Search
  • Stéphan

SPX500 4'050/4'150 key / Phily Fed weaker / UK budget, as exp / JPN inflation / UKR-RU grain deal




  • Goldman Sees China Rebound Coming as Covid Policy Fuels Optimism, economy to gain momentum after initial reopening impact passes, sentiment improves since Beijing tweaks Covid, property rules

  • "This Is Unprecedented": Enron Liquidator Overseeing FTX Bankruptcy Speechless: "I Have Never Seen Anything Like This".....“A complete failure of corporate controls”: Read the wildest parts of the new FTX bankruptcy filing - astonishing - what happened to due diligence...Singapore state investor Temasek has written off its $275mn stake in cryptocurrency company FTX, saying its trust in former chief executive Sam Bankman-Fried appeared ‘misplaced’

  • Billionaire investor Ray Dalio says we should stop thinking that the U.S. and China are going to erupt in nuclear war

  • Fed's Mester cheered by CPI, but says big risks remain on inflation, US inflation is unacceptably high

  • Fed's Bullard: Even "Dovish" Policy Assumptions Require Further Rate Increases 5 to 5.25% >> he is the über hawk and data dependent, see Phily Fed below..

  • Is Green Hydrogen the Fuel of the future?

  • Russia-Ukraine grain deal extended in win for food prices

  • Collapse in shipping rates continues to look unreal … cost to ship 40-foot container from Shanghai to Los Angeles has fallen by 83% from peak, by far largest drop on record (bringing level to lowest since June 2020)

  • As expected, The UK announced its biggest tax hikes and spending cuts in 10 years. In his autumn statement, chancellor Jeremy Hunt laid out a £55 billion ($66 billion) “belt tightening” plan for the next five years that will seek to lower government debt >>> ''what's not great for folks, may be good for UK markets'', UK gilts and GBP taken this pretty well

  • The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's monthly manufacturing index fell to negative 19.4 in November from negative 8.7 in October, with the gauge of employment showed continued growth in hiring but at its weakest pace since June 2020

  • Japan's inflation has hit its highest levels in 40 years, with prices jumping up more than three and a half percent in the year to October >>> BoJ still YCC'ing...so maybe the plan is to strengthen the JPY instead..

 
Markets:
  • The next few HUGE events are on 14th and 15th of Dec, when Fed, SNB, BoE and the ECB will set policy/hike, we will get another NFP and set of US inflation before that, ISM next week be interesting after weak Phily Fed yesterday

  • The 2s10s yield curve hasn’t been this inverted in the last 25 years. The 30-year US mortgage rate moved from 7.08% to 6.61% over the last week, the largest one-week decline (-47 bps) in rates since November 1981 >>> peak worries, peak rates as long as debt remains under control !! like the UK is showing..it will be tough but it's a must

  • The global stock market rally could be about to meet recession reality..is something that you read fair bit about now already in article and research documents, markets reached overbought conditions, momentum slowing as we get into these huge SPX500 technical levels 4'050/4'150 resistance area, 200dma is right in the middle aroun 4'075 and the 100dma is aroiund 3'910 which is exactly where we held yesterday..

  • USD came back a bit on Bullard comment yesterday but given weaker Phily Fed (employment data..) and if other data comes in softer between now and Dec FOMC, USD likely to come under further pressure again. GBP going just fine, AUDUSD 0.6770 Fibo lev, more around China reopening or not (USDCNH etc). USDCHF popped its head above that big 09450/.9500 area, key are on monthly charts, probably on EURCHF buying mainly..

  • Markets likely to trade rangy/low vols (bar any new news.) till mid-December and all the CB meetings, macro rates side of things will be awaiting all these mostly priced in hikes

 

Liz Ann Sonders on Twitter: "Collapse in shipping rates continues to look unreal … cost to ship 40-foot container from Shanghai to Los Angeles has fallen by 83% from peak, by far largest drop on record (bringing level to lowest since June 2020) https://t.co/Of6m4uUPrY" / Twitter chart


Robin Brooks on Twitter: "Foreign selling in March 2020 triggered a US Treasury market blow-up, destabilizing highly leveraged carry trades hedge funds were doing, similar to the recent UK bond market blow-up. Japan in September sold the large amount of US Treasuries EVER to fund its defense of the Yen... https://t.co/fv3ACyHCqC" / Twitter chart


Otavio (Tavi) Costa on Twitter: "More yield curve inversions happening today. The Fed funds rate is now higher than 30-year yields since the Covid recession. 62% of the entire Treasury curve is now inverted. This only supports our bearish case for US stocks. https://t.co/QM2P6Sz76a" / Twitter chart


Frédéric Rochat: «Energy Independence Has Never Been More Relevant» (finews.asia)

OK enough talks, actions required, in ALL countries, the 'not in my back yard' must sort of stop, it's too easy to push the problem to someone else, some other country etc


Philadelphia Fed factory activity index drops unexpectedly (yahoo.com)


Billionaire Ray Dalio: stop thinking U.S. and China are going to erupt in nuclear war | Fortune


Fed's Mester cheered by CPI, but says big risks remain on inflation (yahoo.com)


Fed's Bullard: Even "dovish" policy assumptions require further rate increases | Reuters


Japan's inflation hits 40-year high (yahoo.com)

October data also showed a yearly jump in energy costs by over 15%.

Food items were 88% more costly than a year before, led by alcoholic drinks


Poll reveals public support for Brexit at all-time low | Politics News | Sky News

''let's take back control...''


"This Is Unprecedented": Enron Liquidator Overseeing FTX Bankruptcy Speechless: "I Have Never Seen Anything Like This" | ZeroHedge this will soon be a must watch on Netflix or whatever provider

FTX’s new CEO is steering the bankruptcy with experienced help (qz.com)


Is Green Hydrogen The Fuel Of The Future? This CEO Is Betting On It (forbes.com)


Pompeo dings Trump: GOP needs leader who doesn’t claim ‘victimhood’ | The Hill


FDA says lab-grown meat is safe for human consumption (cnbc.com) not going to rush just yet..


Russia-Ukraine grain deal extended in win for food prices | AP News


From income tax to pensions: What the Autumn statement means for you (yahoo.com)



Have a great day

Team PVM










50 views