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  • Writer's pictureStéphan

U.S debt ceiling limit Thursday / Kuroda in Davos on Wed / SPX500 cluster of resistance 4000/4080

  • The BoJ meeting is the biggest macro event this week/month.. JGB's could have a proper tantrum like in 2013 and hit 1% yields in the 10y area. BoJ spent about -75bn$ in last 2-34 sessions buying JGB's, JPY has recovered about half of what was lost since March 2020 (USDJPY has done a lot of damage already though...YCC change is coming ! only question is when.!) - Japan December PPI +0.5% m/m (expected +0.3%) and +10.2% y/y (expected +9.5%)

  • The University of Michigan consumer sentiment improved by 4.9pp to 64.6 in early January from 59.7 in December

  • EV price war shaping up in 2023 - if you wanted an EV car, you might want to wait a bit

  • UK/EU...There are growing indications that the EU and UK could, later today, set out an agreed framework on resolving the most contentious issues around the Northern Ireland Protocol; diplomats have stressed that there is still an enormous amount of technical work to be done before an overall agreement is reached

  • JPMorgan Chase on Thursday shut down the website for a college financial aid platform it bought for $175 million after alleging the company’s founder created nearly 4 million fake customer accounts

  • Fitch: ECB Guidance, Core Inflation Point To Higher Terminal Rate

  • With earnings season set to kick into full-swing in the next few weeks, it's interesting to note how deeply pessimistic earnings sentiment has become/Thread and by pretty much ANY survey, it is the most anticipated recession in history..

  • FED's net interest costs increased to $102.4bn in 2022, up from just $5.7bn in 2021

  • U.S. will hit its debt limit Thursday, start taking steps to avoid default, Yellen warns Congress

  • Bitcoin has jumped out of January’s starting gates with a climb of more than 25%

  • BRL : largest real rates levels across the globe - see Thread below

  • Markets are pricing 200bps of cuts from Fed by the end of 2024 >>> basically that would be same levels as ECB - this looks nuts !!? and because of this, markets have embraced '#Goldilocks,' with investors assuming that a soft landing means positive #earnings growth

Markets :
  • VIX had the lowest weekly close in over a year

  • USDJPY has done a lot of work already ahead of BoJ, dragging all USD pairs lower, beware a little from here on USD shorts, in fact TP on some or most, reassess on Wed/Thursday

  • HSI now looks better on a 12-month perf chart than the S&P500 - pretty wild - was so oversold in Sep/Oct, when USD peaked too, inflation peaked etc

  • SPX is closing in on big levels. Zoom in and you see the 200 day moving average as well as the negative trend line. The entire 4000-4080 area is basically a big resistance area / see below chart SPX500 chart and more there

Market bracing for BoJ impact Wednesday | Saxo Market Call (

Column: Oil prices expected to average around $90 in 2023-2027 | Reuters

BOJ's record-breaking $78bn bond buying fails to halt rising yields - Nikkei Asia

Weston Nakamura on Twitter: "🇯🇵BOJ↑ add’l JGB buys +¥1.4tn, targeting belly of JGB curve +¥100b 1-3Y +¥500b 3- 5Y +¥500b 5-10Y +¥300b 10-25Y Obv any specific amt = not enough, as even “unlimited” isn’t enough JGB 10Y >50bp YCC cap (again) USDJPY↓ mid 127 ¥futures↑ near 79 BOJ likely back in later today" / Twitter

this guy btw is good to follow for BoJ stuff..

Home / Twitter nice recap 'Global Central Bank Update'' --South Korea hiked rates for the 10th time, 25 bps increase to 3.50%. Brazil real CB rate +8%.. wild - great opportunity ?

U.S. to hit debt limit Thursday, Yellen warns Congress (

Callum Thomas on Twitter: "2. With earnings season set to kick into full-swing in the next few weeks, it's interesting to note how deeply pessimistic earnings sentiment has become. Bull take: easy to surprise against (even if mediocre) Bear take: if confirmed = bad news. h/t @zerohedge $SPX $SPY $MACRO" / Twitter

Tom McTague on Twitter: "There’s lots of noise and fury. But the truth remains startling enough: the UK is building and operating an international trade border within its own country to ensure the integrity of the EU single market. Why? Because that was the price the Tory party agreed to pay for Brexit." / Twitter

JPMorgan Chase shutters student financial aid website Frank (

Whatever happened to due diligence..?

ECB Guidance, Core Inflation Point to Higher Terminal Rate (

Support for leaving EU has fallen significantly across bloc since Brexit | European Union | The Guardian God damn lies (irrelevant whether one likes or dislike EU)... what happened to that Red Bus and 350mio a week stuff ? and the execution was simply horrific, in fact nothing much has actually got better !

Johnson had cousin act as ‘guarantor for an £800,000 credit facility’ while PM, reports | Evening Standard A spokesman for Boris Johnson said all the former Conservative leader’s finances ‘are and were properly declared’

Eisai files for approval of Alzheimer's drug in Japan | Reuters

Have a great start to the week

Team PVM

GBPCHF - constructive - if ever those talks between EU/UK became good !

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