CS-AT1 landmark decision / BHP-Yuan / BofAFM survey / RareEarths key / Dimon : Gold 10K ? / Heavy geopolitics
- Stéphan
- Oct 16
- 4 min read
Landmark Decision: Court Rules Credit Suisse bond wipeout was unlawful >>> so who will pick up the tab eventually ? taxpayers ?....dream scenario for lawyers and for years to come..
Markets : US PURCHASED ARGENTINE PESOS THIS MORNING: AXIOS, The Iron-Dollar Crack: BHP's quiet surrender to the Yuan (Thread!), Dimon said gold can get to $10K (he didn't say this unless there is a reason, so why?..UST revalues gold up there and that's over $2.5trn USD into the TGA...?..thoughts ?), see BofAFMs survey below/thread, JPN coalition not so easy #JPY, Oz jobs data slips
Trade : US Treasury Secretary Bessent suggests possibility of longer China tariff truce, ''We want to help China, not hurt it¨¨, US Trade Representative Greer: We are expecting Chinese restrictions not to be implemented and go back to prior agreement
Geopolitics : Venezuelan F-16s were reportedly scrambled due to US airforce presence to the North, Pete Hegseth-“If there is no path to peace in the short term, then the United States, along with our allies, will take steps necessary to impose costs on Russia for its continued aggression.” (very notable rhetoric shift), The Pentagon has developed plans to sell or transfer Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, thats a game changer, US military won't be needed to disarm Hamas, UK vs China spy case mass, Trump says Modi assured him India will stop Russian oil purchases, but timeline unclear
UK: Anatomy of a Rolling Fiscal Crisis – Part 2, from the excellent BlondeMoney
China FM : China and EU should be partners and enhance mutual trust - ministry
Sebastien Lecornu looks set to survive two no-confidence motions today. The censure motions from National Rally and France Unbowed may not get the support of Socialist lawmakers
Of course it’s a bubble’: AI start-up valuations soar in investor frenzy. Unprecedented funding leads 10 groups including OpenAI and Elon Musk’s xAI to gain almost $1tn in value in past year. (FT)
Microsoft aims to make most new products outside China from 2026 - report
Here we go again US Banks Cheer Regulators' Steps Toward Easing Capital Requirements
EU should take a rational and pragmatic view of rare earth export control measures: China Daily editorial - Opinion - Chinadaily.com.cn
The Kobeissi Letter on X: "Gold is going mainstream: 43% of global fund managers say “Long Gold” is the most crowded trade, according to a BofA survey of 166 participants with $400 billion in assets. Gold has reclaimed the lead after 3 consecutive months where “Long Magnificent 7” topped the list. https://t.co/Vj1RJQmpk2" / X
Travis Ricciardo on X: "The Iron-Dollar Crack: BHP's Quiet Surrender to the Yuan Late Friday afternoon, while markets were closing and Canberra was clocking off, BHP agreed to something that may define the decade. From the fourth quarter of 2025, the world’s biggest miner will settle 30 per cent of https://t.co/x3ELOd5Fu4" / X
Fifteen years ago, BHP anchored iron ore to the dollar system by killing the annual benchmark and adopting spot index pricing. Now it’s loosening that anchor, settling in yuan and drifting toward China’s financial tide. Time to learn Mandarin... and probably hoard (still hold imho) gold, ''XAUUSD is overbought in short-term and under owned in long-term''
It's going to get more volatile !
What we know about rising gold prices
Rising gold prices and soaring long-term yields have the same driver: too much debt
Well documented overall in markets, but very nicely put here ! EndGame Macro on X: "The Quiet Transformation Behind QT Quantitative tightening never actually reached the long end of the curve. Since 2022, the Fed hasn’t been meaningfully reducing its holdings of 10 year and longer Treasuries, the red line keeps climbing. The so called balance sheet reduction https://t.co/PX9yv7xncb" / X
Top man Ed - well explained too Ed Conway on X: "📽️ The @IMFNews World Economic Outlook is arguably the single most important report in the economic calendar. So what did we learn from the latest one? As it happens, quite a lot... About tariffs (and why they haven't led to disaster). AI. And more. Here's my in-depth primer👇 https://t.co/Lkz5zgoi4m" / X
Visioner on X: "🇷🇺🔥"The current attack of the Russian army against Ukraine resembles a prolonged slaughter, which in terms of destruction and losses can be compared to the Battle of Stalingrad. There is no talk of any breakthrough; the situation is simply at a dead end," said Oleg Pakholkov, a https://t.co/donfh4xT50" / X
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