U.S ISM : very stagflationary / BYD / Supreme court race : Wisconsin on the map / Liberation or isolation day ?
- Stéphan
- Apr 2
- 3 min read
Tariffs update: President Trump is scheduled to announce new tariffs on 2 April at 4 pm ET, likely targeting a broad range of countries >>> feels like consensus (if there is any) is for 20% blanket tariff acros board, or the 'slightly bullish' case of a more targeted 12-20% on specifics countries/sectors, quite honestly anything goes, leaking out trial balloons to the media, trade policy on the fly if you ask me!...IF tariffs starts tomorrow then only a blanket 20pct or xxx pct strategy is possible!...Trump will be pissed off with the Wisconsin judge choice!.. SPX 5500lows vs 5800 range should cover it in short-term, uncertainty will remain, sell rallies to re-hedge FXland, crossjpy's lower on a decent risk-off, eventually USD become a bit isolated, but that's probably for later
Elon Musk’s preferred candidate has been trounced in a pivotal Supreme Court race in Wisconsin, widely seen as a referendum on him and Trump's agenda-FT
Putin’s key investment negotiator heads to Washington for talks with Trump envoy, sources say
Marko Kolanovic/JPM : Would anyone be surprised if Trump attacks Iran? I guess Not. But I bet everyone would be surprised if China uses that as an opportunity to take Taiwan. I think they will likely do it during Trump presidency
One of the ugliest most stagflationary ISM manufacturing report seen in a long time. No sign of any hiring reacceleration in the JOLTS series for February, fact is nobody is quitting because they are afraid they won’t find a job, hiring is very slow (consistent with unemployment more like 5%) - The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -3.7 percent on April 1, down from -2.8 percent on March 28
Just two weeks ago, BYD unveiled the world’s first megawatt supercharger. Now Zeekr and Huawei say they have megawatt chargers too. This reminds me of how DeepSeek’s R1 was quickly followed by world-class AI models from ByteDance, Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, etc #TSLA
Federal funding cuts are raising questions about university endowments. Here’s what some are worth and how they work
Elon Musk’s days as a senior White House adviser may be coming to an end — along with his government-slashing Department of Government Efficiency, Trump suggests
Nick Timiraos on X: "Commentary from the purchasing manager index on manufacturing released by the ISM, which showed that prices rose at their fastest rate since mid-2022 even though factory activity contracted: “Customers are pulling in orders due to anxiety about continued tariffs and pricing https://t.co/a6jx4tnwuF" / X
Speaker Mike Johnson on X: "A handful of Republicans just joined every House Democrat to take down a rule. This means we can’t take any further action on President Trump’s agenda this week: No SAVE Act No vote to address rogue judges attacking Trump No votes to repeal Biden regulations https://t.co/Fc3FLZTS5Y" / X
Just before the vote MUSK: Losing this judge race has good chance of causing Republicans to lose control of the house. You lose control of the house, there will be nonstop impeachment hearings and subpoenas
Tymofiy Mylovanov on X: "Karoline Leavitt: President Trump is frustrated with leaders [Ukraine and Russia]. He wants this war to end. Men are dying on both sides. We are with the Ukrainians. We’re also engaged with the both sides. 1/ https://t.co/LDE15gHAF9" / X
He will be welcome in Europe
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