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  • Writer's pictureStéphan

France : coalition next up / Big week for Biden and Dems / UK Labour's plans / S&P nearly 50% techs now



  • 'It's about to get wild': Congress returns for pivotal week as Democrats sweat over Biden

  • France's election result : no group has a mandate to govern, biggest turnout since 1981, Melenchon makes a lot of noise (which markets would clearly not like, lot more debts, OAT's down etc), Macron will call for some to join him, let's see, strange quirk of French election results saw Le Pen's RN finish third whilst taking 37% of the popular vote whilst the 'winning' left alliance took just 25% & Macron party just 23% >>> wouldn't be surprised to see a more 'centrist coalition' with an absolute majority, as the extremes left and right do not have enough to stop it happening

  • UK's Labour government not in, but less confrontational and closer to Europe in some specific areas, defence, research, biotech and so on >>> it clearly improves political stability for the UK, which IS a clear winner for outside investors to participate in the 'reset', probably support a rerating of part of the UK equities

  • The UST 10y yields continue to trade inside the perfect trend channel that has been in place since April highs. Note we are below the 200dma (although it is basically flat). Also worth pointing out is the trend line from late Dec

  • Bank of Japan signals progress in wage, price hikes

  • Nato allies to pledge €40bn for Ukraine amid domestic turmoil. Washington summit to set out limited support package for Kyiv as allies grapple with domestic political turmoil

  • While the 206,000 increase in June non-farm payrolls beat consensus expectations of 190,000, the unemployment rate rose to 4.1% from 4% previously

  • BofA: We believe that it is prudent to hedge into CPI, especially with the 2Q earnings season starting this Friday

  • Almost half of the S&P 500 is now essentially tech

 

Market will definitely NOT like this scenario






Nope, nowhere near IMHO






happened in other places in europe lately..Local folks fed up with cost of living, unaffordable housing etc


EURUSD has done nothing for best part of 18months, follow the break when it comes


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