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Qatar Energy / UK gilts / Pentagon / Pearl Harbor ref ! a step too far / Quadruple witching OpEx expiry today

  • sc0172
  • 6 hours ago
  • 4 min read

  • '''"Who knows better about surprise than Japan?" Trump said, before adding, "Why didn't you tell me about Pearl Harbor?"''

  • UK, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Japan issue a joint statement expressing their “readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts” to ensure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, while welcoming countries undertaking preparations, coordinating strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) releases, and exploring ways to boost output. >>> it takes TWO to TACO.. Iran has a say in it..

  • Markets : BoE unchanged as expected (and pretty hawkish overall - sharp UK gilts yields move in 2y +40bps !! somebody blew up out there..), Software 'credit' gets all the headlines, building materials is quietly falling apart, JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs are now offering hedge funds ways to short the $1.8 trillion private credit market, good wrap on the Iran war from Ed Conway (Thread), Israeli soldiers have reportedly declared opposition to Benjamin Netanyahu during a clash in Lebanon (big if true) >>> slightly oversold Eq markets, liquidation in PM's last few days (ME accounts looking for 'any' usd liquidity..AND China buying big last 24hours...), Trump looking for some sort of 'off ramp' exit (allegedly) or will he go further in Iran with ground troops (seems unlikely, or suicidal ..probably just threats).., Pantagon asking for another $200bn for the war, 3weeks in, that's more of a sign that its not even close of being over though.. >>> HUGE quadruple witching OpEx day, watch moves into close..

  • FED : Near‑term inflation expectations have risen on supply shocks tied to energy and geopolitics, which tend to be episodic and act more like a tax on consumers. By contrast, longer‑term inflation expectations tied to wages, services, and consumption remain well anchored, suggesting demand‑driven inflation continues to ease. That distinction helps explain the Fed’s patience without taking rate cuts off the table this year.....U.S. M2 Money Supply hits new all-time high of $22.45 Trillion

  • QatarEnergy CEO says the Iranian attack overnight damaged ~17% of its LNG production capacity, and it would take 3-5 years to repair the damage.

  • Chinese government pours $20 billion into a revolutionary AI model — opening the

  • Private credit didn't blow up because of Blue Owl or bad software loans or AI disruption, that's just the symptoms, this disease comes back every 10+ years, seen it before over the last 35yeara in markets... >> it's just too much money, too much leverage, too little discipline (lazy), and a financial product sold as "safe" to people who didn't understand what they owned (driven by greed)..


Goldman Sachs on stocks: The Hormuz shock is the largest oil supply shock on record"Equity correction risk remains elevated in the near term, but we continue to think bear market risk remains limited. While geopolitical shocks and their market impact are difficult to time, we think equities have not priced in enough risk premium for the risk of a more lasting shock - based on the disruptions so far our economists have already reflected a worsening growth/inflation mix and raised their recession probability."









No-one on committee voted for a cut this time. And minutes say: "CPI inflation will be higher in the near term as a result of the new shock to the economy." Investors expect hikes, not cuts, later this year






















 
 
 

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