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Iran Updates : Trump : we were going to escort the ships...then..US officials claim Trump didn't mean US would escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz but guide them to safe passages without any underwater mines, more importantly : China's Ministry of Commerce just officially declared it will not recognize, implement, or comply with US sanctions on Iranian oil purchases Markets : The real energy-oil shock is 3 to 4 weeks away, Spirit airlines is the first casualties in the industry, Moskow hit by drones, TSLA 'most successful CON', Crude $100+ still >>> markets been pumped into April, AI had a massive push again + techs, a correction coming in Mai, very most likely as the 'real' energy shortages start, JPY defo worth a play, it has been way overdue (IF inflation is too high, and it is in Japan, either hike or manufacture currency higher - or both), seems MoF is going to force JPY higher for a bit....if that's so 7-10pct move should be on the card, otherwise 'why bother'.. >>> might want to consider shorts in CROSSJPY's too.. Jensen says Nvidia now has 'zero percent' market share in China — says US export policy 'has already largely backfired' #GOLD #silver : Wall Street is finally catching up. Here are the latest 2026 gold & silver price targets (Thread) Mark Carney just nailed it: Countries that rushed into dodgy deals with the US under Trump got deals “not worth the paper they were written on.” Ford CEO Jim Farley: We should not let Chinese EVs into the US. He said, "It's the most humbling thing I've ever seen. They have far superior in-vehicle tech." Morgan Stanley has again raised its capex forecasts for the five hyperscalers (Thread) Saudi Arabia has come to view Israel and its actions as a threat to regional security and sees the UAE’s alignment with Israel in a poor light Tesla is the most successful CON in the history of capital markets (Thread) Oil market one month from crunch point as global stockpiles dwindle – The Irish Times JPY intervention – unilateral or joint will be key | articles | ING THINK USD/JPY forecast: Japanese yen outlook after the $35 billion BoJ intervention Banks seek to offload risk to avoid ‘choking’ on data centre debt How the Iran war is reshaping Saudi strategy: From Hormuz and Houthis to the UAE’s OPEC exit | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank Jensen says Nvidia now has 'zero percent' market share in China — says US export policy 'has already largely backfired' | Tom's Hardware Moscow shaken by drone strike — Explosions just 6 km from Kremlin | RBC-Ukraine What does Spirit Airlines' shutdown mean for travelers? Resource Alpha on X: "Wall Street is finally catching up. Here are the latest 2026 gold & silver price targets: Gold: - J.P. Morgan: $6,300 - UBS: $6,200 (bull case $7,200) - Wells Fargo: $6,100 – $6,300 - Deutsche Bank: $6,000 - Goldman Sachs: $5,400 - Steve Hanke: $6,000 – $7,000 **Silver https://t.co/qUbwyF8mLO" / X Holger Zschaepitz on X: "Morgan Stanley has again raised its capex forecasts for the five hyperscalers Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle. It now expects them to spend about $805bn this year, up from a previous estimate of $765bn. For next year, the forecast has been lifted from $951bn to https://t.co/PkboNQ8PD0" / X 🇨🇳 Liu Feng 刘锋 on X: "BREAKING: China's Ministry of Commerce just officially declared it will not recognize, implement, or comply with US sanctions on Iranian oil purchases. Five named Chinese refineries sanctioned by Washington for buying Iranian crude: 🇨🇳 Hengli Petrochemical (Dalian) 🇨🇳 Shandong https://t.co/6A5uxDvMDV" / X (24) The Fed just changed hands - The new chair is a hawk. | LinkedIn On May 15, Jerome Powell hands over the keys. The man who held rates steady through an oil shock, a diplomatic collapse, and four internal rebellions is done. Kevin Warsh cleared the Senate committee on Friday. He thinks rates should be higher. George Noble on X: "Tesla is the most successful CON in the history of capital markets. Not because the cars are bad. But because the entire business is engineered to impress on first glance and collapse under scrutiny. And the culture around it has made facts completely IRRELEVANT. I've never https://t.co/5NnQQqTQoK" / X Rare bear sighting in Swiss valley - SWI swissinfo.ch

Belgium plans to nationalize all the country's nuclear power reactors, and says that plans to decommission the plants are now "halted with immediate effect." #URA Markets : U.S. Jobless Claims plunge to 189,000, lowest since March 1969,The national debt just exceeded 100% of GDP for the first time since 1946, JPY intervention confirmed by FM #USDJPY 160 top (JPY was helped with crude sell-off !..), U.S stocks best month since 2020, Iran's supreme leader vows to protect nuclear and missily capabilities!... >>> crude is still $105+, markets on highs (overdone..!), Iran-U.S far form clear, let alone over, hard to see real solution from recent comments >>> reduce risk from here, USD had a nice/usual sell-off into month-end, worth squaring up a little too JP Morgan calling out the potential for 2027 interest rate hikes: "We continue to look for a Fed on hold this year, with the next move a firming later next year." PTJ : "If you buy the S&P at this current valuation, the 10-year forward returns are negative when you buy with the S&P P/E of 22. That's what history shows." BoE Gov. Bailey: Monetary policy cannot prevent higher global energy prices from affecting UK economy and inflation, quite!.. The sheer volatility of energy prices makes it impossible to put probabilities on different scenarios ECB: will closely monitor situation, follow data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to monetary policy stance >>> Lagarde's hawkish signal: "we are certainly moving away from our baseline". The unanimous decision to remain on hold was based on "insufficient information, but a rate hike was also discussed today. Deutsche Bank just projected gold at $8,000. Central banks have added 225 million ounces since 2008 while dollar reserves dropped from 60% to 40%. China. Russia. India. Turkey. Saudi Arabia. UAE. All buying. If gold hits just 40% of central bank reserves — Deutsche Bank's model says $8,000. China Signals First Nuclear Supercarrier, A New Era at Sea U.S. Debt Tops 100% of GDP - WSJ Iran's leader vows to protect nuclear and missile capabilities | AP News US stocks hit record highs in Wall Street’s best month since 2020 Yen surges as Japan reportedly intervenes to counter currency weakness Trump Eyes More U.S. Oil Output as Iran War Squeezes Supply | OilPrice.com ECB Sources: June Rate Hike Very Likely as Governors Debate Further Tightening ECB governors discussed the required amount of policy tightening on Thursday. Several governors believe at least two rate hikes may be needed unless the war ends and Brent crude falls quickly Some policymakers reportedly pushed for a hike on Thursday, but were willing to wait until June Sources say a June rate hike is very likely, with broad agreement on the need to move Apple shares rise after strong earnings beat | News.az FDA proposes excluding Novo, Lilly GLP-1s from compounding list Eli Lilly Foundayo prescriptions: 20,000 people taking drug, Ricks says Bull Theory on X: "BREAKING: Japan just confirmed a massive Yen-buying intervention. Last time the Bank of Japan sold US dollars to save the Yen, global markets crashed brutally. But this time it is even worse. Today they are dealing with two problems at the same time. Japan's 10 year bond https://t.co/kHvgv8YLgS" / X Belgium enters exclusive talks to take over ENGIE’s nuclear fleet Defence Index on X: "⭕🇬🇧🇪🇺🇷🇺 UK Builds New Naval Alliance to Counter Russia in Europe’s North The United Kingdom is forming a unified maritime force with nine European nations under the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) to deter potential threats from Russia across the “open sea border” in Northern https://t.co/gbLcXmV6Iw" / X Sam Badawi on X: "PAUL TUDOR JONES ON BUYING THE S&P 500 RIGHT NOW: "If you buy the S&P at this current valuation, the 10-year forward returns are negative when you buy with the S&P P/E of 22. That's what history shows." Jones called the 1987 crash before it happened. He's not predicting a https://t.co/Sz7awktBny" / X Defence Index on X: "⭕🇨🇳 China Signals First Nuclear Supercarrier, A New Era at Sea China is hinting at its first nuclear powered aircraft carrier, a potential 110,000+ ton supercarrier capable of operating 100+ fighter jets. If realized, this would mark a major leap from conventional carriers, https://t.co/7fKyNsgXdb" / X

FOMC was deeply divided for Jerome's last meeting, Iran clouds outlook on inflation, 4 dissenters, 2 wanted go vie up the dovish bias and 1 only wanted to cut, 10's UST yields 4.42%, and 30's at 5% now.. Iran update : US Central Command has prepared a plan for a “short and powerful” wave of strikes on Iran, likely including infrastructure targets, according to the Axios report, Brent hit a wartime high above $123, Trump earlier told the news outlet that he would not lift his naval blockade without a nuclear deal Markets : The longer Hormuz stays closed, the more of this $14T in USD that will return home to the US to bid for US oil, gas, & grains, markets now pricing in a 50% chance the Fed will raise rates by April 2027, META-MSFT earnings reports had a lot of red flags on the capex outlook.. >>> World Gold Council: 95% of central banks expect to increase their gold reserves in 2026 Germany now produces more ammunition than the U.S. Rheinmetall boosted artillery output from 70K → 1.1M rounds/year Key takeaways from Powell’s last meeting as Fed chair | CNN Business Federal Reserve Board - Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement Iran’s Guards Seize Wartime Power, Blunting Supreme Leader's Role No Way Out: Why Permanent Damage to Persian Gulf Oil Wells Begins Now – NaturalNews.com Ukraine war latest: Russian helicopters struck in Russia's Voronezh Oblast, Ukraine's elite drone unit says Germany can now make more ammunition than the U.S. says defence giant boss The Real Reason France Took All Its Gold Back from the U.S. | Andy Schectman & Michelle Makori Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett says commodities could dominate the rest of the decade. BlackRock is moving away from the 60/40 portfolio. Capital is rotating into: gold miners, copper, uranium, energy. Gold squeezed between safe-haven allure, rate fears as underlying demand holds Where to now for OPEC after shock UAE exit? – The Armchair Trader Why Warren Buffett's cash hoard looks wise — and Greg Abel must tread carefully Mercedes-Benz Q1 2026 earnings: Profit drops as China sales fall Mercedes-Benz Q1 Results Revenue -5% Profit -17% Margin -44% The margin is now only at 4%. Mercedes-Benz has announced plans to reduce its global production capacity by more than 10% to approximately 2.2 million units in order to achieve cost savings....it's tough out there UBS entlässt und entlässt – Schuld sei Keller-Sutter – Inside Paradeplatz Burnham: Labour needs to change course after local elections Microsoft tops Q3 estimates, says AI business up 123% year over year Amazon (AMZN) Q1 earnings report 2026 Alphabet earnings send the stock higher. The company just posted massive cloud growth. - MarketWatch Meta Q1 2026 earnings report Meta down 7%, Google up 6% after hours, AMZM and MSFT not much into it

FOMC : could the message be 'rate cuts off the table for long while' Iran update : Trump Tells Aides to Prepare for Extended Blockade of Iran. The president prefers decisive victories, but none of the available options provides him with a swift exit from the conflict Markets : JPM on AI data center spending. Eye-popping projections (Thread), The U.S. wants to ban China’s High-Tech cars (can't compete fast enough..), Gold reserves have eclipsed adjusted dollar reserves, big earnings day after the bell (AMZN, META, Google and MSFT), China's Real Estate Market has erased all gains from the last 20 years, Hedge fund repo borrowing is now up to a record $3.4 trillion (Thread) >>> regular question coming through "If oil prices are above $100/barrel and the Iran War isn't over, why are stocks at record highs?"... let's see how goes after FOMC (no cut for longer ?..partly expected mind) and MAG4 earnings after the bell ! >>> we've had a huge rally since early April, worth considering a hedging trade from here! #SPX500 #QQQ Jamie Dimon today: "The way it's going now, there will be some kind of bond crisis.", he added that 'credit downturn will be worse than people think', he is the head of the largest U.S bank after all.. UAE says it's leaving the OPEC oil cartel from May 1. "... Following its exit, the UAE will continue to act responsibly, bringing additional production to market in a gradual and measured manner, aligned with demand and market conditions..." >>> pretty clear they want to pump more oil over time..Iran War amplifies UAE isolation and rift with Saudis Wall Street banks boost Treasury holdings to highest level since 2007 Iranians Feel the Pain as Their Economy Descends into a Death Spiral. Businesses are closing, unemployment is soaring, and food is increasingly unaffordable. (WSJ) King Charles to President Trump: “Indeed you recently commented, Mr. President, that if it were not for the United States, European countries would be speaking German. Dare I say that if it wasn't for us, you'd be speaking French” The Fed’s Rate Cuts Are On Pause. But Are They Also Off the Table? - WSJ One of the more memorable lines of Jay Powell's tenure came almost exactly two years ago when he dispatched a question about stagflation. Inflation had been steadily improving, the economy was solid, and the premise was far enough removed from reality that Powell quipped, "I don't see the 'stag' or the 'flation,' actually." Fast forward to this week. Powell's last meeting as chair caps a stretch in which the parallel to the 1970s isn't as easy to dismiss. The focus this week—aside from the looming "regime change"—will be on a quiet committee debate over whether to admit that rate cuts are off the table Trump claims King 'agrees' Iran shouldn't have nuclear weapon in White House banquet speech - live updates - BBC News Options Brief - Mag 7 earnings on deck - 28 April 2026 | Saxo Bank Switzerland Jamie Dimon warns of 'some kind of bond crisis' ahead as global debt risks build Trump tells aides to prepare for extended blockade of Iran Wall Street banks boost Treasury holdings to highest level since 2007 Iran’s economy was in a dire state before the war. Now millions face job losses and poverty | CNN Robinhood shares fall as Q1 earnings and revenue miss estimates Robinhood stock crashes -8.5% after-hours as the company reveals it will cost $100 million to integrate Trump Accounts. UAE Quits OPEC Amid Iran War, Shaking Global Oil Order – Outlook Business (1) Iran War Amplifies UAE Isolation and Rift with Saudis The U.S. Wants to Ban China’s High-Tech Cars, but They’re Already Here in El Paso - WSJ The Kobeissi Letter on X: "BREAKING: Hedge fund repo borrowing is now up to a record $3.4 trillion. Repo borrowing is a form of short-term financing where hedge funds pledge Treasuries as collateral to borrow cash, allowing them to make levered bets. Repo borrowing has more than TRIPLED since 2019. https://t.co/YCWTcEDHcp" / X Brian Sozzi on X: "JP Morgan on AI data center spending. Eye-popping projections: "Data center capex among the top 4 U.S. cloud service providers continues to trend higher for 2026 following the last update, as the industry continues to see investments in AI and related infrastructure https://t.co/EY8ykZm9kr" / X Ben Norton on X: "This bombshell report shows how the US government buys black market gold from violent Colombian drug cartels, but falsely claims the gold originated in the US. Ironically the US government designated these cartels as terrorist orgs, as it buys their gold. https://t.co/Pzv04Oainn https://t.co/gwU7Br928z" / X Vote on June 14: Poll shows majority in favor of the SVP's 10 million Swiss initiative | blue News UBS profits rocket 80% to $3 billion for first quarter beat Lukas Ekwueme on X: "Gold reserves have eclipsed adjusted dollar reserves. Our financial system is changing before our own eyes. Gold is quickly regaining its spot at the center of our financial system. This means increasing competition for dollars/US Treasuries at a time when the US is spending https://t.co/MTSRbpel8Y" / X

Iran update : The White House is weighing Iran’s latest proposal but maintained “red lines” on any deal to end the war. The WSJ reported that Donald Trump and his advisers were wary of Tehran’s offer, particularly regarding the country’s nuclear program, Trump not happy with latest Iran proposal to end the war (NYT and WSJ), Iran's latest proposal would set aside discussion of Iran's nuclear program until the war is ended and disputes over shipping from the Gulf are resolved, US being ‘humiliated’ by Iran, says German Chancellor Friedrich Merz Markets : South Korea surpassed the UK to become the world’s eighth-biggest stock market, small miss for Novartis, BoJ 'expected hawkish hold', government bond yields are set to stay higher for longer (Blackrock), GS warns on software stocks again, U.S. Farm bankruptcies surge +46% as fertilizer costs squeeze Farmers, Semiconductor Stocks are now trading at a 60x PE, the richest valuation since the Dot Com Bubble (after the best month in 25years.. (..flow of momentum funds is insanely fast!..but once the hyperscalers throw in the towel on CapEx...it's over again).. >> hawkish FOMC; ECB, BoE expected (hikes priced!), Bank of England could surprise given split vote, markets on all time highs and crude is still $100... PM's softer (new opportunity to long coming), USD not doing much, CROSJPY's on highs with higher yields overall and no BoJ surprise.. (hike maybe in June... expected) Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney today: “Many of our former strengths, built on our close ties to the US, have become weaknesses. The US has changed.” “We’re deepening our partnerships with the EU, the Nordic countries, and Australia.” NYT: Europe is preparing for a long war with Russia as the US has effectively withdrawn from peace negotiations/thread Goldman Sachs saying there is another cliff for software stocks to fall off of. From today: "We expect the debate around AI disruption, and therefore uncertainty about many companies' terminal value, will persist for at least several quarters. The threat of disruption will likely represent a persistent overhang until the later stages of AI adoption. In the meantime, disproving this disruption narrative is challenging. For investors to have confidence in the long-term impact of AI, it will require more evidence of where AI is impacting earnings, which could take several quarters if not years." US being ‘humiliated’ by Iran, says German Chancellor Friedrich Merz Tymofiy Mylovanov on X: "NYT: Europe is preparing for a long war with Russia as the US has effectively withdrawn from peace negotiations. 15 months ago Trump promised to stop the war in one day. Today analyst James Sherr: “We find ourselves largely where we began in the negotiations.” 1/ https://t.co/v07YrqaXFI" / X China Opens Government Bond Futures Trading to Foreign Investors - Bloomberg Bank of Japan holds rates, raises inflation outlook | News.az BlackRock says higher government bond yields are here to stay Oil giant Shell agrees to buy Canada’s ARC Resources for $16.4 billion Swiss government looking at replacing Microsoft South Korea braces for an end to modern life as we know it South Korea passes UK to become world's eighth-largest stock market | World News - Business Standard Revolut targets $200bn valuation for IPO | Sifted Novartis Q1 profit misses expectations as sales fall on generic headwinds By Investing.com Over 16,000 Claude users worry AI will take their jobs, finds Anthropic – Firstpost ‘Kiss of death’: how the US killed a Swiss merchant bank - SWI swissinfo.ch she actually predicted the future ... Anonymous on X: "Karoline Leavitt "It will be funny, it will be entertaining, there will be some shots fired tonight in the room. Everyone should tune it, it's gonna be really great!" Yes, she actually said this 👆 https://t.co/rgoM5QzUr2" / X Hedgeye on X: "U.S. Farm Bankruptcies Surge +46% as Fertilizer Costs Squeeze Farmers: The American Farm Bureau Federation reported 315 Chapter 12 bankruptcy filings in 2025, up from 216 in 2024 and the third consecutive annual increase. The Midwest got hit hardest with 121 filings, a +70% https://t.co/dRhRbrPL9B" / X

Iran war update : Ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon for 3 weeks, says Trump, but Oil climbed for a fifth day on a lack of perceived progress between the US and Iran on resuming talks, with the Strait of Hormuz effectively remaining shut. Donald Trump’s social media posts and threats are hindering Tehran’s willingness to engage in peace talks, officials said, Israel and Lebanon will extend their ceasefire by three weeks, Trump said, creating space for broader talks and easing an obstacle to ending the US-Iran war-BBG, “The Strait of Hormuz will remain blocked until $11 trillion in frozen Iranian assets are released. If no proposal is presented within the next 48 hours, the ceasefire may end.” Abbas Araghchi >>> still remains a little shaky.. Markets : confusion, no resolution in Hormuz though for now, but it seems (we hope) they are trying to resolve 'some' issues..., crude prices disagreed yesterday though, equity sold off on some headlines yesterday, but back to where we were most of yesterday-all week, all pretty quiet in FX and bonds, CHF slightly weaker this week (turn?), big MAG7 earnings next week, DeepSeek V4 chatters too Ex-Brexit boss says Britain should rejoin EU after 'failed promises' Saudi Arabia Blocks a Major U.S.–Israeli Regional Project, Tel Aviv in Turmoil DeepSeek unveiled its V4 Flash and V4 Pro AI models, pitching them as its most powerful open-source systems to rival OpenAI and Anthropic Microsoft plans first-ever voluntary employee buyout for up to 7% of U.S. workforce Russia sold 22 tons of gold in Q1 2026 — nearly 40% of all the net gold it bought across the previous six years, as Crude revenues collapsed (no longer in Q2..) GS : This Time is Different (from 2022) — The Impact of Higher Energy Prices on European Manufacturing Industries Trump: “I took a lot of heat for saying drugs were going down 500%, 600%, 700%. But we also say sometimes 50%, 60%, it’s a different kind of calculation, and people understand it better.”....ok then #GBP Ex-Brexit boss says Britain should rejoin EU after 'failed promises' Polish PM questions whether US is ‘loyal’ to Europe’s defence Japan core inflation accelerates after five months as Iran war stokes energy worries Dow CEO says clearing the Strait of Hormuz logjam will take almost a year There you have it : The Tennessee Holler on X: "“Are you concerned about insider trading on these prediction markets re: the war?” TRUMP: “The world is a casino. It is what it is.” 🤷🏼 And there you have it, folks! https://t.co/9fy5Z7T9CV" / X (1) I Flagged Every Trade - by Peter Girnus "$2.1 billion in perfectly timed oil bets across five presidential announcements in six weeks. Every one flagged. Every report filed. Every committee briefed. Bottled water: sparkling. Minutes: distributed. Zero prosecutions in fourteen years Peter Girnus 🦅 on X: "$2.1 billion in perfectly timed oil bets across five presidential announcements in six weeks. Every one flagged. Every report filed. Every committee briefed. Bottled water: sparkling. Minutes: distributed. Zero prosecutions in fourteen years. I pulled the case files. https://t.co/pBjk9rITkY" / X Earnings next week ! Mag 7 Earnings Preview April 2026 | Saxo Bank Switzerland DeepSeek Releases DeepSeek V4-Pro & V4-Flash, Delivers GPT 5.4 & Opus 4.6-Level Performance At Fraction Of The Price Microsoft plans first voluntary retirement program for US employees China pulse 🇨🇳 on X: "UNUSUAL High‑Impact English Translation Saudi Arabia Blocks a Major U.S.–Israeli Regional Project, Tel Aviv in Turmoil Saudi Arabia has effectively halted a massive Israeli‑American trade corridor initiative, triggering intense frustration in Tel Aviv. Riyadh refused to https://t.co/fPyHA7VWU2" / X ...US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a number of allies in the Gulf region and in Asia have requested currency swap lines from the United States to help deal with energy shocks and other fallout from the Middle East war.... Bulgaria’s Kremlin-friendly ex-president wins election in landslide | CNN This Time is Different (from 2022) — The Impact of Higher Energy Prices on European Manufacturing Industries

#UBS The Swiss government has laid out plans that would force UBS to increase its capital by at least $20bn Iran war update : a lot of confusing comments from far too many different parties.. Trump wants out of Iran for domestic political reasons. But he knows that making a deal resembling the 2015 Obama deal, or one that suggests he's cutting and running, will hurt him politically. If he extends the ceasefire in Iran, it will confirm he only wants a deal. Iran will see right through that. The White House said Donald Trump has not set a firm deadline to receive an Iranian peace proposal while Tehran says it has no plans to take part in negotiations imminent-BBG, John Phelan ousted after clashing with defence secretary Pete Hegseth, Iranian tankers bypass US blockade Dozens of ships exiting the Gulf include several loaded with Iranian oil... Markets : CHINA sold oil aggressively (Mercuria CEO), equity markets holding up well, AI related names, MAG7 etc recovered fast from early April rally, bumpy road ahead though, the real pain comes now ( inflation, crude shortages etc), things can turn swiftly, that all said, Trump seems desperate for some sort of 'exit' out of Iran situation, the longer it goes on, the worse it is for him and med-terms..the hard data will get softer from here, specific downgrades in earnings likely too, it's not all bad though if Kevin Marsh is right, and AI kills inflation... but that's for later on.. China May Overtake US as World’s Top Nuclear Power Operator by 2030, CNEA Says Japan Finance Minister Katayama: FSA and BoJ will meet with megabanks on Friday to discuss the AI model Mythos Italy has become the second country in the European Union, after France, to exceed €3 trillion in public debt, according to Eurostat data Dutch intelligence says Russia has suffered over 1.2 million military casualties in Ukraine, while Ukrainian losses are estimated at more than 500,000 Kevin Warsh, the new Fed Chair, just made it clear why rates are going lower: “AI is going to make almost everything cost less. We’re at the front end of a productivity boom. Economic growth won’t be inflationary—we’re in the early innings of a structural decline in prices.” And finally... RFK Jr: "President Trump has a different way of calculating percentages. If you have a $600 drug and you reduce it to $10, that's a 600% reduction." - not even kidding.. Trump news at a glance: Pentagon replaces secretary of the navy amid US blockade in strait of Hormuz | Trump administration | The Guardian China "Aggressively" Dumps Oil In Tenders As Iran War Reshapes Flows | OilPrice.com Iranian tankers bypass US blockade Strait of Hormuz mine-clearing could take 6 months, Congress is told - The Washington Post Kevin Warsh's preferred inflation measure could come back to bite him UBS says Swiss capital plan 'disproportionate', would weaken bank and economy Clash Report on X: "Former U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry: Netanyahu presented the Iran War case to us too. The response was no. The prediction was regime change — that people would rise up. None of that happened. Obama said no. Bush said no. Biden said no. We were lied to about what that https://t.co/J7NiWxt67f" / X Russia to suspend Kazakh oil flows through key pipeline supplying Berlin China May Overtake US as World’s Top Nuclear Power Operator by 2030, CNEA Says JPMorgan Says China Property Tipping Point Will Drive Up Stocks - Bloomberg Putin finally admits Russia's economy is in trouble and grasps for answers | Fortune Tesla (TSLA) Q1 Earnings: How Key Metrics Compare to Wall Street Estimates Brian Krassenstein on X: "OMFG! RFK Jr: "President Trump has a different way of calculating percentages. If you have a $600 drug and you reduce it to $10, that's a 600% reduction." No, you imbecile. That’s a 98.33% drop. No math besides make-believe math makes it 600%. https://t.co/5lmJ24WXur" / X WORDS FAIL !.... how is this even possble, may be we all need to go back to school..

Iran war update : Trump talked to anyone about a done deal, none of it was true, Iran didn't blink, so... we get ''ceasefire extended'' ie. indefinite till they reach some sort of agreement where they both win... >> an angry reaction he got outplayed.. >>> Donald Trump extended a ceasefire with Iran and kept a US blockade in place, while JD Vance called off a trip to Islamabad for negotiations that Iran refused to attend, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi called the maritime restrictions “an act of war >>> Trump is getting closer to getting out of this war irrespective of outcomes in the Middle East region... Markets : Mythos Ai model in focus, TSLA earnings today, SPACEX reality check, '' Half of planned US data center builds have been delayed or cancelled'', Hormuz disruption raises fears of global food crisis #fertilizers >>> equity markets sitting near highs, crude still $90 ca., these negotiations could go on for a while and/or Trump eventually ''walks away'' and lets EU-CHINA and RoW to sort out the mess with Hormuz and the Middle East Anthropic’s Mythos AI model was accessed by a few unauthorized users , a person familiar said. The firm is investigating and has seen no evidence of impacted systems #USD The UAE's request for a swap line -- presumably after a big fall in the central bank's $285b in reserves in March/ early April -- confirms that the GCC countries are now a net drain on offshore dollar liquidity Exclusive-SpaceX says unproven AI Space data centers may not be commercially viable , Filing Shows Trump Extends Iran Ceasefire, Keeps Blockade as Talks Falter Tymofiy Mylovanov on X: "Trump spoke to Bloomberg, CBS, Axios and the New York Post in one morning. He claimed Iran agreed to an "unlimited" nuclear suspension, to hand over its enriched uranium, and to a weekend deal. None of it was true. A near-deal collapsed within hours — CNN. 1/ https://t.co/4a4jpJLbm3 " / X One of the better 'low jargon' analysis explaining Hormuz crisis (1) (WCTW) The Oil Market Breaking Point Is Here ‘Clock is ticking’: Hormuz disruption raises fears of global food crisis | UN News #UAE #USD liquidity Brad Setser on X: " The UAE's request for a swap line -- presumably after a big fall in the central bank's $285b in reserves in March/ early April -- confirms that the GCC countries are now a net drain on offshore dollar liquidity . The Saudis also will need to borrow dollars to get through 1/ https://t.co/moEfi3QARg " / X Iran threatens to 'break US blockade by force' as it issues Hormuz Strait ultimatum Kevin Warsh pledges Fed independence but dodges questions on rates Exclusive-SpaceX Says Unproven AI Space Data Centers May Not Be Commercially Viable, Filing Shows Japan exports rise for seventh month as AI demand blunts Mideast risks for now | Reuters Lufthansa cuts 20,000 flights to save fuel as prices soar Half of planned US data center builds have been delayed or canceled, growth limited by shortages of power infrastructure and parts from China — the AI build-out flips the breakers | Tom's Hardware Javier Milei faces the dilemma of lowering inflation or boosting the economy in Argentina | International | EL PAÍS English Sold away gold, economy ruined... tricky path.. Felix Prehn 🐶 on X: "The Fed just bought $40.5 billion in US government debt and called it "reserve management" so you wouldn't notice. They stopped calling it money printing in 2022. Changed the name. Same operation. Different press release. Here's what's actually happening. The US government owes" / X FBI Director Kash Patel sues the Atlantic claiming false reporting about drinking, absences | Reuters

Iran update : All happening in Islamabad again, Trump aims to seal Iran deal, says truce extension unlikely, just got extended by 1 day.. (who to trust, what to believe in this giant poker game..stop posting silly stuff on truth social perhaps ?..), JD Vance will lead the US delegation, new deadline is Wed evening DC time, FWIW >> as it turns out, it doesn't take much to hold a $100+ trillion global economy at risk... Trump: I have declared a national emergency under Executive Order 14156, and I further determine that action to expand the domestic petroleum production, refining, and logistics capacity is necessary to avert an industrial resource or critical technology item shortfall that would severely impair national defense capability. Therefore, pursuant to section 303(a)(7) of the Act, I waive the requirements of section 303(a)(1)-(a)(6) of the Act for the purpose of expanding such capability Markets : Datacenters are now 7% of total U.S. power demand, Chair nominee Kevin Warsh says Fed must ‘stay in its lane’ to maintain independence, Tim Cook steps down in the summer after 15years as CEO >>> FWIW, still believe Trump does some fort of deal Very similar to the initially agreed JCPOA, now Iran has the upper hand, so they will want more out of it.., only trouble is, a lot is now priced into this scenario and there is always a risk it all goes wrong and Trump losses his rag !!.. Japan to ban local govts from using Chinese IT products - Kyodo (in response to Toyota's CEO article yesterday) The S&P 500 is at an all-time high while Consumer Sentiment is at an all-time low. We've never seen a gap this wide between Wall Street and Main Street..who's right ? Behind Trump's public bravado on the war, he grapples with his own fears - WSJ Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund reins in spending as cash strains force cuts to mega-projects and high-profile global investments Goldman Sachs on stocks/economy: "Relative to the pre-war period, we expect lower growth, higher inflation, higher long-term oil prices , and somewhat higher policy rates, at least in the near-term. Rising earnings expectations have also lowered US equity valuations. This makes the outlook less cyclically supportive but more tech-friendly than early in the year and favors assets on the right side of the terms-of-trade shock." #XAUUSD who bought the most GOLD?... 7 Thread, Wells Fargo is predicting gold could soar to $8K per ounce by next year Russian economy is faltering despite oil windfall, Sweden warns ^^^^^^^^^^^^^ Trump aims to seal Iran deal, says truce extension unlikely Day 52 of Middle East conflict - Trump says extension of ceasefire with Iran is ‘highly unlikely’ | CNN Pakistan confident Iran will attend US talks, senior Pakistani government source says | Reuters Presidential Determination Pursuant to Section 303 of the Defense Production Act of 1950, as Amended, on Domestic Petroleum Production, Refining, and Logistics Capacity – The White House Trump invokes Defense Production Act for energy infrastructure By Investing.com Chair nominee Kevin Warsh says Fed must ‘stay in its lane’ to maintain independence Trump's war anxiety and impulsiveness revealed In this damning piece, the WSJ explains how Trump’s war with Iran has become deeply personal: public bravado, private anxiety; tactical strikes, strategic drift; dramatic threats, improvised diplomacy, using insults as a tactic to bring Iranians to the negotiating table and screaming at aids. Constant desire to change subjects. Being angry at allies. Even his threat to destroy Iranian “civilization” was made without prior coordination with his national security team. A series of miscalculations. This is a portrait of a commander driven less by strategy than impulse, optics, and fear of failure. This is very disturbing. ‘This Isn’t Goodbye…’: Tim Cook’s Emotional Letter To Apple Users Is Deeply Personal, Read It In Full | Republic World Exclusive: Meta targets May 20 for first wave of layoffs; additional cuts later in 2026 | Reuters Saudi Arabia’s Prince Has Big Plans, but His Giant Fund Is Low on Cash - The New York Times Russian economy is faltering despite oil windfall, Sweden warns Wells Fargo predicts gold could hit $8K/oz Jack Prandelli on X: "who bought the most GOLD? 🇨🇳 China: +357T 🇵🇱 Poland: +314T 🇹🇷 Türkiye: +251T 🇮🇳 India: +245T 🇧🇷 Brazil: +105T 🇯🇵 Japan: +80T 🇸🇬 Singapore: +77T 🇮🇶 Iraq: +74T 🇶🇦 Qatar: +73T 🇷🇺 Russia: +55T 🇦🇪 UAE: +51T Notice anything? Every major country on the wrong side of US sanctions, https://t.co/1vyU0NqGPZ " / X NatWest's plan to provide investment education to the nation – The Armchair Trader UK unemployment rate sees surprise fall to 4.9%

Markets : 50 days later, we’re back to no-fighting, no-peace, but also no-oil, inflation clock restarted, confusion rules, Islamabad talks over next 24hours (who's in?, Vance was, wasn't and seems to be going again >>> because he cannot wait much at all..(Iran can..), Trump will do a botched deal which is not different than and/or looks remarkably similar to what Iran was willing to consider before the war... (or all hell breaks, which is no-one's interest..?..), USD should remain soft, PM's will continue to do well, risk, well part of equity world is taken as a 'hedge' against inflation, UST's to be avoided unless you have to, BTC doing OK, seems 65-70K support has now held for long while (bulls ), allow for delay, trust running thin between U.S and Iran, it won't be settled in days, it's been 50years.. Geopolitics : Iraq is spending $17B to make the Strait of Hormuz irrelevant (Thread) #USD #UST UAE to Trump Administration: "You started this war; if we run short of USDs as a result of it, either you will give us USD swap lines, or we will be forced to start transacting oil and gas in CNY and other currencies." WSJ The IMF is now in total panic mode with the unravelling of Milei. So, they’re forking out more money in an attempt to stem the rising inflation, unemployment, and popular anger, looks like Musk's best friend has hit the economy hard.. Good analysis IMHO.. . Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش on X: "At a broad level, it’s important to acknowledge a hard truth: this war is a textbook case of the old saying - "Strategy must precede action" The underlying assumption in the US and Israel was that weakening Iran kineticly would eventually lead to the collapse of the regime and" / X Mario Nawfal on X: "🇮🇶 Iraq is spending $17B to make the Strait of Hormuz irrelevant. The Development Road is a 1,200km rail + highway from the Gulf to Turkey, then into Europe. No Hormuz. No Suez Canal. No chokepoints. The southern anchor is Grand Al-Faw Port, one of the region’s largest planned https://t.co/4a5kGoFnQ0 " / X CEO Toyota: "We won't survive – The Chinese will tear us apart" – Pronews.gr US Navy disables and seizes Iranian-flagged cargo ship, Trump says Tehran has ‘no plans to participate’ in new talks, state media reports, as it accuses US of violating ceasefire | US-Israel war on Iran | The Guardian Trump issues expletive-laden threat to Iran over Hormuz Strait blockage How 50 days of the Iran war led to the loss of $50 billion worth of oil | Reuters Gulf states turn to private deals in $10bn wartime borrowing spree (1) Buffett and China Are Making the Same Bet $111 trillion in global debt And every country on this chart is printing more to survive an oil shock they didn't see coming.  US: $38.3T growing 8% annually  China: $18.7T growing 18% annually, 14x faster than global average  EU: $17.6T energy crisis hitting reserves  Japan: $9.8T 80% of oil through blocked Hormuz The debt machine never stops. But Hormuz just made every number on this chart worse. HSBC and Standard Chartered Embroiled in Multimillion-Pound Iran Money Laundering Allegations | CB Terminal IMF approves second review of agreement with Argentina, disburses another $1 billion | EL PAÍS Argentina In a spot of trouble, again.. Keir Starmer battles for Downing Street future amid Peter Mandelson vetting scandal How nice World Cup fans to MetLife Stadium will pay $150 train fares - NJ Transit - ESPN UBS CEO: Integration is complete but next transformation underway - SWI swissinfo.ch Pro investors are rethinking crypto treasury vehicles – The Armchair Trader Entry bans into Switzerland quadrupled in 2025 - SWI swissinfo.ch Qasem Al-Ali on X: "Want to understand Iran’s negotiation strategy today? Don’t read the news. Read history. The Persian playbook is 2,500 years old. And it has never failed them. 🧵" / X

(Bloomberg) -- The Strait of Hormuz “is declared completely open” for all commercial vessels for the remaining period of ceasefire, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says in an X post In line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire, on the coordinated route as already announced by Ports and Maritime Organisation of the Islamic Rep. of Iran. The US considers $20B cash-for-uranium deal with Iran - Axios >>> crude down 10pct to WTI $85 ! risk rally further, usd down fairly sharply, as you would expect happy friday

The Nasdaq 100's RSI went from 28 (oversold) on March 30 to 70.5 (overbought) by April 15 — in just 11 sessions, this is NOT normal (..never happened before), Iran peace talks : T rump says 'deal with Iran very close', Israel and Lebanon agree 10-day ceasefire >>> The oil market though sends a BIG warning. Physical crude is still trading like there is a real supply emergency. Futures are trading like the crisis is almost over. That gap is NOT normal.. ($200 for 'some' Asia delivery currently..), jet fuel shortages in Europe & Asia within 6 weeks >>> Macron and Starmer Hold International Summit on reopening the Strait of Hormuz Markets : The global sulphur squeeze has transitioned from a theoretical risk to a direct catalyst for a production cliff (Thread), IEA Head: Europe has 'maybe' 6 weeks of jet fuel left - AP News, Saudi PIF unveils new 5-year investment strategy that will narrow its focus to 6 areas, including tourism and manufacturing, as it reprioritises spending!, Portugal (again) and Slovenia sell Yuan bonds >>> Oil is at the same level where it was on 3/27, when the S&P 500 was 10% lower. this r ally is more about HUGE CTA activity than the Iran war, and now we hear Gulf & European officials saying a U.S - Iran deal will take up to 6months.. Fed's Williams: Seeing emerging signs of supply chain disruptions, Middle east war already lifting inflation Former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson called on US authorities to prepare a back-up plan to avert a potential collapse in demand for Treasuries >> WHY NOW ? ...  It’s because 33% of US debt are set to mature in the next 12 months. That’s $10 trillion dollars..... #GOLD BOJ Governor Ueda : inflation from a negative supply shock is more difficult to rein in with monetary policy than inflation driven by strong demand Putin just lost his "Trojan Horse" inside the EU. Viktor Orban, one of Moscow’s most dependable EU allies, is out. This result carries massive implications for Russia’s ability to project power and disruption across Europe US investor inflows into Hong Kong and China equities are now their highest , in terms of quarterly inflows, in more than three years and are at a new overall record high, reaching nearly half a trillion dollars equivalent COMEX silver inventory has been in freefall since Oct, 530 million oz to 320 million oz in six months Macron and Starmer Hold International Summit on Reopening the Strait of Hormuz US-Iran WAR: Trump's Big Update On Peace Talks, Says 'Deal With Iran Very Close' Deal with Iran ‘looking very good’ amid ceasefire, Donald Trump says | National Post Israel and Lebanon agree 10-day ceasefire, Trump says Saudi wealth fund resets priorities after decade of heavy spending BOJ chief avoids hints of April rate hike, shattering hawkish market bets - CNA Top Foreign Office official Olly Robbins to leave post after Mandelson vetting row Paulson says US should prepare for a 'vicious' bond crash | Watch Jeffrey Gundlach on U.S. Debt, Private Credit and Gold | The Julia La Roche Show IGCP, E.P.E., issues its first Offshore Renminbi (CNH) bond, for an amount of EUR 249 million | IGCP Portugal sold some Yuan bonds in 2019, so now again, and Slovenia too 3 weeks ago Slovenia Expands Global Funding Footprint with Successful Inaugural Renminbi-Denominated Panda Bond Offering | GOV.SI The evolution of digital asset treasury strategies – The Armchair Trader MINING.COM on X: "The global sulphur squeeze has transitioned from a theoretical risk to a direct catalyst for a production cliff. From Indonesian nickel to DRC copper, the leaching chemicals that power the green transition are hitting a wall. Reuters reports that Indonesia’s nickel" / X Felix Prehn 🐶 on X: "Oracle just signed a deal for 2.8 gigawatts of fuel cells because the American power grid can't keep the lights on for AI. Let that land. A trillion-dollar software company is building its own electrical grid. Because the country's grid can't handle the demand. Yesterday" / X CEO of bitcoin firm championed by Nigel Farage leaves company | Nigel Farage | The Guardian You just can't teach that ... Mikhail Khodorkovsky on X: "Putin just lost his "Trojan Horse" inside the EU. Viktor Orban, one of Moscow’s most dependable EU allies, is out. This result carries massive implications for Russia’s ability to project power and disruption across Europe. Here is why Moscow is panicking. 🧵 [1/14] https://t.co/7CYhJS6cuY " / X