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Markets : Fed's Daly 'keep open mind' about Dec rate cut, Scott Bessent says parts of the economy are 'in recession' — but blames the Fed, RBA a little dovish, Macron is officially the most unpopular French President in 70years >>> another wave of circular Ai deals yesterday wasn't not enough to make new highs.., in facts things beginning to break below, chart wise (momentum has been KEY on the way up - so beware if it turns- ..will need a few down days to confirm..VIX key as usual, and the hot ''momo' sectors, AI, metals,rare earth, etc...) , USD strength and a bit of CROSSJPY downside now possible in FX land, crypto down too near KEY supports, all looking like a decent RISK-off scenario ahead of us... even Michael burry is back with a PLTR and NVDA short (Thread - keeps everyone entertained..) Trade : China accuses Netherlands of not working to fix Nexperia dispute, Geopolitics : Trump says Maduro’s days leading Venezuela are numbered, Ukraine says it halted Russian advance north of Pokrovsk, Japan PM Takaichi vows to make robust economy via spending in 17 strategic areas GS's Solomon warned of a 10-20% drawdown in eq markets in the next 12-24 months HSBC CEO Georges Elhedery warns that revenue profiles do not justify massive AI investments . Both Elhedery and General Atlantic’s William Ford stress that productivity benefits and revenue gains will take several years UK's budget talks shortly, preparing groud for decent tax rises! Why the Goldman Sachs CEO isn’t buying the AI jobs freakout Daly says Fed should ‘keep an open mind’ about December rate cut Statement by the Monetary Policy Board: Monetary Policy Decision | Media Releases | RBA China accuses Netherlands of not working to fix Nexperia dispute | Reuters Japan PM Takaichi vows to make robust economy via spending in 17 strategic areas - The Mainichi Chancellor Rachel Reeves to set out priorities in pre-Budget speech - live updates - BBC News Emmanuel Macron most unpopular French president in 70 years Scott Bessent says parts of the economy are 'in recession' Trump says Nvidia can't sell China its best AI chips Liechtenstein’s ‘zombie trust’ woes spread to Caribbean Trump says Maduro’s days leading Venezuela are numbered — as US amasses largest Caribbean military presence in 35 years Ukraine war latest: Ukraine says it halted Russian advance north of Pokrovsk LIVE: Joy in Gaza as Palestinians freed by Israel reunite with families | Israel-Palestine conflict News | Al Jazeera Inside the AI Bubble: How OpenAI & Nvidia are Weaving a Web of Circular Deals – Outlook Business Palantir (PLTR) Q3 earnings 2025 Michael Burry, the hedge fund manager immortalised in the 2015 movie The Big Short, on Monday disclosed a $912mn bet against Palantir’s shares, using derivatives known as options. Stocktwits on X: "BREAKING: The Big Short is back… Michael Burry’s 13F shows he’s betting heavily against AI favorites 66% of his entire portfolio is in $PLTR puts, and another 13.5% is in Nvidia $NVDA puts That’s nearly 80% of Scion Asset Management betting against two of the biggest names in https://t.co/GZAGASQELK " / X

Senate ends Trump’s Global Tariff policy in rare bipartisan vote Markets : crude up a bit as OPEC+ pauses output hike, USD a little firmer overall (beginning to break a few resistances... vs euro, gbp, jpy etc), Equity indicices holding up, although as usual a few area of weakness underneath, credit issues popping out, Geopolitics : is Trump preparing to go to war with Venezuela ?, no tomahawks for UKR for now Swiss bank UBS files application for US banking licence, let them..? Why Warren Buffett now holds more cash than the Fed China will effectively suspend implementation of additional export controls on rare earth metals and terminate investigations targeting US companies in the semiconductor supply chain #AMZN Amazon's ~15bln y/y rise in AWS income looks pretty compelling until you realize that their current capex run rate is 140bln annualized. This has got to go parabolic for that rate of investment to make any sense/Thread Senate vote on nullifying tariffs on Canada demonstrates opposition to Trump's trade policy Fed’s Waller advocates for December rate cut despite government shutdown By Investing.com Gold Steady Around $4,000 After China Ends Some Tax Incentives Trump’s Supporters Should Be Careful What They Wish For by Simon Johnson & Stan A. Veuger - Project Syndicate Why Warren Buffett Now Holds More Cash Than the Fed — What That Signals About the Market Not good .. https://www.scmp.com/business/article/3331284/new-world-development-offers-us19-billion-debt-swap-boost-liquidity Trump says China, other countries can't have Nvidia's top AI chips | Reuters Oil Prices Gain After OPEC+ Pauses Output Hike — Analyst Says Focus Shifts To Price Stability Is Trump preparing to go to war with Venezuela? Taiwan-US Relations - TaiwanPlus Ukraine war latest: Trump won’t sell Tomahawks to Kyiv for now Swiss bank UBS files application for US banking licence - SWI swissinfo.ch UK funds industry calls on Chancellor to rebuild public trust in markets – The Armchair Trader Rachel Reeves considering ‘exit tax’ on wealthy Brits fleeing the UK Federal judges order Trump admin to keep food stamp payments going Four U.S. airlines are calling for an end to the shutdown (4) Bob Elliott on X: "Amazon's ~15bln y/y rise in AWS income looks pretty compelling until you realize that their current capex run rate is 140bln annualized. This has got to go parabolic for that rate of investment to make any sense. h/t @charliebilello for the chart. https://t.co/CJK8SLDcoF " / X

FOMC . .at one point Powell said policy is “restrictive,” the next that the Fed is “taking a step back.”...so which is it ?..seems confusion is the new policy.. >>>> The Fed is cutting, ending QT, quietly buying T-bills, all of which are first steps towards stealth yield-curve control #YCC it's not a CB's job to worry about duration..! might get harder for markets to 'trust the FED and what they up to''.. Markets : Meta sold $30 billion in bonds ('' as AI expansion costs rack up''), Trump Xi agree to 1year truce, ECB holds as expected, Fed Chair pick should be known by Christmas, Bessent says , China manuf PMI in Oct down to 49.0 (lower than exp 49.6), BlackRock stung by loans to Business accused of 'Breathtaking' fraud >>> Bonds sold-off this week ( 10's UST 4.11 again , ''life below 4% not going to happen #supply and FED hesitant for Dec and it was all priced in..), pretty awful equity markets 'underneath', credit issues popping out, MAG7 mixed and clearly 'expansion costs racking up'' , and USdollar slightly firmer, not by much but perhaps a light 'risk-off' sign for next few days-weeks, going into year-end markets are all 'bulled up and full on the Ai trade'.. it's worked like a dream this year, beware of any potential 'momentum' reversal into year-end Geopolitics : Donald Trump-Vladimir Putin Budapest summit axed following Moscow memo. Russian foreign ministry’s maximalist demands for ending Ukraine war led US to scrap planned meeting, Trade : China emerges as US ‘peer rival’ at Xi Jinping-Donald Trump summit. Beijing shows it can force Washington to compromise on trade issues. (FT) US and India sign 10-year defense pact to share info, cooperate on tech The result of the Dutch general election remained too close to call on Thursday afternoon, with the far-right PVV and the liberal D66 tied on 26 seats as the last results trickled in Study: news deprivation is a threat to Swiss democracy Trump and Xi, Hoping to Ease Trade War, Agree to 1-Year Truce - The New York Times Leaders of U.S. and China meet amid trade war : State of the World from NPR : NPR China's Xi urges Asian nations to keep supply chains stable, work together during ‘turbulent’ times US inks 10-year defence pact with India, says Hegseth ECB keeps interest rate at 2% as growth holds up against trade tension Japan finance minister warns against forex volatility after yen plunge | Reuters Bessent lists Fed chair finalists, Trump says decision by end of year Trump-Putin Meet Scrapped - What Happened At The 'Tense Call' Between The Two? | World News - Times Now China manufacturing slump deepens to 6-month low in October, as PMI misses estimates Dow Jones Top Financial Services Headlines at 11 AM ET: BlackRock Stung by Loans to Business Accused of 'Breathtaking' Fraud | The ... | Morningstar >>>> this is 4th private credit collapse in two months, and this one shows exactly why institutional lenders shouldn't be trusted to verify their own collateral Chipotle Stock Craters After Alarming Q3: Analysts Slash Price Targets On Fading Consumer Appetite >>> Either Chipotle has collapsed as a brand or young Americans are out of cash, or perhaps both, certainly another big warning, shares down 45pct YTD.. Big Tech Is Spending More Than Ever on AI and It’s Still Not Enough - WSJ Meta to raise $30 billion in its biggest bond sale as AI expansion costs rack up - The HinduBusinessLine Meta stock tumbles on AI spending despite solid Q3 earnings beat Apple posts record revenue despite slowing iPhone growth Amazon Q3 earnings beat expectations as AWS growth hits 20% Microsoft earnings AI capex is getting quite expensive EndGame Macro on X: "Bessent’s Quiet Warning: Let Japan Hike Before the Market Forces It Bessent’s message to Japan is about the global plumbing. When he urges Japan to give the BOJ room to raise rates, he’s really trying to steady three things: the yen, global funding markets, and the Treasury’s https://t.co/5tR4IPqn9c " / X Ukraine Cuts Ties With Cuba Over Russian War Involvement Repression in Iran worsened after 12-day war with Israel in June, UN probe finds | The Times of Israel US Deploys B-1B Bombers Near Venezuela as USS Gerald Ford Closes In - Newsweek French Police Hunting Stolen Louvre Jewels Arrest More Suspects Dut D66 or PVV as biggest? Final Dutch election votes trickle in - DutchNews.nl Study: news deprivation is a threat to Swiss democracy - SWI swissinfo.ch

War-like chaos in Rio, 2500 cops storm favelas Powell’s December warning exposes Hardening Divisions at Fed, FOMC Statement: Reading Between the Lines (Thread) Markets : FED cuts, as expected and priced, BoJ unch in a 7-2 vote (2 voted to hike), Trump said he had an “amazing” meeting with Xi Jinping in Busan. The US reduced its tariffs on fentanyl to 10% immediately and reached a deal on soybeans and agriculture, Meta (-7%)  and Microsoft (-3%) fell postmarket on cost woes, while Alphabet (+8%)  rallied after a sales beat. Apple and Amazon are due postmarket, Geopolitics : Trump shakes Xi’s hand for 27 seconds and reduces tariffs (taxes on Americans) from 57% to 47% in exchange for China “promising to work hard on fentanyl,” and reverting their limits on rare earths to where they were before a Trump screwed everything up. In other words the meeting was a flop, Rio, Venezuela, Gaza and Ukraine still in the headlines Calpers plans to vote against Elon Musk’s $1 trillion compensation agreement at Tesla Handshakes and whispers: Trump and Xi's meeting…in 73 seconds Live updates: Trump meets with China's Xi Jinping in South Korea Powell’s December Warning Exposes Hardening Divisions at Fed The Fed just cut interest rates despite data blackout Is there really a 'rare-earth crisis' between China and Europe?: Global Times editorial - Global Times Israel strikes Gaza after accusing Hamas of ceasefire violations US could fire Tomahawks into Venezuela: Former ambassador - Newsweek Emergency power outages across Ukraine as Russia launches mass missile, drone attack At least 132 killed in Rio police raid, officials say Bank of Japan holds rates in first policy meeting under Takaichi Gold slump holds as Fed Chair douses hopes for December rate cut Oil steadies as traders set sights on US-China summit and OPEC+ - CNBC TV18 Microsoft tops Q1 earnings estimates, boosted by cloud revenue Meta takes a $16 billion tax hit and earnings miss by wide margin - MarketWatch Nvidia market cap crosses $5 trillion as AI boom powers the stock Dutch centrist liberal Jetten neck and neck in close finish with populist Wilders CalPERS Joins Backlash Against Musk’s $1 Trillion Tesla Pay Plan — Retail Turns Bearish Ahead Of Shareholder Vote EndGame Macro on X: "FOMC Statement: Reading Between the Lines The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%–4.00% and said it will stop shrinking the balance sheet on December 1. On paper, they framed it as a balanced decision , inflation’s still “somewhat elevated,” but job growth has" / X

China officially announces to make Petroyaun deals with Arab states in currencies instead of Petro-dollar agreements (it's a trend) Markets : NVDA 3% away from $5trn valuation, crude lower again (glut ocncerns resurface), GOLD correction (trade truce maybe, it was way too overbought..decent bounce already, Silver up 5% off lows..), Trump and his social network 'prediction trading' (also known as insider trading..), OpenAi is now 'for profit' - surprising anyone believed him on the inset of the non profit set-up.., BoC and FOMC tonight (no data, so FED 'on hold', CPI bakes the next 25bp cut, no new guidance likely), BoJ tom early (wide range of risk-expectations, guidance Dec hike? only 50% priced in, and ECB meeting too (on hold), Ozzie inflation much hgiher #AUD Trade : U.S and South Korea to signdeal to strengthen Ai cooperation, US excludes Rosneft Germany from Russia sanctions, German minister says, Trump, Xi to Discuss Lowering China Tariffs for Fentanyl Crackdown, Geopolitics : Polish jets intercept Russian spy plane over Baltic Sea, Israeli planes strike Gaza City after Netanyahu orders 'powerful attacks' About that Trump deal with Japan on rare earth : Japan does not currently produce rare earth elements commercially, but it has found vast deep-sea deposits and is preparing to begin experimental extraction in 2026. Japan is currently the world's largest importer of rare earths, but these new potential domestic sources could significantly reduce its reliance on other countries, particularly China, for these critical materials Saudi Arabia ‘open’ to using China yuan for oil sales: report Trump and Xi set for tense South Korea meeting — Key issues from tariffs, Rare Earths to Taiwan explained Trump says new Fed chair decision might be made by year-end Israeli planes strike Gaza City after Netanyahu orders 'powerful attacks' - CNA Ukraine-Russia war latest: Polish jets intercept Russian spy plane over Baltic Sea Australia’s inflation tops forecasts at 3.2%, highest in over a year Nvidia pumps $1 billion into Nokia, announces 6G partnership S. Korea, US to sign deal to strengthen AI cooperation: report - The Korea Herald Amazon layoffs to hit 14,000 corporate jobs in big AI push UBS CEO says strategic investments are paying off as profit soars EU Car sector.. Mercedes reports plunge in Q3 operating profit, hit by job cuts | Reuters Uber to launch 100,000 robotaxis with Nvidia from 2027 - Nikkei Asia Oil steadies after monthly drop with glut, geopolitics in focus - CNBC TV18 Gold Plunges Below $4,000 as US-China Truce Erodes Haven Demand Donald Trump's Truth Social Bets on Prediction Markets ChatGPT maker OpenAI restructures as a for-profit company 20 years to give away virtually all my wealth | Bill Gates So instead of lowering the actual cost of energy...he taxes everyone more to subsidise the few who can’t afford the prices his own policies are creating ...hum.. --Dear Mr Clarkson, many brits are counting on you--.. '' https://x.com/Ed_Miliband/status/1983130689890295942

Market : BoJ likely to tighten as RoW eases #JPY (new PM, risk JPN pension funds #rapatriate money and #JPY no longer cheap funding fuelling NIKKEI up), Bessent US stressed role of Monetary Policy in anchoring inflation, Exchange Rate stability in meeting with Japan FinMin, AMZN to cut 30'000 corp workers (just the beginning of AI impact..) , solving #rareearths problem won't happen overnight, it'll take years, but smoothing words form Trump is enough these days, GOLD- precious metals ''healthy correction from way overboiguth levels', FXland zz's really, bonds super quiet zzz's really, all helping 'risk in general' Trade : The Financial Times (FT) has finally admitted reality. It is obvious that “controlled decoupling” is going to happen between the U.S. empire and the BRICS+, Russia’s Lukoil to sell off foreign assets as US sanctions bite Ex-UBS trader Tom Hayes sues bank for $400M after conviction overturned, a very tidy amount, but management threw him under the bus with only one purpose for doing it ! The Fed’s total assets as a % of nominal GDP have fallen to 21.6%, the lowest since Q4 2020 Argentina election results deliver Trump-backed President Javier Milei a bolstered mandate Interesting numbers on Nexperia : their chips are used by half Europe's auto companies, 86% of medical device companies and almost all (95%) the mechanical engineering sector/Thread The Latest: Trump meets with Japan’s newly elected, first female leader, Sanae Takaichi US Treasury's Bessent calls for 'sound' monetary policy in Japan | Reuters Japan’s New Economic Minister Highlights Pros and Cons of Weak Yen Amid Rising Costs - EconoTimes Argentina election results deliver Trump-backed President Javier Milei a bolstered mandate - CBS News Russia’s Lukoil to sell off foreign assets as US sanctions bite – POLITICO Updates: Israel threatens Gaza war restart as Hamas searches for bodies | Israel-Palestine conflict News | Al Jazeera Ukraine-Russia war latest: Trump warns Putin ‘we have a nuclear submarine off your shore’ after cruise missile test Venezuela suspends energy agreements with Trinidad after US warship arrives at island nation Nvidia readies $1.2 billion Germany data center with Deutsche Telekom - Cryptopolitan Big Tech’s make-or-break week: AI spending meets the moment of truth | Saxo Google and NextEra to Restart Iowa’s Duane Arnold Nuclear Plant to Power AI Era Ex-UBS trader Tom Hayes sues bank for $400M after conviction overturned - InvestmentNews UBS Moves to Go Nationwide in the US UK to stop disclosing identity of stock market short sellers, FT reports Amazon to Lay Off Up to 30,000 Corporate Workers - WSJ ''' Leaked documents reveal the company’s robotics team plans to automate 75% of operations potentially replacing 600,000 warehouse workers by 2033''' strewth At some point, some may start to worry.. as long as markets make new highs it's all good, no-one cares about job cuts.. StockMarket.News on X: "Some of the biggest job cuts announced in recent months. • Amazon is cutting up to 30,000 corporate jobs. • Accenture is laying off 11,000 employees. • Target is cutting about 1,000 jobs. • General Motors let go of 200 salaried workers. • Rivian is eliminating 600 jobs. https://t.co/LA8nqc4CBe " / X Arnaud Bertrand on X: "Interesting numbers on Nexperia: their chips are used by half Europe's auto companies, 86% of medical device companies and almost all (95%) the mechanical engineering sector. I thought the main impact from their disruption was the auto sector but it's even far broader than this. https://t.co/XjxFRJ15g5 " / X The Kobeissi Letter on X: "The decline in the Fed’s balance sheet has been historic: The Fed’s total assets as a % of nominal GDP have fallen to 21.6%, the lowest since Q4 2020. This also matches the level seen in Q3 2013 during the Fed’s 3rd QE program. The Fed now has the lowest Asset-to-GDP ratio https://t.co/3mqnRTCnah " / X Eric Yeung 👍🚀🌕 on X: "The Financial Times (FT) has finally admitted reality. It is obvious that “controlled decoupling” is going to happen between the U.S. empire and the BRICS+. Physical #Gold will take center stage as a Tier-1 international collateral alongside U.S. Treasury Bills, Notes, and" / X

France just officially proposed global taxation for the National Budget of 2026 >>> clearly a risk going forward in many countries Markets : Chicago  Fed latest survey of economic conditions, hiring expectations for next year have tumbled and are at lowest since depths of pandemic  (thread and chart), HF's reach $5trn in AUM, Banks led by JPMorgan and MUFG are preparing a record $38 billion debt sale for Oracle-linked data centers, the largest AI infrastructure deal to hit the market, EU leaders stall EUR140bn UKR loan using frozen russian assets, PM Takaichi vows to boost defence budget >>> Eq Futures held gains, shy of ATH's, buoyed by news that Trump and Xi Jinping will meet next Thursday on the sidelines of APEC.. Geopolitics : It looks like both the Russians and Ukrainians are ready to fight until one’s complete peril, bit scary really, Putin not happy with Trump clearly, Venezuela risk also on the increase #warondrugs , and Israel/gaza still in background.. Trump has pardoned Binance founder Changpeng Zhao, whose crypto exchange has been boosting the Trump family’s own crypto venture, WSJ reports, grifters will be grifters....Trump terminates trade talks with Canada Hot momentum stocks : '''the cost of money dictates the value of future dreams and thematic ideas/stocks''' , take OKLO or a Rigetti in the quantum sector, both are LONG duration assets, companies that will most likely be transformational, ok, but they still do NOT generate cash... so when financial conditions tighten, markets required higher returns for this risk (and vice versa..) , and market starts discounting those cash flows that are still years ahead, with a harder view/price.. just about the assumption of for ever liqudiity changes and impact those stocks, greatly and quickly.. Putin directs drills of Russian nuclear forces as his summit with Trump is put on hold Ukraine never uses American weapons to strike distant targets in Russia — Zelensky Trump accelerates tensions with Venezuela — and risks a longer, messier crisis Trump pardons convicted Binance crypto exec Changpeng Zhao PM Takaichi vows to boost defence budget and Japan September inflation edges higher for first time since May Trump cuts off trade talks with Canada over Reagan tariff ad How Belgium’s De Wever derailed the EU’s ‘insane’ €140B Ukraine loan plan – POLITICO Liz Ann Sonders on X: "Per ⁦@ChicagoFed⁩ latest survey of economic conditions, hiring expectations for next year have tumbled and are at lowest since depths of pandemic https://t.co/GVnnua7whP " / X Chicago is a good view of the real economy manuf, logistics, small firms that are all tied to supply chains, (big techs dont care)..tighter conditions, shifting consumer habits, smaller firms feel the squeeze, suddenly they freeze hiring as costs go higher, and clients go quiet.. if wage growth cool next, the FED will he happy about inflation US weekly jobless claims increase, more people collecting unemployment checks, economists estimate | Reuters Quantum computing firms might be Trump's next target for U.S. stake Tommy Vietor on X: "Binance willfully failed to report transactions on its platform by Al Qaeda, ISIS, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. But then Trump's crypto company made a multi-billion dollar deal in partnership with Binance, so Trump gave the founder a pardon. Shockingly brazen corruption. https://t.co/3ztXUvrEvL " / X Shocking really.. CN Wire on X: "🇨🇳🇺🇸Hopes for Xi-Trump summit dampened by tough Beijing moves, rising tension: Comment Just a month after U.S. President Donald Trump hailed "progress" in talks with China, the two nations are scrambling to salvage a planned summit of their leaders, now just a week away, trading https://t.co/6MEdgxrIIt " / X Bankrupt Telecom Business Accused of Fraud in Receivables Financing - WSJ YouGov on X: "What tax reforms do Britons say they would support in principle? -Wealth tax: 75% support -Mansion tax: 69% -Exit tax: 60% -Make council tax proportionate to home value: 56% -Pegging tax thresholds to inflation: 52% -Increase employer's NI for foreign workers: 50% -Require https://t.co/diQCWURv6b " / X At least UK retail sales were up last month ! Labour humiliation as Plaid Cymru win Welsh parliament by-election in former stronghold: latest Geely to launch 10 cars in UK by 2030, starting with £32k EX5 | Autocar Hedge fund assets hit a record $5 trillion. What's driving it? The have a sense of humor... ‘Quiet as a whisper’: German firm launches ad campaign after lift used in Louvre heist | Paris | The Guardian

Markets : Trump vs Xi and Putin, got to take it day by day, TACO etc, 'hot' momentum stocks hammered last few days, from quantum, URA, nuclear, rare earths, metals, and Data Center buildout drama is getting a wellness check.. too hot and overbought !... (pretty wild swings, moves, up an down like a yoyo! trigger happy 'market'..) .. Spanish debt to record highs, U.S debt surpasses $38 trillion, Brent jumped past $64 after the US slapped sanctions on Russia’s largest oil producers, Porsche reserve on EV, Roche raises guidance, TSLA (higher costs) and IBM (lower guidance) softer after earnings last night >>> quie volatile tape near highs, one sector or another's weakeness, credit worries, but so far nothing too dramatic really, that all said, if in doubt, buy a hedge or two #VIX , FXland deadly boring, CHF yields in neg territory and EURCHF 0.9250.. , market has little or no interest in FX, till it will have to. WSJ says the administration is negotiating equity stakes —minimum $10M per firm— (pretty small?..MORE insiders..classic..).. in IonQ, Rigetti, and D-Wave, led by Commerce using reallocated CHIPS R&D funds. It mirrors recent federal equity moves (e.g., Intel grants-to-shares), tying support to taxpayer upside Geopolitics : Trump says he’ll raise China’s Russian Oil purchases with Xi Trade : U.S considers broad software curbs on China-WH (seems totally nuts.. will be TACO'ed..) India unleashes Silver as Bank Collateral with 10:1 Gold-Silver Ratio, boosting Global Money Role China’s rare earth exports dropped -31% MoM in September, to 4,000 tonnes, the lowest since February BoE 's Bailey warned that the collapses of US firms First Brands and Tricolor could be "canaries in the coal mine" potentially signaling systemic risks >> we got PrimaLend yesterday filing for bankruptcy (auto lender) The US military has already been outsourcing its wars for decades to mercenary companies. Now it's privatizing the land, infrastructure, & assets it owns , selling them to private equity firms. The oligarchy is stripping the copper out of the proverbial wire of the US government!! Pete Hegseth gets rocked by CAREER DESTROYING news as "top military commanders" leak to the press that he has lost their "trust and respect" thanks to his "grandstanding" and ranting about "f*cking haircuts." The Silent Consolidation: How Fed Policy and the CRE Crash Are Strangling America’s Local Banks/Thread Why not I suppose...This looks like the new 21st centruy communism... The Kobeissi Letter on X: "The Trump Administration Now Owns: 1. Potential equity stake in IonQ, D-Wave, and Rigetti Quantum Computing 2. 10% equity stake in Intel, $INTC 3. 15% equity stake in MP Materials, $MP 4. 10% equity stake in Lithium Americas, $LAC 5. 10% equity stake in Trilogy Metals, $TMQ" / X India Makes Silver Bank Collateral with 10:1 Gold-Silver Ra | The Jerusalem Post EndGame Macro on X: "The drop in Switzerland’s 2 year yield back into negative territory is a clear signal about how markets see the global cycle turning. When short term government debt in a country like Switzerland trades below zero, it’s telling you investors are more worried about preserving https://t.co/rCi4ntRb3S " / X Treasury Sanctions Major Russian Oil Companies, Calls on Moscow to Immediately Agree to Ceasefire | U.S. Department of the Treasury US national debt tops $38 trillion for the first time; each American's share exceeds six figures - The Economic Times US army taps private equity groups to help fund $231b revamp Oil Jumps as Trump Steps Up Pressure on Russia With Sanctions Spanish Public Debt Grows at Rate of 4.7% and Sets Historical Record: €1.699 Trillion | The Corner Tokyo stocks fall in morning amid US-China trade tensions - The Mainichi Parliament stalls EU’s first effort to simplify rules for business – POLITICO Apple approaches $4 trillion market cap after iPhone 17 debut Roche raises guidance even after weak dollar weighs on sales Porsche shares slide after EV launch delay and altered profit outlook Q3 earnings: Wall Street just put Tesla in drive-assist mode IBM Q3 2025 earnings report Oklo stock sinks 25% as nuclear dream meets harsh reality The Kobeissi Letter on X: "BREAKING: China’s rare earth exports dropped -31% MoM in September, to 4,000 tonnes, the lowest since February. This marks the 3rd consecutive monthly decline. YTD exports have risen +13% YoY, but the data does not yet cover China’s newly expanded export controls introduced https://t.co/StfCugVqlM " / X EndGame Macro on X: "The Silent Consolidation: How Fed Policy and the CRE Crash Are Strangling America’s Local Banks The tightening pressure small and regional banks are facing today is the delayed consequence of deliberate policy choices made during and after the pandemic. The Fed controls reserves https://t.co/nYPyEJlTfM " / X

Germany’s banks democratize private equity for retail clients, similar moves in the U.S this feels so late cycle.. Markets : Gold, talked about it oftenenough, was ''overbought short-term... ''still'' under owned long-term'' , so here we are a better opportunity long-term (other metals too..).., Trump signals meeting with Xi isn’t guaranteed  ( will any of them blink first or it goes all wrong after Nov 1st deadline? china got the upper hand on rare earths, and won't fold on national pride..Trump pushed again on 155% tariffs..1st Nov..), UK inflation holds steady, JPN's new PM preparing large economic stimulus to tackle inflation, JLR hack 'is costliest cyber attack in UK history', BoE “private credit boom and the subprime debt crisis” parallels (early but not wrong..) >>> overall few cracks appearing, precious metal selloff (largest in longtime- TOUGH back to where we were 1 week ago..), BTC and crypto struggling, private equity, credit issues popping out, Equity indexes on hgihs but underneath doesn't look all that healthy, consumers struggling with higher prices and global de-globalization, onshoring etc and higher costs.. things can swing quickly in Q4, beware nasty sharp pullbacks in owned positions.. never hurts to have a hedge on in Oct-Dec time #tighter liquidity conditions underneath Geopolitics : Trump said he doesn’t want “a wasted meeting” with Vladimir Putin . European nations and Ukraine are said to be drafting a 12-point plan to end the war along current battle lines, crude a little higher (reserve built up), its on, off, on, ... Trade : India to cut Russian oil purchases, U.S. to slash tariffs as they near trade deal Trump administration plans new probe into global drug pricing, FT reports ASMZN is aiming to replace 600K U.S. jobs with robots by 2033 US pushing Private Equity onto Pensioners & now German Banks dumping on Retail, this feels so late cycle.. Oil rises in early Asian trade, buoyed by the U.S. Energy Department’s plan announced Tuesday to buy 1 million barrels for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. (WSJ) GOLD ..overall long-term factors supporting gold will remain , CB demand, fiscal expansion, diversification needs from investors, stay valid long-term, let alone USD downside eventually, low yields Why Europe is building a $11bn New Tunnel through The Alps / Video Trump threatens China with 155% tariffs, hints at potential trade deal with Xi Jinping - US News | The Financial Express Exclusive: Japan's new PM is preparing large economic stimulus to tackle inflation, sources say | Reuters This is SO late cycle .. German retail banks pitch private equity funds to small-scale investors | Business Post Rare earths: China responds to U.S.-Australia critical minerals deal '''overbought short-term, uinder owned long-term''... so here we are now Gold, silver extend rout after massive sell-off as rally loses shine | The Straits Times Gold and Silver reset What it means for long-term investors in miners | Saxo Bloomberg on X: "The Bank of England warned of parallels between the $1.7 trillion private credit boom and the subprime debt crisis, as UK officials confirmed plans to subject the market to stress tests https://t.co/6CC8yeNNZo " / X India, U.S. near trade deal with major tariff cuts, reduced Russian oil purchases OpenAI Unveils AI Browser 'ChatGPT Atlas' To Compete With Google Netflix grows revenue 17% in Q3 as ads gain ground Amazon Memos Point To Robot Takeover — 600,000 Jobs Could Vanish (UPDATED) Novo Nordisk's top investor seizes board control in weight-loss drug battle VW says production pauses planned, denies chip crunch as reason | Reuters JLR hack 'is costliest cyber attack in UK history' Brenner Tunnel - 11 minutes video - pretty impressive facts ! Why Europe Is Building A $11 BILLION New Tunnel Through The Alps EndGame Macro on X: "Plugging the New Money into the Old Core In plain English, Waller just said the Fed wants crypto born payment tech (stablecoins, tokenization, smart contracts) inside the U.S. payments tent. He floated a payment account, basically a skinny version of a Fed master account with" / X

“A group of banks including JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Goldman Sachs is struggling to put together a $20 billion loan to Argentina without leaving themselves on the hook to the virtually bankrupt South American country.”.. not so fast ! Markets :   The bond market is now pricing in a 100% probability of a Fed rate cut at the last 2 FOMC meetings this year (Oct 29 & Dec 10), bringing the Fed Funds Rate down to 3.50-3.75%, leveraged ETF growth going parabolic, The Rare Earth reset and how Trump’s Australia deal rewires the Mineral Map and NO supply issues won't sorted by neyt year, contrary to what Trump sayid..(THREAD) , JPN has a new PM #JPY weaker, ''The AIbubble is a rational bubble'' >>> AI, BTC, gold (price action yesterday pretty clear again..), credit, all up intandem, add debasment , all lifts real assets' values.. Trade : Trump expects Taiwan to be on the agenda when he meets with Xi Jinping next week. He predicted the US and China will have a “great trade deal.” Trump said he's secured $20 TRILLION in investments in America. His fake number has increased by $2 trillion just since last Thursday!...The entire US GDP is $30 trillion... Nvidia is out of chips in China. CEO Jensen Huang says the company has gone from 95% market share to zero as export rules and retaliation erase one of its biggest markets and redefine Amazon said all cloud services have been restored after a 15-hour outage The U.S Fiscal Year 2025 deficit was $1.8 trillion Bank of America Warns of Forced Stocks Selling If Credit Problems Persist , best stop this credit issue fast then! (like last friday with a trade dealwith china..) U.S : Home Sellers now outnumber Buyers by more than 500,000, the largest gap ever recorded The AI bubble is a 'rational bubble', says Mohamed El-Erian Japan's parliament elects Sanae Takaichi as nation's first female prime minister Trump Proceeds With Some Shutdown Layoffs After Court Freeze (1) BofA warns of forced stocks selling if credit problems persist - InvestmentNews Nick Timiraos on X: "“A group of banks including JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Goldman Sachs is struggling to put together a $20 billion loan to Argentina without leaving themselves on the hook to the virtually bankrupt South American country.” https://t.co/yT0u3uE4kn  “The U.S. facilities are" / X China is well positioned for a trade showdown with Trump The study found that, all told, nearly 700 drugs used in the US depend on ingredients that are solely produced in China EndGame Macro on X: "The Rare Earth Reset And How Trump’s Australia Deal Rewires the Mineral Map The rare earth agreement President Trump just signed with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is about control over the industrial arteries of the 21st century. Rare earth elements power https://t.co/Yt04wO00Cx " / X #debt It's probably fine...   The Kobeissi Letter on X: "The US debt crisis is intensifying: Total US debt reached a record $98.8 trillion in Q2 2025, equal to 324% of GDP. Federal government debt rose to $35.6 trillion in Q2, but the most recent data shows it has reached $37.5 trillion, or 123% of GDP. Nonfinancial corporate debt https://t.co/ZVR48zKjJI " / X Good olde Brexit ..   Farrukh on X: "Left: Rachel Reeves reepatedly said that the Labour will not take us back into the EU, the Single Market or even a Customs Union and that Labour will make Brexit work Right: Labour can't make Brexit work because any version of Brexit causes long term damage to the UK economy https://t.co/UN4tZvZfEJ " / X AWS outage sweeps across internet sites and services Jensen Huang says Nvidia’s China business is down to 'zero' Apple iPhone 17 Pro Max - Review 2025 - PCMag UK

Japan set for new coalition, as Takaichi set to become PM #JPY Markets : no credit worries yet then, markets rebound as Trump contains China chaos on Friday, more TACO action on Friday , cold war, Ai race, US rare earth trade war with China (dependency, big picture not priced in, not even close..), you have to wonder what this will do to capital markets to have 40+ years of trade politices that benefited the US dominance, peace and globalisation, what will it do if trade policies fully reverse..?? Brexit impact on UK economy 'negative for foreseeable future' BoE's Bailey, Larry Allisson's bragging on private policy ! , Swiss government fears wealth exodus with inheritance tax hike, U.S. Credit Spreads drop to lowest level since 1998 (what credit scare?..amazing really), BYD's new manufacturing hub in Zhengzhou is the size of the US city of San Francisco.. Geopolitics : Trump urged Zelensky to accept Russia’s terms for ending its war in a volatile White House meeting on Friday, warning Putin said he would “destroy” Ukraine if it did not agree. The meeting was a “shouting match”, with Trump “cursing all the time.”.., Trump, up and down as usual, on Ukraine-Russia, hard to tell what was really said !! , S&P cuts France's credit rating due to the country's unsustainable debt trajectory Trade : Even IKEA is raising prices in this economy, Trump says US will increase tariffs on Colombia as drug trade feud escalates, The US economy is so insanely financialized that it has more private equity funds (19,000) than McDonald's (14,000) #GOLD Gold’s breakout is a macro story driven by fiscal dominance , de-dollarization, debasement, inflation and global central bank demand — and why Bitcoin isn’t the hedge many think / Thread, video - Gold now accounts for over 20 % of global central bank reserves, the highest share we've seen in nearly three decades, but you need a long-term chart to realize it was 40% in the 1980's (FT chart available on request) #XAUUSD   India’s largest precious metals refinery has RUN OUT of silver STOCK for the FIRST TIME in HISTORY — maybe just down to Diwali, let's see... AI growth now depends on sovereign control of infrastructure, not just software innovation LDP's Takaichi set to become PM as Japan Innovation agrees to coalition. Diet to pick first female prime minister on Tuesday but minority rule may continue France's borrowing costs rise after Fitch downgrade Renewed fighting tests Gaza ceasefire and Israel briefly halts aid Ukraine-Russia war latest: Trump warns Zelensky to accept Putin’s terms or be ‘destroyed’ The Likely Consequences of a US War on Venezuela - CounterPunch.org NEXTA on X: "Trump defends himself: Donbas was never offered to Russia Donald Trump said that during his talks with Volodymyr Zelensky, the idea of handing over Donbas to Russia was “never discussed.” According to him, the talks were only about freezing hostilities along the current front https://t.co/B2095yEVvl " / X Trump tells Zelensky to give up Ukrainian land as White House meeting descends into 'shouting match' Trump Calms China Fears, Bitcoin and Ethereum Rebound Argentine FX traders estimate US Treasury sold over $200 million | Buenos Aires Times Investors cannot discount China's edge in rare earth metals – The Armchair Trader Japan set for new coalition and first woman PM China removes top trade negotiator from former WTO post - CNBC TV18 The AI–infrastructure connection at the heart of global growth - Financial Times - Partner Content by Wellington Captionizer on X: "Oh my, did public AI just jump the shark? Larry openly bragged that every bit of our personal “private” data from any Oracle powered organization, has been unknowingly accessed, scraped, and sprayed across the public LLM domains! Watch till the end, this is absolutely insane. https://t.co/xEqfYSrQAh " / X Theft of privacy ! not even hiding it, totally normal practice bascially, wont' be stopped, Oracle admits they are part ofit, that is the US exceptionalism and Ai tech dominance ... he said it out loud ''' Larry openly bragged that every bit of our personal “private” data from any Oracle powered organization, has been unknowingly accessed, scraped, and sprayed across the public LLM domains!''' Trump says China tariffs he's threatened aren't 'sustainable' Swiss government fears wealth exodus with inheritance tax hike - SWI swissinfo.ch If any doubt ... Brexit impact on UK economy 'negative for foreseeable future', Bank of England chief says | UK News | Sky News Farrukh on X: "ITV news cover Andrew Bailey pointing out that Brexit is bad for the UK's economic growth Journalist, "Brexit, which dominated our politics for so many years has almost become a bit like a curse word for some of the parties" "Just really afraid to even talk about it" "Even https://t.co/RlH3NLbVL3 " / X Gold’s Perfect Storm Is Here Video, nice macro stuff Ole S Hansen on X: "A major #gold driver: China’s four-year property slump showed no sign of easing, with home prices falling more sharply in September despite fresh stimulus efforts by major cities to stabilise the market. The prolonged real estate weakness continues to sap confidence and is one of" / X Warren Buffett's master class on the problem with gold Ben Norton on X: "The US economy is so insanely financialized that it has more private equity funds (19,000) than McDonald's (14,000). This is because the US economy is not based on innovation, and certainly not manufacturing; it's based on parasitic financial rent-seeking https://t.co/1jToYELYjI https://t.co/WvE3Sd7KZ5 " / X IKEA raises U.S. prices as new furniture tariffs hit imports Nestlé to cut thousands of jobs in next two years - SWI swissinfo.ch

Global money supply through the roof, Global debt up $20trn in H1 2025..!!.., hard to make a case that the like of GOLD is in a bubble, while this goes on... Markets : A CREDIT move yesterday, ''leverage loans' risk, often discussed but ignored for too long, banks tap SRF, VIX up, all eyeing the regional banks, Jefferies, #KRE !... a perfect storm with rest estate loans, delinquencies on highs, $1trn CRE loans etc !! ... Nestlé cuts 6% of workforce (white collar jobs), Hedge Funds in the Cayman Islands are forced buyers of UST - but counted as “Foreign buyers” to fool US equity & bond holders (Thread), RRP Fed'sreverse repo down to 4.1trn (apr 2021 low) and bank reserves down to $3trn (keep an eye on it, market liquidity appears tobe at critical point (Thread), Morgan Stanley forecasts that copper production will fall short of demand by 590,000 tons next year, the biggest supply deficit since 2004 >>> credit moves, tend tofavour #JPY #CHF, OVERALL USDollar is softer, EURUSD back 1.17+, while precious metals are roaring up, what else.. Trade : Swiss government slashes growth outlook as Trump tariffs put ‘heavy burden’ on economy, India has already cut Russian oil imports by 50 percent-White House, Geopolitics : Venezuela's president pleads for peace after Trump sends in CIA, Donald Trump says he will meet Vladimir Putin in Budapest. US president plans further talks with Russia’s leader on ending war in Ukraine ''within 2 weeks'' (FT) , China blames U.S. for global panic over rare earths controls Trump can 'give $40bn to his mates n Argentina (after Trump and Co made sure about having investments there..), to support their own camp without congress approval (pretty amazing.. what law approved this ?...) >>> in other words it's not a bail out for Argentina, it's a bailout for Trump's well connected FM's, his own family investments and the mega wealthy friends who invested out there UK : Energy bosses have just told Parliament that EVEN IF gas prices halved by 2030, the soaring policy costs of renewables would mean bills go UP PayPal’s crypto partner mints a whopping $300 trillion worth of stablecoins in ‘technical error’...totally bonkers Investors warn on leveraged loan risks after First Brands collapse. Rapid growth of $2tn market has led to hastily done deals and hurried due diligence, say fund managers. (FT) Wall Street credit worries intensify after Dimon's 'cockroach' warning Wall Street Jolted as Bank Woes Stir Credit Angst: Markets Wrap - SWI swissinfo.ch US banks tap Fed repo facility as overnight rates climb, signaling funding strain | Reuters China blames U.S. for panic over rare earths controls Switzerland slashes GDP forecast as Trump's tariffs weigh on economy Oil Rises as Trump Says India Will Stop Buying Russian Supply Trump Says Putin War Summit Will Happen in ‘Two Weeks or So’ The Kobeissi Letter on X: "BREAKING: Demand for the Fed’s Reverse Repo (RRP) facility has fallen to $4.1 billion, the lowest since April 2021. RRP usage, one of the financial system’s key excess liquidity metrics, has declined -$2.5 trillion since its December 2022 peak. Meanwhile, bank reserves at the https://t.co/6IDknvHM7w " / X Energy bills are 'going to be 20% higher' despite 'prices halving' as Britons pay extra £300 a year Must watch Claire Coutinho on X: "An absolute must watch. Energy bosses have just told Parliament that EVEN IF gas prices halved by 2030, the soaring policy costs of renewables would mean bills go UP. Ed Miliband’s plan means more grid, more expensive renewable subsidies, more paying wind farms to turn off. https://t.co/GHGJ64kLUW " / X Samantha LaDuc on X: "Hedge Funds in the Cayman Islands are forced buyers of UST - but counted as “Foreign buyers” to fool US equity & bond holders. It’s one big shell game with tether/stablecoins - run by the biggest cons in the biz: BlackRock & Cantor" / X Is the AI stock boom a bubble? What Wall Street analysts say Is the AI boom a bubble? What the CEOs of OpenAI, Nvidia, and more say PayPal's crypto partner mints 300 trillion stablecoins in 'technical error' Venezuela's president pleads for peace after Trump sends in CIA | World News | Sky News China and North Korea economically taking over Eastern Russia - Ukraine's intelligence | RBC-Ukraine China and North Korea are gradually taking over the eastern regions of Russia economically. Thus, Russia is increasingly paying off its allies in the war against Ukraine with its own territories - big if true, not fully confirmed by independent sources.. .'''The narrative is rooted in real trends of rising Chinese and North Korean influence in Russia’s Far East but exaggerated in claims of territorial transfers. No verified evidence supports formal Russian territory being “paid off” to allies; the reality is increased economic, demographic, and labor presence by China and North Korea in the region, reflecting Russia’s current vulnerabilities and strategic realignment''' China, India, and North Korea back Russia as changing global order takes shape - Atlantic Council Nestle 3Q earnings; announces 16,000 job cuts Fire a load of white collar jobs, something Nestle was never really known for... surprise markets and your stock is up nearly 10pct The Kobeissi Letter on X: "The elephant in the room: Confidence in fiat currencies has collapsed. As a result, absolutely no one wants cash right now. In fact, cash allocation for institutional investors is down to 3.8%, the lowest percentage in 12 years. The Fed will soon lose its independence, rate" / X