Wishing you & yours a happy, healthy and prosperous new year, hope this daily helps achieve some of your goals Starting 2024, the big question for markets is whether the FED (with 3 cuts in 2024) or the market (with 6cuts priced in for the year) is right, bonds markets which have been 'the' leading driver in 2023, will remain the key in 2024! Red Sea tensions up a notch or two, Iran, Houthis and a lot of misinformation, tensions rising though, re-routing of ships in the Red Sea will impact the longer it goes on, with chain stress, rising freight prices and energy prices (risk inflation higher), ongoing developments in Taiwan, Russia/Ukraine, Venezuela/Guyana and Israel will remain in focus Israel-Gaza war live: IDF indicates war will stretch on throughout 2024 UK's food price inflation decelerated to 6.7% in December – the lowest level since June 2022 and down from 7.7% in November Wage inflation in late 2023, effectively delayed (risk of) recession Why is the EU’s decision on accession so important—and what does it mean for Ukraine and Russia? A Year of Political Chicken Markets : Contrarians might want to have a look at Chinese stocks in 2024 #HSI, on expectations of big stimulus coming up and an eventual economic recovery, sell bonds and rebuy USD again Equity markets : most financial institutions now expect markets to go up in 2024, when the tightening cycle is over, remember those same experts and investment bank's predictions from same time last year ? 8 out of 10 institutions were predicting SPX500 between 3700/4200 by end of 2023... UST's are the key to all/most of it, reading invest house research and BofA FM survey in Dec, seems everyone is/got long bonds again ? USDollar weakened into year-end, as bonds and risk rallied, beware a reverse Jan reaction This is what is required for that contrarian #SHCOMP #KWEB view ' China needs fiscal firepower to spark equity revival ( robeco.com ) "The New Era for Portfolio Managers" - Inside Paradeplatz Tuesday briefing: Will the Red Sea crisis lead to a wider Middle East conflict? | World news | The Guardian Israel's top court strikes down key legal reform ( rte.ie ) Putin's military unleashes wave of rush hour air strikes on Kyiv as Ukrainians return to work in New Year | Evening Standard Suspected Chinese Balloon Flies Directly Over Taiwan ( newsweek.com ) Venezuela says troops will stay deployed until British military vessel leaves waters off Guyana ( msn.com ) Ukrainian EU membership would be a strategic masterstroke ( prospectmagazine.co.uk ) China December factory contraction deepens, more stimulus on the cards | Reuters Japan quake toll hits 30 as rescuers race to find survivors - Nikkei Asia What an awful start to their year Swiss voters to decide on foie gras and fur imports - SWI swissinfo.ch A Year of Political Chicken by Harold James - Project Syndicate ( project-syndicate.org ) BYD produced more than 3 million cars in 2023, set to beat Tesla ( cnbc.com ) China-India trade tensions may continue in 2024, but Beijing doesn’t want to rock the boat | South China Morning Post ( scmp.com ) Have a great start to 2024, whishing you and yours a healthy, jolly and prosperous new year team PVM

Biggest message of 2023 ? >>> Markets have a tendency to not follow the script, consensus can be dangerous...so many financial forecasters and banks come up with consensus views that end up being totally mistimed/wrong (including central banks that hiked too late, and now too much - probably), historical data has its limitations in today's world of QE/QT/BTFP/ODTE options/Fed reverse Repo and so on and central bank's very heavy involvement, probabilities : don't always follow old formulas anymore, lived experiences from long while ago are always useful, but can be a major burden, stay flexible.. >>> few 'unexpected' examples in 2023 : Mag 7 vs other 493 SPX names, bond market round trip, house prices and rates up, equity markets rallied on higher rates, China markets vs EMG, commodities, lithium, CHF and many other assets didn't do what most experts said they were going to do in 2023 ...!... >>> valuations are the best way to go about it, we stick to our valuation models, best medium to long-term results for our investor clients With this in mind, this is where it could possibly go wrong, ie against current consensus in 2024 : Fewer cuts from Fed than market has priced in (2x as much as Fed dots), U.S economy goes into recession and/or earnings actually slowdown (vs expectations that are again at record, looking for 11% up) Maine joins Colorado in finding Trump ineligible for primary ballot. California declines to block Trump from 2024 ballot Romania and Bulgaria are expected to join the EU’s border-free Schengen area in March T he stopwatch for a diplomatic solution is running out ,’ Israeli minister Benny Gantz has warned as fears of a wider war in the Middle East grow (yet crude prices a little softer last few days) Norges Bank announces less daily 'sales' of NOK from Jan 2024 30y U.S mortgage rates are now lower than at the start of 2023! The outperformance if U.S vs global equities ends the year pretty much on ALL time highs (chart available from BofA FM survey) Investment Managers continue to scoop up stocks at breakneck pace as the NAAIM Exposure Index hits its highest level in more than 2 years (playing catch up), with more than 76% of SPX500 stocks now trading above their 200dma's , which is also highest in 2years Chinese smartphone titan Xiaomi unveils its first EV in a $10 billion bet to rival Tesla and Porsche >>> China already produces EVs only at over 40 factories, over 100 others jointly with ice’s, has huge competition coming for europe and RoW 2023 was the hottest year on record , with November being the most abnormally hot month on record Over the last 2months we've had the following happening : -Markets added some 150bps of rate cuts in 2024 -The 10y UST note yield dropped some 120bps -The average 30y mortgage rates dropped about 130bps -SPX500 is up 16% - other 'rate sensitive' sectors and QQQ up more -USD index is down about 7% >>>>> And this is with core inflation that is still 2x the Fed's 2% inflation target >>> is this what the FED 'wanted'..? risk is that markets went too far too fast last 2months Federal Reserve bets on smooth landing even as economists anticipate a bumpy ride ( ft.com ) everyone wants a smooth landing King dollar seen vulnerable in 2024 if Fed pivots | Reuters Foreign exchange transactions in January 2024 ( norges-bank.no ) Confiscating Russian assets would be ‘cataclysm’ for dollar – Nobel Prize winner - The Press United Ten killed as Russia hits Ukrainian cities with huge aerial barrage | World News | Sky News not ending the year in a nicer way! Can China get its economic miracle back on track in 2024? | Reuters Xiaomi Unveils First EV, SU7, With Ambition to Be China’s Porsche or Tesla - Bloomberg The Long View on X: "Chinese megacap tech is priced like energy in late 2020. It is widely viewed as uninvestible due to existential risks over government interference. But that view is squarely at odds with company fundamentals." / X ( twitter.com ) Where is democracy headed in 2024? Trump may have the final word | Reuters A tax increase, LGBTQ+ youth protections and more sick leave highlight California's new laws in 2024 | AP News Good lord! just whaoo Beachgoers swept away as huge wave crashes over wall in California - BBC News SNB doesn't want to be blamed for the sinking of CS - Inside Paradeplatz Roche on the verge of job cut - Inside Paradeplatz Top subsidiaries of property giant Signa file for bankruptcy ( msn.com ) What will 2024 bring for UK investors? Britain is still a 'bargain' say experts - here's how to invest | This is Money jeroen blokland on X: "Blackrock has defined five ‘Mega Forces,’ ‘big, structural changes that affect investing now - and far in the future.’ You judge if this fits a traditional 60-40 portfolio. You will find my investment conclusions at the end. 1. Demographic divergence Aging populations in major…" / X ( twitter.com ) Singapore Fines Credit Suisse Over Mischarged Spreads by Bankers ( finews.asia ) Not even surprising anymore.. good grief.. According to the MAS, Credit Suisse’s relationship managers had provided clients with inaccurate or incomplete post-trade disclosures resulting in spreads for 39 over-the-counter (OTC) bond transactions being charged above agreed rates.  Maine Bars Trump From 2024 Primary Ballot, Joining Colorado - The New York Times ( nytimes.com ) Romania and Bulgaria partly joining Schengen area ( msn.com ) Thank you for your support in 2023, we wish you and yours a super healthy, full of joy and happiness new year, Guten Rutsch! Bonne année and a happy new year 🌟🥂🫶🌈🌈🙌

World bond index.. biggest 2month gain on record >>> CHF closing 2023 on all time highs, JPY and metals react, pretty classic FX moves on inflation collapse, bonf and risk melt-up Global investors remain bearish on the Chinese market due to worries about its property troubles, according to a Bank of America survey >>> EMG up 15% in 2023 and SHCOMP down 15%..the contrarians will notice and pick some China exposure for 2024 US Labor Market Seen Cooling in 2024, Regional Fed Surveys Show UST's : broadly speaking back to where they were same time last year, as discussed many times back then, the FED was far too late in hiking in 2021-22 (did far too much QE:.), then had to catch up and overdo with hikes in 2023...and here we are, 2y yields are now about 15-20bps lower on the year and Fed funds is 1% higher... Stocks typically continue to rise when the FED starts to cut, unless there is a recession, all about that soft landing that is currently priced in by pretty much everyone Robert Holzmann, one of the ECB’s most hawkish Governing Council members, says it’s too early to talk about lowering borrowing costs, and such a move in 2024 is anything but certain Japan’s currency received the largest inflow from global FX reserves among the eight tracked by the IMF in the third quarter , based on the latest data from the fund adjusted for exchange-rate fluctuations and returns on short-term government bonds… Half of the container ship fleet that regularly transits the Red Sea and Suez Canal is now avoiding the route because of the threat of attacks in the region Market expectations for Fed's rate path is as follow : -Jan 2024 still pausing -March 2024 - 25bps cut to 5.0-5.25% -May 2024 - 25bps cut to 4.75-5.0% -June 2024 - 25bps cut to 4.5-4.75% -July 2024 - 25bps cut to 4.25-4.5% -Additional cuts priced in all the way down to 3.15% by Dec 2025.. BofA: Investor Interest in China «Shockingly Low» ( finews.asia ) ECB’s Holzmann Says Rate Cuts in 2024 Aren’t Guaranteed - Bloomberg Foreign investors unwind $33bn bet on China growth rebound ( ft.com ) Fed Surveys Across America Show Employers Expecting to Hire Less in 2024 - Bloomberg Apple can temporarily sell smartwatches after US appeals court win | Reuters Iran Blames Trump for October 7 Hamas Attack in Israel ( newsweek.com ) blame game Red Sea Attacks Latest: Half of Container-Ship Fleet Avoids Route - Bloomberg Musk, Trump, Tapper and Hannity: 5 memorable media interviews from 2023 | The Hill China says it won't turn a blind eye to Philippines' repeated 'provocations' | Reuters USDJPY

The United States has finalized contracts to purchase three million barrels of oil to help replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) after the largest sale in history last year, the U.S. Department of Energy said on Tuesday GS : "We now see below-2% core PCE inflation as a plausible outcome for 2024.", “.. For the Fed, we believe below-target core inflation would lead the Committee to consider consecutive 25bp cuts at every FOMC meeting until the funds rate approaches their estimate of neutral at that time ..” BMO: Powell “couldn't have asked for a better present .. consumers are spending, the economy is rolling along creating jobs and lifting incomes, and yet inflation is simmering down nicely. .. the endgame is turning out better than the Fed or nearly anyone could have imagined ..” FT- Israel warns of regional conflict risk as Iran tensions increase (crude..) Maersk resumed Red Sea shipping under U.S-led naval coalition AI systems can't be named as the inventor of patents , UK's top court rules, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang says AI will be ‘fairly competitive’ with humans in 5 years The Bullish Percent Index (BPI), developed by Abe Cohen in the 1950s is a breadth indicator based on the number of stocks based on Point and Figure Buy signals. The indicator helps you know the market's health and when it's overbought or oversold >>> In 2022 and 2023, the indicator reached 70 (overbought) six times, all occurrences were near market peaks, and the indicator is again at/over 70 today Global banks cut 60'000 jobs in 2023, led by CS/UBS, Citi and Wells SPX500 has drawn around $40 billion in inflows in December, on track for the biggest monthly haul since it began trading in 1993 Confiscating Russian assets would be ‘cataclysm’ for dollar – Shiller Markets : The real question for markets in 2024, is whether the Fed Dec 2023 pivot will not trigger a new 'run-up' in inflation, and thus whether those 160bps of rate cuts priced in now for next year, need to be at least partly adjusted.. IronOre hitting $140 a ton, highest in 18months, #URA uranium prices hitting 10+ year highs, Crude WTI mid 70's range again , didn't stay long below $70, Red Sea situation keeping markets on edge >> the FED pivot bottom ticked the energy complex! The small-cap Russell 2,000 has finally cleared the top of the sideways range it had been in since mid-2022 Equity markets grinding higher, Asia off their preXmas lows too (after the China announcement on gaming - but it has been a terrible year for SHCOMP and HSI), most staying bullish because the S&P500 has not declined during a re-election year since 1952 and has averaged about 10% gains in those years (inflation, rates the key, it is all that matters). SMI really underperformed this year, CHF strength. UST 2year yields finishing slightly below levels where they were at the end of December 2023! those 4.8%+ yields earlier this year and again in Sep were a gift USDollar weaker into year-end, if the bond market is right for 2024, the $$ should have a pretty bad year overall, FX not really being on the markets mind on a relative basis, bonds, equity, metals, crypto all moved much more than FX in 2023 GOLD ...''will not go (much) below $2K ever again!'', from a cost of production perspective XPT looks even better/cheaper, as for XAG mning, which has been in decline (Mexico), you'd think it has a real good chance to have a decent rally too Fed Likely to End Bank Funding Program in March, Wrightson Says - Bloomberg US buys 3 million barrels of oil for strategic reserve ( msn.com ) Americans ramped up spending during the holidays despite some financial anxiety and higher costs ( yahoo.com ) Confiscating Russian assets would be ‘cataclysm’ for dollar – Nobel Prize winner - The Press United Bespoke on X: "The small-cap Russell 2,000 has finally cleared the top of the sideways range it had been in since mid-2022. If at first you don't succeed, try, try, try, and try again! https://t.co/MzlJolpHV9 " / X ( twitter.com ) Digital Currency Group's Barry Silbert steps down as Grayscale chairman: CNBC Crypto World Intel to Invest $25 Billion in Israel After Winning $3.2 Billion in Incentives - Bloomberg Porsche reckons with history of forgotten Jewish co-founder ( ft.com ) Russia-Ukraine war live: Kyiv disputes Moscow’s claim to control Maryinka in country’s east ( theguardian.com ) Maersk preparing to resume shipping through Red Sea - BBC News IMF on X: "A scramble to secure strategic minerals such as copper, cobalt, lithium, and nickel could increase price pressures and raise the cost of the climate transition, IMF economists write in the latest issue of F&D. https://t.co/4GACl71HYF https://t.co/5fjQJutkS2 " / X ( twitter.com ) IMF always late to the party.. From Inconsistent ESG Ratings to Meaningful Sustainability Assessments ( finews.asia ) Samuel Gerber: «First Signs of Delusion at UBS» ( finews.asia ) Who’s to blame for the demise of Credit Suisse? - SWI swissinfo.ch top management for the last 10years?.. Rigged Game - Inside Paradeplatz >> The fact that this did not happen and that Switzerland instead wrote off the AT-1s without replacement – and thus brought in powerful plaintiffs – and did not convert the bail-in bonds was due to foreign pressure AI systems can't be named as the inventor of patents, UK's top court rules ( qz.com ) Nvidia CEO: AI will be 'fairly competitive' with humans in 5 years ( cnbc.com ) Could a direct high-speed train link between Switzerland and London soon be a reality? - SWI swissinfo.ch sounds nuts, but would be great! 2023 In Politics: From Doomed Pledges To The Rise And Fall Of Top Political Players ( politicshome.com ) What Ever Happened to the Tiny House Movement? | WIRED they look great! France's new immigration law raises new barriers for African students ( lemonde.fr )

Happy Holidays, Frohe Weihnachten, Joyeux Noel, Buon Natale, Feliz Navidad! "May the warmth of the holiday season bring joy to you and your loved ones. Wishing you a Merry Christmas and a wonderful New Year filled with happiness and prosperity!" U.S core PCE QoQ 2.0% (est 2.3%, previous 3.7%...) , when you add deflation signals in China and Europe...the rate cuts expectations look justified (after hikes got overdone topside initially by CB's that had been so late at actually start to hike 2years ago....) >>> we are now tipped a bit over 50% odds that by this time next year, the Fed will have cut 175bps China unveiled a raft of new measures to rein in spending and content in online games , signaling the start of another industry crackdown that wiped out roughly $54 billion of Tencent Holdings Ltd.’s value-BBG, China 30y yields hit lowest yields sinc2 2005 ! Angola leaves OPEC in blow to oil producer group German far-right party makes electoral breakthrough . Alternative for Germany secures first town mayoralty amid federal government’s rising unpopularity Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin met in Beijing, signaling a stronger alliance between the two countries Container rates hit $10,000 as ocean freight inflation soars in Red Sea crisis Switzerland’s financial regulator is investigating Julius Bär Group over inadequate risk-control structures that contributed to the bank’s exposure to bankrupt property mogul Rene Benko Giuliani files for bankruptcy Banks are pocketing real money by borrowing money from the Fed's newest backstop facility, which charges a lower rate, and then parking it at another unit of the Fed, which pays higher interest. Banks are borrowing record amounts from this new facility, why not do it if you could! Markets : All relatively quiet, but Wednesday's 1.5% sell-off, is not worrying given the extent of it in pct terms, but shows how suddenly things can change USD remains soft(er) going into year-end , as bonds firm up/yields soften again pore PCE Equity markets holding up pretty well by the looks, low yields and vols all contributing to help sentiment going into 2024 Gold, Silver, XPT all at very interesting tech levels - a lot of research talking 'on the cusp of breaking' Container rates hit $10,000 as ocean freight inflation soars in Red Sea crisis ( msn.com ) Fed’s Newest Tool Has Become More Attractive on Rate-Cut Bets ( yahoo.com ) liquidity! Demand for Fed’s Bank Term Funding Facility Grows to Record High - Bloomberg They were ignored for 10 years – now the Houthis are threatening to throw global trade into chaos ( msn.com ) Gold near 3-week peak on Fed rate cut bets, US inflation test looms | Reuters Europe has record gas stores for winter — but bills remain painful ( cnbc.com ) Short sellers lost close to $178 billion in 2023 ( yahoo.com ) Ranked: Government Debt by Country, in Advanced Economies ( visualcapitalist.com ) BOJ debated communicating possible end of easy policy: October minutes - Nikkei Asia Economy still appears headed for recession, U.S. leading index signals - MarketWatch Softer crude, rates, inflation would tend to suggest higher GDP ahead, unless debt really hits home (and spending) in 2024.. Angola leaves OPEC in blow to oil producer group ( gulfbusiness.com ) most of its Oil goes to China Warren Buffett Just Added $589 Million to 1 of Berkshire Hathaway's Top Holdings ( yahoo.com ) 79% Of India's GDP Is Generated By Family-Owned Businesses | ZeroHedge Mapping the conflict in Israel and Gaza ( reuters.com ) China and Russia Send a Message to the West As the Two Strengthen Ties ( businessinsider.com ) Tencent, NetEase shares plummet on new China online gaming guidelines ( msn.com ) German far-right party makes electoral breakthrough ( ft.com ) Evie oder Enkelmann: Wem gibt Bär Schuld am Benko-Gate? - Inside Paradeplatz Julius Bär probed by Swiss regulator over Signa risk lapses - SWI swissinfo.ch Credit Suisse: Final Reckoning for Excessive Bonuses ( finews.asia ) You bet..! Rudy Giuliani declares bankruptcy after being ordered to pay $150 million in defamation lawsuit ( msn.com ) How tipping in the United States got out of control ( cnbc.com ) Used to really dislike this system..you? XAGUSD - break up ? decision time - Q1 2024

FED pricing : we now have nearly -7- cuts priced in for 2024, market even pricing in 5bps for Feb meeting, that's hitting the 'markets going too far indicator' US Conf Board consumer confidence Dec: 110. 7 (est 104.5; prevR 101.0) - Conf Board Present Situation Dec: 148.5 (prev 138.2) - Conf Board Expectations Dec: 85.6 (prev 77.8) >>> best since July Philadelphia Fed's Harker on Wed said he still opposes any further U.S. central bank interest rate hikes, while signaling openness to lowering short-term borrowing costs, albeit not imminently Xi warned Biden during summit that Beijing will reunify Taiwan with Chin a. The Chinese leader's message in San Francisco got the attention of U.S. officials because it was delivered at a meeting that was intended to reduce tensions. How to cure China’s declining consumer prices divides opinion as deflation signs deepen Macron insists new law will fix France’s festering ‘immigration problem’ . The French president denies the landmark legislation is an 'ideological victory' for Marine Le Pen's National Rally China reportedly suspends US$6.5 billion currency swap agreement with Argentina FedEx : recession warning?: “U.S. package volume was down 3.5% in the November quarter, on a down 15.1% year-ago comp. In other words, the two-year volume trend is deeply negative, and worse than last quarter. So much for improving box demand...” US and UK tighten enforcement of Russian oil price cap UK's Hunt to sign financial services agreement with Switzerland Markets : 30y UST closed below 4% for the first time since July, 10's 3.85% >> 7 cuts priced in for '24 Commodities - funds are most underweight for a very long time, like over 6years SPX500 dips 1.5% as VIX options expiries are hit by some big daily ODTE options buying, gamma squeeze on the day, that's all, below 4650 and VIX 15+ say and it may look diff into year-end ! USDJPY, CROSSJPY's looks set for a move down again sooner or later, particularly with global yields staying low(er), CHF looks to close strong(er) into year-end, bar any new developments from SNB GOLD, XPT, XAG etc been fairly steady/higher, momentum building for a break up EU HY prices widest vs US since 2009 >>> this is what FI markets watching going into 2024 Over next few days, beware if whatever is overly owned, liquidity gaps, Algo's will push for weak side of things very quickly, as demonstrated last night (SPX-US equities) Fed's Harker open to lowering interest rates, but not imminently ( yahoo.com ) New Threat: The Bloomberg Open, Americas Edition - Bloomberg Houthi Attacks in the Red Sea Add $22 Billion to Valuations of Shipping Companies ( yahoo.com ) Red Sea Threat: Container Ships Reroute as US Weighs Response - Bloomberg Xi warned Biden during summit that Beijing will reunify Taiwan with China ( nbcnews.com ) US and UK tighten enforcement of Russian oil price cap ( ft.com ) A Brief History of Gold in the United States | LinkedIn Macron insists new law will fix France's festering 'immigration problem' ( telegraph.co.uk ) Louis Curran on X: "🇺🇸Great Hall Of The People Accord 🇨🇳 China Sold US Bonds In Q3, But Rescued The US And China From Armegeddon. IMV, China was gaming the US using its US bond holdings as leverage around the time Fitch downgraded US deb. After the downgrade, they said nothing publically, but… https://t.co/DpkRcAFl8O " / X ( twitter.com ) How to cure China’s declining consumer prices divides opinion as deflation signs deepen | South China Morning Post ( scmp.com ) China reportedly suspends US$6.5 billion currency swap agreement with Argentina | South China Morning Post ( scmp.com ) Hunt to sign financial services agreement with Switzerland ( msn.com ) Good ! Why Wall Street thinks Apple could be the first $4 trillion company ( cnbc.com ) good lord Ed Conway on X: "🌞Here's a short story abt how I went to Morocco to see one of the world's biggest solar plants. It didn't go quite as I expected This is the Noor complex near Ouarzazate. It's massive. Bigger than the capital of Morocco. Europe (& UK) plan to import solar power from Morocco. 🧵 https://t.co/GHWQfy99IU " / X ( twitter.com ) this is very good too Ed Conway on X: "This is an excellent guided tour of a semiconductor factory from someone who genuinely understands the technology (and is great at explaining it) - @matthewvenn https://t.co/LytPTKGmLk " / X ( twitter.com ) Cocaine: Swiss capital Bern may allow sales as 'the war on drugs has failed' | World News | Sky News EURJPY (USDJPY) look set to soon start new leg lower

Global fund manager sentiment is the most upbeat since Jan. 2022 : BofA survey. Investors were the most overweight stocks since before the Fed started to hike rates. Cash was cut to a 2-year low of 4.5% & investors are the most overweight bonds in 15 years, something to beware/keep in mind for early Jan, just in case Bonds start misbehaving again. Same survey shows FM are the most underweight commodities in over 6years Fed talks : Raphael Bostic stressed patience before the Fed lowers rates, seeing inflation coming down “relatively slowly in the next six months.” Thomas Barkin signaled cuts are on the horizon if inflation keeps falling >>> the Fed pivot, asset markets rally, decline in VIX, IG spreads since March (60bps), 10y UST drop in yields to current levels and lower oil prices ($20 since Sep) will boost U.S GDP growth by 1.5% or so in H1 (perhaps why Fed will have to be careful..) According to multiple U.S. Officials, Preparations are now underway for a Military Operation against the Houthi Terrorist Group in Yemen by the United States and others/Thread below Japan govt to raise long-term rate estimate to 1.9 % in next year's budget Markets : NYFANG is most overbought since June levels (overbought can stay overbought for longer than many thinks though, overbought does not mean down - just needs consolidating for few weeks, many other 'overbought signals out there though, RSI's 70+ act accordingly Bund on 1 handle, 1,99%, massive move, when you consider it was on a 3 handle in early October !!, same for many other contracts, global deeflation is the word around at the moment, UK data was weaker than expected again too this morning #IWM looks to be breaking up (chart) #URA stocks taking a breather, correction glower, after huge move in 2023 Crude : grinding higher, U.S production on the increase again.. no need to replenish SPR this way... The U.S has added the equivalent of a new Venezuela in oil supply during Q4 2023, putting pressure on mid-east and other oil producers/Thread below USDollar not exactly rallying, CHF strength still there, EURCHF doesn't seem to get away from those .94-.9500 handle, AUD looks to be slowly breaking up, CAD similarly Fund managers most overweight on bonds in 15 years: BofA ( yahoo.com ) Fund managers most upbeat on stock market since January 2022 as S&P 500 nears record ( msn.com ) Shippers divert $35 billion in cargo from Red Sea ( cnbc.com ) The Costs the Houthis Are Poised to Inflict on the Global Economy | TIME Japan govt to raise long-term rate estimate to 1.9% in next year's budget -Nikkei ( msn.com ) The AI revolution is coming. Invest in $10,000 handbags | Nils Pratley | The Guardian Markets & Mayhem on X: "The US added the equivalent of a new Venezuela in oil supply during Q4, with less rigs producing more oil as technological efficiency ramps up This supply growth has exceeded expectations and furled OPEC's attempt to put a floor under prices, at least for now https://t.co/jHcaE5Ijxa " / X ( twitter.com ) OSINTdefender on X: "According to multiple U.S. Officials, Preparations are now underway for a Military Operation against the Houthi Terrorist Group in Yemen by the United States and other Countries involved with Operation Prosperity Guardian, with the Goal of the Operation being the Total… https://t.co/QimCsjPBIV " / X ( twitter.com ) Thomas Jordan Critical of CS Since Tidjane Thiam Era ( finews.asia ) Thomas Jordan, the long-time Chairman of the National Bank, reportedly wanted to intervene much earlier at Credit Suisse, according to a media report. But his concerns were brushed aside EU reaches agreement on new set of rules to manage migration and asylum | Reuters Why has Donald Trump been removed from the Colorado ballot and what happens next? ( msn.com ) Bear: Hut Burns, Chef Sails - Inside Paradeplatz Iceland volcano: Pollution warning for capital after eruption - BBC News Alastair Campbell's heroes and villains of 2023 - The New European Russell on the cusp of breaking up

The US military said it shot down 14 drones over the Red Sea launched from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen. The world's largest container line is diverting ships away from the Red Sea Not suggesting market should....but there you go : When does the market go 'ex-shelter' ??..market always goes ex energy, ex food.. etc . >>> Excluding Shelter, US consumer prices rose 1.4% over the last year, the 6th consecutive month below 2%. A huge week that was : U.S services were pretty good, while EU PMI in big trouble still, US retail sales holding up very well, China IP finally surprised to the topside (and PBOC added HUGE liquidity - $132bn - last time they did this stocks rallied huge) and the market played a full FED pivot on FOMC, adding more cuts in 2024, near 150bps all priced in by now, ECB similar, BoE slightly less >>>> we now have BoJ tomorrow (will they won't they, our plan was always they would-will but in Q1 2024, then we get BoK and BoC minutes On friday afternoon, FED's Bostic and Williams pushed back a little on rate cuts expectations for 2024 The Takeaways From Zelensky's Latest Trip to Washington and UKR/EU promises Financial markets had their best Fed day since 2009 , everything rallied, interest sensitive (REIT's etc), most shorted/hated index (ARKK) and small caps rallied most, last few weeks have been a nightmare for leverage and some HF's Pfizer most likely overpays $43 billion on small Cancer Drug Company that barely makes $2 billion a year Goldman has raised year-end 2024 S&P 500 index target from 4700 to 5100 , representing 8% upside from the current level. Decelerating inflation and Fed easing will keep real yields low and support a P/E multiple >19x. Since late October, real rates plummeted from 2.5% to 1.7%. Our prior year-end 2024 forecast assumed yields of 2.3% and a P/E of 18x. Upside risk exists to our above-consensus EPS estimate of 5% growth Yardeni : "The vigilantes will be back," said in an interview. "This is not an issue that will go away unless it's fixed. If anything, the deficit outlook is probably worse than is being anticipated." Ex-PBOC Adviser Says China Needs to Cut US Treasury Holdings - Securities Times >>> An orderly reduction in China’s holdings of US Treasuries is “necessary,” given the low coupon rates and expected rapid increase of US’s net debt abroad, former PBOC adviser Yu Yongding said at a Sunday event in China The US added another $2.6 trillion of debt between June 2023 and December 2023. $31.4 trillion to $34 trillion now Companies domiciled in Switzerland and Liechtenstein continued to repatriate billions from their subsidiaries abroad in 2022 #CHF Mind - boggling fact : Combined weighting of Magnificent Seven in MSCI All Country World Index is > all stocks from Japan, France, China, & UK Markets : Russell goes from worst to best within 8weeks, yet still 40% of companies in this index have negative earning 30-Year Mortgage Rate plummets to lowest level in 9 months The Mag 7 stocks are trading on a forward P/E of 33x, rest of SPX trades on 21x SPX500, DJ, QQQ pretty much all of them in overbougtht territories, not hard to see, many comments out there 'most stocks above their 200dma's' or RSI above 70+, signs that retail traders are all in etc >>> all this means is don't be greedy of what ever is owned ! still a lot of room for VALUE and quality dividend stocks to push on higher ! Most shorted/hated GS index had its best week ever, another HF long-short nightmare USD relatively quiet really, BoJ up next for some guidance, most likely doing nothing this time round (we expect them to tweak in Q1 2024, but by now this may be only a mini tweak..), USD lost some grouinds clearly after FOMC and more cuts priced in but nothing too dramatic >>> HF turned positions around quite aggressively last week and actually turned net short USD..humm.. Crude WTI found some love below/around $70 >>> markets got themselves too short commods ? #GDX, #SILJ should all be pretty interesting into 2024 , quite aLOT 'bullish' technical flags out there, nothing much confirmed yet though, waiting patiently! Fed Officials Shift Tone But Remain Wary of Markets’ Rate Cut Bets - Bloomberg Fed’s Williams, Bostic Push Back on Interest Rate Cut Talk for Early 2024 - Bloomberg China Should Trim US Treasury Holdings, Former PBOC Adviser Says - Bloomberg Bankruptcies soar as high rates and end of Covid aid hit businesses hard ( ft.com ) Red Sea Shipping Chaos as US Military Defends Threat to Commercial Vessels - Bloomberg UK and US navy vessels shoot down suspected attack drones in Red Sea | Yemen | The Guardian Israel finds large tunnel near Gaza border, raises questions about prewar intelligence | AP News PBoC carries out record liquidity injection - Central Banking Ole S Hansen on X: "COT on #commodities saw continued capitulation selling ahead of FOMC when the BCOM lost 3.2%. The net long collapsing by 46% to a three-year low at 274k. Net short positions held in nine led by #natgas, #palladium, #corn and #wheat while longs are concentrated in #crudeoil,… https://t.co/nVeoBa9GOe " / X ( twitter.com ) Markets gone too short commods ? Euro zone likely in recession, PMI surveys show | Reuters Blistering Treasuries Rally Quiets Deficit-Obsessed Vigilantes - Bloomberg The Takeaways From Zelensky's Latest Trip to Washington ( stratfor.com ) EU vows Ukraine to get aid despite veto by Hungary's Orban | Reuters Ex-FBI Intel Chief Who 'Investigated' Trump-Russia Collusion Gets 4 Years In Prison For Colluding With Russia | ZeroHedge you just couldn't make this up ! Reuters 2023 Year in Review Live updates: Rudy Giuliani ordered to pay nearly $150 million in damages ( cnn.com ) Pfizer concludes USD 43 billion acquisition of Seagen ( medicaldialogues.in ) Been in trouble ever sinc eafter COVID...seems a little desperado Michelle Mone admits she stands to benefit from £60m PPE profit - BBC News god damn lies, but why in the first place was the British government allowing 'their friends' to go and get these deals done at pretty much any price... Republican strategist Jeff Roe quits pro-DeSantis super PAC amid turmoil - POLITICO UBS Targets Hundreds of Bankers to Claw Back CS Bonuses ( finews.asia ) Not sot fast! Swiss multinationals continued to repatriate billions in 2022 - SWI swissinfo.ch

Another big option expiry quadruple witching day To Recap : FED was dovish clerly signalling cuts are coming in JUne 2024 (dop plots have total of 75bps in cuts, market has twice has much already priced in), Norges hiked 25bps, SNB, BoC trying to balance the risks of over-tightening, BoE and ECB stood pat, market trimmed wagers after Lagarde said officials didn't discuss cuts at all (''strong domectis price pressure??? really?? see PMI), the ECB hasten the end of its PEPP investments though, hawkish BoE warned of a 'way to go' on price pressures And here we are aleady.. : Villeroy: Next ECB move should be a cut, but first 'enjoy' the plateau Citi's Andrew Hollenhorst: The Fed's "bringing-forward of rate cuts is an indication of the difficulty in attempting to fine-tune policy to achieve a soft-landing, not an indication that one has already been achieved (as markets are pricing)." Manhattan rents fell for the first time in over two years , as the supply of empty apartments grew and renters held out for price cuts >>> welcome news for core CPI watchers (shelter) Hungary blocks €50bn of EU budget funds for Ukraine hours after agreement is reached to open membership talks (Hungary will have presidency at the end of 2024..) China’s move to pump a record amount of cash ($112bn) into the economy coincided with renewed support for the property sector , sending a more powerful stimulus message to investors after piecemeal approaches had left them disheartened Bundesbank’s Forecast for Germany: Inflation in Germany on the decline but no all-clear yet. Bundesbank expects HICP rate of 6.1% for 2023. Set to fall to 2.7% in 2024, 2.5% in 2025 and 2.2% in 2026 (and sloowgrowth=stagflation like) Markets : USD lower, given divergence from CB expectations (of course the FED hiked earlier than most and hiked more, so they would be the one cutting first...) U.S bonds have had one of the biggest short-term rallies....ever Rates : the danger here is as CB's turn dovish, the market has ALREADY done a lot fo the ground work and priced in 1.5% of cuts for next year from FED, ECB and BoE (not quite) The small-cap Russell 2,000 made a new 52-week high today after hitting a 52-week low just 48 days ago (huge change in rates..) ... nearly 50% of SPX components have an RSI greater than 70, most overbought in at least a decade, rotations continue into year-end!!, value shoudl do well if not much better, catch up coming PALL up nearly 20% this week driven by Fed pivot and Russian disruption threats XPT chart looking increasingly like breaking up, we stay long (low cost of prod etc) GS's HF VIP vs most short index is down sharply last few weeks, SHARPLY! chart available Fed’s ‘Transitory’ on Inflation Call Gets Some New Life … for Now - Bloomberg Congress passes $886 billion defense policy bill, Biden to sign into law ( cnbc.com ) Bundesbank’s Forecast for Germany: Falling inflation, but not yet time to sound the all-clear | Deutsche Bundesbank Villeroy: Next ECB move should be a cut, but first 'enjoy' the plateau | Reuters Hungary blocks €50bn of EU funding for Ukraine ( msn.com ) EU sidesteps Viktor Orbán to open membership talks with Ukraine | Ukraine | The Guardian Recession red-flags but Brits to splash the cash this Christmas ( cityam.com ) And BoE was still hawkish... French business activity contracts more than expected in December -flash PMI ( msn.com )  ( spglobal.com ) China’s Policy Combo Gives Investors Hope for a Market Rally - Bloomberg Manhattan rents fall for first time in over two years ( cnbc.com ) Can you have a healthy democracy without a common set of facts? ( economist.com ) Thefts of JLR Range Rovers Cause Insurance To Soar, Values To Plummet - Bloomberg Amazon to connect Kuiper internet satellites with laser links ( cnbc.com ) COP28: What Say the Banks? ( finews.asia ) This week, the Middle East hosted the 28th annual United Nations Climate Change Conference, commonly known as COP28. Despite disputes about the language used in the final agreement, global banks were still optimistic about the future of climate-related investment themes. XPT long -term - cost of production around $900... hold!

Powell, as friendly as he could be for markets, quick reaction with higher risk/equties, bonds ripped higher BIG time and USD down sharply particularly vs JPY, Gold etc, clear message they are done, only question is how far or how fast they cut in 2024, market already doing the job for them though, FED's dots show 75bps of cuts next year, the market as almost twice as much priced in, the market has 25's as the implied path, why not 50 ? Powell on the last mile of getting inflation down: "we kind of assume it will get harder from here, but so far it hasn't." Instead of pushing back against the rosy nature of the market’s 2024 forecast, Powell embraced it. Based on the market’s reaction, he might as well have screamed, “We did it!” This is quite something : one FOMC member sees 6 rate cuts in 2024 (four see 4 cuts; six see 3 cuts, five see 2 cuts; one sees 1 cut, and two see 0 cuts) - pretty wide spreads of views Norges hiked ! noting that policy rte is likely to be kept at 4.5% for some time ahead U.S : based on the Nov CPI and PPI, headline PCE inflation likely declined last month >>> 30year breakeven inflation making new lows now nearer to 2.22% Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings are trending higher, and Fed hikes continue to bite harder and harder on highly leveraged firms with little or no cash flows in tech, growth, and venture capital, Fed just helped! The percentage of commodities trading above their 200-day moving average has fallen to the lowest level since the Covid crash, crude lower, NatGas collapse lately are all signs of low demand, recession like >>>> time to step in! Global High Yield Bond ETFs saw an inflow of $11.6 billion in November, the highest monthly inflow ever recorded surpassing the previous best of $8.6 billion in April 2020, when everyone went 'all-in on the soft landing' COP28 ''So much diplomatic gymnastics in Dubai that the statement really bends over. "... transitioning away from fossil fuels in a just, orderly and equitable manner..." BUT "... recognizes that transitional fuels [a.k.a., natural gas] can play a role ... " Argentina has devalued its currency, the peso, by more than 50% (to 800 peso) as part of a package of large-scale spending cuts intended to address the country’s worst economic crisis in decades >>> that's not even where it is/was trading in the black market.. Pfizer is now below Covid panic lows , it's wiped out a decade of value and lost 50% since the vaccine peak The Swiss National Bank keeps borrowing costs unchanged and dropped a reference to possible further hikes after inflation slowed below its ceiling Markets : 2y UST yields are at same level they were 1y ago, 4.42% Crude slightly higher, commods higher (lower USD), Uranium has now surged pas $85 per pound for the 1st time since Jan 2008 EU50stoxx now most overbought since 1999 - from 2023 lows to 2023 highs within 6weeks...and together with SPX500, QQQ, Mag 7 etc - all overbought by now - Fed helping clearly, markets 'may' be getting ahead of themselves with cuts in 2024, for now it's all good, but beware if FOMO goes to sleep, anything that had been battered by higher rates is rallying hard S&P500 is now about 8% higher since the 1st Fed rate hike on March 17th 2022.. but going back to 1982, the SPX500 returned an average of nearky 20%... in the 12months after theFed funds peaked (GS). DJ 37K for 1st time ever, many 'all time highs' stories out there Vix on 12 is lowest levels since Nov 2019, that's partly why FOMO and thank you Powell EM markets should love Fed from here on Fed's Powell Leans Into Rate Cuts, Stoking Party on Wall Street - Bloomberg Yahoo Finance on X: "“We still have a ways to go,” Fed Chair Powell says on inflation. “No one is declaring victory. That would be premature.” https://t.co/mtaGUeuiLz " / X ( twitter.com ) Federal Reserve Board - Federal Reserve Board and Federal Open Market Committee release economic projections from the December 12-13 FOMC meeting Nr 7 of Saxo outrageous prediction (WHICH I actually love, JPY etc ) Japan’s Lucky 7% GDP growth rate affects yield-curve-control | Saxo Markets ( home.saxo ) Summary:  Japan was an economic powerhouse for many years before the bubble burst in 1991 and a long period of stagnation began. Corporate profits and wages were depressed, and an aging society meant labour supply shortages and a drag on consumption. But a new bottom is found as deflation ends and wages and private capex pick up, bringing productivity gains and fast-paced economic growth. Norway’s Final Hike Defying Global Shift Sparks Krone Surge ( yahoo.com ) Swiss central bank holds interest rate steady as inflation eases | Euronews Why are US stocks sluggish? Some blame a looming $5 trillion options expiration ( yahoo.com ) Oil Market Signals Bearishness in All Key Global Price Hubs - Bloomberg IEA says oil demand slowdown to persist in 2024 amid oversupply fears ( cnbc.com ) indeed (and NatGas and other commods) Gas prices fell 6% in November, leading inflation’s cooldown ( yahoo.com ) California orders spending freeze as deficit piles up ( sjvsun.com ) EU at critical juncture over aid to Ukraine ( cnbc.com ) With rate hikes likely done, Fed turns to timing of cuts | Reuters The Fed - December 13, 2023: FOMC Projections materials, accessible version ( federalreserve.gov ) Australia employment surges in November, jobless rate up as workforce grows | Reuters Javier Blas on X: "#COP28 COMMUNIQUÉ: So much diplomatic gymnastics in Dubai that the statement really bends over. "... transitioning away from fossil fuels [...] in a just, orderly and equitable manner..." BUT "... recognizes that transitional fuels [a.k.a., natural gas] can play a role ... " https://t.co/6a79ErpaGR " / X ( twitter.com ) Yahoo Finance on X: ""If we see rate cuts in the first half of next year it is because something bad has happened," J.P.Morgan Asset Management's Jack Manley says. "It is an indication that the economy has deteriorated in a certain way, unemployment has spiked, GDP has meaningfully decelerated..." https://t.co/yWM7LT3V1H " / X ( twitter.com ) Argentina’s new government devalues peso by more than 50% | Argentina | The Guardian Pfizer shares sink after it resets 2024 COVID expectations ( msn.com ) what a change of fortunes! lowest levels since 2014.. Pfizer Stock Sinks To 10-Year Low—Why Investors Have Soured On Covid-Era Giant ( msn.com ) Thats was pretty good The London Economic on X: "Sir Keir Starmer was doing stand-up in front of an increasingly exasperated Sunak at #PMQs, who was all but defeated when Chris Bryant landed the killer blow 👇💥 https://t.co/9cknd7FZXy " / X ( twitter.com ) Tesla recalls nearly all vehicles sold in US to fix system that monitors drivers using Autopilot ( qz.com ) Goldman Sachs Asset Management Announces Liquidation of Goldman Sachs ActiveBeta® Paris-Aligned Climate U.S. Large Cap Equity ETF | Business Wire ESG was just aphenomenal pipe dreams for large institutions, fantastic marketing tool... not sure about the rest... hope oyu never got caught in this since we talked about it years ago Remote work and return-to-office: What's next for workers and bosses? ( cnbc.com ) USDJPY ... on our way to 130JPY

All ears on Powell tonight, a load of data, quadruple witching Friday - so busy 72hours coming up for markets, ahead of Xmas holiday season, equity markets rallied lead by QQ higher yesterday as crude collapsed another 4% (NatGas too lately..) and U.S CPI came in as expected >>> markets currently have about 1.10% of rate cuts priced in by Dec 2024, 1.25% for ECB, 90bps for BoE and about 0.7% for SNB >>> Markets not quite aligned to Powell or vice versa, who's right, might Powell want to adjust expectations ? we shall see, I bet he wishes he could say as little as possible today and keep options open on both sides, markets though have decided 2months ago that inflation is softer and thuis rate cut expectations priced in China’s top leaders vowed to make industrial policy their top economic priority next year , a disappointment for investors hoping for consumer-targeted stimulus. The statement from the annual economic work conference called for a focus on “technological innovation.” Language on “appropriately stepped up” fiscal measures echoed an earlier meeting Japan business mood rises for 3rd straight quarter on stronger demand . BOJ Tankan survey shows growing optimism among large companies COP28 president hails climate deal as 'historic' German Ruling Coalition Seals Deal on Revised 2024 Budget "Show me the incentive, and I will show you the outcome. The basic rule of incentives is that you get what you were rewarded for. If you have a dumb incentive system, you get dumb outcomes."-Charlie Munger U.S CPI was 3.1% yesterday, off the peak of 9.,1% in June 2022 Microsoft targets nuclear to power AI operations - WSJ Markets : Crude WTI sub $70 down 4% yesterday - Brent challenging the 200week average $74. NatGas also down 35% since late October! Equity markets, QQQ loves low/steady rate, lower crude prices, and low(er) VIX-vols creates more buying, we know how it works and/or how it can work in reverse (beware tonight, if Powell for some reasons comes out hawkish, stating strong consumers, and tight employment level, this would probably shake a few long Eq in short-term, all about 2024 expectations though) USD not doing much, in fact FX asleep at the wheel to be honest UST 10's big picture holidng the 4.00-4.10% area that we mentioned few weeks back Nr.6 of Saxo's outrageous predictions for 2024 and beyond Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. wins the 2024 US Presidential Election | Saxo Group ( home.saxo ) Summary:  In 2024, for the first time in the history of the USA, a third-party candidate, Robert F. Kennedy Jr, wins the US presidential election. His populist platform against the war-mongering Democrats and against the corporate elites resonates with both disgruntled traditional Democratic and Trump supporters. A new political era in the USA begins with the dramatic pivot away from plutocracy, as voters demand an end to drastic inequality and injustice and the end of forever wars. SAXO webinar - FX options - feel free to register Upcoming events and webinars | Saxo Group ( home.saxo ) they have a much improved FX option offering now Inflation Report Is Enough to Sustain Wall Street's Hopes for a 2024 Fed Pivot - Bloomberg Surveillance: Fed ‘Pivot Party’ Rages On With In-Line Inflation Print The easing-in-2024 case stays alive, and now everyone waits to hear from Powell Nearly 40% of U.S. homes are mortgage-free, census shows ( axios.com ) Japan business mood rises for 3rd straight quarter on stronger demand - Nikkei Asia China exports deflation as home demand for steel and autos low - Nikkei Asia German Ruling Coalition Seals Deal on Revised 2024 Budget ( yahoo.com ) UN General Assembly demands immediate Gaza ceasefire ( msn.com ) COP28 president hails climate deal as 'historic' | Reuters Is it ? Australia plans to halve migrant intake, tighten student visa rules - CNA ( channelnewsasia.com ) UK lawmakers vote in favor of the Rwanda migration bill in a much-needed respite for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak ( qz.com ) Record low turnout as Hong Kong votes in ‘patriots’-only election | Hong Kong | The Guardian Argentina devalues peso, cuts spending to treat fiscal deficit 'addiction' | Reuters UBS Real Estate Costs Jump After CS Takeover ( finews.asia ) CS cadres lost $1.2 billion in deferred bonuses - Inside Paradeplatz ''' Peanuts in view of the more than 25 billion bonuses that the CS had withheld from its bosses in the decade before its demise?''' NatGas

U.S CPI coming up (expectations is +0.3%, core 4%) + sizeable UST bond auctions, FOMC next up , and both ECB and BoE, SNB all expected to be on hold >>> clearly there is a risk that the FED 'rebalances' expectations of rate cuts for 2024 as market focus has clearly shifted from UST supply to inflation. Stocks and bonds seeing dead inflation ahead >>> in many way, for the market to be right, you need most or every FOMC members to be wrong (based on their recent comments) GOLDMAN: “.. Recent inflation data have been an encouraging surprise even to our optimistic expectations, and our forecast path for year-on-year core PCE inflation has fallen somewhat as a result. .. We are therefore pulling our forecast of the first cut forward to 2024Q3.” Despite the reaction which was mostly due to the unemployment rate retreating to 3.7% last month, it is clear that job growth is slowing. 3-month moving average of private payrolls is now down to 145K China's pork deflation is pretty stunning , with pork CPI falling 31.8% year-on-year and dragging down overall CPI in November by about 0.58 ppt - Oil prices could crash 50% if OPEC+ lets output rise and doesn't extend cuts through 2024 , Citi commodities research chief says, Oil forecasts have flipped. Forecasts now show a significantly oversupplied market for 2024 - Crunch time for Ukraine as the West wavers . The next week could be critical for the country’s future. Having promised open-ended support, the US and EU are struggling to provide new funding -Occidental’s Debt Binge Leaves Investors Exposed to OPEC - Germany cannot support COP28 draft deal, foreign minister says - Stefanik Targets Harvard And MIT Presidents—‘Totally Unfit And Untenable’—As GOP Campaign Grows >> Universities shoudl focus on Research and teaching, not politics ! - "I've got some advice for the young: If you've got anything you really want to do, don't wait until you're 93" --- Charlie Munger Markets : Consenss if for equity markets to rally gently into January  barring a major shock from today's CPI report anfd tomorrow's FOMC VIX on the floor, realized vols on the lows, self-fulfiling in equity markets, the lower it goes the more systematic leverage is deployed, and buy-the-dip is automatic >>>>>>> as always beware when/IF it reverses.. USD pausing - CROSSJPY's higher again as BoJ ignals no move in Dec (was alsways goiong ot be the case that only Jan owas in play) SPX500 grinding higher still, low vols, systematic buying etc (and/or reverse ! if-when vols tick higher on some sort of surprise highe CPI, if so the market will quickly speculate that Powell's tone will be hawkish on Wednesday Natural Gas continues to get decimated and has declined by 33% since its October 27th high and has now fallen to a 6-month low, good news! so why are gas prices going up in the UK in Jan ???... can we assume the only reasons it must be coming from renewable costs?...yeps,but hang on politicians told us green energy woul dbring prices down ?? Deficit countries form ‘Rome Club’ to negotiate trade terms | Saxo Group ( home.saxo ) No.5 of Saxo's oputrageous predictions : Summary:  The sustained and worsening divergence in current accounts between a group of surplus and deficit countries is a result of managed currencies and is not sustainable long-term. As the US debt situation has become uncontrollable, a group of six deficit countries form a ‘Rome Club’ to cooperate on reducing deficits by collectively negotiating new world trade terms with the surplus countries. We see gold, silver and cryptocurrencies doing very well in an unpredictable environment for the world’s reserve currency and the unsustainable current accounts among deficit countries Board of Changemakers: H.E. Al-Rumayyan, Dalio, Dimon, Fraser, Motsepe and more - #FII7 Day 1 - YouTube The Fed Doesn’t Need to Cut Rates. Treasury Debt Management Has the Same Effect. - Barron's ( barrons.com ) - must admit, fwiw! I tend to agree London's financial district opens US offices amid post-Brexit charm offensive | Reuters Oil Prices Could Crash 50% If OPEC+ Lets Output Rise in 2024: Citi ( businessinsider.com ) Russia-Ukraine war: The West wavers on Ukraine ( afr.com ) Occidental’s Debt Binge Leaves Investors Exposed to OPEC - Bloomberg >>> “Occidental, which trades under the ‘OXY’ ticker, could well change its symbol to ‘OPEC’ — giving a more accurate reflection of what shareholders are buying” Germany cannot support COP28 draft deal, foreign minister says | Reuters Novo Nordisk is the 2023 Yahoo Finance Company of the Year I’ve spent 40 years making forecasts. My confidence in them is at rock-bottom ( telegraph.co.uk ) whats new? but good that someone said it ! '''I’ve spent 40 years making forecasts. My confidence in them is at rock-bottom, models can be amazingly reliable, or little better than a guess0''' Special counsel asks US supreme court to rule on Trump’s claim of immunity | Donald Trump | The Guardian Stefanik Targets Harvard And MIT Presidents—‘Totally Unfit And Untenable’—As GOP Campaign Grows ( forbes.com ) Rishi Sunak Covid inquiry live: Eat Out to Help Out was safe and designed to save jobs - Sunak - BBC News too many lies!