The BoJ meeting is the biggest macro event this week/month.. JGB's could have a proper tantrum like in 2013 and hit 1% yields in the 10y area. BoJ spent about -75bn$ in last 2-34 sessions buying JGB's, JPY has recovered about half of what was lost since March 2020 (USDJPY has done a lot of damage already though...YCC change is coming ! only question is when.!) - Japan December PPI +0.5% m/m (expected +0.3%) and +10.2% y/y (expected +9.5%)
The University of Michigan consumer sentiment improved by 4.9pp to 64.6 in early January from 59.7 in December
EV price war shaping up in 2023 - if you wanted an EV car, you might want to wait a bit
UK/EU...There are growing indications that the EU and UK could, later today, set out an agreed framework on resolving the most contentious issues around the Northern Ireland Protocol; diplomats have stressed that there is still an enormous amount of technical work to be done before an overall agreement is reached
JPMorgan Chase on Thursday shut down the website for a college financial aid platform it bought for $175 million after alleging the company’s founder created nearly 4 million fake customer accounts
Fitch: ECB Guidance, Core Inflation Point To Higher Terminal Rate
With earnings season set to kick into full-swing in the next few weeks, it's interesting to note how deeply pessimistic earnings sentiment has become/Thread and by pretty much ANY survey, it is the most anticipated recession in history..
FED's net interest costs increased to $102.4bn in 2022, up from just $5.7bn in 2021
U.S. will hit its debt limit Thursday, start taking steps to avoid default, Yellen warns Congress
Bitcoin has jumped out of January’s starting gates with a climb of more than 25%
BRL : largest real rates levels across the globe - see Thread below
Markets are pricing 200bps of cuts from Fed by the end of 2024 >>> basically that would be same levels as ECB - this looks nuts !!? and because of this, markets have embraced '#Goldilocks,' with investors assuming that a soft landing means positive #earnings growth
Markets :
VIX had the lowest weekly close in over a year
USDJPY has done a lot of work already ahead of BoJ, dragging all USD pairs lower, beware a little from here on USD shorts, in fact TP on some or most, reassess on Wed/Thursday
HSI now looks better on a 12-month perf chart than the S&P500 - pretty wild - was so oversold in Sep/Oct, when USD peaked too, inflation peaked etc
SPX is closing in on big levels. Zoom in and you see the 200 day moving average as well as the negative trend line. The entire 4000-4080 area is basically a big resistance area / see below chart
https://s358.podbean.com/pb/c2e85002c24556fe7dfa0bfa8af3dffe/63c50a7d/data1/fs56/5709963/uploads/2023_01_16_SaxoMarketCall.pdf?pbss=a78d3df9-17fb-5fcf-862a-b2ccf69bb951 SPX500 chart and more there
this guy btw is good to follow for BoJ stuff..
Home / Twitter nice recap 'Global Central Bank Update'' --South Korea hiked rates for the 10th time, 25 bps increase to 3.50%. Brazil real CB rate +8%.. wild - great opportunity ?
Whatever happened to due diligence..?
Support for leaving EU has fallen significantly across bloc since Brexit | European Union | The Guardian God damn lies (irrelevant whether one likes or dislike EU)... what happened to that Red Bus and 350mio a week stuff ? and the execution was simply horrific, in fact nothing much has actually got better !
Johnson had cousin act as ‘guarantor for an £800,000 credit facility’ while PM, reports | Evening Standard A spokesman for Boris Johnson said all the former Conservative leader’s finances ‘are and were properly declared’
Have a great start to the week
Team PVM
GBPCHF - constructive - if ever those talks between EU/UK became good !
