ECB - pretty much as hawkish as one could be, pretty grim new forecasts and rates guidance, might not be a shock for markets to price more hikes in Q2 2023..ECB says expects to raise rates "significantly further" because inflation far too high. ECB: Inflation seen at 6.3% in 2023, 3.4% in 2024, 2.3% in 2025... very hawkish revisions, this could be pretty ugly period for EZ bonds, BTP's etc..They failed all year to react early!!! and now they are stepping up (when the economy is clearly slowing), it's easy for them at the ECB, they have ZERO #accountability - the whole lot of them are going to damage life for folks Additionally, The ECB to continue to be flexible in its PEPP reinvestment (as needed) and added that QT will begin in March at a "measured, predictable pace", with the average monthly decline in bonds will amount to 15 billion euros until the end of the second quarter, more than one-third of ECB officials wanted to hike by 75 bps FRANKFURT, Dec 16 (Reuters) - Inflation in Germany, the euro zone’s biggest economy, is likely to be higher than earlier thought while economic growth will be weaker with a recession next year now certain, the Bundesbank said on Friday in a biannual update of its economic forecasts >>> HUGE message, the north is back in charge of monetary policy, rates are heading up, peripheral markets beware Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) said Wednesday that former President Trump is “absolutely guilty” of a crime surrounding the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol. "The growth slowdown is not yet priced, and that's what's going to determine the winners," Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson says on inflation and his outlook for 2023 SEC charges 8 influencers in $100 million 'pump-and-dump' scheme -New York will ban the sale of dogs, cats and rabbits in pet stores starting in 2024 - WSJ EU leaders grant Bosnia EU candidate status TSLA : when the CEO sells a chunk of shares on 2y lows, market cap has halved last 12months >>> "There's a New Sheriff in town": Twitter nukes dozens of Liberals from platform As Kuroda bows out, Bank of Japan's rising hawks eye end to unloved yield cap -Phili Fed: ”In the aggregate, 10,500 net new jobs were added during the period rather than the 1,121,500 (!!) estimated”.. wow Pacifist Japan unveils unprecedented $320 bln military build-up UK vs French private debt to GDP - who would have thought France was 284% vs UK 187% - charts below German 10y real yields (10y yields - 10y inflation expectations) have turned positive again after y'days hawkish ECB pivot Markets : DJ had its worst day in 3 months, fell more than 700 points as recession fears growing following weak data in the US and China + more importantly a ''shockingly hawkish ECB clearly did not help'', this after a hawkish Fed/higher terminal rate etc OPEX day, some $4trn maturing today, should be fairly quiet till the final hour! EURO rallies on super hawkish Lagarde, EURJPY, EURGBP, EURUSD and EURCHF fairly steady to slightly higher only. USDollar higher vs risk currencies on risk-off move in equity markets. GBP weaker, BoE was not hawkish at all with inflation above 10%.. SPX500 breaking down through 3920 area of support , which has help for over1month, QQQ, #APPL and DAX similar negative picture/momentum, bunker down, let's hope I'm wrong but this looks a little eminiscent of December 2018!!.. .the BIG difference is that there is 2trn of cash sitting around in RRP.. Investors are 24.3% Bullish to 44.6% Bearish, per the AAII Sentiment Surve Crude a little softer together with rest of markets Watch CNBC's full interview with Morgan Stanley CIO Mike Wilson BOJ to keep ultra-low rates, hold fire until global outlook clearer - CNA (channelnewsasia.com) Bundesbank sees recession, higher inflation in Germany | Reuters Bank of England imposes ninth consecutive interest rate rise to tackle inflation | Business News | Sky News United Kingdom Private Debt to GDP - 2022 Data - 2023 Forecast - 1995-2021 Historical (tradingeconomics.com) vs France Private Debt to GDP - 2022 Data - 2023 Forecast - 1995-2021 Historical - Chart (tradingeconomics.com) - Kinzinger says Trump ‘absolutely guilty’ of crimes ahead of Jan. 6 | The Hill TikTok algorithm drives teens to dangerous content says new study (cityam.com) Commodity Insights Gas on Twitter: "Germany misses gas savings target again as consumption dips only 5% in Week 49 | https://t.co/YcLHdL1uhx *#Germany advocating for 20% gas use reduction *Target clearly missed even adjusted for temperature *European #gas prices remain historically high #ONGT https://t.co/YASZcGBvOz" / Twitter SEC Charges FinTwit Bros in $100 Million Pump and Dump Scheme - TheStreet Only 8 ? what about Elon pumping Dogecoin and al ?.. Elon Musk sold shares worth $3.6 billion of Tesla. Shares of his electric-vehicle company, the world’s most valuable carmaker, has halved this year, underperforming both automakers and the broader tech-heavy Nasdaq Thomas Thornton on Twitter: "Both of these charts should work lower https://t.co/l0szSeI5Uf" / Twitter Twitter bans some journalists who cover Elon Musk - BBC News >>>> Muks in only in it for Musk..doesn't care about anyone else.. November sales down as online retail flops despite Black Friday (cityam.com) Apple looks beyond China for production as dalliance turns sour (msn.com) Everyone asking about APPL, our thoughts are here : Apple vs. Microsoft? Outperforming fund manager says there's a clear winner (cnbc.com) #APPL increased debt along the way for their sharebuybacks... the key is net equity! Ten_Bagger on Twitter: "Phili Fed: ”In the aggregate, 10,500 net new jobs were added during the period rather than the 1,121,500 (!!) estimated”.. wow. https://t.co/OfBmRg7UUv" / Twitter quite how they all guess this data has always been the question.. pure guessing it is! Pacifist Japan unveils unprecedented $320 bln military build-up | Reuters

The Federal Reserve will hike interest rates to as high as 5.1% in 2023 before the central bank ends its fight against runaway inflation, according to its median forecast released Wednesday. The expected “terminal rate” of 5.1% is equivalent to a target range of 5%-5.25% . The forecast is higher than the 4.6% projected by the Fed in September, in other words higher for longer.. Powell: "Historical experience cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy. I wouldn’t see us considering rate cuts until the committee is confident that inflation is moving down to 2% in a sustained way... we’re not in a sufficiently restrictive policy stance yet" SNB hikes 50bps as expected, note the small uptick revision to inflation expectations (>1.8% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025) means one more 50bps hike in 2023 will be needed, probably in march2023. SNB: "we have sold foreign currency in recent months to ensure appropriate monetary conditions." Norges Bank Hikes Deposit Rate By 25Bps To 2.75% From 2.50%; As Expected Peru declares state of emergency, seeks 18-months jail for Castillo China won’t report asymptomatic COVID cases in further shift Elon Musk sells (another) chunk of Tesla shares worth $3.6bio Nuclear Fusion 'Breakthrough' Touted By White House, Drawing Praise And Some Skepticism Tokyo makes solar panels mandatory for new homes built after 2025 Markets : SPX500 - no drama - yet anyway, but we traded through the trendline on the U.S CPI, failed to really retest yesterday post FOMC and now trading a little softer, keep an eye on same old levels of 3'920 area support vs 4'050 and 4150 bigger resistance - chart update below USD a little stronger together with the slightly higher terminal rate post FOMC >>> USDJPY - above 137.50JPY and the short USdollars will be tested and wrong.... watch out - chart below (>> you can reverse upside down the chart and have EURUSD..!, below 1.0525-50 area and the EURUSD bulls will struggle !! Crude steady/off lows, will react to further China reopening news eventually Bonds, all about the language and the 2023-24 curve, terminal rates etc, overall message is and most likely will be for most ''higher for longer'' Gold, metals back down too, XAGUSD through $22.50 and bulls won't like it Saxo’s Jakobsen: Never Seen a Recession From Full Employment - YouTube Agreed - Higher for longer.. well worth listening to Steen for 5minutes Financial Markets Today: Quick Take – December 15, 2022 | Saxo Group (home.saxo) German economic institute IFW: -2023 inflation forecast of 5.4% is reduction from previous forecast of 8.7% - sees 2024 German GDP growth of 1.3%. SNB : Cannot Rule Out Further Rate Hikes To Ensure Price Stability - Prepared To Intervene In FX Markets If Needed - Sees 2022 CPI At 2.9%; 2023 At 2.4%; 2024 At 1.8% - Sees Inflation At 2.1% In Q3 2025 - Inflation Expected To Remain Elevated For Time Being Leitzins steigt um 0,5 Prozentpunkte: Was der Zinsentscheid für Sparerinnen und Eigenheimbesitzer bedeutet | Tages-Anzeiger (tagesanzeiger.ch) Monetary policy assessment of 15 December 2022 (snb.ch) Summary of Economic Projections, December 14, 2022 (federalreserve.gov) The Fed projects raising rates as high as 5.1% before ending inflation battle (cnbc.com) Peru declares state of emergency, seeks 18-months jail for Castillo - SWI swissinfo.ch 40% der Mitarbeiter empfehlen CS nicht als Arbeitgeberin - Inside Paradeplatz China won't report asymptomatic COVID cases in further shift | AP News Elon Musk sells chunk of Tesla shares worth $3.6B (nbcnews.com) Nuclear Fusion 'Breakthrough' Touted By White House, Drawing Praise And Some Skepticism | ZeroHedge Senate votes to ban TikTok use on government devices | The Hill USDJPY - above 137.50JPY and the short USdollars will be tested SPX500 - no drama yet, but we traded through the trendline on the U.S CPI, failed to really retest yesterday post FOMC and now trading a little softer, keep an eye on same old levels of 3'920 area support vs 4'050 and 4150 bigger resistance Have a great end to the week Team PVM

- Definition of a manic market : one that reacted like that to core CPI missing by 0.1% ..on a 7 handle... really? I know it's not the exact random number, it's about the direction but still, major Eq index SPX500 goes up 3% and back down the same amount within 5 hours >>> The terminal rate now at 4.82% down from 5%+, which means 50bps and 25bps still to come, WSJ article from Timiraos sounds a little 'dovish', caviat and IMHO : inflation will not go back down to 2020 levels for....10years? down to 4 or 5% sure...but lower will be extremely difficult... - ALL CB's to do 50bps - let's keep it simple FED, BoE, ECB and SNB -Binance withdrawals jump to $3 billion in 24 hours, research firm says -“A surprisingly large % of US income tax receipts are tied to a rise in US stock prices. When the US stock market just stops rising…not falls, but just stops rising, that will put pressure on the receipt side of the US fiscal picture, which no one is talking about.” -Greenspan - TSLA is down 60% from its peak last Nov, now the largest drawdown ever.. -NATO Chief: Relations With Russia "Destroyed" Even If Fighting Ends -China fuel demand outlook brightens as road, air traffic jump after COVID curbs eas - The worry is that, along the way, we are going to waste huge amounts of money on the wrong use cases for hydrogen and the wrong infrastructure in the wrong places. Worse than wasting money, we will also be wasting time – and that is the one thing we don’t have. Let’s be smart/lengthy, interesting article below - India's Nov WPI inflation at 21-month low as food, commodity prices ease -Trump's conservative base deserting him for DeSantis Markets : - Bond markets placing bets on recession-level Inflation plunge next year - SPX500 'broke' that trendline and traded above 200dma, but for now, failed, though overall no real reasons to sell down, unless Powell is really super hawkish, more hawkish than the 'hawkish 50bps hike that has been expected' for a long while -Crude - well off lows, China re-opening -USDollar took a decent dive again post CPI, no recovery overnight A must watch! yours truly, doing our best for our clients Apple vs. Microsoft? Outperforming fund manager says there's a clear winner (cnbc.com) feedback welcome dear clients, friends, partners, family, ex colleagues and others UK inflation rate drops slightly to 10.7% but cost of living still close to 40-year high (inews.co.uk) finally peaked...!!..like pretty much all other inflation data around the world Carlyle to miss deadline for $22bn fund as investors cool on private equity | Financial Times (ft.com) One Bubble to Rule Them All on Twitter: "1/7. Danielle @DiMartinoBooth was absolutely on fire in this interview with @JackFarley96 (yet again proving he is one of best interviewers out there). Too much to do justice to on a tweet thread, but jump in at 58 mins for discussion of private markets. https://t.co/mN64ecNSVI" / Twitter Nick Timiraos on Twitter: "The November CPI isn't likely to alter the Fed's anticipated 50-basis-point hike Wednesday But two months of moderating price pressures could complicate deliberations over how much more to raise rates early next year and how long to hold them there https://t.co/B5YRsVeIhY" / Twitter Grant Shapps clashes with Labour MP during grilling in parliament (yahoo.com) Sportswashing the World Cup from Geneva - SWI swissinfo.ch Japan pegs USDJPY at 200 - Saxo Outrageous Prediction | Saxo Group (home.saxo) Binance withdrawals jumped to $3 billion in 24 hours, Nansen says | CNN Business Sam Bankman-Fried denied bail in Bahamas on FTX fraud charges (cnbc.com) FTX founder Bankman-Fried’s campaign finance charges ‘just the tip of the iceberg’ | The Hill Mr. Barr: "Why were things as bad as you say they were?" JJR: "There was no board of directors. I put in a new CFO, a CIO, all with background in these sectors. There's a lot of titles in the company but no experience to back it up. There was zero structure." Elon Musk Is Unfazed By Tesla's Decline (msn.com) he doesn't care... Musk only cares about himself..... suspect shareholders do care about share price though... The world’s richest person doesn’t tweet. Bernard Arnault becomes world’s richest on champagne, Louis Vuitton bags. The LVMH boss has a fortune estimated at $170.8bn BofA Finds Investors Are Less Pessimistic on the Economy, More Upbeat on China - Bloomberg >>>> remember what we said 6-8weeks ago, China was uninvestible... (as markets crahed.)...when price action changes, economist and investors become more upbeat.... classic Liebreich: The Unbearable Lightness of Hydrogen | BloombergNEF (bnef.com) It's complicated, lengthy process and expensive, we all would love to be simple.. The worry is that, along the way, we are going to waste huge amounts of money on the wrong use cases for hydrogen and the wrong infrastructure in the wrong places. Worse than wasting money, we will also be wasting time – and that is the one thing we don’t have. Let’s be smart. Trump's conservative base deserting him for DeSantis - poll - BBC News Have a great day Team PVM

The world needs 2 billion electric vehicles to get to net zero. But is there enough lithium to make all the batteries? Hong Kong is fully reopened to overseas arrivals, 3-day monitoring removed GOLDMAN: “Next year, we expect that zero earnings growth will result in zero appreciation for the S&P 500. .. Based on our conversations with clients in recent weeks, many investors have a more bearish equity market outlook than we do.” [Kostin] >>> all about stock picking over the next few years, quality names! China Plans Over $143Bln Push to Boost Domestic Chips, Compete With US >>> yet.., A sharp increase in China’s Covid infections following an abrupt end to strict pandemic control measures suggests investors may need to pare back on reopening trades, according to Morgan Stanley FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried nicked in the Bahamas after US files criminal charges. US Justice Department may charge Binance Execs for money laundering, Silvergate in the mix too etc etc ... JPM: "CPI Prints 6.9% or lower. A print here could be the technical end of the bear market, putting this latest rally at a more than 20% move from its lows in October. SPX +8% - 10%." >> let's see about this then later on!, nothing like pumping some ideas, on a random number, nothing like a bit of publicity.. New York Fed survey on inflation: Year ahead inflation falls to 5.2% from 5.9% last month, that's a record month to month drop Looking back at the last 22 years of monetary policy. Central bankers created more than $30trn USD >> great Thread below Putin unexpectedly cancels annual Year-End marathon Press Conference, though, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping to hold talks on New Year's Eve - Vedomosti Alabama, Utah become the latest U.S. states to ban TikTok on state devices EU corruption scandal: European Parliament offices searched Markets : Equity markets : do NOT be surprised if we move 3-4% over next 24hours, up and/or down in fact, and do not forget OPEX expiry Friday, which will impact on the edges of recent range USD remains stable/softish but nothing really new this week Bonds reacted a little to slightly higher PPI last Friday, but nothing ramatic - yet anyway ALL about language , 50bps cemented, clearly 25 or 75bps would be a big surprise to markets and will have its implications, U.S CPI first >>> looking at implied vols, VERY high for a couple of days (on random numbers and headlines...) then implied cut in half, so high vol on number then hopefully ''relatively quiet'' going into year-end Crude off lows, China re-opening US Inflation over the last couple of months (CPI YoY) October 2021: +6.2% November: +6.8% December: +7% January 2022: +7.5% February: +7.9% March: +8.5% April: +8.3% May: +8.6% June: +9.1% (was the high) July: +8.5% August: +8.3% September: +8.2% October: +7.7% November: (Expectation +7.3%) Electric vehicle demand – has the world got enough lithium? | World Economic Forum (weforum.org) >>> the world is way way behind the plan, the amount of capital required are probably 100x what's been discussed right now to be effective and there is probably not enough lithium in the world for such big rollout, and not enough iridium either (for sure..!!) UK economic bounce back a false dawn as recession still looms (cityam.com) All change - GS on China covid zero: "we have changed our base case to "effective reopening with control" vs. our long-held view of vaccinating the elderly before reopening after next year's "Two Sessions" Kosovo Urges NATO Intervention As Serbia Border Tensions Explode, Gunfire Exchanged | ZeroHedge - please make this all calm down Best thing about Eva Kaili's arrest is that she got paid bride from Qatar.... IN FIAT currencies :-) when her role is .....European Parliament | Chair C4AI | ICT | Foresight Innovation Digital Strategy | CSR | InvestEU | Blockchain Who is Eva Kaili, the MEP at the centre of the corruption scandal shaking up Brussels? | Euronews - you just couldn't make this stuff up.. EU corruption scandal of 'utmost concern' after four charged over alleged bribes from Qatar, von der Leyen says | World News | Sky News EU corruption scandal: European Parliament offices searched - BBC News Binance slams ‘wrong’ report about the DOJ considering money laundering charges against the crypto exchange (msn.com) Putin cancels annual press conference for the first time in 10 years (yahoo.com) CS befördert wie wild, macht "Juniors" zu Directors - Inside Paradeplatz Javier Blas on Twitter: "I have written only one story about fusion energy. For my university's newspaper 25 years ago. Thankfully, it isn't online. Since then, I'm skeptical of surprisingly well-timed announcements by budget-starved laboratories about breakthroughs for technologies decades away |🧵1/10" / Twitter Seven dead as Peru's new leader fails to quell protests | World News - Hindustan Times Explained: What's behind the long-running conflict between Serbia and Kosovo? (firstpost.com) India's defense minister Singh says Indian and Chinese soldiers came to blows last week. India raised the issue with China diplomatically. Soldiers on both sides suffered from injuries.-BBG Jacinda Ardern caught on hot mic calling minor opposition party leader an ‘arrogant prick’ | Jacinda Ardern | The Guardian Have a great day Team PVM

China to use Shanghai exchange for yuan energy/oil payments deals with Gulf nations - Xi and Saudi ForeignMinister ''I don't see any contradiction in working with China & the U.S Covid in China: China downplayed the risks of Covid again as it eases restrictions. Top medical adviser Zhong Nanshan said omicron's fatality rate is in line with the flu, about 0.1% "Oil’s recent decline is due to paper markets selling into low liquidity air pockets rather than indication of a distressed physical market" - RBC... Goldman Sachs estimates that Chinese oil demand may rise by 1mbpd on reopening . All else equal, this may lead to price increases of around $15/bbl. US lawmakers are laying the groundwork for a potential (potential?? oh come on pls) case of fraud against FTX Founder, Examines Cash Flows to Bahamas - Bloomberg Belgian police arrested the vice-president of the European Parliament on suspicion of corruption in the interests of Qatar BlackRock: "We don't think equities are fully priced for recession." "Corporate earnings expectations have yet to fully reflect even a modest recession. This keeps us tactically underweight developed market equities." ECB will have reduced TLTRO by nearly 40%, and its balance sheet by about a tenth, and this before they even begin QT (Thread) The USD liquidity picture is NOT as tight as forecasted by many.. The RRP, TGA and IOER-deficits COUNTER a lot of the intended QT effect.. (Thread) US PPI: November PPI came in stronger than expected, increasing 0.3% m-o-m (Consensus 0.2%), 7.4& - few various bits lower but still Markets : OPEX expiry at end of the week - some $4trn of derivs expiring - to add some spice into the gamma stuff after FOMC FED , BoE , ECB and even SNB pricing been cemented at 50bps for a while (SNB slightly less), it is ALL about the language USD on weak side going into FOMC week, U.S CPI before meeting Equity markets weakened on Friday into close on the slightly higher PPI, SPX500 3920 vs 4050 (so far...market 'failed' into the large resistance zone we talked about last 2weeks...OPEX related momentum/stops above ?) Gold and XAG (in particular) rallied hard last 2weeks, the poor man's Gold, looks bullish while above $22.50 area on weekly/monthly basis Crude on lows, watch out for China re-opening The market consensus IS for a hawkish Powell, curve IS already very inverted Financial Markets Today: Quick Take – December 12, 2022 | Saxo Group (home.saxo) Isabel Schnabel 🇪🇺🇺🇦 on Twitter: "Together with the early repayments that took place on 23 November 2022, this reduces the total amount of outstanding TLTRO III by € 795.7 billion, or 38%, further contributing to the decline of the Eurosystem's balance sheet. [2/2] https://t.co/YDG9m3Yb7o" / Twitter AndreasStenoLarsen on Twitter: "This is the most important article I have written in a long while.. The USD liquidity picture is NOT as tight as forecasted by many.. The RRP, TGA and IOER-deficits COUNTER a lot of the intended QT effect.. More in my Sunday newsletter -> https://t.co/dLufaAMhSA https://t.co/XYoKpry1eK" / Twitter Nick Timiraos on Twitter: "One-year-ahead inflation expectations in the preliminary Michigan survey of consumers fell to their lowest level in 15 months, from 4.9% to 4.6% in December Five-year-ahead inflation expectations were unchanged from November at 3% https://t.co/vozt57nkTN https://t.co/CoUl832rFh" / Twitter Gold at $3,000 Among Saxo's 2023 Outrageous Predictions | GoldBroker.com Sam Bankman-Fried Was Unhinged When Binance Exited FTX Investment: CZ (businessinsider.com) Belgium makes EU parliament arrests in Qatar corruption investigation (france24.com) Michael Pettis on Twitter: "1/4 China's huge shadow banking system is getting squeezed by the property crisis: "1,483 real estate-related trust products were sold in 2022 through the end of September, down 69.7% from 4,891 during the same period last year." https://t.co/o6oDbtAaWm" / Twitter China's huge shadow banking system is getting squeezed by the property crisis: "1,483 real estate-related trust products were sold in 2022 through the end of September, down 69.7% from 4,891 during the same period last year." The number of flights for Beijing's Capital International Airport and Daxing International Airport roses by 63% on Sunday vs Saturday. CAAC flights at these two airports will reach 70% of the 2019 level in the near future The special relationship with the US is fertile ground for investment into the UK (cityam.com) SPX500 - and the -4- trendlione tops, just about EVERYONE speaks about Have a great start to the week Team PVM

Focus for next week - a lot going on! : FOMC meeting (expected and priced to hike 50bps), U.S CPI on Tuesday AND U.S Congress faces a 16th December deadline to pass legislation to continue funding the government (failure to do so, risks partial shutdown). ECB priced and expected to do 50bps, BoE similar and SNB approx. 40bps priced, CHINA industrial production and retail sales on Thursday too, ALL about the language from CB's In a couple of weeks, things have changed so fast that China has completely shifted to an "all in economy" mode...! Even at the ..ECB staff in pay dispute to hold talks about potential strike . Union will discuss protest action in new year if wage offer remains well below inflation rate Germany - Residential Construction Orders Down almost 30% year-on-year. More than during the Great Financial Crisis U.S Continuing Jobless Claims surge to 10-month highs Italy : With a booming black economy and the highest number of small businesses in Europe, cash is still very much king in Italy and Giorgia Meloni’s new right-wing coalition wants to keep it that way - Blackstone chief defends real estate fund amid rush for withdrawals "Capital Markets activity is not expected to pick up until 2H 2023" - Goldman Fins Conference The 30-year US mortgage rate has moved from 7.10% to 6.35% over the last month, the largest monthly decline (-75 bps) in rates since Dec 2008 TheAPR on the average U.S credit card just hit a record 19.50% Norwegian CPI YoY actual 6.5% (forecast 7%, previous 7.5%) - good news Eye watering price of £500+ per MWH for electricity this morning as UK Wind Power begins to fade, not good, as whole of Europe goes sub-zero!! Markets : Rates lower, GOLD and Silver up, while Crude 10pct down this week - something not quite right, clearly looks like a big liquidation in spec longs in crude (Bridgewater and few HF been mentioned, clearly a big fund) SPX500 keeping to 3925/4050 range, QQQ rallying a little on lower yields and liquidity USDollar a little softer following yield Clearly next week is the last very busy macro week, anything surprising from here could lead to large market swings, liquidities are already pretty light, invest/trade accordingly! Bond market points to Fed standing firm in battle against inflation | Financial Times (ft.com) Why oil has dropped despite new constraints on Russian supply | Financial Times (ft.com) Crude settles at lowest level of 2022 after European embargo and G7 price cap take effect jeroen blokland on Twitter: "#Germany - Residential Construction Orders Down almost 30% year-on-year. More than during the Great Financial Crisis. Forget about house prices; this is about #GDPgrowth and #employment! #recession coming. https://t.co/xUuN8tvNH2" / Twitter Government denies ‘race to bottom’ on regulation as Hunt loosens City rules – business live (theguardian.com) ECB staff in pay dispute to hold talks about potential strike | Financial Times (ft.com) Blackouts will trigger a people’s revolt against the new eco-tyranny (telegraph.co.uk) Blackouts will trigger a people’s revolt against the new eco-tyranny. Green policies are popular in theory, but can only be sustained if they don’t threaten our quality of life Poor performance now ‘the norm’ for some UK water firms, warns Ofwat | Water | The Guardian >>>> totally insane!! The Guardian revealed last week that the nine main water and sewerage companies had paid out £65.9bn in dividends in the last three decades. They have also taken on debts of £54bn. Italy’s right-wing goes to war with the EU to save cash (telegraph.co.uk) Blackstone chief defends real estate fund amid rush for withdrawals (cnbc.com) Investors should “look at Blackstone and say, ‘You guys have done an incredible job at deploying our capital in exactly the right geography, in exactly the right sectors with the right balance sheet,’” he added. “I think they have confidence in us.”.... let's see about that now then Central Banks Continue To Stock Up On Gold | OilPrice.com China Mulls More Property Easing at Economic Meeting Next Week - Bloomberg Swiss foreign policy: the end of privilege - SWI swissinfo.ch For many years Switzerland was able to increase its prosperity discreetly under the cover of neutrality. That’s not so easy in today’s shifting geopolitical landscape. Have a great Friday and we wish you a lovely weekend Team PVM

U.S. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer jubilantly announced Wednesday that the Georgia runoff election victory will next year end an evenly divided U.S. Senate, giving Democrats more subpoena power in committees and a quicker turnaround in approving federal and judicial appointments Why Europe’s electricity is so expensive. The main culprit is a surge in gas prices, and the market could face ‘further stress tests.’ European day-ahead electricity prices are rising toward the €400 per MWh range (France, UK, Belgium and Switzerland already above). That's crisis level territory, this could very likely become again a real issue, has DAX topped out - chart ? China may make some reasonable reductions in negative list for market access and further optimize business environment in 2023: Shanghai Securities Journal cites experts U.S Debt ceiling bomb nears as government spending balloons. Treasury will soon deploy 'extraordinary measures' to stay below the ceiling - US could see a fight over debt ceiling that rocks markets, Goldman Sachs warns, worth reading thread below though first German industry resilience in Oct Belgian CB losses, see thread below BoC Hikes 50bps to 4.25%, as expected, now they are ''considering need for further hikes to curb inflation'' (so they dropped language that said they ''needed to rise further. No matter how we slice it, it's a pivot China boosts gold reserves for the first time in over 3 years in possible attempt to diversify away from dollar, HK May End Outdoor Mask Rule, Relax Covid Tests, Report Says, Shanghai City Authorities: Will from Friday Stop Requiring Covid Test Checks for Restaurants or Entertainment Venues ECB's Kazimir: -There are numerous reasons to keep the pace tight in December -It is premature to celebrate an inflation peak -QT should be transparent, progressive, and predictablle Activist investor calls for BlackRock CEO Fink to step down over ESG ‘hypocrisy’ Winter of discontent spells electoral disaster for the Tories.Strikes are the grim result of the failure to control inflation Saxo-Steen/Gone are the days where low interest rates could foster dreams of a harmonious world. Get ready for the war economy UK government approves first new coal mine in decades despite concerns among Conservative MPs and experts about climate impact Biden admin tells Supreme Court law protecting social media companies has limits Markets : GOLD - looks like CB's are still buying the yellow metal in Q4 (ZH article below) Crude : US **total** crude oil inventories (both commercial and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) have fallen to a 36-year low, dropping below the previous bottom set in 2001, time for Biden to start buying again.. USD rangy to slightly weaker again (UST yields lower), CNH slightly higher on further re-opening talks in both China and HK Bonds generally higher again, UST 10's 3.42% - long way from the 4.30% blow off top, peak worries, peak inflation etc etc.. Time to park and wait for FOMC now Equity markets testing previously mentioned SPX500 support around 3920, overall, we continue to focus on real economy & strong balance-sheets only, rates will remain higher for longer, even if Powell sounds whatever the market wants him to sound like next week Why Europe’s electricity is so expensive – POLITICO Dollar Vs. Yuan: China Boosts Gold Reserves First Time in Over 3 Years (businessinsider.com) Debt ceiling bomb nears as government spending balloons | Fox Business US could see a fight over debt ceiling that rocks markets, Goldman Sachs warns | CNN Business >>>> Alf on Twitter: "The BIS paper on the ''$80 trillion of hidden US debt'' is making the rounds. It's really important, and it deserves the attention of every macro investor. A thread. 1/" / Twitter definitely worth reading the threa - very well put together by Alf ! excellent stuff, maybe not all that crazy outcome... Oliver Rakau on Twitter: "Impressive resilience of German industry in October. Together with strong Nov car production and slight recovery in production expectations points to lesser GDP contraction in Q4. But downtrend in orders and weak global backdrop still point to eventual industrial recession IMO. https://t.co/uVy5vysrCn" / Twitter >>> Unless the data is revised lower in a big way in Nov/Dec (still possible but looking unlikely), the doom and gloom scenarios of 2023 are going to have to be readjusted very soon Frederik Ducrozet on Twitter: "🇧🇪 Meet the Banque Nationale de Belgique whose shares are down 17% today after they warned against financial losses. The BNB is a special case, being 50% privately owned. But many central bank will make large losses in coming years - a🧵on our latest note. https://t.co/1ZZN4Vl1CJ https://t.co/4Ezg4x9Wc0" / Twitter >>>> They expect to end 2022 with €600-800 million losses, and more importantly around €9 billion losses by 2027. This would exceed their financial buffers of €7.08bn Central Banks Start Q4 Buying More Gold | ZeroHedge Activist investor calls for BlackRock CEO Fink to step down over ESG ‘hypocrisy’ (msn.com) Wells Fargo, BofA CEOs say consumer demand is cooling, recession looms (cnbc.com) nothing new really, but there you go Winter of discontent spells electoral disaster for the Tories (telegraph.co.uk) that's all they deserve really? First UK coal mine in decades approved - BBC News UK strikes 2022: Which services and sectors are striking or threatening to strike? | Evening Standard >>>> going to clearly be a big challenge going into year-end, how to resolve this issue after years of real paycuts.. Strikes will cause 'disruption and delays' over Christmas but govt approach is 'sensible', cabinet minister says | Politics News | Sky News Carvana stock collapses amid bankruptcy fears after creditor pact and another $1 price target (msn.com) this is another story that many lawyers will be busy earnings fee for a long while.. Keep digging Donald ! Trump digs deeper hole with Constitution comments | The Hill 'we' can be critical of Qatar and the world cup, but oooerhum Haute-Savoie : au Grand-Bornand, de la neige acheminée par camion fait polémique (francetvinfo.fr) why !!? The World at War - Saxo Outrageous Prediction 2023 | Saxo Markets SG (home.saxo) UberFacts on Twitter: "Cool facts about cows 🐄 https://t.co/ROZqYNScJO" / Twitter Francis Scarr on Twitter: "Once a fearsome diplomat, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is now complaining about gender-neutral toilets in Sweden https://t.co/Bbd2sUN68J" / Twitter ‘Worth the wait’: U.S. Senate Democrats celebrate a 51-seat majority with Georgia win – New Hampshire Bulletin Warren Buffett 'Loves' China’s BYD Despite Selldown, EV Executive Says | Tech News (hindustantimes.com) >>> CLEARLY a massive competitor to TSLA... DAX (EU50 similar..) Have a great day Team PVM

China relaxes #Covid -19 controls, allows home isolation for mild and asymptomatic cases - SCMP, China ’s Politburo Shifts Focus to Boosting Economic Recovery BIS report : There’s a hidden risk to the global financial system embedded in the $65 trillion of dollar debt being held by non-US institutions via currency derivatives, according to the Bank for International Settlements . In a paper with the title “huge, missing and growing,” the BIS said a lack of information is making it harder for policy makers to anticipate the next financial crisis. In particular, they raised concern with the fact that the debt is going unrecorded on balance sheets because of accounting conventions on how to track derivative positions. Germany arrests 25 accused of plotting coup Switzerland could ban electric vehicle use during energy crisis: reports Sunak convinces US to double its gas exports to UK to slow sky-high energy bills German yield curve most inverted since 1992, 2s10s -21bps, recession calls from many in media U.S. lawmakers ease planned curbs on Chinese chips amid corporate pushbacks RBI Chief Das: Main Risk Is Core Inflation Remains Sticky and Elevated Markets : Crude lower again, talks of massive spec liquidation going on, Bridgewater etc, now nearly 40% below peak in June ! Chinese equities are still trading more than one full standard deviation below the historical average....this after the recent rally of nearly 30% of last 6-8 weeks.. that's how cheap they were... and still are SPX500 kep perfect scenario on charts, tested trend resistance and 200dma's and failed (see below, 3925 short-term support still vs 4'50/75 area resistance, you'd think something will give past FOMC - or maybe bothsides! USD firmer post ISM services data, which was stronger than expected, not what the market was looking for, hence reaction in risk and USDollar, the risk from here is data remains strong(er) than expected and so does inflation, and the recent bond move on basis of 'peak inflation' reverses after FOMC - that's what the market is worried about again China relaxes Covid-19 controls, allows home isolation for mild and asymptomatic cases | South China Morning Post (scmp.com) Dollar debt in FX swaps and forwards: huge, missing and growing (bis.org) >>> as usual these things would weaken some risk assets sharply and create a USDollar shortage as has been many times before (1997, 2008 - after US accounting change...), the real point is many of these swaps you don't have to MtM, the rules allow you NOT to (accounting relief etc), these swaps are usually long dated swaps so you don't have to worry too much (cough..)until it's time to roll them or settle them, just pray it's going to be okay... US equity market limping at pivotal levels after sell-off extends (podbean.com) Ironic Capital on Twitter: "Latest Zoltan Pozsar: “Oil, Gold, and LCLo(SP)R”. PDF: https://t.co/d1aDCoLPqx https://t.co/5ULTljZk4S" / Twitter >>> "Russia’s decision to link gold to oil could bring gold back as a settlement medium and increase its intrinsic value sharply... Banks active in the paper gold market would face a liquidity shortfall." Germany arrests 25 accused of plotting coup - BBC News Javier Blas on Twitter: "“The lifeblood of Ludwigshafen is natural gas” The European energy crisis as seen from the German town home to the world’s largest chemical complex. (Why, would you ask, the world’s largest chemical complex is in Germany? Cheap Russian natural gas) https://t.co/3LoTQTvvKf" / Twitter Switzerland could ban electric vehicle use during energy crisis: reports | Fox Business Sunak convinces US to double its gas exports to UK to slow sky-high energy bills (cityam.com) Fox’s Stuart Varney: Trump ‘losing iron grip’ on GOP | The Hill Renewables: Andrew Forrest’s great green energy quest (afr.com) SPX500 tested top of the range, 200dma's

OPEC+ Oil Production unchanged, implementing the hefty 2 million barrel-a-day reduction agreed at its last meeting, getting cold out there ! China may announce downgrade of Covid-19 to less strict category of Management as Early as January It took the Fed a decade to get up to their 2% inflation target and it might take the Fed another decade to get it down to their 2% inflation target Fed's Barkin: labor supply likely will remain constrained - depends what data one is looking at (see thread below) Manufacturing orders from China down 40% in unrelenting demand collapse Morgan Stanley upgrades China Stocks on reopening bullishness..raised to overweight, had been equal-weight since January 2022..Recovery ‘set to be bumpy’ amid earnings pressure, Wang says >> remember on the way down in price, many said they became uninvestable, now price action has changed, guess what...! others will do the same... CBI warns UK faces 'lost decade' of growth unless Rishi Sunak gets 'serious' APPL bought back its own stock to the tune of $90bn in Q3, while investing $11bn in its business, net balance-sheet worth down $50bn.. Markets : TLT just registered its second-largest inflow in the history of the ETF on Friday. Is this a sign that the worst is over for US sovereign duration? NO, in fact it looks overdone now, the UST curve dec 2023/24 now nearly 140bp inverted, very punchy 'recession calls' SPX500 stable, after choppy NFP action, ended up unchanged, China stocks up very decently again on hope reopening gaining traction (base case remain they have and they will reopen, not if but when..) >>> slowdown is positive for stocks, when markets chase liquidity, as it is now !... >>> the BIG question is when does risk starts to flip from chasing liquidity to weaker fundamentals, depends on who you listen, and all a lot harder to call if you leveraged of course, best case for now remains weaker macro data in Q1 2023 in the US USDollar still weak, although USDJPY looks to have done enough for now , a good 10% move down from BoJ interventions near 149JPY, time to cover USDJPY shorts..>>> never underestimate BoJ.... CNH slowly catching up...as it should on reopening calls, now 6.9400.. AUDNZD done enough in short-term!..EURCHF (chsart) preparing a move up into year-end? (GBPCHF similar pattern...) Crude stable just above $80 WTI Next big rendez-vous are next week with all FOMC, ECB, BoE and SNBN meetings Financial conditions continue to ease, ease, ease (podbean.com) and few nice charts here as well from Saxo PowerPoint Presentation (podbean.com) Hu Xijin 胡锡进 on Twitter: "China is lifting lockdowns,which will increase chaos in a short time.But such transition won’t be long.I estimate by the Chinese New Year,new adaptability will emerge among people, confidence will be on a new foundation & Chinese economy will usher in a relatively strong rebound." / Twitter IT sure got interesting last few days... 2s dropped about 25/30bps - whole curve lower - usd and risk same - not even an apparent strong NFP - in fact you could argue some parts of it was weak - depends what you want to look at ! Interesting few details about US employment data … https://twitter.com/macroalf/status/1598697103613513728?s=48&t=XPCrgH_0zBDvLaTZtdwR1A Markets & Mayhem on Twitter: "$TLT just registered its second-largest inflow in the history of the ETF. Is this a sign that the worst is over for US sovereign duration? https://t.co/QPQumzRvkh" / Twitter Manufacturing orders from China down 40% in demand collapse (cnbc.com) Apple supplier Foxconn expects to see full production resume at a COVID-hit China plant around late December to early January, after unrest at a major iPhone factory in Zhengzhou Callum Thomas on Twitter: "Pricing pressures easing... https://t.co/WueXDlYnV2" / Twitter Ukraine updates: G7 price cap on Russian oil kicks in – DW – 12/05/2022 UK economy to shrink in 2023, risks 'lost decade': CBI | Reuters UK facing 2023 recession; oil higher after Opec+ sticks with output cuts – business live (theguardian.com) Peter Stefanovic on Twitter: "I have never in my life heard so much bull**** spouted by a member of the Government in a single interview https://t.co/Mg47bvZBcM" / Twitter Winter energy woes cast shadow over Swiss ski season - SWI swissinfo.ch Bargains begin luring big banks back to China bets for 2023 | Reuters Price action become positive; many will start chasing again.. North Carolina county under curfew after power station attack, FBI investigating | Reuters Apple Stock Buybacks (Quarterly) (ycharts.com) EURCHF preparing a move up into year-end? (GBPCHF similar..) Have a great start to the week Team PVM

FED officials keep making the points of no cuts next year, markets not listening (Thread) - Will Powell insist on it today ?>>> The buck has had the worst month in over 10years, down 4-5% pverall (USDCNH lagging got obvious reasons, catch up on reopening next ?), terminal rate 5% (priced in) on the basis of #peakinflation, peak rates and thus peak USDdollar that we talked about extensively 6-8weeks ago, the only thing that looks a little farfetched (for now) is the amount of cuts priced in for 2023/24, let's see what J.Pow has to say later on, markets expects him to be remain fairly hawkish overall FT - Collateralised fund obligations: how private equity securitised itself, Stakes in hundreds of buyout groups’ companies have been bundled into investments with strong credit ratings >>> CDO's all over again - markets will never learn, worst credit repackaged into so called safe investment... ECB probably 50bps now in Dec after weaker German inflation data >>> overall HICP will surprise to the downside form here, with a core stable around 4.5/5%.. In the UK though, BRC survey suggests #food price inflation hit a new high of 12.4% in November, up from 11.6% in Oct, BOE's Pill: Our base case does not involve rates reaching 5.25%, expects UK inflation to start falling next year, assuming natural gas prices stabilise and then start to drop The Dutch government will buy and close 3,000 farms to comply with EU climate targets… FTX told customers to deposit money by wiring funds to Alameda's bank accounts, according to a Bloomberg report Credit Suisse hitting all-time lows below 3CHF, as CDS hit an all-time high.. Stoltenberg reaffirms Ukraine will one day enter NATO Elon Musk reportedly delays the launch of Twitter Blue again, this time to spite Apple Markets : HSI has rallied about 10pct last 3days, and some 25% off late October lows... LONG-term chart below to put things in perspective.. .''CCP won't be able to lock people down for much longer..'', when (not if) China (at least partly) re-opens, the markets locally have room to fly higher..together with commodities etc etc Overall rates in long-end may well be peaking on peak inflation, however, Central Banks will have to reduce actively their balance-sheet next, the FED mentioned before that about $2trn in on the cards during 2023, and this will matter for some parts of the markets... SPX500 'stalled' in our previously mentioned resistance zone 4'050 initially, then much bigger levels around 4'150, short-term support around 3'925 for today Global #Bonds add record $2.8 Trillion in market value this month.... #peakworries ... USDollar dropped about 5% in November, worst month in 10years, #peakinflation = #peakusdollar ... all happened pretty quickly, however markets should be a little careful from here, as Powell is NO Bernanke, inflation is still very high and employment is still very firm too, so he's unlikely to budge on his views and may remind markets that cuts already priced in for 2023/24 are wrong Crude remains near lows too, 4th Dec meeting - OPEC+ decision to hold virtual meeting signals little likelihood of policy change, cap on Russian oil awaited - source ALL about Powell now, NFP Friday, one more U.S CPI before the December meetings for which Lisa Abramowicz on Twitter: "Fed officials keep doubling down on their hawkish talk, but markets keep shrugging them off. While Fed members say again and again they're not going to cut rates next year, traders are still pricing in more than two rate cuts by the end of 2023. https://t.co/sddnIgHlVp https://t.co/V9tJXzkcrf" / Twitter Markets & Mayhem on Twitter: "Looks like Credit Suisse is on the verge of becoming Default Suisse. https://t.co/z97FyBiAQs" / Twitter St. Louis Fed President James Bullard addresses inflation, interest rates and recession risk in MarketWatch interview (msn.com) Collateralised fund obligations: how private equity securitised itself | Financial Times (ft.com) The US hospital staffing company Envision Healthcare, owned by the private equity firm KKR, has the lowest possible junk-grade credit rating and is at risk of bankruptcy, according to Moody’s. But an ownership stake in Envision, bundled with stakes in hundreds of other private equity-owned companies, has been transformed into a financial security marketed to ordinary savers as a safe investment with a stellar credit rating Compulsory purchase will be an option to close down farms: ministers - DutchNews.nl Phil Rosen on Twitter: "(1/5) FTX told customers to deposit money by wiring funds to Alameda's bank accounts, according to a Bloomberg report. (@BusinessInsider) https://t.co/ISbayRvPYu" / Twitter I mean really?... red flags all over and no-one cared? astonishing, due diligence anyone? ECB’s Christine Lagarde: Further crypto regulation ‘absolute necessity’ following FTX collapse (yahoo.com) >>> why do we need a collapse to bring regulations !!? German inflation eased in November but too soon for 'all-clear' (globalbankingandfinance.com) Bleak winter ahead as inflationary headwinds continue (brc.org.uk) Global Bonds Add Record $2.8 Trillion in Market Value This Month - Bloomberg Medical tech company partners with Google to improve breast cancer screenings | The Hill Stoltenberg says Putin is using winter as climate weapon (news.am) Former Chinese president Jiang Zemin dies aged 96 | ITV News Elon Musk delays Twitter Blue launch again, this time to spite Apple | Fortune Jeff Bezos: This is what you are going to regret at 80 (cnbc.com) It’s not what you do and mess up, it’s what you don’t do that will plague you when you are old and looking back on your life. Have a great week - Back next Wednesday Team PVM

FED chair Jerome Powell will be speaking this week on Wednesday starting at 1:30PM ET, and Central Bankers taking today : ECB Knot, De Cos, McCaul, Lagarde and Nagel, then Fed Williams & Bullard later on in our day ECB : all eyes on the Nov flash HICP data on Wed, exp. unch core inflation at 5%, risks bit more balanced, unless lower 75bps in Dec still very likely CHINA riots, protest, clashes in Shanghai, anti Xi calls, it's not quietening down. Multiple cities, different reasons for protests, economy in a slump, global demand down, pretty tough set of things to control... >>>> going to be an 'interesting' few days-weeks in China, eventually can work both ways.. all gets worse or someone loses faith, buys few billions doses of foreing vaccines and move on.. Late-cycle economies of Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Norway and Sweden - the #CANNS - that are seeing their housing markets suffer most - with the ASR CANNS House Price Index falling at an annualised rate of -14.9% over the 3mos months to October/thread On Friday, PBOC cut RRR by 25bps, woved to step up implementation of prudent monetary policy ''we will not resort to flood-like stimulus'' >>>> more debt, lower rates in a broken market will most likely not help much, the whole investment model in question (broken), but they know nothing else, which probably means they will stick to the same as they cannot back down.. JAPAN inflation higher last Friday, JPN likely to continue to sell Treasuries, which is widening rates differential, won't help but they will most likely continue too >>> massive amount of debt across the world fuelled massive investment bubbles last many years Hedge fund Rokos warns that sterling is ‘vulnerable’ to further fall, Brexit, deglobalisation and pandemic deal bigger shock to terms of trade, investors told >>>> that's the other big Brexit financed by massive debt increase, the bill has turned up too, they always do in the end, ridiculous populist ideas leading to poorer folks to pay the bills - ZERO accountability with politicians or central bankers, why?.. When prices surge, people can afford less, businesses struggle to control costs and, in extreme cases, political revolutions are born ESG fab (for investor...funds did well though...) - Elephants in the sustainable funds room -- why green funds fail There are millions of orphaned gas and oil wells leaking methane in the U.S. — and plugging them will cost billions. Watch the full video.. China is spending as much if not more on PCR testing as in education, totally crazy what the CCP is imposing on its people, no wonder they are becoming a lot more vocal !! Norway Became an EV Paradise, Now It's Imposing a Weight Tax and Bringing Back the VAT Markets : Crude erases 2022 gains on recessions talsk, economic slowdown accentuated by China unrests again The huge U.S equity net short is GONE, but market is far from long, skew suggesting funds are switching into hedgingdownside via puts again USDJPY possibly breaking down/CROSSJPY's rallies sold into on possible risk aversion after this big short-covering rally in Equity markets last few weeks, USDCNH higher on specific local worries 10y UST yields 3.63% - that's a pretty decent move last few weeks!, which helped Eq clearly, the thing that could worry markets again is the Fed pivot, isn't a pivot but a pause.. which seems the most likely scenario for now (unless inflation goes down properly and/or unemployment goes decently higher, the FED won't blink, and some 150bps of cuts priced in already for 2023-24 Protests against strict lockdown hit Shanghai, other China cities - Nikkei Asia Danson Cheong on Twitter: "Covid control in Beijing has broken down - a thread: On Friday night I received dreaded notification that one of the residents in my housing block had been picked up as a positive case in community screening and we might be going into lockdown. 1/N https://t.co/KotPeDVirn" / Twitter Selina Wang on Twitter: "This is an extraordinary, historic moment in China Protests are breaking out across the country-from Beijing, to elite colleges, to other major cities, and even far flung places Shocking to hear people chanting for Xi to step down This is people past their breaking point @cnn https://t.co/6lccNGIycT" / Twitter CNBC International on Twitter: "There is a 30% probability that China reopens earlier, says Hui Shan of Goldman Sachs. https://t.co/7iUvEddzaY" / Twitter About a year ago every bank was euphoric about 2023, consensus S&P forecast was above 5,100. Now :..... every bank is gloomy and downbeat, with the most optimistic predicting a flat S&P at best, some see S&P dropping to 3000 >>>> all you need is a good valuation model and manager! Apple has a huge problem at Foxconn's iPhone factory in China | CNN Business Ian Harnett on Twitter: "It is the ‘late-cycle’ economies of Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Norway and Sweden - the #CANNS - that are seeing their housing markets suffer most - with the ASR CANNS House Price Index falling at an annualised rate of -14.9% over the three months to October. A RECORD PACE! https://t.co/OgCmpU9qNX" / Twitter Hedge fund Rokos warns that sterling is ‘vulnerable’ to further falls | Financial Times (ft.com) Why Inflation Heats Up and Is So Hard to Cool Down - Bloomberg Elephants in the sustainable funds room -- why green funds fail (yahoo.com) Pure (almost)marketing scams, as often discussed before, as usual investors are fooled '''I have always been amazed by how many funds groups seem to be led by theri marketing departments rather than their investment departments'' Plugging methane-leaking oil, gas wells in the U.S. will cost billions (cnbc.com) China’s steampunk covid response | The Economist China’s steampunk covid response - How to read the country’s confusing pandemic-policy changes StockMKTNewz - Evan on Twitter: "Here's Bank of America's top 10 trades for 2023 ⬇️" / Twitter 1 - Long 30-year Treasuries 2 - Yield curve steepening 3 - Short US dollar, long emerging markets assets, long EM distressed bonds, long Korean won, long Mexican peso 4 - Long China stocks 5 - Long gold, long copper 6 - Barbell long IG tech bonds with distressed HY debt in Asia 7 - Long global industrials and small caps 8 - Short US tech 9 - Short private equity 10 - Long EU banks, short Canadian, Australian, New Zealand and Swedish banks (1) Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 on Twitter: "🛢 🇺🇸 #Oil Erases This Year’s Gains as China Unrest Flares - Bloomberg *The US oil benchmark shed all of this year’s gains as unrest in China over Covid Zero curbs rattled an already-fragile market that’s beset by demand concerns. https://t.co/BAhojcEhJS" / Twitter Norway Became an EV Paradise, Now It's Imposing a Weight Tax and Bringing Back the VAT - autoevolution .... 10-15years ago...weren't electric cars meant to be the little 2-seater we were all going to use in town to do our shopping and/or small distances? ...yups, not an SUV and/or 6seater limousine weighing 2.5tons or more... USDJPY broke down, corrected back to trend line last week and here we are lower again Have a great start to the week Team PVM

FOMC Minutes : peak usd, peak inflation, peak 10y yields confirmed), A "substantial majority" of Fed policymakers agreed it would "likely soon be appropriate" to slow the pace of interest rate hikes, the meeting minutes showed. Traders had expected the Fed minutes would affirm officials' softening stance after recent data showed a moderation in economic conditions >>> Powell speaks on 30th Nov - if he is not happy about easier financial conditions, he has an opportunity to say something then BoC Gov Maclem says expects policy rate will need to rise further And the U.S is in contraction Mfg PMI 47.6, Exp. 50.0, Last 50.4 Services PMI 46.1, Exp. 48.0, Last 47, Initial jobless claims hit the highest since mid-August as well.. In Japan, Nov factory activity shrank at quickest pace in 2 years Sunak backs down against BoE and ditches call-in power over City regulators Korean CB hikes by only 25bps, growth to slow down sharply in 2023 (they were 1st major CB to hike in Asia in the cycle, another sign-confirmation of peak rates) Foxconn offers $1,400 payout to quell protests at China iPhone plant, Apple supplier apologises for ‘technical error’ after violent clashes between workers and police Renault is buying solar power from Voltalia over 15 years in what is France’s biggest renewable corporate power-purchase agreement Markets : SPX500 levels remain the same - see below comment from GS on CTA's activity! The price of Crude Oil is now, let's call if FLAT over 2022.... and energy stocks are up 65pct.. USDollar took a very decent tumble post FOMC minutes (LOW liquidities ahead of Turkey day).. EURUSD 1.0430+ key, USDCHF below 0.9450 area again, USDJPY 139 and below big statement, CABLE 1.2020+ all need to hold to keep USD bears in charge (USDCNH lagging on new covid cases), AUDUSD bullish as long as 0.6675+, and as noted recently the KIWI bird is flying GOLD has room for higher into year-end, tech levels towards 1850$ should be tested, PLAT also interesting, while XAGUSD 22+ would be very interesting for the bulls! Germany bond market sending recession alarm too, 2s/10s yield spread – inverts most in about 30years, now -22bp UST's and rates in general, we looked for and got for #peakrates, meaning higher for longer, not necessarily looking for any cuts in 2023, until, and only until employment and inflation ease quite a bit, we are getting NFP and U.S CPI ahead of next meeting, market remains fixated and cemented on 50bps for next meeting, things could change dramatically though in early 2023, U.S CPI could see some pretty large correction lower Can CTAs help us overshoot? Goldman writes that medium term CTA momentum is back in positive as we are above the 3965 level. They projected "$6b of S&P to buy in flat tape over next 5 trading sessions but that number will grow meaningfully post today’s close". Longer term momentum flips at 4054. They also write: "Another key technical level to keep up on your screens in 200dma of 4062. Would not be surprised if mkt makes a run towards 200dma tomorrow but will be difficult to break through it." Mikael Sarwe on Twitter: "🇺🇸 Core PCE consensus above target the foreseeable future & yet market discounts 125 bp cuts mid-23 to mid-24. Lower yields, weaker USD, higher equities & tighter credit spreads since Fed meeting = fin conditions easier than normal. Are markets forcing Fed back to 75 bp in Dec? https://t.co/0rVU5A1ToF" / Twitter as per above comment, that is what I am referring to, as long as inflation does not come down, market maybe a little ahead of itself and/or you can say that a lot is ALREADY price in for 2023/24 in terms of cuts Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 on Twitter: "🇩🇪 German Bond Curve Inverts Most in 30 Years in Growth Warning - Bloomberg *Link: https://t.co/CnC3mom0cm https://t.co/oZ2b4CsSGZ" / Twitter Shares rise, U.S. Treasury yields drop as Fed minutes suggest slower rate hikes (yahoo.com) Half of variable mortgage holders with fixed payments have hit trigger rate: BoC - National | Globalnews.ca Hitting a trigger rate means a mortgage holder is no longer paying down any principal on their loan and is only covering interest — a key point that can prompt the lender to force a homeowner to make additional payments Credit Suisse Craters To Record Low After Revealing Staggering $88 Billion Bank Run | ZeroHedge yeps... Sunak backs down to BoE and ditches call-in power over City regulators (cityam.com) quite right - do not mess with your own CB (or any CB for that matter) South Korean central bank slows rate hikes, sharply downgrades 2023 growth - CNA (channelnewsasia.com) Revealed: Tory peer Michelle Mone secretly received £29m from ‘VIP lane’ PPE firm | Michelle Mone | The Guardian unreal china: China expands lockdowns as COVID-19 cases hit daily record - The Economic Times (indiatimes.com) Foxconn offers $1,400 payout to quell protests at China iPhone plant | Financial Times (ft.com) China expands lockdowns as COVID cases soar to daily record high | World News | Sky News some pretty unreal scenes out there, folks unhappy to be locked down... can you blame them? Voltalia signs a 350 megawatt solar power supply contract with Renault Group to support its energy transition (yahoo.com) have a great day Team PVM