Powell: "The recent data have clearly not given us greater confidence and instead indicate that it is likely to take longer than expected to achieve that confidence" that inflation will return to 2%. >> macro data keeps coming in strong(er) than expected #highforlonger
The economic divergence between U.S and Europe is staggering / Thread below
BoA FM survey for April : average cash down to 4.2% (4.4%), allocations to equities increased again to 34% overweight, highest since Jan 2022, bond allocation plunged to -14% underweight, the biggest monthly drop since 2003, ''super-core inflation is rising again'' >>>> risk of further eq correction lower/hedging/lightening up continues, more than ever likely as rates stay firm, let alone firmer
Bank of Korea chief says won volatility is a little ‘excessive’ and will intervene if needed >>> partly driven by JPY weakness, risk is CNH will at some point too
Russia told OPEC it would export less oil. It's actually exporting more (surprise?), China and India are propping up Russian oil exports amid sanctions
US to hit Iran with new sanctions in "coming days", Yellen says
Frozen Russian assets ‘will help fund Ukraine’ as G7 deal nears
IMF has cut Germany's GDP in 2024 to 0.2%, after projecting a 0.5% rise in its Jan. Europe's biggest economy is predicted to have the weakest growth of all G7 industrialized nations for the current year. For 2025, IMF revised German growth to 1.3% from prev 1.6% >>> persistent weak consumer sentiment, structural problems, working population etc. Global growth unch at 3.2%
"Long Treasuries are once again yielding more than stocks. For a generation that had grown accustomed to a stock market that yielded more, making asset allocation decisions much easier, this development makes life much harder''
UK inflation drops to 3.2% in March as Bank of England hints at rate cuts >>> with core inflation at still 4.2% ?
Something to keep in mind, as we approach election time, after all the court cases!
Inflation data this morning not as friendly as expected, core still above 4% !
KRW following JPY, which eventually will put pressure on CNH
Russia to grow faster than all advanced economies (msn.com) all on government spending, weapons, war machine...not sustainable..
Robin Brooks on X: "The scale of economic divergence between the US and Europe is simply staggering. This kind of divergence also happened after the 2008 crisis, but what is happening now is on another level. The Euro belongs far below parity for Europe to lift itself out of this crisis... https://t.co/9f87IDed33" / X (twitter.com)
Michael Pettis on X: "1/5 Chinese GDP grew by 5.3% in the first quarter of 2024, well above expectations, reinforcing concerns that GDP growth in China means something quite different than GDP growth in economies that operate under hard-budget constraints. https://t.co/wuCdUtULZv" / X (twitter.com)
In past commentaries, we have been highlighting the widening valuation gap between gold and gold equities. In March, gold equities finally came back and displayed their leverage to the gold price. This may mark the beginning of a long-anticipated trend reversal for gold mining equities. After years of underperformance against the metal, the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index and the MVIS Global Juniors Gold Miners Index significantly outperformed gold in the month of March, up 19.61% and 21.50%, respectively
#NASDAQ correction might be welcome/be constructive long-term, #timeforahedgingtrade
