top of page

FED : Word of the day: stagflation / Musk-TSLA at risk / USD, DAX, BUNDs 'turning' / SNB cut #USDCHF up

  • Writer: Stéphan
    Stéphan
  • Mar 20
  • 3 min read

ree

  • Markets : a lot has been priced in, USD downside, BUNDs, DAX etc...BUND reaction after German vote quite clear, USD since struggling to 'weaken further', and DAX has toppe dout - possibly too... FED's message not bullish either - big picture, CHINA has also run a long way >>> PAUSING, reducing usd shorts, DAX longs, BUNDs short etc ahead of month-quarterend and April 2. tariffs date, geopolitics etc etc

  • Stagflation : The Federal Reserve has slashed its US growth forecast and lifted its inflation outlook. It now expects GDP growth of 1.7% this year with prices forecast to rise by 2.7% partly due to President Trump’s tariffs. Policy makers kept the main interest rate on hold and pencilled in 50bps of reductions this year. Meanwhile President Trump urged the central bank to cut rates on Truth Social last night (FT, WSJ, BBG)...one of the best headline “Tariff inflation could be transitory.”

  • The Fed gave us a clear ‘signal’ that wasn’t ‘noise’ today. The 4.4% unemployment rate call for year-end would take it 100 basis points above the cycle low. Back to 1948, that has never happened without an NBER-defined recession

  • EU leaders meet in Brussels today to discuss what role they will play in Trump’s efforts to fast-track a ceasefire in Ukraine. President Zelenskiy agreed to a plan for a mutual halt to strikes on energy assets with Russia in a friendly call with Trump. The US President promised fresh support for Kyiv, including air defence systems, and offered to help run Ukraine’s power supplies, Polish, British finance ministers discuss defence spending, FT says

  • Lagarde: The answer to the shift in US trade policies should be more – not less – trade integration, both with global and EU trade partners. The Single Market can contain the impact of global trade fragmentation. A united Europe is a stronger Europe

  • Forget about rare earth minerals. We need more copper

  • Global silver market faces strains as Trump’s tariffs hit

  • Top Tesla investor Ross Gerber has officially called for Elon Musk to step down as the head of Tesla... (or he leaves DOGE...)

  • Amazon now trades at a lower forward P/E than Walmart, is AMZN too cheap ot Walmart still too high though..? the latter IMHO..

  • OIK MARKET: President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine agreed in phone call with President Donald Trump to accept Russia’s offer for a mutual pause in attacks on energy target




Bessent still very transparent about the administration’s plan:


1.De-leveraging the government by shedding excess labour

2.Deregulate the financial system, which, in turn, re-leverages the private sector. 3.Encouraging private sector employment, allowing those initially displaced to be absorbed by a growing economy.



Full statement










 
 
 

Comments

bottom of page