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SPX500 back to pre war level / Warsh ready / RBA hawkish / WTI $96, physical $150 / Next Iran talks in Islamabad on Thur

  • sc0172
  • 10 hours ago
  • 4 min read

  • Iran war update : 'physical prices of crude' still near $150.. ...Trump was so predictable over week-end and his friendly chat just open the U.S market open.. (so much insider going on, no doubt, and markets learn to 'read' him quit easily..), Vance says 'the ball is in Iran's court', progress made etc, talks will go on for a while, During the weekend meeting, the US proposed a 20-year “suspension” of all nuclear activity, while Iran renewed a suggestion for a halt of up to five years, the NYT reported, US and Iranian delegations will return to Islamabad later this week to resume the talks, possibly closing a deal... >>> big build up and possible disappointment for the weekend again!.. let's see

  • Markets : Fed nominee Warsh clears a hurdle to Senate hearing, RBA's Hauser hawkish, Sing CB tightens monetary policy, crude down back to where it was on Friday, while SPX500 is actually higher than pre war 27th Feb, and the market is about to discover the 'REAL' cost of the closure of the strait of Hormuz (so far nothing has effectively happened - the shortages and inflation will be felt form here on with a lag, now kicking in.., focus back on credit markets too ''From private credit fund withdrawals to the Fed pulling bank exposure data and pressure now spreading through the financial system'', and Trump will most likely focus on Cuba next ! >>> price of diamonds fall to all time lows (diamonds are for ever...but..), the blockade in Hormuz is far from over really, risk is Iran won't fold as easily as markets thinks, commodity prices (crude oil) on your screen don't always reflect reality in the PHYSICAL world!...

  • Virgin Atlantic’s new CEO said he can see about six weeks of secure jet-fuel supplies before the outlook gets murkier

  • OpenAI investors question $852bn valuation as strategy shifts. Chief executive Sam Altman refocuses AI company as Anthropic tests its early lead

  • Hungary PM  Péter Magyar : "I am not going to call Trump from my side. If he wants, his administration can call me and talk to me"

  • China for the United States: “If you want war, you will get war; if you want to destroy China, you will be destroyed. China will not fire the first shot, but China will not allow you to fire the second shot” President of China Energy Security Institute

  • MAGA's policies towards the EU are proving really counter productive for the US & really good for the EU - “buy European” provisions; India, Australia, Mercosur trade deals; military/defence self-sufficiency; UK pivot towards the EU; European far-right poss in retreat






  1. US and Iran Mull Second Meeting in Bid to Revive Ceasefire Talks

    • The US and Iran are in discussions about holding another round of face-to-face negotiations for a longer-term ceasefire, people familiar with the matter said, after talks in Islamabad led by Vice President JD Vance failed to produce a breakthrough.

    • The people, who asked not to be identified discussing private deliberations, said the goal is to hold fresh talks before a two-week ceasefire announced April 7 expires next week. One idea is to return to Islamabad for a second round, though other venues have also been discussed, they said.

    • The White House and the State Department didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment. CNN reported Monday that White House officials were discussing the possibility of another meeting, and Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said efforts are ongoing to resolve the outstanding issues between the US and Iran.

    • President Donald Trump signaled his own openness to more talks earlier Monday, saying Iran had reached out to the US. At the same time, he’s pressing ahead with a naval blockade of the vital Strait of Hormuz waterway as a way of ramping up pressure on the regime in Tehran. 

“We’ve been called this morning by the right people, the appropriate people, and they want to work a deal,” Trump said at the White House, without elaborating on who participated in the conversation


Oil supply crunch intensifies as last Hormuz tankers reach refineries. Final prewar cargoes to leave Gulf set to unload in coming days, escalating a global rush to secure barrels



Le Pen probably furious that the model they were going to 'offer' in France, wrecking EU form the inside etc, has been rejected in Hungary,.. Big problem for Farage in UK too one would assume







JP Morgan on the looming oil "flow shock": "Against this backdrop, reopening the Strait of Hormuz has become the market’s most time-sensitive priority. The last tanker to clear Hormuz on February 28 is expected to reach its destination around April 20, marking the point at which pre-closure barrels are fully exhausted from the global supply chain. Yet—and contrary to our expectations—large-scale refinery run cuts outside the Middle East have not materialized. Asian refiners appear to have reduced throughput by only around 2 mbd due to crude shortages in addition to seasonal maintenance, with China accounting for roughly 1 mbd, Japan 0.4 mbd, and the remainder spread across Singapore, Malaysia, and India. This implies that most of the missing 13 mbd of Persian Gulf supply has instead been bridged by a combination of aggressive inventory draws and involuntary demand destruction, as fuel availability becomes increasingly difficult to secure."




 
 
 

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