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Iran talks shaky .. : Vance pulled out of scheduled Switzerland negotiations, with the Swiss foreign ministry confirming the talks would not proceed, while Israeli strikes on southern Lebanon continued overnight. Markets : JPY back on intervention watch, FED's hawkishness pushes USD higher as you would expect, USDCHF breaking UP.. #EURCHF #GBPCHF with it and #JPYCHF (SNB can intervene more, technically looking good med-term perspective, JPYCHF PPP is far far away like 30% at a minimum as per most investment banks, SNB balance-sheet is 200bn smaller than in 2022 so room to intervene if they want to - PLEASE ASK, if you need more details on this!!), crude back up a bit towards $80 on Iran talks 'struggling', PALL back to attractive 'buy' levels after sell-off from Q1!, Ukraine left the G7 with Trump backing oil sanctions on Russia instead of leaning on Kyiv. Europe helps Trump stabilize his Iran deal and clear mines from the Strait of Hormuz. This is transactional diplomacy UK's Burnham says Labour has final chance to change after Makerfield by-election win for UK markets ! .. only one way Welfare spending needs to be brought under control Iran US Israel war Live Updates: Trump Optimistic on Ceasefire On All Fronts Even As IDF Continues Striking Lebanon | Times Now U.S.-Iran accord hits early snag after Swiss talks fail to proceed as planned Lebanon state media says 16 killed by Israeli strikes Trump offers Ukraine olive branch at G7 — with a price tag – POLITICO G7 leaders arrived in France expecting a fight over Iran, Ukraine and the next NATO summit. They left more upbeat after Trump signaled readiness to increase pressure on Putin and keep working with allies Gulf airlines get back to business as flights near pre-war levels | Reuters Macro Alpha on X: "🚨 The ultimate export-driven free-trade engine of the world is officially capitulating. Berlin floating an EU version of Section 301 tariffs against China is the death knell for the post-2000 supply chain consensus. They are bleeding out from a €100bn bilateral trade deficit https://t.co/0TFmQ1sxFg" / X This is a violent, structural regime change in global MACRO. Tariffs mean permanently higher friction costs, structurally higher INFLATION floors, and a massive repricing of European margin structures. SPCX’s next big raise — SpaceX reportedly readies $20B bond offering to refinance debt Musk's financial engineering, but hey why not do it when you can ! EU set to remove barriers to banks' cross-border capital flows, FT reports Japan core inflation holds steady in May, matching expectations despite energy price concerns Andy Burnham says his Makerfield by-election win could be turning point Burnham brings in top economists before possible leadership run | Andy Burnham | The Guardian Robert Peston on X: "In May’s local elections, Labour’s implied vote share was 24.3% and Reform’s was more than 50%. Last night Labour’s Andy Burnham received about 55% of the vote, a full 20 percentage points more than Reform’s Robert Kenyon. So Burnham returned what looked like a safe Reform" / X Palladium Price Live: Analysis & Price Trends | GOLDINVEST

Iran 'final update' : The U.S. and Iran have remotely signed their memorandum of understanding to end the war and open the Strait of Hormuz, and the agreement is now in effect, two U.S. officials told Axios, so no Burgenstock ? damn.. Markets : Kevin Warsh’s first Fed meeting sees rates hold steady and makes outright promise to deliver price stability—but don’t expect many details on when!, just 100 words statement, forward guidance is over (Alleluya.. ! ), FX super quiet 'USD slightly higher', USDJPY at or near previous 'intervention levels', equity had a mini close lower, higher again overnight, HSI notably struggling through, Crude $75 welcome development for many clearly (where are all those experts calling for $150 or more..) Warsh said “Persistently high prices are a burden for the American people. But the recent past need not be prologue” and “Members of the FOMC are unambiguous and unanimous: this committee will deliver price stability”, he ended the meeting with ''"I can't give you any guidance on what we're going to do next."... deal with it..>>> Underpinning his emphasis on accountability, his delivery was noticeably more open, engaging, concise, and honest. US, Iran sign deal ahead of Friday meeting Crunching the numbers on Warsh’s lil’ statement statement Ole S Hansen on X: "Crude tumbles as Hormuz reopening nears; gold hit by Fed, lifted by Trump #CrudeOil prices fell to fresh lows after Wednesday’s rebound proved short-lived, with markets continuing to price in a rapid normalization of supply following President Trump's signing of the US-Iran" / X US SEC Innovation Exemption Could Open US Equity Markets to Tokenized Stock Trading US Crude Oil, Gasoline Inventories Still Falling: EIA | OilPrice.com Reform leader Nigel Farage breaking UK company law | The National Magyar Purges Orbán-Era Spy Chiefs, Names Russia Hybrid Warfare Expert - VSquare.org „20 Minuten“ lanciert Arbeiten in Flipflops: Are We Nuts? – Inside Paradeplatz Exclusive: UK in advanced talks with Nissan over Sunderland plant support, sources say | Reuters ‘I’m the boss’: Trump strides into G7 session, leaders demand Lebanon ceasefire | News24 Anthropic’s Dario Amodei Urged AI Unity at G7, Even as US Banned His Models

Iran update : The US and Iran are preparing to sign an interim peace deal which would dole out broad financial incentives to Iran, including the right to immediately sell oil, tap a $300 billion development fund and eventually unlock frozen assets, Tehran threatened Israel with a “harsh response” if it doesn’t stop its military campaign in Lebanon, state-run IRIB reported, anyhow, the Iran deal will be signed on Friday at the beautiful Burgenstock ! Markets : Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting, it'll be Very interesting to see if any big changes (drop the dots !), unchanged, easing bias to be left out finally, and watch inflation expectations though !, JPN exports higher on weaker #JPY, SPACEX is rallying because index funds need it and there is only a 4% float so it has to rally (in short-term at least), on $3trn valuations that's 200x sales on about $20bn annual revenues.. >>> FOMC, be open minded, crude prices gives him optionality, markets look a little overcooked on SPACEX momentum, that being said.. nothing much seems to worry them these days.. specially not lower crude prices (DOW made new highs..) Europe’s Defense Renaissance and America’s Missed Signal, Ukraine’s Wartime Innovation Is a Once in a Century Industrial Catalyst The Strategic Petroleum Reserve has just fallen to its lowest level since August 1983- 340.3mb. That's a 42 yr low. No matter where you stand politically, it's a remarkable statistic: America's emergency oil stockpile hasn't been this depleted since the Reagan era, let's hope there is no renewed 'Iran related pressure' France ends the contract between Palantir and DGSI (domestic intelligence agency). Palantir will be replaced by ChapsVision. The contract had previously been renewed several times for lack of alternative. Germany also moved to ChapsVision earlier this year #PLTR Meloni and Trump speak on sidelines of G7 summit after public spat A Strategic Blunder of Epic Proportion | RealClearDefense The Strategic Consequence The United States is not losing influence in Europe because of policy disagreements. It is losing because Europe is building a defense industrial model that is faster, cheaper, more adaptive, and increasingly independent. Ukraine is the catalyst. Europe is the beneficiary. And unless Washington recalibrates, America will be the strategic loser. US Set to Offer Iran Broad Financial Gains in Peace Deal Exclusive | The Trump-Iran Deal Allows Tehran to Immediately Sell Oil - WSJ SpaceX to Acquire Cursor in $60B Stock Deal, Deepening Elon Musk’s AI Empire The deal for Cursor, the AI coding tool, is all stock. No cash. SpaceX issues shares, hands them over, done, great when you can do this! Months before the IPO, SpaceX took $17.5 billion of old junk debt from xAI and X and parked it on its own balance sheet through a $20 billion bridge loan.The terms? Repaid within six months of listing. So part of the $75 billion that retail and index funds just handed over is already spoken for. Not for Mars. Not for rockets. To clear debts piling up at Elon's other companies. Did I just buy buy the rocket ship, or the loans, best financial engineering ever, you've got to admit.. OKAY..its a near $3trn company now so who cares about $20bn... agreed France replaces Palantir in intelligence systems with local firm ChapsVision, PM says – Firstpost Japan May exports grow at fastest pace in over three years, beating estimates China makes new push to take yuan global, vows vigilance on financial risks - Nikkei Asia Streeting says he would be prepared to trigger leadership contest as early as next week Of course he would.. doing Burnham a favour to get potentially back wiht the new PM.. Good news UK inflation holds steady at 2.8% in May BMW lowers profit outlook due to China downturn, Iran war

Iran update : The US is at odds with European allies, which are skeptical about Donald Trump’s promise that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen by Friday. Trump will release the text of the MOU on Friday, JD Vance told Fox News, Trump also secretly approved a Qatar-Iran cash deal >>> The markets celebrated the moment Hormuz reopened toll-free, but the agreement behind that headline may be far weaker than anyone wants to admit... Markets : so after all the experts said what they had to say...the world's largest ever oil supply disruption failed to create a major energy crisis..., Trump threatens 100% tariff on French wine over U.S tax issue, BoJ hikes and would you believe to the highest level since 1995 (JPY unch, JGB's softer again..), China retail sales down 0.6% YoY, The IEA said 2026 shock was worst than 1973, 1979 and 2022 together. And yet, the cost of oil, natural gas, electricity and coal never surpassed the previous peaks Carney: The new world order will be built from Europe. Canada is the most European of non-European countries, and we are transforming our cooperation with the EU ... In a more dangerous and divided world, Canada has chosen to build and work in partnership with Europe Crimea : A Sevastopol real estate agent says that property prices have already collapsed -40%, Russian leaving Boris and Farage should “hang their heads in shame” for the damage they caused to Britain by leading the campaign that saw it leave the EU Trump threatened to set a 100 percent tariff on French wine and champagne unless Paris removes a digital services tax on technology firms, The New York Post reported Monday China's gasoline demand just fell more than 20% in a single year. EVs are now 60%+ of all new car sales in China Kevin Warsh faces rate hike pressure at first FOMC meeting G7 summit: Ukraine and Iran head agenda Trump secretly approved Qatar-Iran cash deal This was a deliberate and conscious course of action by the US administration, which allowed its navy to turn a blind eye to the arrangement, in complete contradiction of its declared policy. The move was intended to ease the crisis in global energy markets and curb rising oil prices. The bombshell behind the deal: Trump's own CIA director doubts Iran will keep its word... CIA Director John Ratcliffe told Trump and senior officials that U.S. intelligence raised serious doubts about Iran's willingness to make the nuclear concessions the deal seeks. Mario Nawfal on X: "🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The markets celebrated the moment Hormuz reopened toll-free, but the agreement behind that headline may be far weaker than anyone wants to admit... The MOU that supposedly ended the standoff was reportedly signed without Israel or the Gulf states agreeing to the terms, https://t.co/A6SVZZWw2Q" / X Trump threatens 100% tariff on French wine over tax on US tech giants Apple, Amazon, Facebook - France 24 Chinese economy stalls with investment, consumption in big slump consumption and investment sinking...while Industrial Production increases which they then dump on RoW Australia central bank warns hikes are not off the table as it keeps rates steady at 4.35% Bank of Japan hikes rate to 31-year high Russian navy officers and their families reportedly fleeing Crimea A Sevastopol real estate agent says that property prices have already collapsed -40%. Strait of Hormuz shipping flow will take ‘weeks’ to resume after US-Iran deal, warns Mitsui OSK Lines CEO Jotaro Tamura Heseltine: It’s time to reverse Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage’s ‘heinous crime’ of Brexit | The Independent Mark Carney: Canadian prime minister begins two-day visit to Ireland

Iran final update ? : after 40 ''deals'', the real deal seems to have arrived, signature a the G7 maybe ?.. though Ben-Gvir seems to say the agreement does not bind Israel..some confusion still as to what was actually agreed..markets don't care !...The US and Iran said they have reached an interim accord to halt the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, paving the way for talks on Tehran’s nuclear program. Officials from both sides will meet in Switzerland on Friday to sign an agreement. No text has been released by either country, Shipowners remain wary of how the deal will pan out after months of false starts, with nearly 600 vessels primed for exit from the Persian Gulf, ''Trump got outplayed, no matter how you slice it, Iran in a stronger position, they will get billions from the US govt to end this absolutely disaster of U.S foreign policy.. and keep control of Hormuz, well played!'' Markets : Bank of America confirmed the shift, hyperscalers have doubled the non-dollar share of their bond funding to 30% of total issuance in 2026 (thread), U.S froze Anthropic's advances Ai models, markets rally hard on 'the Iran deal', FOMC expected to hold at Warsh's first meeting, drop the dot plot and probably a little hawkish are the expectations, PM's rally as yields drop, bonds rally on lower crude prices, 160+ USDJPY still though, a delayed reaction to lower oil prices and JPY rallies again ? Japan to rebuild 14 nuclear reactors by 2050 The FOMC meeting, retail sales data, Kroger earnings, and more to watch this week U.S. and Iran reach peace deal to end the Mideast war, with agreement set to be signed Friday Visioner on X: "🇺🇸🇮🇷🇨🇭 BIG | Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammed Bagher (the lead negotiator) and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi will travel to Geneva to sign the agreement alongside U.S. Vice President JD Vance. The meeting will mark the highest-level direct engagement between Tehran and https://t.co/EbjSVgokvb" / X , Ukraine is winning the drone war. Now it needs to win over Trump. Anthropic disables access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 to comply with government directive Milk Road AI on X: "This is WILD! Something very large is happening in global bond markets, and most people are completely missing it (Save this). The hyperscalers, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta have collectively committed $725 billion in capital expenditure for 2026 alone, up 77% from the https://t.co/hi61C2wgzh" / X UK Stock Market News: Big Yellow, Renewables Infrastructure, Frasers UK forces board sanctioned Russian shadow fleet oil tanker Keir Starmer poised to backtrack on electric vehicle targets Swiss voters reject proposal to cap population at ten million - SWI swissinfo.ch Madness Geneva closes most of border with France for G7 summit - SWI swissinfo.ch Helvetia-Baloise „killt“ nach Jobs auch Mieten – Inside Paradeplatz Daniel on X: "Kevin Warsh's view is clear: AI will eventually force interest rates lower because it will be highly deflationary. "AI is going to make almost everything cost less. We're at the front end of a productivity boom." The problem is that today's economy is telling a different story. https://t.co/ljZBEZ20nY" / X Japan to rebuild 14 nuclear reactors by 2050 | New Civil Engineer

SpaceX is expected begin trading on the Nasdaq today after raising $75 billion in the biggest-ever IPO and putting Elon Musk on the verge of becoming the first trillionaire. Shadow markets are pricing in a jump of at least 35% on its debut...bring it on ! Iran war updates : Trump was going to bomb the hell out of Iran, and on same day claimed the war is over, deal to be signed this weekend..Per Axios, Trump agreed that one option for resolving the enriched uranium standoff is down-blending the stockpile inside Iran under UN inspector supervision..Trump folding.. Markets : Stocks extended gains and oil slipped after Trump claimed, for the 28th time.. (amazing algo's love the news still), “we ended the war with Iran” and a deal may be signed as soon as this weekend. Global equity futures rose. The two sides agreed on an MoU, which still needs a final sign-off, to extend the truce for 60 days, ECB hiked as priced and expected. The UST Long Bond at or near 5% will be the tell going forward, as usual 10's UST finds some bond buyers above 4.5% yields., China's oil imports are COLLAPSING (thread) OpenAI weighs major pricing shake-up to counter Anthropic as both companies eye trillion-dollar IPO dreams: Report, and pricing war starting !.. The drop in nitrogen fertilizer prices ..!.. India has received offers for its latest urea tender at an average price of $530 per tonne, down ~44% from $947 per tonne in April China warns EU on new sanctions over Ukraine war, The EU needs to grasp a basic point: China is not a minor state waiting for lectures from Brussels... WSJ - Inside the White House Freakout Over the Epstein Files...The president’s top advisers gathered in a series of Situation Room meetings as they struggled to contain a scandal engulfing Donald Trump himself So Christine finally hiked from 2 to 2.25%, with headline inflation at 3.2%, major energy shock mentioned, that same ECB (and others) that saw inflation as transitory in 2022..., then they lowered 2026 and 2027's GDP forecasts by 0.1% to 0.8% and 1.2% respectively..not very consistent nor credible really, luckily many other CB's aren't either, FOMC and BoJ next week + SNB Biggest news so far this week ! The AI bubble bursting SoftBank tried to borrow $6B against its OpenAI stake — then shares plunged 9.7%. Is the AI boom running into reality? The banks don’t believe OpenAI is worth $850 bn then ? and thus other Ai valuation.. The same OpenAI lost $14 billion in 2026 (lost about 10bn last year)...which just filed for a $1 trillion IPO, looks totally normal ?.. SoftBank needed the loan to keep funding OpenAI., to fund the company they already own 13% of, with money borrowed against the stake they already own. Masayoshi Son previously lost $70 billion on WeWork, he called it, at some point, the most valuable company in the world.... can only guess that the banks remembered WeWork............ fascinating times that for sure! OpenAI weighs major pricing shake-up to counter Anthropic as both companies eye trillion-dollar IPO dreams: Report Prices coming DOWN ! ...after all that Capex spending on higher debt! ECB hikes interest rates for first time since 2023 as Iran war ramps up energy costs Trump says he has canceled strikes on Iran, signals move toward deal China warns EU on new sanctions over Ukraine war The EU needs to grasp a basic point: China is not a minor state waiting for lectures from Brussels. If Europe sanctions Chinese, Turkish, Indian or other firms for not following its Russia policy, it should not be surprised when Beijing hits back. Unilateral, extra‑legal sanctions are not “rules‑based order,” they are raw power politics. And China is not a soft target: its industrial base, market size and control over key supply chains mean any escalation will hurt both sides. Europe still behaves as if it runs the world economy. It doesn’t. If Brussels normalises sanctions, China can just as easily normalise counter‑measures. Do not pick a fight with the factory of the world and then complain when the factory starts stress‑testing your supply chain. Huge too, no wonder Trump is unhinged ... Inside Trump’s White House, the Epstein Files Caused a Freakout - The New York Times Collusion, breaking the law, evading subpoenas—it’s all in there: - Trump quashing the files - The VP, COS, DOJ, FBI, and others colluding in the Situation Room to stop their release and compliance - Officials lying to the public - Admin in-fighting and exits - Officials who appeared in front of Congress during this time UK.. plenty of troubles out there.. Channel Tunnel owner threatens legal action over UK’s tripling of business rates Keir Starmer faces fresh blow after resignations by Al Carns and John Healey over defence spending - live updates - BBC News Global Markets Investor on X: "⚠️China's oil imports are COLLAPSING: Chinese crude imports fell to 7.8 million barrels per day in May, the lowest since October 2017. This marks a decline of -3.8 million barrels per day, or -33%, from the 2025 average of ~11.6 million barrels per day. The drop reflects https://t.co/VLjYuHJpvZ" / X

Yes, the World cup kicks off today! Iran war updates : Oil tankers go dark to sneak more barrels through Hormuz (help explains relatively soft crude prices?), Tehran strikes ships in Hormuz, launches attacks on Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan after US assault U.S inflation hit 4.2%, a 3-year high. But strip out the oil war and core inflation actually cooled a little. This is-looks like a supply shock, not demand. The Fed cannot fix the Strait of Hormuz with rate hikes, though the longer crude prices stay high, the hardest it'll be to deal with inflation, add the K economy to it and it's a nightmare.. >>> "Simply put, the inflation of the Iran war will soon force the US (and by extension, much of the West) to choose between “save the currency” (let bond yields rise sharply with inflation, i.e., bond prices FALL sharply), breaking everything but the USD and gold) or “save the bond market” (print USD to cap UST yields to maintain nominal US government solvency, turbocharging the already accelerating and soon-to-be problematic inflation)." Markets : U.S markets fell as U.S CPI rose to a 3y high, Iran worries on the increase again and SpaceX pre IPO nerves tested, FX super quiet, although #CHF a little softer (200dma #EURCHF is around current levels 0.9230.. ), broadly speaking we expect SNB to be unchanged next week (economy soft, inflation near lows..nothing to do, see here..), and rest of the world likely to hike (ECB to hike today all about 'inflation forecast' going fwd, BoJ priced in, FOMC probably unch but hawkish), should keep CHF on soft side, #Oracle falls after hours on 'higher spending', more debt yet again!, which is slowly but surely being questioned across AI-Tech sector, SpaceX a clear 'sentiment' indicator for the whole sector, either way !, OpenAI considers drastic price cuts, anticipating war for users with Anthropic Bank of America told clients to take profits. Seven of the bank's ten bear market signposts have triggered ChatGPT getting worse, did you notice ? ChatGPT feels dumber than it used to. Your prompts that worked six months ago produce worse results now. The writing sounds flatter. The ideas sound safer >> You thought it was you. It is not you. Researchers at Oxford and Cambridge published a paper in Nature proving what is happening. They call it Model Collapse (Thread) Swiss National Bank expected to resist global rate-hike trend: Reuters poll | Euronews Bank of Japan governor Ueda hospitalised, will miss June meeting | Reuters Oracle’s stock slides after earnings, as the steep price of AI spooks investors OpenAI considers drastic price cuts, anticipating war for users with Anthropic Pimco Warns a Wave of Defaults Is Coming for Low-Quality Borrowers | Financial Post BofA warns investors to take profits as 70% of the bank's bear market signals flash red Oil tankers go dark to sneak more barrels through Hormuz | The Seattle Times US and Iran exchange strikes across Middle East for second day in a row Iran, US-Israel war LIVE updates: Tehran strikes ships in Hormuz, launches attacks on Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan after US assault - World News | The Financial Express Alex Finn on X: "AI subscriptions are dead Claude Fable 5 will only be on the Anthropic subscription until June 22nd. After that, you will need to pay for usage per token This will be the start of a much larger trend Frontier models will no longer be included in subs You’ll pay a fee and it" / X Nav Toor on X: "You have noticed it. ChatGPT feels dumber than it used to. Your prompts that worked six months ago produce worse results now. The writing sounds flatter. The ideas sound safer. The internet itself feels like it is shrinking. Every article reads the same. Every email sounds the https://t.co/hJHOMEnpEh" /

Central Bank update : pretty insane...46 of 68 global central banks are currently overshooting their inflation targets (Thread), Meanwhile, markets are pricing a 98% probability of a 25bps rate 'hike' from the ECB on June 11th and an 83% probability of a 25bps hike from the Bank of Japan on June 16th. The first FOMC meeting under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh follows on June 17th Markets : China factory gates hits 4y highs, SpaceX apparently 4x oversubscribed (so sell-off over ? ), interesting political move from Starmer in UK, There is an expected earnings boom in markets right now. But if you look under the hood a lot of it seems to be coming from unrealised gains in stakes of companies that are due for IPO (Thread), Dollar and yields continue to dictate PM's, gold’s direction >>> a strong CPI today will force ''market to reprice'' FED and look for a 'hawkish' FED meeting next week! South Koreans liquidate savings and insurance to Chase SK Hynix and Samsung rally Steve Eisman, the Big Short investor says he fully expects Musk to use the SpaceX IPO stock price to buy Tesla and merge both companies into one giant entity called X Exclusive-SpaceX IPO demand is approaching four times oversubscribed, source says Philip Pilkington on X: "There is an expected earnings boom in markets right now. But if you look under the hood a lot of it seems to be coming from unrealised gains in stakes of companies that are due for IPO. 📈📉 https://t.co/ogiClS4gNN" / X China's factory-gate inflation hits near 4-year high - RTHK Global Markets Investor on X: "‼️THIS IS INSANE: 46 of 68 global central banks are currently overshooting their inflation targets. The US is running +1.8 percentage points above its 2% target, and the Eurozone +1.2 percentage points above. Meanwhile, markets are pricing a 98% probability of a 25bps rate cut https://t.co/WpOLkm4h9M" / X US and Iran exchange strikes as ceasefire crumbles Iran war live: Tehran targets US forces in Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait | US-Israel war on Iran News | Al Jazeera #ETH Ethereum news: Tom Lee’s BitMine just slashed ETH buying by 74%, here’s what comes next Same as Saylor..Tom Lee's BitMine holds over 5,400,000 ETH, bought at an average near $3,476. With ETH below $1,800, that's roughly $8,900,000,000 in unrealized losses. ‘You can’t fly planes that are empty’: Airlines draw up cuts for ‘ugly’ winter South Koreans Liquidate Savings and Insurance to Chase SK Hynix and Samsung Rally South Koreans are cashing out their insurance policies and savings deposits to pile into the local stock rally. >>> Stuff like this makes you go 'Hummmm', the kind of things you see near overbought, overvalued markets SAXO update from Charu Investor QA Is the AI selloff a reset or a warning shot | Saxo A few key thoughts: This still looks more like a reset within a bull market than the start of a broader bear-market shift. The usual warning signs — recession stress, disorderly yields, extreme oil prices or a broad earnings collapse — are not clearly visible yet. The easy phase of the AI rally is likely over. The market has moved from rerating to proof, which means AI-linked companies now need to show clearer monetisation, earnings delivery, capex discipline and returns on infrastructure spend. This is not a uniform risk-off move yet. The pressure is concentrated in crowded AI and tech winners, while defensives, value areas and laggards are still finding buyers. That makes breadth and rotation important signals to watch. Macro is back in the driver’s seat. Strong US data, higher oil, Middle East uncertainty and renewed Fed hike pricing are making markets less willing to look through bad — or even just less-good — news. Gold vs Silver: Which is the best bet this summer? – The Armchair Trader Arnaud Bertrand on X: "This is extraordinarily rare. In fact, according to a key figure in the German business community (who is a dear friend of mine), it's unprecedented. An op-ed, two pages, centerpiece, in Germany’s most important economic newspaper (the Handelsblatt) that begs the German https://t.co/k7Uhv2HwaE" / X Keir Starmer is about to burn down the Labour Party - but Andy Burnham will get the blame Back me of you are fired.. fair enough, ministers can't have a foot in both camps..choose between loyalty to the government or support the next dude...., no double dealing, can't support Burnham if they are in government, and it will force Burnham to come with actual policies (rather than walk in on populist ideas that he is better).. fascinating Starmer may tell ministers to quit if they back Burnham - Breaking The News StockMarket.News on X: "The man who called the 2008 housing collapse just made a prediction about Elon Musk that is hard to ignore (Save this). Steve Eisman, the Big Short investor says he fully expects Musk to use the SpaceX IPO stock price to buy Tesla and merge both companies into one giant entity https://t.co/Y2plCdMv1y" / X

In the past, major technology companies typically bought back their own shares. “Now they are suddenly raising fresh equity and taking out loans on a massive scale,”...this IS a big change, which doesn't seem to bother Mr Market, so far anyway Iran updates : Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel will hold fire in Iran for now, vowing to respond with “great force” if Tehran strikes again. The PM said he told Trump that the Jewish state has a full right to self-defense. Oil edged lower, Markets : OpenAI files for IPO, stocks rebound + yet more talks of ceasefire in Iran and a deal, SpaceX’s IPO is well oversubscribed, people familiar said, Morningstar values it at $65, since the War began on Feb 27th, the S&P 500 (black) is up 7.34%. But the S&P 500 without AI stocks (blue) is effectively unchanged (ALL about AI-see thread), BoJ set to hike on 15th June (all priced now), Steve Eisman is not a SpaceX fan either, it'll be fun that's for sure ! will watch for a far on this one..it's overvalued and not prepared to pay for 'future' parabolic growth on AI.., AND BIG TECHS typically bought back their own shares for years, “Now they are suddenly raising fresh equity and taking out loans on a massive scale,” .. #KOSPI Analysts warn KOSPI could fall another 20% as foreign investors flee the country in the face of domestic and international inflation. In short, the country’s intentional manipulation of memory markets with Taiwan are risking destroying the global economy by record high inflation #Oil When the day comes, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will be extraordinary: restarting about 10,000 oil wells, pumping roughly 15% of the world’s production. When it happens, it would go quicker than many think: weeks, not months The Fight to Break China’s Rare-Earth Dominance Moves to a New Front in Brazil. Brazil holds the world’s second-largest reserves and wants to become a processor of critical minerals, but it refuses to choose sides between Washington and Beijing. (WSJ) NZZ : (couldn't agree more, BEWARE!!..)... In the past, major technology companies typically bought back their own shares. “Now they are suddenly raising fresh equity and taking out loans on a massive scale,”...When companies like OpenAI, Anthropic, or SpaceX raise hundreds of billions of dollars in capital through their IPOs, this drains even more liquidity from the rest of the stock market. At the same time, the U.S. government is stimulating the economy through massive new borrowing and the issuance of government bonds with very short maturities, and is also obtaining the necessary liquidity for this on the financial markets. In the next twelve to eighteen months, we’re also facing a so-called “debt wall”: $80 trillion in loans that companies and governments took out at near-zero interest rates during the pandemic now need to be refinanced. “That’s almost twice as much as in normal times and requires additional liquidity,” Trump demands Israel and Iran stand down as new hostilities threaten ceasefire - AOL Analysts Warn: “KOSPI Could Fall as Low as 6,000” - Businesskorea Jim Bianco on X: "Since the War began on Feb 27th, the S&P 500 (black) is up 7.34%. But the S&P 500 without AI stocks (blue) is effectively unchanged. So, the entire S&P 500 Index rally since February has been driven by AI stocks. But look at what happened on Friday, June 5th! The S&P 500 was https://t.co/VYEtOCxWho" / X Why We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued | Morningstar 'The Big Short' investor Steve Eisman says he's not a fan of SpaceX's IPO due to concerns about its AI business Commodities weekly Energy retreat masks deeper supply concerns as metals shine | Saxo Brace for a Flood of Oil as Soon as the Strait of Hormuz Reopens - Bloomberg China Keeps Buying Gold - Tavi Costa Davos Deadlock: Trump Team, EU, and PLATFORM Hold Talks – Why US Citizens Remain Locked Out | The Guardian Odds of Reform winning by-election 'significantly worse' after Rob Kenyon's BBCQT appearance Anthropic's IPO moment is here, but Wall Street wants more – The Armchair Trader

And it has/will clearly have an impact on sentiment pre and post IPO (if it goes well, all next IPO's will go ok, if not, they probably won't..OpenAi, Anthropic etc), some $55bn sold into the close last Friday by CTA's - most likely making room for this.. >>>> S&P Dow Jones did not change rules to make it easier for SpaceX $SPCX to get fast track entry into the S&P 500 (this after NASDAQ did change its rules – (reminiscent of the times when they changed rules in 2000 ?.. ..why change the rules......? ), meanwhile GS expects SpaceX’s AI revenue to surge 100-fold by 2030, these estimates depend on aggressive AI growth assumptions, pretty crazy valuations, take a stab at it and bet on the future ? look for a dip ‘to take a bet on the future’ ? .. Record‑high valuation and multi‑step markup Private valuation ramped from a few hundred billion to around 1.7–2.0 trillion in roughly 18 months, then IPOs at that peak range.Goldman Sachs Predicts SpaceX Revenue Will Surge 100X By 2030 Retail and index buyers are effectively stepping in after a ~5x private re‑rating, with little room for error on growth and profitability. SPACEX: The Biggest Insider Cashout in Market History? | Professor Of Chart By S on Binance Square SpaceX says it’s worth $1.75tn as it targets largest stock market debut All‑primary IPO but designed for fast insider liquidity later The IPO itself is “all‑primary”: only SpaceX sells shares at the offering, so insiders are not selling in the IPO transaction. However, the structure is set up so that insiders can begin unloading relatively soon after, turning later buyers into their exit liquidity. SpaceX IPO lock-up structure lets most insiders sell shares early Unusually aggressive, staggered lock‑up schedule Instead of a standard 180‑day “no selling” lock‑up, SpaceX uses performance‑ and time‑based tranches. SpaceX insiders will get to sell shares earlier than usual after the IPO After the first earnings report as a public company, insiders can sell up to around 20% of eligible shares, with an extra 10% if the stock is about 30% above IPO price. Additional 7% chunks then unlock at multiple short intervals (around 70–135 days), and more shares unlock after the second earnings report, so a large portion can be sold well before 180 days. Musk locked for a year, others aren’t Elon Musk commits to not selling for roughly 366 days, so he cannot use the early‑release tranches. Most other insiders and early investors can, so tens of billions in stock can hit the market months before his lock‑up ends. SpaceX IPO lock-up structure lets most insiders sell shares early Rule changes to fast‑track index inclusion Nasdaq, Russell and potentially S&P adjust their index rules so mega‑IPOs like SpaceX can be added in weeks instead of many months. S&P refuses to waive rules for megacap IPOs ahead of SpaceX listing (SPCX:Pending) | Seeking Alpha This means index funds and many 401(k) / passive vehicles may be forced buyers shortly after listing, creating built‑in demand against which insiders can sell. Low float plus rapid float expansion The IPO starts with a relatively low free float, which can help the price run up if demand is strong. The staggered lock‑up then quickly increases float as insiders sell, potentially creating a series of supply waves into any post‑IPO enthusiasm. SpaceX IPO lock-up structure lets most insiders sell shares early Retail / index buyers as “exit liquidity” The combination of (a) extreme valuation, (b) fast index inclusion, and (c) early insider unlocks is framed as using retail and passive capital as exit liquidity for early investors. If growth or margins disappoint, late buyers could be left holding a highly priced, capital‑intensive and still loss‑making business while insiders have already sold a meaningful slice. Narrative vs. fundamentals risk The IPO is marketed on a huge TAM — rockets, launch, Starlink, AI — and “generational” status, but at >100x sales and ongoing large losses, the margin for execution errors is tiny. The thread’s core claim: even if SpaceX is an amazing company long‑term, the IPO structure and timing are optimized for insiders, not for new public investor SpaceX IPO at $750B: Should You Buy In? [2026]

Iran updates : Trump pleads with Netanyahu after horror airstrikes on Iran war's 100th day... (widening gap between US and Israel..), A White House official is now reportedly saying Trump made a "fundamental miscalculation" when it comes to Iran. For months, Trump has been saying a deal with Iran was close. Just today, he said Netanyahu would have "no choice" but to accept a U.S.-Iran agreement and insisted the negotiations were still on track. Then Iran launched another major missile attack. Then Israel responded with more strikes. Now, according to this official, the administration is admitting it fundamentally misread how Iran would behave>>> This is the first time in decades that a regional power has the means, capacity, and willingness to put hard power against Israeli military manoeuvers or aggression against a third party!.. Markets : so finally QQQ comes back to a little bit of reality, plenty of 'worse day YTD', ok but a reminder NASDAQ has gone up some 30-35% since early April !, plenty of crowded trades hammered, URA, Precious metals, Gold miners, very decent liquidatin of owned positions, preparing for the biggest IPO ever, it has been reported that CTA's sold some $55bn on Friday into the close. KOSPI (South Korea is the ultimate leading indicator for global growth...and equity valuation madness lately...), NIKKEI which have had a bombastic run up, also have come off fairly sharply.. >>> beware MOMENUM, clearly turned, and NO wonder.. as discussed last week, it happens after NASDAQ changed rules for the SpaceX IPO.. ! ... not good...and duration, UST yields up too, 10's 4.57%, there was no hiding after a strong NFP on Friday (+170K) #USDJPY Japan sold some 73bn USD not long ago, and here we are, back to same lev The worst possible welcome gift for a new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is already facing his first major inflation shock CPI jumps to 4.1%. Highest in 3 years Core CPI jumps to 2.8%. Highest in 9 months Trump wanted rate cuts Warsh wanted rate cuts Inflation just said: not happening!... not a friendly outcome for markets either #QQQ Israeli military launches retaliatory strikes on Iran after Tehran attacks northern Israel - follow live - BBC News Trump pleads with Netanyahu after horror airstrikes on Iran war's 100th day - AOL A White House official is now reportedly saying Trump made a "fundamental miscalculation" when it comes to Iran. For months, Trump has been saying a deal with Iran was close. Just today, he said Netanyahu would have "no choice" but to accept a U.S.-Iran agreement and insisted the negotiations were still on track. Then Iran launched another major missile attack. Then Israel responded with more strikes. Now, according to this official, the administration is admitting it fundamentally misread how Iran would behave Trump lost it, and stormed out.....worst meltdown ever... 'I've had enough': Donald Trump loses temper, throws mic, walks out of interview when asked about false election fraud claims, what exactly happened? 'Clown' Pete Hegseth branded a 'disgrace' for anniversary D-Day speech in France - AOL Nasdaq Suffers Sharpest Drop Since April 2025 as Chip Stocks Lose $1.3T Starmer hosts Zelensky and French and German leaders for talks on Ukraine - AOL #JPY Bull Theory on X: "BREAKING: The Japanese Yen just hit 160 against the dollar again, the same level Japan spent $73 billion trying to defend earlier this year. It did not work and The yen is back at 160. A weak yen is a direct inflation crisis for Japan. The country imports nearly all of its https://t.co/8e9TMVM39p" / X Banks Lay Groundwork for Mass Workforce Cuts as AI Takes Hold - Bloomberg Switzerland faces new US tariffs over forced labour concerns - SWI swissinfo.ch Switzerland will not join EU Copernicus scheme in coming years - SWI swissinfo.ch For most of the war, Ukraine couldn’t touch it. This week its drones reached the heart of Putin’s Russia — twice EndGame Macro on X: "The KOSPI Shock Is A Warning About Crowded AI Trades The KOSPI’s 8.4% opening plunge is a forced repricing in a market that had become one of the cleanest global expressions of the AI and semiconductor trade. South Korea is not trading like a broad, neutral equity market right" / X

Iran updates : Trump says he could meet Iran’s supreme leader ‘if it was to make a deal’, China's Xi to visit North Korea next week, first time since 2019 Markets: S&P momentum index (2months % change near 30% - another big warning sign - chart available on request), Deutsche Bank on the huge stock market run-up: "Since WWII, the only other time the S&P 500 has risen this rapidly (except after a recession) was months before a huge market crash.", Oracle is cutting 30,000 employees by June 15, roughly 18% of its global workforce, PM's testing key support (GOLD 200dma $ 4430, Silver 71.50, BTC through 60K would send alarm bells for the bulls, Iron Ore lower, Copper softer etc.. >>> sign of slower economy, stronger USD ahead of the biggest bigly ever IPO, where you can take a view on 'valuations' or the future, India CB cuts (lower growth outlook), S&P Dow Jones will not change rules to make it easier for SpaceX $SPCX to get fast track entry into the S&P 500 (this after NASDAQ did change rules), Across 50+ central banks worldwide, the number of rate hikes exceeded the number of cuts in May, first time it has happened since Oct 2023... a turn! RBI may have sold nearly $12 billion worth of Gold lately #USD liquidity ! Chinese EVs are cheap and popular — so why not let them flood western markets? Soumaya Keynes and Paul Krugman weigh the arguments on whether the US and Europe should embrace China's comparative advantage in the sector/Podcast South Korea labour minister calls on tech firms to share excess AI profits with suppliers, staff down sharply Bitcoin was sold as the asset that survives geopolitical chaos. The chaos arrived. Bitcoin bled/Thread (...and Saylor who would never ever sell BTC, sold some at $77k) BYD opens first German Denza store in posh Hamburg neighbourhood, takes aim at Porsche The world can’t keep consuming more than it produces Trump’s 250th Celebration Is a Fiasco - The Atlantic Iran US Israel War Live Updates: Khamenei Declares New Front 'Within' Iran War As Israeli Strikes Continue | Times Now How Ukraine war is playing out in the skies US officials eye government stakes in AI companies, NOTUS reports | Reuters RBI may have sold gold to save foreign reserves, BE report shows - The Economic Times India's cenbank keeps rates steady at 5.25% How to win a trade war, with Paul Krugman and Chad Bown 30 mins podcast Why Oracle is Cutting 30,000 Jobs Despite a $6 Billion Quarterly Income Michael Burry is shorting NVDA, Steve Eisman says not so fast: Why the 'Big Short' stars are on opposite sides of the trade Bitcoin News: BTC USD Just Hit Its Lowest Level Since February BTC Crashed 12% as $1.85B Liquidated: Blaming Saylor Is Wrong STRATEGY'S BITCOIN U-TURN:WSJ For years, Michael Saylor urged investors to never sell bitcoin—famously saying, “Sell a kidney if you must, but keep the bitcoin.” Now, his company, Strategy, is preparing to sell part of its bitcoin holdings to remain solvent. The irony is hard to miss: Saylor still appears to have both kidneys. ITM Power deepens UK hydrogen push with Protium partnership – The Armchair Trader How Ryanair Built Europe's Most Profitable Airline By Making Flying As Uncomfortable As Possible Andy Burnham puts No 10 ambitions on the record - NATIONAL NEWS - The Leamington Observer Ships in Persian Gulf quietly coordinate with U.S. Navy to exit Hormuz BYD targets Porsche, BMW, Audi in Germany with Denza premium brand - Automotive News The world can’t keep consuming more than it produces