Week ahead : China consumer prices dropped the most in 3years, after slightly stronger than expected NFP on Friday (still tight and growing), we head into U.S CPI tomorrow and PPI, OPEC monthly meeting and FOMC on Wednesday, then ECB and BoE meeting on Thursday >>> markets not expecting or pricing hardly any risk of a hike for this week, clearly the message and the 'dots' for 2024 will matter China CPI down a fastest pace in 3years -0.5% (exp. -0.1%) US corporate earnings: the S&P500’s fate increasingly rests on whether a handful of the biggest tech companies can parlay AI investments into higher profits. 7 Co's, including Microsoft and Nvidia — have driven about 75% of the index’s gain this year. Valuations are high, with the companies’ shares trading at an average of 32 times earnings Bonds extended their November rally as central banks shifted to a far more neutral stance, suggesting rate hikes are basically done. That set off a race among traders to price in a rapid pivot to rate cuts . Only a week after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said it was “ premature ” to speculate about 2024 easing, markets were betting on about a 70% chance the US central bank will start reducing borrowing costs in March. A full percentage point of cuts are now priced in by November 2024, major shift last week, was ECB hawks pulling their wings 2024 outlook for now, is that the world will grow by a modest 2.7% next year / BBG and a huge amount of elections, including of course in teh U.S Xi Jinping warns China’s economic recovery at ‘critical stage’. Communist party Politburo promises ‘proactive’ fiscal and ‘effective’ monetary policy to support growth FED balancesheet down $1.2trn from peak in Aporil 2022 , another $3.6trn covid QE to unwind “We’ve got to cut down on farming due to ‘Climate Change’…or people are going to starve…” -John Kerry .. Markets : Broadly speaking, priced to near perfection ? clearly a more hawkish sounding Powell could derail/stop this upside momentum in equity into year-end UST 10's yields support around 4.00-4.05% held well , right back to 4.25% >>> U.S. debt issuance will be big in 2024 (even if a known known, it will matter) USD picking up a little as BoJ unlikely to move in Dec (never really was likely mind) and FOMC meeting ahead (ECB and BOE behind on Thursday), BoJ early next week Xi Jinping warns China’s economic recovery at ‘critical stage’ ( ft.com ) This Week's Fed Meeting Could Shock Market Rates Higher | Seeking Alpha Generative AI deepfake triggers a national security crisis | Saxo Group ( home.saxo ) No.4 of Saxo's outrageous predictions (not predictions, simply food for thoughts and a chat, it's always good to challenge views out there and discuss Summary:  Generative AI, hailed as a productivity boon, becomes a national security threat after a daring AI deepfake heist against a high-ranking official in a developed country. Governments crack down on AI with new regulations, puncturing the AI hype as VCs flee the industry. Public distrust in AI-generated news soars and governments impose new laws, allowing only a small group of entities to disseminate public news. OSINTdefender on X: "Initial Reports that Israel has given the Lebanese Government and Military a “48-Hour Ultimatum” to begin Negotiations on an Agreement to return Hezbollah to their Positions which were agreed upon by United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701, or else the IDF will launch a… https://t.co/ApwtjKFxCS " / X ( twitter.com ) University of Pennsylvania students react to leaders' resignations ( usatoday.com ) Yemen's Houthis warn they will target all ships headed to Israel | Reuters Political Shakeup May Smooth BOJ Rate Hike Path, Economists Say ( yahoo.com ) Listed companies own over $11 billion in Bitcoin ( thearmchairtrader.com ) Germany's Biggest Ever VC Startup Growth Fund of Fund Aims for 1 Billion EUR - Fintech Schweiz Digital Finance News - FintechNewsCH Argentine President Milei warns economic shock unavoidable in maiden speech | Reuters EURJPY - in middle of our range - so little to suggest here , would prefer to sell a big rally towards 160+ again, but will watch fireworks this week with CB meeting and BoJ next week

FX is alive!! - December markets, classic... nice reaction to rates, both UST and JGB's yesterday, lets see after NFP, broadly speaking we've broken some big support levels in USDJPY and some / most CROSSJPY's, EURJPY moved decently but it is still probably one of the largest long out there - see below (and CHFJPY:.) GS NFP preview: "An all around weak report and I expect the market will likely sharply extend recent moves and may even start entertaining questions such as a potential, January fed cut or whether a March cut could be 50bps" , "A negative trend in the economic data starting to form, so yes, a bad news is bad news narrative will come to the forefront over the next 1-2 months" Weak Eurozone data has fulled a dovish ECB narrative and almost 2 rate cuts priced in April (falling orders, ind prod further down showing a carry over QoQ in Q4) >>> Goldman Sachs Sees ECB Lowering Rates By 25 bps In Each Meeting From April US announces military air exercises in Guyana amid Venezuela tensions as Venezuela’s president orders creation of new state and map including land from Guyana Central Banks are on pace to buy more than 1,000 tons of gold for the 2nd straight year and possibly reach the highest level purchased since 2010 Tory MP Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg’s boutique fund management house Somerset Capital is set to wind down after suffering substantial client redemptions China’s Xi goes full Stalin with purge . In a sign of instability in Beijing’s top ranks, foreign policy and defense officials are vanishing as Xi roots out perceived enemies Reuters reports that the United States believes Iran's Revolutionary Guards is involved in planning, executing and authorizing attacks on Israel and shipping in the Red Sea The 30Y mortgage rate in the US has declined for 6 consecutive weeks, moving from its highest level since 2000 (7.80%) down to 7.00% California is likely to see a $68 billion deficit in its next fiscal year as income tax revenue plummets, according to the state’s budget adviser Markets : UST 10-Year Treasury Yield is fast approaching its 200D moving average - 4.02% WTI Crude Oil has fallen/tested/testing 200dma - 69.75$ >> .. lowest since June 29 .. on pace for its seventh straight weekly loss for the first time since November 2018.” DAX closed on all time highs 16'620 For equity markets, blackout period starts on Monday FXLAND : would agree with RB below >>> long #EURJPY is the most crowded position in the market at mom/still, weaker EU data (dovish ECB now) and BoJ YCC move was not on the card 4-6weeks ago..bit of a capitulation day yesterday, so wait to reload..! Nr 3. of the outrageous Saxo Predictions for 2024 The end of capitalism in the USA | Saxo Group (home.saxo) Summary: The US government is forced to increase fiscal spending exponentially amid the 2024 elections to keep the economy going and avoid social unrest. Due to lingering inflation pressures and foreign investors repatriating capital, demand for US Treasuries remains sluggish, provoking a spike in US Treasury yields. In a desperate attempt to normalise borrowing costs, the US government makes income from government bonds tax-free. Robin Brooks on X: "Biggest position in global FX markets - after many years of BoJ yield curve control (YCC) and a hawkish ECB that (wrongly) played up demand-led inflation - is long Euro / short Yen. Ending YCC and no demand-led inflation in the Euro zone are changing that. Big unwind is coming... https://t.co/4M8Sh9Pbmg" / X (twitter.com) Liz Ann Sonders on X: "In advance of tomorrow, note that payrolls don’t have to go negative in order for economy to be in recession (payrolls were positive in first month of GFC recession); also, negative payroll growth doesn’t necessarily equal recession (see right after recessions ended in ’02 & ’09) https://t.co/dJ6Egm7qCc" / X (twitter.com) Michael Pettis on X: "1/14 Chris Giles is absolutely right to say that when changes in the relative size of two economies are driven by changes in their currency values, there is very little economic meaning in those changes. https://t.co/LPSnLYYLa5 via @ft" / X (twitter.com) Elon Musk appeals dispute over SEC consent decree to US Supreme Court (yahoo.com) Rees-Mogg’s Somerset Capital to wind down after huge client redemptions (msn.com) Brexit impact! China’s Xi goes full Stalin with purge – POLITICO Phew! Jamie Dimon lashes out on crypto: 'If I was the government, I'd close it down' (cnbc.com) California Projects $68 Billion Shortfall on Income-Tax Plunge - Bloomberg Venezuela’s president orders creation of new state and map including land from Guyana (msn.com) zerohedge on X: "Guyana Situation Rapidly Deteriorates As Maduro Arrests Opposition Figures Amid Joint Military Drills With US https://t.co/7JdM0QaxtB" / X (twitter.com) Biden administration asserts power to seize drug patents (cnbc.com) U.S. layoffs jumped in November led by retail and tech, report shows (yahoo.com) #EURJPY - right on cue for ''lack of liquidity december sell off''

The Bank of Japan is in the process of summarizing 10 years of extreme monetary easing . During a workshop at BOJ headquarters on Monday, participants were presented with a report stating that liquidity in the bond market had "generally worsened" due to extreme monetary easing. The BOJ published the contents of the report on Wednesday BATS writes down $31.5 billion from value of U.S. cigarette brands - was always a matter of time till it happened Oil prices falling hard again, anyone want to suggest a date for 'end of cost of living crisis'? Walmart CEO says consumers may not be as resilient next year, even as deflation starts to show Developing potential conflict in South America - as Russia's ally, Venezuela, presses its claim on the Essequibo region of Guyana (note: Commonwealth member), Brazil has moved troops up in support of Guyana (but so far still in Brazil) In the opening round of the fourth primary debate on Wednesday, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie turned to his fellow candidates and implored them to go after the man who wasn’t there: Donald Trump HSBC Boosts Parental Leave for Employees in Hong Kong . Maternity leave raised to 20 weeks, paternity leave to 40 days US Senate Republicans block Ukraine, Israel aid bill over border dispute >>>>> when government split, as they 'have' to make choice on spending.. Muddy Waters is short Blackstone Mortgage Trust REIT China's surprise imports contraction sparks worries over demand The S&P 500 technology sector's relative strength versus the broad market is at its highest level since March 2000 Markets : Yields moved sharply lower on softer data, now ALL economists that were hawkish on rates 1% higher, now react and become all obviously bearish on inflation... >>> JGB's react overnight to BoJ incoming YCC tweak, pushing long-end yields higher overall on weak 30y bond auction - lowest bid/cover ratio since 2015 CROSSJPY's in play lower, finally! >> been a huge carry trade for a while, watch out Dec markets and liquidity (or lack of), NFP tomorrow could also bring some decent vol again! USDJPY - that same chart - below Equity markets 'fading', few Mag 7's struggling a little (crowded trade), so watch out below key short-term supports... SPX500 : reminder 4'550 is exactly where it was 2y ago - quite something, obviously a LOT more going on underneath and in various sectors since Crude lower again Obesity drugs backfire, causing global health crisis | Saxo Group (home.saxo) EU wealth tax and the end of U.S. capitalism: 'Outrageous predictions' (cnbc.com) BAT writes down $31.5 billion from value of U.S. cigarette brands | Reuters One reason why we've avoided this one...that huge goodwill on the books was always going to have to be written-off one day, it has now Ray Dalio on X: "You've heard the expression "no pain no gain." Psychologists have shown that the most powerful personal transformations come from experiencing the pain from mistakes that a person never wants to have again--known as "hitting bottom." So don't be hesitant to give people those… https://t.co/UU2G106KG4" / X (twitter.com) China’s Weak Trade Data Signals More Economic Pain to Come - Bloomberg World in new era of low growth and high interest rates, says BlackRock (telegraph.co.uk) Walmart CEO Doug McMillon talks about deflation (cnbc.com) AMD rolls out new rival to Nvidia’s AI chip (ft.com) Boris Johnson: I wasn’t properly warned about seriousness of Covid | Covid inquiry | The Guardian bless! Robert Jenrick resigns as immigration minister over Rwanda legislation - BBC News >>> "I think that Suella Braverman and Robert Jenrick's resignation and sackings have basically now morphed into a shadow leadership contest." Who won the final Republican debate? | The Independent (the-independent.com) Alabama GOP debate: Haley faces attacks as the candidate on the rise - POLITICO Latvia's Russian-speakers face loyalty test amid Ukraine war (msn.com) Russia-Ukraine war live: US senate blocks bill for further Ukraine aid (theguardian.com) Muddy Waters is short Blackstone Mortgage Trust REIT, Real Estate News, ET RealEstate (indiatimes.com) whaooo Volkswagen-commissioned audit finds no signs of forced labor at plant in China's Xinjiang region (qz.com) THAT USDJPY chart still - sub 145 USDJPY AREA and there could be some fire works and of course equivalent in CROSSJPY's..

U.S Labour market softening was the theme yesterday, with both JOLTs and ISM pointing in that direction >>> 4 of the past 5 JOLTS reports have been revised lower, when the Fed was hiking on misguided "strong" jobs data, the number of US Job Openings fell to 8.7 million in October, the fewest since March 2021. Gradual loosening of the labor market continues J erome Powell: “It would be premature to conclude that we have achieved a sufficiently restrictive stance, or to speculate on when policy might ease." >>>> Market participants: Fed will start cutting rates in March 2024 & continue easing from there Saudi energy minister won't agree to fossil fuel phase-down - Record number of fossil fuel lobbyists get access to Cop28 climate talk " Adobe data showed a sharp increase in online discounting, with apparel prices falling 25% over the course of November , compared to -15.5% during November 2022" - GS As part of an agreement with the US Department of Justice, Switzerland's Pictet has admitted to helping clients evade taxes owed to the Internal Revenue Service and will pay a penalty The world’s largest iceberg is on the move Chief executives from eight of the largest U.S. banks are expected to warn federal lawmakers Wed that tougher regulation on lenders will have dire consequences for the economy German October factory orders fall 3.7% MoM (expected +0.2%) , falling 7.3% YoY >>> Germany's factory orders have grown just -1- out of 20months on an annual basis >>> market is ramping up bets on the extent of monetary easing from the ECB in 2024, with money markets seeing/priced in 150 basis points of interest rate cuts through next year! Markets : DAX on all time highs , NIKKEI rallied again in Asia, while Chinese markets struggled still Crude prices softer, nearly down 20% since peak in Mid Sep >>> U.S. socks buyback also hit an all time high in November, black out period approaching now Equity : The 180 degree shift in US investor sentiment from bearish to bullish over the last 4 weeks was one of the biggest short-term swings on record Yields are falling, as data increasingly surprises/surprised to the downside, sometimes the simpliest explanation are the best A lot is now priced in for 2024, and now a few starting to agree : BlackRock's CIO Rieder says the Fed Funds rate is too restrictive today, sees mid-24 cut Nr 1. of the outrageous Saxo Predictions for 2024 : With oil at $150, Saudis buy Champions League franchise | Saxo Group (home.saxo) to engage a discussion! BlackRock's Rick Rieder doesn't believe the economy is falling off a cliff | Watch (msn.com) Bob Elliott on X: "Equity rally since nearby bottom in late Oct strongly driven by high growth / high beta companies and short covering. With a lot of the reversal behind us, raises questions on how we extend further here without more rates declines. https://t.co/ttuuJPNiZ5" / X (twitter.com) Saudi energy minister won't agree to fossil fuel phase-down (theedgesingapore.com) Record number of fossil fuel lobbyists get access to Cop28 climate talks | Cop28 | The Guardian Yellen says U.S. would be 'responsible for Ukraine's defeat' if aid fails in Congress | Reuters World's largest iceberg A23a is on the move, stoking climate concerns (cnbc.com) Green Christmas: How to have an ethical and guilt-free festive season | New Scientist The renewables business faces a make-or-break moment (economist.com) Recycling (glencore.com) Glencore is a major recycler of end-of-life electronics, lithium-ion batteries, and other critical metal-containing products. We have long been closing the loop for critical metals like copper, nickel, cobalt, zinc and precious metals. We are committed to responsibly sourcing the commodities the world needs to advance everyday life Tesla's cheapest EV will get more expensive in 2024 (qz.com) Swiss Bank Pictet Admits to Helping US Clients Dodge Taxes (finews.asia) Bear cancels Xmas parties, Globus brings in crisis PR firm - Inside Paradeplatz Christmas shopping: 'Buy now, pay later schemes a vicious cycle' - BBC News Call it for what it is, more debt, will only create more issues ging forward for folks Jamie Dimon, Other Big Bank CEOs Warn Congress About Tougher Regulations - Barron's (barrons.com) Timeline: Switzerland and the conflict in the Middle East - SWI swissinfo.ch WTI crude prices

ECB hawk Schnabel scraps more rate hikes after 'remarkable' inflation drop >>> validating market's recent moves and fwd pricing of cuts in 2024 ( some 1.25% of cuts priced in for 2024 already...they are just coming back to where markets are..) The New York Fed's measure of underlying inflation (the "multivariate core trend" rate) ticked down to 2.6% in October from 2.9% in Sept, This was the lowest reading since January 2021 Swiss bank Banque Pictet admits hiding $5.6 billion of Americans’ money from IRS UK announces rise in salary threshold for foreign workers’ visas Airbus might need state backing for new aircraft programme to replace A320, chief says, might bring back competitive/trade issues vs Boeing The Fed's balance sheet is back on April 2021 lows, down $1.15trn from peak in April 2022. Another $3.6trn of QT is required to unwind he massive 'covid-QE between march 2020 to 2022) Moody’s cut its outlook for Chinese sovereign bonds to negative , underscoring deepening global concerns about the level of debt in the world’s second largest economy In 2020, BlackRock chief executive Larry Fink put the world’s largest money manager squarely behind the cause of purpose-driven investing . Three years later, BlackRock is still betting big on the transition to a lower-carbon economy, but the $9.1tn money manager’s emphasis when it talks about sustainability and social issues has changed Zuckerberg and NVDA insiders selling a few shares U.S ISM Manufacturing PMI has been below 50 (in contraction) for 13 straight months , the longest down streak since 2008-09 Algorithms are biased. But humans are a lot more biased Elon Musk: Disney is "World's biggest example of go woke, go broke" Markets : Big Techs, Magnificent 7, no-one will dare calling a top last week, but.. Chinese Stocks have fallen to their lowest prices in 5 years and India's Stock Market Valuation hit $4 Trillion for the first time in history Relatively quiet Equity markets, although some weakness in Nasdaq, big 7's seen over the last 5-6 trading days, whether this is insider or tax related selling or both! it is pretty key into year-end (those big stocks have had a Huuge rally in 2023) USDollar - no real direction - CROSSJPY's slightly softer following forward rates 10's UST could drop to the key 4% area on a weak NFP Friday, after that one would think that a lot/enough/perhaps too much priced in for 2024 ? The end of the road - Saxo Outrageous Predictions 2024 | Saxo Group (home.saxo) Statement by Michele Bullock, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision | Media Releases | RBA Nick Timiraos on X: "The New York Fed's measure of underlying inflation (the "multivariate core trend" rate) ticked down to 2.6% in October from 2.9% in September This was the lowest reading since January 2021 https://t.co/84wzo4UMgK https://t.co/duqE47r20k" / X (twitter.com) Mark Zuckerberg Sells First Meta Shares in 2 Years After 172% Surge - Bloomberg Nvidia Insiders Unload Shares After 220% AI Rally (yahoo.com) Apple, Meta Platforms And 2 Other Stocks Insiders Are Selling (msn.com) Swiss bank Banque Pictet admits hiding Americans' income from IRS (cnbc.com) The real impact of the ESG backlash Elon Musk Once Again Takes A Dig At Disney, Other Advertisers: 'They Will Experience A Meaningful Decline In Distribution' (msn.com) PM Modi flags ‘beware of divisive agenda’ as cracks arise in INDIA bloc | Mint (livemint.com) Live updates: Israel-Hamas war, Gaza airstrikes, UN warns of 'apocalyptic' situation (cnn.com) Russia-Ukraine war at a glance: what we know on day 650 | Ukraine | The Guardian ECB hawk Schnabel scraps more rate hikes after 'remarkable' inflation drop | Reuters UK announces rise in salary threshold for foreign workers’ visas | Migration News | Al Jazeera Virgin Galactic stock tanks after Richard Branson signals no more investments (yahoo.com) Cost of capital has increased... Gold reaches record high today near $2,100 per ounce. Here's what's behind the surge. - CBS News >>> pretty bad set-back on daily charts yesterday though Bitcoin has surpassed $41,000 for the first time since April 2022. What's behind the price surge? (qz.com) Airbus might need state backing for new aircraft programme to replace A320, chief says France puts country on high alert regarding bird flu | Reuters Want Less-Biased Decisions? Use Algorithms. (hbr.org) Hang Seng - just whaoo - no love there ! be opportunistic ? slowly but surely ?

Snow is back with a vengeance Powell's comments sent everything higher on Friday >>> Powell pushed back (didn't try very hard) against growing expectations of rate cuts in 1st half of 2024, so markets didn't buy it.. (10y UST down 15bps on the day)The risks of the Federal Reserve slowing the economy more than necessary have become "more balanced" with those of not moving interest rates high enough to control inflation, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Friday, reaffirming the U.S. central bank's intent to be cautious but also offering fresh optimism on its progress so far "These attacks represent a direct threat to international commerce and maritime security. They have jeopardized the lives of international crews representing multiple countries around the world. We also have every reason to believe that these attacks, while launched by the Houthis in Yemen, are fully enabled by Iran." From one of the most accurate strategists on Wall Street, Hartnett: "...everyone thinks we rally into Valentine’s Day, everyone emotionally bullish, but still intellectually bearish and likely to stay that way until leadership changes" German Finance Minister calls for cuts in social spending . Lindner sets sight on welfare, international financial aid. Not yet’ convinced to suspend debt brake in 2024, he says EU budget dispute threatens €50bn war lifeline for Ukraine US warship and commercial vessels attacked in Red Sea , says Pentagon Meta’s AI chief doesn’t think AI super intelligence is coming anytime soon, and is skeptical on quantum computing Unearthed podcast: Why are central banks stocking up on gold? Markets : Huge November bond rally extended after Powell on Friday, 10's UST could well get down to 4% area, nearly there really, the big move already done >>> lifted all assets again >>> The Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index closed 4.5% higher, its best month since May 1985 and 8th best return since inception of the index in 1976 USDollar slightly weaker, together with CROSSJPY'S, EURJPY took a decent hit, overall if yields remain 'soft-er' overall JPY could pick up a bit of ground vs USD and crosses GOLD hit a 2135$ high overnight Equity markets loving it all, Fed pricing into 2024 move big timein Novemver, as Core PCE (excludes Food/Energy), the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, moved down to 3.5%. This was the lowest level since April 2021, bears got hit and sent to hibernation for a while (again), the 60/40 portfolio back from the dead with Crude OIL - the only price that moved lower in November A LOT got price in rates last 4-6weeks.. Unearthed podcast: Why are central banks stocking up on gold? | Post by Unearthed Podcast | Gold Focus blog | World Gold Council Is Gold Finally Going to Leap Up? (finews.asia) COP28 Latest: Carbon Offset Market Faces Overhaul After Scandal (yahoo.com) U.S. Central Command on X: "Today, there were four attacks against three separate commercial vessels operating in international waters in the southern Red Sea. These three vessels are connected to 14 separate nations. The Arleigh-Burke Class destroyer USS CARNEY responded to the distress calls from the…" / X (twitter.com) Powell says Fed to move 'carefully' on interest rates, 'soft landing' taking shape (msn.com) Why 'Magnificent 7' stock mania is drawing comparisons to the dot-com bubble (yahoo.com) Investors beware: ‘Magnificent Seven’ stocks starting to resemble ‘Nifty 50’ that got crushed in 1970s market crash - MarketWatch Ed Bradford on X: "Here is a good chart showing how these factors add up and match the Fed's balance sheet https://t.co/L4nSPTVs4O" / X (twitter.com) German Finance Minister Calls for Cuts in Social Spending: Funke - Bloomberg EU budget dispute threatens €50bn war lifeline for Ukraine | West Observer 3 commercial ships hit by missiles in Houthi attack in Red Sea, US warship downs 3 drones (msn.com) Israel-Hamas war live: Israel claims to have struck 200 ‘terror targets’ within Gaza Strip with hundreds of Palestinians killed (msn.com) Live updates: Latest news on Russia and the war in Ukraine (cnbc.com) Putin orders Russian military to boost troop numbers by 170,000 | Russia | The Guardian Russia’s armed forces set to total 1.32 million after latest increase amid the continued invasion of Ukraine Ron Johnson: Russia-Ukraine war will end ‘in a negotiated settlement’ | The Hill IMF chief makes the case for carbon pricing at COP28 climate talks (cnbc.com) The 'punk rocker of Wall Street': Investors react to Charlie Munger's passing (yahoo.com) Meta AI chief Yann LeCun skeptical about AGI, quantum computing (cnbc.com) Mortgage rates drop again, but many buyers prefer to wait (yahoo.com) South Africa: The region where political violence is on the rise ahead of elections - BBC News Who is René Benko's Thai Partner? (finews.asia) US joins in other nations in swearing off coal power to clean the climate (qz.com) Hundreds of exhausted nurses quit Swiss hospital jobs each month - SWI swissinfo.ch USDJPY EURJPY 152?

On the first day of Christmas , my true love sent to me...A partridge in a pear tree Core PCE came in slightly softer, but broadly speaking as expected, Chicagp PMI surprised on topside , coming in at 55.8! (expected 44) and Initial claims 218K, with continuing claims hitting a high of 1.927mio >>> afte a huge rally in SPX500, it has been trading a range of 4520/80 last 2weeks, on big expectations of rates cuts in 2024, FED (march) and ECB all but priced in to cut (April), so next push/impulse will have to come from somewhere else (earnings, macro etc) Crude oil fell 3pct after OPEC+ announced further cuts in '24, bur few crakcs appeared, when OPEC announced that individual countries would announce their own cuts "The planet is tired of climate agreements that were not fulfilled" Brazil's President Lula urges world leaders to take "concrete actions" to fight climate change US ‘profoundly’ worried over Turkey’s financial links to Hamas Electric vehicles have nearly 80% more problems and are generally less reliable than cars propelled by conventional internal combustion engines/consumer report The average price of a used Tesla has declined 16 months in a row, moving from a record high of $67,900 in July 2022 to a record low of $39,002 today (-43%) Markets : EURUSD bulls will have to consider whether the ECB is not about to cut before FED in'24 Huge rally in bonds, long-end dropped nearly 80bps, a lot of cuts got priced in for 2024 alread and thus pushed pretty much every assets higher, SPX rallied 9pct in Nov, USD dropped about 3%, Gold gained the same amount, SIlver, BTC gained 10% etc, look for some consolidation in December Crude dropped about 8% on the month, OPEC cut production but was mostly expected, U.S oil production rises to fresh record SPX500 closed at 4'567 yesterday- same level as 30th November 2021 ! Worse month, and suddenly....best month since 1985 for U.S bonds, up 4% or so in Nov We now have -120- bps of cuts priced in for both FED and ECB in2024, has moved 40bps this week alone !! Colliding with CRE’s maturity wall ( ft.com ) Known known - but ther you go, it is big nonetheless >>> A coming wave of refinancings in a market is certainly important to investors and bankers, of course. But the worst fears about maturity walls are that borrowers won’t be able to refi their debt at all, and those fears rarely bear out. Two to three years is a decent amount of time, so companies can usually refinance their debt, work with lenders to “extend and pretend”, or plan some light creditor-on-creditor violence liability management exercises. mainly macro: Fiscal failures: The UK Autumn Statement and the German debt brake India Small-Cap Stock Gauge Nears Key Hurdle on Seasonal Support - Bloomberg Commodities: Mixed performance as peak rates gather momentum | Saxo Market Call ( podbean.com ) Oil prices set to rise in 2024 after OPEC+ voluntary cuts ( cnbc.com ) whether we rally to this or not, worth looking into crude related socks again, we r very unlikely to go lower than say $70 WTI crude, and stay lower.. Jamie Dimon says to be prepared for recession ( yahoo.com ) Inheritance brings more wealth to billionaires than entrepreneurship ( cnbc.com ) Israel-Hamas war live: 14 Palestinians killed by Israeli strikes since ceasefire expired, says Gaza health ministry ( theguardian.com ) UN atomic chief backs nuclear power at COP28 as world reckons with proliferation ( qz.com ) Bill Gates warns the world is likely to overshoot 2 degrees of warming ( cnbc.com ) Sodium-ion batteries shaping up to be big technology breakthrough ( cnbc.com ) Thousands of fake Facebook accounts shut down by Meta were primed to polarize voters ahead of 2024 ( qz.com ) Next Immo-Tycoon der Bär ist bekannter Züri-Unternehmer - Inside Paradeplatz More executives go missing in China — this time linked to troubled shadow bank Zhongzhi ( msn.com ) Electric vehicles have almost 80% more problems than gas-powered ones, Consumer Reports says - CBS News Turkey Footballers Who Chased 250% Return Left With ‘Empty Bag’ - Bloomberg amaing that still so many people fall for this kind of crap (excuse my french) Home prices hit another record high in September despite higher mortgage rates ( yahoo.com )

COP28 is on at the same time OPEC meets. China going all-in on clean tech I srael and Hamas reached a last-minute agreement on Thursday to extend their six-day ceasefire, granting negotiators additional time to finalize deals involving the exchange of hostages held in Gaza for Palestinian prisoners Saudi Arabia offers Iran investment to blunt Gaza War Fed’s Beige Book finds economy has slowed — and so has inflation - market has already priced this in with few cuts priced in 2024, March '24 in play now, data dependent etc French economy contracts in Q3, inflation eases further China scrambles to contain a looming shadow-Bank meltdown >> One of China’s largest investment banks has warned its analysts against making any bearish calls and to avoid showing off their lavish lifestyle, as Beijing continues to clamp down on well-paid bankers Sergio Ermotti’s second term of office as UBS Chairman has only just begun. But the bank’s chairman Colm Kelleher is already thinking about a succession plan Saudi Arabia offers Iran investment to blunt Gaza War China manufacturing PMI 49.4 in Nov The S&P500 is on pace for its 4th best month - of any month - in nearly 30y (1994) Markets : UST's a lot of talks of FED cutting next year >>> A LOT is already priced in, nearly 40-50% probability of a March cut alfrady priced in >>> 50 year record long-end move ending extremely inverted, classic from here would be a bull steepner (dec seasonals etc) , so if you been on this move, migh well be worth taking some P ! and await from December brings, PCE today and Powell speask tomorrow too.. >>> ECB also full ypriced to cut 25bps in April 2024 USDollar similarly, has done a fair bi of work in November, never hurts to take some profits on USD shorts established 6weeks ago, stay short CROSSJPY's, long some JPY goin ginto Dec and possible Jan YCC move from BoJ Equity markets, the huge momentum chasing move has done a lot of work, SPX500 4550/4600 area let alone 4700 are levels to ease-off and take some profts, not chase WTI Crude picking up - found a base again low-mid 70's - hard to think it goes lower >>> OPEX+ meeting to consider oil output cuts Copper and few other commodities had a good month too (thus also a sign that infaltion unlikely to disappear...so easely) - VIX on lows, worth a look as a hedge - if you looking for some more risk into Dec, it should move higher form here COP28: What to expect at UN climate talks ( ft.com ) What China’s Clean Energy Push Means for COP28 ( bloomberg.com ) >>> "Once complete, the renewables bases will total 455 gigawatts of wind turbines and solar panels. That’s more clean energy generation capacity than is currently available in any nation outside China, and almost the size of the entire power network — including coal plants and nuclear reactors — in India, the world’s third-largest system." Fed’s Beige Book finds economy has slowed — and so has inflation ( msn.com ) French economy contracts in Q3, inflation eases further ( msn.com ) US Treasury Market Has Best Month Since 1980s, Leading Stocks, Credit to Rally - Bloomberg China Scrambles to Contain a Looming Shadow-Bank Meltdown ( msn.com ) China Investment Bank Bans Bearish Research, Wealth Displays ( yahoo.com ) China manufacturing: tech can keep supply chain risks in check, expo panellists say ( msn.com ) Iran: Saudi Proposals Seek To Deescalate Tensions Amid Israel-Hamas War - Bloomberg UBS Chairman Already Thinking About Sergio Ermotti’s Successor ( finews.asia ) Elon Musk uses expletive to blast advertisers fleeing X over hate speech and antisemitism ( msn.com ) Bear's Benko Hole Even Bigger, KBs with Globus-Risk - Inside Paradeplatz Berkshire Hathaway’s Charlie Munger Dies ( finews.asia ) what and icon, great brief story of his life - IMHO, he was the man with the best one-liners - ever Cristiano Ronaldo faces $1bn lawsuit over Binance ads - BBC News What threatens Argentina under Javier Milei – Speaking of podcasts | Tages-Anzeiger ( tagesanzeiger.ch ) EURJPY - trending lower towards 150-153?

R.I.P Charlie, world lost an iconic man, amazing to hink that he didn't join Bershire until 1978, when he was 54years old ! >>> so many great tribute and some of his best quotes below Fed Governor Christopher Waller said Tuesday he is “increasingly confident that policy is currently well positioned to slow the economy and get inflation back to 2 percent >>> Waller highlighted that the Fed may not be able to rely on improvement in the supply side to bring inflation down, suggesting slower economic growth would be needed to reduce inflation risks, ''if progress on inflation continues for several more months, it would warrant lower interest rates'' ..bit of a game changer, firming current sentiment out there... EU confirms vaccination lie : Corona vaccination has never prevented the transmissibility of the virus. This is what the licensing authority of the European Union is now saying afterwards The United Nations Climate Conference begins November 30 in Dubai , m ore than 70,000 delegates are expected to attend from almost 200 nations Used EV prices have dropped by one-third in a year as demand falls (good news for folks) Ackman sees a Fed cut coming in Q1 2024 , higher risk of hard landing, Bill is long bonds now..remember he chopped his short ar 5%+ In what seems like a very interesting comment on the issues facing the Chinese economy, PBoC Governor Pan Gongsheng warned that China's "ongoing economic transformation will be a long and difficult journey, but it’s a journey we must take." / THREAD A record high $8.3 Trillion is parked in global money market funds  according to Goldman Sachs. $5.73 Trillion of this are U.S. based funds Finland to close all border crossings with Russia Hangseng breaking lower, lowest close since Nov 2022 - not a great sign! unless it's a monthend thing! “There’s a risk of a hard landing if Fed doesn’t cut rates pretty soon.” ECB QT ongoing, ECB balance-sheet now sub7trn Markets : SPX500 . complacency ? >> BofA deriv team: "With SPX 4550 and VIX 13 at the time of writing, US equities & equity vol appear to be (once again) going all-in on the soft-landing consensus . As noted in our macro outlook, however, it’s dangerous to be overly convicted in any thesis, as few have experienced today’s elevated macro uncertainty in their lifetimes.", if ever there was a time for a hedging trade it's around now 10y UST tech picture : below 100dma for 1st time since March, room to go towards the 4% level which is the 200dma UST long end drops 80bps in a month >>> (remember how market was 'bearish everything' 6weeks ago, ''overly bearish sentiment' , pointing out ''heavy shorts from CTA's in equity after 6-8weelks of selling...and Bonds, together with a far too concentrated long usd position...'' >>> all got chopped, back to MUCH more neutral levels now for December Precious metals, Gold mainly higher above $2K, making XPT way too cheap - relatively speaking/producion costs etc, and Silver not even started its long-term move higher (chart) #GOLD breaking higher and yet Gold miners (stocks #GTX) have done nothing/struggled in fact ! they can rally 50% to get back to 2020 highs, and a lot more if they ever were to get back to 2011 highs Fed's Waller expresses confidence that policy is in the right place to bring down inflation ( cnbc.com ) Used EV prices are falling fast | Fortune EU confirms vaccination lie: Corona vaccination has never prevented the transmissibility of the virus. This is what the licensing authority of the European Union is now saying afterwards ( weltwoche.ch ) Michael Pettis on X: "1/6 In what seems like a very interesting comment on the issues facing the Chinese economy, PBoC Governor Pan Gongsheng warned that China's "ongoing economic transformation will be a long and difficult journey, but it’s a journey we must take." https://t.co/7JN85QkUOS " / X ( twitter.com ) Berkshire Hathaway exec Charlie Munger's folksy wit in 8 quotes ( qz.com ) R.I.P you absolute legendary man Compounding Quality on X: "Charlie Munger just passed away. He turned 99 years old. Here are 99 life and investing lessons as a tribute to Charlie: https://t.co/y14r9MVB6Y " / X ( twitter.com ) Charlie Munger Dies at 99, Warren Buffett Ally at Berkshire - Bloomberg BOJ policymaker says premature to debate exit from negative rate policy | Reuters UBS Chair Kelleher Warns Bubble Is Forming in Private Credit ( yahoo.com ) Australia's inflation rate now starts with a 4, allowing the RBA to hold fire on rates ( theconversation.com ) Bill Ackman Says US Economy Could Face Risk of 'Hard Landing' ( businessinsider.com ) Get Ready for Another Pointless United Nations Climate Conference | Energy Central Finland to close all border crossings with Russia - Baltic News Network ( bnn-news.com ) Extreme rainfall is increasing even more than expected as world warms | New Scientist Greek leader declines meeting with UK deputy PM after Rishi Sunak’s snub | Foreign policy | The Guardian they've clearly all lost their marbles! Silver

RBA governor Michele Bullock says central bank now dealing with 'homegrown' inflation challenge, and questions government's housing target >> sticky inflation Deloitte, KPMG ask US staff to avoid carrying their work phones to Hong Kong US oil and gas production set to break record in 2023 despite UN climate goals President Joe Biden has opened the first meeting of his supply chain resilience council by warning companies against price gouging and saying that his administration is working to lower costs for U.S. families Copper been grinding higher, Iron Ore prices at highest since June 2022 (low inventories) >>> lower USD and higher commodity prices in 2024.. UST >>> technically this 4.35-4.40% area is big, T-note has failed to beark 109-110 last 10 sessions >>> definitely a big lev SPX500 4550 area mentioned by BoA/Hartnet t, will get harder to move higher from here, huge November momentum 'slowing down' clearly USDollar has done a fair bit too, nothing wrong with banking a bit of 'P' on recenbt usd shorts.. Israel-Hamas truce in Gaza extended two days; 11 more hostages freed | Reuters RBA governor Michele Bullock says central bank now dealing with 'homegrown' inflation challenge, and questions government's housing target ( msn.com ) Biden says he's helped lower inflation as he hosts first meeting of his new supply chain council ( qz.com ) Technical Analysis: US Dollar central to broad market sentiment ( thearmchairtrader.com ) General sentiment USD breaking down >>> IMHO, a small matter of a huge debt roll worth 8trn next year, either bond yields to their work higher or the USDollar weakens to price in some sort of risk into this huge equation ! Tesla sues Swedish agency as striking workers stop delivering license plates for its new vehicles | AP News Barclays Bank is reportedly axing up to 2,000 jobs as part of a $1.25 billion cost-cutting plan ( yahoo.com ) further axing within investment banking Deloitte, KPMG ask US staff to avoid carrying their work phones to Hong Kong, report claims ( msn.com ) US oil and gas production set to break record in 2023 despite UN climate goals | Fossil fuels | The Guardian

Coal  : India plans to triple underground coal minind to meet enegry demand AND.. A total of 15 nations, including the UK, Canada and Germany, are stepping up to halt new coal-fired power stations and clamp down on polluting existing plants ahead of the COP28 summit... (both FT article) We have just seen the biggest 2 week inflow to equity funds since February 2022/BoA The Beijing Stock Exchange has de facto implemented a new policy that prevents major shareholders of companies listed on its bourse from selling stock , worried that such sales could douse a long-desired rally, three people familiar with the matter said, that's one way to lift the market! DB cuts German 2024 GDP forecast by a whopping 0.5ppts to -0.2% due to the budget crisis following the Constitutional Court hearing Bankers servicing one of the world’s biggest ESG debt markets are now actively seeking legal protections to guard against the potential greenwashing allegations that may be ahead >> '''so their thinking is, we had pure motives, so we shoudl not have to suffer the consequences of our bad risk management''? Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey suggests that interest-rate cuts are unlikely for the “foreseeable future” Nasdaq has now listed 0DTE Options (Zero Days to Expiry) for ETFS tracking silver, gold, oil, natural gas, and treasuries Warren Buffett-Backed BYD Hits 6M EVs, Puts Pressure On Tesla In China (shares on June 2021 lows, competitite out there) The Swiss National Bank is evaluating whether to raise banks’ minimum reserve requirements , President Thomas Jordan told Neue Zuercher Zeitung Markets : GOLD, steady as she goes (higher prices making XPT look stuper cheap too) Copper 'breaking up' technically VIX hit the lowest level since January 2020 - supporting risk Bonds : market fading this rally ? 10's UST yield support 4.35% ...>>> $7.6 trillion of US government debt will mature in the next year USD 'softer' overall still Equity markets had a huge rally, lower vols/delta management/systematic buying etc, from here on it should be less powerful (MS pointing out the delta management becoming less friendly into year-end, those looking for decent timing to put a #hedge on it's probably not a bad time to think about it now #timeforahedgingtrade Exclusive: Beijing bourse tells 'major shareholders' to refrain from selling, sources say | Reuters Israel-Hamas war: Hamas releases 17 more hostages in Gaza, including 4-year-old Abigail Edan as part of deal | AP News Gold hits six-month high as traders bet interest rates have peaked - latest updates ( telegraph.co.uk ) What does the OPEC quota disagreement mean for Brent crude prices? ( thearmchairtrader.com ) Bankers Seek Legal Cover After Backing $1.5 Trillion of ESG Debt ( yahoo.com ) NO NO NO! Sam Altman's back. Here's who's on the new OpenAI board and who's out ( cnbc.com ) Sacking, revolt, return: how crisis at OpenAI over Sam Altman unfolded | OpenAI | The Guardian Anti-Crypto European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde’s Son “Lost Almost All” Investing in Crypto ( yahoo.com ) World facing ‘hellish’ 3C of climate heating, UN warns before Cop28 | Climate crisis | The Guardian How the Swiss economy is faring: the third-quarter check-up - SWI swissinfo.ch Benko is looking for buyers for his yacht, globe gets caught up in storm - Inside Paradeplatz Signa unit files for insolvency as crisis at Benko's empire deepens -Spiegel | Reuters Julius Bär bank details shaky loan position - SWI swissinfo.ch .... how was this allowed to happen...from a risk management point of view... India plans to triple underground coal mining to meet energy demand ( ft.com ) and FT again, A total of 15 nations, including the UK, Canada and Germany, are stepping up to halt new coal-fired power stations and clamp down on polluting existing plants ahead of the COP28 summit... World’s largest iceberg is on the move for first time in 37 years | The Hill Warren Buffett-Backed BYD Hits 6M EVs, Puts Pressure On Tesla In China ( msn.com )

And we have 2bn people voting in 2024 - biggest ever democratic year German budget issues, France's rating in check next week, Dublin, Dutch election, Finland and Spain.... pretty hectic week in Europe, most countries are having their political consensus tested! ... and most are in a pretty weak fiscal stance, cant spend spend anymore, choices have to be made Taiwan's opposition parties, which seek closer China ties, registered separate presidential candidates on Friday after a dramatic spli t, potentially easing the way for the ruling party, which has defied Beijing's pressure, to stay in power New Zealand gets two deputy PMs after marathon coalition talks, Spain’s Left-Wing Government Faces Internal Splits — and a Trumpian Opposition Finland warns Russia it is prepared to shut all border points over migrant pressure The borrowing restrictions known as the “debt brake” are baked into Germany’s constitution but  can be temporarily set aside in the case of natural disasters or emergencies beyond the control of the govt JPN inflation came in at 2.9% YoY in October , slightly lower than the 3% expected UK Families £1,900 worse off by the next election  despite Hunt’s giveaways BOE's Pill: We cannot afford to ease off tight monetary policy Markets : GOLD  : has actually been best safe heaven for a while, and less volatile than 10y UST's, but can we break above $2k properly ? see video below if you want to feel very bullish ! FXland, CROSSJPY's essentially firmer, with a hint of GBP strengt h, as economic data comes in a little better than expected (from low market expectations!) UST's a little softer, yields back up, 10's UST yields held 4.35 key level, and 4.47 again Equity markets enjoying their Thanksgiving Israel and Hamas start first truce in Gaza war - Nikkei Asia Japanese inflation picks up to 2.9% in October ( rte.ie ) Scholz promises new budget plans ‘very quickly’ amid German spending crisis – POLITICO Germany’s debt-brake drama is poison for Deutschland Inc and for Europe’s monetary union ( telegraph.co.uk ) 34 arrests made after rioting in Dublin following school knife attack - The Irish News Greece's struggling main opposition party hit by new defections ( zawya.com ) Austrian far-right politician reported for overt racism in regional parliament – EURACTIV.com Finland to close all but one Russia border crossing to stop asylum seekers | Finland | The Guardian Le Pen says Dutch can decide their EU future as ‘Brits did’ – EURACTIV.com Friday briefing: What now after Geert Wilders’ surprise success in the Dutch election | | The Guardian US forces attacked 4 times in Iraq, Syria within hours | Reuters China ties on the line as Taiwan opposition splits in dramatic feud | Reuters China Tells WHO Known Germs Are Causing Surge in Child Pneumonia - Caixin Global Tavi Costa: Gold is About to Explode Higher Through a Triple Top - Palisades Gold Radio ( palisadesradio.ca ) Exploring the world of lithium-ion batteries and their components ( thearmchairtrader.com ) Benko's Dream Villa, Bear's Nightmare Crash - Inside Paradeplatz Chinese EV car maker BYD launches its Han sedan in the Middle East ( cnbc.com ) Families £1,900 worse off by the next election despite Hunt’s giveaways ( msn.com ) and Jeremy told everyone they were cutting taxes.. New Zealand gets two deputy PMs after marathon coalition talks | New Zealand politics | The Guardian Spain’s Left-Wing Government Faces Internal Splits — and a Trumpian Opposition ( msn.com ) Mohamed A. El-Erian on X: "From @martinwolf_ ‘s column in the @FT. The bottom line is that the fiscal position of too many countries is not well positioned for the end of the “low for long” regime for global interest rates. This results in a further loss of policy flexibility at a time when monetary policy… https://t.co/Iu5sdcxXrS " / X ( twitter.com ) Quite, fiscally trapped, tough decision required going forward, Germany just showed how hard it is going to be (can always break the rules of course.. Exclusive-Nvidia Delays Launch of New China-Focused AI Chip -Sources ( usnews.com ) Scientists baffled after extremely high-energy particle detected falling to Earth | Science & Tech News | Sky News