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Trump's tariffs not about trade / +ve signs.. EU, JPN trade talks and UKR rare earth / ECB to cut today / Happy Easter

  • Writer: Stéphan
    Stéphan
  • Apr 17
  • 4 min read

ree

  • Happy Easter!

  • Markets : 245% tariffs stops all trade (as discussed last week its a trade embargo between China and U.S - see below), Kiev positive on rare earth deal, Trump positive on Japan deal and few positive chatters with Europe, Trump seemingly getting frustrated with Russia, FED on hold, ECB to cut today (all priced in, guidance key, probably best stay vague and all option there) >>> SPX 5000-5500 range will do for now, Europe should continue to outperform, even HSI and Chinese markets up overnight, USD mixed, CHF strength a little overdone in short-term, small GBPCHF/EURCHF worth considering from here >>> overall these markets creates great opportunities, volatility creates better levels to step-in and add to your key stocks, have your shopping list ready and leave some bids, never forget to take some Profits, and repeat... Overall, we strongly feel we could be in a multi year of europe-quality outperformance vs the U.S markets, too expensive, concentration of risk etc. ECB to cut, all but priced in (EURO TWI on all time highs and energy-crude prices down)

  • Rick Rieder of Blackrock: - economy in recession now - we are adding gold -we like cash, that is a rather strange message coming from them ?

  • Russia asks to buy Boeing jets with frozen assets in US Talks, clever move

  • Lets repeat that again : Trump’s tariff policy has nothing to do with trade. The president is using economic warfare to compel corporate loyalty-FT, but overall it is ALL about weakening China, tariffs and security stick...and trying to put RoW against China too..

  • China is clearly not buying US products, now Canadian Oil, now Brazilian soybeans, no more Boeing now Airbus, now Australina beef, semis though tricky, but China replace them, btu America had to exempt them for i-pühones etc, and YET America cannot do without antibiotics and rare earth anywhere else >>> beware what you wish for Navarro and Co

  • China forbids all billionaires to invest in the U.S . China says the U.S is no more safe place for them

  • Ukraine, US make 'substantial progress' on minerals deal, Kyiv says

  • Trump hails 'big progress' in Japan tariff talks

  • Donald Trump’s tariffs are “likely” to put at risk FEDs goals of keeping prices and unemployment in check, chair Jay Powell warned, as he emphasised the US central bank’s focus on inflation (FT)

  • Donald Trump said ‘big progress’ was made in his meeting with a Japanese trade delegation. Tokyo’s top negotiator Ryosei Akazawa said more talks will take place this month. The yen weakened after Akazawa said the currency wasn’t discussed (...did JPN say they would have to sell USTs to strengthen JPY, yups, quite likely...)

  • Scott Bessent said the US is prepared to get Iranian energy exports ‘down to zero.’ Israel had planned to strike Iranian nuclear sites as soon as next month before Trump decided to negotiate with Tehran (NYT, BBG)

  • Goldman Sachs Warns of $800 Billion US Outflows from China Stocks in Extreme Scenario

  • Intel will need license to export AI chips to Chinese clients, FT reports


SAXO platform : During holidays, markets and exchanges around the world are closed at certain times. Upcoming holiday schedules will be posted below.

Good Friday & Easter - 2025



Economists and pundits have spent the last two weeks frantically trying to decode what President Donald Trump’s ultimate aim is with tariffs. Last week’s spectacular flip-flop, in which he paused the majority of them for 90 days, came after the White House had spent days insisting the tariffs were not up for negotiation but were instead a long-term strategy to help revitalise the US industrial base and bring back jobs. However, there is a simple reason that Trump’s shortlived tariffs make little economic sense: they are not designed as economic policy but as a means to compel loyalty to the president



China Open to Talks If US Shows Respect, Names Point Person

China wants to see a number of steps from President Donald Trump’s administration before it will agree to trade talks, including showing more respect by reining in disparaging remarks by members of his cabinet, according to a person familiar with the Chinese government’s thinking.

·       Other conditions include a more consistent US position and a willingness to address China’s concerns around American sanctions and Taiwan, said the person, who asked not to be identified to discuss internal thinking. 

Beijing also wants the US to appoint a point person for talks who has the president’s support and can help prepare a deal that Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping can sign when they meet, the person said



It makes NO difference, it is a trade embargo now as discussed last week











 
 
 

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