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  • Writer's pictureStéphan

#USDJPY implied vols sky high / 2023 USD forecasts lower / UK wages / Hildebrand / All about BoJ now

  • Major investment banks....already revising their USD forecasts lower, EURUSD to 1.15 byend of 2023, IF they do this they will soon revise their #SPX00 forecasts higher too !!...this is clearly the potential implication..

  • Who is Lee Koguan, the Elon fanboy and one of Tesla's largest shareholders who now says Musk has 'abandoned' the EV maker. Fully Electric Vehicles made up almost 10% of all new cars sold globally in 2022 - WSJ

  • Frau Lambrecht resigned as German Defense Minister

  • Morgan Stanley says European stocks san extend lead over the US, optimism on China, earnings supports Europe’s outperformance. Secker also sees boost from light positioning, sector trends

  • Hildebrand, fast path down for inflation in 2023 from 9 to 4%, 2% won't happen for long while, no more QE, new world and does not see rate cut this year (agreed, this what we have been talking about for a while, as the most likely scenario, and the 200bps of rate cuts priced in by Dec 2024, seems rather big at this stage!)

  • WEF's annual meeting began with corporate executives and economists warning of a worldwide recession this year. A PricewaterhouseCoopers survey found 73% of 4,410 business leaders predicted global growth will decline over the coming 12 months, the worst since the poll began in 2011...>>> ie the most anticipated recession , ever

  • UK wages rising at near record pace, clear labour shortage >> hard to se BoE hike only 25bps at next meeting with these kind of data, which would put both ECB and BoE going 50bps, while FED is 'only' going 25bps

  • China population: 2022 marks first decline in 60 years. Mainland China’s overall population fell to 1.4118 billion last year, as the growth rate hit negative 0.6 per thousand people

  • Markets are passed the "peak Fed hawkishness" and "peak inflation." But an "earnings peak" has yet to be fully digested/thread-chart

  • BoJ's real goal, ideally, is to get our of YCC, which started in December (earlier than many thought in markets), now Kuroda on his way in April, they will continue to adjust rates, but what they are desperately trying to do is getting out of YCC (say 2%) without JPY strengthening massively..clearly a tough ask!

Markets :
  • UST's net speculative still heavily short and near multi-year lows

  • USDJPY (chart below) overnight implied vols over 30%, which means a 1day straddle costs 320 JPY pips! the market is expecting some volatility!.. low delta trading near 40-50% implied.. >>> so we could trade between 125 and 132 USDJPY ! strap yourselves in, Kuroda this afternoon - please don't ask what I think (ok some of you asking.....IMHO, the market has anticipated and priced in a lot from BoJ already last couple of weeks...

  • Equity markets : we all know about technical levels in SPX500, VIX (eq implied vols) remain soft, and a slightly softer USDdollar overall will help risk going forward, but it's January and Jan markets are always/often subject to sharp turnaround


Bank of Japan in a corner, can’t avoid volatility | Saxo Market Call (

and good charts in there

Global_Macro on Twitter: "Markets are passed the "peak Fed hawkishness" and "peak inflation." But an "earnings peak" has yet to be fully digested" / Twitter

baufinanciaphaster UNVERiFlED on Twitter: "For those thinking about the BOJ policy meeting tomorrow. A little depth will be worthwhile. Everyone knows Kuroda-san is on his way out. His term ends 8 April. USUALLY, the govt releases its "nomination" in February and then the candidate goes in front of the Diet for" / Twitter recap on 3 possible Kuroda replacements..

EUR/USD 2023 forecast, as per forex strategists (

UK wages rising at near record pace - live updates (

Rishi Sunak blocks Scotland's gender recognition bill (

Corona-Indiskretionen - Bundesrat in der Bredouille: Kann Berset dem Druck standhalten? - News - SRF Berset not so popular..

Who Is Leo KoGuan, the Tesla Shareholder Crusading Against Elon Musk? (

German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht resigns amid Ukraine war backlash (

Nein, Frau Lambrecht, die Medien sind nicht schuld

Matteo Messina Denaro: Italy's most wanted mafia boss arrested in Sicily, police say | ITV News

China population: 2022 marks first decline in 60 years | South China Morning Post (

USDJPY - it has already moved decently - in fact it has corrected 50% of the move since March 2020

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