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''' "Who knows better about surprise than Japan?" Trump said, before adding, "Why didn't you tell me about Pearl Harbor?"'' UK, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Japan issue a joint statement expressing their “readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts” to ensure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, while welcoming countries undertaking preparations, coordinating strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) releases, and exploring ways to boost output. >>> it takes TWO to TACO.. Iran has a say in it.. Markets : BoE unchanged as expected (and pretty hawkish overall - sharp UK gilts yields move in 2y +40bps !! somebody blew up out there..) , Software 'credit' gets all the headlines, building materials is quietly falling apart, JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs are now offering hedge funds ways to short the $1.8 trillion private credit market , good wrap on the Iran war from Ed Conway (Thread), Israeli soldiers have reportedly declared opposition to Benjamin Netanyahu during a clash in Lebanon (big if true) >>> slightly oversold Eq markets, liquidation in PM's last few days (ME accounts looking for 'any' usd liquidity..AND China buying big last 24hours...), Trump looking for some sort of 'off ramp' exit (allegedly) or will he go further in Iran with ground troops (seems unlikely, or suicidal ..probably just threats).., Pantagon asking for another $200bn for the war, 3weeks in, that's more of a sign that its not even close of being over though.. >>> HUGE quadruple witching OpEx day, watch moves into close.. FED : Near‑term inflation expectations have risen on supply shocks tied to energy and geopolitics, which tend to be episodic and act more like a tax on consumers. By contrast, longer‑term inflation expectations tied to wages, services, and consumption remain well anchored, suggesting demand‑driven inflation continues to ease. That distinction helps explain the Fed’s patience without taking rate cuts off the table this year..... U.S. M2 Money Supply hits new all-time high of $22.45 Trillion QatarEnergy CEO says the Iranian attack overnight damaged ~17% of its LNG production capacity, and it would take 3-5 years to repair the damage. Chinese government pours $20 billion into a revolutionary AI model — opening the Private credit didn't blow up because of Blue Owl or bad software loans or AI disruption , that's just the symptoms, this disease comes back every 10+ years, seen it before over the last 35yeara in markets... >> it's just too much money, too much leverage, too little discipline (lazy), and a financial product sold as "safe" to people who didn't understand what they owned (driven by greed).. Goldman Sachs on stocks: The Hormuz shock is the largest oil supply shock on record" Equity correction risk remains elevated  in the near term, but we continue to think bear market  risk remains limited. While geopolitical shocks and their market impact are difficult to time, we think equities have not priced in enough risk premium for the risk of a more lasting shock - based on the disruptions so far our economists have already reflected a worsening growth/inflation mix and raised their recession probability." Israel Will Avoid Attacking Iran's Energy Assets, Netanyahu Says If the regime survives: Iran war raises the ante for US, Israel - Middle East Institute BIG if true Express News on X: "🚨 Breaking: Israeli soldiers have reportedly declared opposition to Benjamin Netanyahu during a clash in Lebanon, saying they no longer want to fight and are calling to stand together against him, demanding peace and stating that war brings them no benefit. It was claimed that https://t.co/MPgO7i792R " / X Chinese government pours $20 billion into a revolutionary AI model — opening the door for everyone to join the next era of artificial intelligence. Donald Trump, Japan's Takaichi announce $40 billion US nuclear reactor project | Today News This was the low of the lows.. Trump makes Pearl Harbor joke during meeting with Japan PM – NBC New York Meta AI agent’s instruction causes large sensitive data leak to employees | AI (artificial intelligence) | The Guardian Exclusive: Iran attack wipes out 17% of Qatar’s LNG capacity for up to five years, QatarEnergy CEO says | Reuters Bank of England holds interest rates at 3.75% amid Iran conflict No-one on committee voted for a cut this time. And minutes say: "CPI inflation will be higher in the near term as a result of the new shock to the economy." Investors expect hikes, not cuts, later this year Why Ferrari temporarily suspended deliveries in the Middle East? Explained | Business Upturn Airline SAS to cancel 1,000 flights in April due to high fuel prices, DI reports | Reuters junkbondinvestor on X: "Software gets all the headlines. Building materials is quietly falling apart. > Cornerstone: 60 cents > Jeld-Wen: 74 cents > US LBM: 90% EBITDA decline guided Higher rates. Less renovation. Same 2022 leverage https://t.co/iMWL3ek4tI " / X UK interest rates held at 3.75% as Iran war scuppers hopes of a cut | MoneyWeek TFTC on X: "JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs are now offering hedge funds ways to short the $1.8 trillion private credit market. They've assembled baskets of companies with exposure, alt managers, BDCs, and lenders tied to private credit. This isn't speculation. These are structured products https://t.co/T6kiOshljb " / X Ed Conway on X: "📽️ There have been many scary, unnerving days in this latest Gulf war. But the past 24 hours was particularly bad. Why? Because both sides are now causing lasting damage to the world economy's life support system. Our latest primer on the econ consequences of this war👇 https://t.co/OaFcS7ehr8 " / X

The Fed sort of said neutral rates are going higher (dots, inflation..), not temporarily but maybe even structurally, a 3.1% terminal rate reprices EVERYTHING with a duration component.. unless of course we get a big recession and inflation heads south, but not for pleasant reasons clearly.. and Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave the bad news early: "There is effectively ZERO NET JOB CREATION in the private sector." ''The American empire is at risk''.. clearly, of being replaced by CHINA in the Middle East , they are stepping up to mediate peace in the region, in Yuan, completely bypassing the US.... AND >>> The AI boom is AT RISK of being confirmed over, a long lasting, more expensive / energy crisis, making energy hungry AI investments near impossible.. / far too expensive, and thus #valuations are way off... Markets : US February PPI came in higher than expected at 3.4% vs expectations at 2.9% This means core inflation is heating up!, private credit exodus from investors spreads to consumer loans, BANK DEFAULTS likely up from Middle East resorts, refineries, infrastructure, real estate..., JPMorgan halts $5.3bn Qualtrics debt deal as AI fears chill demand, Stoneridge AM only 11% you can have, Every time oil prices surged 50%+ above trend, a recession followed (every single time - chart available)..,   U.S national debt $39 TRN, two ECB hikes of 25bps now priced in for ECB in 2026, FED will do nothing (unless forced to emergency cut if say equity markets tank in short-term - they will panic), PM risk assets as ME capital disappears >>>> overall, NO need to be too brave, wait for opportunities to come your way.., the real eye of the storm is approaching, prepare your shopping list of solid names, balance-sheets..(we have), liquidation as/when funding runs out in parts of the world, create dislocation and opportunities.., a 10-20pct correction cannot be ruled out, due to this ME war, it is ALL about the length of the conflict, but already some EXTREMELY serious damage done to infrastructure, military stance, LNF, crude, fertilizers and so on.., huge GDP loss in ME, followed by more bad loans etc.. Private credit is panicking : • Defaults have quadrupled • ~20-25% exposure to software facing AI disruption • Retail investors are running for the exits, only getting 10-15pct liquidity.. (bet they weren't told this when they initially invested..) China stops fertilizer exports as American farmers face fertilizer shortages Iran is now moving ahead with the idea of levying transit duties on the Strait of Hormuz... $73 billion a year in projected income from the world’s most critical energy chokepoint, Iran does not need to win a conventional war. All they have to do is keep the Strait of Hormuz closed and bleed the Gulf economies dry....and they don't need to be on Truth social every 30 seconds either... Citi not ruling out $200 oil. "We are incrementally bullish very near-term and see prices rising to $110–120/bbl in the base case, with the risk skew surrounding current prices tilted to the upside. Our bull case scenario (multiple paths to get there) is for Brent prices to reach $150/bbl, and for ‘all-in’ crude and product prices reaching as high as $180–200/bbl by mid-year ." Over £1.3bn missing at failed lender. #MFS investigated over ‘very serious’ fraud claims #GOLD : Question: Who sells their gold in such a macro environment? Answer: Anyone who needs liquidity to make ends meet. For example, the Gulf states, whose economy is now existentially threatened by the war This war is the end of the empire. "If Iran holds out, if Iran achieves its objectives, well, it's in effect the end of, the American empire." French intellectual Emmanuel Todd says it's not Russia winning, it's the West losing. All self inflicted. Fed Chair Jerome Powell just said the quiet part out loud -- and these 8 words are roiling Wall Street Exclusive-US Weighs Military Reinforcements as Iran War Enters Possible New Phase Iran inflicts ‘extensive damage’ on site of world’s largest LNG facility in Qatar Iran conflict turns shipping market into ‘wild west’ "The largest shipping groups, including MSC, Maersk, CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd, have told customers they reserve the right to invoke a 19th-century rule to allow them to leave containers at the nearest available port at their client’s expense." Israel Iran War Iran May Allow Oil Tankers Through Strait of Hormuz, But There's A China Catch Israel destroys river bridges in southern Lebanon why...humm Private credit’s investor exodus spreads to consumer loans Private credit jitters ripple to funds with consumer loan holdings - InvestmentNews JPMorgan halts $5.3bn Qualtrics debt deal as AI fears chill demand THE ISLANDER on X: "🇮🇷🇮🇱🇺🇸 Iran is now moving ahead with the idea of levying transit duties on the Strait of Hormuz... $73 billion a year in projected income from the world’s most critical energy chokepoint. Circa 27% percent of the world’s maritime crude oil trade moves through that strait. Iran https://t.co/NnCV5gxxrP " / X Lenders warn collapsed UK ‘shadow bank’ has £1.3bn hole Negligible Capital on X: "Private credit’s investor exodus is spreading to consumer loans, according to WSJ Interval fund Stone Ridge Asset Management, which holds consumer loans made by $XYZ and $AFRM are apparently under stress due to redemption requests Stone Ridge honoring 11% redemption requests https://t.co/V0lotMcP1P " / X Brian Sozzi on X: "🤔Citi's "two scenarios" for the US war on Iran: First Scenario "Over the next several weeks, the Administration’s appetite for the conflict diminishes and the United States pulls out, declaring the operations a resounding success.  As the US pulls out, the Iranian regime takes" / X

Markets : The Trump team intends to deploy troops to the shores of Iran for "sea control" on Kharg Island.... . Brent drops, Iraq agreed with Kurdistan to resume oil exports through a pipeline in the semi-autonomous region, a boost for OPEC’s second-largest producer after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz forced output cuts, the shipments will resume on Wednesday at 10 a.m. local time, the Kurdish Rudaw news service reported, citing Iraqi Oil Minister Hayyan Abdul-Ghani, Kurdistan’s government confirmed the resumption in a statement, US retail average diesel prices have topped the $5-per-gallon barrier for the 2nd time ever, the Bypass fails: UAE slashes Oil prod by 50% as Fujairah shuts down, leveraged loans used to recover ~80 cents in a bankruptcy (that’s sunk to 60), #KRE below 200dma, U.S mortgage rates surge to 6.86% — highest level since last Nov, Artificial intelligence is making the world more unpredictable, Nvidia restarts manufacturing of AI chips for China, Six months before the Trump admin began bombing Iran, the Department of State fired its oil and gas experts (shocking..) >>> Eq markets 'want' to squeeze higher, lower vols, lower crude should help shake short-term positioning in long crude, long usd, long vols, short equity... #JPY Japan wage talks point to 5% hike for third straight year. Increase would mark first such streak in 35 years, pending final tallies One theory is that Trump may have genuinely believed (wrongly) that winning in Iran would give him a leg-up on China in the negotiations, and he's delaying the trip because it went the opposite way and he'd be negotiating - from his standpoint - from a position of weakness... #miscalculated #badlyadvised #randomdecision In BofA's latest fund manager survey, cash levels jumped from 3.4% last month to 4.3% in March, the biggest increase since the pandemic, "Global growth optimism slumps to net 7% from 39%, inflation expectations jump to net 45% from 9%, rate cut optimism lowest since Feb'23; but no one pricing in recession:" Malaysia becomes first country to declare US trade deal 'null and void' after Supreme Court tariff ruling, the first of many ?... KKR Co-CEO: “The largest 100 U.S. companies in the United States have seen their margins expand materially in the last 5 years, 14% to 19%. The next 1,400 companies have had their margins flat and are working to stay even.“ Fed Meeting Begins as Iran War Complicates the Path for Interest Rate Cuts Iran war: What happens if Trump pushes to seize Kharg Island Trump struggles to build coalition to reopen Strait of Hormuz amid Iran war No wonder when you spent best part of year telling them all how useless they were... Iran launces strikes on Israel, U.S. assets after Larijani is killed US drops 5,000-pound 'bunker buster' bombs on Iran missile sites near Strait of Hormuz: What is it - CNBC TV18 Dubai Abu Dhabi News LIVE: Dubai Intercepts Iranian Missiles; UAE Says Its Air Defences Dealing With Missile Threat - News18 Iran-US war: Missiles shot down over Dubai Macron: France will never join operations to open the Strait of Hormuz | NHK WORLD-JAPAN News Iran war: Germany's Merz distances himself from Trump Trump-Xi meeting may be postponed: Beijing denies 'false reports', says delay not linked to Strait of Hormuz issue Trump’s DOGE Cuts Slashed Staff That Handled Middle Eastern Oil and Gas Crises - NOTUS — News of the United States ABSOLUTELY top planning ! China is not going to bail Trump out Malaysia becomes first country to declare US trade deal 'null and void' after Supreme Court tariff ruling Malaysie the first of many more to come ?... Inside San Francisco’s new AI school: is this the future of US education? | AI (artificial intelligence) | The Guardian Nvidia restarts manufacturing of AI chips for China Investors underestimating AI, says Oaktree's Howard Marks Top Apollo executive sounds off on 'arrogance' in private markets "Asked what kind of recovery rates he anticipates on a private-credit loan to a generic small or midsize “Joe Software Company,” Zito said: “Joe Software Company, if he’s in the wrong place, I think is going to recover somewhere between 20 and 40 cents.” Shadow bank collapse floods London with luxury properties Reeves’ ambitious growth rhetoric clashes with reality Illiquid Insights on X: "Competition in direct lending has inflated EBITDA addbacks. 5.0x leverage today is very different from a decade ago. https://t.co/4dZxiFRLs1 " / X Illiquid Insights on X: "1L leveraged loans used to recover ~80 cents in a bankruptcy. That’s sunk to 60. Weaker docs and less junior debt are squeezing recoveries. https://t.co/wOFFDuorcj " / X Why no one wants to buy a flat in London Not everything ever goes up in price, whoever taught this to people.. maybe a little naiver to believe this too... the real issue is 'service charge ...and taxes'...which have become quite ridiculous in parts of London.. >> END leasehold !!

Markets have so far focused more on the inflationary effects of the oil price move up - shock (and other commods) rather than the risks to global growth from it, will fertilizer get there in time in variosu parts of the world to avoid 'food infl by Xmas', RBA hiked 25bps, #NVDA 's $1trn Ai forecast, WSJ- The Fed keeps getting hit with new shocks in its yearslong inflation fight, Mr Market 'feels' some sort of Trump deal is coming, for years Mr Market always had a simple strategy, as governments kicked the problem down the road, printed money, and told the public everything was fine (trillion usd question now..is this still the case ? private credit, Middle East, HUGE defense build up & spending, Ukraine-Russia, Taiwan.. and a global economy likely to be hit fairly hard from all these dislocations.., stagflation risk .. >>> so use short-covering rally in equity to lighten up on risk/rotate/watchout risk of stagflation, USD should resume it's downside move (De-dollarization etc, U.S. isolated geopolitically and perhaps economically, peak BigTechs etc), pick up hard assets on dips.. Geopolitics : Tehran is clearly going after the Strait of Hormuz bypass route, with Fujairah (UAE) coming under attack, BA flights (and other airlines) to Dubai cancelled till summer, Trump asked to delay Xi visit at end of the month , will have ago a Cuba soon, Iranian oil tankers going through Hormuz, plenty of reports that Netanyahu and some of his top security leadership are dead (TBC), Iran war begets fertilizer and other supply cost worries for US farmers French General Yakovleff: “The U.S. asks us for help and wants us to share the cost of their fiascos. Joining Trump’s coalition today is like buying a ticket to dinner and dancing on the Titanic the evening after it hit the iceberg.” Qatari advisor Hamad bin Jassim said: “The Gulf states warned Donald Trump that the war would lead to disaster, yet it erupted without calculations or a Plan B. Iran will not surrender to the U.S. and Israel, and it will engage in a war of attrition affecting everyone. Iran, however, has nothing to lose.” Iran’s New Battlefield: The Global Economy (thread), Axios: Iranians will keep the Strait of Hormuz closed until they get a permanent peace deal, even if Trump TACO's. Privately, U.S. and Middle Eastern officials believe the crisis could continue for the next six months Yesterday........ Trump has started praising Iran : “I’m dealing with very smart players. These are smart people. They don’t get there otherwise. You know who you’re dealing with. High-level intellect. High ,very high-IQ people.”....he also said... “IRAN is a nation of…GREAT POWER… TREMENDOUS POWER” “No one expected them to attack the gulf states. We were shocked” He's getting desperate for a deal of some sorts.. (1) Iran’s New Battlefield: The Global Economy Iran-US war latest: US embassy in Iraq attacked while Trump lashes out at UK after Nato rejects Strait of Hormuz demand | The Independent Fujairah oil terminal attack - Oil & Gas Middle East Australia central bank hikes rates to a near 1-year high as Iran war raises inflation risks Iran war begets fertilizer and other supply cost worries for US farmers ''' India needs urea by May, U.S Corn belt need urea by mid~Apr, Australia needs by June. Miss those windows and u have massive yield loss. The food is not decided by diplomats in 6 months. It is decided by soil chemistry in the next six weeks. The prices hit your table by Christmas''' The Fed keeps getting hit with new shocks in its yearslong inflation fight Shah gas field ablaze after Iranian drone strike as Gulf energy war widens - The Economic Times British Airways cancels UAE flights amid MidEast travel chaos Trump: U.S. asked China to delay Xi meeting 'a month or so' due to Iran war Trump says he thinks he will have the 'honor' of 'taking Cuba' U.S. allows Iranian oil tankers through Strait of Hormuz, says Bessent Naval escorts will not guarantee safe passage through Strait of Hormuz, says IMO chief What’s behind Nvidia’s new $1 trillion AI forecast? Jensen Huang lays out the next wave Julius-Bär-CEO Bollinger erhält 24 Mio. Fr. Brian Sozzi on X: "Why Kharg Island is so important. Explained (v/JP Morgan): "Much of Iran’s mainland coast along the Persian Gulf is shallow and silty, meaning fully loaded VLCC supertankers, which require 65-82 feet of draft when fully loaded, would have difficulty approaching without very https://t.co/sbU3gsE0ou " / X Liz Webster on X: "🔥 2008 Donald Trump would impeach 2026 Trump. Watch 👀 this clip. 2008: Trump says any president who invades the Middle East under false pretences should be impeached. 2026: The U.S. is escalating another war in the Middle East with no clear objective. https://t.co/K8M76IJDTm " / X Nach grossem Migrations-Weekend: UBS vor Abgangswelle – Inside Paradeplatz

Markets : US/Iran ceasefire before Trump meets Xi in China ? (most probably the aim..).., All 7 members of the Magnificent Seven are down on the year and underperforming the S&P 500, and credit woes (financials, Blackrock etc down 20-30pct YTD too), it's not about crude oil only!, Bahrain cuts output at world's top aluminium smelter, Outflows from US financial stock funds are breaking records, according to Bank of America, Grace period over for UBS (CHF 10bn will be needed by 2027) >>> nothing like a disastrous war to make an U.S president realize the value of multilateralism?.. ? , Trump’s best move right now might be to declare victory, stop fighting start/support negotiations to open the strait of Hormuz, little or no confidence this can happen, but other options look much worse !! >>> overall equity markets 'want' to short cover on some good news such as 'war is over, Trump won', while they may rally short-term, credit wounds are huge, the ME-DUBAI financial losses will be enormous, an thus potential future ME investments in the U.S (mainly) and elsewhere may be cancelled or at least renegotiated.. Crude, WTI is still above $100...and that IS an expensive problem for the global economy, together with all the other 'commodity' issues, incl LNG Dubai halted flights at its main airport after a drone caused a fire at a nearby fuel tank. Donald Trump demanded other countries help secure passage for ships in the Strait of Hormuz as Iran continues to disrupt the region’s energy markets. Trump said his planned summit with Xi Jinping may be delayed if Beijing doesn’t assist in unblocking Hormuz, Donald Trump warns Nato faces ‘very bad future’ if allies fail to help US in Iran/FT, IRGC warned major U.S. corporations in region to evacuate (U.S military bases, then the Strait of Hormuz, and now U.S corporations..some kind of guerilla warfare on global scale), Massive coverup happening right now. Israel has turned off public satellites to hide the apocalyptic damage, one possible outcome..: Iran’s military is devastated. Regime survives. The Strait stays closed until both sides find a face-saving off-ramp. Trump declares victory. Khamenei declares resistance. Oil drops. Nuclear program set back. We’ll be back here in 10 years... The US military is terrified of Iran's asymmetric warfare . General Anderson admits Iran has "enormous" capabilities, citing drone swarms and suicide speedboats that could sink US warships just like the USS Cole. "Buckle up, because this is going to get worse." Some kind of doom loop. .US has entered the Doom Loop; meaning the economic, social, geopolitical & monetary problems are too big & too time consuming to solve compared to the scale & rate they are building up... CNBC on new inflation numbers: "It shows that even before the war, there's some heat especially when it comes to services inflation, and that's going to be ultimately the message to the Fed" Retail investors pull billions from private capital’s credit gold mine. Flood of redemptions threatens to stall one of Wall Street’s most important sources of growth >>> UBS says private credit defaults could hit 15%. That's 3x the peak bank loan default rate in 2008 Israel says it still has thousands of targets in Iran, as Trump and Starmer discuss Strait of Hormuz - follow live - BBC News Rumours of Netanyahu’s death, AI-generated video proven false amid Israel-Iran war Iran Israel War Live Updates: School Hit in Iran’s Khomein; Airstrike Reported Near Chabahar | Times Now US Israel Iran war: Dubai int'l airport gradually resumes flight ops, Emirates likely to resume limited flights Donald Trump warns Nato faces ‘very bad future’ if allies fail to help US in Iran Retail investors pull billions from private capital’s credit gold mine Consumer sentiment hits lowest reading of the year in early March amid Middle East war Will Dubai’s $250B property market survive the Middle-East conflict? Goldman Sachs on the Gulf: Qatar and Kuwait could each see their GDP contract by 14% this year should the conflict continue through April, resulting in a two-month halt of the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia and the UAE would fare better given their ability to re-route oil flows away from critical Hormuz waterway, but would still likely see GDP drop by about 3% and 5%. Bahrain starts output cuts at world's top aluminum smelter The Jones Act: Can A Waiver Slow Surging Gasoline Prices? Jeffrey P. Snider on X: "BREAKING: Now It's Wells Fargo AND Deutsche Bank Deutsche Bank's stock is down 30% since January. Wells Fargo is following the same path. These aren't small crypto lenders or obscure hedge funds. These are global systemically important banks, and they're getting sold off for" / X Lark Davis on X: "𝗕𝗹𝗮𝗰𝗸𝗿𝗼𝗰𝗸. 𝗕𝗹𝗮𝗰𝗸𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗻𝗲. 𝗝𝗣 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗴𝗮𝗻. 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗴𝗮𝗻 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝗻𝗹𝗲𝘆. All blocked or capped withdrawals from their private credit funds in Q1 2026. This is not a rumour. It's in the filings. In 2007, the same thing happened with mortgage funds. We know how https://t.co/xtJAFcomwo " / X Where Switzerland stands on the Iran war - SWI swissinfo.ch Keller-Sutter zeigt Kelleher-Ermotti den Meister – Inside Paradeplatz Italy explores nuclear return after 40 years as energy costs hit - The Japan Times The US Navy decommissioned Middle East minesweepers last year. Here’s what they did.

Donald Trump and Iran’s leader traded barbs, with the US president saying stopping Tehran from obtaining nuclear weapons matters more than the cost of oil. Mojtaba Khamenei vowed to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed . Benjamin Netanyahu said he cannot guarantee regime change in Iran without an internal uprising. (BBG), Trump says he thinks Iran's new supreme leader is alive but 'damaged'. (Reuters), US has further eased Russian sanctions, allowing ALL countries (and not just India) to buy Russian oil already loaded by March 12, WSJ >>> T his is nightmare for fuel price : JPMORGAN: "If the US cannot achieve a short-term victory, it seems likely that it will be forced to attempt a ground war to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. If so, this could transform into a multiyear war" , 'diesel shortages and NatGas shortages in some places already', ..Iran is taking out $1.2 billion US radar systems and hitting targets in Jordan and Bahrain with pinpoint accuracy. Experts admit they are likely receiving direct targeting intelligence from Russia and a massive Chinese electronic warfare vessel off the coast. Markets : Let's face it, the U.S (big techs etc etc) has always depended MASSIVELY on Gulf Nations investing in America (IF this has to stop and/or simply be decreased for food security say, there would be MASSIVE consequences in the U.S for long-term valuations..).... , Private credit fund gates so far this month: Blue Owl → BlackRock → HPS → Cliffwater → Morgan Stanley, Adobe CEO Shantanu Narayen is stepping down after 18 years, Honda slumps to first annual loss since going public in the 1950s (whole sector been in big trouble), VERY expensive war, crude up, shipping costs up, supply chain tightening, bond yields rising (in a huge govt debt pile..), hidden credit stress building in private credit world, western countries facing a rising funding needs competing with a faster EMG world, tough place to be, hard to see this ending without more printing of 'fiat issuance' over time.. >> further rotation going, though much under pressure in eq world, 10's UST yields 4.28% alarm bells.. (the longer it goes on, the worst it gets fiscally in US and many others..), USD 'risk-off bid', could drag us back to 1.10 EURUSD, SPX 6K, again duration of conflict is ALL that matters, Hormuz etc.. The Fed can't cut because of oil. Can't hike because of jobs. Can't do nothing because the curve is screaming (higher inflation & expected fiscal expansion due to oil crisis..), Monetary policy was built for one crisis at a time, we have -3- of them at the same time... US, China officials to meet in Paris on March 15-16, before Trump-Xi summit Deutsche Bank flags a US$30 bil exposure to private credit IMF's former economist warns Governments around world don't have the fiscal capacity needed to respond to any economic downturn caused by an OIL SHOCK (Iran knows...), this is clearly not great, but obvious, watch bonds/duration ... Damn if you do, damn if you don’t: The U.S. and Israel face two bad options when it comes to Iran (Thread) Amazon sold $37bn in debt on Tue, for the 4th largest corporate bond sale of all time And so it starts (they won't be the last..!), Denmark’s Energy Minister urged people to reduce fuel use amid the oil shock from the Iran war, saying: “Please, please, please — if you do not need to drive, do not do so.” U.S. Navy to escort oil tankers through Strait of Hormuz when possible, Bessent says Iran’s leader says Strait of Hormuz should stay closed By Investing.com US eases Russia oil sanctions as Iran war pushes up energy prices Why Gulf security is critical to global security - Atlantic Council Half of Thailand’s fishing fleet may stay in port due to diesel shortage, rising fuel prices US has burned through ‘years’ of munitions since start of Iran war Macro Liquidity by Sunil Reddy on X: "Why would U.S. intervention in oil futures be a “biblical disaster”? Because oil futures aren’t just a casino for traders. They are the pricing engine for the global energy system. Airlines use it to lock fuel costs. Shipping companies hedge diesel. Refiners hedge crude. Oil" / X Not going to happen..unless equity markets have a 'mini collapse' - perhaps Trump demands Powell cut rates as Iran conflict raises energy prices | Fox Business How Does the United States’ Fiscal Position Compare to Other Countries’? Badly.. Honda slumps to first annual loss since going public in the 1950s Deutsche Bank flags a US$30 bil exposure to private credit Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش on X: "Damn if you do, damn if you don’t: The U.S. and Israel face two bad options when it comes to Iran. 1. U.S. intelligence reportedly believes the Iranian regime remains stable. That shouldn’t surprise anyone. The Islamic Republic is built on institutions designed to survive" / X President Trump is "enthusiastic" about continuing the war in Iran for at least another 3-4 weeks even as oil prices rebound, per Axios. Details include: 1. Following a G7 call, France's President Macron said "no one can tell what Donald Trump wants from this war" 2. US and Israel have not secured the 450 kilograms of highly enriched uranium that Iran holds 3. US and Israel reportedly "do not entirely agree on what winning looks like" 4. "We don't want to leave early, do we? We gotta finish the job, right," Trump said Charlie Robertson on X: "Actually the most bullish piece I’ve read on why Iran will unblock the Straits of Hormuz when the Israel/US attack ends. They have succeeded in proving they can cause very significant global disruption if Israel and the US attacks again. They now have a credible deterrent" / X Australia to release nearly 20% of fuel stockpile as Bowen insists country ‘nowhere near’ running out | Business | The Guardian Adobe stock drops after CEO Narayen announces he will step down after 18 years Meta Platforms stalls work on Persian Gulf cable project amid Iran war: Bloomberg | Seeking Alpha

Markets : ALL outcome for markets are a function of time !! NO-ONE really knows how long the IRGC allows this to continue... (Trump of course wants-needs it to stop soon..), if it goes on and on, at some point it may go pretty wrong (credit is DEFO stirring the next shoe to drop, offshore USDollars in demand, cross currency basis on the move etc..), Oil tops $100 after 6 ships, including oil tankers are attacked on Gulf shipping, as mentioned, G7 release of crude reserve are quite useless in short-term, in fact it's more psychological than anything else, the war is not even over, he has to create another storm : The 16 US trading partners hit by Trump's '301' probes >>> DID Mr Market think Iran was joking around when they said the strait is and will remain close?......seems Iran is at war with the stock markets, oil prices, consumer inflation etc..not necessarily to inflict casualties...(U.S infrastructure hit VERY hard, 30years of build-up in the Middle-East and much destroyed in 10days... risk is WTI stays $85+ for rest of the year=inflation higher=no cuts=big trouble for anything leveraged on credit (take Salesforce example yesterday, irresponsible madness 'borrow more for share-buybacks').., given all the above, SPX back to 6000 area would not be too shocking...USD stays firm(er).. Read a few of those recently “Our fund’s performance remains strong”, but we can’t meet the redemption requests''...hum JPM-Kalanovic : To hedge against Oil shock and slowdown, one can short crowded AI cyclicals - momentum names that have not been impacted yet (but will be) such as $EWY   $SNDK   $WDC   $MU A "multitude" of intelligence reports provide "consistent analysis that the regime is not in danger" of collapse and "retains control of the Iranian public," said one of the sources #Cliffwater : another... A $33,000,000,000 private credit fund just told investors: "You can't have your money back.".. #credit #liquidity or lack of.. Grundlach : A Private Credit Fund of Funds in 2026 seems to rather closely resemble a CDO-squared in early 2007...yeps.. JP Morgan said it will likely (my interpretation) be demanding more collateral for their loans to Private Credit. That means JP Morgan believes the collateral values are down from the loan origination date Dubai, Abu Dhabi, UAE Updates: UNSC Demands Iran Stop Attacks On Gulf Nations; Saudi Arabia, UAE Intercept Missiles - News18 Pretty insane action, CHINA not happy apparently.. NoLimit on X: "🚨 THE WAR JUST CROSSED ANOTHER LINE: Here’s everything from the last 24 hours. – Iran has laid approximately A DOZEN MINES in the Strait of Hormuz. CNN confirmed it. This is a massive escalation – The US destroyed 16 Iranian minelayers near the strait in response – IRGC" / X ‘Qatar’s shutdown of LNG production at Ras Laffan has taken a third of global helium supply offline, threatening chip manufacturing, Bloomberg Economics said’ Factbox-The 16 US trading partners hit by Trump's '301' probes US launches probe into trading partners including the EU, China and India Trump Taps Strategic Petroleum Reserve in Response to Iran Shipping Attacks | OilPrice.com Market had already anticipated this with the price drop to 85-90 WTI... that is NOT the way to surprise markets and get best outcome/reaction... in fact how Trump does.. is pathetic.. Not winning.. again BIG ! JPMorgan marks down software-linked private credit loans: report Further cracks appearing...!! Trump Touts Oil Supply Moves, Vows to Finish the Job in Iran Ukraine war latest: Russia blames UK for Storm Shadow strike on military plant, threatens 'new level' escalation U.S. Intelligence Says Iran Government Is Not At Risk Of Collapse, Say Sources | HuffPost Latest News $3.7 Billion: Estimated Cost of Epic Fury’s First 100 Hours Cliffwater $33 Billion Private Credit Fund Redemptions Reach 14% Salesforce Eyes Record $25B Debt Sale to Supercharge Buybacks - Forex News by FX Leaders Peter Mandelson’s appointment as ambassador was ‘weirdly rushed’, Starmer aide warned Water takeovers to be referred to UK government for national security screening Interpol jagt Moretti und Audemars Piguet-Erbe – Inside Paradeplatz

Markets :    WATER CRISIS - Dependency on Desalination :  Kuwait: 90%  Israel: 75%  Saudi Arabia: 70%  Qatar: 50%  UAE: 42%  Iran: 2%, Iran is Trump's Vietnam, Kharg Island: Iran’s oil lifeline that Donald Trump has left untouched, Google, Meta, and Oracle are on a $1 trillion borrowing spree >> IRAN regime KNEW they needed an oil shock and thus a market sell-off to get a TACO..eventually...(admitting defeat in reality)..and they got it, pretty early, last night already (NO pain tolerance..).... relief for markets and folks locally....! the war isn't over, though they threw the kitchen sink at each other for 10days, in a VERY destructive way, for all involved...Trump panicked, changed goals, declared victory.. NO clean win whatever anyone says, in fact it's a war Trump can't win and can't end... it's been painful economically, that's for sure >>> The Iranians are most interested in delivering pain as directly to Trump as possible, it's the protracted war that Iran wanted, and the US and Israel are afraid of of it... you could argue it's now a crisis (less fierce in the short-term, but could last longer..), one can fear the goal from new radical Khamenei is to EXPULSE the U.S out of the Middle East.. IRAN WILL NOT accept ceasefire without guarantee another attack won't happen..>>> Crude up and down 30pct (totally nuts..really..), risk rallies again overnight, USD weaker as you would expect, This is really now calling for the end of U.S hegemony, dominance, even PETRODOLLAR's..., shorting USD again is what Mr Market will do... If Iran succeeds in pressing its advantage: “It will destroy the Trump presidency;  it will destroy the GOP for a generation; and it would finally end the entrapment of the United States by its junior geopolitical ally.” While Trump builds military coalitions and bombs the Middle East, China just made its move. Wang Yi announces: zero tariffs on 100% of African imports, effective May 1st JP Morgan on how Operation Epic Fury would end: "Resource risk will begin to outweigh increasingly marginal military gains and the conclusion to the conflict will come down to the three M’s : Munitions, Markets and Midterms ." OpenAI's massive Stargate data center canceled as firm can't reach terms with Oracle, operator struggles with reliability issues — Meta said to be interested in snatching excess capacity Trump Delivers Mixed Messages on the State of the Iran War | TIME Clearly this, G7 and Crude prices.. TACO'ed ..  Trump Advisers Urge Him to Find Iran Exit Ramp, Fearing Political Backlash. The president told reporters on Monday that he thought the war in Iran would be over ‘very soon’. (WSJ) The oil pipelines that could decide the Iran war | The Straits Times Kharg Island: Iran’s oil lifeline that Donald Trump has left untouched Trump says Iran’s new leader is “unacceptable.” China replies: the decision was made according to Iran’s Constitution, not Washington’s approval rating. That’s the real humiliation. Iranian Brigadier General Masoud Akhtari: “Because we destroyed the radars, Trump and Netanyahu are trapped in a slaughter house now in the Middle East. $150 per barrel of oil, which is coming will Cause global economic chaos”.... >>> Trump would like it to be over, the question is what does Iran really want...push all the way, get US out of ME... ? watch out.. Sumitomo Chemical declared force majeure yesterday, making it the fifth Asian chemical company in a single week . First Chandra Asri in Indonesia, then Yeochun NCC in South Korea. By March 5, Petrochemical Corporation of Singapore had declared force majeure on 1.1 million tons of ethylene capacity on Jurong Island. Aster followed a day later with its cracker running at half capacity. The root cause is the same for all five: naphtha, the feedstock these plants break down into the base chemicals behind plastics, rubber, and packaging. Asian steam crackers source most of their naphtha from the Middle East, and virtually all of it transits the Strait of Hormuz. When the Strait closed, all five lost their feedstock within days. Five force majeures in seven days. This is a massive disruption of the chemicals that hold the global economy together. Polymer prices are already up double digits. Everything downstream gets more expensive from here. China’s tariff-free trade offer boosts Africa’s global rise - CAJ News Africa Trump, Putin Talk of War and Peace as US Weighs Easing Russian Oil Sanctions Two Months for Gulf Oil Output to Fully Return After War Ends, Analyst Says Nice recap IMHO Sandeep Manudhane on X: "Iran War Update - - - 1) Trump's presser: Trump has chickened out completely, in just 10 days of Iran's not surrendering & fighting back. Personally, I don't think war is over. Trump tried pushing the responsibility to every adviser, as always. He realizes deep damage, and his" / X Clash Report on X: "Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi: They thought that in a matter of two or three days they could go for regime change and achieve a rapid, clean victory, but they failed. So I believe that Plan A was a failure. And now they are trying other plans, but all of them have https://t.co/1KBJBxcpPp " / X War Monitor on X: "Just a reminder that Iran’s new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei has lost the following people in this war: - His father: Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (killed in the opening strikes). - His mother: (Mentioned in multiple sources as killed in the same or related strikes). - His wife: https://t.co/TduX5QJ1QW " / X OpenAI's massive Stargate data center canceled as firm can't reach terms with Oracle, operator struggles with reliability issues — Meta said to be interested in snatching excess capacity | Tom's Hardware Google, Meta, and Oracle are on a $1 trillion borrowing spree | Fortune

G7 Finance ministers will discuss a joint release of petroleum from reserves co-ordinated by the IEA in an emergency meeting on Monday. Iran appears to be demanding the unconditional withdrawal of US forces from the Middle East, the end of American military presence in West Asia, and the unconditional surrender of Israel >>> Operation Epic Fury is in danger of turning into Operation Epic Failure Markets : WTI trades up to $115 overnight (down to $100 again on G7 chatters), over 30 Iranian oil depots Israel bombed on Saturday without warning Washington about the real scale, America's NatGas bounty, Global Bond market sell-off!..nowhere to hide.. (higher oil, higher inflation - no more cut - stagflation) , The White house says/wants a 4-6weeks conflict, the mechanism says 6months or more (ONE OF THEM IS CATASTROPHICALLY WRONG..), 'The Strait of Hormuz was not closed by mines, missiles, or warships. It was closed by seven insurance letters' - The war ends when the reinsurance market says it ends. Not when the White House says it ends >>> A REMINDER that nothing really works for any length of time.. with $100-125 WTI for the world economy, nothing..!, so due to markets hurting bigly.. TRUMP will somehow TACO and retreat (WHEN, today, next week, next months?), take troops out of ME, say he's won the war-declare victory, and the new Iranian leader has 40years reign in front of him courtesy of Trump.., U.S can then focus on something else, Cuba maybe, THE PRESSURE TO REOPEN HURMUZ will be huge from here, the economic price is enormous if this last much longer.. The USDollar should / will weaken from here, once the short-term 'risk-off bid' goes away.. Bond markets tumbled in Asia trading as an oil price shock prompted investors to price in higher inflation and deteriorating economic growth ... #stagflation Yields on US Treasuries rose +7bps and expectations for the Fed’s next quarter point rate cut have been scaled back to September #AMZN Amazon made their 2,847 engineers spend 8 months documenting every code pattern, every debugging workflow, every optimization trick. Then fed it all to AI. Then fired them.. Trump's decision to bomb Iran is now the greatest windfall to the Russian war effort on record. If it continues, it might save the Russian war economy.. G7 to discuss joint release of emergency oil reserves Iran war: Israel targets 'regime infrastructure' Live updates: Iran names Mojtaba Khamenei as new supreme leader, state media reports State Department urges Americans across Mideast to depart as strikes continue StockMarket.News on X: "BREAKING: The United States just told Israel "WTF." Over 30 Iranian oil depots Israel bombed on Saturday without warning Washington about the real scale. A senior official said plainly: "We don't think it was a good idea." Here's why this matters more than you think. Trump's https://t.co/8xo6e6C2Ob " / X DD Geopolitics on X: "🚨🇮🇷 BREAKING: Iran has struck Orot Rabin in Hadera, Israel's largest power station. Complete power outage reported in Tel Aviv. Orot Rabin generates 2,590 MW, roughly 19% of Israel's total electricity capacity. It sits on the Mediterranean coast, 45 km north of Tel Aviv, and https://t.co/l0dGtOTTZw " / X Trump demands Iran relent as US aims to calm energy markets Trump Says US May Target New Parts of Iran in Escalating War China Consumer Inflation Hits 3-Yr High on Holiday Surge, Producer Deflation Lingers (1) Actuarial Warfare: How Seven Insurance Letters Closed the World’s Most Critical Chokepoint and Why Markets Are Mispricing Duration by 300% The White House says 4 to 6 weeks. The mechanism says 6 to 18 months. One of them is catastrophically wrong . The entire global allocation framework depends on which. Nine days into Operation Epic Fury, the kinetic campaign is succeeding by every traditional military metric. Iranian air defences are 80% destroyed. Missile launches are down 86% from opening-day peaks. Forty-three warships sunk. Three thousand targets struck. Air superiority achieved in 48 hours. Oxford Economics projects intense strikes wrapping within 1 to 3 weeks, settlement attempts within 2 months. Trump’s press secretary has repeated the 4 to 6 week timeline three times. None of this matters for the question that actually determines global market pricing. The war ends when the reinsurance market says it ends. Not when the White House says it ends Furkan Gözükara on X: "The Ultimate Humiliation: Imagine having a multi-billion dollar military budget, setting up bases in Kuwait to project power, and then having Kuwaiti TV openly broadcast that they are the ones protecting you. A generational embarrassment for Washington. Expel the bases. https://t.co/D5v2nbHvFx " / X America’s natural-gas bounty is cushioning US markets from global shocks Amazon layoff March 2026: 100 employees from Robotics fired, company says ‘difficult but necessary’ - Technology News | The Financial Express U.S. labor market lost 92,000 jobs in February, marking an unexpected setback for the economy - CBS News Knall: UBS-Bigshot August Hatecke vor dem Aus – Inside Paradeplatz March 8, 2026 vote: the result from across Switzerland - SWI swissinfo.ch One in five million-pound homes selling at a loss Peak sold prices suffer significant drops as high taxes crush the market

Ali Larijani, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, just made a very worrying statement : "The war will end only when Iran's adversaries understand they no longer have the right to violate Iranian territory and agree to pay COMPENSATION for the damages caused."... Markets : WTI $100 nailed on, the real risk for global economy is $150 and for longer ( ALL ABOUT duration..for global economy..), markets tumble hard 10-20pct if ME troubles are prolonged for 2-3months let alone more, this IS the risk.. and PRIVATE CREDIT ! (the signs been there for few weeks, since Blue Owl..!!) is a BIG trouble , end of PETRODOLLAR decades upon us, with the closure of Hormuz.., recession calls will be on the increase this week..you can be sure of this! , now they been attacking desalination plants, this is terrible, horrible strategic decisions. . (Iran is 3% dependent on desalination - US allies in the region at 40-90%)...!!, Gulf countries as a whole are the second largest global fertilizer exporter, U.S logistics, data centres hit hard across ME (TECH economics weaker too..), China and Russia rammed into this war too.. >>> WTI crude trades just under $100 already, U.S economy losing jobs (net -142K job miss on Friday..), ''time to dust off 70s charts of two inflation surges and stagflation'' , Iran would appear to be prepared to make war last for 6months ( keep Hormuz shut for 90days..see below ), and hit HARD the whole US and allies financial system, economic war.., cheap drones destroying equipment worth 10's of millions or more...think about this...., 30years ago in Iraq war we used to see CNN and daily news and videos of the war, every detailed shown as US dominated Iraq war...these days we see hardly anything... nothing at all, nada...!!... why not...... weekend futures down just under 1pct and WTI seen around $96 How can war hit AI capex trade? Higher energy prices/power shortages, lower global GDP/demand, Helium and minerals shortages for semis, reducing GCC AI capex (~$150-200bn next 5y), budget shifts towards more popular expenditures, corporate spending cuts, etc../JPM... Blackrock manages $11 Trillion , that's 11,000 Billions of dollars, and they had to say NO to people who only wanted to withdraw (ONLY..) 2.5 billion dollars, think about this, and read it again.. Japan’s ambitious national quantum strategy is accelerating research and industrialisation Today only ~12.5% of loans (broadly syndicated) are trading at par. This number was 65% at the start of the year The US just suspended sanctions on Russian oil to help pay for the war with Iran.,... (114) Updates Iran war live: Israel hits Tehran oil depots; 2 killed in Saudi Arabia Middle East war live: Trump says he has not ruled out using special forces as investors brace for volatility Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ on X: "BREAKING: Yesterday I wrote that ships in the Persian Gulf were changing their transponders to broadcast “Chinese Owner” and “All Chinese Crew” to avoid Iranian attack. The ocean’s rules had changed. The new rules were written in Mandarin. There is now a 30,000 ton Chinese https://t.co/yqU94ECdVz " / X China pulse 🇨🇳 on X: "A minimum of 90 days of intellectual control over the Strait of Hormuz is necessary — says Iranian expert Khandouzi. According to him, on Monday, with the opening of global markets, we will see oil prices above $100. Control over the Strait of Hormuz must last at least 90 days https://t.co/zVJGITsfj7 " / X Are BlackRock and Blackstone the canaries in the coal mine for private credit? BlackRock isn't collapsing but here's what actually happened: investors tried to pull $1.2B from a $26B fund. BlackRock said no to half of them. Blackstone injected $400M of its own cash to cover exits. Blue Owl paused withdrawals entirely. The $1.8 trillion private credit industry is quietly showing cracks during a war, an oil spike, and a jobs miss. The timing is the story Mario Nawfal on X: "Ok things changed in the last few hours, and it’s not looking good for Trump Here's why: - Iran struck the Gulf countries hard tonight. I was not expecting that - The NYT just reported U.S. officials gave a closed door briefing to Congress estimating Iran still retains half" / X Is the nightmare scenario for global energy here? The war in Iran has caused the biggest disruption in oil production in history. Whether it becomes the long-feared “nightmare scenario” for energy markets (and the global economy) now depends on the duration of the conflict. Brian Allen on X: "🚨 The US just suspended sanctions on Russian oil to help pay for the war with Iran. Watch this exchange: BRENNAN: Russia was helping Iran. WRIGHT: Well, there’s been rumors of that. We don’t know if that’s true. BRENNAN: These Iranian drones have Russian parts. Russia has https://t.co/FmzVBkXKic " / X Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ on X: "Nine days of the most intensive air campaign since 2003 and Kharg Island has not been touched. Kharg is a small rocky island 25 kilometers off Iran’s southern coast. It handles roughly two million barrels per day. Ninety percent of Iran’s crude oil exports flow through its https://t.co/JbGmg9eQhj " / X What is force majeure? QatarEnergy invokes clause after halting LNG production - CNBC TV18 Many more 'force majeur' out there Mikkel Rosenvold on X: "Attacking desalination plants is NOT a front the US wants to open. Horrible, horrible strategic decision Iran is 3% dependent on desalination - US allies in the region at 40-90% https://t.co/CtJEL0Vw8i " / X Singapore Faces Higher Power Bills as Qatar LNG Shutdown Disrupts Supply - Bloomberg Inside Japan’s growing quantum ecosystem Ed Conway on X: "🎥IRAN WAR PRIMER Six days on from the start of this war, what have we learnt about the economic consequences? Here's our latest primer, covering: 1. Why gas prices are up so much more than oil 2. The ticking timebomb facing Gulf oil producers 3. It's not just oil/gas - we need https://t.co/nYY7cEuE9J " / X

Markets : Crude UP, ( Production suspended at Iraq's largest oil field - Shafaq,. but increased supply from other producers) + Hormuz 'shut', China manuf index fell to 49 in Feb, Nvidia, Amazon temporarily close Dubai offices, KOSPI limit down (wha does up in a straight line 50% or more, with 3 or 3x leveraged ETF's... can come crashing too..), As US stocks began paring back their deepest losses on Tuesday, it looked as if traders were again starting to bet that President Donald Trump would find a way to contain the fallout from another crisis he unleashed (IMHO you should be careful with this view., Trump says US government will backstop war insurance for all shipping in the Persian Gulf...HOW ?... ), US launches military operations in Ecuador !, Ray Dalio sends harsh warning on Bitcoin >>> overall sounds a bit like a circus from the US Admin (Trump..) and that they really underestimated Iran, which is raging a 'total war' across ME.. >>> stay defensive, await opportunities to come to you, whatever goes on early afternoon, maybe be totally different 12hours later, it'll be bumpy for a while... >> higher vol = reduction of risk which brings new opportunities Iran says only Chinese ships can pass through the Strait of Hormuz , calling it a “gesture of thanks” for Beijing’s support. All other vessels are banned, and Tehran warns any unauthorized crossing will be met with military action >>> trying to bring in China and Russia into this war.. which is obviously unsettling to say the least! Trump’s new defense plan quietly creates a National Guard “response force” — trained for crowd control and civil unrest — deployable across all 50 states by April 2026..really! >>> Epstein files drop, names, war starts, now this..why..?..>>> building an infrastructure to never leave.. Deeply concerning that military commanders are framing the Iran war as “God’s plan” and invoking Armageddon in official briefings. Service members swear an oath to the Constitution — not to any religion! Trump said he’ll “cut off all trade with Spain” after the country denied access to its military bases for his bombing campaign against Iran. Madrid said the US must respect international law Canada just publicly rebuked the United States and Israel : “The United States and Israel acted without engaging the United Nations or consulting allies — including Canada.” Velina Tchakarova on X: "The Strait of Hormuz has become the most visible Cold War 2.0 fault line in history right now. Here’s why what just happened matters. Iran declared the strait closed to all international shipping, with one explicit exemption: Chinese and Russian vessels only, citing Beijing and" / X Iran headlines market turbulence and options - a practical map of what to trade | Saxo Elizabeth Warren Says She's Worried After Leaving Trump Administration's Classified Iran Briefing: There Is 'No Plan' - Benzinga Israel, Iran continue attacks as war enters its fifth day, engulfs region | Israel-Iran conflict News | Al Jazeera US launches military operations in Ecuador - POLITICO Trump threatens to halt US trade with Spain over military bases, defence spending | Reuters China's factory activity slumps more than expected in February as holiday disrupts production Iran war: Amazon, Google, Nvidia close offices, help stuck workers (1) U.S. Troops Were Told Iran War Is for “Armageddon,” Return of Jesus Billionaire Ray Dalio sends harsh warning on Bitcoin “Existential risk” – Why scientists are racing to define consciousness | ScienceDaily Fresnillo stuns market with highest dividend payout in its history – The Armchair Trader Mahmood to stop study visas from four countries due to 'abuse' Psychology says the 1960s and 70s accidentally produced one of the most emotionally durable generations in modern history — not through better parenting but through benign neglect that forced children to self-regulate, problem-solve, and develop emotional calluses that modern comfort has made nearly impossible to grow

Markets : U.S calls for all US citizens to evacuate the region.., Joint declaration of  President Macron and  Chancellor Friedrich Merz, US 'stonewalling' requests by Gulf states to replenish interceptors, KOSPI reopens -8%, Embassy in Riyadh, air base in Bahrain: Full list of US facilities in Middle East targeted in fresh drone attacks today (Thread), The Strait of Hormuz is a military problem - but above all, it's an insurance issue. And it's worsening, Saudi ground forces have entered Bahrain to crush the uprising as they did during the 2011 Bahrain uprising, Amazon says drone strikes damaged 3 facilities in UAE and Bahrain, France offers to deploy nuclear deterrent across Europe for first time, seems Iran was mightily underestimated... >>> Blackstone flagship private credit fund hit with wave of redemptions, 100% of insider trades are a SELL - still ( Insiders continue to dump stocks at a record pace since the pandemic), EU NatGas specifically weighing on european stock markets !, US manufacturing grew, input costs soared before Iran attack, EURO should move lower in tandem, USD stays bid (risk-off), remain super defensive, usual winners and losers during such times, volatility will bring opportunities, prepare! A Saudi official told Al Jazeera that the US has abandoned the Gulf states, focusing its defense systems on protecting Israel and leaving these countries at the mercy of Iranian missiles and drones, despite the presence of American military bases in their territories A German lawmaker who oversees the country’s parliamentary intelligence committee warned that Iran could try to carry out attacks in Europe-NYT >>> if Iran is ready to bomb all Gulf states, it can also activate sleeper cells to carry out domestic terror in Europe or elsewhere...be vigilant!! Iran : Trump should be very worried. This is not a centralized leadership they can assassinate or decapitate anymore…. it's a fragmented, resilient network that keeps firing even without a head. Escalation could get unpredictable fast /THREAD Blackstone flagship private credit fund hit with wave of redemptions Investors pull net $1.7bn out of vehicle over first quarter as industry strains intensify If Europe no longer fully trusts the US security guarantee, the global order is shifting European gas prices jumped near 50% after Qatar Energy halts LNG production Iran war live: Iran warns will attack ships trying to pass Hormuz; drones hit US embassy in Riyadh | Reuters EU Natural Gas - Price - Chart - Historical Data - News Embassy in Riyadh, air base in Bahrain: Full list of US facilities in Middle East targeted in fresh drone attacks today France offers to deploy nuclear deterrent across Europe for first time US urges citizens to immediately leave over a dozen Middle East countries | Conflict News | Al Jazeera Amazon says drone strikes damaged 3 facilities in UAE and Bahrain US 'stonewalling' requests by Gulf states to replenish interceptors, sources say | Middle East Eye Next phase of Iran war ‘will be even more punishing,' Rubio says Embassy of France in the U.S. on X: "Joint declaration of 🇫🇷 President Macron and 🇩🇪 Chancellor Friedrich Merz. https://t.co/VKMPMRFP3P " / X Marco Rubio on Capitol Hill: 'Hardest Hits Yet To Come' Against Iran | Military.com Iran Conflict: Insurance Clubs to End Persian Gulf War-Risk Coverage for Ships - Bloomberg "...More than half of the world’s largest maritime insurance clubs will cease covering war risks for ships entering the Persian Gulf ..." Blackstone flagship private credit fund hit with wave of redemptions JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon warns U.S. economy could soon 'deteriorate' A 'fight about vibes' drove the Pentagon's breakup with Anthropic US manufacturing grew, input costs soared before Iran attack - The Business Times Beefeater on X: "A Saudi official told Al Jazeera that the US has abandoned the Gulf states, focusing its defense systems on protecting Israel and leaving these countries at the mercy of Iranian missiles and drones, despite the presence of American military bases in their territories. According https://t.co/PiRZZssbvR " / X How Data Centers actually Work 6mins video Liz Webster on X: "🆘 Significant moment. If Europe no longer fully trusts the US security guarantee, the global order is shifting. Macron floating a European 🇪🇺 nuclear umbrella signals strain in the transatlantic alliance. In that world, Britain’s security and economic future lies closer https://t.co/WjZQW6HFrA " / X UK Stock Market News: Fresnillo, Intertek, Greggs UBS pfuscht mit Hypothek – Inside Paradeplatz P.S trying our best to check and be real, but there is obviously plenty of AI disinformation (videos) around