Week ahead : U.S ISM services tom (53 exp), BoC (dovish hold) and Powell delivers semiannual testimony to Congress and then the House Services committee (opportunity for Powell to give further insight on timing of cuts), ECB on Thursday (Powell again) and Friday U.S job report + the usual geopolitics, Crude prices remain firm(er), WTU $80 for first time since Nov 2023 - OPEC+ extended its oil supply cutbacks to the middle of the year in a bid to avert a global surplus
From Logan's speech last week it is now obvious Fed intends to drain RRP, and Waller's view of shifting Fed Treasury holdings towards bills complement's Treasury's own expectation of meaningful deviations of bill share above their 20% guideline. Treasury is going to issue more bills, and Fed will buy more of them as well / Thread
China's Premier Li urges stronger economic, trade ties with US >>> China pushing hard to loosen up relationship
U.S ISM has been under 50 for over one year, and yet GDP prodding along 2-3%, does this data even mean anything anymore ? >>> February ISM Manufacturing PMI down to 47.8 vs. 49.5 est. & 49.1 in prior month; new orders fell to 49.2 vs. 52.5 prior; prices paid eased slightly to 52.5 vs. 52.9 prior … employment fell to 45.9 vs. 47.1 prior, yields dropped 5-7bps, risk loved it on Friday - however, construction spending was up again, 120% up last 2years...
Odds rise that Japan will lift negative interest rates in March. BOJ Gov. Ueda says outcome of annual wage talks this month will be pivotal
Colm Kelleher whipped up a storm at the end of last year when the UBS Group AG chairman warned of a dangerous bubble in private credit 'flawed valuations', got even whackier since that speech!
‘India has arrived.’ Why Modi’s economy offers a real alternative to China
Inflation remains sticky in Europe, with core prices cooling less than expected
The economics of skiing in America ''To be allowed up there your correspondent, an unsavvy European, paid $260 for a single day’s lift ticket'' - skiing became very expensive last 10years, it is now a luxury sport (in many places, not everywhere)
Why did Rishi Sunak accept a private jet ride from an alleged fraudster? Labour urges prime minister to give ‘full and honest account’ after entrepreneur who is embroiled in a civil case with investors paid for a trip on plane
BofA’s Savita Subramanian raised her S&P 500 year-end target to 5400 on Friday, implying 5% upside from here. She cites “surprising margin resilience” and a better economic outlook globally, but warns that the likelihood of a near-term pullback is high
Yardeni : “.. If this is the 1990s all over again, are we in 1994 or are we closer to 1999? We aren’t sure. However, we are sure that, as occurred during the second half of the 1990s, the stock market is having a significantly positive wealth effect on the economy .. another reason to believe .. the Fed might hesitate to lower [rates] for a while—maybe a long while.”
GOLD : technically, we've had an almost 3year consolidation, last time we had this in 2016/19, when XAU eventually broke through.. it was pretty powerful
Kamala Harris to meet with Israel war cabinet member after calling for Gaza ceasefire
Markets : loved a soft U.S manuf data, plenty of possiblevol event this week (Powell testimony, ECB) and in March with possible BoJ action. Fed Waller's message key for RRP, curve and risk
Joseph Wang on X: "Waller's view of shifting Fed Treasury holdings towards bills complement's Treasury's own expectation of meaningful deviations of bill share above their 20% guideline. Treasury is going to issue more bills, and Fed will buy more of them as well. https://t.co/UFoMRpTN5Z" / X (twitter.com)
Years of hesitation........
Euro zone inflation February 2024 (cnbc.com) touch higher than expected
One of the most fundamental responsibilities of the federal government is to set and pass a budget every year, allocating funding towards the nation’s needs and priorities. The new fiscal year began on October 1, 2023, but Congress and the President failed to enact all 12 appropriation bills necessary to fund the government for fiscal year 202
The meteoric rise of private credit funds has been powered by a simple pitch to the insurers and pensions who manage people’s money over decades: Invest in our loans and avoid the price gyrations of rival types of corporate finance. The loans will trade so rarely — in many cases, never — that their value will stay steady, letting backers enjoy bountiful and stress-free returns. This irresistible proposal has transformed a Wall Street backwater into a $1.7 trillion market
Ukraine destroys Russian Murom-M surveillance complex with precision drone strike – video (yahoo.com)
Middle East crisis live: Kamala Harris to meet with Israel war cabinet member after calling for Gaza ceasefire (msn.com)
GOLD - $2100 + and we may off to the races, poor man's gold XAGUSD too when above $25+ properly
Silver - 200dma around $23.25 - break of which would be a first bullish sign, then $25+
