U Mich : inflation exp up, NFP stronger / Crude 5mos highs, $$$ up, 10's UST 4.8% / Risk down / Big week ahead
- Stéphan
- Jan 13
- 3 min read
Week ahead : U.S and UK CPI (pretty key!), ECB minutes, Chines GDP data, FOMC beige Book and earnings kick off with banks. Friday, NFP rose 256K: The latest snapshot of the US labor market affirmed what Federal Reserve officials have made clear in recent days: Interest-rate cuts are on hold for the foreseeable future >>> reality is 1st FED cut now not fully priced till Sep 2025, that's now decently repriced in rates markets
Crude 5months highs >>> not helping forward looking inflation expectations, U Michigan survey : inflation worries highest since 2008
The ECB can ease policy further this year but must find a middle ground that neither induces a recession nor causes an undue delay in curbing inflation-Philip Lane
Elon Musk is being investigated by the UK Counter-terrorism unit over fears that he is trying to incite violence in the UK (EU and other places in same direction)
Switzerland drifting towards NATO – largest party
For markets, the issue maybe that 41% of revs in the S&P500 come are foreign, a recession in either EU or China will thus have a big impact
UST 10-year yield has risen ~440 basis points over the last 5 years to 4.75%
To Interact With the Real World, AI Will Gain Physical Intelligence-Wired
iPhone loses global market share to rivals with Apple AI absent in China
House Republicans face massive debt problem-The Hill >>> you bet, but note most of the G7 countries to in reality with debt to GDP at or heading +120%
Trump’s New Economist Makes the Case for 20% Tariffs
Bitcoiners spent five years advocating for an ETF, but now that it’s here, it could increase Bitcoin’s correlation with traditional markets... #BTC
The Kobeissi Letter on X: "BREAKING: US bankruptcies hit a 14-year high in 2024, rising by 9% year-over-year, with a total of 694 large companies going bankrupt. Over the last 2 years, bankruptcies are up 87% and have officially exceeded filings in 2020. In December 2024, 61 large firms filed for https://t.co/fPCrIa6q27" / X
According to Italian PM, Georgia Meloni, Russia is bogged down in Ukraine and has captured only 0.06% of Ukrainian territory in the past year, dismantling the narrative that “Russia has already won.” Meloni also predicts that Trump will not abandon Ukraine.
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