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SPX500 : rallied on 6th November and closed 5'930...same as today Trump adopting a ''role of global bully'', whether this is purely transactional or real, we shall see, with economic as well as military threats... and he had his first dig at the FED wanting lower interest rates (FOMC minutes tonight will say differently.. ISM was super strong yesterday) , and NO mention of #BTC >>> crude higher, UST yields higher, USdollar higher.. Treasury auction last night, draws highest Yield since 2007 in bond selloff How top Fed bank cop's resignation limits Trump's options US Govt interest debt payments are 20% of tax revenues , real job growth ? : US government jobs hit a RECORD 23.5 million in November. Government jobs 18-month moving average growth hit nearly 3%, the fastest pace in at least 45 YEARS Maga vs the billionaires. Trump’s fragile coalition is already splintering over immigration, #MAGA believing all they see on X, is backfiring.. Recap : #UST : FED cut rates by 1% since Sep 2024 and 10y rates are 1% higher >> which is HIGHLY unusual , less demand from foreign investors, or indeed the cut was not justified? the market has clearly spoken, something ain't right, and we have a HUGE amount of debt to roll across the world in 2025, a combination of all these factors are the reasons, most likely >>> EITHER YIELDS GO UP still to satisfy bond investors, bongivilantes etc (which would be highly damaging for the economy)... or the USDollar weakens.. I'll take the latter (eventually - trouble is the choice in other currencies is not exactly inviting! -- sell some 'crowded, well owned positions, take some profit where you can and have some cash on the side in Q1 ( The Nasdaq just posted its single largest daily volume in HISTORY with 13.4 BILLION shares traded yday, big money selling rallies?..) ... USD positioning is very long $$$ since late last year, must keep an eye on short-term techs/momentum.. Is this allowed ?..Bank of America downgrades Tesla due to high valuation and risks to EV maker’s strategy China has expanded the scope of a consumer goods trade-in scheme and will give more subsidies for digital purchases this year, in an effort to revive sluggish domestic demand, an official policy document showed on Wednesday, eq down fairly sharply JPMorgan Chase is going full return-to-office How Michael Barr's resignation limits Trump's Fed appointment powers United States - Interest Payments (% Of Revenue) - 2025 Data 2026 Forecast 1972-2023 Historical ISM Services PMI rises more than expected in December | Seeking Alpha No rate cut possible on this... China's economic stimulus measures since September | Reuters Craig Shapiro on X: "Trump Press Conference Summary (in my view): He is breaking the 75+ year deal from the post-Bretton Woods World which was to provide military assistance to RoW and secure stable and safe trade lanes in exchange for using the USD and re-investing excess reserves in USTs." / X Trump Escalates threats vs all its neighbours, Greenland, Canada, Panama, UK and even Danemark/EU : that some entrance with his 1st speech as almost new President - Trump declined to rule out using military or economic coercion  as he detailed plans to seek greater US influence over Greenland, Canada, and the Panama Canal during a press conference Tuesday.  A military confrontation over his desire to win US control over Greenland or the Panama Canal, he said that he was “not going to commit to that.” “I can’t assure you on either of those two, but I can say this, we need them for economic security,” Trump said at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida. ''absorbing Canada “would really be something,” addressing his concerns over US military assistance and trade deficits with its northern neighbour. “We’ve been good neighbours, but we can’t do it forever,” Trump said also says NATO member states should increase their defence spending to "5%, not 2%" "They can all afford it." President-elect Trump press conference: FULL SPEECH that was quite something Macron says Musk is backing a ‘new international reactionary movement’ – POLITICO Macron irks allies, left with Africa 'forgot to say thank you' jibe Maga vs the billionaires FT article - well worth a read, and IMHO all that matters is the Bessent's plan 3-3-3..the rest is noise for X followers Scott Bessent's 3-3-3 plan: what to know | Fox Business Meta shelves fact-checking in policy reversal ahead of Trump administration | Reuters Meta ditches fact-checking for Elon Musk-style community notes Little bit of history : When The US Government Defaulted On Its Bonds | Armstrong Economics On Bubble Watch Podcast : On January 2, 2000, Howard Marks published his first memo to garner any reader response, bubble.com , calling attention to excesses he detected in the market for tech and internet stocks. His newest memo revisits the subject of bubbles. Howard expresses his view that they’re more a state of mind than a quantitative calculation and describes bubble thinking as irrational, often underlaid by a widespread belief that ‘‘this time is different.’’ Rather than opining on whether we’re in a bubble, Howard lists the signs he sees today and suggests how you might think about them . . . just as he did 25 years ago It looks like JPMorgan Chase is going full return-to-office South Korea's Yoon faces second arrest attempt in fortified compound - The Japan Times The Putinisation of central Europe Austria could soon get its most extreme chancellor since the 1940s Watch: Pacific Palisades wildfires rage through Los Angeles neighbourhood destroying homes Pretty dire situation with the raging #PalisadesFire

President-elect Donald Trump’s aides are exploring tariff plans that would be applied to every country but only cover critical imports, three people familiar with the matter said — a key shift from his plans during the 2024 presidential campaign >>> not as fierce as initially mentioned by Trump... the 50% tariffs headlines are for the MAGA clan, now as usual things watered down, the REAL plan is what #Bessant says 3/3/3... >>> caviat : back in 2017/18 those articles from WSJ or WAPO were often wrong and mistimed so beware a flip flop, and nothing is mentioned about Mexico or Canada >>> and not too long thereafter... Trump 'denied' that he will pare back his tariff policy (you don't want to a soft chat before negotiations..), having said all this the USD is running a little bit weaker still on the WAPO story (positioning has been very long USD since Q4 - EURUSD chart, but other pairs look similar.. ), USDCNH though still on highs (local yields..), risk overall did well on the back of the soft tariffs news, chip sector on highs #NVDA etc Jeff Bezos says everything on Earth is better than it was 50 years ago—except for 1 thing BoJ : Two or three rate increases are expected in 2025 from the Bank of Japan, possibly taking the benchmark to 1% for the first time in three decades FT-China rushes to reassure investors as equities and renminbi fall #XAGUSD moved higher on the Trump tariffs news yesterday, back above 200dma $30 Why Does Warren Buffett Hold So Much Cash? Headache for the ECB as German inflation rises from 2.2 to 2.6%, core is 3.1% We cannot, as Europeans, let Russia win in Ukraine. It's about our security and the international order. The question is how to support Ukraine long-term, so they can resist and eventually negotiate a lasting peace. No solution can be made without Ukrainians, and no quick fix will serve Europe or the US," Macron said. Switzerland's controversial "burqa ban" along with new laws to combat child marriages, boost renewable energy and stop big banks from going bankrupt are all coming into force on January 1, 2025 Indonesia Enters BRICS As Full Member : How An Expanding Bloc Benefits India As expected, Trudeau quit after 9 Years in power with Liberals in revolt, Carney in frame US corporate bankruptcies hit 14-year high as interest rates take toll Consumer companies such as Party City hit by persistent inflation and weak spending After historic year, the Bank of Japan ambles into 2025 - The Japan Times Trump aides ready ‘universal’ tariff plans — with one key change German inflation rises more than expected to 2.9% in December Macron urges Ukraine for 'realistic' expectations, warns about Iran in Middle East China rushes to reassure investors as equities and renminbi fall Indonesia Enters BRICS As Full Member: How An Expanding Bloc Benefits India Jeff Bezos: Everything on Earth is getting better—except the environment Who is donating to Donald Trump's inaugration? Trump's team wants to narrow down his universal tariff plans In Switzerland, New Year brings 'burqa ban' and pension hikes - SWI swissinfo.ch And, The Swiss VAT exemption limit for purchases made abroad was halved from CHF300 to CHF150 at the start of this year Nationwide strike for new elections announced in Georgia Bill Kristol on X: "John Bolton on Trump's plans: "It’ll make the 'Saturday Night Massacre' look like a tea party because the number of enemies he wants to prosecute is so large...Will they then be fired?" Watch, listen to, or read the transcript of the whole conversation: https://t.co/bRRND0AizQ https://t.co/ntiZBx1JdB " / X Michael Pettis on X: "1/16 Barry Naughton: "Japan spent almost a decade trying to painlessly restructure a financial system that had suffered a huge reduction in the value of its assets. And now China seems to be repeating some parts of that." https://t.co/BWZYgZyjRI " / X Why Does Warren Buffett Hold So Much Cash? Nvidia unveils robot training tech, new gaming chips and Toyota deal | Reuters Shares ATH's again yesterday Samsung Electronics banks on AI to outpace global growth in smartphones, home appliances Tricky..debt.. Can Boeing Be Fixed? Aerospace Leaders Offer a Repair Manual - WSJ US corporate bankruptcies hit 14-year high as interest rates take toll Nippon Steel CEO doubles down on pledge to acquire U.S. Steel Wall Street Confident Gold Will Continue 2024 Rally | CCN.com China's biggest shipping line Cosco added to US military blacklist | World News - Business Standard Credit Suisse Links to Nazi-Era Accounts Expand in Investigation - SWI swissinfo.ch Knew it was bad a long while ago ! as often discussed with many of you, keeps on giving though, good grief, even worse than many been thinking

Week ahead : FED minutes, NFP Friday to provide first labor statistic, inflation will be more about what Trump actually does on tariffs, and when, can0t have his cake and eat it ! namely reduce immigration by 10mio, introducing beautiful tariffs and have lower inflation...choices will have to be made >>> after the big democratic year in 2024, many 'muddled through', now comes the real volatility, first Trudeau to go, Trump will have to deliver his promises, Musk will only bring more vol (everywhere..), German snap election, Austria, Slovakia, Ukraine, Africa and Middle east region now sees the impact as choices have to be made both economically and geopolitically UST 10's 4.62%, while Chinese equivalent hits 1.6%, will China's problems - deflation, export themselves to the U.S, Europe.. ? Europe depletes Gas Inventories at fastest rate in 6 years ahead of winter Reserves at Fed sink below $3 Trillion to the lowest since 2020 Musk does U-turn on Britain's anti-immigration Farage after disagreement Canadian PM Justin Trudeau expected to announce resignation in coming days BOJ’s Ueda sends fresh reminder to bankers on raising rates Morgan Stanley discusses potential macro surprises for 2025, one of them being a possible revival of demand for US Treasuries.  It notes that banks see a compelling case for Treasuries due to positive carry, and pension funds may move into Treasuries from equities as they are fully funded, allowing them to de-risk US set for IPO comeback as private equity firms seek to offload holdings FT - Evan Medeiros of Georgetown reports that Xi and China are ready for Trump and his nationalist/ protectionists policies this time around . China isn't alone -- the EU also spent the fall gaming out a second Trump term BOJ’s Ueda Sends Fresh Reminder to Bankers on Raising Rates US set for IPO comeback as private equity firms seek to offload holdings 2035: An Allocator Looks Back Over the Last 10 Years Brad Setser on X: "Evan Medeiros of Georgetown reports that Xi and China are ready for Trump and his nationalist/ protectionists policies this time around. China isn't alone -- the EU also spent the fall gaming out a second Trump term. 1/ https://t.co/B6TKwgm0CX " / X Unemployed Office Workers Are Having a Harder Time Finding New Jobs Europe Depletes Gas Inventories At Fastest Rate in Six Years Ahead of Winter Let's hope we don't get a super cold and long winter then US Bank Reserves Fell Below $3 Trillion to the Lowest Since 2020 - Bloomberg Musk does U-turn on Britain's anti-immigration Farage after disagreement the love story didn't last long, just goes to show how 'volatile' that man is.. (Musk that is..) Nigel Farage responds to Elon Musk ’Tommy Robinson is not right for Reform and I never sell out my principles’ Canadian PM Justin Trudeau expected to announce resignation in coming days, media reports How a Gorilla devoured democracy in Slovakia – POLITICO Austria news: Far-right could be asked to form a government | CTV News Foreign phone sales plunge 47% in China, spelling trouble for Apple MicroStrategy announces that it is targeting a capital raise of up to $2 billion through one or more public underwritten offering of perpetual preferred stock which will be senior to our class A common stock – t he purpose of the Offering is to allow MicroStrategy to continue to strengthen its balance sheet and acquire more bitcoin. The Offering is expected to occur, if at all, in the first quarter of 2025. However, the decision whether to proceed with and consummate the Offering is in MicroStrategy's sole discretion and is subject to market and other conditions – Briefing Boeing door plug accident: Manufacturer still faces tough recovery and a huge pile of debt

Everyone can see political uncertainty/geopolitical risk IS on the increase, the year after after all those democratic votes.. yet markets have remained benign in terms of vol... as they expect that no 'extreme' positions will be taken by various folks in charge, from Trump to France, Germany, UKR/Russia, China and the middle east... >>> the market volatility come now in 2025 (risk), after few months of various governments trying to muddle through..without results (Germany, France, China, US..let's see now..), this with 10y UST yields up 100bps last 3months and a USDollar on multi year highs, main equity indices have 'peaked' as MAG7 showing signs of loosing momentum, recall all the various signs that underneath ''not is all well'', China 10y yields hitting all-time-lows at 1.63% and Crude is on 2months highs (with EURO weakness, if persistent, could cause a big problem for ECB cuts going forward/sticky inflation) 2025 Outlook for the Magnificent 7: ''The Easy Money Party might be over'' & the Stock Market will (have to) care / Thread below, couldn't agree more overall, and... yet...Everyone is bullish : Here are your 2025 S&P 500 forecasts Oppenheimer: 7100 Wells Fargo: 7007 Deutsche Bank: 7000 SocGen: 6750 BMO: 6700 HSBC: 6700 BofA: 6666 Barclays: 6600 RBC: 6600 Citi: 6500 Goldman: 6500 JPMorgan: 6500 Morgan Stanley: 6500 UBS: 6400 BNP Paribas: 6300 Cantor: 6000 Is anyone bullish Europe? BofA's Global Fund Manager Survey is at one of the highest US overweights vs. Europe since they started asking the question a quarter century ago The term premium for 10-year Treasuries has increased 75 basis points (bps) over the past three months, see chart below. In other words, 10-year rates have increased an additional 75 bps more than what can be justified by changing Fed expectations, which is likely a reflection of emerging fears in markets about US fiscal sustainability China's Ministry of Commerce (MOC) on Thursday added 28 U.S. entities to the country's export control list to safeguard national security and interests and fulfill international obligations, including non-proliferation commitments Tesla failed to meet its EV sales goals and Wall Street's expectations The US deficit as a percentage of GDP is projected to average 6.3% over the next 10 years. This comes after the deficit reached 6.7% in 2024, the largest since 2021, totally unsustainable.. #USD #duration #longend #UST US credit card serious delinquency rates for subprime borrowers just hit ~22%, the highest since 2010. Meanwhile, delinquency rates on commercial office loans are now at 11%, ABOVE the 2012 peak, reality is this looks like a #debtcrisis FYI - this is useful for investors - Trade inspiration & market insights | Saxo Bank China imposes export controls on 28 US entities - China.org.cn The Kobeissi Letter on X: "This is concerning: The US deficit as a percentage of GDP is projected to average 6.3% over the next 10 years. This comes after the deficit reached 6.7% in 2024, the largest since 2021. Such elevated deficits have never happened outside of wars and significant economic crises. https://t.co/oUhAZ9N5JL " / X The Kobeissi Letter on X: "This is absolutely insane: Heading into 2025, there are now 100 TIMES more assets in leveraged long funds than leveraged short funds. Over the last 8 weeks, this ratio has DOUBLED, exceeding the record high set in December 2021. Is the bull trade too crowded? (a thread)" / X if you are a contrarian!...you'll like this Bank of Japan owns ~80% of the country's ETFs and 7% of the entire Japanese stock market, according to Morningstar and the Tokyo Stock Exchange data. Moreover, the BoJ holds ~55% of the Japanese government bonds.. Huge distortion...this is not normal, but then again not particularly new news...this is what 'they' do Michael Pettis on X: "1/2 This has become the most common (and probably strongest) argument among older mainstream academic economists against my claim that tariffs are just one of many policies (like devaluation, interest-rate repression and wage suppression) whose impacts depend..." / X Apple launches holiday sale in China as competition heats up Migros: Keine Chance gegen Lidl und Aldi – Inside Paradeplatz Dan Niles on X: "2025 Outlook for the Magnificent 7: The Easy Money Party Might be Over & the Stock Market Seems to Care A year ago in my outlook for 2024, I said on CNBC and wrote on January 2nd: “Looking into 2024, we believe the S&P could gain another 20% (10% from earnings growth and another" / X Musk’s Starlink to Provide Space-Based Mobile Service in Ukraine Tesla's Q4 sales fall short of its EV goals, Wall Street's forecast How many billions Big Tech spent on AI data centers in 2024 Belgium to ban disposable vapes in 2025 The Banker No One Saw Coming ...working with him, we knew back in the day that he was specially good! well done Sir! #JuliusBaer Morgan Stanley to leave sector climate coalition French red wine in sharp decline as tastes change among young drinkers More competition, more affordable wines out there..

Going to be the 2025 issue for markets Wall Street is concerned about an inflation resurgence in 2025, The debt ceiling is back on the table for 2025, US credit card defaults jump to highest level since 2010, UST10y 100bps up to 4.6% since Sep Fed cut.. Equity funding costs for the January, Feb, and March futures contracts have collapsed, beware of crazy #Musk related valuations since Nov election going into Q1 2025 - the markets owns a lot of Mag7 too going into next year, too much concentration of risk IMHO U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield From 3.62% to 4.62% since the Fed started the latest rate-cutting (monetary policy easing) cycle in September. The U.S. 30-year mortgage rate has moved from 6.5% to 7.3%. How unusual is this price action? >>> Never in the last 40 years has the 10-year Treasury risen more quickly after the Fed started a rate cutting cycle SOFR spiked to 4.53% on Friday and the SOFR-Fed Funds spiking to approx 20bps, we may end up surpassing the quarter-turn stress in September/October >>> US equity funds saw a -$35.3 BILLION net outflow last week, the largest weekly outflow since December 2022. This is a sharp contrast to the ~$14 billion of weekly net INFLOWS seen since Fed interest rate cuts began US public debt has hit a record $36.2 TRILLION. Over the last 5 years, it has jumped by a MASSIVE $14 trillion , now over 120% of US GDP, near the most on record Elon and Vivek are saying native born Americans are not good enough or smart enough to hire for tech companies, and Donald Trump is silent >>> is MAGA still alive ? Under the covers the market has been getting dumped all month. Folks seem to think the economy runs on 7-8 stocks now. The All In mentality to 7 names is a dangerous game. Folks better home this "AI growth" materializes, otherwise a deeper correction looming >>> The S&P 500 is down 1.0% in December but most of the sectors have been in a carnage: Energy -10.7% Materials -9.9% Real Estate -8.9% Utilities -7.6% Industrial -7.0% Healthcare -5.3% Financials -4.6% Consumer Staples -4.0% A Looming Threat to Bitcoin: The Risk of a Quantum Hack and a BBG investigation reveals a strong link between proximity to AI data centers and higher levels of distorted power, which can damage home appliances and aging grid equipment Russia-linked cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland ‘was loaded with spying equipment’ Tokyo inflation accelerates, Supporting Case for BOJ Rate Hike China Secretly Snaps Up More Gold, Positions for Its Greater Global Role #Musk troubles ahead with Trump #MAGA questioned >> watch out/beware sharp correction in #BTC #MSTR #TSLA correction ! Wall Street is concerned about an inflation resurgence in 2025 Repo Rates Rise Even After Fed Adjusted Tools to Rein In Volatility - Bloomberg The debt ceiling is back on the table for 2025. Here's what happens next. US credit card defaults jump to highest level since 2010 G7 countries debt-to-GDP ratios in 2024: Japan: 255% Italy: 139% United States: 123% France: 112% Canada: 105% United Kingdom: 104% Germany: 64% and rates structure is higher, debt isn't free anymore...au contraire! Tokyo Inflation Accelerates, Supporting Case for BOJ Rate Hike - Bloomberg Michael J. Kramer on X: "Equity funding costs for the January, Feb, and March futures contracts have collapsed. https://t.co/ReATQmX8vM " / X Mohamed A. El-Erian on X: "Per the @FT: “Global corporate debt sales soared to a record $8tn this year, as companies took advantage of red-hot demand from investors to accelerate their borrowing plans. Issuance of corporate bonds and leveraged loans climbed by more than a third from 2023 to $7.93tn, https://t.co/lJ6y7rGZM9 " / X A step in the right direction - Nov 2024 | Investor | Kepler Trust Intelligence China Secretly Snaps Up More Gold, Positions for Its Greater Global Role Global Markets Investor on X: "⚠️CHINESE DEBT SIZE IS ABSOLUTELY MIND-BLOWING⚠️ China's debt-to-GDP ratio hit a MASSIVE 366% in Q1 2024, a new record. To put this differently, for 1 unit of GDP the Chinese economy has produced 3.66 units of debt burden China has a huge debt problem👇 https://t.co/p2MVIUnuuq " / X AI Power Needs Threaten Billions in Damages for US Households and E.Cantoni on X: "Why Quantum Computing Is Here to Trigger The End Of The Crypto Bitcoin Bubble🧵 1/10 NEW TECHNOLOGIES ARE SIMPLY MADE TO BREAK OLD BOUNDARIES The Breakage of Public-Key Cryptography. Bitcoin as most cryptocurrencies rely on elliptic curve cryptography (ECC) for securing https://t.co/azmallvSW7 " / X Donald Trump Shares View on H-1B Visas Amid MAGA Civil War - Newsweek Narco-a-lago: Money Laundering at the Trump Ocean Club, Panama | Global Witness Hell of a story ! Paul Mason on X: "Every stunt Russia has pulled since the US election feels to me like a pre-programmed sequence: the cable cutting, the MRBM attack; destabilisation of Romania, Moldova and now Transnistria 1/ ... hard to know the purpose without intel..." / X Russia-linked cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland ‘was loaded with spying equipment’ :: Lloyd's List Emil Kastehelmi on X: "During the past year, there have been several attacks against critical infrastructure near Finland. Russians are being increasingly apparent in their will to escalate the situation in the Baltic Sea. These events must be set in the right context to understand why they happen. 1/ https://t.co/9VgJ3o4yBH " / X Yahoo Finance on X: "CEO exits hit a record high in 2024, according to Challenger, Gray, & Christmas. "I think boards are really trigged to shareholder pressures," says Harvard Business School executive fellow Bill George. https://t.co/P71pOQCru5 " / X A Looming Threat to Bitcoin: The Risk of a Quantum Hack CryptoQuant CEO Assures Bitcoin Is Safe from Quantum Risks | Live Bitcoin News Jimmy Carter dies: Biden and Trump lead tributes to 'extraordinary' former president - BBC News Iran regime under 'immense pressure' amid incoming Trump admin policies, regional losses, economic woes | Fox News Michael Pettis on X: "Bloomberg reports that Beijing is urging local governments to offer handouts to people struggling with the cost of living. Depending on how much is transferred and how the transfers are funded, these are the kinds of policies that could result in a boost in total consumption." / X

Trump bristles at Musk’s rocketing profile as Dems play on the president-elect’s vanity, "He's [Elon] not going to be president, that I can tell you. I’m safe. You know why? He can’t be, he wasn’t born in this country." Trump talked a lot about reducing the U.S debt, and yet he was pressing House Reps to vote to suspend the debt ceiling for the next 2 years...to run an unlimited amount of debt...nothing is changing , after all he is a debt man...some sort of debt crisis looms, watch long-end UST's #duration Trump found out about Panama Federal Reserve’s flip-flops risk undermining US exceptionalism . The central bank’s highly reactive policy approach of recent years amplifies financial volatility Pentagon report says China prepping Taiwan invasion. PLA launched large-scale amphibious operations to support ‘invasion scenario' Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has a cash position of $325 Billion, or 30% of its total AUM , which is Buffett's largest allocation to cash since in 35 years European stocks are underperforming the S&P 500 by the largest amount in history, Foreign investors have piled into US stocks like never before: Foreign investors now allocate a record 59% of their assets to US equities 74% of world central banks have cut rates this year, the biggest share since 2021 Qatar warns it will halt gas supplies to Europe if fined under EU due diligence law “I’m not bluffing” in LNG threat , Qatari Energy Minister Saad Sherida al-Kaabi-FT #BTC correction coming ? money supply charts say so It’s true that Trump aides have told Europeans they want defence spending at 4-5% (which US doesn’t do itself). But it’s also true that they’ve said privately that they’ll “settle” for 3.5% . It’s not exactly the world’s most advanced negotiating strategy? Trump bristles at Musk’s rocketing profile as Democrats play on the president-elect’s vanity How long is this going to last ? Federal Reserve’s flip-flops risk undermining US exceptionalism The Kobeissi Letter on X: "The global Fed pivot continues: 74% of world central banks have cut rates this year, the biggest share since 2021. The Bank of Canada has cut rates 5 times by 175 basis points, marking the most aggressive rate cut cycle among major central banks. The European Central Bank and https://t.co/3lCB4YeEjl " / X Qatar warns it will halt gas supplies to Europe if fined under EU due diligence law – POLITICO Donald Trump threatens to retake Panama Canal and claims US is being 'ripped off' | US News | Sky News Why .. Trump Companies Accused of Tax Evasion in Panama — ProPublica Trump says Putin wants a meeting as soon as possible about Ukraine war Michael Pettis on X: "1/6 This may be a tad optimistic: "Just as a single decisive move can energize a chess game, China's latest initiative to address local government debt risks marks a crucial step in revitalizing the growth prospects." https://t.co/472hoQF8io " / X Elon Musk backs AfD to 'save Germany' Elon Musk's curious fixation with Britain - BBC News Prime Minister of Italy: Threat from Russia is much more far reaching than we realise – Reuters | Ukrainska Pravda Biden signs bill that averts government shutdown (3) Bravos Research on X: "WARNING: Home prices are contracting sharply These levels were only seen 4 times since 1964: - 1970 - 1990 - 2008 - 2020 All 4 ended in sharp economic downturns https://t.co/8WIN8raQGr " / X Pentagon report says China prepping Taiwan invasion | Taiwan News | Dec. 20, 2024 18:48 Nissan-Honda merger: Japanese automakers announce plans to merge | AP News The Kobeissi Letter on X: "Is Bitcoin overdue for a correction? In the past, #Bitcoin prices have followed global money supply with ~10 week lag. As global money supply hit a new record of $108.5 trillion in October, Bitcoin prices reached an all-time high of $108,000. Over the last 2 months, however, https://t.co/i80ym4Wu7F " / X Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau losing support within his party: MPs

US government shutdown looms after House rejects Donald Trump-backed funding bill. Musk Draws First Blood With Spending Bill Bombshell . Billionaire leads rebellion against bill aimed at keeping government funded through March, President Musk? SPX500, 50dma broke below on Thursday (5950), 100dma is around 5775 and the 200dma, which has not been tested since October 2023 is around 5575, keep an eye on this and equivalent is these 'corrective-liquidation risk' times, let's just say the bulls binged on 'momo fun', there might be a slight hangover in these markets, so be careful out there (with the usual lack of liquidities, if/when they are really needed, increase in vols etc, note that we have 'quadruple witching expiries today' >>> HIGHER VOLS = reduce risk exposures..and watch out for key tech levels now, its all that matters, don't own what the whole market owns..feels a little like Dec 2018 Markets now expecting '1 and a little bit' FED cut in 2025, expectations were for 4+ FED cuts back in September UST 10y yields are up 100 bps over the same period that the FOMC has cut by 100 bps China 1y bond yields 1% 'Tariffs all the way': Trump says European Union must buy U.S. oil and gas in trade ultimatum El Salvador has received a $3.5 billion financing package from the IMF. The agreement? Ditch Bitcoin. Reverse having Bitcoin as legal tender and delete their Chivo Bitcoin wallet From Brazil to South Korea, emerging-market central banks are forming a line of defense as a rising dollar pushes their currencies to multi-year lows Japan's government 'alarmed' by recent forex moves, top officials say Bitcoin supply may not be fixed at 21M, says BlackRock Not only does Apollo see less rate cuts in 2025, but they are now calling for potential rate HIKES Elon Musk Draws First Blood With Government Spending Bill Bombshell - WSJ Trump-backed spending deal fails in House, shutdown approaches | Reuters Japan's government 'alarmed' by recent forex moves, top officials say | Reuters Well, do something about it :-) - and hike in Jan Bank of Japan bids final farewell to Kuroda's radical policy experiment | Reuters Japan’s Inflation Accelerates on Energy as BOJ Seeks More Data - Bloomberg 'Tariffs all the way': Trump says European Union must buy U.S. oil and gas in trade ultimatum Reminder that it will do little to deficit... !! Michael Pettis on X: "This makes little practical sense. Using tariffs to force trade partners to buy more US oil and gas will have no effect on the overall US trade deficit, regardless of the impact on bilateral deficits, and will actually undermine US manufacturing. Trade imbalances must be" / X President Musk? Bitcoin supply may not be fixed at 21M, says BlackRock Mohamed A. El-Erian on X: "Yesterday was far from a “normal” Fed Day: Wednesday saw the largest surge in 10-year yields on a Fed Day since 2013 and the biggest drop in the S&P index for over 30 years. It has led to heated discussions among analysts as to the “why” and the “so what.” I am currently working https://t.co/76D0fWeih6 " / X And a decent UST 2y auctions coming up next week, good timing! The Kobeissi Letter on X: "Apollo with another HUGE call today: Not only does Apollo see less rate cuts in 2025, but they are now calling for potential rate HIKES. Today, Apollo officially said they see a 40% chance of rate HIKES returning in 2025. Has the "Fed pivot" been canceled again? (a thread)" / X Billions of Dollars, Bold Action: EMs Battle a Surging Greenback IMF Reaches Agreement with El Salvador for $1.4 Billion Loan 'Prince of Darkness' returns as Starmer's new US ambassador Will be a busy man! Crypto hedge funds enjoy outsized gains following Trump’s win Cyclone survivors live 'wretched existence' on cut-off island of Mayotte | World News | Sky News France’s Le Pen: Macron is ‘done’  – POLITICO Inside Syria's notorious Sednaya prison dubbed the 'human slaughterhouse' | World News | Sky News Putin says Russia is ready to compromise with Trump on Ukraine war | Reuters Ukraine war latest: Moscow to 'pester' Trump for return of diplomatic properties; Ukraine suffers 'largest cyber attack in recent times' | World News | Sky News Steve Rosenberg on X: "I asked Vladimir Putin: “25 years ago Yeltsin handed you power & told you 'Take care of Russia.’ Do you think you have? In light of significant losses in Ukraine, Ukrainian troops in Kursk region, sanctions, inflation…” Here’s his reply. Producer @LizaShuvalova @BenTavener https://t.co/60G9ncVZiy " / X BTC chart

Powell speech: It's appropriate to proceed cautiously, “From here, it’s a new phase, and we’re going to be cautious about further cuts.” , see more headlines below ! >> sticky inflation, economic picture still ok etc etc, so why cut ?, reset in risk, high rates for longer, AAPL on 40 P/E and every other super hot movers since election got hit #TSLA etc >>> US GDP, Initial Jobless Claims, Philly Fed next up today, then we have China Rate decision US PCE Quadruple Witching Friday, and this is not Dec 2018 (hopefully), but beware!, enough out there to be very cautious in near-term, we spoke about liquidity, concentration of risk, FMS cash levels, MOMO stuff lately..etc etc Y'day was the biggest 1day drop for the S&P 500 (-3%) on a Fed Day.. ever China Central Bank Warnings on Long-Dated Bonds Aim to Curb Systemic Risks BoJ not convincing about Jan hike either.. >>> 160 USDJPY again? Grantham's famous saying is: "The bigger the new idea, the bigger the new invention, the more the market becomes overpriced, the more it attracts euphoric." / Thread #VIX from 13-15 all time lows to 25+ - its mechanic ! always is >>> ''buy a hedge/VIX when you can not when you have to'' The Dow closed down for the 10th day in a row, its longest losing streak in 50 years. All of its post-election gains have now been given back China and India agree on six-point consensus as they resume high-level border talks Italy's Meloni pledges financial discipline as parliament debates budget >>> decision before year-end needed Turkish Ministry of Defense: We will continue to take preventive and destructive measures against terrorist organizations Powell : "Lower hiring rate is a signal of softening in labor market." "Wages are at a healthy, evermore sustainable level." "Labor market is cooling in an orderly way." "We're not allowed to own Bitcoin ... we are not looking for a law change." "People are feeling the effect of high prices, not high inflation." "Best we can do is to get inflation back to target and keep it there, so wage growth is faster than inflation." "I expect another very good year next year." "From here it's a new phase, we are going to be cautious about further cuts." "It's appropriate to proceed cautiously." The Fed - December 18, 2024: FOMC Projections materials, accessible version The Path for Rate Cuts Is Less Certain, FOMC Statement Suggests Bank of Japan holds rates at 0.25%, yen weakens to over four-month low China Central Bank Warnings on Long-Dated Bonds Aim to Curb Systemic Risks, Watchdog Says China and India agree on six-point consensus as they resume high-level border talks | South China Morning Post What a potential Nissan-Honda merger could mean for the auto industry New Zealand sinks into recession, more rate cuts coming | Reuters Italy's Meloni pledges financial discipline as parliament debates budget | Reuters Trump jokes aboout making Canada the '51st state' as leader Trudeau faces turmoil Nick Timiraos on X: "In September, three of 19 Fed officials thought the risks to their core PCE inflation forecast were weighted to the upside (i.e., if wrong, it was likely to be too low). Today, 15 or 19 judged the risks around those forecasts (which were raised) were weighted to the upside. https://t.co/weiaErUCiZ " / X 'Just as we liberated Aleppo, we will proceed,' says Syrian rebel who took part in seizing Hama Ukraine war latest: Kim Jong Un 'overseeing training' after inexperienced North Korean troops killed in Russia | World News | Sky News Oliver | MMMT Wealth (CPA) on X: "This man knows the market: He has predicted: 1. The Dot-Com Bubble (2000) 2. The Global Financial Crisis (2008) 3. Japan's Asset Bubble (1989) 4. The COVID Bubble (2021-2022) Here is Jeremy Grantham's latest warning 🧵 https://t.co/aRjSzkj8RL " / X Gratham speaks very highly of Japan - They are reasonably priced - They deal with social problems well - They have some quality businesses - The Yen is "stupidly cheap" Philip Pilkington on X: "1/ What is actually happening in Argentina? Has Milei fixed the country? Or do the deep structural problems remain - and are they getting worse? 🇦🇷🧵 https://t.co/t6Z537yrWV " / X Insider trading can be legal, FCA says Elon Musk giving ‘serious thought’ to Reform donation, says Farage Revealed: Brexit has reduced UK exports by £27bn, new report claims | The Independent

Fed Funds are down 75bps over last 3months, 100bps as of tonight (priced in), while 10y UST yields went from around 3.75 to 4.5%, currently 4.39% and 30's similar from 4.05% to 4.55% >>> expectations/pricing are for a cut tonight and another 2x 25bps in 2025, most likely towards H2 Few signs of a broader 'risk' correction coming ? : Dow Jones down 9day in a row, #NVDA gave up decent ground lately, he S&P 500 has now seen more decliners than advancers for 12 consecutive days, the longest such streak in history 10y China bonds yielding 1.75% and 30y below 2%, BofA : #Stocks  flash sell signal after Cash Holdings Tumble, USDBRL, USDINR, USDKRW all time highs BofA ’s Dec Global Fund Manager Survey shows fund managers ’ average cash level of 3.9%, was 4% cash level immediately after the US election outcome in early Nov.  Allocation to Eq incr. further, to 49% overweight vs. 34% overweight in Nov China urges 'right choice' after Trump says he and Xi can fix world US Fed FOMC Meeting: Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in outcome announcement? UK inflation spikes ahead of Bank of England rates decision The Federal Reserve: Inside the Most Powerful Financial Institution on Earth | FD Finance Well worth an hour of your time during the next few days/week, one of the best documentary on the FED Investors' allocation to US stocks hits record high amid 'super-bullish sentiment': BofA survey USD/BRL hits all-time high of 6.1496 amid failed BCB intervention Animal Spirit Amoc  Steen's last one for 2024, what could possibly go wrong ? anything ? Will the Fed Keep Cutting in 2025? Inside the Interest-Rate Debate - WSJ Russia detains Uzbek citizen 'recruited by Ukraine' over killing of general - investigative committee | World News | Sky News Video: LIVE: View of the Syrian border as Israel plans occupation of buffer zone Israel launches ‘most violent’ strikes on Syrian coast as it vows to double settler numbers in Golan Heights Nigel Farage meets Elon Musk and JD Vance at Trump's home amid reports of potential £78m donation to Reform | Politics News | Sky News China urges Trump to make the right choices as Beijing predicts more uncertainty in 2025 Charlie Bilello on X: "Returns since election... Fartcoin: +1,500% Dogecoin: +131% Tesla: +91% MicroStrategy: +70% Coinbase: +61% Bitcoin: +52% Trump Media: +12% Banks: +6.4% S&P 500: +4.8% US Dollar: +4.0% Small Caps: +3.1% --- US Bonds: 0% Oil: -1.9% International Stocks: -2.3% Gold: -3.7% Energy: https://t.co/m2rlGJgNiM " / X Can't believe I missed that move in #Fartcoin Who is finance minister Dominic LeBlanc? Meet Trudeau's loyal soldier | National Post Japanese car makers Honda and Nissan hold merger talks - BBC News What are the mysterious drones flying over America's East Coast - and where did they come from? | ITV News Raiffeisen Switzerland CEO steps down unexpectedly - SWI swissinfo.ch

NASDAQ continued to push higher last week (MAG7 or 10), while Dow Jones suffered 7 days of losses, while Asian markets struggled, HSI softer softer again this morning, given back a lot of ground since the first China package >>> now we await key EU PMI data today, IFO/ZEW tomorrow in Germany FED (25bps cut fully priced), BoJ, Norges, Sweden CB and BoE rates decision, U.S PCE Friday too The MAG7 now account for 33% of the entire S&P 500 market cap, an all-time high US stocks, real estate prices, BTC and National debt on all time highs with inflation above 3% for over 3years (longest period of high inflation since the early 1990's) and the FED is cutting >>> what really matters now for markets in the press conf is 2025 outlook MS believes it is time to sell the USD as the risk-reward set up looks increasingly unfavourable.  Much of the good news have been priced, with consensus, positioning, and sentiment all $ bullish >>> longs in AUD and GBP to position for dollar weakness BofA discusses issues surrounding the US debt, which at $36 trillion, is elevated vs. history .  At the same time, the fiscal deficit outlook continues to be unfavourable.  That said, economic and market risk appear manageable for now, but Treasuries are likely to cheapen on an unfavourable supply-demand dynamic France’s credit rating cut by Moody’s just hours after new prime minister appointed “Political fragmentation” in Paris means there is a “very low probability” of reducing the ballooning fiscal deficit, ratings agency says. World’s steepest cable car opens in Switzerland US large bankruptcies are tracking the highest levels in 14 years The Fed’s Game Plan on Interest-Rate Cuts Keeps Shifting - WSJ Investors widely expect a third-in-a-row rate cut this week. Officials are ready to slow—or even stop—lowering rates after that Markets Expect A December Fed Rate Cut, But Future Policy Is Uncertain UK factories take fright as budget adds to cost pressures, survey shows France’s credit rating cut by Moody’s just hours after new prime minister appointed – POLITICO 'Everyone is scared now' - Syria's Alawites fear retribution after Assad downfall Ukraine war latest: North Korean troops joining Russian assaults in Kursk, Zelensky says Live: Israel strikes military targets on coastal region, says Syria war monitor ‼️US large bankruptcies are tracking the highest levels in 14 years China November industrial output rises 5.4%, above expectations Weak China retail sales add to pressure on Beijing to lift economy Michael Pettis on X: "1/8 Shuli Ren: "Boosting domestic demand is now seen as the only viable way to offset Trump’s tariff blow to exports, the one bright spot in an otherwise anemic economy. In an extreme scenario, if trade tensions... https://t.co/oYP3sALzoa via @opinion" / X Global Markets Investor on X: "🚨US MANUFACTURING JOB OPENINGS ARE PLUMMETING🚨 Job openings in the manufacturing sector fell to 465,000 in October, the lowest level since the 2020 CRISIS. Over the last 2 years, manufacturing job openings have HALVED. They are below the 2018 levels. Job market is weakening https://t.co/sG6qNe0Dkt " / X World’s steepest cable car opens Switzerland's Bernese Oberland - SWI swissinfo.ch and ... Record number of cash machine explosions reported in Switzerland - SWI swissinfo.ch

Trump trade adviser warns against currency manipulation as China mulls weaker yuan >> it's already been happening, at least partially, USD has been firm(er), RoW cutting rates quite aggressively, BoC & SNB with jumbo cuts (CHF too strong, some CHF short justified vs USD, GBP or even EURO, take your pick), ECB as exp, BoE (little priced in at mom for next week.. after weaker UK GSP this morning), INR new all time lows, BRL CB more aggressive and hiked 1% to 12.25% though Donald Trump has invited China’s President Xi Jinping to his inauguration >>> The move is an early sign that the US president-elect intends to resume the high-level engagement with China's leader that marked his first term-FT >>> then again Xi has declined the invitation, they are negotiating... SNB's Schlegel maintained the rhetoric of willingness to intervene if required, and that they still has room for further interest rate moves GS notes that China’s debt-fuelled growth over the past decade stands out compared with other countries across history.  In the aftermath of large debt build ups, as China is experiencing now, it is “natural” that growth slows and inflation declines.  China’s reflation process is likely to be prolonged Elon Musk Pushes for Federally Funded Ozempic and Less Government Spending Trump advisers seek to shrink or eliminate bank regulators, WSJ reports Apple's P/E Ratio : 41x vs a 10-year average: 22x - none of this seems to matter at the moment, when will it matter ? S&P 500 Price to book, brings us so close to being the most expensive market of the modern era (2000 period before that), #TSLA PE is now 115x, most expensive out of the MAGA 7 with about 1.5% revenue increase in 2024 IBKR  CEO Thomas Peterffy: The Magnificent 7 represent over 70% of the trading volumes on the platform BofA: Investor sentiment is euphoric Global Equity Risk-Love: currently at the 90th percentile of its history since 1987 Tokyo plans 4-day working week in effort to boost births (from April 2025) SNB Surprises With Half Point Rate Cut to Stem Gains in Franc Donald Trump has invited China’s President Xi Jinping to his inauguration And... Xi Jinping Rejects Donald Trump's Inauguration Invitation: Report - Newsweek Trump rings NYSE opening bell as he's named Time Person of the Year Trump trade adviser warns against currency manipulation as China mulls weaker yuan | Reuters INR slips to fresh lifetime lows | Capital Market News - Business Standard ECB cuts rates by 25bp and keeps door wide open for more | snaps | ING Think Brazil's central bank hikes more than expected, signals more tightening ahead | Reuters A step in the right direction - Nov 2024 | Investor | Kepler Trust Intelligence Economy in shock decline during October UK GDP down 0.1% in Oct.. that's called a shock, good old media.. Trump advisers seek to shrink or eliminate bank regulators, WSJ reports Charlie Bilello on X: "Apple's P/E Ratio: 41x 10-year average: 22x Apple's EV/EBITDA Ratio: 28x 10-year average: 16x Apple's Price to Sales Ratio: 10x 10-year average: 5x $AAPL https://t.co/l5IYmkf6Ih https://t.co/LrwHmt7iu1 " / X Chart of it all in there Send this to your HR: Tokyo is moving to a 4-day week so people can make babies | Condé Nast Traveller India RFK Jr. says Ozempic and weight-loss meds can't replace a healthy lifestyle Elon Musk Pushes for Federally Funded Ozempic and Less Government Spending - Newsweek Alexander Stahel 🌻 on X: "Merkel shut down 22GW of world’s safest nukes with 34y avg age (nukes run 60y). Now they scramble to build 15GW of new gas power to keep grid alive. Amazing “Götz warned that continuing to rely on aging coal-fired power stations to stabilize the grid carries risks, since they https://t.co/4mK3R0e9hq " / X Is Javier Milei’s campaign to smash the state working? Rick Rule on X: "Listen to this, chilling. In his view, your money is not your money. It is societies to control, as the central bankers, and their masters see fit. Is that how you view your money?" / X

SNB cut rates by 50bp to 0.50% - the 4th cut in this cycle, but the first 50bps cut (CHF strength an issue too...) - while keeping an easing bias. "Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased again", justifying the move >>> stay short CHF, carry etc US President elect Donald Trump has invited Chinese President Xi Jinping to the January 20th inauguration >>> this ''could be'' significant signs of much better things to come for global growth (very early days though..) Yesterday, Chinese leaders basically signalled on Monday that they are ready to deploy whatever stimulus is needed to counter the impact of expected U.S. trade tariffs on next year's economic growth U.S. inflation CPI, was again up 0.3% MoM, for 3rd month in a row!! and 'markets' says that it cements FED cut next week, really? has FED abandoned inflation target then ? Dollar’s surge sparks biggest fall in emerging market currencies in 2 years Developing economies also suffering from ‘confluence of bad news’ BOJ leaning toward keeping rates steady next week - little priced in so would be a surprise if they hike now NATO to consider raising defense spending target to 3% of GDP - Bloomberg #AAPL now trading at nearly 10x sales, the highest valuation level in company history Swiss minister flirts with inheritance tax idea Javier Milei: ‘You already know the chainsaw, now the deep chainsaw is coming’ Statement by the European Commission on the occasion of Bulgaria and Romania becoming fully part of Schengen Trump invites China's Xi Jinping to inauguration - CBS News Swiss National Bank takes leap with 50-basis-point interest rate cut amid franc strength Dollar’s surge sparks biggest fall in emerging market currencies in 2 years Exclusive: BOJ leaning toward keeping rates steady next week, sources say | Reuters Australia's unemployment drops to 8-mth low, markets pare Feb rate-cut bets | Reuters Chinese Consumption Stocks Surge on Policy Optimism, Vouchers - Bloomberg Javier Milei: ‘You already know the chainsaw, now the deep chainsaw is coming’ | International | EL PAÍS English NATO to consider raising defense spending target to 3% of GDP - Bloomberg Inflation rises to 2.7% ahead of Fed interest rate decision Trump Tariff Risk Roils Gold, Silver as New York Prices Jump - Bloomberg Nick Timiraos on X: "👀Falling prices (deflation) of core goods over the last 18 months helped deliver a decent chunk of the disinflation we've seen. That has now ended, with higher car prices pushing up core goods 0.3% on the month (after +0.05% in October and +0.17% in September). https://t.co/7QLxi0TDOB " / X Bulgaria and Romania become fully part of Schengen Hailey Welch Goes AWOL After Failed Hawk Tuah Token Launch Just another scam The true cost of plant-based m – The Story – Apple Podcasts How good are those funky oat milk and al ? ... Healthier, eco-friendly, altogether virtuous. This may be how we think of milk alternatives but new research is calling into question the ‘plant-based milk myth’. So what’s the truth? How good for you - and the environment - is your oat milk flat white? Swiss minister flirts with inheritance tax idea - SWI swissinfo.ch Swiss fintech Leonteq has profits confiscated after regulatory breach - SWI swissinfo.ch Brazil family farming minister: Transform global food production | Context