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Private credit is the new subprime / WTI back to +$90..ships hit in Hormuz / Market outcomes ALL a function of duration

  • sc0172
  • 17 hours ago
  • 3 min read

  • Markets : ALL outcome for markets are a function of time !! NO-ONE really knows how long the IRGC allows this to continue... (Trump of course wants-needs it to stop soon..), if it goes on and on, at some point it may go pretty wrong (credit is DEFO stirring the next shoe to drop, offshore USDollars in demand, cross currency basis on the move etc..), Oil tops $100 after 6 ships, including oil tankers are attacked on Gulf shipping, as mentioned, G7 release of crude reserve are quite useless in short-term, in fact it's more psychological than anything else, the war is not even over, he has to create another storm : The 16 US trading partners hit by Trump's '301' probes >>> DID Mr Market think Iran was joking around when they said the strait is and will remain close?......seems Iran is at war with the stock markets, oil prices, consumer inflation etc..not necessarily to inflict casualties...(U.S infrastructure hit VERY hard, 30years of build-up in the Middle-East and much destroyed in 10days... risk is WTI stays $85+ for rest of the year=inflation higher=no cuts=big trouble for anything leveraged on credit (take Salesforce example yesterday, irresponsible madness 'borrow more for share-buybacks').., given all the above, SPX back to 6000 area would not be too shocking...USD stays firm(er)..

  • Read a few of those recently “Our fund’s performance remains strong”, but we can’t meet the redemption requests''...hum

  • JPM-Kalanovic : To hedge against Oil shock and slowdown, one can short crowded AI cyclicals - momentum names that have not been impacted yet (but will be) such as $EWY $SNDK $WDC $MU

  • A "multitude" of intelligence reports provide "consistent analysis that the regime is not in danger" of collapse and "retains control of the Iranian public," said one of the sources

  • #Cliffwater : another...A $33,000,000,000 private credit fund just told investors: "You can't have your money back.".. #credit #liquidity or lack of..

  • Grundlach : A Private Credit Fund of Funds in 2026 seems to rather closely resemble a CDO-squared in early 2007...yeps..JP Morgan said it will likely (my interpretation) be demanding more collateral for their loans to Private Credit. That means JP Morgan believes the collateral values are down from the loan origination date






‘Qatar’s shutdown of LNG production at Ras Laffan has taken a third of global helium supply offline, threatening chip manufacturing, Bloomberg Economics said’



Market had already anticipated this with the price drop to 85-90 WTI... that is NOT the way to surprise markets and get best outcome/reaction... in fact how Trump does.. is pathetic..

Not winning.. again


Further cracks appearing...!!


















 
 
 

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