Yesterday was the first time since November 2nd that the S&P 500, Nasdaq, S&P 400 (mid-caps), and Russell 2000 (small-caps) all closed below their 50-day moving averages >>> which, as pointed out late last week, will force CTA's to start selling into the move lower for the 1st time this year... (SPX 4875 huge level and 4600 for the CTA's)
BofA survey reporting Fund Managers are net underweight Cash for the first time since 2011...
Middle East Latest: Military Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi : Israel has no choice but to respond to Iran’s drone and missile attack, even as European & US officials called for to avoid tit-for-tat response. Iran can avoid raising tensions while still guarding its “sovereignty and dignity,” China’s Wang Yi said
U.S retail sales up 0.7% higher than exp 0.4%, easy financial conditions boost infl and growth...>> 10y UST 4.63% now, UST 30s back above 4.75!, that is last Nov dreaded QRA territory... reinforcing our long held view #HIGHFORLONGER
Saxo : Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal
Higher UST 10y yields, above previously mentioned key 4.35% area, will increase 'risk' to at least part for the equity world.."Aggressive fiscal spending may ultimately keep the Fed from cutting rates to levels that will benefit small businesses...The bottom line is that no landing may be good for growth but challenging for equity valuations if rates push higher:" MS's Mike Wilson
Goldman warns that long-end rates may continue to rise as inflationary pressures reignite, and Hedge Funds are now the least long Energy stocks in AT LEAST 5 years according to Goldman Sachs
CFTC - Hedge Funds have built the largest long position in the MXN Peso in 13mos
Gold is back — and it has a message for us - The precious metal’s surge may herald a whole new world
There is "no urgency" to cut U.S. interest rates, Mary Daly, the president of the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, said on Monday, with the economy and labor market strong, and inflation still above the Fed's target of 2%
China’s economy grew 5.3% in the first quarter, beating expectations
Althea Spinozzi on X: "🇺🇸10Y UST yields remain in an uptrend. If they break and close above 4.58%, they will find resistance at 4.7%. To remove the uptrend, yields need to close below 4.18%. https://t.co/XYvCpCdpmC" / X (twitter.com)
Podcast
''China buying gold and selling Treasuries mirrors how Europe’s central banks began to redeem dollars for gold in the late 1960s as the Bretton Woods System began to break apart.”
John Hudson on X: "New: When Kamala Harris met privately with Volodymyr Zelensky in February, she told him something he didn’t want to hear: Refrain from attacking Russian oil refineries, a tactic U.S. officials believed would raise global energy prices and invite more aggressive Russian…" / X (twitter.com)
No surprise this comes out now - no coincidence
When you go 'ex this and that' the official rate is low, the reality of most folks if very different!
Operation Cowboy – How American GIs & German Soldiers Joined Forces to Save the Legendary Lipizzaner Horses in the Final Hours of WW2 - MilitaryHistoryNow.com
Great story
whoops
Jimmy Kimmel Says After His Court Nap, 'if Biden Is Sleepy Joe,' Trump Is 'Dozo the Clown' | Video (thewrap.com)
SPX - 38.2% retracement around 4900/4875...CTA levels..