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  • Writer's pictureStéphan

J Powell kicks off semi-annual testimony, ahead of U.S CPI on Thursday / #BTC / #GDX / #NIKKEI new highs

  • Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will be testifying on Capitol Hill. He'll first appear before the Senate Banking Committee and then, on Wednesday, the House Financial Services Committee as part of his semiannual policy report to Congress >>> set-up for a softer U.S CPI on Thursday, GS Core Inflation Tracker is now below 2%

  • US financial conditions are now the easiest in 27 years/Thread

  • Nikkei new highs, semis leading the charge. After the 10% correction in MSCI China over the past six weeks, investors will be looking at China’s July policy meetings – the Third Plenum in mid-month and the Politburo meeting at end of the month – for the growth outlook for the remainder of 2024/GS is comparatively optimistic about the meeting outcomes. Relative to the S&P 500, the S&P 500 Momentum Index has surged to a new cycle high and is at its highest since August 2000 >>> Goldman Sachs warns that everyone, including itself, is too bullish on the stock market, which could mean a correction is coming. July 17 has historically marked a local top heading into a weaker August!

  • The German government owns around $2 billion in bitcoin — and it’s freaking out crypto investors #BTC

  • Corn plummets to lowest price since November 2020

  • China EV maker BYD to build $1-bln plant in Turkey >>> back door deal into Europe

  • #GDX outperformed #XAUUSD last week, catch-up time, #SILJ in the frame too

  • BP is telegraphing a rather weak quarterly result

  • Equity markets : overall plenty of calls of 'overdone, concentration of risk never been higher, Mag7 or Mag8 momentum crazy, a 10pct correction is coming', for now none of it matters, as financial conditions too loose and we know where liquidities are going... seasonality maybe now during summer may come into play, particularly on U.S elections expectations change and/or FED expectations for 2024 changing, France heading for a long coalition period of talks, neither far left nor far right likely to be involved..


Yardeni says this slow-motion meltup has further to run and could see their 6000 SPX target for 2025 being too conservative. 

"Eric, Joe, and I aren’t raising our year-end target for the S&P 500 just yet. But we are learning to live with the S&P 500 outpacing even our bullish projections. It did so last year: Our year-end target of 4600 was reached on July 31, 2023....Now we are rethinking whether our current projections of 6000 by the end of 2025, 6500 by the end of 2026, and 8000 by the end of the decade might be too conservative. The market may be discounting our Roaring 2020s scenario faster than we expected."

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