Deutsche Bank: The BOJ is reaching near-full ownership of the 10yr bonds it can buy — “the time is soon approaching where these bonds will stop trading in their entirety and the market will simply cease to exist.” There will be no willing sellers at the BOJ’s purchase price
The goal of the EU is not to freeze, but to confiscate Russian assets in Europe, but for this it is necessary to prepare a legal framework - von der Leyen.. Chancellor of Germany Olaf Scholz believes that after the victory, Ukraine will become a powerful supplier of "green" energy, a giant in the digital industry, a member of the European Union and, in general, a state with justice and infrastructure that others will emulate
UK Government’s medium term fiscal plan is to be delayed til Nov 17. Will be rebranded as an Autumn Statement – Gilts reacting a little softer
CNH has largest daily up move in a very long time – talks of intervention, signs of a few ‘state-owned banks’ selling USDCNH..
U.S. home price growth slows at the fastest pace on record: S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller data (thread-chart)
Mercedes-Benz raised its full-year profit forecast on Wednesday as strong demand for luxury cars and cost savings offset the supply chain bottlenecks that have hampered industry output this year
The German cabinet has approved an investment by China's Cosco for a 24.9% stake in one of logistics company HHLA's three terminals in the country's largest port in Hamburg -- less than the 35% stake the Chinese shipping group was aiming for and without any say in management or strategic decisions
Markets :
Bonds vols peaked - MOVE Index peaked #peakusd #peakhawkishness >>> it has ALL been about bonds lately, will remain so, as we often said FedFunds near 4.5% will be ‘it’, with so much debt in the world (2x levels from 10+ years ago..) there is little or no way rates can actually go much higher, unless Central Banks wanted to trigger a depression...they don’t ..clearly a few things spooked them last 2weeks..underneath the bonnet...hence they sent out last Friday both WSJ Timiraos (the new Hylsenrath..) and Fed’s Daly...
USD peaked, US data softer, month-end flows helping as mentioned yesterday..
Equity markets is rally mode, although Google and MSFT a reminder that not all is well is big mega cap growth companies..both down 6% after earnings. Remember the HUGE buying of Puts we referred to 2-3weeks ago ? they are unwinding....''buy a hedge when you can, not when you must..''' (when markets are on lows)....the crowd loaded on puts on market lows..
And crypto rallied – bond stopped, usd peaked.. all the same trade
https://twitter.com/economics/status/1585080405606252544Japan’s mom-and-pop investors are taking the opportunity of intervention-driven yen surges to build up bets on further weakness in the beleaguered currency ....hum...IMHO do not underestimate BoJ, (particularly if-when joined by PBOC and others...) ..over last few decades, in the end their interventions were powerful, not always obvious within days or weeks though, as is now...
https://twitter.com/Steen_Jakobsen/status/1585193273718501376 The coming rise in Europe from lower energy prices.. This is simple model using PEAK Panic in energy as impulse & now drop to predict PMI.. Result: EU PMI Comp. should rise from 47.0 to at least 53/54 in Q4 against strong negative EU consensus of "deep recession"...
https://notayesmanseconomics.wordpress.com/2022/10/26/the-ecb-interest-rate-rise-tomorrow-will-create-as-many-problems-as-it-solves/ The ECB interest-rate rise tomorrow will create as many problems as it solves
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt says he and the PM are wanting to make sure their decisions "stand the test of time" following the announcement that the government's economic plan will be delayed from Halloween to 17 November.
Read more: https://trib.al/WJl2ZKh
https://www.ft.com/content/2269c835-1a82-45ff-85f4-7ae7fbfa7e4a Japan’s yield curve control is “broken”
https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/equities/chinas-risk-premium-on-the-rise-critical-earnings-week-ahead-24102022 Summary: Chinese equities are significantly lower today following the country's leadership shuffle over the weekend as investors are increasingly readjusting lower their views on longer term growth in private sector profits. Chinese equities are selling at a historical discount to US equities in a sign of a rising equity risk premium on Chinese equities. This rising equity risk premium comes also with risk for the US equity market as many US companies have large revenue exposure to China. We also take a look at the Q3 earnings season and the upcoming earnings this week which will determine the short-term sentiment and reaction.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/25/alphabet-googl-q3-2022-earnings-.html Alphabet misses on earnings as YouTube shrinks; company will cut headcount growth by half in Q4 - Microsoft warns of cloud computing slowdown
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/25/spotify-spot-earnings-q3-2022.html 99 euro cents vs. an estimated loss of 85 euro cents per share as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv
Hilton reports rise in quarterly profit on strong travel demand http://reut.rs/3DyleyV
https://twitter.com/lisaabramowicz1/status/1584896260829433856?s=46&t=s9y4z9BxpOHPa2FKVYG6yw U.S. home price growth slows at the fastest pace on record: S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller data
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Companies/Germany-allows-China-s-Cosco-to-take-24.9-stake-in-largest-port Germany allows China's Cosco to take 24.9% stake in largest port
Lower share in terminal agreed after Germans burned by dependence on Russian gas