SPX500 6630+ stop buying + crude selling, CTA's / Lebanon key to fragile 'ceasefire', art of the deal, 25th amendment
- sc0172
- 2 hours ago
- 3 min read
Iran war update : reports suggesting that NO energy tankers have actually gone through the strait, yet...Trump 'ceasefire didn't include Lebanon'....then Pakistan said US and Israel actually agreed to it initially....The Iran ceasefire is being called a “pause.” , also shows the U.S. used overwhelming force—and still could not control the outcome >>> that IS a structural shift in power. Israel launched its largest assault on Lebanon since the start of its invasion, targeting more than 100 Hezbollah command centres and military sites - clearly not is all well, yet anyway.., Iranian delegation set to arrive in Islamabad on Thursday night despite ceasefire violation >>> crude up 3pct again, just under $100.., did Iran get conned by Trump and Pakistan to gain some times ? possibly, fact is ships are not flowing through the strait...a LOT of well-timed trades on Monday again.. (cough!....totally insane what's going on..), '''this whole thing on Monday looked to be staged to save face''', 15 US points to a sudden 10 Iran points..which are both very different....short-term : 2w 'hold' is or was good news for 'markets' but plenty of way this could unravel !
Markets : reminder that $8T of UST debt is rolling over this year, dwarfing anything coming in the next decade (create a risk-off environment for buyers to comeback ?), market got caught short, CTA's (HAD to BUY) bought large Eq on break of 200dma 6630, and sold crude on stop loss basis, this IS what happened, now let's see but IMHO this so-called ceasefire that isn't one, is a pretty fragile one.. >>> art of the deal...threaten to blow up everything, stage some ceasefire with 'draft' tweets, get nada, claim winning bigly, get nothing, and markets rallied hard...?... one can only fear we are going to correct lower again in risk, plenty of noise regarding 25th amendment, to keep everyone busy !
No matter what the US and Iran agree over the future of Hormuz, the strait’s status will change. But the waterway will never be as critical as it was six weeks ago: Iran's rivals will rush to build more bypass oil pipelines
#USD #UST The US needs to grow the economy roughly 5% a year just to pay down the debt. Not to reduce it. Just to service it/Thread
#USD will remain under pressure long-term.. Alessandro on X: "The US needs to grow the economy roughly 5% a year just to pay down the debt. Not to reduce it. Just to service it. @TaviCosta says that's unsustainable and it's the biggest challenge the US faces from here. Argentina's entire stock market is 10% of GDP. The US is the opposite https://t.co/Vi3soLRJfz" / X
Arnaud Bertrand on X: "The war with Iran will doubtlessly be studied for decades but what's already pretty clear at this stage is how much of a strategic defeat it is for the U.S. and Israel, perhaps the worst ever in their history (which is actually what former Israeli PM Yair Lapid already called it: https://t.co/stbdWgcVCq" / X
Jürgen Nauditt 🇩🇪🇺🇦 on X: "Orban's betrayal goes much, much further than you think. Secret 12-Point Plan: In December 2025, the Orban government signed a comprehensive agreement with Moscow on cooperation in the areas of economics, energy, culture, and education, — Politico. More and more evidence is https://t.co/l8BM2PEpLb" / X
This is good :-) Barney Panofsky's Best Intentions on X: "10/10. No notes. https://t.co/YQ3JPNIR02" / X
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