In this interview with Bloomberg TV, PVM discusses our thoughts on Global Macroeconomics and how it drives our quest to build investment portfolios for our Clients with Better Metrics. We also discuss our latest single stock investments.

PVM discusses "Growth vs Value", Single Stocks and our systematic approach to finding deep sustainable long term Value for our Client Portfolios.

PVM discusses "Growth vs Value", Single Stocks and our systematic approach to finding deep sustainable long term Value for our Client Portfolios.

Markets : this week been all about deals a-gogo! SLR relief, Mid-East playing the long game with the U.S, just like China, Trump sais he is the only one to do it with Putin, he adds that they are close to a nuclear deal with Iran, SK and U.S met for talks (will be interesting to see if any USD consequence within the deal!), JPN economy shrinks in March by -0.2%, META AI delay, Coinbase hack, eq markets buying into close this week been huge (partly short gamma) going into monthly Eq derivs expiries today, clearly a lot of good news priced in these markets now (SPX 5900+) USD : big picture most likely remain soft, as Bessent continues to talk/threaten with the tax on UST holdings by foreigners + possibly push for lower usd via trade talks (SK and JPN will be the tell) How China caught up with Silicon Valley-FT >>> DeepSeek moment was the tell, as discussed back then, China has caught up, partly the reason for the Trump tariffs war... US set to cut capital requirements for banks, FT reports Bill Gates says that the tech bans on China are "absolutely" backfiring, and that it was delusional to think the US "would get substantially ahead of the Chinese" and that "[AI] was going to be super unique to us." Germany’s Merz tells EU to scrap supply chain due diligence law : The EU's CSDDD was proposed to force companies to enforce sustainability rules and human rights along their supply chain Starmer seeks UK-EU ‘reset’ Trump says he has a ‘little problem’ with Tim Cook China's CO2 emissions have been declining for a year now, since 2024, when their official target was to reach peak emissions by 2030 (and carbon neutrality by 2060) >> no matter how you slice it, this is good SCMP: "Container bookings from China to the United States have surged nearly 300 per cent after the world’s two biggest economies agreed to pause sky-high tariffs that threatened global shipping."... all so binary! but as we said in March, an embargo was never going to last very long... US set to cut capital requirements for banks, FT reports Trump insists Ukraine-Russia peace won't happen until he and Putin 'get together' Trump says he has a ‘little problem’ with Tim Cook Apple’s assurance to Indian government after Donald Trump talks about his “little problem” with CEO Tim Cook: “There is no…” Trump says US close to a nuclear deal with Iran | Reuters Trump will not like this : How Chinese Tech Giants Are Outpacing Silicon Valley by Letting Go – The Droid Guy In just four years, Xiaomi overtook Apple in China’s smartphone market.TikTok reached a billion users twice as fast as Facebook.WeChat Pay dominates in China, while WhatsApp’s payment feature remains niche, even in its strongest markets. Tariff cuts ease mass China layoffs threat, but job market pain persists | Reuters Starmer seeks UK-EU ‘reset’ – is another Brexit row looming? US trade chief meets South Korea's shipbuilders for possible cooperation - Nikkei Asia State of U.S. Tariffs: May 12, 2025 | The Budget Lab at Yale Germany's Merz tells EU to scrap supply chain due diligence law - Euractiv Japan's economy shrinks 0.2% for the first time in a year Meta Reportedly Delays 'Behemoth' AI Model: What This Could Mean for Its AI Tools - CNET Coinbase hacked: Hackers demand $20 million in Bitcoin, threaten to leak customer data - Technology News | The Financial Express China to US container bookings soar nearly 300% after trade war truce | South China Morning Post Liz Webster on X: "Since 1970s when we joined Europe, food has been secure in Britain. But Brexit tore up our trade agreements, agri policy and food security. U.K. has NO FOOD PLAN as climate change and war are playing havoc with the world, We have NO plan, not a scooby, to feed the population https://t.co/mX4DQfy5UT " / X The Kobeissi Letter on X: "The selling pressure in UnitedHealth, $UNH, is almost unprecedented: For the first time since 1998, a Dow 30 stock is down over -55% in 1 month. The last time it happened? Also $UNH in 1998, when the stock fell -55% in one month. Not even 2008 or 2020 saw a Dow 30 component https://t.co/Jhi68sEAxG " / X Getting cheap that's for sure, might be worth a look ? Arnaud Bertrand on X: "Wow, they actually achieved it, and 6 years ahead of target. It's now confirmed that China's CO2 emissions have been declining for a year now, since 2024, when their official target was to reach peak emissions by 2030 (and carbon neutrality by 2060). You can say what you want" / X Portugal far-right leader suffers second collapse days before election | Reuters

RELIEF following the tariff war de-escalation looks set to be quickly replaced by government budget tension Talks downgraded...Putin, will he, won't he Meet Zelensky, doesn't look like it anymore, in fact Russian C Team turned up in Turkey...why...?...but one never knows till the weekend is over Geopolitics & Trade deals are linked : Trump has ZERO appetite for protracted campaigns...the chance of the embargo staying for more than a few weeks was ZERO, as we said 3-4weeks ago, part of his speech on Tuesday was actually pretty good (listen below) >>>> if Trump wanted NK soldiers out of Ukraine=trade deal with China (China will speak to NK direct and get it done..), IF Putin meets Zelensky tomorrow in Turkey (Xi would have had a big say in approving this first, so US trade deal done first..), China critics of Europe have been toned down recently, China met LatAm countries few days ago ('aligning of interests'), Pakistan and India de-escalated too, even Iran nuclear talks are progressing ( Trump : “I don’t believe in having permanent enemies. I am here to offer a more hopeful future for Iran.” ) , they all meeting tomorrow in Turkey too ! GAZA interesting, Trump had a go at Netanyahu, even Syria sanctions were taken away, ( “Trump Tower Damascus '') >>> HUGE benefits, futures reconstruction deals, promises and orders for all those 30+ U.S companies that joined him on the trip! Late yesterday...''U.S not seeking to weaken USD in trade talks'' ...very timely.. ECB's Nagel: There is a good probability we will get to 2% inflation target Trump on India-Pakistan: "We I think convinced them to let's have peace and let's go and make trade deals. If we can make trade deals we like that much better than nuclear weapons." NATO has quietly conducted one of its largest post-Cold War series of naval exercises, with over 50 ships simultaneously conducting missions in the Baltic, North Atlantic, Mediterranean, and Norwegian Seas China’s manufacturing dominance has little to do with being “cheap” anymore. China’s labour costs are rapidly approaching developed economy prices, Things are made in China because they’ve spent 50 years developing infrastructure etc etc, India is cheap not China now.. Oil fell after NBC reported Iran is willing to forgo nuclear weapons in exchange for US sanctions relief (BBG) Tariffs : so we went from end of the world stuff, market meltdown, millions of Americans working in a T-shirt factory, tariffs will plug the $2trn budget deficit and pay for getting rid of tax on tips, and little kids can only have 2 dolls instead of 30....to 'the deal is done', markets right back up, yet tariffs still on highs of the last 70y and in reality its the concept of a deal (as per Trump himself), and tax cuts will increase debt by some $3-4trn, thus 30y near 5%....so it's all good from here ? >>> watch long-end UST's !! Trump wants $100,000 SALT cap for individuals and a $200,000 one for married couples, Currently, there’s a $10,000 limit on the federal deduction on state and local taxes, known as SALT, which will expire Dec. 31, 2025, without action from Congress >>> The Ways & Means draft would cut taxes by $5.3 TRILLION if made permanent -- $6.3 trillion worth of tax cuts and $1 trillion of offsets. Even counting all the expiration, it would add $3.8 trillion to the deficit after offsets. SPX500 >>> re-hedge, reduce risk...''sell in May and go away'' at 5900 area #timestamp >>> a lot of good news & positives outcomes priced in + tariffs still very high + trade deals are actually 'trade concepts' ! and 30y is at 5%... FF futures pricing in exactly 2 cuts for 2025 now #USD Important piece by Brad Setser on how Taiwan (like many other economies) has controlled its external imbalances through aggressive currency intervention in order to support polices that lead to imbalances in its internal account Historic US budget alarm replaces tariff anxiety | The Star CHECK these out..coincidence..not really Syria poised for investment boom as US sanctions eased The U.S can invest big time now too.. India and Pakistan exchange captured soldiers in goodwill gesture Iran to hold nuclear talks with UK, France, Germany in Türkiye on Friday: Tehran Trump Sides With the Israeli People Against Netanyahu Check which CEO's was there with Trump Blossom on X: "The combined valuation of the companies in this video is more than $5 Trillion https://t.co/9FuIuId3qN " / X CGTN on X: "Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva says mutual respect key reason behind thriving China-Brazil ties #ChinaCELAC2025 https://t.co/vu1kcQTeHG " / X China, LatAm countries hail ties as foreign ministers meet - Global Times Aaron Rupar on X: "Trump says it's possible he's going to Turkey tomorrow for the talks between Russia and Ukraine, but he's "all booked out," but he still might do it, but Putin probably won't be there, so Marco is going. Fox & Friends hosts immediately start praising Trump's clarity. https://t.co/uHxNcLKepo " / X Arnaud Bertrand on X: "I rarely praise Trump but this is a genuinely incredible speech https://t.co/1SgAtVBu3v I've been arguing for close to a decade that the single biggest reason for the growing divide between the West and "the rest" was the West's inability to accept diversity (the genuine kind," / X House GOP tax bill calls for $30,000 'SALT' deduction cap What to know about the GOP’s Medicaid bill Fed's Jefferson: Expect economy to slow, future inflation uncertain due to tariffs Mexican security chief confirms cartel family members entered US in a deal with Trump administration | The Hill Michael Pettis on X: "1/3 Important piece by Brad Setser on how Taiwan (like many other economies) has controlled its external imbalances through aggressive currency intervention in order to support polices that lead to imbalances in its internal account. https://t.co/SAuxg4tkjG via @ft" / X Spencer Hakimian on X: "China’s manufacturing dominance has very little to do with being “cheap”. China’s labor costs are rapidly approaching developed economy prices. Things are made in China because they’ve spent 50 years developing infrastructure, technical expertise, deep supply chains, https://t.co/MSzIpX0qij " / X Can say that again ! Brian Sullivan on X: "Honestly, $UNH is one of the most bizarre stories I've seen in a long time from a stock perspective. Bottom line: one of America's largest companies has now lost nearly half its value in a month. And the CEO - who made $23 million last year per FactSet - just quit as they" / X Microsoft lays off 6,000+ employees for non-performance reasons MUFG: We expect limited USD upside as tariff de-escalation faces structural hurdles | Forexlive OSINTtechnical on X: "NATO has quietly conducted one of its largest post-Cold War series of naval exercises, with over 50 ships simultaneously conducting missions in the Baltic, North Atlantic, Mediterranean, and Norwegian Seas. https://t.co/z0qnD0NUBc " / X

Markets : Even Trump admitted that the China trade deal, is ' a concept deal', so moderate bullish views after this massive 20%+ rally, UK, US, EU and Germany all postponed sanctions plans because Putin offered to meet in Istanbul (will he turn up?), Syria sanctions off, Yields up across board, 30y US near 5%, 30y JPN near 3%, this could again, begin to make the headlines..SPX500 okay so long as above 200dma 5750 area Trump says he will lift Syria sanctions ahead of expected meeting with its leader, XPT showing signs of 'wanting' to break up, Trump speech in Saudi was quite something ! UST's : Trump's big and beautiful tax deal could add a net $4trn in debt/expansionary, NO doubt this tax bill has got the long-end's attention.. .this is not going to help #duration #longend >>> this really needs to be monitored with 30y yields near 5% already...higher tariffs will cost going forward too, and the FED will not even cut this year by the look of things (this is a clear risk now..) China strengthens ties with Latin America amid growing uncertainties, 30 countries, CELAC are in Beijing, all about infrastructure, business, build build... UK : The Brexit Impact Report 2025 shows 98.2% of UK businesses back rejoining the European Single Market to boost growth/Full report below >>> Want to lower immigration? Rejoin the EU...Brexit propaganda delivered just the reverse of what they were telling voters Got to hand it to Trump, even after the great deal over the weekend, tariffs are still the highest since the 1930's , sure they may well come down further, most probably.. but he didn't bomb the whole economy so it's a great result and markets are happy! >>> he got told by the likes of Walmart (remember 10days ago..) that the shelves would be empty within 4-5weeks, so best get those ships out of China, and fast The admin is shifting to stimulation mode before the US inflation problem has been resolved. Most measures of inflation remain elevated before the juicing that's to come, giving the Fed little reason to cut further anytime soon /Thread GS raise year-end SPX target to 6,100 from 5,900, why not... >>> Economist upgrades outlook when market moves up, and then strategist upgrade price target when economist upgrades outlook. So it becomes just circular, momentum, marking to market. Never wrong short term, never insightful longer term UnitedHealth appoints new CEO, suspends annual forecast, stock -45% in 1month Beyond Extinction: Where next for global automakers? Barclays joins GS (others will follow) calling for only 1 FED cut in dec 2025 China criticises UK trade deal with US, FT reports Trump delivers 'remarkable' speech on visit to Saudi Arabia | Trump News | Sky News China strengthens ties with Latin America amid growing uncertainties Brazil’s president seeks ‘indestructible’ links with China amid Trump trade war | Brazil | The Guardian Trump to lift Syria sanctions, signs $600 billion deal with Saudi Arabia | Ariana News | Afghanistan News Trump says he will lift Syria sanctions ahead of expected meeting with its leader US slashes 'de minimis' tariff on small China parcels to as low as 30% | Reuters China criticises UK trade deal with US, FT reports | Reuters Trump says US to lift Syria sanctions, secures $600 billion Saudi deal | Reuters UnitedHealth Group appoints new CEO and suspends annual forecast Beyond Extinction: Where next for global automakers? – The Armchair Trader Michael Pettis on X: "1/10 There will be a rush to declare yesterday's trade agreement a total success or an abject failure, but its main consequence will be to partially reopen the trade conduits without changing underlying dynamics much. https://t.co/dBvwwsM4Ml " / X Bob Elliott on X: "The admin is shifting to stimulation mode before the US inflation problem has been resolved. Most measures of inflation remain elevated before the juicing that's to come, giving the Fed little reason to cut further anytime soon. Thread." / X VanEck Gold Commentary Apr 2025 - SG,HK,TH.pdf EMUK_Business_Impact_2025_V5_Digital.pdf

Bessent is the man in charge, clear for anyone who even doubted, good thing is, he is very transparent and methodological, listen to him! it's worth it.. >>> oil is down, tariffs stuff is done, well 90 days to work it out (anyhow its between 10 and 30% tariffs..), EU next big one, now deficit/rates what will he do about it into H2 2025... >>> can Bessent save stocks and bonds at the same time ? this is the real trillion(s) $ question.. doubtful ! The EU Commission is exploring alternative ways to use capital controls and tariffs against Russia if Hungary blocks the extension of the EU's economic sanctions imposed on Moscow China agrees to a "China-US trade consultation mechanism." Western media spins it as a thaw. Beijing’s real message? “We’re fine either way.” NVIDIA reportedly raises GPU prices by 10-15% Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he’d like Trump to join a possible meeting with Vladimir Putin in Turkey on Thursday. European leaders are said to be willing to wait before urging the US to announce new sanctions on Moscow. Brussels is also preparing to use capital controls and tariffs against Russia in case Hungary blocks the extension of sanctions (BBG, FT) No matter how you slice it..... it's pretty clear the U.S caved in on trade talks with China, what happened to the Main Street before Wall Street ? ...>>> NO decoupling is the key there, ''NEITHER SIDE WANTS TO DECOUPLE'.. key outcome of the meeting is that both sides "recognize the importance of bilateral economic and trade relations to the two countries and the global economy, recognize the importance of sustainable, long-term and mutually beneficial bilateral economic and trade relations, and continue to advance relevant work in the spirit of mutual openness, continuous communication, cooperation and mutual respect." Trump: "The European Union is in many ways nastier than China. We've just started with them. We have all the cards. They treated us very unfairly." UK Government's Immigration White Paper in full /Thread Is it Finally Time to Buy Platinum? #XPT FDIC data shows that the banking sector is currently holding almost $500 billion in unrealized losses on investment securities GS now sees 1 Fed rate cut in Dec in 2025 vs 3 cuts in previous forecasts Trump’s 'Art of the Deal' diplomacy just delivered a global win—without a shot fired It's ALL connected - fwiw I agree EU explores measures to safeguard Russia sanctions - Breaking The News NVIDIA reportedly raises GPU prices by 10-15% as manufacturing costs surge — tariffs and TSMC price hikes filter down to retailers | Tom's Hardware Japan's finance minister wants to discuss forex with Bessent at G7 | Reuters COT Report: Broad risk reduction seen ahead of easing trade tensions | Saxo Arnaud Bertrand on X: "This is worth a read: China's statement on the agreement with the U.S. ( https://t.co/bUgU4Ilqmq ). They highlight that, besides the fact the tariffs would be reduced to 10%, a key outcome of the meeting is that both sides "recognize the importance of bilateral economic and trade https://t.co/QFSIO3z1da " / X William Huo on X: "BREAKING: China agrees to a "China-US trade consultation mechanism." Western media spins it as a thaw. Beijing’s real message? “We’re fine either way.” (1/9) https://t.co/c5cYHr07Zr " / X Youth mobility scheme with EU will help to right the Brexit wrongs - Big Issue Politics UK on X: "🚨 BREAKING: The Government's Immigration White Paper in full: - Measures will reduce immigration numbers by around 100,000 a year (full calculation for each measure below) - Legislation will be brought in to make clear that the Government and Parliament - not courts - https://t.co/JvZmmTaXfX " / X Is it Finally Time to Buy Platinum? - The Daily Reckoning

Pretty evident since middle of last week, that DEescalation efforts across board were also clearly all 'correlated' one way or another, Zelenski-Putin talks on Thursday, India-Pakistan ceasefire, Starmer first UK PM to join EU meeting since Brexit..The White House has talks trade deal on their web page..since yesterday, no details though >>>>> IF there is a proper trade deal, markets will/would be higher than 1.5% overnight, as this would be huger on macro basis, so let's see now >>> Bessent 9am local time and further Chinese comments likely, they are apparently going to have a joint statement today LOTS of debate about what was actually agreed upon during the meeting in GVA. A more fundamental question is why Bessent is taking the lead in these discussions. Trade is not typically within the Treasury Secretary's purview — one could argue he's simply accompanying Greer, who represents the USTR. However, the absence of Commerce Secretary Lutnick and Senior Trade and Manufacturing Counsel Navarro is notable. This strongly suggests that the meeting wasn't focused on trade, but rather on U.S. debt financing, that all said Yellen was always part of any China trad talks.. Chinese Exports Redirected From the US to the Rest of the World. The US is no longer importing cheap goods from China. As a result, the rest of the world will likely see a significant increase in imports of cheap Chinese goods that China can no longer sell in the US #JGB 30y bond yields highest in 25years at 2.95% >>> might help JPY recover Trump to sign executive order to cut prices of medicine to match other countries Zelensky offers to meet Putin after Trump demands Ukraine hold direct talks with Russia India-Pakistan ceasefire appears to hold after accusations of violations Trump to sign executive order to cut prices of medicine to match other countries | Reuters U.S. Announces China Trade Deal in Geneva – The White House President Trump Announces Most-Favored-Nation Policy for Pharma Prices Keir Starmer first UK PM to join EU leaders' meeting post-Brexit Trump plans to accept luxury 747 from Qatar to use as Air Force One | Reuters In Trump's circle, some expect high tariffs even after trade deals | Reuters Real estate and gold vs. stocks: Best long-term investment JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon criticizes Trump's tariffs (1) Drop Site on X: "NEW: Trump May Announce Gaza Deal With Minimal Israeli Input, Says Israeli Report A new report from Israel Hayom says U.S. President Donald Trump may unveil a sweeping Gaza agreement by the end of this week—one developed with deep American involvement but only partial Israeli https://t.co/OPjQT0rX4t " / X Bitcoin tops $100,000 and Ethereum surges as crypto rallies

Trump seeks tax hikes on wealthy who earn $2.5mio or more...whoops, after the US-UK 'deal that isn't a deal' it looks like that 10% tariffs are here to stay as a basis, Trump lowered tariffs to China down to 50% ahead of meeting tomorrow in Geneva, this is not going to fly with the chinese delegation..one can fear... EU already set out possible 95-billion-euro response to US tariffs Markets : giddy up short-covering in equity last 3weeks.., a little too good for what's ahead of us, look to reduce risk, ''re hedge, re sell'' some exposure #SPX500 futures near 5700, @QQQ 20K+, and resell some USDJPY-CROSSJPY's, buy GOLD again etc >>>> We have reduced again what we purchased for clients in early-mid April Bank of England cut 25bps, however, 30y yields up10bps.. Initial thoughts on the US-UK '''trade deal'''... Not much changes, for now / Thread The federal budget deficit totaled $1.1 trillion in the first seven months of fiscal year 2025, CBO estimates. That amount is $196 billion more than the deficit recorded during the same period last fiscal year The friendship between Trump and Netanyahu is over GOLD $6'000 during Trump 2.0 ?... Trump suggests meeting with Powell wouldn’t do much to help him plead his case for looser monetary policy: “It’s like talking to a wall.” Trump pushes Republicans to have rich pay more taxes Pakistan launched multiple attacks along India's western border, India says | Reuters EU sets out possible 95-billion-euro response to US tariffs Xi in Moscow: China's role in Russia's economic survival Spencer Hakimian on X: "Call me naive if you want. But I think there’s an imminent deescalation with China coming. 1. We are just weeks away from a full collapse of our economy without Chinese inventory. If ships start leaving China this weekend, they’ll get to the U.S. just in time to avoid that https://t.co/MSk7kNN1Se " / X Tend to agree, Trump already brought tariffs down to 50pct, but that's still far too high, doubt China will be happy about that this weekend in Geneva! Gold to Hit $6,000 Under Trump? Dollar Reset & Bitcoin Boom Ahead | Fran - The Jerusalem Post Report: Trump ‘disappointed’ with Netanyahu, will continue Middle East policy objectives without Israel Brad Setser on X: "Initial thoughts on the US-UK trade deal -- First, this is a very small deal. Most of the new US tariffs remain. Most of the restrictions on US exports to the UK (which are modest) remain. Not much changes ... 1/" / X This is not the full fat free trade agreement between the US and the UK that was talked about all the way through the Brexit referendum and for ages afterwards USD ... (1) Michael McNair on X: "Trumps economics chief, Stephen Miran’s, reserve accumulation plan (via gold-FX loop or SWF) isn’t just about building fx reserves. Its most important purpose may be exposing the hypocrisy in the global monetary system and setting the stage for capital controls. If the US starts" / X Fidelity’s Chris Kuiper Presents “The Investment Case For Bitcoin” At Corporate Conference StanChart analyst apologizes $120K bitcoin price call 'too low' Why Crypto Natives Are Buying Gold Griffin calls tariffs a 'painfully regressive tax,' hitting working class the hardest David Morgan on X: "#Platinum As of late 2024, the estimated above-ground platinum stock is approximately 2.5 million ounces, which equates to about 78 metric tonnes. This represents a significant decline from previous years, with a 23% reduction in 2024 alone, and projections indicating a further" / X Private equity dealmakers defy M&A slowdown Palantir joins top 10 most valuable tech companies, stock at premium Nutty valuation! Reform’s green energy assault in Lincolnshire ‘puts 12,200 jobs at risk’ | Reform UK | The Guardian

VE80 ! followed by ...Trade talks (fitting timing..?).., all these talks are the start of negotiating, let's be positive, but it's just that, the world is 'negotiating' again, they know they have to... or else (LA ports already down 60pct in traffic..unless you want a proper recession..compromise) >>> markets may well rally into meeting (having rallied huge late April already, for context), possibly come off as both side walk away without anything firm decided, though both will admit it's ok to save face.. USd also recovers, vs overbought Gold, CHF, JPY, EURO, GBP etc Gundlach: believes base case is headline CPI will end the year with a 4 handle Textbook risk management from Fed chair Powell: "The costs of waiting to see further are fairly low." Total revenues for U.S. firms in China exceed six times the value of U.S. exports to China Xi Jinping says Taiwan's reunification with China is "inevitable" and "unstoppable." Mike Rowe warns Americans that the ‘will to work’ is disappearing — says 6.8 million able-bodied men aren’t even looking for a job. Here’s why and what it means for US job market France and Germany will set up a Defense and Security Council, President Macron announced Bessent : The unfettered ability to borrow has made the United States more prolific, however, there is the potential that the market may discipline us one day, so quickly come sup with....of course now, he sees (needs) the potential for some $2 trillion in demand for US Treasuries from digital assets, and US Debt to GDP ratio will drop next year..finally...Bessent says that little girls who are sad about having fewer dolls should just have it explained to them that they will have a better life for it Forbes : How close is the U.S to a recession ? France and Germany to set up joint security council #GOOD at current levels of $150 is a 1.7trn valuation, its cloud infrastructure bizz runs on a 50bn yearly rate, let's put a 20 multiple, thats $1trn name or $80-90 stock price Barclays Upgrades UK's FTSE 250 To Overweight From Market Weight #USD : Did you know that in the 1980s, the U.S. succeeded in reducing its trade deficits and tamed an overvalued dollar? Richard Clarida, PIMCO’s Global Economic Advisor and former Vice Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, offers valuable historical perspective and insights for the current landscape The EU is preparing a massive response to US tariffs. If the negotiations fail, it plans to tax about 100 billion euros of American products, according to European diplomats. Citi's Moore says firms cannot ‘Adapt Instantly’ to policy changes - Economy was ‘decelerating even before tariffs’ - “At this point, we're not adding to risk assets” Quite a brutal op-ed from the former head of the Spanish electricity grid.. In short: Spain invested (lots) in solar generation -- but did not integrate it into the power grid!! Fed sees rising risks to economy as it leaves rates unchanged | Reuters The Real Lessons From the Plaza and Louvre Accords | PIMCO Are We Close To A Recession? Here’s How To Tell. Mike Rowe warns Americans that the ‘will to work’ is disappearing — says 6.8 million able-bodied men aren’t even looking for a job. Here’s why and what it means for US job market Brad Setser on X: "Excellent piece on the dollar and the euro by @helene_rey This distinction is absolutely critical 1/many https://t.co/oUeGzNIDdm " / X Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on X: "The unfettered ability to borrow has made the United States more prolific, however, there is the potential that the market may discipline us one day. @POTUS and this administration are actively working to set the country on a path that avoids this. https://t.co/tuUeoQJ0Ny " / X Mitch Presnick 柏力 on X: "Some perspective on the Sino-U.S. trade imbalance. Total revenues for U.S. firms in China exceed six times the value of U.S. exports to China. 其实 more than 75 American MNCs earn over $2 billion annually in China - a number roughly equal to total annual U.S. exports to China. https://t.co/Fp93HH4dfO " / X Alphabet shares sink on report Apple may add AI search to its browser Biden BBC interview: Trump appeasing Putin with pressure on Ukraine Trump Education Secretary mocked after critics spot grammatical errors in Harvard letter Can't make this stuff up... Could more have been done to avoid the blackout? | Opinion | Five Days Anton Gerashchenko on X: "France and Germany will set up a Defense and Security Council, President Macron announced. During a joint press conference with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, President Macron said that it will meet regularly "to provide operational solutions to our shared strategic https://t.co/8R17TyIt7N " / X Billionaire Bill Ackman Warns Harvard Endowment Faces Financial Reckoning Trump: EU threatens €100 billion in taxes - Blick Second US fighter jet lost in Red Sea after going overboard during landing | World News | Sky News

Markets : time for deals, agree to talk, de-escalation talks ?... Mark Carney tell Trump how it is (whoops), Pakistan-India tensions though, UK-India trade deal done, UK and U.S trade deal ion the making, China and the European Parliament have agreed to simultaneously and comprehensively lift restrictions on mutual exchanges >>>Trump is bringing Eurasia together.. and finally U.S will meet China in Geneva this weekend - Ice breaker talks >>> decent spike HSI, SPX, no follow through, yet anyway, market always thought tariffs would narrow, de-escalation in CH, tariffs talks an ongoing process, VdL 'scientist deal' in place...(pretty key long-term), Merz in on 2nd round Powell will try to remain as 'neutral' as possible tonight, data mixed to still solid (NFP) Officials in Pakistan report that the Pakistani Armed Forces has launched a retaliatory attack against India, in response to missile strikes tonight against several targets in Pakistan Back in 1999, the dollar made up 71% of global currency reserves and gold was at $255. Today, the dollar's share reduced to 58% and gold is at $3300 (end of April), listen to Buffet : '' The US Dollar is Done !...''..It’s a good idea to be out of a currency that is going to “hell”, pretty strong words there !! China says the "US has long been using all kinds of despicable methods to steal other countries' secrets, interfere in their internal affairs and commit subversion." At Sorbonne University in Paris, Emmanuel Macron & Ursula von der Leyen announced: • €500M specifically targeting American scientists • Higher grants + longer contracts for researchers • Fast-tracked immigration for top talent The message was crystal clear The UK-India trade deal means Indian workers temporarily in the UK will be exempt from paying National Insurance for three years, UK also close to trade deal with U.S Summary of the last 5 days in #gold: US paper traders shorted gold while China was on holiday. Chinese traders bought physical gold upon returning from holiday. Lost amidst the noise: China increasingly controls global gold prices, which has major implications for FX over time U.S-Japan trade deal : Strong words from Akazawa: "We have been telling them that the entire series of tariffs are regrettable and have strongly insisted they be revised. Unless this demand is acknowledged in an ultimate package, there is no way we can agree to a deal." “Tariffs are the largest tax hike since the 1960s, so you can probably take 2-3% off growth. And you will probably hit new lows.” - Paul Tudor Jones, CAUTION : If term premium rises to 1.5% (50-year avg), 10-year yields would go up to 6% Such a move could cause another 25–30% drop in Treasury bond prices This is a possibility that should NOT be overlooked/Thread Unrealised gains tax will be a ‘disaster’ for Australia/video WARREN BUFFETT ON THE U.S. BUDGET DEFICIT WARREN BUFFETT ON THE U.S. BUDGET DEFICIT  "We still have very substantial inflation in the United States, but it's never been runaway…yet. And that's not something we want to try and experiment with, because it feeds on itself. I wouldn't want the job of trying to correct what's going on in revenue & expenditures of the United States — with roughly a 7% gap, when probably a 3% gap is sustainable. And the further away you get from that, the more you get to where the uncontrollable begins… It's a job I don't want, but it's a job I think should be done — and Congress does not seem good at doing it." Daniela Cambone-Taub on X: "Buffett : The US Dollar is Done ! It’s a good idea to be out of a currency that is going to “hell” https://t.co/iZenfYK3il " / X China injects 'tactical' monetary stimulus ahead of US trade meeting | Reuters US, China to hold ice-breaker trade talks in Geneva on Saturday | Reuters Conservative Merz elected German chancellor after initial debacle | Reuters Arnaud Bertrand on X: "It's done: China and the European Parliament have agreed to simultaneously and comprehensively lift restrictions on mutual exchanges. Trump is bringing Eurasia together 😊 https://t.co/QXXhBM4wcP " / X Nvidia CEO says missing China AI market would be 'tremendous loss' Brian Krassenstein on X: "BREAKING: Everything we know about the India And Pakistan conflict the last 90 minutes: - India attacked Pakistan, firing missiles at multiple sites, both in Pakistan and Kashmir, in Operation Sindoor - Pakistan shot down 2 Indian jets - Pakistan then attacked multiple targets https://t.co/pVTa91pguN " / X Really American 🇺🇸 on X: "BREAKING: In an epic moment, Rep. Mark Pocan shreds Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent so badly he is speechless when asked who pays tariffs. Pocan reclaims his time, saying "I'm not going to waste my time, having you go uh uh uh." This is how it's done.🔥 https://t.co/hNXWGB4GvC " / X India trade deal could undercut UK business, opposition parties say Scoop: White House seeks to hasten nuclear deployment Ole Lehmann on X: "If you're a scientist in America right now, Europe just made you an offer you can't refuse: €500M. 7-year guaranteed funding. Unprecedented academic freedom. Right as Trump slashes US research funding. The shocking EU strategy that aims to poach America's brightest 🧵: https://t.co/xyh0exNPGB " / X Japan's tariff envoy says Tokyo insisting on U.S. rethink - The Japan Times Not so fast! CALL TO ACTIVISM on X: "Mark Carney just dropped a HAMMER on Trump: Trump: The USMC is great for all countries. Carney: Some things about it are gonna have to change, and part of the way you've conducted these tariffs has taken advantage of existing aspects of USMCA. So it's gonna have to change. https://t.co/Um6ag2YZeN " / X Special Situations 🌐 Research Newsletter (Jay) on X: "Canada PM Carney says 'Canada is not for sale, it won't be for sale ever..' US President Trump: 'Never say never' at the end of the video https://t.co/phoA3t0ojh " / X Li Zexin on X: "Highways jammed, train tickets sold out, no more rooms... In the past 5 days, Chinese people made 314 million domestic trips, spending $25 billion on tourism. What a "collapsing" economy🤷‍♂️ https://t.co/3qFqSArNZI " / X big if true, what recession David Lee on X: "I have said before Hong Kong is transforming from a western focused financial center to a financial center for Global South. Hong Kong will be China’s SGE offshore gold trading center" / X 𝘊𝘰𝘳𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘦 on X: "🇺🇸🇨🇳 Every time an American politician opens their mouth about China, they act like the US is some benevolent sugar daddy who ‘built’ China. No, clown — you outsourced to get cheap labor, made trillions in profit, and now you’re mad China didn’t stay poor like you hoped. That’s https://t.co/clKG2S95sk " / X They are too late.. Michael Pettis on X: "1/4 Bloomberg argues that "President Xi Jinping’s government is showing signs of increased sophistication when it comes to geo-economic strategy" in its dealings with the EU, and this is probably true. https://t.co/4TyjvBQKOM via @economics" / X Bravos Research on X: "CAUTION: If term premium rises to 1.5% (50-year avg), 10-year yields would go up to 6% Such a move could cause another 25–30% drop in Treasury bond prices This is a possibility that should NOT be overlooked. https://t.co/EsmyzB6qDl " / X

Markets : Berkshire top as Warren leaves, PLTR's crazy valuations (know what your are buying..), GOLD (up 3-5pct in 2days) is 'sniffing out' something that hasn't surfaced on mainstream markets (or reacting to a possible USD realignement?, TWD, HKD, who's next ?).., Equity markets have had a great rally since latre April, beware! reduce risk looks very wise...if not time for a hedging trade again...looks very reasonable IMHO ! Taiwan dollar rally : a sign of global realignment , HKMA spent record amount of USD to keep HKD within the peg, GOLD move, which USD pair is next ? watch out for cracks appearing is some places, FX has been a forgotten risk out there, for years PF and others have been accumulating USD and remained unhedged..liquidity will never be there when they want to hedge , bring money home/rapatriation now after years of accumulating, when the dam breaks, beware of binary events is various places and dysfunctional markets in some parts going forward ..>>> a REVERSE of 1998 Asian crisis, a higher CNH would be a huge tell ! The NY Fed's measure of inflation persistence (the "multivariate core trend" rate) stood at 3% in March/Thread The Tariff bomb detonates this week / Thread #PLTR : if i read the earnings report correctly..it grows now slower than most average tech company, and it is priced at 25x higher than the average tech Co.. hummm Canada and the European Union agree to deepen free trade ties and economic cooperation Xi Jinping to visit Russia on May 7–10 for WWII Victory Anniversary celebrations Buffet: “The opportunity to deploy cash will come in the next 5 years” Basel III, in July : Gold becomes a Tier One asset for western central bank Saudi Arabia reports first-quarter deficit of US$15.65 billion. Declining oil prices and voluntary production cuts have weighed on Saudi revenue in recent years “We are now going from a predictable trade regime to what is going to be a new equilibrium,” IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said. “The way from here to there, very uncertain.” US, Canadian farmers face soaring fertilizer prices amid Trump trade war The delinquency rate on US commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) for offices SURGED to 10.3% in April, near the highest EVER Taiwan dollar rally a sign of global trade realignment | Taiwan News | May. 6, 2025 12:28 Taiwan dollar's record rally is a trade-war tremor | Reuters >>> possibly the start of something big, remember FX risk has been all but forgotten for years, big picture PF and others have been accumulating USD for a long time, and keeping most of them, often unhedged... this could start to hurt, as Bessent and Co keep pushing with tariffs (and again don't forget 'fx manipulation' has been mentioned in ALL tariffs chatters, it IS clearly included, various foreign countries will need to accept some form of currency appreciation... Palantir Stock Slides Despite Strong Earnings. That’s the Price of a Sky-High Valuation. Slow growth and crazy valuations...25x higher than your average tech stock.. Global economy already feeling drag from Trump tariffs | Reuters Michael Pettis on X: "1/7 “We are now going from a predictable trade regime to what is going to be a new equilibrium,” IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said. “The way from here to there, very uncertain.” https://t.co/XqfxUVzpMZ via @business" / X US, Canadian farmers face soaring fertilizer prices amid Trump trade war | Reuters Milken Crowd Warms Up to Tariffs While Condemning All the Chaos - Scott Bessent walked on stage at the largest gathering in months of Wall Street’s champions of global trade, aiming to explain why President Donald Trump is putting up hurdles to global trade. Fingertips steepled, his eyes panning, the Treasury secretary told a quiet crowd that tariffs, tax cuts and deregulation are “interlocking parts of an engine” to boost America’s clout — emphasizing it’s all thoughtfully designed. He soon paused: “I hope you can see the bigger picture now.” The verdict came swiftly: Investing titans and financial leaders at the Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills lined up to say they can live with tariffs and a reworking of trade — just get it settled  soon   Saudi Arabia reports first-quarter deficit of US$15.65 billion - The Business Times Brian Krassenstein on X: "WARNING: The Tariff bomb detonates this week: - Trade War Finally will be felt: Tens of billions in new import taxes land on store shelves this week. - Tomorrow 5 million student-loan borrowers back on the hook Trump ended the federal pause. Collection agencies resume https://t.co/DuTjhVkJx5 " / X Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on X: "“President Trump intends to usher in the most prosperous decade in American history—but not at the cost of the spiritual degradation of the working class.” In The Wall Street Journal , I outline @POTUS’s 3 steps to economic growth: https://t.co/axwUOiZf5Q " / X Basel III finalisation in the EU: the key elements and how they make the EU banking system more resilient This Florida Homebuilder And Former State Legislator Is Now A Billionaire Over the weekend,  the neoconservative David Brooks wrote this in an OpEd in the NY Times, "Trumpism… is primarily about the acquisition of power — power for its own sake . It is a multifront assault to make the earth a playground for ruthless men, so of course any institutions that might restrain power must be weakened or destroyed. Trumpism is about ego, appetite and acquisitiveness and is driven by a primal aversion to the higher elements of the human spirit — learning, compassion, scientific wonder, the pursuit of justice. … What is happening now is not normal politics. We’re seeing an assault on the fundamental institutions of our civic life, things we should all swear loyalty to — Democrat, independent or Republican. It’s time for a comprehensive national civic uprising. It’s time for Americans in universities, law, business, nonprofits and the scientific community, and civil servants and beyond to form one coordinated mass movement. Trump is about power. The only way he’s going to be stopped is if he’s confronted by some movement that possesses rival power. … I’m really not a movement guy. I don’t naturally march in demonstrations or attend rallies that I’m not covering as a journalist. But this is what America needs right now." Nick Timiraos on X: "The NY Fed's measure of inflation persistence (the "multivariate core trend" rate) stood at 3% in March. January and February were revised down to 2.9% (prev 3.1 and 3%, respectively). The recent low for this somewhat-revision-prone series was 2.5% in June. https://t.co/lM18LJG7w4 " / X