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Brace for U.S CPI & Budget statement, deficit forecast widening sharply to $295bn, fiscal pressure UP, watch live :

  • sc0172
  • 3 hours ago
  • 3 min read
US July Budget deficit set to more than double in July as the daily increase hits $10bn check it out on the PVM debt monitor Live US Debt Monitor
US July Budget deficit set to more than double in July as the daily increase hits $10bn check it out on the PVM debt monitor Live US Debt Monitor

  • UST : #duration long end yields are as much about the monthly US budget deficit numbers as they are about CPI, so super key data again, with the expected release of the 26th July auctions at 8pm CET >>> The Global Fiscal Train Wreck...U.S. Treasury is paying $3 billion a day in interest on national debt, says the CBO...US July budget deficit expected to widen sharply to nearly $295bn as fiscal pressures intensify.” “US fiscal gap set to widen in July, keeping $2tn-plus FY26 deficit firmly in focus.” CBO

  • Markets : U.S equity market implied volatility is pretty low right now, so an OUTSIDE CPI number will have a decent impact, for both risk and bonds, then the USDollar, Japan's 2-Year Yield hits 1.64% for the first time since 1995, Panama Canal fees hit record high as El Niño and Iran war choke shipping, there are now over 1.1 million homes for sale in the US, the highest inventory since 2019, Largest Foreign Holders of U.S. Treasuries  Japan sitting there at #1 with roughly $1.2 Trillion worth #USDJPY >>> markets QUIET, ALMOST ASLEEP, so Do watch out later on, watch UST 30's Duration etc.. 10's sitting uncomfortable near recent highs in yields terms 4.69%

  • Wave of US tariff refunds flows back to Chinese firms, buoying profits by millions

  • US Government Borrows $800 Billion In 3 Months "Warsh can talk tough, but the math indicates he has no choice but to keep the printing presses rolling, which means inflation will only move higher."

  • Iran updates : New attacks on shipping as Iran war talks hit fresh impasse. Before the rhetoric escalated again, Pakistan, along with Qatar, had raised hopes that the two sides might be closing in on a deal that would in effect reopen the vital waterway

  • Poorer Americans are struggling to make ‘ends meet’, top Fed official says. Boston central bank branch head Susan Collins would back September interest rate rise inflation remains hot >> today's CPI key



This week should help answer a key question: is the US economy beginning to crack, or merely cooling?

Three releases matter:

  • Today: July CPI. Core consensus is +0.2% month-on-month. A stronger print would revive the prospect of a September Fed hike.

  • Thursday: PPI and jobless claims—testing pipeline inflation and whether July’s 23,000 payroll decline was a one-off or the start of a weaker labour trend.

  • Friday: Retail sales and consumer sentiment—the crucial read on the consumer and broader growth outlook.

Core inflation remains around 3.3% and is proving sticky, while the labour market has clearly softened.spglobal+1

Soft data would support a Fed hold, lower Treasury yields, a softer dollar and stronger gold. Hot data would reinforce the stagflation trade: long-dated yields, already elevated, move higher and equities lose some of their support. By Friday, markets should have a much clearer sense of which regime is taking hold



>>> “Bond Traders can stop panicking when the Fed starts panicking.” The bond market is signalling concern about inflation and do nothing about it will only drive bond yields higher.





























 
 
 

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