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Trump TACO'ed early..now a war he can't win and can't end? / Crude up & down 25%, risk rallies back, USD softens again

  • sc0172
  • 4 days ago
  • 4 min read

  • Markets :   WATER CRISIS - Dependency on Desalination :  Kuwait: 90%  Israel: 75%  Saudi Arabia: 70%  Qatar: 50%  UAE: 42%  Iran: 2%, Iran is Trump's Vietnam, Kharg Island: Iran’s oil lifeline that Donald Trump has left untouched, Google, Meta, and Oracle are on a $1 trillion borrowing spree >> IRAN regime KNEW they needed an oil shock and thus a market sell-off to get a TACO..eventually...(admitting defeat in reality)..and they got it, pretty early, last night already (NO pain tolerance..).... relief for markets and folks locally....! the war isn't over, though they threw the kitchen sink at each other for 10days, in a VERY destructive way, for all involved...Trump panicked, changed goals, declared victory.. NO clean win whatever anyone says, in fact it's a war Trump can't win and can't end... it's been painful economically, that's for sure >>> The Iranians are most interested in delivering pain as directly to Trump as possible, it's the protracted war that Iran wanted, and the US and Israel are afraid of of it... you could argue it's now a crisis (less fierce in the short-term, but could last longer..), one can fear the goal from new radical Khamenei is to EXPULSE the U.S out of the Middle East.. IRAN WILL NOT accept ceasefire without guarantee another attack won't happen..>>> Crude up and down 30pct (totally nuts..really..), risk rallies again overnight, USD weaker as you would expect, This is really now calling for the end of U.S hegemony, dominance, even PETRODOLLAR's..., shorting USD again is what Mr Market will do...

  • If Iran succeeds in pressing its advantage: “It will destroy the Trump presidency; it will destroy the GOP for a generation; and it would finally end the entrapment of the United States by its junior geopolitical ally.”

  • While Trump builds military coalitions and bombs the Middle East, China just made its move. Wang Yi announces: zero tariffs on 100% of African imports, effective May 1st

  • JP Morgan on how Operation Epic Fury would end: "Resource risk will begin to outweigh increasingly marginal military gains and the conclusion to the conflict will come down to the three M’s : Munitions, Markets and Midterms."

  • OpenAI's massive Stargate data center canceled as firm can't reach terms with Oracle, operator struggles with reliability issues — Meta said to be interested in snatching excess capacity


Clearly this, G7 and Crude prices.. TACO'ed .. Trump Advisers Urge Him to Find Iran Exit Ramp, Fearing Political Backlash. The president told reporters on Monday that he thought the war in Iran would be over ‘very soon’. (WSJ)



Trump says Iran’s new leader is “unacceptable.” China replies: the decision was made according to Iran’s Constitution, not Washington’s approval rating. That’s the real humiliation.


Iranian Brigadier General Masoud Akhtari: “Because we destroyed the radars, Trump and Netanyahu are trapped in a slaughter house now in the Middle East. $150 per barrel of oil, which is coming will Cause global economic chaos”.... >>> Trump would like it to be over, the question is what does Iran really want...push all the way, get US out of ME... ? watch out..


Sumitomo Chemical declared force majeure yesterday, making it the fifth Asian chemical company in a single week. First Chandra Asri in Indonesia, then Yeochun NCC in South Korea. By March 5, Petrochemical Corporation of Singapore had declared force majeure on 1.1 million tons of ethylene capacity on Jurong Island. Aster followed a day later with its cracker running at half capacity. The root cause is the same for all five: naphtha, the feedstock these plants break down into the base chemicals behind plastics, rubber, and packaging. Asian steam crackers source most of their naphtha from the Middle East, and virtually all of it transits the Strait of Hormuz. When the Strait closed, all five lost their feedstock within days. Five force majeures in seven days. This is a massive disruption of the chemicals that hold the global economy together. Polymer prices are already up double digits. Everything downstream gets more expensive from here.













 
 
 

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