Sri Lanka hikes power prices by 66% , hoping for IMF bailout . Fund's backing depends on government commitment to raising taxes, cutting debt Credit Suisse says it has paid $210 million to date to billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili in a long-running legal saga UK PM Rishi Sunak and EU's Von Der Leyen to speak before the end of the week , text of Northern Ireland protocol deal to go before the DUP on Monday - The Times >> could we finally get some positive news there?.. Fed's Mester (non voter) : More Rate Hikes Needed To Combat Inflation - higher for longer etc. At the last FOMC meeting, “I saw a compelling economic case for a 50-basis-point increase, which would have brought the top of the target range to 5%” Scenarios where the Fed leaves rates higher for longer or raises policy rates above our base case terminal rate of 5.25-5.5% are becoming more likely:" Citi, they all slowly coming to the conclusion..Fed’s Bullard says he joined Mester in pushing for a 50 basis-point rate hike at last policy meeting >>> IMHO, 50bps were not priced in at all of late, now Fed officials forcing markets to price some risk of 50bps, unlikely though BoC : similar message . While Canada may have turned the corner on inflation, we know that it will take time to get back to the Bank’s inflation target. So, I’d like to take this opportunity to talk about the importance of staying the course in the fight against inflation, despite the short-term pain that high interest rates can cause RBA boss Philip Lowe says rate rises hurting households, indications are they will go higher Philly Fed was not pretty to say the least, coming in at -24.3 vs -7.6 expectations. Last reading was -8.9. - New orders index remained negative (!!!) - Employment index declined, but remained positive - Expectations are tempered for growth over next six month period The People’s Bank of #China offered 835 billion yuan ($121 billion) of cash via seven-day reverse repurchase contracts on Friday, resulting in an injection of 632 billion yuan on a net basis. That’s the largest one-day addition on record in data going back to 2004 Goldman Sachs Expects Three More 25bps Hikes In March, May, And June, 2023 For A Peak Funds Rate Of 5.25-5.5% 'The explosive rise of short-dated options is creating event risk on the scale of the stock market's early-2018 volatility implosion, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s Marko Kolanovic.' Uncle Sam is on track to add more than $19 trillion in national debt over the next decade Markets : Rates matter as reality catches up to equities. Let's see if things can get even more dynamic should we try the 4% level in the 10 year... USD stays fir(er), beginning to break some resistance , USDUSD 0.9250+, AUDUSD below 0.6850/75 area, EURUSD below 1.0700/50 area, all levels that held for last 2-3weeks, CABLE below 1.20, USDJPY responding the easiest so long as BoJ quiet on YCC (but risk is hey do eventually..). Bonds, hikes extending, test of 4% in 10's UST looks on the cards, higher for longer The slight recovery in Gold, commods and so on last few days, quickly reversed again yesterday SPX500 4150 resistance now well defines, QQQ caught up a little with rates yesteday, after this massive rally since early Jan, beware. Whole daily sentiment driven by 0DTE option markets, quite ridiculous but it is what it (all it means it can swing either way, very quickly) >>> "the short covering in US Tech stocks from Jan 31st to Feb 15th is the second largest in magnitude over any 12-day period in the past decade and ranks in the 99.5th percentile" GS PB Worth revisiting recent thoughts : Higher for longer = it won’t be all pain for all assets. Quite the contrary; it will bring a refreshing return of productive investment and a brighter future for everyone. The return to more productive deployment of capital will have to mean investing more in the real, physical world to accomplish the new set of supply chain and resource access imperatives, not pouring money into digital platforms that capture excess profits by monopolising markets and user attention. On that note, our equity strategist Peter Garnry looks at whether the multiple decades of underperformance for equities dealing in tangible assets is ending, with intangibles and financials set to underperform after decades of excess financialisation. He also pokes into the geographies that look the most interesting as supply chains diversify U.S. Debt Will Keep Growing. Here Is Where the Money Will Go. | Barron's (barrons.com) Weston Nakamura on Twitter: "🇯🇵BOJ Personnel in post-Kuroda Era (thread) 1/ While everyone focuses squarely on newly nominated BOJ Gov Kazuo Ueda- what I want to know far more than “who Ueda is”: WHY did current BOJ Deputy Gov & frontrunner Amamiya DECLINE the job? What does he know/see that Ueda doesn’t?" / Twitter Sri Lanka hikes power prices by 66%, hoping for IMF bailout - Nikkei Asia Credit Suisse has paid Georgian billionaire US$210 million | The Edge Markets Fed's Mester says more rate hikes needed to combat inflation | Reuters Fed’s Bullard says he joined Mester in pushing for a 50 basis-point rate hike at last policy meeting (msn.com) No two ways about it: Why the Bank is committed to getting back to 2% - Bank of Canada RBA boss Philip Lowe says rate rises hurting households, indications are they will go higher - ABC News Massimo on Twitter: "A theoretical calculation says that we could satisfy the world current demand for power by covering 1.2% of the Sahara Desert with solar panels [read more 1: https://t.co/DqLfYsxaPz] [read more 2: https://t.co/aw10wCkcP7] https://t.co/GTxOWGQJit" / Twitter JPMorgan Strategist Kolanovic Warns of ‘Volmageddon 2.0’ Risk in Options Market - Bloomberg daily options, super short-term stuff, JPMorgan’s Kolanovic Warns of ‘Volmageddon 2.0’ Risk in Options How Ukrainian photographers captured a year of conflict | Financial Times (ft.com) some powerful pictures Chinese Spy Balloon ‘Graphic Reminder’ Of Geopolitical Market Risks—Here’s What It Means For Stocks (forbes.com) Retail investors are pouring a record $1.5 billion per day into the stock market (yahoo.com) Tesla remained the favorite among this group, with retail inflows to the stock totaling $9.7 billion year-to-date in 2023 so far, TSLA turned yesterday into close too

Germany to Hike Defense Budget by Up to €10 Billion in 2024. Defense minister aims to lift military spending to €60 bn. Scholz pledged his government would meet NATO’s 2% France : new reporting obligation in real estate, collecting information to help the tax authorities establish the housing tax on second homes , the tax on vacant premises and the housing tax on vacant housing, starting to tax those 2nd homes (...likely that it will happen in many more countries...incl. CH) Credit Suisse pays Double to lure investors to its euro bond offering -The European Commission proposed disconnecting Alfa-Bank, Rosbank and Tinkoff Bank from SWIFT as part of the tenth package of anti-Russian sanctions Inflation is not getting to 2% this year, that's pretty sure, 3% hopefully..but pretty unlikely too, we should count ourselves fortunate if median inflation gets to about 4%, this will be a 'good' result...Bringing inflation down will be a multi year project..(IMHO), but that's in many ways a good thing! why you asking ? because it will be the return to more productive deployment of capital, which will mean investing more in the real, physical world to accomplish the new set of supply chain, resource access imperatives, and new well paid jobs for the younger generation Brookfield (the largest office landlord in downtown LA) defaulted on loans tied to two office skyscrapers in the city, the Gas Company Tower and the 777 Tower , which carry loans totaling $784 million, higher rates biting, which should not be a surprise in this sector (bigger issue is rising vacant rates actually, and LA not the only place youhear such stories..) HF cover bid on our desk again today. Expect this trend to continue tomorrow with much better than expected numbers from CSCO, ZG, TWLO and ROKU post close. Most of these are crowded shorts and will inflict pain on fast money community tomorrow." - GS FICC Nestle plans price hikes after inflation eats into profits BoJ Head Nominee Ueda To Speak At Japan's Lower House On Feb 24 Markets : 6 month T-bill yield at about 16 year high over 5% >>> remember those 50bps of rate cuts that were priced for end of 2023...they are nearly gone, still 15bps priced..(rest pushed further out), high(er) for longer UST 2s10s spread 87bps inversion, that's pretty fierce - MOVE index/Bond vols softer again helping (chart below) >>> 10's UST yields already moved up from 3.40 to 3.80 since Feb NFP... USDollar 'has' already moved higher in last 2-3weeks since NFP, together with 10's. For those looking for a BoJ move on YCC comes April, these levels near 134JPY are attractive again to buy a few Yen (via option-spreads) GOLD same picture, moved down as per above, big support around $1820 Equity markets, Tech rules since early Jan, massive short covering in the high beta stuff, TSLA has doubled in price since then!.. and many others, market makers pedalling behind together with all the 0DTE flows, still a lot of liquidities in these markets then!... 10 day realized vol on ES at 12% now. 2nd lowest level since Jan 2022 Crude/commods hoding where they should for the bulls - correction over ? (charts below) Kazuo Ueda: Next BOJ chief inherits world's toughest central bank job - Nikkei Asia MOVE Index Charts and Quotes — TradingView That's a pretty cool website - some great content folks - you can also subscribe to newsletter for free - see if u like it The Armchair Trader: Stock Market Tips, News and Analysis Technical Update - Is the correction over in Gold, Silver and Copper? | Saxo Group (home.saxo) Financial Markets Today: Quick Take – February 16, 2023 | Saxo Group (home.saxo) Summary: The US equity market put in a solid advance yesterday even as treasury yields remain near recent highs. Sentiment in Asia recovered smartly overnight after a stumble yesterday. In FX, yesterday's sharp USD advance paused, while in commodities, oil is pushing back higher near important resistance levels and gold is nearing major support after a drop of more than a hundred dollars per ounce in just two weeks. Interest rates: ECB president reaffirms plans for half-point March hike – The Irish Times been fully priced in for a long while, and more behind..nothing new China has resumed regular passenger flights with 58 countries as of Feb. 12, with 98 Chinese and foreign airlines handling 795 passenger flights last week, up 65% from the week before China downgraded management of COVID-19 from Class A to Class B, said the CAAC Thursday >>> no-one talks covid anymore, good riddance ! All the leaders of the UK’s 6 largest parties in the 2019 General Election have now resigned: CON: Boris Johnson LAB: Jeremy Corbyn LDM: Jo Swinson SNP: Nicola Sturgeon BRX/REF: Nigel Farage GRN: Sian Berry Insolent, unproductive and dominated by HR, the Civil Service thinks it rules Britain (telegraph.co.uk) A 'cocktail' of sticky inflation and a tight labor market boosts Bank of England rate hike bets (cnbc.com) France : nouvelle obligation déclarative en matière immobilière (degroofpetercam.com) 'In my head and in my heart, I know the time is now' - Nicola Sturgeon announces resignation as Scotland's first minister | Politics News | Sky News Brookfield REIT Defaults on Los Angeles Office Towers: Reports – Commercial Observer Further signs of crisis at Home REIT as firm considers putting itself up for sale | Evening Standard Nestle plans price hikes after inflation eats into profits (msn.com) Trump attacks Haley on Medicare, Social Security cuts | The Hill Of course he would...he came 2nd Charlie Munger still likes big banks and hates crypto (msn.com) Ohio train derailment 2023 update: Lawsuit says Norfolk’s clean up efforts ‘made it worse’ as locals demand answers | The Independent LIVE — NATO chief speaks after talks on ammunition, Ukraine (msn.com) Hong Kong looks to jumpstart tourism with free plane tickets, vouchers - Nikkei Asia Australian gold miner Newcrest Mining is “worth a lot more” than the approximately $17 billion takeover bid made by US rival Newmont, the company’s interim chief executive officer says Newcrest CEO Says Ball Is in Newmont’s Camp in Takeover Talks - Bloomberg NASDAQ100 could surprise a few to topside - too many shorts still/positioning etc have a super Thursday Team PVM

US CPI has moved down from a peak of 9.1% last June to 6.4% in January. What's driving that decline? Lower rates of inflation in New/Used Cars, Gasoline, Medical Care, Apparel, Food at Home, Electricity, Gas Utilities, and Fuel Oil >>> inflation is not going up as quickly as it did, that's all, it's not about disinflation or lower inflation, having said this there has been a few positive developments last few months, clearly, and the data is also questionable in parts (old), specifically things like shelters, let's see whether U.S retail sales reinforce this view this afternoon Dutch annual natural gas use drops to lowest for 50years , thank you mild winter, also shows when everyone is prepared to make an effort, it works.. and you cut costs to UK's Michael Gove’s Brexit U-turn - At a “secret” meeting over the weekend, the Levelling Up Secretary was "very honest" about the shortcomings of Brexit (story below), and finally ! Brexit deal meets DUP's seven red lines, Downing Street to declare...There are hopes the move can pave the way for Northern Ireland power-sharing to return With the 26 million barrels release confirmed last night (due to Congress mandated sales), the size of the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve will drop to ~345 million barrels by mid-year, the lowest level in 40 years Fed's Barkin: There's going to be a lot more persistence to inflation than we want Fed's Williams speech ''our work is not yet done'' & Fed's Harker says similar Indian tycoon Gautam Adani dismisses market volatility as ‘temporary’ NATO members should spend a minimum of 2% of GDP on defense , Germany says, that's one sure thing for the next many many years : increase in defense spending BlackRock downgrades Japan stocks on possible monetary policy shift White House: No indication objects were part of China spy program , can we all calm down now please and, good news!, There are "no signs of ET" in British skies, the Defence Secretary says after unidentified flying objects were shot down in the US Vanguard Value ETF VTV was a top buy among HF's last quarter as 39 hedge funds added about half a billion worth of shares while 18 exited, one of the highest buy/sell ratios of any equity Markets : Post U.S CPI, the message is clear, high(er) for longer in rates, rate hikes are being 'extended', new contracts lows in June, &Sep Fed meetings , the 200bps of cuts remain though slightly further out, basically the peak has moved/trended form March to July 2023 by now (ever since NFP in early Feb) >>> high (er) for longer... Market is data watching, stronger data, will push rate hikes further out again (similar picture in UK and Spanish CPI this morning-sticky!) USD initially down & risk rallied, all got reversed pretty swiftly during the U.S session >>> in reality CROSSJPY's higher for now on higher yields, and as long as Ueda does not make any radical changes to policy (it will come, but not yet) HSI : the furious rally topped in late Jan, down a good 10pct form highs then. Many market participants surprised relative equity strength vs UST yields/rates Commodities all a little softer >>> sticky inflation, higher USD, recession risk etc 6months U.S Tbills 5%, 2year slowly getting back towards 4.75% which is definitely worth considering for some of this USDollar assets Citi: "Details of January CPI that were different from our forecast leave us more confident that upcoming inflation prints will remain strong. Even as shelter prices eventually start to moderate...rebounds in components like used cars and airfares present upside risks" Matthew Luzzetti, chief US economist at Deutsche Bank, forecasts the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points at its next four meetings, reaching a peak of 5.5% to 5.75% in July Incoming BOJ head Ueda will end yield control, keep low rates - ex-c.bank executive (yahoo.com) Michael Gove's Brexit U-turn - The New European Damn lies! At least he admits (unlike many other fanatics) that it was bad idea, particularly a very bad delivery.. UK inflation falls but remains in double digits at 10.1% | Inflation | The Guardian Still far too high El-Erian, Rogoff Say Too Late to Fix Too-Low Inflation Target - Bloomberg El-Erian, Rogoff Say It’s Too Late to Fix Too-Low Inflation Target. They both see higher US interest rates for some time to come. Higher real rates mean lower asset prices,’ says Rogoff >>>> why do we have to have 2% inflation target ?? why cant iot ne changed ? to say 3% , who decided 2% is right, right for who anyway ? Our Work Is Not Yet Done - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK (newyorkfed.org) Dutch annual natural gas use drops to lowest for 50 years | Reuters FCA and West Yorkshire police raid crypto operators in UK first | Cryptocurrencies | The Guardian Singapore budget: 2022 deficit lower than expected; inflation, GST support (cnbc.com) Indian tycoon Gautam Adani dismisses market volatility as 'temporary' (cnbc.com) BlackRock downgrades Japan stocks on possible monetary policy shift (cnbc.com) Holger Zschaepitz on Twitter: "Good Morning from #Germany where gas storage level has dropped to 72.5% full due to colder weather but is still way above the 5y seasonal norm of 49.8% for this time of year. https://t.co/xl4gPH8Xds" / Twitter Mexico's top diplomat says met with Tesla brass, 'good news' imminent (yahoo.com) The Average New Car Payment Sounds Like A Sick Joke - TheStreet Ohio train derailment update: Anger at Biden and Buttigieg for ‘ignoring’ East Palestine toxic chemicals disaster | The Independent this is a terrible terrible natural disaster - kept very quiet

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s government nominated Kazuo Ueda to helm the Bank of Japan on Tuesday in a move likely to pave the way for a gradual paring back of the central bank’s full-bore stimulus . The next Bank of Japan governor's first task will be to tweak monetary policy without wrecking the economy, upending markets or crippling the BOJ’s balance sheet. And that’s just the start of a long to-do list Switzerland January CPI +3.3% vs +2.9% y/y expected , published yesterday, again some inflation data that remains pretty sticky! Apple cofounder Steve Wozniak thinks ChatGPT is 'pretty impressive,' but warned it can make 'horrible mistakes', don't trust it blindly ! UAE energy minister: Oil market is balanced. No need for extraordinary OPEC+ meeting China’s Savings Conundrum by Zhang Jun: The increase in China's savings largely reflects economic uncertainty, rather than pent-up demand - important if true and Top US and China diplomats Antony Blinken and Wang Yi weigh first meeting since balloon row, good that they meet US balloons illegally flew over China more than 10 times since the beginning of 2022, according to Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin >>> #balloongate Oz : Major companies say it is getting harder to push through higher prices, amid a plunge in consumer confidence and warnings from NAB that interest rates will need to rise to 4.1 per cent to tackle inflation How Citigroup Helped Lift the Lid on Trafigura’s Nickel Nightmare Belarus : various countries asking their embassy to leave Russia-Ukraine war live: Nato defence ministers to meet in Brussels, Bakhmut under heavy fire Markets : Ahead of U.S CPI and retail sales tomorrow, Mr Markets has 2x 25bps and a little bit more priced in up to July, a Terminal rate around 5.25% by July, and at least 1x 25bps cut byyear-end (more cuts in 2024), the cuts is where the market disagree with Fed The mid-1990s were the ultimate ''higher for longer''.. scenario fed raised rates from 3 to 6% in 1994-95 (brutal bond market collapse in '94, MXN, MYR deval etc etc), then the Fed kept rates at an elevated 5 to 6%% level for over 3years.. SPX500 4150 area resistance again, fair to say 'many' market participants surprised of these market strength in recent days/weeks USD, let's see price action post U.S CPI, we pointed out recently 1,0750 EURUSD and 132.50+ USDJPY as key levels for further momentum one way or another, higher yields should continue to favour higher CROSSJPY's, CHF remains strong with higher inflation print earlier this week Financial Markets Today: Quick Take – February 14, 2023 | Saxo Group (home.saxo) Summary: US equity markets snapped back higher yesterday after having toyed below pivotal levels in the case of the S&P 500. Investors are likely hoping for a benign US January CPI print today that will keep rising US Treasury yields from spoiling the outlook for equities on hopes that peak Fed tightening has already been priced, with about two and a half 25-bp hikes priced for the next four Fed meetings. https://saxostrats.podbean.com/e/another-us-cpi-circus-today-tightening-financial-conditions/ always worth a listen China's Savings Conundrum - The Wire China Top US and China diplomats Antony Blinken and Wang Yi weigh first meeting since balloon row | South China Morning Post (scmp.com) Russia-Ukraine war live: Nato defence ministers to meet in Brussels; Bakhmut under heavy fire (theguardian.com) How Citigroup Helped Lift the Lid on Trafigura’s Nickel Nightmare (yahoo.com) >>> the effect of higher rates !! are yet to be really seen or felt in many places (that's the type of risk and issues that can and will pop out - rate hikes slowly working through the system) Residents in Ohio Town Worry after Controlled Blast Carried Out to Stop Chemicals on Derailed Train from Exploding (news18.com) Ueda Nominated for Central Bank Head as a BOJ-Favored ‘Outsider’ (yahoo.com) Swiss Consumer Price Inflation Exceeds Expectations | 13.02.23 | finanzen.at Steve Wozniak Warns ChatGPT Can 'Make Horrible Mistakes': CNBC (businessinsider.com) 'Day of pain': Wirecard boss denies charges in massive fraud trial | Reuters Mark Cuban Trashes ChatGPT, AI, As Vehicles for Online Misinformation (businessinsider.com) UK ready to snub EU’s £88bn science scheme over Brexit row | The Independent Michelle Donelanm, the new secretary of the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology, said she is prepared to snub the EU’s £88.6bn flagship research scheme and create an alliance with the United States, Japan and Switzerland Richard Sharp ‘must fall on his sword and resign as BBC chairman’, says Jonathan Dimbleby | Evening Standard Good News! The most timely estimate of UK payrolled employees for January 2023 shows another monthly increase, up 102,000 on the revised December 2022 figures, to 30.0 million. Cyclone Gabrielle worst storm to hit New Zealand this century, says PM | Cyclone Gabrielle | The Guardian good grief, one disaster after another, make it stop! RBA interest rates: Consumer confidence sinks to fresh lows, NAB predicts rates to hi 4.1pc (afr.com) S&P500 have a great day Team PVM

China GDP: IMF urges ‘comprehensive reforms’ to bring economy back in line with growth potential-Without reforms, China’s growth could drop to about 4 per cent on average over the next five years and 3 per cent on average between 2028-37, according to the IMF Approximately 130 people were arrested or are the target of arrest warrants issued by Turkish officials for their involvement in alleged faulty and illegal construction methods U.S. military brings down flying object over Lake Huron The Bank of Japan's expected next governor Kazuo Ueda likely won't rush to overhaul ultra-loose policy and will instead let economic data guide the exit timing, said Tetsuya Inoue, who was Ueda's staff secretary when he was a central bank board member >>> at least not until Kuroda is actually out of the door in April.. Israel : Coalition signals some readiness to weigh Herzog judicial proposal, will delay votes Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker said on Friday the surprisingly strong jobs data reported last week did not alter his view that moving to smaller interest rate rises was a good strategy for the central bank , as he flagged the prospect of rate cuts in 2024 should inflation continue to ease Downside convexity could become an issue. GS program trading desk writes: "Inflecting CTA flow could translate to an approx. 20% sell off in US equities over a month in a down tape scenario" Germany's Olaf Scholz suffers loss at Berlin election SPX500 : Investors paying up to protect themselves in case stock mkt sinks : Contracts protecting against 10% decline in S&P 500 ETF in next 30d cost 1.7 times more than options that profit from 10% rally, BBG reports / Risk appetite for protection high Coming week : we have key U.S CPI data tomorrow, 0.1% difference won't change anything but will get Algo's going, as usual. UK Inflation on Wednesday, and more earnings SEC Chief Gensler warns Crypto firms to comply with Rules after Kraken shutters US Staking Program Rishi Sunak has ordered senior officials to draw up plans for strengthening Britain's relationship with the EU Iranian President to Visit China This Week on Xi’s Invite Markets : Fighting inflation by rising rates will prove to be a tough task with debt to GDP near or above 100% of GDP >> "the fastest rate cycle in decades will not end with a whimper" JPY >>> should weaken again under Ueda , from what's been said or not said about him - chart below UST yields grinding higher, U.S CPI tomorrow key, do we really see that 'slowdown' that is priced in already..! or do we suddenly worry about 6% terminal rate type scenario ? USD mixed to slightly firmer again, with a hint of CROSSJPY buying (higher yields) Crude steady, not really reacting much to Russia's cut announcement (higher risk of slow growth ahead?). Copper softer too, taking a breather after the 'China reopening' stories gathered pace last 2-3months BOJ's expected new chief Ueda to let data guide exit timing- ex-staff | Reuters Fed's Harker says small rate hikes on table, opens door to cuts in 2024 (msn.com) China GDP: IMF urges ‘comprehensive reforms’ to bring economy back in line with growth potential | South China Morning Post (scmp.com) Turkey arrests building contractors in wake of earthquake | The Hill U.S. military brings down flying object over Lake Huron | Reuters Alien invasion ! Coalition signals some readiness to weigh Herzog judicial proposal, will delay votes | The Times of Israel Germany's Olaf Scholz suffers loss at Berlin election (msn.com) SEC Chief Gensler Warns Crypto Firms to Comply With Rules After Kraken Shutters US Staking Program (yahoo.com) >>> The regulator has asserted that many tokens and crypto products are really just securities that trade on the blockchain and should be registered with the agency. Gensler took particular issue with how crypto exchanges often play multiple roles. He suggested their business models can create significant conflicts of interest. “We don’t let the New York Stock Exchange also run a hedge fund and trade on the exchange.” he said. “Why would we do it here?” >>> where ever you want to operate in the world, do it within the rules, if not, then it remains in the shadow world.. Rishi Sunak EU Brexit Britain Latest Economic News - Bloomberg Honest Burgers threatens to ‘fire and rehire’ workers who don’t accept loss of paid breaks | Evening Standard Iran’s Raisi to meet with China’s Xi Jinping to strengthen ties | Fox News Robin Brooks on Twitter: "If you think Russia's production cut will lift oil prices, think again. The OPEC+ production cut last November was bigger and failed to lift oil prices, so there's no chance this production cut will do anything. The global recession dynamic is just too powerful. Demand is weak... https://t.co/aUtoQy5Rol" / Twitter Putin faces key ‘dilemma’ of which defences on 800-mile frontline to bolster against Ukrainian offensive - UK | Evening Standard USDJPY 132+ in short-term an 135+ medium term and we could be off to the races again with a combination of higher US yields and Ueda.. Have a great start to the week Team PVM

BoJ to decide on new BoJ Governor next week (14th Feb) , Academic Ueda, Reportedly Tapped As Next BoJ Governor, Says BoJ’s Monetary Policy Is Appropriate, Need To Continue Easy Policy and apan govt to nominate BoJ executive director Shinichi Uchida as new deputy BoJ governor "AI Has Made Me LOSE HOPE.." | Joe Rogan & Elon Musk Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel: stopping rate hikes too soon would be "cardinal sin", no less The largest move in the last 48 hours was: Sweden 20Y. G10 bond yields that had 2 standard deviation moves during the period include: Sweden 20Y, Sweden 10Y, US 2s10s, Sweden 5Y, Sweden 2Y, Canada 30Y Russia aims to cut its March oil production by 500,000 barrels a day in response to the western price caps, Deputy PM Novak says UAE’s biggest bank says no takeover offer for global bank Standard Chartered The Dutch government is cutting its stake in ABN Amro to below 50%, after stepping in to rescue the bank during the 2008 financial crisis Norway Core inflation , which strips out changing energy prices and taxes, rose 6.4% year-on-year, exceeding the central bank's 5.9% expectation for January as well as the 6.1% average prediction among analysts polled by Reuters Markets : SPX500 : whole Twitterconomics.. talking about 'the big buyer of 4050 SPXputs for next week' expiry over the US CPI data - 4040 remain the pivot level for anything more major USD steady, though BoJ will matter for $ sentiment next week and of course U.S CPI Same for bonds, U.S CPI Crude a little better supported again, RU cuts coming The return to more productive deployment of capital will have to mean investing more in the real, physical world to accomplish the new set of supply chain and resource access imperatives, not pouring money into digital platforms that capture excess profits by monopolising markets and user attention. On that note, our equity strategist Peter Garnry looks at whether the multiple decades of underperformance for equities dealing in tangible assets is ending, with intangibles and financials set to underperform after decades of excess financialisation. He also pokes into the geographies that look the most interesting as supply chains diversify Where did it all go wrong for Credit Suisse? - SWI swissinfo.ch Management never actually did anything they promised they were going to do for over 10years? Risk off, BoJ Governor nominee, Adidas dump, SEK soars | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) Riksbank starts active QT: In Sweden, the Riksbank delivered a 50bp rate hike as expected and new rate path broadly in line with expectations signalling another hike in April. More interestingly, they came with a hawkish surprise in the form of active QT, motivated to strengthen the SEK. The Riksbank decided to actively start selling their government bond holdings from April with a pace of SEK3bn per month in nominal SGBs and 0.5bn per month in inflation-linked government bonds. This can be put into relation to current holdings of SEK 288bn nominal SGBs and SEK45bn in linkers, and issuance from Debt Office of SEK2bn bi-weekly in nominal bonds and SEK0.5bn in linkers. According to the press release, the Riksbank will primarily sell longer maturities. The natural market reaction has been a steepening of the SGB curve and cheapening on ASW. See more in our Flash Comment Riksbank - a U-turn for SEK, 9 February. The RBA’s latest inflation and wage predictions help explain why Australia’s interest rate nightmare isn’t over | Interest rates | The Guardian CNBC International on Twitter: "Bank of Japan's Kuroda has 'set the stage' for his successor, says Jesper Koll of Monex Group. https://t.co/NzBWJPrhs6" / Twitter Jesper knows Japan inside out! West Lancashire by-election: Ashley Dalton easily holds seat for Labour - BBC News "AI Has Made Me LOSE HOPE.." | Joe Rogan & Elon Musk - YouTube Business and Trade Secretary signs landmark first partnership with EU nation to boost British exports - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk) Not a trade deal to be clear but a UK-Italy Export and Investment partnership Adidas may take a $1.3 billion income hit if it might probably't shift its Yeezy inventory - Albuquerque Breaking News (breakingnewsalbuquerque.com) Kitchen sinked it ? maybe, worth a turnaround story ? valuations OK, but. lots of issues Lyft is making 'progress towards profitability, but it’s slow progress’: Analyst (yahoo.com) Uber earnings were good/positive, but Lyft down 30pct after hours.. U.K.'s FTSE 100 scaling fresh highs despite cost of living crisis (cnbc.com) because it's not UKcentric, more 'global' names in there! Hunt offers hope on pay settlements but rules out feeding inflation | Business News | Sky News UAE’s biggest bank says no takeover offer for global bank Standard Chartered (msn.com) Whaoo - OMG - Middle East Eye on Twitter: "The scale of just how strong the two earthquakes that struck #Syria and #Turkey were captured on CCTV. The ground is seen shaking and increasing in intensity before the camera is cut off. Live blog here⤵️ https://t.co/Mw5mY4WTZO https://t.co/J50AT4bDye" / Twitter USDJPY - 128/132JPY range - ''faites-vos-jeux, rien de va plus''

ECB deleveraging continues. ECB balance sheet has shrunk by another €18.6bn in the past week to €7,875.4bn as QE redemptions > QE reinvestments. Total assets now equate to 60.3% of Eurozone GDP vs Fed's 32.3%, SNB's 114.7%, BoJ's 132.4%, ECB BS going down faster then FED's balance-sheet !! Biden played a masterclass at the State of the Union - read below CS forecasts substantial net loss for 2023 Fed officials keep pushing back against any pivot expectations. Waller said rates may have to stay higher for longer, Williams called the Dec dot plot a good guide, adding that rates are "barely into restrictive" territory, Cook yesterday, said "we are not done yet.", Kashkari expects the peak to rise above 5% this year. Traders are starting to put big money on the possibility that the Fed tightening cycle has more room to run. Several hefty wagers that the peak rate will reach 6% — nearly a percentage point higher than the current consensus — have popped up this week in different ways, this is the key for markets, broadly speaking Terminal has been priced at 5.25% area, if we have to go to 6% it's a diff ball game Xi rejects "Westernization" and promotes China’s self reliance in new policy speech Remember the 'egg craze''.. Wholesale egg prices have fallen by more than 50% since December, according to Urner Barry data Kashkari... “I pay attention to grocery prices. There is this large tray of lasagna that I used to buy that used to cost around $16. Now it’s around $21. That’s my own little measuring stick of how inflation is going,” he said.... really.. Fed's Williams : Financial conditions seem broadly consistent with the Fed's policy outlook, if financial conditions loosen too much, we would have to go higher on rates "one quote sums up the attitude of the Chinese consumer…. "No one even talks about covid anymore"." - GS Asia Economics analyst M2 and other money supply data forcing many to call for ''recession ''- these old data are not worth what they used to be in predicting anything serious..(not yet anyway with unemployment at 3.4%..) Zelenskiy pushes for swift EU membership in first trip to Brussels since invasion. And he has taken his request for fighter jets to France and Germany following his calls in the UK for more support to help his country’s struggle against Russia’s invasion JPMorgan snippet on AI : We are in the early stages of understanding the impacts of AI, let alone fully grasping the implications of the technology. From a business standpoint, AI could also prove VERY deflationary , not just for tech but for society (remains to be seen) Coinbase's CEO Cites 'Rumors' the SEC May Ban Crypto Staking for Retail Customers Greece bans parties with convicted leaders from running in elections Riksbank hikes rates 50Bps to 3.00%; as expected, classic behind the curve situation etc etc, now forced to overtighten >>> SEK has been battered last few months, EURSEK near multi all time highs (chart below) Markets : SPX500 4150 clean weekly break required for 4300 during Q2 >> Latest AAII weekly survey showed investors are net bullish again -- not only for the first time in nearly a year, but also the MOST bullish since Nov. 2021 . DAX only 4-5% off all time highs! FTSE100 new all time highs BONDS steady, awaiting next week's U.S CPI, EZ inflation hedging lower as is expected by most market participants, 10y Bund getting back to 2.5% where it belongs, actually nearer to 3% probably more like it, but let's how goes from here Crude a little firmer/steady USDollar not exactly rallying beyond the short-covering post NFP so far... Well worth a read, if you haven't already - An Executive Summary In the introduction to this outlook for early 2023, Saxo CIO Steen Jakobsen argues that our economic models and our assumptions for how market cycles are supposed to work are simply broken. And so should they be, as why should we even want to return to the ‘model’ of central banks engaging in moral hazard and bailing out incumbent wealth, rentiers and risk takers, the rinse-and-repeat we have seen in every cycle since Fed Chair Greenspan bailed out LTCM in 1998? This new post-pandemic and post-Ukraine invasion era we find ourselves in has brought an entirely new set of imperatives beyond bailouts and reinflating asset prices. Instead, we need to brace for the impact of higher inflation for longer as we scramble for supply chain reshoring and redundancy, and as we transform our energy systems to reduce reliance on fossil fuels and reduce our impact on the climate. And it won’t be all pain for all assets. Quite the contrary; it will bring a refreshing return of productive investment and a brighter future for everyone Quarterly Outlook Q1 2023 - The models are broken | Saxo Group (home.saxo) Republicans Turn Themselves into Props for Biden - POLITICO Love him or hate him..got to admit it was a clever play! 72 percent of viewers had positive reaction to Biden speech: CNN flash poll | The Hill Why Biden Wants to Quadruple Buyback Tax. It's a Potent Political Issue. | Barron's (barrons.com) Coinbase's (COIN) Brian Armstrong Cites 'Rumors' the SEC May Ban Retail Crypto Staking (coindesk.com) Holger Zschaepitz on Twitter: "#ECB deleveraging continues. ECB Balance Sheet has shrunk by another €18.6bn in the past week to €7,875.4bn as QE redemptions > QE reinvestments. Total assets now equate to 60.3% of Eurozone GDP vs Fed's 32.3%, SNB's 114.7%, BoJ's 132.4%. https://t.co/IvQ1sco8he" / Twitter Xi Rejects Westernization in Show of Faith in Self Reliance (yahoo.com) Wholesale egg prices have 'collapsed' from record highs in December (cnbc.com) 'Alarming' increase in the number of fires caused by e-scooter and e-bike batteries | Science & Tech News | Sky News oh no! JOHN NICOLSON M.P. on Twitter: "Lots of BBC staff have been in touch with me. I told BBC Chair Richard Sharp what they thought of his appointment - a job gifted to him by Boris Johnson. Establishment pals helping pals helping pals. Donating money to pals. Getting jobs from pals. All deeply cosy. @commonsdcms https://t.co/iQku3RHTuT" / Twitter Credit Suisse posts massive annual loss as 'radical' restructure gets underway (cnbc.com) What else..Credit Suisse clients pull a record $120 billion in the fourth quarter, as a fifth-straight quarterly loss caps the Swiss lender's worst year since the financial crisis >>> HOWEVER, good news is leveraged ratios and so on in much better shape...so a clear deleveraging has happened, ready for the new old CS split CSFB direction etc etc, whether this is all good for shareholders is probably another discussion Alphabet Stock Plunge Erases $100 Billion After New AI Chatbot Gives Wrong Answer In Ad (forbes.com) MSCI to revise Adani Group weightings after free float review | Financial Times Greece bans parties with convicted leaders from running in elections (yahoo.com) EURSEK - Riksbank has been behind the curve all the way..

Powell : all about payrolls and CPI, watch those two key data set. Inflation is beginning to ease, but it will be a long process, all about data. Mr Market will continue to price probabilities on a soft, hard or no landing.. Powell, paraphrased: Despite many people believing (or hoping) the Fed's recent inflation projections were too high because inflation would come down faster, the Fed didn't see it that way and, given last week's job report, still doesn't Fed's Kashkari: - I wish we saw more evidence underlying inflation was trending down more. I am not lowering my rate path, it is still around 5.4% The earthquake that struck Turkey and Syria is the deadliest global seismic event in more than a decade as the official death toll surpasses 9,000. Turkey's stock exchange suspends trading for the first time in 24 years BP shares up nearly 7% yesterday >>> that "Back into Petroleum" is exactly what shareholders wanted then "With fourth-quarter results from more than half of the S&P 500 companies already in, earnings per share have fallen 2.8% from a year earlier, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence. That’s less than the 3.3% drop expected before earnings season began." /BBG Announced Stock buybacks more than tripled for January at $132B - a record - 15% higher than last January Fitch revises up China's 2023 GDP growth forecast to 5%., joining other US invest houses in shifting growth forecasts higher #reopening Germany, Denmark and the Netherlands announced Tuesday that they plan to provide Ukraine with at least 100 refurbished Leopard 1 battle tanks in the coming months , a pledge that comes as Kyiv anticipates a new Russian offensive around the anniversary of its invasion Maersk , a global barometer for trade, posts record 2022 earnings but warns of a tough year ahead India has raised interest-rates by 0.25% to 6.5% Markets : SPX500 trying to push though 4150 for 4300 by summer ) pain trade still higher ? see argument put below.. .Europe continues to hold firm(er), Asia working out the China reopening situation still, overall it's full steam ahead USdollar had a brief rally for 30mins during Powell's presser, it is hard to rally beyond what's priced in already, unless market goes and price Terminal rate well above 5%..AUD right back neat 0.7000 levels after this week's hike, risk currencies, EMG (not all) overall in focus. USDJPY didn't manage to hold on to Sunday night's highs around 132.50, resistance still 131-132.50JPY area. BoJ nominees next week though! GBPCHF - it it's going to hold its from around here - chart below Crude rallies a little GOLD trying to recover from Friday's NFP sell-off - following rates/usd India's central bank raises interest rates and hints at possible further increases (thenationalnews.com) Is the pain trade still higher? JPM's cash trader Matt Reiner sums up trading sentiment: "...it feels like investors are “waiting for a pull back to buy” rather than “waiting on a rally to sell” and I think the logic is simple. Investors still are NOT long enough to feel comfortable laying off risk. In fact, the data continues to show investors are still markedly underperforming, and the gaps are widening – The two thematic baskets I’m watching closely are Momentum Short and PURE Beta Winners since they’ve been market leaders YTD and quality tends to follow – The VIX remains comfortably below 20 – The TICK has spent nearly all morning in the RED – We remain thoroughly elevated above the SPX Golden Cross – It feels like there are a lot of mixed signals out there, but the pain trade remains up." Stock Market: Powell’s speech was hawkish. Investors' mood was bullish (cnbc.com) NO not really, certainly not relative to what was priced in all this hawkish & dovish stuff depends on what anyone wants to twist a few words to suit their own narrative, its all about pricing State of the Union 2023: Joe Biden calls for unity as he urges Congress to finish economic fightback (msn.com) Quarterly Outlook Q1 2023 - The models are broken | Saxo Group (home.saxo) Look beyond what those models are suppose to tell investors... Let's be clear the FED sets policy for the next couple of meetings, always has, always will, particularly in fast moving economies, no matter what people want to hear on daily or weekly basis. Mr Market sets a policy, a view, a pricing, a curve for the next 18months.. Yahoo Finance on Twitter: "Pres. Biden on the Corporate Minimum Tax and the Billionaire's Minimum Tax proposal: https://t.co/PGkiMuYLWA" / Twitter Charlie Bilello on Twitter: "Global Central Bank Update: -Australia hiked rates for the 9th time, 25 bps increase to 3.35%. https://t.co/CBsEXwW5FY" / Twitter 'God is neither male nor female': Church of England is considering gender-neutral terms | UK News | Sky News PM Modi should nationalise all assets of Adani Group and then auction it for sale: Subramanian Swamy | India News - Times of India (indiatimes.com) Gautam Adani’s woes were in banks' plain sight | Reuters >>> Barclays, StanChart, Deutsche Bank and others helped Gautam Adani supersize his empire. A $110 bln share rout exposes their willingness to take a narrow view of risk on lucrative relationships. The questions will get louder Germany, Denmark, Netherlands pledge Leopard 1 tanks to Ukraine as it braces for new Russian assault to mark war's one-year anniversary - MarketWatch What a terrible terrible earthquake Turkey earthquake: Rescuers gave little boy water from a bottle cap - BBC News Turkey and Syria earthquake: death toll rises to 8,700 as hundreds of thousands left homeless by disaster – latest updates (theguardian.com) Maersk, a global barometer for trade, posts record 2022 earnings but warns of a tough year ahead (msn.com) NICE - welcome news to start the day! Executive Board of Hapag-Lloyd AG resolves to propose a dividend distribution of EUR 63 per share to the Annual General Meeting 2023 (yahoo.com) Va. poised to ban foreign adversaries from buying farmland (thehill.com) Good catch ! New Zealand police find 3.2 tonnes of cocaine floating in the Pacific Ocean | Evening Standard GBPCHF - if it is going to hold it will ahve to be from around here!

"After the shockingly strong NFP report, our economists added a 25bp hike to their expectations and moved the expected terminal rate to 5.0-5.25%" --JPM, same at MS : Friday's jobs report caused Ellen Zentner's team at Morgan Stanley "to change our baseline forecast from a pause to a 25bp hike at the March FOMC." It also boosted the chance of bigger hikes ahead "& the possibility that following a Fed pause the next move will be up, not down" Bostic says strong jobs report may spur Fed to raise interest rates even higher RBA raises interest rates as expected, says more hikes in store, P hilippine annual inflation blew past expectations in January to reach a fresh 14-year high on surging food prices, raising the chance of the central bank delivering a larger interest rate hike to tame prices when it meets this month & Japan reports biggest jump in nominal wages in more than a quarter century! will they really keep on with YCC, BoJ ? >> sticky inflation in Asia too >>> Japan's govt to present nominees for next #BOJ governor and two deputy governors to parliament next week Russia sold 3.63 tons of GOLD from wealth fund in January Switzerland hasn't had landfills since 2000 50% of their municipal waste is recycled, and 50% is incinerated to produce electricity The world’s biggest miners spent years calling for consolidation in a fragmented industry. Newmont’s $17 billion Newcrest Mining offer suggests it’s finally starting to happen on a significant scale The Rothschilds look to take their French investment bank private in a $4 billion deal just a few months after a family head died Chinese households' bank deposits surged by ¥18 tln last year , ¥8 tln more than 2021 and about ¥36K per family. Money was saved from less consumption, fewer home purchases, and less financial investments/Thread Markets : Macro Data remains volatile , China fast reopening, U.S recession, no recession, soft, hard, no landing, Russia/UKR impact, inflation remains sticky across world Equity markets have had a massive rally last 4months, further repricing of rates might well tip 'duration' again sooner or later USD mixed after Friday outside day, AUD a little higher on RBA, USDJPY a little softer (all about BoJ nominees next week), GBP remains under pressure UST 2y yields up about 35-40bps in 2 trading days post NFP and ISM - fierce repricing Plenty of ECB speakers today and Powell later on Quarterly Outlook Q1 2023 - The models are broken | Saxo Group (home.saxo) well worth going through it, great insight from Steen at Saxo >> Summary: Models are used everywhere in the financial world. But what do you do when the models you use don't work anymore? That's what this Quarterly Outlook is all about RBA raises interest rates as expected, says more hikes in store By Investing.com Bostic says strong jobs report may spur Fed to raise interest rates even higher (msn.com) Japan's December real wages post first rise in 9 months on 26-year-high nominal growth - CNA (channelnewsasia.com) Philippine Inflation Beats Expectations, Lifts Chance Of Bigger Rate Hike (ibtimes.com) "Forward EPS growth has just gone negative. This has only previously happened 4 times over the past 23 yrs. In each prior instance (2001, '08, '15, '20), equities have faced significant price downside associated w/the shift from positive to negative earnings growth:" MS's Wilson Cyclicals riskier than growth stocks: Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson (cnbc.com) Russia Racks Up $25 Billion Budget Gap as Oil Export Price Cap Hits Hard - Bloomberg How Russia Is Surviving the Tightening Grip on Its Oil Revenue - The New York Times (nytimes.com) Gemini to contribute $100 million to Genesis bankruptcy recovery plan (cnbc.com) The Rothschilds look to take their French investment bank private in a $4 billion deal just a few months after a family head died (yahoo.com) Gene Ma on Twitter: "Chinese households' bank deposits surged by ¥18 tln last year, ¥8 tln more than 2021 and about ¥36K per family. Money was saved from less consumption, fewer home purchases, and less financial investments. https://t.co/pZRFQVQsg6" / Twitter Javier Blas on Twitter: "The thing with oil and gas is that they make a lot of money. Even BP CEO Bernard Looney has realized. And hence, quite a turn-around in strategy. $BP puts some fine words about renewables. But this is a company that has gone from "Beyond Petroleum" to "Back to Petroleum". https://t.co/QV02PhQ2Wo" / Twitter and BP profits more than double as energy prices surge - live updates (telegraph.co.uk) Absolute disaster in Turkey's deadly 7.8 magnitude earthquake was so strong that its energy could power New York City for more than 4 days, seismologist says (yahoo.com) India's PM Modi Comes Under India Opposition Fire Over Adani Links - Bloomberg have a great day TeamPVM

Mr Market came closer to FED view, after very firm ISM and payrolls on Friday, namely that the very strong employment picture will keep economy and inflation firm for longer...looked like a turn on the $$ on Friday JPY - Japan sounds out BOJ deputy Amamiya for central bank governor. Final discussion underway for nomination of Kuroda's successor, he is someone who believes strongly in YCC, Amamiya is the architect of most of the BOJ’s policies under Kuroda (articles and news not all that clear btw, stay tuned)>>> lifted USDJPY further over week-end, this after very strong U.S job data and ISM on Friday (no recession...), USD, GOLD, all corrected pretty sharply, risk of even changing recent trend altogether, NFP increased the possibility of a soft-landing scenario where the economy avoids a severe recession while inflation/wage growth should continue to moderate (higher for longer..) "Goldman Sachs reports that Thursday saw the single heaviest day of short-covering activity by hedge-fund clients in a decade.", FOMO still alive last week! The more than $110bn wipeout of billionaire Gautam Adani’s companies follows other spectacular stock collapses set off by short sellers, like Enron and Wirecard, Bloomberg reports The autumn bull was about chasing Dow stuff while NASDAQ did nothing . The 2023 bull is all about chasing those old laggards, while the Dow is doing nothing. This creates more and more P/L pain as big capital isn't capturing these shifts quickly enough... In the context of all the debate, and different views, on the state of the US economy... ...it is remarkable how stable rate pricing by end-2023 has been. (just suck in 4.50-5.00% range for months now) / Thread Spy balloon fallout blows US-China diplomacy further off course. Beijing is likely to be just starting a long howl at Washington for downing with fighter jets what China says was a research ‘airship’ Hackers Target Thousands of Computers; Italy Calls Meeting Renault and Nissan sign a deal aimed at easing longstanding tensions between the two companies Competition to make raw materials for EV batteries is taking a potentially dangerous turn amid softening markets for critical commodities such as lithium and nickel Markets : VIX and SPX higher >>> so players buying underlying but buying protection too The S&P GSCI index, one of the most widely used & comprehensive commodity price indices, is back down to where it was in early December before all the China reopening chatter started... EURUSD , below 21dma around 1.0830 , previously mentioned ; key medium-term support & trend line 1.0750 (chart), EURO net longs futures positions from AM's and leverage names is huge (pls ask for more charts if you wish to) USDJPY - up and away - if you can handle (med to long-term position) 128JPY, stay long USDJPY now, add 135+ (chart) 2y UST yields jumped 25bps on Friday, ''repricing higher for longer'' - for duration, the end of 2023 and 2024 matters most Japan sounds out BOJ deputy Amamiya for central bank governor - Nikkei Asia China’s Weather Service Head Relieved of Duty Amid Tensions (thedailybeast.com) US non-farm payrolls jump by 517,000 in January - Sharecast.com Mass layoffs at U.S. tech giants help startups secure IT talent - Nikkei Asia (9) New Hampshire GOP governor calls Biden's balloon strategy 'too little too late' (cnn.com) RENAULT GROUP: Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance open a new chapter for their partnership (yahoo.com) EV battery material suppliers brace for gluts as competition heats up - Nikkei Asia Jens Nordvig 🇩🇰🇺🇸🇺🇦 on Twitter: "In the context of all the debate, and different views, on the state of the US economy... ...it is remarkable how stable rate pricing by end-2023 has been. (just suck in 4.50-5.00% range for months now) https://t.co/Ag9MbBmBKL" / Twitter Ukrainian refugees take canton to court over low benefits - SWI swissinfo.ch Iran supreme leader issues conditional 'amnesty' for protesters (msn.com) Thatcherites join rebellion against Rishi Sunak’s promise to slash EU red tape (telegraph.co.uk) Turkey earthquake: More than 500 dead as 7.8-magnitude earthquake hits country's south | CNN Adani rout deepens despite Indian efforts to defend conglomerate (cnbc.com) Cyber Security Hacking News: Italy Says Systems Attacked - Bloomberg EURUSD 1.0750 USDJPY - up and away - if you can handle (med to long-term position) 128JPY, stay long USDJPY now, add 135+

Powell : "it would be... very premature to declare victory" on inflation but "the disinflationary process has started" and "It’s very difficult to manage the risk of doing too little and finding out in six or 12 months that we actually were close but didn’t get the job done. If we feel like we’ve gone too far . . . inflation is coming down faster than we expect, then we have tools that would work on that" >> so he kind of claimed victory! mentioning disinflation a few times too, he aligned words and actions..pretty straight talking, market got caught with its universal hawkish expectations (and thus short rates and risk), all flipped during presser with Pow's constructive chatter Powell put the breaks on, so the only question is whether Christine 'says' a similar message after the 50bps hike, same for BoE where most think 50bps, though a 25bps hike IMHO does not look too far fetched.. (probably too early for any shift there at mom from ECB, maybe within 2months though..) The European Central Bank is all but certain to raise interest rates again and pencil in more hikes for the next few months, with the only open question being how big these will be U.S. Jan. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change: 106K, [Est. 178K, Prev. 235K, weaker, came out ahead of FOMC yesterday and set the tone... Germans Buy record amount of Gold! Central Bank buying 2nd highest level in history Adani stock losses hit $100bn after company calls off share sale, this is going to cost a few banks holding collateral in the group...Citigroup’s wealth arm stops accepting Adani securities as collateral for margin loans, joining Credit Suisse in stepping up scrutiny of the group... Mark Zuckerberg says Meta is making this the ‘year of efficiency’ Hong Kong will give away 50,0000 free airline tickets to tourists around the world, welcoming them to travel to Hong Kong, chief executive of the HKSAR John Lee announced on Thursday Goldman Sachs reiterates its forecast for Brent to hit $105 per barrel by the fourth quarter, saying oil will benefit as colder weather spurs demand BoJ Deputy Gov Wakatabe: need to be cautious about another YCC Band Widening Markets : Mr Market got caught short UST's and risk going into FOMC, Powell straight talking, not more hawkish than many were looking for, given positioning, and here we are - early days - META helped last night (up nearly 20%..), AMZN and APPL next amongst others >>> let' see now IF following days validate the market reaction from the event yesterday (and probably today too) from a macro point of view..broadly speaking nothing from Powell yesterday that changes the mood since #peakinflation #peakusd #peak worries of last Sep/Oct..and momentum from the start in Jan >>> softer USD, risk does ok, GOLD higher, duration joins in on lower yields USD weaker, GOLD higher, Copper softer (weaker growth signals ahead) Equity markets rallied, DOW flat, with 10's rally in 10y bonds, duration got a boost, QQQ shorts mainly squeezed, new longs established on break-up. QQQ off to the races/break up on techs, Mr Market was short as rates got smashed in Jan.. . no wonder reaction, irrelevant of anyone's view on the day.. #duration Crude near lows - worth building a few friendly longs from here GOLD could well be on its way to retest March 2022 highs NatGas prices are all the way back down to where we were in early 2021, US NatGas down 40pct or so in Jan ! ECB to raise rates again — but the real focus is on what Lagarde says – POLITICO Powell didn't sound as preoccupied as some commentators have been about recent easing as measured by certain FCI "Financial conditions didn’t really change much from the December meeting to now. They mostly went sideways or up and down, but came out in roughly the same place." Nick Timiraos on Twitter: "Daleep Singh: “Markets rallied fiercely despite the hawkish message because investors know the Fed isn’t omniscient nor is it dogmatic. Economic conditions are in charge when the Fed is in data-dependent mode.” https://t.co/vfjPjO1Diu" / Twitter >>> Arguably, his big opportunity came early in the Q&A, when he was asked if he was worried that financial conditions had eased. This appeared to be a straightforward opportunity for him to say “yes” and browbeat the market, if he wanted to, he didn't Jeffrey Gundlach on Twitter: "Here is the yield change in the UST market over the past 3 months: Two Year: Down 54 bp Five Year: Down 83 bp Ten Year: Down. 71 bp Thirty Year: Down 59 bp Fed Funds: Up 75 bp Message seems clear." / Twitter BOJ's Wakatabe: No change to ultra-easy policy commitment (msn.com) Economists detect dovish undertones from ‘more optimistic’ Jay Powell | Financial Times (ft.com) Germans Buy Record Amount Of Gold! Central Bank Buying 2nd Highest Level In History! | King World News George Monbiot RIPS APART Rishi Sunak's First 100 Days (doubledown.news) Mark Zuckerberg says Meta is making this the ‘year of efficiency’ (msn.com) Indian Tycoon Gautam Adani Pulls $2.5B Share Sale in Flagship Company (businessinsider.com) Strikes, seatbelts and sleaze: Rishi Sunak’s first 100 days as PM – podcast | News | The Guardian Mattia Nelles on Twitter: "The brilliant @berdynskykh_k summarizes the mood of town today: Can we hold the EU-Ukraine summit every week?) Because this parade of searches is a pleasure to watch.) What is she referring to? A small summary of today, a day of plenty of searches, arrests and dismissals🤡 /1" / Twitter CNBC International on Twitter: "Oil market looks like it is in 'pretty good shape,' says Paul Sankey of Sankey Research. https://t.co/WeaxhG6Stg" / Twitter have a great end to the week Steph & Team

Tesla EVs, even mildly damaged, are being written off by Insurance Companies - Insurers are increasingly concluding that a broken Tesla is too expensive to fix ECB: Rising rates are making a substantial dent on loan demand -Loan demand to drop further in Q1 with "strong net decline" seen for loans to households - BLS There was to be a historical energy crisis in 2022, then we had this : Eurozone’s Economy Outpaced China and U.S. in 2022 ...The currency-area grew at a faster clip than its global peers, reversing traditional positions/WSJ Riksbank: High inflation and rising rates are testing the resilience of the Swedish financial system. English page not visible Norway's sovereign wealth fund lost $164bn last year, citing volatile markets ECB balance-sheet size lower again/deleveraging continues , lower by another €65bn in the past week to €7,900bn...Total assets stills equate to 60% of Eurozone GDP UK and EU set for Northern Ireland Brexit deal . Breakthroughs on customs and court disputes Adani rout erases $79bn in mkt cap from all 10 stocks tied to the billionaire’s Adani Group – a third of group value as completion of a key share sale failed to lessen concerns about Hindenburg Research’s fraud allegations EZ inflation slowed to 8.5% YoY in Jan , more than expected, suggesting a more heated debate to come at ECB meeting over how much more interest rates must still rise as Core CPI - a gauge of underlying inflation that excludes volatile items - held at ATH of 5.2%. (BBG) Markets : MOVE index (bond vols), remember peak worries, peak inflation in early October ? essentially the index has moved from 160 to 100 - see chart below - stunning sell-off, financials conditions improved, USD sold-off and risk rallied, duration recovered hard with inversion of the curve...all the same trade USDollar stays soft, not softer, all about Powell, if as expected, Mr Market will quickly try to push lower again BONDS..various part of the curve at play..which will influence duration/QQQ one way or another Equity markets, well within recent defined ranges, market wants to test higher on a 'soft' Powell >>> SPX500 3850 vs 4150 will cover it for now Crude slightly softer, recent inflation data, average earnings and so on a little softer, but beware it is 'softer than excessively high levels in last 6months, it is not exactly much lower..yet anyway, and employment remains strong >>> so a bit of patience IMHO might be required for now, hence Powell likely to avoid to be too dovish, if at all, lets see how goes PowerPoint Presentation (podbean.com) few nice charts there, as per usual Macro Insights: Central banks on the agenda – Fed, ECB and Bank of England | Saxo Markets SG (home.saxo) Jerome Powell likely to stress Fed's inflation fight far from over - Washington Times MOVE Index Charts and Quotes — TradingView hell of a move last 3months, after 'peak worries' in October.. though it could continue relative to 2021 levels... decision time soon! Tesla EVs, Even Mildly Damaged, Being Written Off by Insurers (caranddriver.com) Meccanica on Twitter: "I just want to know who's responsible for designing CCS. What engineer developed this and thought this was a good idea? 💡 https://t.co/hYhbavUXbx" / Twitter Eurozone mortgage demand falls at record pace | Financial Times (ft.com) No surprise, like everywhere else.. Jacob Silverman on Twitter: "Bankrupt Alameda demands repayment of $445.8 million in loans made to bankrupt Voyager, which previously loaned to Alameda, but was repaid after going bankrupt. Everyone owes everyone and no one has real money. https://t.co/sWSy58B4dL https://t.co/91cxsql2pr" / Twitter UK and EU 'reach customs deal that could end Northern Ireland logjam' - Belfast Live and... Strikes UK today: Train drivers, royal mail and teachers join biggest walkout in decade | The Independent Heroin is now legal in Vancouver – and addicts are celebrating (telegraph.co.uk) really..?