liquidity driven risk on play - EV priced ''plunging'' - China 'oversupply war' with EU and U.S.. Chinese markets breaking down through worrying levels - Credit card defaults from small lenders hit RECORD high s. Comments from Dollar General CEO say it all - consumers tapped out (2speed economy in mind..) - Plenty of geopolitics across world, and French, German politics getting very complicated - 2weeks away from first FED cut - 200bps priced in and possibly a BoJ hiking in Dec - Carry trade will be challenged again Weak manufacturing measures raise specter of U.S. economic slowdown ( cnbc.com ) Nvidia Stocks Loses $280 Billion In MCap: Why the Chipmaker Saw its Worst Single Day Fall ( outlookbusiness.com ) Nvidia is flashing a sell signal and its huge rally marks the peak of a 40-year market cycle, veteran strategist says ( aol.com ) Asian chip stocks fall after Nvidia sell-off on Wall Street overnight ( cnbc.com ) China’s industrial strategy on ‘collision course’ with top German export industries – Euractiv George Magnus on X: "This is 1 scary chart if you're a Chinese economic policy maker (ie, Xi). You/he should be having a panic attack. Does he/do they care? Weakest broad monetary growth and collapsing M1 are pointing to slumping money GDP growth, and persistent deflationary pressures. 1/3 https://t.co/dlbXS68t5A " / X Ole S Hansen on X: "The fact that #crudeoil trades lower despite a sizeable Libyan supply disruption highlights a very weak market sentiment that increasingly carries the risk of Brent tumbling through key support in the USD 75 area https://t.co/KH3mVGkrHl " / X Ueda reiterates that BOJ will lift rates if outlook realised ( businesstimes.com.sg ) Intel's Dow status under threat as struggling chipmaker's shares plunge ( msn.com ) Bitcoin price won't hit $100,000 this year, experts say ( qz.com ) Trump Media stock falls to new post-merger lows ( qz.com ) Investors flock to venture capital trusts amid fears of looming tax hikes | This is Money French finance ministry's deficit warning adds to Macron's political headache - SWI swissinfo.ch

VW considers closing German factory for first time in 87-year history, some news just after weekend elections results in Germany Israel-Gaza ongoing tensions/Labour strikes and protest nationwide, UKR-RU new strikes inside Russia, has Putin changed his stance on peace talks?, China's military build up around Taiwan, U.S seizes Venezuelan President's plane, going to be a key few months ahead EU again imports more gas from Russia than from US The S&P 500 is now trading at 2.9x sales, nearly double the historical median and approaching its peak valuation from Q4 2021 At 5,648, the S&P 500 is now above every 2024 year-end price target from Wall Street strategists and 16% above the average target (4,861). And there's still 4 months to go China has come to a sudden stop in Manufacturing France's Macron accelerates efforts to break PM deadlock Goldman Slashes Copper Forecast on Softening Chinese Demand . Bank cuts copper estimate for 2025 by almost $5,000 a ton-BBG >>> Energy markets remains on edge on supply shortages. Sentiment was also supported by the prospect of easing monetary policy in the US Samsung's recent breakthrough in silver-based solid-state battery technology could not only transform the EV landscape , but also send shockwaves through the silver market USDollar hit supports around 1.1200 euro, 1.3200-50 area gbp, 0.8400 chf, 68+ oz etc all correcting again together with UST yields, 10's shoudl head 4+, seasonally speaking Sep/Oct are weak months, data staying firm, although ALL focus on NFP on Friday. Gold, Silver, XPT similar price action The far-right’s disturbing success in eastern Germany ( ft.com ) Terror in Ukraine as Russia makes bombshell war gains after Kursk invasion ( msn.com ) and apparently Putin Shifts Stance on Ukraine Peace Talks Amid Kursk Incursion - Newsweek Nicolas Maduro: US seizes Venezuela president’s airplane in the Dominican Republic | CNN Politics Japan protests against second territorial incursion by China in under a week | The Straits Times Netanyahu asks Israelis for 'forgiveness' over hostage deaths ( bbc.com ) Biden says Netanyahu not doing enough to secure hostage and ceasefire deal as he nears presenting a final proposal | CNN Politics France's Macron accelerates efforts to break PM deadlock - CNA ( channelnewsasia.com ) Goldman Slashes Copper Forecast on Softening Chinese Demand - Bloomberg Oil falls as OPEC reiterates commitment to production hikes — Breakwave Advisors Solid-State EV Batteries Could Drive Silver Demand: How to Invest - The Globe and Mail How how these sanctions working ?... EU again imports more gas from Russia than from US ( msn.com ) Finland to Ban Russians From Buying Property in Security Fix - Bloomberg How a Recent Major CRE Bond Failure Happened ( globest.com ) i nvestors in the AAA tranche of $308M debt backed by 1740 Broadway in midtown Manhattan received only 74% of their money. Creditors in the five lower groups were totally wiped out Bill Ackman Says X Ban Will Make Brazil an ‘Uninvestable Market’ ( yahoo.com ) VW considers closing German factory for first time in 87-year history ( yahoo.com ) Wegovy could prevent COVID-19 deaths: study ( qz.com ) Intel CEO's cost-cutting pitch to include Altera spin-out and retreat from German plant, source says ( yahoo.com ) Elon Musk's X banned in Brazil by Supreme Court ( qz.com ) Glencore on X: "At our AGM, 90% of shareholders backed our 2024-2026 Climate Action Transition Plan. Head of Sustainability Anna Krutikov explains the updates, changes, and next steps, supported by 4 key strategic pillars. Watch the full explanation below 🎥 https://t.co/F3uzBKBFYg " / X Swiss pensions and child allowances to increase from 2025 - SWI swissinfo.ch Swiss tourist hotspot Zermatt considers day tripper fees - SWI swissinfo.ch