U.S CPI higher / US urges EU on China policy / U.S banks earnings softer, ASML lower exp / UST 30's 5%, JGB 3.1%

Stéphan
Jul 16
3 min read

Markets : Odds of a September rate cut have fallen to a coin flip, as inflation picked up a little to 2.7%m (tariffs...lead to...''broad based increases, affecting various imports..''), UST 30y hits 5% again, JGB's long-end hit highest yield levels for 15y or so >>> end of yield suppression, this is like a referendum on the US's fiscal position (same for France, Japan etc) debt load beginning to matter, everywhere.. data centers in space (I kid you not..), earnings off to a soft ish pace, inflation is broadly higher, and equity valuations are on highs (mostly helped by NVDA..), plenty of reasons to get a correction from here, the FOMO mood can quickly turn pretty slow summer volumes.. + BoA's FM survey shows lowest cash allocation in 12years... and of course Trump keeps having a go at Powell, FED's independence is so key and should not be messed with, in a world where Mr President is blowing up debt levels...
The US is urging the EU to fully adopt Washington’s more hawkish policy on China, a senior EU official said on Monday, amid growing speculation that the bloc could impose tougher measures on Beijing in order to clinch a trade deal with the US
Fund managers' cash allocation has dropped to 3.9%, the second-lowest in 12 years, according to a BofA survey of 175 participants with $434 billion in assets
Chip giant ASML smashes expectations on second-quarter net bookings
Fed might need to hold rates steady ‘for quite some time,’ Logan says
France's Bayrou bets big on austerity with spending freeze and holiday cuts
What is happening in Japan? Treasury yields in Japan have silently surged to new RECORD highs, with the 30Y Yield hitting 3.20%
Goldman Sachs economists estimate that U.S. consumers will end up paying 70% of tariffs’ direct costs
"Their cost, their quality is far superior to anything in the West." Ford Motors CEO admits China won the car industry