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U.S inflation 4.2%, 3y highs / ORCL 'more debt' / PIMCO new 'credit loss cycle' / OpenAI 'drastic price cuts' considered..

  • sc0172
  • 17 hours ago
  • 3 min read

  • Yes, the World cup kicks off today!

  • Iran war updates : Oil tankers go dark to sneak more barrels through Hormuz (help explains relatively soft crude prices?), Tehran strikes ships in Hormuz, launches attacks on Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan after US assault

  • U.S inflation hit 4.2%, a 3-year high. But strip out the oil war and core inflation actually cooled a little. This is-looks like a supply shock, not demand. The Fed cannot fix the Strait of Hormuz with rate hikes, though the longer crude prices stay high, the hardest it'll be to deal with inflation, add the K economy to it and it's a nightmare.. >>> "Simply put, the inflation of the Iran war will soon force the US (and by extension, much of the West) to choose between “save the currency” (let bond yields rise sharply with inflation, i.e., bond prices FALL sharply), breaking everything but the USD and gold) or “save the bond market” (print USD to cap UST yields to maintain nominal US government solvency, turbocharging the already accelerating and soon-to-be problematic inflation)."

  • Markets : U.S markets fell as U.S CPI rose to a 3y high, Iran worries on the increase again and SpaceX pre IPO nerves tested, FX super quiet, although #CHF a little softer (200dma #EURCHF is around current levels 0.9230.. ), broadly speaking we expect SNB to be unchanged next week (economy soft, inflation near lows..nothing to do, see here..), and rest of the world likely to hike (ECB to hike today all about 'inflation forecast' going fwd, BoJ priced in, FOMC probably unch but hawkish), should keep CHF on soft side, #Oracle falls after hours on 'higher spending', more debt yet again!, which is slowly but surely being questioned across AI-Tech sector, SpaceX a clear 'sentiment' indicator for the whole sector, either way !, OpenAI considers drastic price cuts, anticipating war for users with Anthropic

  • Bank of America told clients to take profits. Seven of the bank's ten bear market signposts have triggered

  • ChatGPT getting worse, did you notice ?  ChatGPT feels dumber than it used to. Your prompts that worked six months ago produce worse results now. The writing sounds flatter. The ideas sound safer >> You thought it was you. It is not you. Researchers at Oxford and Cambridge published a paper in Nature proving what is happening. They call it Model Collapse (Thread)

















 
 
 

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