top of page

UBS more 'gating', Cliffwater / Inflation Warnings : WTO, Lagarde & FED officials / Diesel shortages! / SPX 200dma!..

  • sc0172
  • Mar 27
  • 4 min read

  • Iran war update : both claiming the other one is begging for a deal, both have very different interests , clearly Trump is worried about 10's UST yields going above 4.5%, and Iran knows it, together with equity markets which didn't really react on the ''10day TACO headline last night'', markets learnings it's just 'nonsense short-term market manipulation', UAE pushes for international force to reopen Hormuz-France and many other countries trying hard too, Bessent's insurance program allegedly ready soon too

  • Markets : UBS suspends withdrawals on real-estate fund (more GATING..), Cliffwater is a $33B fund invested in 50+ other funds that are all gating simultaneously, JGB's, the Japan 2-year yield has hit 30-year highs, FED officials warning on inflation, Miran talks further balance-sheet reduction, Lagarde warns Middle East war energy disruptions may last years, Global trading system hit by 'worst disruptions in the past 80 years': WTO chief >>> given all this...markets look to be totally underestimating the issues ahead (globally), technically SPX500, while below 200dma 6630, we have room towards 6000-6100 area, obviously much depends on MiddleEast situation, and length of the troubles, Crude still near highs of the week, didn't really react to Trump's mini TACO last night, in a way we are extending the problems/goods disruption etc.., ENERGY lockdowns are happening already, it is happening, HUGE timing for farming in Australia, seems some of them running out of diesel already=no seeding ...

  • Britain and France will hold talks this week with military representatives from 30 countries to form a coalition to reopen the Strait of Hormuz-AFP

  • Hugely consequential decision allowing Morgan Stanley to transfer $85 billion of broker-dealer assets to its insured bank. Precedent setting and reminiscent of similar moves in 2007-08./Thread - pretty unusual move, thus important !

  • Goldman Sachs downgrades India to Market Weight and lowers NIFTY target to 25,900 from 29,300 Key Reasons for Downgrade - Higher Oil Prices, weak FII flows


This is the real reason oil is not freely crossing the Strait of Hormuz: it`s not just the ship risk, but a single cargo of a VLCC tanker, carrying up to 2 mio barrels, is typically worth well over $100 mio.

If Iran maintains control of the Strait for an extended period, the World economy could split into even more distinct geopolitical alliances.





NATO will remember this for a very long time—well beyond the next decade, well into the next generation. Trump has effectively shouted to the whole alliance that the United States no longer needs anything from them, and Europe has understood the message perfectly.

As a result, vast sums are being redirected into European defence projects, manufacturers, and supply chains. U.S. defence contractors are likely seething at the prospect








https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/JP2Y you have to go back to early 90's to have 2y JGB yields 'this high'


More 'GATING' , most likely not the last (were investors aware of this scenario?..pretty sure not all of them..)..UBS gates €400mn property fund for up to 3 years.. Swiss bank said liquid assets in the Germany-based fund were insufficient to meet rise in redemption requests


“It all works great when no one wants their money back.”


Every year around this time, the biggest asset managers publish their annual letters. And every year, the message is identical: don't sell, don't time the market, just keep your money right where it is. Funny how that advice PERFECTLY aligns with their business model


Will you want to own one of them?..















 
 
 

Comments

bottom of page