The Chinese government is tightening controls over exports of two key materials used to make computer chips. >>> From next month, special licenses will be needed to export gallium and germanium from China, which is the world's biggest producer of the metals >>> EU must respond to C hina's new rules requiring license to export two metals used in semiconductor manufacturing , the Dutch govt said Tue. The Netherlands on Fri announced new rules requiring license to export chipmaking equipment made by ASML China’s Caixin Services PMI for June eased to 53.9 versus 57.1 prior RBA : reiterated guidance that some further tightening may be required , depending on economic and inflation developments What Everyone Gets Wrong About Global Debt | Economics Explained, video below Solar is still a fairly small part of overall silver demand, but it’s growing . It’s forecast to make up 14% of consumption this year The UK's top universities reached an agreement on how to deal with generative AI. The technology can be seen as an “opportunity rather than a threat” to academic integrity Weak krone drives record summer for tourism in Norway White House: Powder found in West Wing that sparked evacuation confirmed to be cocaine ‘It has lost its appeal’: Canary Wharf faces an uncertain future Saudi Energy Min Tells Conference OPEC+ Will Do Whatever Necessary To Support Market Markets : Stellar H2 2023 performance in equity markets, helped by ''way to bearish sentiment back in Q4 2022 and Q1 2023..'' and various FED liquidity action in H1..., we now turned into all pretty bullish sentiment, with some major invest houses lifting their year-end targets towards 4500-4700 SPX500 and most sentiment indicators, AAII bull-bear spread, futures positioning all in very positive mood.. love for risk has spiked lately! summer markets lack liquidities and can turn swiftly, stay tuned! >>> see chart below 4600 no impossible while 4300 area holds USD remains 'rangy', much more about specifics elsewhere and CROSSJPY's overall, do watch out if we drift lower in risk, these JPY crosses are overbought, yields need to move lower ideally for a decent reaction lower there WTI crude should not trade much below $70 China curbs exports of key computer chip materials - BBC News SBI Holdings to help Taiwan's Powerchip build a plant in Japan | Reuters Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia Stocks Hit As China-U.S. Tech War Escalates | Barron's (barrons.com) What Everyone Gets Wrong About Global Debt | Economics Explained - YouTube A cool 16mins video 'Serious threat' remains at Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, says Zelenskyy, as Kyiv hit by drone attack (msn.com) The World’s Appetite for Solar Panels Is Squeezing Silver Supply (yahoo.com) Can Saudi Arabia stop the ongoing slide in the oil price? (thearmchairtrader.com) Artificial intelligence: How this moment for AI will change society forever (and how it won't) | New Scientist Top UK universities agree on principles for using generative AI (qz.com) Nobel Laureate Warns UBS is Too Big For Switzerland (finews.asia) Ofwat boss fails to rule out more supplier struggles after Thames Water woes - CityAM Most terrible development over last 20+ years - now what ? go private ? sounds good, the essentially the UK government will/would take over the debt, which is big.. Weak krone drives record summer for tourism in Norway - The Local White House: Powder found in West Wing that sparked evacuation confirmed to be cocaine | Evening Standard Israeli troops withdraw in West Bank, Gaza rockets fired | Reuters FCA investigation asks if Crispin Odey was 'fit and proper' to work in financial services - (cityam.com) UK Hong Kong scheme ‘funding charity with links to Chinese Communist party’ | Hong Kong | The Guardian France Riots Follow Decades-Old Pattern Of Rage, With No Resolution In Sight (ndtv.com) Former Trump press secretary says he showed classified documents to people on Mar-a-Lago dining patio | The Hill 75 years of the NHS: How London is celebrating the anniversary (yahoo.com) ‘It has lost its appeal’: Canary Wharf faces an uncertain future | Business | The Guardian SPX500 - as long as 4300 area holds weekly, we can extent to 4600 area - top of the range

July! must be the start of the TdF, have a great start to H2 2023! US PCE deflator drops to 3.8% y/y as expected while the core drops a little more than expected to 4.6%, inflation cooling, as expected >>> FED expectations jumped higher for 2023, 2 hikes on the cards now UK Crypto, Stablecoin Laws Approved by Parliament's Upper House U.S. Supreme Court blocks President Biden's plan to cancel $430 billion in student loan debt Fiscal impulse cancelled, for now anyway France imposed partial ban on internet Higher interest encourage savings and/or deleveraging, perhaps both, eventually Media mentions of "artificial intelligence" just dropped off a cliff in last few weeks PIMCO says it's bracing for a 'harder landing' for the global economy, warning investors are too hopeful about interest-rate cuts Supreme Court blocking student-debt forgiveness will ‘devastate’ borrowers. No, it would ‘punish’ poor Americans. Who’s right? Turkey State banks 'resumed' intervention to support TRY, spending about $1 bln intervening Monday >>> USDTRY now 26+ Markets : 1year UST yield is now higher than S&P 500 earnings yield >>> not since 2000 The BIG JPM collar (sources) for this quarter now is ''short the 4670call on SPX, and long put spread 4215 vs 3560' ', after a YTD rally of nearly 16% NQ best 1st half ever, up 30% , while China got hammered, what a divergence! particularly vs S&P7's ! AAPL closed on 3trn market cap - just whaoo U.S rates back up, after quarter-end bond rally , even EU rates higher with relative ease, that's after weak EU PMI last week >>> lots of issuance coming in H2, ongoing QT etc won't make it easy for bonds (and risk eventually), HYG etc in H2 2023 USD mixed, CROSSJPY's remain the name of the game with risk and yields higher! Crude WTI held/back above 70$ - Andurand HF story below below (assuming other HF did similar, may well be part of the story of Q2 prices lower..) and Saudis/Russia announced an extension of oil export curbs STELLAR year for stocks....remember how negative 95% of economist were at the start of the year ?.. we stick to our valuation model when investing for our clients, iit works very well, guessing market sentiment in short-term, quarter by quarter, is Very difficult, the 'market' and CNBC keep trying.. it's fun to watch Quarter end sprint for stocks. Historic moves in grains. | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) Data for week coming up : MONDAY July 3rd: Swiss CPI (Jun), EZ/UK/US Manufacturing PMI Final (Jun), US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun) TUE: July 4th RBA Announcement, NBH Announcement, South Korean CPI (Jun), German Trade Balance (May) WED: July 5th FOMC Minutes, Chinese Caixin Services PMI Final (Jun), EZ/UK/US Services & Composite PMI Final (Jun), US Durable Goods R (May) THU: July 6th NBP Announcement, Australian Trade Balance (May), EZ Retail Sales (May), US ADP National Employment (Jun), US ISM Services PMI (Jun) Opec Seminar FRI July 7th : German Industrial Output (May), US Jobs Report (Jun), Canadian Jobs Report (Jun) PIMCO Says It's Bracing for 'Harder Landing' for Global Economy: FT (businessinsider.com) Russia-Ukraine war updates for July 3, 2023: Wagner suspends recruitment (cnbc.com) France imposes partial ban on internet as riots continue over teenager’s killing (scroll.in) France riots ease as mayors call anti-violence rally - BBC News IN NUMBERS: The impact of riots and looting across France - The Local An oil-trading hedge fund just got slammed with a 51% loss amid this year's slump in energy prices (yahoo.com) Bridgewater Co-CIO Greg Jensen Sees ‘Bad’ Outlook for Bonds and Stocks - Bloomberg Supreme Court blocking student-debt forgiveness will ‘devastate’ borrowers. No, it would ‘punish’ poor Americans. Who’s right? (msn.com) Stock Market Rally That Shocked Everyone Is Finally Broadening Beyond Tech - Bloomberg certainly pretty much all analysts.. Supreme Court strikes down Biden's student loan forgiveness plan (cnbc.com) UK Lords Approve Financial Services and Markets Bill, Which Applies to Crypto, Stablecoins (coindesk.com) China Life Overseas Gears Up to Tap Mainlanders as Sales Rebound in Hong Kong - Caixin Global Dutch prime minister ‘disappointed’ by Swiss rejection of tanks re-sale - SWI swissinfo.ch Switzerland clings on as world’s top offshore wealth centre - SWI swissinfo.ch Citigroup Initiates Coverage of Apple (AAPL) with Buy Recommendation (msn.com) at 3trn market cap! Tesla delivers record number of cars after price cuts | Business News | Sky News Japan Said to Be Leaning Towards Softer Rules for AI Regulation Than EU | Technology News (gadgets360.com) Twitter introduces limit on number of tweets people can read in a day | This Morning (itv.com) Steve Barclay says he is willing to offer bigger pay rise to doctors in England | Doctors | The Guardian have a great start to the week, month, Q3 and H2 2023 ! Team PVM

U.S macro data stronger again yesterday (jobless claims fell 26K to 239K, Q1 GDP 2% higher than 1.3% expected) >>> more than 1 hiked got repriced into year-end, as Powell flagged on Wed ''2 hikes or more by year-end', 2y UST yields up 15bps, USDollar not much higher though, markets awaiting PCE data this afternoon! together with quarter-end flows China’s June manufacturing PMI: 49.0, third monthly contraction (steady) and China’s June non-manufacturing PMI: 53.2, weakest this year to date Riksbank Gov: Riksbank hiked 25bps to 3.75%..not enough... SEK weakening a 'relatively important' risk factor , EURSEK pushing higher again to all time highs Yen briefly hits 7-month low against dollar at 145 mark . Finance minister warns against excessive weakening of Japanese currency ECB hawks take aggressive stance on rates after UK inflation wake-up call. Persistent price pressures facing BoE boost case for keeping borrowing costs high, say eurozone policymakers Euro area core HICP inflation did not increase as much as feared in June (+10bp to 5.4% YoY). Services inflation was up 35bp on German base effects (rail ticket) but core goods inflation eased 30bp, with all measures converging to 5.5%... still pretty far from the ECB target down at 2% Independent review into the supervisory intervention on Interest Rate Hedging Products, pretty big news for UK banks ... and all those SME's.. Austria’s foreign minister has declined to attend an Opec conference in Vienna next week amid an escalating dispute over the oil cartel’s decision to bar large numbers of prominent news organisations from attending After settlement of the bigly TLTRO repayment, excess liquidity declined by nearly euro 500bn yesterday, the most on record, till a huge €3.5tn out there Energy crisis and inflation push (ed?) more German firms into insolvency -study Markets : Rates converging with Powell's guidance on Wed Bonds, USD react and risk pushed higher still as economy 'booming', what happened to all the recession calls ? too early UST2y nearing 4% again, 3.88% latest SPX 4400+, in reality SPX7 powering ahead still Is the narrative on the economy and interest rates about to change? | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) and charts PowerPoint Presentation (podbean.com) ECB hawks take aggressive stance on rates after UK inflation wake-up call | Financial Times Frederik Ducrozet on Twitter: "🇪🇺 One size doesn't fit all, episode 47. Not everyone faces the same inflation "persistence". In France and the periphery, growth is stronger and inflation is lower than in core countries (the "unusual suspects" h/t @MoecGilles). Yet the ECB will stay the course for now. (1/2) https://t.co/LS0CNXwaQ6" / Twitter Powell says two or more hikes likely needed to cool inflation | Banking – Gulf News First-quarter economic growth was actually 2%, up from 1.3% first reported in major GDP revision (cnbc.com) China June PMI: manufacturing activity shrinks dashing recovery hopes (cnbc.com) Yen briefly hits 7-month low against dollar at 145 mark - Nikkei Asia Squeezed UK households withdraw record amount of savings in May | UK cost of living crisis | The Guardian Independent review into the supervisory intervention on Interest Rate Hedging Products | FCA >>> this is huge Nigel Farage claims his bank accounts have been closed 'without explanation' | UK News | Sky News UBS soll Stadt Zürich zu Uetlihof-Kauf drängen - Inside Paradeplatz Russia's Lavrov calls for UN Security Council membership to be expanded | Reuters Prigozhin's Villain Origin Story Revealed (newsweek.com) Mike Pence Makes Unannounced Trip To Ukraine | The Daily Caller Over 600 arrested across France in 3rd night of riots after fatal police shooting of teen (yahoo.com) Looting going on, some using the opportunity Energy crisis and inflation push more German firms into insolvency -study | Reuters have a wonderful weekend Team PVM

Saxo Bank Attains Systemically Important Financial Institution (SIFI) Designation from Danish FSA, Reflecting its Important Role in the Financial System Gustav Klimt’s Lady with a Fan sells for £85.3m , breaking European record! US Data surprises to the upside : beating expectations, reducing the likelihood of recession, new home purchases jumped 12.2%, the fastest annual rate in over a year, durable goods unexpectedly climbed 1.7% and consumer conf reached highest level since early 2022. The data support pricing of another Fed hike, Powell may address when he and other central bankers convene today in Europe (Powell, Lagarde, Bailey.. and Ueda talking) Lagarde speech: Need to bring rates into ‘sufficiently restrictive’ territory to lock in our policy tightening That Bundesbank article on Monday, ...' “In Europe, many pensions and insurance companies were forced (by their mandates) to buy bonds with negative yields (a market which at one point reached the size of $18 trn), which essentially means they were losing money from day one.” , remember that 100y Austria bond that was issued at the peak ZIRP...good times, 'too many were hiding behind their mandate...it made ZERO sense, they wouldn't have done it for themselves, but they 'had' to do to their investors, absolute madness.. ..'' BlackRock's Fink said he's no longer using the term "ESG" (environment, social and governance) because it is being politically "weaponized" and he's "ashamed" to be part of the debate on the issue Brexit shame: Three-quarters of Brits ‘not proud’ of leaving EU President Joe Biden is kicking off a more than $42 billion plan to give every American household access to high-speed internet by 2030 Quarter-end flows in equity, expected to be a decent net sell ''$150bn in US equities for sale at month/quarter-end . JPM'' ...caviat this is fairly well know since last week..news contributed to the peak Friday OpEx...a few tech/AI type names lost their momentum too WSJ- U.S. Considers New Curbs on AI Chip Exports to China. Restrictions come amid concerns that China could use AI chips from Nvidia and others for weapon development and hacking UBS to cut more than half of Credit Suisse workforce , report says Oz CPI came in decently lower at 5.6% YoY vs 6.8% in May, now a 13months low, markets trim expectations for higher rates Markets : USDJPY 2023 highs 144+, CROSSJPY's still going as risk and yields move higher VIX low point is typically in July - watch out for seasonals etc German b ond yield curve most inverted in nearly 31 years CROSSJPY's higher on higher yields and risk, AUD lower on softer CPI, mixed bag going into quarter-end flows Equity markets recovered on strong strong US data, consumer sentiment Saxo Bank Attains Systemically Important Financial Institution (SIFI) Designation from Danish FSA, Reflecting its Important Role in the Financial System | Saxo Group (home.saxo) This is great news for Saxo clients! Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 on Twitter: "🇪🇺 Total deposits' outflows continued in May (but at a faster pace than in April) https://t.co/zjJFbWfJmS https://t.co/cnbh0AXIC6" / Twitter Austrian painting sets European record in £74 million auction - The Local The Almighty US Consumer Reasons that make her continue to spend spend spend.... 1. US housing market appears to be finding its footing again even as mortgage rates remain elevated. April home prices gathered in 20 cities by Case-Shiller grew 0.91% from March, and the year-over-year decline is now only 1.0% 2. The travel sector continues to show signs of post-pandemic strength and cruise line company CCL reported results this morning that are getting a strong reception. 3. Consumer confidence edges higher. Conference Board released its monthly consumer confidence survey and the reading hit its highest level of the year -- jumping to 109.7 from 102.5 a month ago (GS) Interest rates: Traders trim Reserve Bank of Australia rate rise bets as CPI suprises (afr.com) Prigozhin's March on Moscow (corrected) - by Timothy Snyder (substack.com) good read i'd say Russian mercenary chief Prigozhin is 'dead man walking': Eurasia Group (cnbc.com) ...quite honestly everyone has got their views, can go either way, hard to think Putin's got stronger during loast week's events, but hey ho, we shall see US targets Wagner Group in curbs on gold firms suspected of funding mercenary force | Reuters and finally The Wagner Group pays twice as much as the Russian military (qz.com) Biden to announce $42 billion high-speed internet initiative (cnbc.com) Black Rock CEO Larry Fink "ashamed" to be part of ESG political debate (axios.com) what are we going to do with all those ESG ETF's :-) >> what next ? climate action ETF instead or biodiversity or hydrogen ?... they will find another gimmick to attract funds.. Charlie Bilello on Twitter: "$700 billion increase in US National Debt since the debt ceiling was suspended 3 weeks ago under the "Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023." Only the government could get away with naming a plan to borrow and spend trillions of dollars "fiscally responsible." https://t.co/GkP9MyzZTk" / Twitter Brexit shame: Three-quarters of Brits 'not proud' of leaving EU (thelondoneconomic.com) Such a populist calamity from sold by those great politicians... The promise was a better deal and access to the single market. That was what people voted for when voting to leav e . And it was incorrect, thus the polls telling us people now want to rejoin, not too hard to understand Housing expert: Here’s how to ‘bring affordability back into check’ for buyers (yahoo.com) >>> "The way you bring affordability back into check is one of three ways: You either raise incomes, you lower rates, or you lower home prices." Nach CS-Schock-Abbau: Licherlöschen in Zürich? - Inside Paradeplatz Brutal Tens of thousands of Credit Suisse staffers are about to find out if they still have a job (yahoo.com) Blackrock Gives Bitcoin a Huge Boost (finews.asia) yups - when the big institutional names get involved it's for the long-term Contingency plans reportedly being drawn up for Thames Water collapse | Utilities | The Guardian from bad to worse ! simon wren-lewis on Twitter: "Y'days post: Wishful thinking on UK inflation https://t.co/o5KBlR0a9R Whether workers or firms are causing domestically generated UK inflation is beside the point, as the cure is the same: reduce aggregate demand to match poor supply which reflects disastrous policy since 2016." / Twitter Warren Buffett: How to increase your worth by 50 percent (cnbc.com) Low water again hampers Rhine river shipping in Germany | Reuters here we go again HAVE A GREAT DAY TEAM PVM

Bundesbank may need recapitalisation to cover bond-buying losses and BIS admit (in their report) that the pandemic spending was basically way too big and too long-lasting >>> so now all folks are hit through higher inflation and rates and pay the price for their irresponsible actions... accountability ? ...sadly suspect it will not be any Central Bank's or politician's responsibility.... Russia : Prigozhin's coup may have failed. But it showed Putin's war has failed too – creating the biggest crisis of his rule. Russia uprising updates from June 24: Wagner agrees deal to end armed uprising, Warlord Prigozhin to leave Russia for Belarus >> maybe we reaching some sort of conclusion, maybe the situation deteriorates, depending on who you listen to.. A law firm was fined $5,000 after one of its lawyers used ChatGPT to help research a court brief . The document included references to some cases and opinions that didn't exist... >>>>> The lawyer said he had "no idea" ChatGPT could fabricate information Danone and Kellogg are among 75 consumer goods companies that French authorities have asked to cut prices , according to a list seen by Reuters that sources say the government is using for the initiative German house prices fall by record 6.8% as higher mortgage costs deter buyers BoE : 'The balance of supply and demand in the labour market has got to be made looser. ' 'It will be painful, but the Bank will have to carry on increasing interest rates to bring this about' BoJ : Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsuno: Important For FX to move stably reflecting econ fundamentals - ''Closely watching''FX moves with high sense of urgency. A Bank of Japan policymaker said that the central bank should review its yield cap program “at an early stage,” noting its high costs, a summary of opinions from a June policy meeting showed Monday FED : markets continue to digest Powell's testimony that signaled more hikes into year-end, though Bostic pushed back against the idea saying he would hold rates at current levels for long into next year Bitcoin hits more than 1-year high amid BlackRock ETF excitement German business sentiment points to likelihood of longer recession . The Ifo institute said its business climate index fell to 88.5 this month from 91.5 in May Sweden will have an entire city made of wood in 2027 Die Liquiditätskrise bei der Credit Suisse hat sogar die Nationalbank überrasch t. Für sein langes Zusehen gerät nun SNB-Präsident Thomas Jordan in die Kritik TRY hits a new low near $26 , only the Argentine Peso had a more torrid year, down 30% YTD Markets : Equity markets 'toppy' since OpEx Friday 10days ago , internals weak, S&P7 slightly off top, going to be a long summer Bond curve volatile still, higher for longer, inversions etc USDollar mixed, CROSSJPY's : looking for sign of a peaking process, CHFJPY opportunity to short up here (long-term), looks way overdone. USDCHF struggling to regain .9000+, ecent rallies, USDCNH 7.24 now .. AUDUSD struggling still to hold on to any rallies Commods a little higher, crude a little higher on Russia, after a torrid week last week Broadly speaking stuff like BUBA news, and higher for longer rates, are slowly but surely beginning to weigh on consumer sentiment and spending habits...going to be a long stretch till rates actually come off, bad credit #HYG should come under pressure next over next few months, as rates stay high for longer. PMI in Europe were pretty weak last week, including French services PMI. Bull market status teetering in places | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) Excellent podcast as usual - nice 17mins roundup Annual Economic Report 2023 (bis.org) They admit that with 'the benefit of insight'..really..??!... that the emergency monetary and fiscal spending during pandemic was way too big basically!''...shocking And now folks pay the price for their irresponsible actions ? accountability ? Geldpolitik: Der Bundesrechnungshof warnt vor Verlusten der Bundesbank (wiwo.de) Financial Times on Twitter: "Bundesbank may need recapitalisation to cover bond-buying losses https://t.co/LJE6Neg8aO" / Twitter Kritik an Thomas Jordan: Hat der Präsident der Nationalbank beim CS-Debakel zu lange gezögert? | Tages-Anzeiger (tagesanzeiger.ch) BOJ member called for review of yield cap program at June meeting | The Japan Times ‘A huge humiliation’: failed putsch exposes deep flaws in Putin’s regime | Financial Times (ft.com) the pro's and con's of it all (and consequences) won't be known for a while Russia uprising updates from June 24: Wagner agrees deal to end armed uprising, Warlord Prigozhin to leave Russia for Belarus | Financial Times (ft.com) Basket case Britain is back – and a recession is inevitable (telegraph.co.uk) Electric Vehicles May Be Too Hazardous for Teen Drivers (newsweek.com) German house prices fall by record 6.8% as higher mortgage costs deter buyers | Financial Times (ft.com) good! new generation will get better prices Danone, Kellogg among 75 companies France has asked for price cuts - document (yahoo.com) Law Firm Fined $5K for Using ChatGPT to Write Brief With Fake Cases (businessinsider.com) Crash der Struki-Glamour-Leonteq - Inside Paradeplatz Bitcoin hits more than 1-year high amid BlackRock ETF excitement | Reuters UBS: A Real Bargain? (finews.asia) France has nearly vanquished inflation crisis of the last year, but will face stronger price pressure in the years to come, Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire says L'inflation ne reviendra pas aux niveaux « très faibles » d'avant la pandémie selon Bruno Le Maire (latribune.fr) German business sentiment points to likelihood of longer recession | Reuters Why more and more German citizenship applicants are suing the Berlin government - The Local Sweden will have an entire city made of wood in 2027 (interestingengineering.com) North Koreans warn of nuclear 'war of revenge' at rallies denouncing US (telegraph.co.uk) crazy world of crazy propaganda and fake news Japan may have entered 9th COVID-19 wave: virus expert - Nikkei Asia

France Composite PMI output Index at 47.3 (May: 51.2). 28-month low, expected 51.0, consumers finally getting the script ? the ECB doves will see this as a welcoming sign..>>> service sector that had been the engine of growth in the spring, is now back into contraction/decline, as higher rates add to consumer headwinds.., German manuf PMI weaker too, services held a little bit better BoE hikes 50bps (slightly more than 30 priced), and makes a few dovish comments (self defeating for inflation expectations tbh).. .>>> GBP weakens a little >>> and this morning : UK consumer morale touches 17-month high despite inflation pain - GfK, and that's 'the' problem right there. Many economist calling this move 'catastrophic error of overtightening'.. (the mistake was made 1-2y ago, for being blind and doing too much QE, when inflation was clearly not going to be temporary..now everyone pays for the mistake of the CB - not just UK btw, but more accute there because of Brexit and change in labour market.. ) SNB hikes 25bps, as expected >>> another hike coming in Sep coming , inflation outlook was hawkish! Turkish CB (after 10 straight rate cuts..)...hikes from 8.5% to 15% (..market was expecting nearer to 20%..) >>> not enough, USDTRY goes another 5% higher to 24.50 area Powell : Fed may raise capital requirements for big banks by 20% , KRE was already struggling on higher rates, then most banks were off a little on this >> more hikes coming '' it'll be appropriate to raise rates again this year, perhaps twice '' Beijing on Friday upgraded its warning for hot weather to "red" - the highest in a colour-coded alert system - saying most parts of the Chinese capital could roast in temperatures of up to 40 degrees Celsius (104 Fahrenheit) U.S. President Joe Biden and Narendra Modi hailed a new era in their countries' relationship after the White House rolled out the red carpet for the Indian prime minister on Thursday, touting deals on defense and commerce aimed at countering China's global influence Japan core inflation (so excluding fresh food and energy costs) came in higher than expected at 4.3% YoY, this is a 42-year high Former member of BoE MPC, Prof Blanchflower: "Supply shocks are not fixed by interest rates. You have to ask: how come inflation is 8.7% in the UK, but tumbling everywhere else? One answer is Brexit. The other reason is that the credibility of UK policy makers is trashed." - bravo - well said Markets : Higher Terminal rates, high(er) for longer, slowly putting pressure back on stocks, commods (copper, crude down) and AUD >>> in a few months, IMHO, many CB's will 'have' to acknowledge that they had been (currently) looking too much in the rear view mirror... but timing is Very hard VIX super low similar levels seen in previous decade before a nasty reaction (timing is Very hard to tell in short-term though too) German 2s10s yield curve inverts most since 1992, markets pricing ECB Peak below 4% for the First Time since Monday USDCNH grinding higher still, 7.22 latest, the likes of EURJPY looks way way overdone on topside Fed's Powell reinforces likelihood of more rate hikes because of persistently high inflation (yahoo.com) and Powell Says Wall Street Faces Higher Capital Requirements (yahoo.com) .. force bank to buy all your UST's that will have to be issued ?... Otavio (Tavi) Costa on Twitter: "No, this is not another chart of $NVDA........ It's the US federal debt. The government has already issued close to $638 billion worth of US Treasuries since the debt ceiling was extended While this tends to happen after an agreement is reached, it is important to note that… https://t.co/NL6U0tfuaZ" / Twitter Fund any kind of growth with more debt >>> hard to see how this story ends well (not too dissimilar on other countries mind..) Charlie Bilello on Twitter: "The $VIX closed below 13 today for the first time since January 2020. Lowest close during 2000-02 bear market (Aug 2000): 16.53 Lowest close during 2007-09 bear market (May 2008): 16.30 https://t.co/oMepJmhqlv" / Twitter Biden, Modi hail new era for US-India ties and tout deals | Reuters "We are creating a strong and futuristic partnership," Indian Prime Minister Modi said about US tech companies' decision to invest in his country Beijing steps up hot weather alert to highest level | Reuters Leitzinserhöhung der SNB - Mieten bleibt teuer – kaufen auch - News - SRF Switzerland Today - SWI swissinfo.ch Brexit was never going to make the UK better off, says former Chancellor Lord Hammond - LBC too late ! UK consumer morale touches 17-month high despite inflation pain - GfK | Reuters Banks summoned on mortgages after interest rate shock - BBC News so government is going to tell banks how to behave ?..not good Class Action Suit Targets Former Credit Suisse Executives (finews.asia) Almost inevitable.. Titanic sub search - live: 'Debris consistent with catastrophic loss of pressure chamber' as all five on board Titan 'lost' | World News | Sky News OPINION: Does rural France actually need 'saving'? - The Local The London Economic on Twitter: "“You were told that it would be pain-free. You were told that it would all be upsides, no downsides” Alastair Campbell claims the British public were “lied to” by "conmen Johnson and Farage" and calls for Boris Johnson to be held accountable ☟ #BBCQT https://t.co/fncIXTiluM" / Twitter Japan Inflation Rises Faster Than Forecast, Fueling BOJ Policy Tweak Speculation - Bloomberg Banks slammed for dragging their feet in passing on interest rate rises to loyal savers | Evening Standard Students switch to AI to learn languages - BBC News have a great friday and weekend team PVM

SNB hikes 25bps, as expected ( rise in rents risk to higher inflation, underlying inflation pressure rising further etc, SNB has 'sold' forex' in recent quarters', cannot rule out further monetary policy tightening), Norges hikes 50bps, slightly more than expected , and rates may well be raised further in August, hammer down ( inflation is markedly above target ) Fed Chair Powell said policymakers expect interest rates will need to move higher to reduce US growth to below its long-term trend and contain price pressures >>> they would like to pause (macro data softer, but employment data still strong), but fear it will be a mistake, so skipping with still finger on the button to hike if data is stronger Crypto-related stocks, Coinbase & the likes of MicroStrategy have been in rally mode after Bitcoin soared back to $30k, 12months high, growing optimism of a spot-BTC ETF, with BlackRock, Invesco, and Wisdom Tree filing for a spot bitcoin ETF, which could renew demand from institutional investors, all of which is exactly what the SEC wanted A once-shuttered California mine is trying to transform the rare-earth industry >>> need to compete with China's dominance in this field.. Credit Suisse's troubled past is UBS's present and A lawsuit filed in a New York court on Tuesday accused former bosses Thomas Gottstein, Tidjane Thiam and Brady Dougan, and several other executives of doing excessively risky trades to achieve high short-term returns and bonuses. How Brexit killed the expat dream . Post-Brexit travel rules are killing any hopes of la dolce vita Texas power prices jump 100% as record heat wave sends demand soaring The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is more popular with voters than ever before , soaring to 20 percent of vote in the latest Sunday poll, released every week by INSA on behalf of Bild newspaper. It has never reached this level in an INSA poll before Goldman: Hedge funds have net sold US equities in 9 of the past 10 trading session s (99th percentile over the last five years) Markets : 1year money, UST's, corporate bonds (not all but many) and S&P earnings 'yield' 5,25%... this hasn't happened for long while, all markets competing for capital flows GOLD vs BTC, are we back at this game ? lower XAU vs higher BTC ? this at a time when BRICS+ physical demand for XAU has been on the increase BTC back above 30K - irrelevant of the actual price, imho the move from major players into spot BTC ETF's etc is exactly what was required long-term Terminal rates higher overall in few places, UK focus next, BoE should do 50bps and get on with it.. Equity markets - may well have put a top last 48hours, post OpEx etc. momentum change, higher Terminal rates, nothing dramatic, but do watch out , always worth taking some profits fi you been riding the AI / SPX7 wave Swiss central bank raises rates again, signals may need to do more | Reuters La BNS relève son taux directeur à 1,75% - Blick Norway central bank raises rate to 3.75% (rte.ie) Bank of England poised to raise rates after inflation shock | Reuters They have been late for 2years, have very little credibility, and everyone ends up paying the price for their incompetence (together with crazy populist government), they will do 25bps, but might as well do 50bps now and get on with it ON top of it all !... Interest Rates, Inflation Drive UK National Debt Above 100% of GDP - Bloomberg Doctors say HCA hospitals push patients into hospice care to improve mortality stats (nbcnews.com) what a brilliant bit of research, this is pretty terrible - to say the least! Insufficient prototype testing could put Titanic sub passengers in extreme danger, a lawsuit says (yahoo.com) always faster, quicker delivery of most things, then the thinking starts and the lawsuits follow... Revived California Mine Seeks to Transform Rare-Earth Industry (gizmodo.com) Credit Suisse's Troubled Past is UBS's Present (finews.asia) Three former Credit Suisse CEOs accused of excessive risk-taking -court filing | Reuters How Brexit killed the expat dream - The New European Willem Middelkoop on Twitter: "Huge demand for physical gold by BRICS+ A gold breakout can happen any moment now https://t.co/NLSodqQXeR" / Twitter Bitcoin Jumps on Speculation BlackRock ‘May Know Something’ (yahoo.com) Ten Norway tourist favourites that are cheaper because of the low krone - The Local Fake Meat Companies Are Failing as Money Dries Up and Demand Slows - Bloomberg indeed, was always far too expensive, and not even more healthy Texas Power Prices Jump 100% As Record Heat Wave Sends Demand Soaring (businessinsider.com) Alain Berset: "Die politische Kultur der Schweiz hat sich verändert" - SWI swissinfo.ch Far-right surge triggers alarm in Germany – POLITICO Otavio (Tavi) Costa on Twitter: "Brazilian stocks are historically cheap with a total market cap that is approximately 50% of its money supply and less than 35% of its GDP. Previous instances of such low valuations have presented excellent long-term investment opportunities. To provide context: The overall… https://t.co/ikNPVPchJW" / Twitter Feeling opportunist ? Holger Zschaepitz on Twitter: "Good Morning from Germany, which is well on its way to becoming the sick man of Europe again. While elsewhere in Europe forecasts being taken upwards, consensus expectations for Germany pointing downwards, despite the fact that Germany has just announced biggest population jump… https://t.co/5FUYdqOgMD" / Twitter have a great day Team PVM

Dragon boat festival starts in China, HK and al AAPL : Apple is trying to trademark a very simple imagine of an apple. Swiss farmers used an image of the fruit in their logo for decades, the tech company is now suing them AI-powered teddy bears could read personalized bedtime stories to kids within 5 years , the boss of a major toy producer said UK inflation stuck at 8.7% in another cost-of-living shock, core UP from 6.8 to 7.1%.. >>> inflation doesn't go down just because PM says it will, in reality core has risen nearly 1pct, 50bps hike would still mean a real 50bps cut.. Musk Says Tesla hopes to invest in India after Modi meeting BTC - lots of big new ETF issuers and different setup , this is quite probably pretty bullish and exactly what the SEC wanted to happen long-term - EDX crypto exchange goes live offering bitcoin and ether trading, backed by Schwab and Fidelity 40 million Americans will have to pay an average of $350 a month after a ~3 year pause That's a $14 billion PER MONTH burden on American consumers, on top of inflation, rising rates, and layoffs SEK hit a new record-low vs the EURO around 11.80, that's a 50% depreciation over the last 10years "Both retail and institutional investor sentiment has reached its highest levels in over 2 years and registered readings in the top quintile of the past several decades" --Morgan Stanley Markets : Equity markets slightly softer (higher terminal rates and timing post OpEx) USD mixed, GBP weaker on higher inflation data (and too slow hike, reals etc), CROSSJPY's still firm(er)m USDCNH 7.20 nearly.. Rates all about Terminal rates that have moved higher lately, 4pct in Europe, 6pct in UK and so on, most obviously related sector to '' higher for longer' rates will continue to struggle GOLD needs to head backl to $1950-75+ for the bulls to come back How did the date of Dragon Boat Festival come about - Chinadaily.com.cn The Kobeissi Letter on Twitter: "BREAKING: Citadel, Fidelity and Charles Schwab to launch new crypto exchange platform, EDX Markets. Just a week ago, the SEC sued Binance and Coinbase, two of the world’s largest crypto exchanges. The next few months are going to be really interesting for crypto investors." / Twitter EDX crypto exchange goes live offering bitcoin and ether trading, backed by Schwab and Fidelity (msn.com) Musk Says Tesla Hopes to Invest in India After Modi Meeting (yahoo.com) Electric vehicle maker Rivian says it will follow General Motors and Ford and join Tesla’s charging network next year, TSLA winning that ''charging network war!'' Biden labels China's President Xi a dictator (cnbc.com) AI Teddy Bears Could Read Bedtime Stories to Kids by 2028: Toymaker (businessinsider.com) So sad! UBS set to pay huge fines over Credit Suisse's Archegos failings (cityam.com) Water shortage: Switzerland’s blue gold is under pressure - SWI swissinfo.ch UK inflation stuck at 8.7% in another cost-of-living shock (msn.com) jeroen blokland on Twitter: "The UK just can't get an #inflation break! UK Core #CPI unexpectedly rose 0.3 percentage points to 7.1% in May and is still RISING! With recent monetary policy updates from the #FederalReserve (two more rate hikes this year) and #ECB (hiking until after summer), a scenario of… https://t.co/aERw5i5ROu" / Twitter George Osborne rejects claims austerity depleted NHS (thelondoneconomic.com) Missing Titanic Sub Once Faced Massive Lawsuit Over Depths It Could Safely Travel To | The New Republic good lord It's official: Student loan payments will restart in October (cnbc.com) Apple sues Swiss fruit farmers over apple logo | Popular Science (popsci.com) Holger Zschaepitz on Twitter: "#ECB Balance Sheet is shrinking again: Total assets dropped by €4.7bn to €7,709.7bn, lowest level in 2yrs. ECB Balance Sheet now equal to 57% of Eurozone GDP vs Fed's 32%, SNB's 121%, and BoJ's 130%. https://t.co/BqGWV8C6VF" / Twitter Will there really be flying taxis at the 2024 Paris Olympics? - The Local Russia says it downed 3 drones outside Moscow, suspects it was attack by Ukraine | AP News Have a great day Team PVM

U.S. national debt spiked by $572 billion reaching a record $32 trillion since the debt ceiling was suspended 2 weeks ago UK 2y yields jump above 5% for 1st time since 2008 ahead of the BoE's interest rate decision on Thursday... Markets are pricing in another rate hike to 4.75%. The terminal rate is now just under 6% Furious San Francisco mayor fires back at GMA claim it’s ‘too dangerous to film’ in city’s downtown area , Californian dream breaking US office buildings are only about 50% as full as before Covid : Kastle Systems. Columbia & NYU professors estimate that the value of office property across US cities is 38% lower than pre-pandemic, equaling a loss of about $500 billion Blinken and Qin Gang held "candid" talks for a longer-than-expected 7hours, agreeing to maintain high-level ties. Qin accepted an invitation to Washington and called for "stable, predictable" relations. Blinken may also meet Xi Jinping — who Joe Biden said he also hopes to meet within months.Blinken says he failed to revive military-to-military talks with China German producer price deflation is gaining breadth . Over 40% out of 99 basket items with falling prices atm. Disinflation is increasingly spreading from energy and very commodity heavy intermediate goods sectors into downstream sectors.. German PPI collapsed to 1% in May, down from 4.1% in April, a good leading indicator of consumer Koreans Buying Gold Bars from Vending Machines as Global Inflation Soars. "People in their 20s & 30s appear to be the main buyers, purchasing physical" The construction of new US factories is hitting unprecedented levels The former CEO of Credit Suisse wanted to realize his dream and shake up investment banking. His plan does not seem to be working out with Exos Financial Markets : Commodities had best week in over a year / Saxo article below Equities, specifically S&P7 powered ahead last week, again, NQ had best week YTD too, watch Terminal rates across board, if they continue higher, risk should react lower/ might well have seen some sort of a peak late last week on OpEx day! USdollar had a bad week, though more of a big CROSSJPY's up move in reality, never fails when yields globally and risk do well, crossjpy's do well - as Terminal rate nudged up again, risk and crossjpy's come under pressure last 24hours...AUDUSD a little softer on RBA minutes, might pause again after 2 hikes lately De-dollarisation unstoppable, BRICS cooperation fostering multi-polar currency world (iol.co.za) >>> "De-dollarisation is occurring ten times faster than the decline witnessed in the previous two decades. From 2021 to 2022, the dollar’s share in global reserves dropped eight points, from 55% to 47%, compared to 73% in 2001." Koreans Now Buying Gold Bars From Vending Machines as Global Inflation Soars - The Messenger Commodity weekly: Best month in over a year | Saxo Group (home.saxo) Bank of England risks steering UK into needless recession (cityam.com) Stock Markets: The Chinese dragon's still dozing (cnbc.com) 6 June 2023 | Minutes of the Monetary Policy Meeting of the Board | RBA A factory boom is finally happening (yahoo.com) (2) Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA on Twitter: "U.S. national debt spiked by $572 billion reaching a record $32 trillion since the debt ceiling was suspended 2 weeks ago. The act signed was called the “Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023” You can’t make this stuff up. https://t.co/C1rn6RcpeY" / Twitter Wall Street Sours on America’s Downtowns - WSJ Californian dream breaking : Owners of San Francisco’s Westfield shopping mall walk away citing “grow­ing num­ber of re­tail­ers and busi­nesses leav­ing area due to un­safe con­ditions for cus­tomers, re­tail­ers, and em­ploy­ees”. Half mall’s re­tail­ers closed since 2020. Nord­strom closure was last straw. San Fran­cisco has lost some 7.5% of its pop­u­la­tion— larger share than any other US ma­jor city — as residents flee crime wave and urban squalor for Bay Area exurbs and, increasingly, other states Furious San Francisco mayor fires back at GMA claim it’s ‘too dangerous to film’ in city’s downtown area (msn.com) What Does Westfield Mall Closing Mean for San Francisco? (yahoo.com) (2) Keith McCullough on Twitter: "$NVDA #MOAB The stock trades just over 30x it’s cumulative 21st century GAAP net income Every 1% move in the share price = $11 BILLION in market cap which is almost 2x their current peak in annual free cash flow excluding stock based comp https://t.co/Y3WX5RsQ2L" / Twitter Whistleblowing banker who went to prison speaks out - BBC News Why only the soldier gets hammered, management? board ? treasury, everyone knew.. (2) Oliver Rakau on Twitter: "German producer price deflation is gaining breadth. Over 40% out of 99 basket items with falling prices atm. Disinflation is increasingly spreading from energy and very commodity heavy intermediate goods sectors into downstream sectors. https://t.co/LN11Id2ljJ" / Twitter Boris Johnson latest: MPs back partygate report - as only seven vote in favour of ex-PM (telegraph.co.uk) Tim Martin says we could soon be seeing £10 pints (thelondoneconomic.com) >>> clear Brexit win!!? >>> Tim Martin famously pledged to slash the price of booze in his pubs to an “unbelievably low” price after Brexit Brady Dougan's Shattered Dream (finews.com) CS-Direktoren auf Psycho-Couch - Inside Paradeplatz Australian hydrogen fuel cell power group H2X will supply 37 trucks to Renova in Sweden to collect waste and is raising $10m in capital (afr.com) French police search Paris Olympics HQ | Olympic Games | The Guardian Titanic submarine missing: Diver on tragic expedition says remaining crew ‘positive’ they’ll find friends | The Independent Happy Tuesday Team PVM

BOJ announces no change to JGB Yield Curve Control tolerance band, as widely expected, ignoring trend of higher rates in RoW, no wonder JPY weakening, how much longer? Ueda: we have not changed policy because Japan's inflation is not sustainable The ECB might have to continue with interest-rate increases after the summer, according to Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel, ECB's Rehn: Future decisions will continue to follow a data-dependent approach $2.2 Trillion notional $SPX / $SPY contracts are set to expire today during the quarterly expiration, this will be the largest June OpEx on record - yesterday, there was the highest daily call buying of SPX ion history.. >>> stuff like this cannot continue for much longer, (famous last words), technically we can push towards 4600 SPX JulyOpex though, final kind of push? Why hasn’t the economy responded more to higher rates? A key reason, must be (partly at least..) that monetary policy works primarily through the housing market, and the huge amount of fixed-rate mortgages done last few years....has blunted the impact of Fed rate hikes (and other CB's..) - different duration in some countries clearly.. China’s real estate investment shrank at a faster pace in May, underscoring the industry’s struggle as a market recovery loses stream >>> UBS (and others) lowered its forecast for China’s 2023 economic growth to 5.2%, from 5.7% previously U.S MM funds saw outflows of $4.66bn in week ended June 14th..ICI >>>> all jumping into equity markets again....FOMO like.. . this is first outflow since April tax day Boris Johnson has "built his career on basically playing against the truth and for the first time, the truth has won the game." Markets : FED : hawkish skip/pause was confirmed, as expected, dots 50bps highe r, July and Sep maybe in play, 14 priced for July and 3-4bps in September ECB : delivered the fully priced 25bps , more to come, now with 22 for Aug and 15bps priced for Sep, ''not thinking about pausing'', Depo Rate to 3.50%, highest since 2001, and main Refi to 4%, highest since 2008 BoE : will do 25bps minimum, with 30bps or so priced , could move to 50bps straight away and 5.75% by year-end, CABLE over 1y highs, helpful ! BoJ does nothing again, speculation pushed back to July..it will come one day, very hard to tell when (best play a shift, via options), meanwhile with higher yields and risk, CROSSJPY's been on fire Equity markets : on fire, momentum , tech/AI driven still (300bps in reals and it will force profit taking-Hartnett), Nikkei (multi decades), AAPL, MSFT new ATH's. SPX at 75 RSI.. FXland all been about higher CROSSJPY's while BoJ stays put, risk and RoW yields up.. Hawkish ECB gets traction, especially as BoJ remains unmoved. | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) Holger Zschaepitz on Twitter: "#ECB wants to reduce its balance sheet more quickly. Will discontinue APP asset reinvestments in July. https://t.co/DECrIN94bt" / Twitter Bank of England to hoist interest rates to 5.75 per cent (cityam.com) China’s Property Investment Slides Further as Housing Recovery Staggers - Caixin Global Wall St bank job cuts set to surpass 11,000 as CEOs unwind hiring binge | Financial Times (ft.com) GS goes bearish....? 1. " We see a much higher-than-average chance of a 5% SPX down-move over the next month. 2. Continued weak ISM new orders suggest a weak outlook among US manufacturing managers. Also, the decline in FCF yield of S&P 500 companies shows that they are in a weaker position to weather a slow economy in the context of higher interest rates. These variables have statistically proven to be significant indicators of elevated downside asymmetry for equities. 3. While our estimate of the probability of downside asymmetry over the next month is in its 99th percentile vs the past 27 years, put prices are only in their 20th percentile. Result: The gap between our expected probability of downside and put prices is in its 100th percentile vs the past 27 years". (GS derivs) UBS Plays Good Cop, Bad Cop (finews.asia) and charts PowerPoint Presentation (podbean.com) Double Down News on Twitter: "Pete Oborne Demolishes Boris Johnson’s Legacy @obornetweets https://t.co/kZuOMqArxV" / Twitter don't worry he'll be more than fine... Boris Johnson starts new job as Daily Mail columnist day after report found he lied to Parliament (inews.co.uk) BBC Newsnight on Twitter: ""I'm standing up for what I think is right" WATCH: @vicderbyshire questions Conservative MP Brendan Clarke-Smith on his continued support for Boris Johnson following today's damning report. https://t.co/AlYRBTxHmh https://t.co/onBLt2BeKW" / Twitter mindboggling stuff - great interview though Scrapping inheritance tax won’t help the Tories win over young voters - CityAM Zimbabweans hit by rising prices as local currency plummets | Reuters Stuff of nightmares Foxtons chief tells sellers to ‘get a little bit more competitive with pricing’ - Property Industry Eye Huge landslide narrowly misses Swiss mountain village - SWI swissinfo.ch whaoo, what a terrible situation, village been emptied while though, but imagine having lived there all your life.. Anton Gerashchenko on Twitter: ""What is the defense minister's daughter doing these days?" - Prigozhin is picking on Shoigu again. The split in Russian "elites" continues to deepen. https://t.co/hhSfBnkq9K" / Twitter always hard to tell what is really going over there, but there you go Tymofiy Mylovanov on Twitter: "Reuters reports on the state of the counteroffensive in Ukraine. The main takeaways: Ukrainian gains most rapid since last November Kyiv yet to reach main Russian defences Bulk of Ukrainian forces still waiting in wings 0/ https://t.co/aSB1VMNEJ4" / Twitter Odey's hedge fund set to be broken up (cityam.com) Wall Street banker accidentally sent sex tape to colleague (telegraph.co.uk) have a wonderful Friday and sunny weekend team PVM

FED would love a few months to 'ponder'... Powell : ''A rate cut this year won’t be appropriate, inflation hasn’t moved down, hasn’t reacted to existing rate hikes, so we’re going to have to keep at it.”, added "talking about a couple of years out’ for rate cuts, suib par growth for a while may be necessary to bring down inflation'' >>Markets disagree, price first cut for Jan 2024 at the moment (remember the 80bps of cuts priced in 2023...gone) >> so as expected, #hawkishskip , higher , the significant increase of the median dot for 2024 likely has the biggest impact (even though pencilling in -2- additional rate hikes for 2023 is also pretty impressive). It means that the odds of a large decline in the #FED Target Rate next year are (way) down >>> BUT towards the end , on the soft side of things, Powell said 'The conditions we need to see in place to get inflation down are coming into place, including lower growth and labor slack, we get closer & closer to the destination.”... assessing additional information and its implications U.S May PPI : +1.1% vs. +1.5% est. & +2.3% prior; core PPI +2.8% vs. +2.9% est. & +3.2% prior - freefalling! but for Powell it's all about core inflation and employment Bank of Canada's Beaudry : higher for long er (full speech below) Pence says he can’t defend alleged Trump crimes in classified documents indictment Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan blusters that "terrorists were holding demos on the streets of Sweden" as he blocks the Scandinavian nation from joining NATO China trims key lending rate as new data shows flagging recovery. Property investment down 7.2% in first five months, youth joblessness rises, same old action, not having much impact anymore..rate curts giving 'hopes', but economy still losing momentum, does NOT bode well for next few quarters US Companies Scramble to Cuts Costs, Pay Down Debt as Interest Rates Surge (as you would expect) - BBG article S&P 500 will finish the year at 3900 warns Morgan Stanley's CIO Mike Wilson. Wilson says that inflation cooling will be bad for stocks as that is where most of the recent earnings strength has come from >> he is persistent in his view! long way to go to 31.Dec BIDEN: "I signed an executive order to make 'environmental justice' the responsibility of every single federal department"...ok what does this mean exactly ?.. UK : Nicholas Watt, "I was told it takes two hours to read the contents of the report. It is damning. And it is damning on page after page." Markets : FX land : USD mixed, more about CROSSJPY's higher on higher yields (higher for longer) and risk, ECB will do 25bps today, SNB 25bps next week and BoE 25bps (small risk of 50bps), BoJ will be 'concerned' about renewed JPY weakness (PPI etc..) Bonds all about the curve, dec 2023/dec 2024 etc, rate cuts pushed further out, higher for longer etc. No more cuts priced for 2023 (was 80bps 2months ago..) , first cut priced in Jan 2024 ish, which is not what FED is saying still.. Equity markets not too bothered, until we actually see unemployment higher, thus hit some sort of recession >>> sentiment/RSI etc : Extreme greed trading at levels last seen at February highs...but of course, back then we had no AI Crude stays low, good for consumers WOAH... Reporter: What do you think about the projections of $51T in debt by 2040? Powell: That's not our problem. My job is to remain independent. I know we're on an unsustainable fiscal path but that is Treasury's responsibility. Reporter: would you finance that huge debt issuance? Powell: No, under no circumstances.. China's youth unemployment hits a fresh record high in May, major data disappoint (msn.com) >>> The unemployment rate for young people ages 16 to 24 rose to 20.8% in May , a record and above the high set in April. The jobless rate for people of all ages in cities was 5.2% in May. BofA: Fund Manager Confidence in China Shrinks (finews.asia) >>> all gone to NIKKEI ! Patrick Zweifel on Twitter: "1/ Chinese activity data for May confirm April’s loss of momentum, driven by construction activity The supply of residential space fell further to its lowest level since Nov 2008, while rising residential demand, barely visible on the chart, remains at its cyclical low https://t.co/LgLrKBTdfh" / Twitter Do you remember the Family Guy joking with the Nike commercial with "Do not only have one family. Have a second family all across the country...."? GS derivs goes full Family Guy on buying laggards by not just buying laggards but buying calls on laggards.... "we see a potential rally in stocks where GS analysts are Buy rated and option prices are attractive but investors are not yet bullishly positioned. We provide an estimate of implied returns for call buyers if these stocks were to rally and hit their current 12-month price targets in the medium-term. We highlight 10 stocks in the note with high implied call-buying returns" (GS) Nick Timiraos on Twitter: "An Interesting speech from Paul Beaudry, the deputy governor of the Bank of Canada, on a higher-for-longer rate outlook He highlights why the real neutral rate may have arrested its steady decline and why there's "a meaningful risk that it could go up." https://t.co/g3H95ZNz4H https://t.co/deWsoiH2gA" / Twitter US Companies Scramble to Cuts Costs, Pay Down Debt as Interest Rates Surge - Bloomberg Why Sunak's crypto investment quote has the tech industry excited (cityam.com) Johnson’s aide nominated for peerage appears to have exaggerated time spent at Number 10 - Tortoise (tortoisemedia.com) >>> something fishy going on here ! Forget Boris Johnson, it’s the ‘Tory mortgage penalty’ that is Rishi Sunak’s biggest enemy (inews.co.uk) >>>> Bojo (and the likes of Trump) actually wants to break the system, guys like them only thrive in a broken system. So they keep pushing the system to its breaking point — where rules are for idiots and morons, norms are for foolish folks and basic truths are malleable.” Starbucks says it fired her for an 'absence of leadership.' She says it was because of her race. A jury returned a $25.6 million verdict in her favor | CNN Business what a world ! Mike Pence won't defend Trump classified documents indictment (cnbc.com) Logitech: The CEO's Departure Adds To An Already Complicated Normalization Story (msn.com) Nadine Dorries refuses to resign officially until No 10 explains her lack of peerage | Nadine Dorries | The Guardian quel joke this all is, in fact it's scandallous Thailand weighs accepting Chinese engine in submarine deal - Nikkei Asia Totally insane stuff - watch Daily Loud on Twitter: "BREAKING: The Rubik’s cube world record has been broken at 3.13 seconds 🎉🤯 https://t.co/nRsvWTuAIm" / Twitter Cost-of-living squeeze puts Swiss households at poverty risk - SWI swissinfo.ch Electricity imports surpass nuclear power in the UK - Energy Live News madness

U.S CPI has moved down from 9.1% last June to 4% in May 2023 - not bad! >>> June pause (most likely) confirmed >>> the question now is how explicitly or forcefully the Fed will commit to a July hike, '' hawkish skip being priced for 3weeks' ' is most likely scenario tonight, been priced for 3weeks (anything else is a surprise) >>> over 80 bps of cuts in 2023 was priced just over a month ago, now virtually nothing (still 150bps or so of cuts priced in for 2024) Shipping tax could yield $100 bln climate windfall 10% Of $4.2 Trillion US COVID Relief Was Lost To Fraud, Waste: Report >>> this IS STAGGERING , and it's only for the U.S, we know it happened everywhere!! BARCLAYS: “.. there have only been two comparable instances of such narrow [stock] leadership over the last three decades .. the leaders collapsed in 2000 .. whereas in 2020 the leaders delivered on earnings .. we think the current episode will likely resemble 2020 ..” >> everyone saying the same thing >>> SPX500 is now above every single WallStreet estimate (pretty much)...BANKS are ALL rushing to raise their targets on SPX, GS just raised target to 4500 from 4000 Singapore Deputy Prime Minister: “Countries in ASEAN and around the world do not wish to choose sides. It's every country’s interest, especially the U.S. and China, to develop a new architecture that enables inclusive and sustainable development.” Greenpeace activists on Wednesday scaled Deutsche Bank's headquarters in Frankfurt and strung a large yellow banner across part of the facade to protest the investment policies of the German lender and its asset management company DWS China to cut gasoline , diesel retail prices May ranked as the largest month of buying of US equities since 2010 Strong words. Chinese FM Qin Gang just had a call with Blinken and asked him to respect China's core concerns - especially on Taiwan - and to "stop damaging China's sovereignty, security and development interests in the name of competition" >>> China's government bond yield falling rapidly, 10-year bond yield now below 2.6%, soon to export deflation to RoW ..? Brexit : What many forget is that the EU offered the UK an unconditional 12 month extension to the transition period so we could cope with covid without the distraction of Brexit. Brexit was the Tories priority, so the offer was turned dow n. Much of the mess can be put down to this Markets : We fully expect some sort of hawkish skip (is what market being expecting for 3weeks), anything else will be a surprise for markets. Core inflation remains sticky at 5.2% yoy (coming down int he right direction...but..), thus higher for longer, ie the FED wanted to correct and have managed to take out all the cuts that were price din for 2023, right now almost down to very little priced in from -80bps 2months ago (still 150bps priced in for 2024 though) Equity markets been in FOMO mood (May saw largest inflows since 2010) etc >>> We're in one of those weird moments in time when the S&P 500 has already topped the year-end target of strategists. What now?... they will all push year-end targets higher.... USDollar is a mix, USDCNH more influenced by China's problems (2.6% 10y yields..), USDJPY loves a BoJ on hold still (Friday decision), GBP could well 'have' to rally on possible 50bps next week and EURO 1.0650-1.1050 range for now, MXN continues to be favorite EMG Bonds, all about the curve, all ears on Powell presser May ranked as the largest month of buying of US equities since 2010 . US L/S net leverage rose to 12 month highs as a result of the buying. Mega-Cap TMT drove the bulk of the buying in North America pushing net exposure to these names to decade highs. Traditional defensive continued to be bought with May being the 4th largest month of buying since 2018 China to cut gasoline, diesel retail prices-Xinhua (news.cn) Qin Gang calls for US to ‘show respect’, stop undermining China’s interests | South China Morning Post (scmp.com) Africa mulls alternatives to US dollar - Chinadaily.com.cn Best for Britain on Twitter: "🔥Counsel for Covid Inquiry: "The Pandemic hit the UK just as it was leaving the EU [which] required an enormous amount of planning, patricularly a no-deal exit. It is clear that [this] crowded out and prevented some, or perhaps a majority, of improvements to preparedness." ~AA https://t.co/ErUHruk48e" / Twitter This is an absolute hand grenade thrown at the Brexiter fundamentalists . So many reasonable people, even Leave voters, urged the gov’t to just take even a six-month, to not pile one crisis on top of another. But Brexit mattered to them more than people’s health, all going to come out now fwiw - clearly all out of their depth, with covid crisis on top, disastrous mismanagement etc etc - so many things they never saw coming, oh yes because well you know Bojo was a remainer! so he didn't have a f... clue about any of it, other than his own populist garbage, populist ideology over your own country-people-economy.... utter madness it was, always was Edwin Hayward on Twitter: "Nadine Dorries, a tragedy in 4 acts. The lights dim as our play begins... 1) Calls out cronyism in how jobs in the Lords are given out. https://t.co/XEbyUf0R86" / Twitter Fabulous, another one that was a remainer btw Odey threatened to sue financial watchdog over misconduct probe | Financial Times (ft.com) Holger Zschaepitz on Twitter: "#ECB Balance Sheet almost unch ahead of this week's meeting. Total assets now at €7,714.4bn, equal to 57% of Eurozone GDP vs Fed's 32%, SNB's 121%, BoJ's 130%. https://t.co/Dw2O619Ji6" / Twitter What Trump’s Indictment Means for 2024 - Democracy Docket Trump Is Arraigned and Pleads Not Guilty in Documents Case - The New York Times (nytimes.com) Charlie Bilello on Twitter: "US CPI has moved down from a peak of 9.1% last June to 4.0% in May. What's driving that decline? Lower rates of inflation in Fuel Oil, Gasoline, Gas Utilities, Used Cars, Medical Care, Apparel, New Cars, Food at Home, & Electricity. Rates of inflation in Transportation, Food… https://t.co/FhEYu3HE3X" / Twitter Singapore urges feuding China, U.S. to stave off conflict (cnbc.com) UK Parliament Group Calls for Crypto Tsar, Faster Legislation (coindesk.com) Shipping tax could yield $100 bln climate windfall | Reuters Sturgeon was easy to admire from afar – but Scottish friends knew better (telegraph.co.uk) never saw that one coming 🙂 ... that being the best at communicating in front of TVees doesn't necessarily make you good at running a government... cough!... everyone thought she was "progressive".... but what is least progressive thing you can do for your voters or country ?.... Run it badly China Property Developer Luring Home Buyers With Gold Bars (businessinsider.com) Greenpeace climbs Deutsche Bank HQ to protest climate investment policies - SWI swissinfo.ch The Biden administration made $66 million in its oil trade (qz.com) >>> The Biden administration made $66 million in its first oil trade. The US sold 3 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve for $95 and repurchased them at $73 Indiana's getting a $3 billion GM-Samsung EV battery cell plant (detroitnews.com) have a great FOMC day Team PVM