President's day and Week ahead : NDVA reports on Wed (stock up 45% since they reported on 21t Nov - Vol simply a +/- 11% move in the stock), Traders no long expect FED to cut rates in May and switched to June. Approx 90 bps of cuts are now priced in for 2024, down from 137 bps expected before the Jan. 30-31 FOMC meeting >>> Highlights this week include Flash PMI data, the PBoC MLF and LPR rate decisions, alongside minutes from the FOMC (Wed), ECB and RBA >>> bottom line 2024 consensus challenged, blown to pieces really, 3 FED cuts instead of 6 (price at end of dec), will make interesting trading opportunities ! re-accelerating inflation and dissapointing Ai earnings are the 2 big key risks in weeks ahead
And most likely by mid March : Morgan Stanley: Biden's red hot Government Spending and Fiscal Stimulus ends when the Reverse Repo runs out
Why the Fed now finds itself on a collision course with the 2024 election
The GS sentiment indicator that measures positioning across various investors finally crawled back to "stretched" which should indicate lower returns going forward. Not a sell-signal per se, but "in the zone". MS : ''1y ago, discussed the ever-growing divide between the haves and have-nots. This divide was not limited to consumers but included corporates as well. Fast forward to today, and it appears this gap has only gotten wide
Thousands rail against Mexico's president and ruling party in 'march for democracy'
Call to urgently revive Theresa May’s plan for EU-wide defence treaty
The S&P 500's streak of 14/15 green weeks ended last week
One under appreciated economic negative from Brexit was its all consuming nature - years of endless political argument and energy annihilating negotiation in which nothing else got done
Natural gas prices plunge as US set for warmest winter on record, good news*, the overall cost of energy is on a downward trend, but electricity remains stubbornly sticky
French finance minister announces €10 billion in spending cuts for 2024. Bruno Le Maire on Sunday said that the country's 2024 growth forecast has been revised down from 1.4% to 1.0%
Estonia’s Foreign Intelligence Service annual report reveals Russia’s confrontational path >> Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said conditions are not right for peace talks to end Russia’s war on Ukraine and also interesting development here : Denmark has decided to transfer all its artillery to Ukraine
Agriculture is becoming a key battleground in a global culture war over money, food and climate change
China's central bank signs 40 currency swap agreements with foreign counterparts
Michael Pettis on X: "The PBOC has signed bilateral currency swap agreements with more than 40 foreign central banks, according to a recent PBoC report, of which 31 "are in force" (which I assume means involves actual drawdowns) with a total scale of about 4.16 trillion yuan. https://t.co/mKdAnFcqTy" / X (twitter.com)
AndreasStenoLarsen on X: "Why should the Fed cut at all given this chart? Full story -> https://t.co/ALDLvAiV8e https://t.co/0vGiYhTDh6" / X (twitter.com)
The Long Investor on X: "Bill Gates has done a lot of selling in Q4 2023 Reduced his portfolio by 65% And only holding deep value stocks now, similar to that of Buffett Time to prepare $SPY $QQQ https://t.co/bfMaDFs0Q1" / X (twitter.com)
Yahoo Finance on X: "The overall cost of energy is on a downward trend, but electricity remains stubbornly sticky. Infrastructure costs have kept utilities from cutting prices. The industry is estimated to spend more than $100B annually to maintain aging grids and invest in renewable technologies. https://t.co/IQlvRyf2Ed" / X (twitter.com)
Denmark to send its ‘entire artillery’ to Ukraine, country’s prime minister says | South China Morning Post (scmp.com)