SVB crisis sends jitters through start-up world UK : HS2 construction to be delayed in bid to cut costs - other countries might have to take similar moves too (slow things down, good for softer inflation!) The US has "successfully blocked or frozen more than $58 billion worth of sanctioned Russians’ assets": US Dept of Treasury 0DTE options : An explosion in trading in a type of equity derivative security in recent months has prompted Wall Street players and a major clearing house to examine the potential risks it poses , according to two sources familiar with the matter >>> best have a little look at it before there is a down day of 10% ( or up) - leverage kills eventually.. FT - 'Cathie Wood's Ark Investment Management has earned more than $300mn in fees on its flagship exchange traded fund since its inception nine years ago, while wiping out almost $10bn of investors' cash in the same period.' China’s Xi Wins Unanimous Votes For Third Term As President.. Credit Suisse postponed publication of its annual report after a last-minute call from the SEC about its earlier financial statements. It is not currently clear when last year's report will be released instead Macron and Sunak seek to overcome years of Franco-British feuding Mexico Inflation Undershoots Forecast s, Giving Banxico Space (better news,like Australia, Canada and China this week..) Markets : SPX is now below both the 50 and the 200 day moving average , as well as trading below the short term trend line that has been in place since October lows. A close below the 3950 level and this could get much more dynamic to the downside, have a look at where we are in the bank ETF KBW below - long-term perspective ( I would add that is is very much a stock picking market, same on way down, some banks more at risk, many others, that are perfectly fine..) USDollar not really higher on this risk-off move last few days (mind..it's not lower either..all about NFP next, after slightly weaker/higher Claims yesterday , BoJ unch, all about the new guys in Q2 2023 to possibly change YCC etc.. HIGHER rates kills leverage eventually, this is where risk and issue pops up, long duration assets, ARKK and the likes, some banks like SVB ( not all banks ), housing (some REIT's, commercial mainly, where borrowing and leverage is used, not all REIT's..), and so on IF, this becomes a CREDIT risk (as it would eventually..with curve inversion, overtightening etc), then CHF, JPY, GOLD...will do well, and so will bonds, particularly with the HUGE short in TY out there, biggest short since 2018.. SVB crisis sends jitters through startup world: Here's what we know | Business Standard News (business-standard.com) Alf on Twitter: "Why this sudden meltdown in bank stocks? A couple of interesting theories and charts are doing the rounds, so let's have a look under the hood. A thread. 1/" / Twitter Good thread Bill Ackman on Twitter: "The failure of @SVB_Financial could destroy an important long-term driver of the economy as VC-backed companies rely on SVB for loans and holding their operating cash. If private capital can’t provide a solution, a highly dilutive gov’t preferred bailout should be considered." / Twitter it matters clearly Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund Tells Companies to Pull Money From SVB - Bloomberg Mexico Inflation Undershoots Forecasts, Giving Banxico Space (yahoo.com) Better news too there, like Canada, Australia, China, all softer inflation data lately, the battle is not won yet, but we are getting there! Bank of Japan keeps low rates as Kuroda sticks to script at swan song meeting (msn.com) The last BIG dovish Central Banker has now retired Macron and Sunak seek to overcome years of Franco-British feuding (thelocal.fr) Boris Johnson criticised for making millions while rarely appearing in Commons | Boris Johnson | The Guardian good for him, as we always said, he only ever cared about himself, no-one else, not other MP's, not folks, not the party, not the country, just himself HS2 construction to be delayed in bid to cut costs - BBC News Economy ‘bounces back’ in another signal a recession is off table (cityam.com) >>> The post-Brexit agreement between the UK and the EU on Northern Ireland is a "really good deal overall," according to the Irish finance minister Holger Zschaepitz on Twitter: "#QT is much slower than #QE. Central banks reduce total assets much more slowly than they have accumulated them. https://t.co/93s9liawBi" / Twitter Dubai's record property demand is creating a nightmare for some residents (cnbc.com) Why poverty might be far worse in the U.S. than it's reported (cnbc.com) pretty terrible! Biden's budget complicates coming debt fight: expert (yahoo.com) The West must not give up on Georgia again (emerging-europe.com) Where is Georgia and is it a Nato member? | The Independent Vinyl Record Sales Surpassed CDs for First Time in 35 Years (businessinsider.com) That's a come back ! I might dig my old ones out now.. KWB banks-financial ETF - This is where we are long-term SVB trading down to around 80 in overnight trade

Kuroda's last meeting at BoJ tomorrow - no change expected this time round, but you never know with. Changes to YCC more likely in April-June, when Fed will peak, which 'should' support softer USDJPY going into Q2 “There’s a reasonable chance that the Fed will have to bring the Fed Funds rate to 6% & then keep it there for an extended period to slow the economy & get inflation down to near 2%:” BlackRock's Rieder. ..(we are nearly there already...?, Fed Beige Book survey: US businesses see moderation in inflation ahead, JOLTS : The number of US job openings fell to 10.8mln in Jan, down from 11.2 in Dec but exceeding consensus estimates of 10.5mln, meaning labor market is still tighter than anticipated (.. but..with construction openings down 240k , a 49% decline m/m-leading? China continues to experience domestic disinflation . In February CPI prices rose 1.0% y-o-y (versus 2.1% in January), while actually declining 0.5% m-o-m (versus rising 0.8% in January). PPI prices declined 1.4% y-o-y, their fifth decline in a row, maybe a good sign for things to come in US and Europe BoC : For the first time in about a year, the Bank of Canada kept its main interest rate unchanged at a scheduled policy decision, arguing economic data point to inflation sharply decelerating this year toward its 2% targe Biden to propose 5.2% Federal pay increase J ohnson Redbook same-store sales have hit the lowest growth rate in 2 years .This proxy for physical retail activity confirms other data suggesting recent consumer weakness " A French company has won the contract for post-Brexit border checks , in a blow to hopes that domestic businesses would be prioritised in public procurement." The Brexit pennies dropped, as the gentle rain from heaven upon the journalists beneath " US 10-yr yields are consistent with the prevailing narrative of a gently does it, soft-landing scenario . As a result, the probability of a hard landing is perhaps being under-estimated in our view...We have not changed our view that bond yields will be lower by year end:" HSBC BMO: "Our take is that Powell was simply hedging against the potential that another massive upside surprise in NFP and/or CPI forces the Fed’s hand to move 50 bp as it continues the credibility chase." SNB posts biggest loss in its 115-year history (every CB is in a similar position...) ECB balance sheet drops by another €8.6bn to €7,830.8bn in the past week, the lowest level since Jun2021 as QT continues. Total assets now equal to 59% of Eurozone's GDP vs Fed's 32%, SNB's 113% and BoJ's 132%. Turkey's six-party opposition coalition, Nation Alliance, has chosen Kemal Kilicdaroglu as its joint presidential candidate . He will seek to unseat President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the upcoming presidential and parliamentary election Taiwan suspects Chinese ships cut islands’ internet cables . Residents of Taiwan's outlying islands near the Chinese coast have been without the internet for the past month ECB officials have rightly pointed to the role that fiscal policy plays in inflation, and encouraged governments to exercise restraint. The Fed should at least acknowledge this reality . It plays an essential role to achieving their mandate European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde said Wednesday she would do whatever it takes to restore price stability in the face of high inflation Credit Suisse Group AG delayed the publication of its annual report and compensation details for 2022 after US regulators raised last-minute technical queries on previous statements Georgia : For days, thousands of protesters have taken to the streets in Tbilisi in anger as a Russian-style law began its passage through parliament Markets : NFP tomorrow, U.S CPI next week, bottom line the data is and will remain volatile, markets will continue to gyrate, this week the 50bps in March probability moved/got priced to 80%, was about 30pct probability on Monday.. SPX is trading at the same levels we traded at in May last year. Some bigger ups and downs, but we are still lacking the new bigger trend . During this period the index has moved closer and closer towards a big dynamic like formation. We are right at the 200 day and the 100 day is coming in slightly lower. We are getting closer to a break out move... MS found that “the gap between reported earnings and cash flow for the S&P 1500 is at its widest in 25 years” , mainly due to high working capital spend (Thread) USDollar firmed up this week on Powell, next short-term direction will come from BoJ and NFP tomorrow, last NFP was a huge surprise ( ADP was much lower vs actual NFP, will we reverse some now ?) Crude stable to lower, Copper similar ECB chief vows to do 'whatever it takes' to tame inflation - Digital Journal Holger Zschaepitz on Twitter: "#ECB balance sheet drops by another €8.6bn to €7,830.8bn in the past week, the lowest level since Jun2021 as QT continues. Total assets now equal to 59% of Eurozone's GDP vs Fed's 32%, SNB's 113% and BoJ's 132%. https://t.co/fFAZEKbAiR" / Twitter The Fed - Beige Book - March 8, 2023 (federalreserve.gov) Fed Beige Book survey: US businesses see moderation in inflation ahead (yahoo.com) SNB posts biggest loss in its 115-year history - The Swiss Times Not a record to be proud of ! strewth ! At the beginning of 2022, SNB had CHF204.2 billion in equity. By the end of the year, the bank’s equity had shrunk to CHF65.8 billion. For reference, SNB posted a profit of CHF26 billion in 2021 Swiss president appears sceptical about Leopard tank sale - SWI swissinfo.ch Wasteland Capital on Twitter: "MS found that “the gap between reported earnings and cash flow for the S&P 1500 is at its widest in 25 years”, mainly due to high working capital spend. Current earnings are overestimating (not underestimating, as many believe) how much cash companies are actually generating. https://t.co/NanSxh1I9r" / Twitter Michael Pettis on Twitter: "1/4 China continues to experience domestic disinflation. In February CPI prices rose 1.0% y-o-y (versus 2.1% in January), while actually declining 0.5% m-o-m (versus rising 0.8% in January). PPI prices declined 1.4% y-o-y, their fifth decline in a row. https://t.co/MTVKIcqCBu" / Twitter Ukraine war live updates: Latest news on Russia and the war in Ukraine (cnbc.com) Turkish opposition finally unites against Erdogan ahead of May presidential elections (lemonde.fr) Taiwan suspects Chinese ships cut islands’ internet cables - ABC News (go.com) Trial of Gazprombank managers underway in Switzerland - SWI swissinfo.ch Georgians protest on streets and in parliament over 'Russia-style' bill - BBC News Silvergate Collapse Dragging Down Bitcoin Volume (coindesk.com) Long been over, it is now Silvergate short seller says he’s betting against Signature: ‘Binance is next’ – DL News Georgia to drop 'foreign agents' law after protests (msn.com) Nomura cuts entertainment budget as rising costs hurt profit (afr.com) Signs that monetary tightening working.. BTP's 10year - yields have gone form 93bp in early 2022 to 4.50% now

French nationwide strike to extend as pension reform fight intensifies Powell : “The latest economic data have come in stronger than expected, which suggests that the ultimate level of interest rates is likely to be higher than previously anticipated", the historical record cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy. We will stay the course until the job is done.", last speech Powell mentioned 'disinflation' a few times... changing his mind like a headless chicken.. >>> overall, we still think we could see approx. 6 % Fed peak rate, sticky inflation, services inflation, more resilient inflation etc, but Fed will keep to 25bps (extending for longer into July perhaps..)... markets putting a 50/50 probability of 50bps in March (up from zero in Feb and 30% yesterday morning) >>> The speed and severity of this Fed tightening over the last year is the boldest most of us have seen in our 30-40y+ careers U.S : Cox Automotive on Tuesday reported wholesale used vehicle prices increased 4.3% in February from January — marking the largest increase between the two months since 2009 RBA : The Reserve Bank of Australia is “closer” to pausing its record series of interest rate rises, its governor, Philip Lowe >>> AUD broken down on charts 0DTE options could turn 5% intraday market decline into 25% rout -JPMorgan Chinese mutual funds suffer biggest net outflow in 31 months. Market split on financial measures announced at National People's Congress. China’s energy transition sees ‘staggering’ progress on renewables — and a coal power boom The UK’s RMT union has called off a strike next week against Network Rail after receiving a new pay offer Markets : U.S : Terminal up about 18bps yesterday, to about 5.6%, inflation moving from transitory/passing soon to Structural (more resilient) >>> higher for longer, inversion deepest since 1981, all sorts of record broken, BoJ event and NFP next SPX500 chart below, no drama for now, more weakness overnight in HSI Techs, long duration type names still more likely to suffer/struggle in months ahead Crude Oil struggling again, the likes of XAG broken down technically (too much weight from real yields), key level XAUUSD around here $1800 USD firmer again, CABLE broken down, USDJPY continues in the absence of BoJ action (more likely in April-Mai), though clearly meeting starting tomorrow could lead to a surprise! HYG, JNK yield spread look too low Jerome Powell Says Fed Is Prepared to Speed Up Interest-Rate Rises - WSJ Bank of Japan (BoJ) preview: what to expect | IG SG Lee is always a bull, but here is the other side CNBCOvertime on Twitter: "Despite today's action @Fundstrat's Tom Lee remains bullish "The reason we're constructive has a lot to do with leading indicators showing us that #inflation could be a lot softer..." https://t.co/BB5In8Z80y" / Twitter And : Every time the Philly fed manufacturing index dipped below -25, a recession took hold of the economy We’re now at -24.3... overall there are 'signs' that we could be near turning point - but we won't know for a few months "The question Fed Chair Powell needs to be asked is “what do you think you are doing?”. Powell has yet to explain how raising rates will tackle profit-led inflation. Pursuing higher unemployment seems an ineffective response." - UBS Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 on Twitter: "🇺🇸 High Frequency Data point to weakness in the U.S. employment market. *They show that job openings are weaker than JOLTS suggests. *Charts from @MacroAlf and @zerohedge https://t.co/A1ZqfeuRpk" / Twitter >>> SOFT NFP on Friday ? would force unwind a few things from yesterday... Inflation and Recent Economic Data | Speeches | RBA Ed Bradford on Twitter: "Even including the crazy early '80s Volcker money supply targeting regime, this is next level. Fed is crazy jacking up interest rates with a huge balance sheet. Curve has no choice but invert and flatten. The reversal when it happens will be sudden and non-stop https://t.co/IECHxY5JQY" / Twitter long-end eventually should/will move sharply! Used vehicle prices rising at an unseasonably strong rate (cnbc.com) Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth on Twitter: "Powell just finished, and here is the updated probability that the Fed will hike 50 next week. https://t.co/TYCv9t5PXm" / Twitter BOJ's move to curb bond short-selling is working, with side effects - Nikkei Asia - more manipulation from BoJ '''it's less profitable for short-sellers'' 0DTE options could turn 5% intraday market decline into 25% rout -JPMorgan (yahoo.com) This may sound crazy, far-fetched and to be ignored. It is not possible to ignore, given their size in daily trading these days GammaLab on Twitter: "Happy that this 0DTE tweet had 50K views, but feelings are very mixed about it. I love micro very much, don't get me wrong, but why do people care so much about occult market structure issues, when macro is magnitudes more fragile? We are dancing on a volcano and '0DTE' could…" / Twitter Energy: China's renewables progress comes alongside a coal power boom (cnbc.com) Berkshire Hathaway resumes Occidental purchases, stake reaches 22.2% (msn.com) Santander's Ana Botin: Rotating roles will help women get to the top (cnbc.com) Mass rallies and strikes in France over Macron's pension reform (yahoo.com) Peter Stefanovic on Twitter: "The elephant in the room the Government doesn’t want to mention is that the skyrocketing rise in small boat crossings is in large part a consequence of the Brexit deal championed by both the Prime Minister & the Home Secretary & now they plan to use it to trample on human rights https://t.co/RJuBNze9Y1" / Twitter Russia's Advancement Past Bakhmut Could Come at a High Price: ISW (newsweek.com) SPX500 - still looks ok for the bulls... it won't on a close below 3940 area

Markets did not like the rise in the ISM manufacturing prices paid (51.3 vs 44.5) and took the 2y UST yields to 5.25pct >>> margins being squeezed, clear risk to earnings lower >>> UST 2year hit 4.92%, SPX500 technically soft through support (Nasdaq, TSLA.. does bit more on rates) and talks of further U.S sanctions on China BoE's Andrew Bailey signals no pressing need for more UK interest rate rises....GBP reacted as you would expect... >>> RoW see inflation accelerating and Bailey talks dovish .. South Korea's Yoon says Japan has transformed into a partner The Bundesbank's annual report : In short, financial losses will increase substantially in coming years, but the provisions and other buffers look large enough for now. Nagel: "The burdens from rising rates are likely to increase considerably in the years to come", probably in excess of financial buffers, leading to an outright loss. Zeroing in on 0DTE: A Trading Tool to Try or a Trigger to Volmageddon? These options contracts that void just hours after they're traded have taken the investing world by storm China increasingly ambitious with 2023 growth target, may aim for up to 6% Fed's Kashkari responded to the question about the size of rate hikes, indicating he is open-minded to either 25bp or 50bp , which lends support to our call for a 50bp rate hike in March. However, he also said the March dots are much more important than how much the Fed will raise at the March meeting Bank of Mexico says inflation taking longer than expected to recede, same story everywhere Blackstone Blocked Investor Withdrawals From $71 Bn REIT In February Italy and Germany seek to postpone EU transition to electric cars The two countries want to block EU’s ban on new combustion-engine vehicles from 2035, potentially threatening the bloc's green goals ( this is a consequence of tight federal budgets, higher rates and higher costs overall.. .) Rare earth miners in China fall Thursday as Tesla said it plans to abandon use of the minerals in its next-generation “magnet” moto r due to the health and environmental risks that come with mining: BBG Billionaire investor David Einhorn says the Fed wants stock prices to go down and will hike rates higher than markets expect (he's all about 'financial conditions' that are still to favorable in his view) Markets : Peak US rates now seen near 5.5% - clearly a lot priced in the bond market by now (mortgage demand at 28y lows), 10y UST 4% etc Asian equities turned lower again, after initial +ve response to China PMI y'day, SPX500 3940 was big on way up, pushed markets to 4150, now rates and inflation higher, we breaking through key supports.. Risk is that Bonds have repriced, equity markets haven't done enough. DAX - chart below - only to put things in perspective - we have had a monster rally since Oct 2022 USD remains firm (but not higher), same same, CABLE at risk of breaking down again (dovish BoE), AUDUSD couldn't find much of a bid on positive China growth news (commodities lagging though). Watch out for BoJ (#USDJPY) have a funny feeling they are preparing the ground for some sort of a change, or the market will force them to.. Crude Oil inches up on China rebound, but global demand concerns weigh (commods lagging when everyone is bullish China reopening - that trade already done it seems) Few days skiing now, sorry folks, need a little bit of quality time with Fam. Back on Tuesday Ex-BOJ governor Shirakawa urges re-examination of monetary framework and inflation targets | The Japan Times The DUP must decide what Brexit they want - or Northern Ireland will be stuck (cityam.com) Seems we are heading for a positive development there, will believe it when I see it ! Eli Lilly Slashes Insulin Prices Up To 70% And Caps Out-Of-Pocket Costs At $35 (forbes.com) Good news Bundesbank taps its risk provisions for 2022 | Deutsche Bundesbank same goes for all CB's let's be honest...Bundesbank recorded a loss of €0.972bn in 2022 due to rising deposit rates for commercial banks & losses on FX securities. Losses were offset by capitalization of reserves . Bottom line: Buba recorded ZERO profit, 3rd year in row Buba has not transferred profit to federal budget. Thread : Frederik Ducrozet on Twitter: "🇩🇪 The @bundesbank's annual report is a harbinger of things to come. In short, financial losses will increase substantially in coming years, but the provisions and other buffers look large enough for now. https://t.co/lQNpyNxPo2" / Twitter China and Belarus express 'extreme interest' in Ukraine peace - BBC News let's hope so! China calls for faster push into 5G, IoT and supercomputing engines of growth in new grand digitalisation plan | South China Morning Post (scmp.com) Andrew Bailey signals no pressing need for more UK interest rate rises | Financial Times (ft.com) pretty ridiculous dovish stance, while everyone else in the globe is/has to be hawkish The EU has discovered that it needs Britain more than it thought (telegraph.co.uk) South Korea's Yoon says Japan has transformed into a partner - Nikkei Asia Zeroing in on 0DTE: A Trading Tool to Try or a Trigger to Volmageddon? - RealMoney (thestreet.com) News zum Russland-Ukraine-Krieg: Das geschah in der Nacht zu Donnerstag (2. März) - DER SPIEGEL Exclusive: US seeks allies' backing for possible China sanctions over Ukraine war | Reuters Blackstone blocked investor withdrawals from $71 bn REIT in February (vccircle.com) the kind of things investors don't want to see to often! Europe's 2035 combustion-engine ban opposed by Germany, Italy | Automotive News Europe (autonews.com) IEA: Global clean energy growth offset rise in CO2 emissions last year (cnbc.com) Taylor Wimpey profits up nearly 22 per cent at £827m as builder notes signs of housing market 'improvement' Taylor Wimpey sees shares slump as investors confidence in housing market reaches new low (cityam.com) Subprime car loan delinquencies are surging (axios.com) Low-income households are falling behind on car bills, sadly always the ones to suffer first Housing Crash: Mortgage Applications Fall to Lowest in Nearly 30 Years (businessinsider.com) hardly a surprise with rates up here! Rivian Is Alienating Its Most Important Customers at Critical Time (businessinsider.com) Rivian lost $5bnlast year, forecast to lose another 4bn this year..nuts Déforestation au supermarché: Des labels pour le bois «écologique» trompent le consommateur suisse | 24 heures ‘Joyful’ portrait of Picasso’s daughter Maya sells at auction for over £18m | The Independent DAX - only to put things in perspective - we have had a monster rally since Oct 2022 have a great day team pvm

Germany’s central bank will on Wednesday reveal how big a financial hole it faces from rising interest rates , which analysts warn will saddle it with mounting losses in the coming years and increase political scrutiny of its massive bond purchases Charlie Munger's 15mins video below Chipmakers receiving US federal funds barred from expanding in China for 10 years Corporate Stock Buybacks help keep market afloat. Repurchases among S&P 500 companies are projected to top $1 trillion this year US MNI Chicago PMI Feb: 43.6 (est 45.5; prev 44.3), Consumer Confidence 102.9, Exp. 108.5, Last 107.1 >>> both weaker (rates moves beginning to matter) . Elsewhere, Oz Q4 GDP came in at +0.5% (exp +0.8%), while China Caixin Manuf were stronger at 51.6 (exp 49.2), NBS Manufacturing PMI 52.6 from 50.1 and vs f/c 50.5, highest since April 2012. Switzerland February manufacturing PMI 48.9 vs 49.3 prior, Spanish S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Feb: 50.7 (exp 49.0; prev 48.4), Italy higher too "The world is full of foolish gamblers, and they will not do as well as the patient investor," Buffett said in Berkshire Hathaway's 2022 shareholder letter Tausende Übernachtungen: SAC-Hütten verbuchen Rekordjahr, record amount of folks went to stay in mountains 'huts' last year ( one of the best things to do! ) FT - After losing £1.5bn, Ocado remains as committed as ever to losing money . Always burning since the world’s been turning >>> cheap funding, cheap energy, cheap labour, these kind of bizz model made sense back then, they don't anymore ECB's Muller : Rate hikes are having an effect, but inflation is still too high -Expectations of rapid ECB rate cuts are wishful thinking ECB's Nagel: ECB may need big rates hikes beyond March , Steeper QT from July BOJ's Nakagawa: We're aiming for positive economic cycle accompanied by higher wages , Japan's biggest banks are raising pay for fresh graduates as competition and inflation heat up Markets : BUND 10y yields now nearer to 2.70%, after inflation data, 12years highs USD firmer overall, but beware a change of tune from BoJ in coming 2months (next meeting 9-10th march) 3months T-bills, starting 2022 they were yielding 4 bps, we are now near 5%, how long can the BoJ hold, is one of the biggest macro question from next few weeks..(months). Eq in China rallied strongly on stronger macro data overnight, Copper up as well, SPX500 hanging in there 3960/90 support area, beware higher yields and new momentum in March Stronger macro data is a positive development overall for folks (clearly), however, it is not for Fixed Income markets, selling off hard with ease on any signs of strong(er) macro data and/or inflation Losses from bond purchases put Bundesbank in political line of fire | Financial Times (ft.com) All CB's suffering from the same fate, will not only be BUBA, but Bundesbank is in pole position with its EURO 1 trn bond portfolio >>> Germany’s central bank will on Wednesday reveal how big a financial hole it faces from rising interest rates, which analysts warn will saddle it with mounting losses in the coming years and increase political scrutiny of its massive bond purchases >>> the ECB and others continued to do a lot of QE when yields were negative 2y ago..this huge mistake is going to hurt various folks, as it will get very tricky on fiscal side of things for government spending.. Patrick Zweifel on Twitter: "Super strong February PMIs in #China, activity components are at a record high in over 13 years https://t.co/D4HHswPjvH" / Twitter / chart China's PMI: Factory Activity Tops Decade High, Boosting Recovery - Bloomberg Charlie Munger deploying BOMBS about CHINA, TAIWAN & BITCOIN! - YouTube 15 minutes that are well worth listening, Charlie didn't mince his words :-) , you may agree or disagree with his views, but there you go...he is true to his words G20: Ukraine war casts shadow over India's ambitions - BBC News Corporate Stock Buybacks Help Keep Market Afloat - WSJ Chipmakers receiving US federal funds barred from expanding in China for 10 years – The Irish Times Amid stubborn inflation, 60% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck (cnbc.com) That's reality on the ground European Central Bank to hoist interest rates to record four per cent (cityam.com) A quick reminder of the logic of NI deal ... Peter Stefanovic on Twitter: "Sunak tells the people of Northern Ireland they will have a unique opportunity where they will get access to the EU Single Market & GB market “No one else in the world has this” he says - except the whole of the UK did until he helped take us out of it! https://t.co/NdUogDTqzq" / Twitter the last bit is priceless and for real.. The pilot was such a nice chap! Northern lights: EasyJet pilot turns plane around to show passengers spectacle | Science & Tech News | Sky News Warren Buffett's 10 Longest-Held Stocks in Berkshire Hathaway Portfolio (businessinsider.com) Russia says military drone attempted to strike gas facility near Moscow | Ukraine | The Guardian Ukraine war live updates: Latest news on Russia and the war in Ukraine (cnbc.com) Alpinismus im Hoch - Tausende Übernachtungen: SAC-Hütten verbuchen Rekordjahr - News - SRF After losing £1.5bn, Ocado remains as committed as ever to losing money | Financial Times After losing £1.5bn, Ocado remains as committed as ever to losing money. Always burning since the world’s been turning >>> cheap funding, cheap energy, cheap labour, these kind of bizz model made sense back then, they don't anymore, with inflation/funding/rates higher for longer The ‘Sandwich Generation’ Is Financially Taking Care Of Their Parents, Kids And Themselves (forbes.com) Inflation, inflation, inflation, it hurts everywhere - changes abound required (changes are not a bad thing btw, we all hate them, but..changes can be positive) $33 billion fintech giant Revolut reports first-ever annual profit (cnbc.com) Amazon to Let Employees Use Company Stock to Get Home Loans (businessinsider.com) Bola Tinubu: Nigerian ruling party candidate declared winner in disputed election (cnbc.com) Reuters on Twitter: "Horacio Llorens and Tom de Dorlodot have pulled off one of the most spectacular flights, becoming the first pilots to ever reach the famous K2 mountain by paraglider, and soaring its faces to 7,577 meters https://t.co/95tlsygs0u" / Twitter Whaooo! have a great day team PVM

Spanish and French inflation higher this morning , Spain Harmonized CPI 6.1% YoY in Feb vs +5.7% expected. France 7.2% ( accelerating, like US PCE on Friday )Harmonized CPI 6.1% YoY in Feb vs 7% expected, will keep pressure on ECB hawks, markets now pricing in a 4% peak rate in Q1 2024 .. The Brexit deal is just the beginning of the repair work.. UK assets have been unloved for years, they are under-owned, will help the heeling from here on. It seems Rishi is about to solve the impossible Rubik's cube of politics! and The Tory graph already saying : A sharp fall in energy prices and brighter economic outlook will hand Jeremy Hunt a £56bn boost in next month's Budget, a leading think tank has said, as campaigners demand tax cuts. The real moral hazard, beneficiaries of QE (ZIRP, NIRP, low rates) have been elected PM's and government's who have been able to hide behind every issue by promising more, can't do this anymore, back to the real world (which is a good thing for the many..) Fed's Jefferson : Raising the 2% inflation target risked undermining the Fed's credibility - I am committed (no choice then..) to lowering inflation to 2% Incoming BOJ deputy head brushes aside near-term tweak to easy policy After buying a record ¥20tn of JBGs last month, the BoJ now owns more than 100 per cent of all on-the-run 10-year Japanese government bonds. In fact it owns almost 140 per cent of the most recent issue. The lower house of Japan's parliament passed a record $839.3 billion budget for the next fiscal year that begins in April, a ruling party lawmaker said, a move that would further strain the industrial world's heaviest debt burden Hong Kong ends Covid mask mandate after 945 days to focus on economy China's Pandemic Savings Pool - The strength of China’s economic rebound largely hinges on whether families and companies are willing to spend their cash hoard / WSJ - Swiss watchdog finds Credit Suisse 'seriously breached' obligations in Greensill affair.. EU's Gentiloni: The economic outlook is less pessimistic than originally thought -EU is likely to avoid a severe recession Japan to promote gas, LNG, hydrogen investments during G7 presidency - METI Ukraine-Russia war latest: China 'very clearly' taken Russia's side in war, says US Fed says overvalued commercial real estate poses risk to financial system...and who created this bubble in the first place with all this QE last 10years? Markets: German 10y yields hit highest level since 2011 NASDAQ vs US 10 year (inverted) continues trading with the huge gap (let me know if you want the chart..). Equities began to care about the rates narrative last week (again), so don't expect massive equity bounces unless rates start moving lower, overnight, HSI giving more ground lower together with other Chinese eq markets. GBPCHF - I'm sure you will be able to make a better chart (see below)...but we should be on our way towards 1.25-1.30 (interest rates diff + UK-EU deal) - pick your preferred GBP pair Rates overall higher for longer, still extending hikes and Terminal rates higher across board really, lead this morning by Europe, many thought Dec inflation data was seasonal, looks like it wasn't j Stay defensive on long duration assets, in particular Morning Brew February 28 2023 | Saxo Bank (home.saxo) - ECB rate path up to 3.75% by Feb 2024.. Ukraine war live updates: Latest news on Russia and the war in Ukraine (cnbc.com) Ukraine-Russia war latest: China 'very clearly' taken Russia's side in war, says US (telegraph.co.uk) Covid-Era Savings Are Crucial to China’s Economic Recovery - WSJ Brexit deal latest news: Rishi Sunak heads to Northern Ireland to sell deal as Boris Johnson dangles threat | The Independent Biden: UK, EU trade agreement over Northern Ireland ‘essential step’ to maintaining Good Friday Agreement | The Hill ...and opens up much higher probability of US/UK trade deal Jeremy Hunt handed £56bn Budget boost (telegraph.co.uk) Northern lights dance in sky above Oxfordshire in rare sighting | News | Independent TV BoJ finally corners 10-year JGB market | Financial Times (ft.com) Incoming BOJ deputy head brushes aside near-term tweak to easy policy | Reuters Israeli PM's ultranationalist ally quits as deputy minister (msn.com) Credit Suisse slammed for ‘serious breaches’ in Greensill debacle - SWI swissinfo.ch never ending, don't blame the foot soldiers of the current and last few years, look above.. Ron DeSantis takes over Disney district after 'Don't Say Gay' row (telegraph.co.uk) Manchester United Stock Price Sinks on Report It's Worth Billions Less (businessinsider.com) never understood the footy business, if these clubs were managed like a proper business, many wouldn't be able to exist and be run the way they have been for ...years Supermarket inflation reaches record 17.1%; Ocado loss widens to £500m – business live (theguardian.com) Fed: Overvalued commercial real estate poses risk to financial system | Crain's New York Business (crainsnewyork.com) ‘We’ve come so far’: how one village rose from the ashes of a wildfire - Positive News GBPCHF - I'm sure you will be able to make a better chart...but we should be on our way towards 1.25-1.30 (interest rates diff + UK-EU deal)

UK and EU aim to seal N Ireland deal today, apparently... This week we focus on UK/EU Brexit deal, BoE's Bailey and U.S ISM manuf on Wed, and the usual RU/China/UKR/EU headlines U.S core PCE higher 4.7% YoY, with pretty high wage growth it should hardly be a surpris e...it's an ''acceleration higher'' though for markets (namely 0.6% MoM vs 0.35% expected) and they could stay pretty elevated the whole of 2023..which is good for the workers and not so great for high growth, high leverage type names FED Collins seemed to shift toward the hawkish side by saying that she anticipates "further rate increases to reach a sufficiently restrictive level," then "holding there for some, perhaps extended, time." “So in my view, at this point, with the labor market still strong, the costs of undershooting on policy or prematurely loosening policy still outweigh the costs of overshooting," said Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester More tightening will be required if fiscal cooperation is absent: Christine Lagarde Revolut set to secure UK banking licence within weeks after releasing late accounts Solar set to overtake other energy sources by 2027 . Cheaper installation costs and energy security concerns are driving expansion IMF urges Central Banks to ‘stay the course’ till prices tamed Markets : Copper looks to be breaking down (techs) BONDS are pricing in more inflation vol than equities >> MOVE index vs VIX >> bonds lead everything these days, as they should, so continue to follow BONDS on macro basis. Worth noting that the large ETF's like JNK, HYG, TLT, LQD and AGG are trading heavily on tech side of things/Saxo chart below SPX500 testing/holding that 3960/3990 support area , decent sell-off on Friday on PCE, but no real sign of panic/vols staying relatively well behave >>> having said all this, '' short-term momentum is ALL or mainly driven by 'daily option flows, 0DTE's'' , so the reality is, sentiment can swing petty swiftly, either way. DAX bouncing right back up, pretty easily too. USD higher (still) on PCE data, lead by USDJPY as BoJ apparently not bothered to move on YCC and JPY weakness, Ueda this morning 'balanced' ion his speech, eventually they will have to move, but not yet. GBP might/should see a positive reaction to 'the deal' finally BONDS sold off as you would expect, hikes extending, Terminal rate around 5.5% does not seem to worry equity markets too much Britain and EU in final talks to seal Brexit deal for Northern Ireland (cnbc.com) Rishi Sunak must not flinch from a vital fight with the Tory Brextremists | Andrew Rawnsley | The Guardian ECB’s Lagarde calls on governments to start dialing back energy-price support – POLITICO Ueda Says Benefits of BOJ Stimulus Outweigh Side Effects (yahoo.com) The Fed is gearing up for a longer-than-expected inflation fight (yahoo.com) Explainer: The rise of 0DTE stock options and how they could be a risk to markets (yahoo.com) >>> bottom line, it's like 'meme' stocks, it works both ways SaxoCIO on Twitter: "Bond market is sending a clear signal. Move index - volatility broken up again and biggest ETF's: AGG, JNK, HYG, IEF, LQG & TLT all looking heavy in charts The gap btw Nominal GDP & Real GDP keeps expanding & confusing market. High nominal growth will continue & rates will follow https://t.co/zEiMFq0GIa" / Twitter IMF Chief Georgieva Urged Central Banks to ‘Stay the Course’ on Inflation - Bloomberg China's NPC, Cobra Gold 2023, G-20 foreign ministers meeting - Nikkei Asia The week ahead in Asia Solar set to overtake other energy sources by 2027 | Financial Times (ft.com) printmgr file (berkshirehathaway.com) Berkshire Hathaway Letter: What You Can Learn From Warren Buffett’s Mistakes - Bloomberg George Magnus on Twitter: "This is an interesting theme that merits a bit of delving, as I shall do now. There are close similarities, several differences, same ending? 1/10 China’s economy is looking at a new wave of Japanification https://t.co/NC0ZRJKcZs" / Twitter >>> great insight, have a read >>> Japan offers a useful, if inexact, template for modern China. Both feature a similar development model, systemic bop surpluses, property boom and bust, and a growth to debt transition Pressure on copper prices unlikely to last as labour disputes kick in (thearmchairtrader.com) Revolut set to secure UK banking licence within weeks after releasing late accounts (msn.com) A Lab Leak in China Most Likely Origin of Covid Pandemic, Energy Department Says - WSJ Financial Times on Twitter: "Analysts forecast a smaller contraction in UK output than before because of falling energy prices and better than expected business and consumer sentiment https://t.co/Z04Eljbfik https://t.co/XxBVTgYZaY" / Twitter Have a great start to the week Team PVM

- UKR/RU one year on BoJ's Ueda : details of interview below, they won't rush into anything before their financial year-end at end of March. NO sense of a rush (JPY can weaken in short-term) But he added: " If the outlook for underlying prices continues to improve, I believe that we will have no choice but to review the yield curve control, or at least to review it in the direction of normalization."...so eventually.. in April/Mai policy may well change Energy : You see this across the piece with new technology these days. You can’t make batteries, solar panels or for that matter wind turbines without a lot of energy, article below from Ed Conway - well worth a read ! EZ inflation for Jan topped earlier estimat e. CPI rose 8.6% in Jan. Core CPI, which strips out volatile categories, was 5.3%, up from preliminary estimate of 5.2% and fresh ATH >>> Core gives ECB hawks more ammunition to stay the course and hike more ECB scraps dividend after rising interest rates wipe out profits. Eurozone central bank risks losses in the coming years as it unwinds quantitative easing policies Netflix cuts prices for subscribers in more than 30 countries Chinese drone manufacturer Xi'an Bingo Intelligent Aviation Technology has agreed to manufacture and test 100 kamikaze drones, before delivering them to the Russian military, der Speigel reports >>> China has called for a cease-fire between Ukraine and Russia, according to a proposal released by its foreign ministry Thursday evening Blinken says India, South Africa are on slow trajectory away from alignment with Russia Markets : MOVE index (bon vol very important in the current macro world), VIX >> we talked about it 1week ago or so, ''it's when it's quiet that you wan to put a few hedges on..''... they both moved up a little and it's NO surprise equity markets are struggling a little bit, key support, moving averages just below and well documented JPY, no hurry from Ueda, market may well test topside USDJPY again SPX500 all about moving averages 3960/3990 area, HSTECH struggling again, DAX near top after huge rally since October, worth considering taking some profit up here (valuations..), lets see what PCT says this afternoon. Overall, valuations are too high, but plenty of interesting single names, stock picking is what it's all about USD stays firm(er) overall, Ueda is no hurry either. EURUSD slowly sinking ( German Q4 GDP revised lower to -0.4% - BIG drop in domestic demand - chart below ), AUDUSD breaking down technically too. USDCNH 6.95 again ( highest since Dec - risk of sanctions? ).., USDCHF, as discussed last week, decent break, stays bullish while above 0.9250/75 area Macro Insights: Bank of Japan’s new governor Ueda – continuity with flexibility | Saxo Group (home.saxo) BOJ nominee Kazuo Ueda says 'appropriate' to continue easing - Nikkei Asia Ed Conway on Twitter: "It's the energy, stupid. A meditation on tomatoes, lettuce and whether an explanation for the productivity crisis might have been hiding in plain sight https://t.co/bRZrCVhnMD" / Twitter You see this across the piece with new technology these days. You can’t make batteries, solar panels or for that matter wind turbines without a lot of energy. Same thing, by the way, for fertilisers. These days not only is Europe importing more tomatoes, it’s shut down most of its fertiliser plants and is importing most of its ammonia from overseas. Some of this comes from the US, where it’s made with fracked shale gas. Some comes from China, where it’s made in part from coal (!) When we finally get around to making green fertiliser we’ll need even more energy. Crazy amounts of energy! We have spent much of the past 50 years focused on trying to reduce our energy consumption - for good reasons. We realised that it was damaging the environment. But if we ever finally crack clean, affordable energy production the world will become a far healthier, more productive place ECB scraps dividend after rising interest rates wipe out profits | Financial Times Netflix cuts prices for subscribers in more than 30 countries - BBC News The War in Ukraine: China Is Reportedly Negotiating with Russia To Supply Kamikaze Drones - DER SPIEGEL >>>> let's hope this is 'wrong', if it isn't, the BIG risk is that the US and Europe will respond very harshly with trade sanctions The more countries are involved in the implementation of the Peace Formula, the sooner the war in Ukraine will end - Volodymyr Zelenskyy — Official website of the President of Ukraine And Just right now mid morning, response already in : EC Pres. von der Leyen: -Sanctions are sharply eroding Russia's economic base -China shared principles, not a peace plan for Ukraine -China has already taken side for Russia, we have to view their principles in that light CNBC International on Twitter: "Further sanctions on Russia are being discussed, says European Commissioner for Economy, @PaoloGentiloni. https://t.co/gE6Iqrl5H6" / Twitter Russia's Putin Launched His Invasion of Ukraine 1 Year Ago At This Key Moment - Bloomberg As the Ukraine war reaches its first anniversary, how will it end? (cnbc.com) A look back at a year of brutality in Ukraine - BBC News China's 12-Point Plan to End Ukraine War Includes Halting Russian Sanctions (newsweek.com) BASF to cut 2,600 jobs as firm adjusts to future without cheap Russian gas | Business Standard News (business-standard.com) >>> Germany’s economy shrank more than expected at the end of 2022, falling 0.4% Walmart Has Bad News for Cash-Strapped Customers - TheStreet The world's largest retailer posted better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings on Feb.21, but issued a muted full-year profit forecast as it cautioned that consumers will continue to spend conservatively in a slowing economy. Explainer: If the middle class can’t afford electric cars, what about everyone else? (cityam.com) EURUSD - we mentioned after Feb NFP that 1.0750 break would change trend, since then German data weaker, risk of sanctions, and Fed Dec 2023 repriced by 80bps. plenty of room to head south

FOMC minutes : suggested that "a few" participants (3?) favoured a 50bps move . FOMC meeting took place before the surprisingly strong January NFP, the 50bp camp might be expanding further behind the scenes. No discussion on the quantitative criterion on a pause either, so further away, Terminal rate for Bullard and few others now around 5.4% Incoming BOJ Governor Ueda speaks tomorrow, the first time since his nomination China tells big tech companies not to offer ChatGPT services, and JPMorgan Chase Restricts Staffers’ Use Of ChatGPT , AI like ChatGPT amplifies 'darkest aspects of human nature,' Pinterest CEO warns Sweden’s Foreign Minister Tobias Billström told CNBC Sweden and Finland’s NATO membership was “just a matter of time” with negotiations with ratification holdout Turkey set to resume China instructs state firms to phase out big four auditors Vanguard CEO Tim Buckley says they "not in the game of politics, don't want to dictate companies' strategies" Meta plans to cut thousands of jobs, after CEO predicted no more layoffs Google has asked some employees to share desks - optimising space! German Food CPI jumped 20.2% YoY in Jan , Austria reached 17.4% in January, dry winter weather won't be helping going into summer ! good grief Russia’s Lavrov will take part in the meeting of G20 foreign ministers in New Delhi. G20 meeting: US Treasury Secretary Yellen: We will continue to impose further sanctions on Russia IEA Warns That Europe’s Energy war with Russia is not over - FT South Africans without electricity for 9 hours a day amid "ginormous" blackouts Markets: SPX500 testing 50 and 200dmas around 3'990 + trendline support from Oct lows - refer to chart yesterday DAX has rallied 3'500 pts since early Oct - Pretty impressive, but beware trend support line not too far below current market NatGas prices slightly higher/off lows on short-covering/spring weather forecasts colder USD firm(er) as you would expect post 'firm' FOMC minutes, watch out for USDJPY tomorrow though Bonds all made new lows yesterday, but Terminal rate now about 25bps above latest Fed 'infamous dots'.. so we may well be getting there slowly but surely! Crude and few other commods a little softer on strong $ Stock Markets: The Fed shows no sign of pausing interest rate hikes (cnbc.com) Fed officials wary of losing progress on inflation after strong job gains | The Hill China tells big tech companies not to offer ChatGPT services - Nikkei Asia JPMorgan Chase Restricts Staffers’ Use Of ChatGPT (forbes.com) ChatGPT Amplifies "Darkest Aspects of Human Nature:' Pinterest CEO (businessinsider.com) Sweden NATO membership is a 'matter of time': Swedish Foreign Min (cnbc.com) How the Russia-Ukraine war could end – four scenarios examined (telegraph.co.uk) Putin leads 200k rally of pro-war Russians at Moscow stadium | World | News | Express.co.uk Ukraine war: As Germany focuses on supporting Kyiv - the country's own armed forces are 'bleeding out', says tank parts maker | World News | Sky News England one dry spell away from return to severe drought, say experts | Drought | The Guardian Here we go again...not just a Venice issue! Drought in Horn of Africa worse than in 2011 famine | Climate News | Al Jazeera Reuters Science News on Twitter: "Weeks of dry winter weather have raised concerns that Italy could face another drought after last summer's emergency, with the Alps having received less than half of their normal snowfall, according to scientists and environmental groups. https://t.co/HFGpMDcYWI" / Twitter It’s the Energy, Stupid - by Ed Conway - Material World (substack.com) Food shortages, as energy prices went through the roof last year, wasn't viable anymore to grow anything and everything during our winter in polytunnels.. Tony Connelly on Twitter: "NI Protocol update: I understand the deal was basically done last weekend, all the technical stuff included (give or take a few loose ends with text)." / Twitter China instructs state firms to phase out big four auditors | China | The Guardian Eric Balchunas on Twitter: "Vanguard CEO Tim Buckley says they "not in the game of politics, don't want to dictate companies' strategies" re why pulled out of climate alliance. Says no evidence ESG investing (or private equity) creates better outcome for invs vs index fund via @FT https://t.co/grir5yLTz6 https://t.co/vQ0MSTEZix" / Twitter Meta plans to layoff thousands, after Zuckerberg said no more job cuts - The Washington Post Why are Toyota and Honda raising wages in Japan? (qz.com) Google asks some employees to share desks amid office downsizing (cnbc.com) Energy crisis: Inside South Africa’s limping economy | Nation DAX has had a monster rally since early Oct - time to take some P. !

TOKYO : Japan's 10-year government bond yield on Wednesday breached the top end of the Bank of Japan's policy band for a second straight session , prompting the central bank to step into the market with emergency bond buying and offering of loans & Toyota agrees to give the biggest wage hikes in two decades in an early sign of momentum in pay gains UK PMI's were stronger >>> rate expectations back to pricing in at least 2 more 25bps hikes >> and stronger in the U.S too S&P Global February flash services PMI 50.5 vs 47.2 expected >>> Trend of more positive PMIs continued. EU, UK and U.S yesterday Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang said “Without China's security, there will be no global security.” This is the honest truth. Hopefully that the US’ collective emotional intelligence can understand this sentence accurately, and don’t pose US’ security against China’s security Around the world, a pattern has emerged that’s making workers nervous: People are living longer, but governments are running out of money to support their retirements WSJ/In China, Worries About a Weakened Russia Prompt a Rethink. Concern that a Russian setback in Ukraine would cripple China’s partner against the West helps drive Beijing’s push for an end to the war UK salad shortages to last ‘for weeks’, retailers warn EU carbon hits €100 taking cost of polluting to record high Chinese provinces give 30 days' paid 'marriage leave' to boost birth rate New Zealand's central bank raised interest rates by 50 basis points to a more than 14-year high of 4.75% on Wed, and said it expects to keep tightening further as inflation remains too high, a hawkish signal that sent the local dollar surging, still sees rates heading towards 5.5% Markets : JNK - you don't want to worry when everyone panics (that's the time to buy) - well worth considering reducing now, if rates heading for 6% etc.. Dec 2023 rates in the U.S have moved 85bps in the U.S since early Feb NFP ! SPX500 towards 3900 - bottom of this range trade likely (chart below), sub 3570 would send alarm bells in markets - more pronounced in NASDAQ USD remains firm(er), GBP reacted positively to PMI, focus on JPY next, USDJPY and crossses will move hard if YCC announcement comes on Friday - or a sign that Ueda is going to move YCC Commodities softer, Crude softer, NatGas whaoo JGB's : this is a huge macro story for very near future - Japan govt bond breaches yield cap, BOJ steps in with buying, loans - CNA (channelnewsasia.com) Toyota to accept full union demand for wage hike - Business - Dunya News Nick Timiraos on Twitter: "Cleveland Fed researchers analyze the FOMC's most recent economic projections. Their model projects the FOMC's unemployment rate path brings core PCE inflation to 2.75% by 2025 "A deep recession would be necessary to achieve" the 2.1% inflation projection https://t.co/EsstjT0oQ9 https://t.co/3HA5fbkVNj" / Twitter >>> true madness hey, we need a recession to bring inflation down !! that's because the FED and other CB's were far far too slow to hike, and anyhow why is 2% right, why isntt 3%inflation the right number ? Fancy this walk ? going there a the week-end... Tweet / Twitter EU carbon hits €100 taking cost of polluting to record high (cityam.com) Are Junk Bonds Sending Worrisome Message To Investors? - See It Market yes...well do worry (reduce) when no-one is !!! Monetary Policy Statement February 2023 - Reserve Bank of New Zealand - Te Pūtea Matua (rbnz.govt.nz) Carl Quintanilla on Twitter: "MORGAN STANLEY: Global liquidity has provided the “supplemental oxygen investors need to survive,” but “the oxygen eventually runs out. .. It’s time to head back to base camp before the next guide down in earnings.” [Wilson] $SPX https://t.co/jLQ4nFm2dk" / Twitter In China, Worries About a Weakened Russia Prompt a Rethink - WSJ Ukraine war: President Putin speech fact-checked - BBC News The UK Public Finances are starting to look a lot better | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog (wordpress.com) PowerPoint Presentation (podbean.com) EU gas market: mild winter, demand cuts, LNG and weak China Marjorie Taylor Greene calls again for ‘a national divorce’ | The Hill really.. Must be another #Brexit bonus Asda limits purchase of some fruits and vegetables due to supply challenges | Business News | Sky News Prolonged low tides see smaller canals dry up in Venice | The Independent Again! so flipping sad!! Chinese provinces give 30 days’ paid leave to boost births | Free Malaysia Today (FMT) How Russia's 35-mile armoured convoy ended in failure - BBC News SPX 3900 - bottom of this range trade likely, below 3570 would send alarm bells - more pronounced in NASDAQ

What a day in Ukraine y'day with the Biden visit to Kyiv - perhaps the most consequential POTUS visit in post Soviet space since Bush’s visit to Georgia in 2005. The three-dimensional diplomatic chess game China can't win : bashing the US, wooing Europe and standing by Russia. Taiwan is bolstering military exchanges with U.S., President Tsai says. Wang Yi visiting Russia today BofA "It's the most aggressive Fed tightening in decades and U.S. retail sales are at all-time highs; unemployment at 43-year lows; payrolls up over 500k in January and CPI/PPI inflation reaccelerating," " That's a Fed mission very much unaccomplished." French S&P Global Services PMI Feb P: 52.8 (est 49.8; prev 49.4) - 7months highs.. - no sign of recession there either. Auto sales in Europe rise for a sixth month, driven by robust growth in Spain and Italy. Bigger divergence between services and manufacturing, as in most countries.. RBA minutes : pausing in Feb not an option, even 50bps was discussed NI Brexit deal may trigger resignations , Sunak told. PM warned not to undermine Northern Ireland-Times Portugal's government announces radical plans to tackle housing crisis. Includes forcing all unoccupied homes to be put on market at affordable prices where it will act as estate agent. All rental prices will be capped and 'tourist apartments' prohibited Switzerland’s financial regulator is reviewing comments that Credit Suisse chairman made in December on outflows from the company having stabilized , on the basis that they may have been misleading, Reuters reports Venice canals start to run dry as low tide and lack of rain hit. Gondolas unable to navigate some of its famous canals as Italy faces prospect of another drought Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said on Tuesday wage growth will likely accelerate as companies increase pay to compensate households for the higher cost of living, and cope with an intensifying labour shortage Markets : Strong EZ PMI will keep Lagarde, Schnabel & Co hawkish , while as BofA mentions above, little signs of U.S economy showing signs of slowdown either, should keep markets guessing about 5.5 or even 6% - at a stretch USD remains on firm side, Ueda/BoJ on 24th Feb a key moment, Kuroda's last meeting in March too. Bonds should continue to struggle in the face of strong macro data Metals on the backfoot in the face of higher yields/strong usd SPX500 4150 on topside, maybe revisit 3900 area in coming weeks MS:.. Recent economic data suggest the economy might be able to dodge a recession, but that has also taken the possibility of a Federal Reserve pivot off the table. That’s left rates higher across the curve and stocks more expensive than at any time since 2007 by the measure of equity risk premium, they added. Equity risk premium has entered a level known as the “death zone”, making risk-reward very poor especially as the Fed is far from ending its monetary tightening and earnings expectations remain 10% to 20% too high, Wilson said. “It’s time to head back to base camp before the next guide down in earnings,” he wrote in a note on Monday. Gunjan Banerji on Twitter: "Venture firms raised $20.6 billion in new funds in the fourth quarter--a 65% drop YoY and the lowest 4Q amount since **2013** @berber_jin1 @WSJmarkets https://t.co/r2tK4cEHrt" / Twitter Ukraine - China & the Biden visit - by Timothy Ash (substack.com) well worth a read - The message from the Biden administration is absolutely clear - we stand firmly behind Ukraine, to the end, and it’s inevitable victory over Russia. If Biden can visit Kyiv then there are few limits to US support for Ukraine - fighter jets are a real possibility. There are other views clearly..China can't stand on both sides as they seem to right now.. China Misreads the Room in Munich | Strengthening Transatlantic Cooperation (gmfus.org) The three-dimensional diplomatic chess game China can't win: bashing the US, wooing Europe and standing by Russia The market is underestimating geopolitical risks | Saxo Group (home.saxo) Summary: Bubble stocks are up more than 20% this year in a sign of the comeback of reckless gambling behaviour by retail investors. This has been across massive speculation in zero-days-to-expiry options, ridiculous moves in AI-related stocks, and cryptocurrencies. It is all based on a blind spot towards the accelerating geopolitical risks and a naive hope of inflation coming back to the old past. The Munich Security Conference over the weekend has highlighted the growing geopolitical risks and this week is about appreciating these risks. In today's equity note we once again highlight our defence basket which has by far been the best performing basket over the past year. 7 February 2023 | Minutes of the Monetary Policy Meeting of the Board | RBA Stuart Lau on Twitter: "China’s response to US claims that it considers sending arms to Russia" / Twitter It is the US, not China, that has been pouring weapons into the battlefield in Ukraine. The US is in no position to tell China what to do. China will never accept US finger-pointing or coercion on China-Russia relations Forget ‘unretiring’ the Covid cohort – mothers, older workers and people with disabilities hold the key to getting Britain working • Resolution Foundation Deadly new quakes trap people under rubble in Turkey - BBC News Portugal revoluciona su política de la vivienda: prohibirá nuevos pisos turísticos y elimina los ‘visados de oro’ | Economía | EL PAÍS (elpais.com) How the Russian economy self-immolated in the year since Putin invaded Ukraine | Fortune The 1000+ global companies who voluntarily chose to exit Russia in an unprecedented. These voluntary business exits of companies with in-country revenues equivalent to 35% of Russia’s GDP Maersk nears complete Russia exit after selling logistics sites | Reuters Good Energy: turning a consistent profit from UK clean power (thearmchairtrader.com) Venice canals start to run dry as low tide and lack of rain hit | Italy | The Guardian

This week , we start with President's day (U.S markets closed), then we get RBA minutes tom and Fed minutes (Wed) from the Feb meeting when they raised 25bps (any chatters of 50bps mentioned?), both likely to be on hawkish side (then again should hardly be a surprised!), EZ flash PMI's, UK/EU trying to hash out a deal on NI, G20 in India at the end of the week and the Fed's favourite data, PCE update on Friday Ukraine, IMF reach SLA to initiate discussions on full-fledged program Why ten years ago it was all about HFTs (equities cash and futs) and now it's all about 0DTE (options)? Because Options are now 70% of the notional value of equity traded on a daily basis vs 40% a decade ago, amazing numbers! Inflation will be harder to bring down than markets think. Investors are betting on good times. The likelier prospect is turbulence / Economist The Adani group’s decision to club non-current investments and security money put up against bank guarantees as part of cash equivalents has raised concerns among analysts about whether the new classification portrays an accurate picture of the group’s ability to meet financial obligations Inside the White House’s view of the war as it enters a second year: There are growing fears that Russia is finding its footing, Ukraine may be overmatched in certain parts of the east and south and the West’s pipeline of weapons could slow to a trickle Fed's Barkin : ‘Slow progress’ on inflation, sees more hike China may be on brink of supplying arms to Russia, says Blinken . US secretary of state meets with top Chinese diplomat, Wang Yi, and warns of ‘serious problem for us’ if Beijing supplies weaponry to Vladimir Putin Tai Says 2023 Will Be a ‘Gangbuster’ Year for EU-US Trade Ties/BBG Foreign investors are scaling back their purchases of Chinese stocks as hopes for a reopening rally in the world's second-biggest economy give way to concerns about falling cargo shipments and lackluster sales of homes and cars. China central bank is less likely to cut interest rates or reserve requirement ratio after injecting large amounts of cash via reverse repos Friday, China central bank asks banks to slow down lending in February Schnabel, One of the European Central Bank’s most senior officials said that investors risk underestimating the persistence of inflation, and the response needed to bring it under control Markets : FTSE100 8'000+ for 1st time in its history - fair to say though it has done very little over the last 20years, so one could argue it's got a long way to go, at least on relative basis SPX500 'failed/topped' at 4'150 , CTA's and retail would appear to have got long(er), if the market starts to think it's a ceiling (on valuation and/or higher terminal rate, or both..) then we could very well 'slide' towards 3900 again over next few weeks (JPY and YCC decision over next few weeks Very important too) USD softened a little on Friday, ahead of President's day, Barkin seemed to be the trigger and thus risk held in steady defined range . Feb 24th will be important day for Ueda and JPY Bonds : higher for longer , hikes extended, Terminal rates lifted higher, 5.25% in the U.S, the surprise for markets would clearly be if we 'have' to go to 5.5/6% range China/US/UKR/RU tensions perhaps on the rise overall, even North Korea too BOJ watchers flag risk of March surprise by Kuroda to ease Ueda transition | The Japan Times Ukraine, IMF reach SLA to initiate discussions on full-fledged program – Fund following mission (interfax.com.ua) Chinese reopening rally stalls as foreign investors cut purchases - Nikkei Asia China central bank asks banks to slow down lending in February -sources | Reuters ECB’s Schnabel Sees Risk Markets Underestimate Inflation (yahoo.com) Fed’s Barkin: ‘Slow progress’ on inflation, sees more hikes | The Sacramento Bee (sacbee.com) Culture war concerns are creating new divisions for Conservatives to traverse (cityam.com) To stay out of a recession, we need to get on with hashing out a deal on Northern Ireland (cityam.com) 1st G20 Finance Ministers & Central Bank Governors Jonathan Lemire on Twitter: "Inside the White House’s view of the war as it enters a second year: There are growing fears that Russia is finding its footing, Ukraine may be overmatched in certain parts of the east and south and the West’s pipeline of weapons could slow to a trickle https://t.co/qNauqSkGKg" / Twitter North Korea fires short-range missiles after making threats - Independent.ie Inflation will be harder to bring down than markets think | The Economist Billionaire John Paulson: central banks are replacing dollars with gold, you are better off investing in precious metal than USD | Kitco News China may be on brink of supplying arms to Russia, says Blinken | Ukraine | The Guardian “The concern that we have now is, based on information we have, that they’re considering providing lethal support,” Blinken told CBS’s “Face the Nation” shortly after he met with Wang. “And we’ve made very clear to them that that could cause a serious problem for us and in our relationship.'' Section 230, student debt top divisive Supreme Court agenda | The Hill Adani’s new cash figures draw investors’ scrutiny | Mint (livemint.com) Fox News Host Confronts Nikki Haley on How She Differs From Donald Trump (newsweek.com) Treasure hunter claims FBI is covering up discovery of Civil War-era gold worth millions: 'Double-crossed' (yahoo.com) Fugtive Crypto Star Withdraws Millions From Swiss Bank (finews.com) Who could this possibly be.. Cyclone Gabrielle: Rebuilding cost on par with Christchurch quake - NZ - BBC News