WEF : Lagarde, Bostic (in the U.S though), SNB's Jordan up later again (will he confirm yesterday's comments that weakened CHF?) , Pakistan PM said he might leave early now (airstrikes with Iran) Lagarde has blamed markets for holding up the ECB’s efforts to tame inflation. Bets on aggressive rate cuts are a distraction that complicates the battle to control runaway price rises, the European Central Bank president warned OpenAI’s Sam Altman says human-level AI is coming but will change world much less than we think Pakistan (WSJ): Carried out airstrikes in Iranian territory killing Pakistani militants there; the action was tit-for-tat retaliation after Iran hit a Jihadi group in Pakistan on Tuesday Tesla slashed car prices again — this time in Europe . Consumers around the world increasingly do not want to pay full price for Teslas, once the leader of the EV market The Hang Seng Index's P/E is now below the Nasdaq's P/B . Those two valuation ratios should not even be anywhere close one another/Thread Google CEO tells employees to expect more job cuts this year Markets : Yields up a little again yesterday, ont eh back of UK's inflation data and US retail sales, UST 10's 4.10-4.20 big level on way up, if we go through this, we are in for more risk-off into month-end, further correcting moves from Nov >>> Fed March cut, now down to 50% probability USDollar follows bonds, and eventually so do equities, broadly speaking >>> January tend to correct moves from Q4, particularly when too consensus and now Central Bank's trying to walk some of those early rate cuts priced in SPX500 4800 double top, corrective activity down to key 4'650 key med-term levels #EURCHF #GBPCHF #USDCHF on their way up, correction higher, gone too far in 2023, overdone, now the CB probably ok with it, given low inflation in CH, decent probabilities looking at actual levels, CB stance, inflation and a decent carry particularly vs USD if you are a $ bull Swiss Franc Sold After Jordan Hints SNB Shift Underway ( poundsterlinglive.com ) Maersk says winter weather, Red Sea disruption cause congestion ( msn.com ) Israel's president and the OpenAI CEO will take part in Davos on Day 3 of the World Economic Forum ( yahoo.com ) Russia-Ukraine war live: Red Sea grain exports ‘approaching pre-war levels’ ( msn.com ) Lagarde blames markets for ECB’s failure to get inflation under control ( msn.com ) Exclusive: India could ease China investment curbs if border stays calm | Reuters Retail sales December 2023: Sales rose 0.6% in December, topping expectations for holiday ( cnbc.com ) David Ingles on X: "You've probably heard Chinese stocks are cheap. This chart takes that to a whole new level. The Hang Seng Index's P/E is now below the Nasdaq's P/B. Those two valuation ratios should not even be anywhere close one another. Pretty wild. https://t.co/3jjYksSdOw " / X ( twitter.com ) Here Are All The Prominent Conservatives Telling DeSantis To Drop Out ( forbes.com ) Tesla cuts prices in Europe after doing so in China ( qz.com ) Good for consumers, not #TSLA share price Google CEO tells employees to expect more job cuts in 2024 - The Verge OpenAI's Sam Altman: AGI coming but is less impactful than we think ( cnbc.com ) Apple (AAPL) to Sell Watches Without Blood Oxygen Feature - Bloomberg Is Kim Jong Un Preparing for War? - 38 North: Informed Analysis of North Korea Not very cheery I know Plug Power Plunges On $1 Billion Stock Offering Plan ( msn.com ) Bottom line, many of these smaller companies cannot borrow at these rates, thus will issue equity and dilute shareholders, this stock, just an example, is down 80pct form the highs, small caps etc 53 years of CS, yesterday Big Farewell Party at the Uetlihof – Inside Paradeplatz Bye bye Richie! HSI - Hang Seng - are you feeling brave ?

As expected.. and after ECB guys on Monday, Governor Waller’s prepared remarks were not as dovish as the current market pricing on rate cuts implied. He stated that the Fed can lower interest rates ‘methodically and carefully’ this year if inflation continues moderating. “Methodically and carefully” could be considered as quarterly rather than every meeting China GDP 5.2% up slightly from 4.9% >>> markets didn't really trust this data and sent local shares and HSI down 3% again and China's population records second straight annual decline. Pace accelerates as dwindling workforce creates vexing policy challenges UK inflation rose to 4% in Dec , expectations were all for a slightly softer data >> Gilt yields spike as markets push back on the expectations of 6 rate cuts in 2024 -Houthis to be reclassified as terrorist group - US, Pakistan says children killed in Iranian strike Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg to be deposed in Texas facial recognition case Hyundai is offering Americans cash to buy its EV s. Buyers of three Hyundai models will get $7,500 in cash bonuses until Jan. 31 (if you can't sell them, discount them, good thing is, it will bring down prices!..) CSI : Chinese Stocks fell to a new 5y low today of 3260 and have now declined about 45% since the high in mid Feb 2021 As discussed recently, this was from the BofA FMS in Dec and looks worryingly wrong : An All-Time High 91% of Fund Managers expect lower short-term interest rates during the next 12 months Markets : Bond markets still the lead, and most important 'ingredient' for risk - still >> MOVE index (interest volatility) is key as ever for 2024, note both bonds adn equity softer, together with higher USDollar >>> 5y5y has moved back up 20bps in Jan >> if the Ferd wanted to correct the strong disinflation trend from late last year, they are succeeding SPX500 double top 4'800 - the 'shorts' can work against that level and equivalent USDollar higher into 2nd Jan, on softer bonds/eq/light riskoff/corrective action from the move since Oct/Nov 2023 Beware reversal/corrective action in 2nd half of January! >>> both ECB and Waller (and higher UK inflation) pushing back on too early and too hasty cuts that are priced in for 2024 Nick Timiraos on X: "Fed governor Chris Waller: Rate cuts are coming into view but the process should be “carefully calibrated and not rushed.” As long as growth is fine, “I see no reason to move as quickly or cut as rapidly” as the Fed has in past cutting cycles. https://t.co/Noyjq02VeM " / X ( twitter.com ) Treasury yields edge higher as investors monitor data and Fed comments ( cnbc.com ) Pakistan says children killed in Iranian strike - BBC News Houthis to be reclassified as terrorist group - US ( rte.ie ) China's 2023 GDP shows patchy economic recovery, raises case for stimulus | Reuters China's population records second straight annual decline - Nikkei Asia UK Conservative Party deputy chairmen resign after Rwanda law vote | Reuters Sunak in further politic trouble, could this bring this general election a little quicker than expected ? Apple tops Samsung global smartphone sales for first time ( qz.com ) Meta CEO Zuckerberg to be deposed in Texas facial recognition case ( cnbc.com ) Light Science Technologies lights up growth and revenue ( thearmchairtrader.com ) Hyundai is offering Americans $7,500 to buy its EVs ( qz.com ) NASDAQ - corrective action to 16'250 area ? seems far away, but just to show the extent of the move since Nov dovish, disinflationary talks from CB and huge easing of financil conditions DAX - plenty of room to correct to...15'750 area ?

Rates Spark: The ECB pushes back , Chief Economist Philip Lane initiated the renewed pushback already over the weekend, when he cautioned against recalibrating policy too early, ECB's Holzman ''we shouldn't count on rate cuts at all in 2024'.. Fed's Waller speaks later on today (he was one of the key cause of markets turning dovish in November).. BofA FM survey : ''a record 91% of investors expect short-term rates to be lower in the next 12months, from 87% in Dec'' and that is the big risk >> 150bps etc a lot priced in already IMF's Gopinath ''exuberance has made the soft landing challenge harder Iowa Caucus results: Trump wins majority, Ramaswamy drops out Houthi militants hit a US-owned container vessel with a missile in the Gulf of Aden . Gibraltar Eagle, carrying steel products, suffered limited damage. Washington warned its merchant ships to avoid the area. PM Rishi Sunak told Parliament that the UK wants to reduce tensions and its air strikes are “self-defense.” Ra'anana: One dead and 12 injured in terror attack near Tel Aviv, Israel's emergency services say War of words after Taiwan election highlights the intractable divide over the island's fate Africa’s biggest oil refinery has begun production in Nigeria after a yearslong wait 'Both the number and percentage of S&P 500 companies issuing negative EPS guidance for Q4 2023 are above their 5-year and 10-year averages.' "The era of the peace dividend is over." UK's Grant Shapps urges "all allied and democratic nations" to ensure their defence budgets are growing , warning of growing conflict over the next five years Iran’s Revolutionary Guard deployed in Yemen Maersk hopes international interventions, naval presence will allow Red Sea transit to return Markets : EURCHF : 9y ago , it fell out of bed, as SNB walked away from the 1.2000 floor SPX500 4800 double top for now, stay cautious USDollar getting some traction USDJPY initially over last 2weeks, AUDUSD breaks down through key support yesterday, keep an eye on USDCHF even (positive momentum while above 0.8550+), EURUSD sub 1.0925 area is bearish too , USDCNH testing 7.20 again too.. ECB pushing back on early rate cuts Priced in already, a LOT priced in the U.S too and elsewhere, 10's UST back to 4% TAKE some/any charts from early November 2023 ! we are correcting Rates Spark: The ECB pushes back | Article | ING Think Are More S&P 500 Companies Issuing Negative EPS Guidance Than Average for Q4? ( factset.com ) Maersk hopes international interventions, naval presence will allow Red Sea transit to return ( msn.com ) Coming flood of US Treasury issuance unsettles some investors after blazing rally | Reuters Iowa Caucus results: Trump wins majority, Ramaswamy drops out – Iowa State Daily Five takeaways from the Iowa GOP caucuses | The Hill Switzerland marks start of China’s ‘high-level exchange’ with Europe - SWI swissinfo.ch Michael Pettis on X: "SCMP: "Some of China’s most prominent tycoons are committed to reining in debt, and are also eying the overseas market for increased growth this year, despite Beijing’s attempt to play up domestic economic prospects and calls for more private investment." https://t.co/okKlL3zKao " / X ( twitter.com ) Russia dismisses Ukraine peace plan talks in Davos - SWI swissinfo.ch Good reasons to believe that all parties involved should be around the table Houthi missile hits US-owned ship off Yemen coast - BBC News Ra'anana: One dead and 12 injured in terror attack near Tel Aviv, Israel's emergency services say | World News | Sky News Iran’s Revolutionary Guard deployed in Yemen ( yahoo.com ) War of words after Taiwan election highlights the intractable divide over the island's fate ( qz.com ) Lurching Avobis: Boss in a private jet, KB with a large loan – Inside Paradeplatz Africa’s biggest oil refinery begins production in Nigeria with the aim of reducing need for imports ( qz.com ) 2024 Emmy awards: Succession and The Bear win big at glittering ceremony | Evening Standard Elon Musk wants more control of Tesla, seeks 25% voting power ( cnbc.com ) Why..? SPX500 - all eq indices have fairly similar picture USDCHF - bullish while above 0.8550+ Yesterday's chart - pretty clear - AUDUSD

WEF : that time of the year where all the grandees meet in Davos U.S potential fiscal boost, it's election year after all. Lawmakers backing a $70bn tax break deal (not that big in reality..) evenly split between businesses and child tax credit, should get support across house, but may bring back talks of stick inflation >> although after soft PPI on Friday, markets pricing in now 160bps of cuts in 2024, big banks and other forecasters all debating whether 1st cut in March or June The annual Core PPI increased 1.8% in the same period, below the November reading and analysts' estimate of 2% and 1.9%, respectively JPN 2y yields hit ZERO, R.I.P 'normalization' Swiss inflation is now below 2% target, at 1.7% > >> room for CHF to weaken Morgan Stanley's leading indicators for M&A activity shows the majority of indicators flashing green. HY issuance is up 89% y/y, liquidity is improving and corporate cash levels are higher. Deal announcements already inflected up +35% y/y; expect announcements to continue accelerating and completions to follow. Two years of extraordinarily weak M&A activity should drive up activity levels off a low base as CEO confidence builds Taiwan’s Election Isn’t a Disaster for Xi Jinping—Unless He Makes It One UK's Post Office scandal: TV drama writer warned 'nobody would watch' programme Sovereign wealth funds and state pension providers are among investors telling money managers they’ll only commit in their upcoming fund raises if their capital tied up in old funds is released , according to people with knowledge of the matter Markets : Corn closed last week at its lowest price in 3years, and cocoa hitting prices not seen in about 45years The Mag 7 now have a combined market cap of more than $10 trillion. Ten years ago it was just over $1 trillion. They represent ~25% of the S&P 500, nothing new but still, NIKKEI 34y highs (zero rates and a weak currency..) Bonds looking for more, long-end rallies on softer U.S PPI on Friday USDJPY dipped on PPI but right back 145+, metals liked softer rates overall and equity always appreciate softer rates! Stock Markets: Big Bank earnings point to a grim season ( cnbc.com ) Is the Stock Market Open Today? These Are the Trading Hours for Martin Luther King Jr. Day. ( msn.com ) US Congress Unveils Temporary Spending Bill to Avert Shutdown ( yahoo.com ) Large Backers of Private Equity Are Asking For Their Money Back ( yahoo.com ) Who's who at WEF and what it tells us about the world - SWI swissinfo.ch Martin Luther King's eloquent explanation of racism is as important today as it was in 1967 | indy100 Bond Traders Reload Fed-Cut Wagers After PPI Data: Markets Wrap - SWI swissinfo.ch Taiwan’s Election Isn’t a Disaster for Xi—Unless He Makes It | TIME Taiwan loses another ally as Nauru breaks ties after China critic wins election ( msn.com ) Middle East crisis live: Houthi missile fired at USS Laboon shot down; British PM to address MPs about missile strikes in Yemen ( theguardian.com ) Ukraine and Switzerland urge countries to support peace plan in Davos - SWI swissinfo.ch Rubio throws support behind Trump in 2024 in snub to DeSantis | The Hill Almost half of Haley supporters say they would vote for Biden over Trump: Iowa poll | The Hill Iowa Caucus 2024: Trump, Haley and other 2024 Republicans rally before crucial contest ( msn.com ) The president appoints modern France’s youngest prime minister ( economist.com ) JPM's annual healthcare conference: Here's what's next for GLP-1s and the weight loss market ( yahoo.com ) Frederik X: Denmark has new King as Queen Margrethe II abdicates in historic moment for Europe’s oldest monarchy | World News | Sky News - Denmark’s King Frederik X takes throne after Margrethe abdicates | Denmark | The Guardian Iceland volcano latest: Lava inside town - after new crack opens in 'worst-case scenario' | World News | Sky News this is just insane Post Office scandal: TV drama writer warned 'nobody would watch' programme | UK News | Sky News such a sad, sad, yet great story ! EURUSD - holding up so far, key short-term levs around here 1.0925-50

Taiwan is holding its presidential election on Saturday , a race that China has called a choice between war and peace Yesterday's US CPI has the potential to signal an end to the consolidative phase, key is core inflation which is still 3.9% (headline up slightly 3.4%), freight and crude oil prices in focus with geopolitical tensions in ME >>> Focus next week shift to the real economy with retail sales, industrial output, and housing starts, bonds rallied post CPI on perception this data perhaps an outlier The FED (and other CB's) wants all of us to know that inflation is going down and the fight against inflation is done...because the reality is that economies cannot live/endure this level of financing cost for long, particularly governments spending, and this crushing of vol/liquidity adds from CB's kind of blocks out the horrors and the risks in the rest of the world Møller-Maersk chief warns Red Sea shipping disruption may last for months U.S. and China keep a close watch as Taiwan heads to the polls WEF 2024 starts on Monday Hertz to sell off one-third of its EVs, replace with gas cars, driven by higher costs and soft demand FED's commercial bank credit card rates have jumped to 21.5%, highest in history Brexit: New report suggests UK £311bn worse off by 2035 due to leaving EU PBOC may cut policy rate further in coming weeks, pro-growth policies to lead to investment-led rebound in 2024 - Citi White House says U.S. Ukraine assistance has ‘ground to a halt’; Zelenskyy says ‘global freedom’ is at stake BoJ considering lowering forecasts for growth, inflation >>> chances of a change in YCC diminishing, JPY softer helping Nikkei Markets : JGB 2year yields back to a big fat ZERO UK rates market now has 135bps of rate cuts price in by end of 2024 Crude, NatGas prices and metals higher on ME tensions, typical shor-term reaction Equity prices under slight pressure ahead of weekend (geopolitical risk) and ever so slightly firmer U.S core inflation, SPX4800 Jan 2022 top + valuations stretched FXland : Not a whole lot to add, markets positioned short USD, any further signs of short-covering would come from USDJPY, particularly with BoJ lowering expectations and/or on a decent risk off move. EURCHF (chart) maybe be starting to correct higher #CHF - generally less corporate hedging earlier in year & one would imagine many hedgers not particularly interested to lock in a rate on all time highs CHF levels.. BTC ETF's available on platform now, please ask if any interest U.S., British launch massive retaliatory strike against Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen ( msn.com ) Houthis Vow More Ship Attacks After US, UK Airstrikes in Yemen: Live Updates - Bloomberg Q&A: Who are the Houthis, and why are we involved in Yemen? - CityAM BOJ considers lowering FY2024 inflation outlook to mid-2% range - Jiji - CNA ( channelnewsasia.com ) How has the ETF story impacted Bitcoin price action so far this year? | Forexlive Buy the rumor and don't bother too much about the fact ? In Taiwan's election Saturday, who are the 3 candidates trying to become president? - ABC News ( go.com ) Ukraine and Russia say they want peace but they're nowhere near talks ( cnbc.com ) What to watch from big bank earnings ( yahoo.com ) Hertz to sell off one-third of its EVs, replace with gas cars ( yahoo.com ) Panama Canal drought moves Maersk to start using land bridge for cargo ( cnbc.com ) First US listed ETFs holding spot Bitcoin start trading today | Saxo Group ( home.saxo ) US food prices for these items are driving up grocery bills the most ( qz.com ) Nick Timiraos on X: "The CPI and the PCE have opened up a more notable wedge with recent readings, and early translations of CPI to PCE for December suggest core PCE running around 0.2%. The wedge suggests the “last mile” might be easier for PCE than CPI so far" / X ( twitter.com ) Taiwan elections: U.S., China keep a close watch as Taiwan heads to polls ( cnbc.com ) France's new government announced with only one major change at the foreign ministry | AP News Swiss Portfolio Manager, Gefion Capital Launches Gold-Denominated Note to Invest in Monetary Metals' Gold Leases and Bonds ( prnewswire.com ) Swiss government accused of massive online surveillance - SWI swissinfo.ch Marc Faber's Stark Warning: "Economic Winter is Coming" - Gloom Boom Doom by Marc Faber Dr Doom! Brexit: New report suggests UK £311bn worse off by 2035 due to leaving EU | Politics News | Sky News Post Office lied and threatened BBC over Horizon whistleblower - BBC News WEF Davos Summit: Disinformation 'Biggest Global Risk' in 2024 ( voanews.com ) EURCHF - maybe beginning to correct higher have a wonderful weekend team PVM

The current market consensus is for inflation heading towards the Fed's target of 2%, so definitely no more FED hikes, therefore we get a nice soft landing, with no recession/small one only maybe, which means the FED will cut soon and all will be well and good for the economy (all this should be put relative to what is priced in already - say 150bps of cuts starting in March >>> got ever so slightly pushed back last few days ahead of CPI this afternoon (NFP was stronger, ISM services weaker so OCO), before Covid - SPX500 was 3'250 - currently testing the 4'810 area highs of early January 2022 U.S primary : Nikki Haley has momentum Fed's Williams (A list) said monetary policy is tight enough to nudge inflation down to the Fed’s 2% goal but policymakers need more evidence before they can “dial back” interest rates The federal budget deficit totalled $509 billion in the first quarter of fiscal year 2024 , the Congressional Budget Office estimates. That amount is $87 billion more than the deficit recorded during the same period last fiscal year: Although revenues this year were $83 billion (or 8 percent) higher, outlays rose more —by $170 billion (or 12 percent) >>> a 2trn annualized deficit in an economy at full employment.... The wealthiest 10% of U.S. households now own nearly 93% of the stock market/Axios >> it will continue as long as profits are privatized and losses are socialized! Blinken: There will be consequences for continued attacks in the Red Sea Maersk switches liner service from Panama Canal to land bridge SEC approves first spot BTC ETF's The U.N. Security Council on Wednesday demanded Yemen's Houthis immediately end attacks on ships in the Red Sea and cautioned against escalating tensions while implicitly endorsing a U.S.-led task force that has been defending vessels Big tech is sliding down Glassdoor's ranking of top employers FT - Largest U.S banks set to log sharp rise in bad loans, Citigroup at risk of quarterly loss after charges come in far higher than initially disclosed Markets : Eagerly awaiting U.S CPI, expectations nudged up from 0.2 to 0.3% lately, it's when it all looks rosy and bullish that you should consider a hedge #timeforahedgingstrategy Bond auction this week also been pretty good, nothing much to worry about anything, same as above! SPX500 testing those highs from very early 2021 around 4800+ USDollar mostly bid vs JPY only so far, other pairs pretty stable-nothing much to see here, the USD bulls wants to print sub 1.0850 EUR, sub 0.665 AUD, CAD 1.3450+ CNH 7.20+, CHF 0.8550+ to continue with USD higher (bonds and therefore risk key as usual) The largest week of earnings is Jan. 29th through Feb 2nd, when 32% of the S&P 500 by weight will report (such as AAPL, AMZN, META, and GOOGL). Exp are for SPX quarterly EPS to grow +4.3% y/y, driven by REITs, Utilities, Comm Services, and Info Tech. While SPX 2023e css estimates have remained largely unch since June at $221, css is exp +11% EPS growth in ’24 to $245. NDX estimates have continued to move higher after a beat & raise from many Mag-7 names last qtr (only TSLA missed on EPS), as well as Semis seeing EPS estimates increase in anticipation of positive inflection in pricing after a period of peak inventories. InteractivePolls on X: "📊 2024 New Hampshire GOP Primary Trump: 39% (-3) Haley: 32% (+12) Christie: 12% (-2) Ramaswamy: 8% (=) DeSantis: 5% (-4) -- Undecided: 5% [Change vs November] CNN/UNH | 919 LV | January 4-8 https://t.co/CGjdG9YmiE https://t.co/4AschyPpMg " / X ( twitter.com ) SEC approves first spot bitcoin ETFs in boost to crypto advocates ( ft.com ) OK it's done - finally But Apple pulls Binance and other crypto apps from India App Store ( qz.com ) And don't forget What are ETFs? ( qz.com ) ETFs: Easy trade, easy short Citigroup at risk of quarterly loss after disclosing charges ( cnbc.com ) Monthly Budget Review: December 2023 | Congressional Budget Office ( cbo.gov ) Australia trade balance trounces expectations in Nov as imports tumble By Investing.com China and India can't wean themselves off coal anytime soon ( cnbc.com ) UN Security Council demands Houthis stop Red Sea attacks | Reuters Holger Zschaepitz on X: "Ownership of equities suggests that US democratic shareholder capitalism is more myth than reality: While it's true that a record high 58% of American households do own stocks via mutual funds or as individual shares, in the aggregate the amount of stock most of these folks own… https://t.co/e8RJ3bCoiT " / X ( twitter.com ) Big tech fell on Glassdoor's 2024 ranking of top companies ( qz.com ) Maersk switches liner service from Panama Canal to land bridge | Seatrade Maritime ( seatrade-maritime.com ) Japan's Fujitsu faces questioning over British Post Office scandal | Reuters It took 15+ years... OpenAI launches GPT store for AI tools ( qz.com ) Six reasons why Switzerland is one of the most globalised countries - SWI swissinfo.ch Politics in Paris? Prime Minister or not, France is fed up ( blick.ch ) The media, including Blick, are making a big deal out of it. A 34-year-old prime minister, the youngest in the history of the Fifth Republic. But the French? Are you passionate about this appointment behind closed doors, very Parisian? Unsure. Geography Facts That Will Have You Questioning Your Place On Earth - Explored Planet Bet a few of those facts you didn't know !!? Vestas blade snaps at RWE offshore wind farm in UK North Sea | Windpower Monthly

SEC says it did not yet approve bitcoin ETF, X account was compromised, 2 FA ??.. >>> going to be a year full of mis and disinformation, AI pictures and so on ! particularly during this biggest ever democratic year, looking at the already 'nasty' Biden vs Trump too, it's going to be a very busy year for media.. Antony Blinken made another push for Israel to limit civilian casualties in Gaza and sought to focus on its relationships with Arab nations. There are “real opportunities” to build post-war ties that will help keep Israel secure, the US official told Foreign Minister Israel Katz in Tel Aviv European unemployment drops to a record low of 6.4% in Nov Norway poised to open vast ocean area to controversial deep-sea mining Apple faces epochal moment with looming antitrust scrutiny Saudi Arabia sells $12 billion of debt in its largest borrowing abroad since 2017 China satellite launch causes pre-election political storm in Taiwan US credit card balances hit a new record as delinquencies rise in the background German train drivers start 3-day strike, bringing rail travel to near halt Gabriel Attal, nicknamed ‘baby Macron’, becomes youngest ever French prime minister at 34 Markets : NIkkei up, HSI down (the or at least one of the contrarian trade for 2024 is China eq), other equity markets awaiting U.S CPI, Speculators have built the largest Nasdaq long position in history according to CFTC data U.S NatGas (was on the lows) but has now rallied nearly 50% since mid Dec USDJPY regained 145 pretty easily, USD a little firmer ahead of U.S CPI, a slightly firmer print is the risk with positioning long risk, bonds and short USD still from Dec 10's UST' 4% - 3.80-4.10 range last few weeks BTC market will get its SEC approval, most likely, but the ramp up is probably most likely already done - let's see the aftermath/price action of the ETF approval SEC says it did not yet approve bitcoin ETF, X account was compromised ( cnbc.com ) Quel joke Bob Elliott on X: "Its the US economy quietly accelerating? A range of high frequency data suggests that there has been a notable pick up in the last few months, in line with stimulation equity market rise & rate falls. Thread. Mortgage apps improving sharply: https://t.co/SwqToAnMj3 " / X ( twitter.com ) China Stocks, Not UK Equities, Could Be the Contrarian Trade of 2024 - Bloomberg Middle East crisis live: US and UK ‘shoot down’ one of biggest Houthi airstrikes in Red Sea ( theguardian.com ) Red Sea attacks: retailers rush to avoid delays to spring collections | Reuters Norway poised to open vast ocean area to controversial deep-sea mining ( cnbc.com ) Apple faces epochal moment with looming antitrust scrutiny ( yahoo.com ) Saudi Arabia Issues $12 Billion Bond as EM Nations Load Up - Bloomberg Even rich countries love or need debt.. China satellite launch causes pre-election political storm in Taiwan - SWI swissinfo.ch Ecuador: Gunmen storm television studio live on air - BBC News US credit card balances hit a new record as delinquencies rise in the background ( qz.com ) Global economy will slow for a third straight year in 2024, World Bank predicts ( qz.com ) 2024 Economy Is Looking a Whole Lot Like the 1970s, Says Jamie Dimon ( businessinsider.com ) not the best record on major market calls...but there you go Bär-Bosse: 600 Millionen verpulvert, Offsite im Chedi – Inside Paradeplatz White House orders Cabinet protocol review after Austin hospitalization | The Hill What a bizarre set of circumstances MDMA and Psilocybin Are Approved as Medicines for the First Time | WIRED The secret life of Jimmy Zhong, who stole – and lost – more than $3b ( cnbc.com ) Gabriel Attal, nicknamed ‘baby Macron’, becomes youngest ever French prime minister at 34 – as it happened | Europe | The Guardian EURUSD rally since mid October (general USD sell.-off) in check - all about CPI, BONDS!

Switzerland will for the second time in a row not see any payout from its central bank, as the soaring franc counteracts gains on capital, SNB expects an annual loss of around CHF3 billion ($3.5 billion) for last year (that's better than the 132bn loss in 2022) Germany: Farmers protest causing nationwide disruptions Samsung expects 35% profit drop in Q4, due to weak demand, and NVDA makes new highs yesterday $520! >> NVDA market cap was up $65bn yesterday, that's more than they sales over the last 12months and about 250x more than they made last quarter BlackRock set a 0.3% fee for its proposed BTC ETF, much lower than expected, big firms undercutting each other on fees SPX500 2024 targets, UBS revises it higher from 4'700 to 5'000, RBC from 5K to 5'100 ECB is unlikely to lower borrowing costs before the summer, according to Governing Council member Boris Vujcic FED's Bowman - rate cuts eventually warranted as inflation falls, shocking revelation!..also adds to cover her bets that she remains willing to hike if inflation progress stalls >>> GOLDMAN: “.. We expect that core #PCE  inflation declined further in December 2023 and will continue to decline to an even greater extent throughout 2024. We forecast core PCE inflation of 2.9% in December 2023 and 2.2% in December 2024.”, and finally Bostic said inflation has come down more than expected, with prices on a path to reaching the FOMC’s 2% target, but he doesn’t expect a rate cut until the third quarter Apple’s Vision Pro AR headset is hitting the market for US customers next month, taking on headset-market leader Meta German Industrial Production down 0.7% in Nov, in downtrend since 2017 , production is about 10-15% lower than at peak 6+years ago Five Spanish regions have announced the reintroduction of rules making the use of face masks compulsory in health facilities following a spike in flu and COVID-19 cases over the festive season, good pre-emptive move - hopefully! GS's Currie : 'Demand for raw materials is at record levels, inventories are low, and spare production capacity is largely "exhausted. This is just classic 'own commodities.'"' Emmanuel Macron is expected to name his 34-year old education minister as France's prime minister after pushing out Elisabeth Borne Markets: NIKKEI makes a 34y high, 1989!, meanwhile in China, local stock markets on 5y lows, still looking for a green day in 2024 Saxo : 2024 (could become the) Year of the metals.. EURUSD 1.10/1.11 remains big resistance, U.S CPI will be key tomorrow, beware UST auctions, even if it's a known known for most apparently. Equity markets : will remian volatile, up and down, reacting to anything possible, it's the usual Jan price action ! overall valuation are stretched overall, always looking for markets to create attractive opportunities for our clients! UST's, 10s 4% awaiting U.S CPI tomorrow and many more Fed speakers who don't really matter big picture, but will get the likesofCNBC all exited on the day Quarterly Outlook Q1 2024: What happened to the future? | Saxo Group ( home.saxo ) Commodities: The year of the metals | QO1 2024 | Saxo Group ( home.saxo ) Goldman veteran Jeff Currie remains bullish on commodities this year - MINING.COM SNB skips second payout in row as record loss haunts central bank - SWI swissinfo.ch Spot Bitcoin ETF Issuers in Fee War Ahead of SEC Approval ( cryptonews.com ) Samsung Expects 35% Profit Drop for Q4 Due to Weak Demand ( industryleadersmagazine.com ) Nvidia RTX 4060 Super, RTX 4070 Ti Super, RTX 4080 Super announced ( cnbc.com ) Apple's $3500 Vision Pro MR headset will be in stores soon ( qz.com ) Apple's Vision Pro headset to go on sale in U.S. starting Feb. 2 | Reuters IPhone Sales in China to Fall Double Digits, Jefferies Says ( yahoo.com ) ECB Probably Won’t Cut Rates Before the Summer, Vujcic Says ( yahoo.com ) Javier Blas on X: "CHART OF THE DAY: Europe has experienced a very mild winter so far, reducing heating demand. The current cold snap won't change the outlook. In heating-degree days, the region is tracking nearly 20% below the 30-year average. My @Opinion column is here: https://t.co/x13hcYlLLo https://t.co/MfVssGvxL1 " / X ( twitter.com ) The Biggest Global Risks for Markets in 2024 - Barron's ( barrons.com ) The return of 'some inflation' Russia-Ukraine war live: Ukrainian air force says it is running short of anti-aircraft missiles ( theguardian.com ) German farmers blockade Berlin with tractors in subsidy row - BBC News Germany Sticks to Subsidy Cuts as Farmer Protests Block Roads - Bloomberg French President begins political reset, Macron aims to relaunch his government | World News | WION | Watch ( msn.com ) Electric vehicle sales growth slows in Switzerland - SWI swissinfo.ch ‘Boris bolt’: LBC bolted down guest seat to stop former PM dodging cameras | Boris Johnson | The Guardian Swiss to vote on raising retirement age to 66: a visionary idea or an unwelcome plan? - SWI swissinfo.ch Bridge dilemma captures divide over China in Taiwan elections | Reuters Portugal's revamped golden visa scheme to boost investment funds | Reuters

Week ahead : U.S, Japan, Australia and China CPI, banks kick off earnings season and Central bank speakers coming out of their Christmas holidays in force! Start of 2024, classic partial unwind of what FOMO'ed in late 2023, UST's lower, leading techs/QQQ lower and USD firmer, positioning still is very much short USDollars, Short bonds and long risk, beware stronger data, higher headline inflation, like this morning in CH Swiss CPI 1.7%, vs 1.5% expected , not good for markets if this is a sign elsewhere >>> ''a return of inflation'', meaning it doesn't go as low as many think and thus the 6 prices cuts from FED already priced by markets are misplaced and March is too early (relative to current data), June more likely U.S : Congressional leaders reach $1.59 trillion deal on top-line spending, pave the way for deal to fund the government>>> cutting the budget of the only department they needed to raise ! taxes .. election year! JP Morgan warn on 'boiling frog' US$34 trillion debt - could easily become unsustainable Goods prices have been a big disinflationary pressure over the last year which has brought aggregate inflation figures down substantially, this is beginning to reverse over the last 2-3 weeks with freight up anywhere between 50 to 100% depending on the route U.S NPP headline slightly stronger, with 71K down revisions on previous months Fed's Logan : "“So, given the rapid decline of the ON RRP, I think it’s appropriate to consider the parameters that will guide a decision to slow the runoff of our assets . In my view, we should slow the pace of runoff as ON RRP balances approach a low level.” ISM services activity drops sharply in December, with employment at lowest since 2020 It's only week 2, long way to go, and it was ''all overbought, Dec FOMO etc'' but there you are : 2024 just experienced its worst cross-asset sell-off to start a year since at least 2003 Dear contrarians.... Long "Magnificent 7" and short Chinese shares are the two most overcrowded trades in the market right now'' IPhone sales in China to fall double digits , Jefferies Says Musk’s drug use concerns Tesla, SpaceX Leaders, WSJ Says China sanctions 5 US defense companies in response to US sanctions and arms sales to Taiwan >> tit for tat ! Markets : APPL 200dma is right around here $181 - it matters, either way . Wedbush think AAPL can be a $4trn market cap! >>> has AAPL become a China tech proxy ? UST 10's 4.05% again (4.10 or so highs Friday post NFP, 3.95 after ISM) USdollar ticking higher, risk of further short-covering, UST's always the first tell ! SPX500 4'650 key level to hold for the bulls, it's all pretty systematic, so watch AAPL and SPX500, QQQ and in particular bonds, U.S CPI key ! Commodity weekly: Bumpy start to 2024 | Saxo Group ( home.saxo ) U.S. opposes displacement of Palestinians, Blinken says | Reuters Middle East crisis live: Blinken to meet Saudi crown prince as he warns Palestinians ‘must not be pressed to leave Gaza’ ( theguardian.com ) ISM services activity drops sharply in December, with employment at lowest since 2020 ( yahoo.com ) Congressional leaders reach $1.59 trillion deal on top-line spending, pave the way for deal to fund the government ( msn.com ) The $34 trillion mountain of national debt is a 'boiling frog' situation for the US economy, JPMorgan warns ( msn.com ) Fed’s Logan backs first slowing, then gradually ending, balance-sheet runoff ( msn.com ) Fed always love raising hope of end of QT, it's an election year after all, but what about inflation risk reappearing-not going down further as quick as priced in? Forget Rates, Now Worry About the Fed Unwinding Its Balance Sheet ( yahoo.com ) IPhone Sales in China to Fall Double Digits, Jefferies Says - Bloomberg China sanctions US defence firms over Taiwan sales ( msn.com ) The firms are BAE Systems Land and Armament, Alliant Techsystems, AeroVironment, Viasat and Data Link Solutions China Risks Triggering New Trade War With Xi Jinping's Latest Economic Plan - Bloomberg The S&P 500 could crash by 30%, a recession is likely underway, and interest rates might not fall before summer, market prophet says ( msn.com ) No advocating it, but worth a read nonetheless, clearly, IMHO, the market has been too hasty looking for rates cuts, too much priced in, but we shall see, recession or not etc, goodinflation/prices back up etcetc.. Chinese shipper Cosco reportedly stops trips to Israel amid Red Sea tensions ( cnbc.com ) Elon Musk’s Drug Use Concerns Tesla, SpaceX Leaders, WSJ Says - Bloomberg Boeing 737 Max failure on Alaska Air flight invites renewed scrutiny ( cnbc.com ) Michael Pettis on X: "1/8 Important Bloomberg article on worsening global trade constraints. It is becoming more and more likely that world moves towards a manufacturing over-production crisis. Given the current structure of its economy, China effectively... https://t.co/ythyy5zaKi via @economics" / X ( twitter.com ) Moment of Truth: Is Bitcoin Finally Becoming Socially Acceptable? ( finews.asia ) Surgeon who carried out Europe’s first liver transplant dies aged 93 | Health | The Guardian AUDUSD - other USD charts fairly similar , USDJPY as discussed last week, USDCHF trying, EURFUSD topped, anything sub 1.0850 and more troubles for EURUSD long etc

After the floodings and the wind, snow and freezing temperature coming next week to southern europe >>> Finnish power prices surge to an all-time high today NFP : employment matters to FED form here on, stronger/firmer data will upset the Q4 20023 consensus further.. (long QQQ and bonds, short USD) - median exp 170K for this afternoon (range 80k to 225k) Global freight rate for containers has surged about 60% this week #shipping companies back in focus finally! White House says Russia used missiles from North Korea to strike Ukraine UK election likely in H2 2024, November ? Investors poured $123 billion into cash funds in the week through Jan. 3, the largest ever to start a year: BofA, EPFR data. This comes as money market fund assets climb to a record $6 trillion. US high-yield bonds have sold off at the fastest pace since March , when traders were worried about a banking-market collapse. Spreads have widened by nearly a half a percentage point since Dec. 28, the fastest pace since March 16 Markets : Dec 2023 FOMO trades been challenged soonest we started the new year, as discussed plenty lately, way overdone on QQQ, rates and probably USD too. 150bps priced in for Fed in 2024 is a lot.. any stronger/former data and bonds will sell-off again, as we saw his week SPX500 key support 4'650 area, best hold or else, QQQ is the lead after UST's USDJPY easily through 145 again, other usd pairs at risk of catching up, USDCHF looks a little too low! been asleep, back to 0.9100/0.9200 in Q1 ? on a decent rates moves , anything possible, IMHO market stretched/short usd Eurozone December preliminary CPI +2.9% vs +3.0% y/y expected SaxoCIO on X: "The Magnificent Seven is not the only concentration America should worry about https://t.co/jBJF04BofG via @financialtimes Critical piece by Tett - in election year... where 92,5% of stock market owned by less than 10% of population - who then really cares about "stock effect"" / X ( twitter.com ) Shipping Rates Soar on Red Sea Diversions - Bloomberg Sweden breaks new cold record as cold spell continues ( thelocal.se ) Destruction in Gaza and floods in Europe: photos of the day – Thursday | News | The Guardian Middle East crisis live: Israel to continue war with ‘new combat approach’ until Hamas dismantled, defence minister says ( theguardian.com ) Live updates: Latest news on Russia and the war in Ukraine ( cnbc.com ) White House says Russia used missiles from North Korea to strike Ukraine | Reuters The war in Gaza may widen. The Biden admin is getting ready for it. - POLITICO North Korea fires artillery shells towards South's border island - BBC News Venezuela says troops will stay deployed until British military vessel leaves waters off Guyana | The Independent Few hot spots around the world Rishi Sunak may call general election for November 14, says top political expert Sir John Curtice | Evening Standard Google Just Disabled Cookies for 30 Million Chrome Users. Here’s How to Tell If You’re One of Them. ( gizmodo.com ) Martha Stewart Talks Cannabis And Working With Snoop Dogg: We Enjoy ‘Baking’ ( forbes.com ) Criminal conspiracy: slowly joining the dots – Post Office Scandal What a horrible, horrible story and what these folks had to endure, absolutely shocking How BYD grew from a phone battery maker to EV giant taking on Tesla ( cnbc.com ) Putin offers easier path to citizenship for foreigners who join Russian military  | The Hill Why Biden's support among Hispanics is tanking — here's a hint: the border crisis ( nypost.com ) Outrage after angry farmers attempt to storm ferry with German Vice Chancellor aboard ( thelocal.de ) NASDAQ - more corrective action likely, all about bonds and data if stronger! stronger data no good to QQQ

Crypto tumbled yesterday, was some chatters SEC holding off on BTC ETF decision FOMC minutes, you could take anything in there to support your bias, but FED will be reluctant to cut too soon, high for a little longer, employment is key >>> "participants viewed the policy rate as likely at or near its peak for this tightening cycle, though they noted that the actual policy path will depend on how the economy evolves" and "reaffirmed that it would be appropriate for policy to remain at a restrictive stance for some time until inflation was clearly moving down sustainably"...and ahead of NFP : “Several participants noted the risk that, if labor demand were to weaken substantially further, the labor market could transition quickly from a gradual easing to a more abrupt downshift in conditions.” /Thread from Timiraos below interesting China Caixin services firmer, while JPN PMI manufacturing data deeper into contraction (delayed YCC decision..??) and UK Dec's final services 53.4 (52.7 prelim) China's ’s Workers Suffer Biggest Drop in Hiring Salaries on Record/BBG, PBOC balance-sheet has increased by nearly $600bn last 4months.. to $6.2trn #KWEB US Factory Gauge Shows 14th Month of Shrinking Activity, ISM yesterday showed that the grand total of 5.6% of purchasing managers are experiencing any growth >>> many describe the U.S economy as very strong, because it is running on biblical amount of debt/deficit, which is 6.3% of GDP, this has never happened other than after WWII and during covid.. Markets : Russell hitting the 21dma and the trend line that has been in place since Oct lows. RSI goes from extremely overbought to the least overbought since mid Nov, just like that in 2days.. . SPX500 4'650/70 area of support is KEY support for the bulls Crude prices beginning to react to risk of MidEast supply fears..(shipping doing well !) CROSSJPY's correcting higher still, together with USDJPY breaking up through key 142.50 area Oil Prices Rise on Middle East Supply Fears ( msn.com ) Russia-Ukraine war live: Russian hackers inside Ukraine’s biggest telecoms company ‘since at least May’ ( theguardian.com ) Japan Dec factory activity extends declines on market uncertainty- PMI ( msn.com ) Bond yields surging to highest level in decades: Jim Bianco ( cnbc.com ) That is certainly not on Mr market's radar Nick Timiraos on X: "The latest Jolts report suggests job turnover continued to cool in November Openings fell below 9 million using a three-month moving average, the lowest in 2½ years There were 1.4 openings for every unemployed person, down from 1.8 a year earlier https://t.co/OyExnUp1rz https://t.co/crw0SLYc0p " / X ( twitter.com ) China's BYD is rivaling Tesla in size. Can it also match its global reach? ( qz.com ) China Workers See Biggest Drop in Hiring Salaries on Record - Bloomberg China conducts patrols in South China Sea amid ongoing run-ins | Reuters China's housing inventory may take more than 10 years to correct: economist ( cnbc.com ) Satori Fund's Dan Niles Names Amazon, Meta Top Stocks To Own In 2024 ( msn.com ) >>> Niles likes our contrarian long China ! #SHCOMP #KWEB #tradeidea Crypto News Today: Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst Seyffart Puts the Record Straight ( fxempire.com ) >>> risk is market has been front running those ETF's.. ''hook them in then pull the rug?''..surely not (for the record I have no real view about them other than 'own 5% of your portfolio' for ever and leave it alone).. Analysts Weigh-In On Spot Bitcoin ETF Rejection Report, Maintain Jan. 8-10 Approval Timeline | IBTimes Zuckerberg Sold $428 Million of Meta Stock In Last Two Months - Bloomberg Thousands of doctors in Britain walk off the job in their longest-ever strike ( qz.com ) SpaceX illegally fired workers critical of Elon Musk, US labor agency says ( yahoo.com ) USDJPY pretty clear

The TFSE 100 turns 40 today, there was the FT 30 and the Stock exchange 100.. >>> after the huge rally since early Nov 2023, watch the QQQ possible reversal, bonds leading the charge (and USD long stretched..) Fed's Barkin is the 1st speaker in 2024 and FOMC minutes to focus on tonight BBG- "China injected nearly $50 billion worth of low-cost funds into policy-oriented banks last month, suggesting the central bank may be ramping up financing for housing and infrastructure projects to support the economy ." Europe’s top securities regulator warns on risks from leveraged trades. Esma’s Verena Ross says efforts to monitor and curb bets that use borrowed money need to go further US reaches deal to extend military presence at Qatar base The Incredibly Ballooning US Govt Debt Spikes by $1trn in about 3months to $34trn , or $12 trn higher than 5years ago ...Interest payments threatening to eat up 50% of tax receipts...Congress ? "The fourth quarter has seen factories reduce employment at a pace not seen since 2009 barring only the early pandemic lockdown months" - PMI/US US was top LNG exporter in 2023 as hit record levels Markets : FX positioning : as bonds and risk rallied (QQQ lead), market increased its 'short usd' positioning into year-end >>> price action yesterday pretty clear, soonest rates/bonds moves higher, UST's clear lead as usual Already some headlines of 'worst start to the year since xx' for bonds and equity VIX had an average of about 16 in 2023 - least volatile year for US equity since 2019 Beware 'January reversals' particularly when previous Q4 was so driven by FOMO and year-end (forced) rebalancing The accidental icon: The fascinating history of how the FTSE 100 was created 40 years ago today ( msn.com ) FOMC meeting minutes, job openings, earnings: What to watch ( yahoo.com ) Maersk halts Red Sea shipping until further notice after Houthi militant attack ( cnbc.com ) US was top LNG exporter in 2023 as hit record levels ( msn.com ) Outrageous Predictions 2024 Geneva | Saxo Bank ( home.saxo ) and Outrageous Predictions 2024 Zurich | Saxo Bank ( home.saxo ) >>> please let me know if you'd like to join - thanks Robin Brooks on X: "Markets are focused on how Germany is the "sick man of Europe," but recent Euro zone weakness is actually concentrated in France (top right) and Italy (bottom left). That's where manufacturing (blue) and services (red) sentiment are tumbling. Sickness in Europe is broad-based... https://t.co/4yx4X2Q0jq " / X ( twitter.com ) Barchart on X: "Wild Stat: 92.5% of stocks are owned by the Wealthiest 10% of Americans. This is an all-time high equity ownership concentration. https://t.co/w0ef7KQz9E " / X ( twitter.com ) Israeli drone kills deputy Hamas chief in Beirut | Reuters US reaches deal to extend military presence at Qatar base -source | Reuters Good stuff there : The Outlook 2024: Stronger For Longer ( unlimitedfunds.com ) '''' So while it looks like stronger for longer is mostly likely to dominate, the our advice is to stay flexible.  If ‘24 is anything like ‘23, it’s going to be another volatile time for generating alpha.'' ' yups! I'll go for that - few very interesting point and charts there Europe’s top securities regulator warns on risks from leveraged trades ( ft.com ) Here are your SPX500 year-end forecast from major players! Morgan Stanley 4'500 JPM 4'200 BoA 5'000 Deutsche Bank 5'100 Oppenheimer 5'200 Citi 5'100 Cantor 4'400 Wells 4'600 BMO 5'100 GS 5'100 SocGen 4'750 Barcx 4'800 UBS 4'850 China Injects $50 Billion Into Policy Banks in Stimulus Push - Bloomberg China’s Rongsheng Petrochemical, Saudi Aramco to buy stake in each other’s units - Global Times Brazil's economy improves during President Lula's first year back, but a political divide remains ( qz.com ) READ: Harvard President Claudine Gay’s resignation letter ( msn.com ) NASDAQ - been on a pretty crazy move since November - reversing - all about bonds and USD - bonds lead