“Private Credit Cracking” headlines everywhere / WTI $96, risk is $150/ Recessions calls UP / Middle-East crisis extending
- sc0172
- 17 hours ago
- 4 min read
Ali Larijani, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, just made a very worrying statement : "The war will end only when Iran's adversaries understand they no longer have the right to violate Iranian territory and agree to pay COMPENSATION for the damages caused."...
Markets : WTI $100 nailed on, the real risk for global economy is $150 and for longer ( ALL ABOUT duration..for global economy..), markets tumble hard 10-20pct if ME troubles are prolonged for 2-3months let alone more, this IS the risk.. and PRIVATE CREDIT ! (the signs been there for few weeks, since Blue Owl..!!) is a BIG trouble, end of PETRODOLLAR decades upon us, with the closure of Hormuz.., recession calls will be on the increase this week..you can be sure of this!, now they been attacking desalination plants, this is terrible, horrible strategic decisions.. (Iran is 3% dependent on desalination - US allies in the region at 40-90%)...!!, Gulf countries as a whole are the second largest global fertilizer exporter, U.S logistics, data centres hit hard across ME (TECH economics weaker too..), China and Russia rammed into this war too.. >>> WTI crude trades just under $100 already, U.S economy losing jobs (net -142K job miss on Friday..), ''time to dust off 70s charts of two inflation surges and stagflation'', Iran would appear to be prepared to make war last for 6months (keep Hormuz shut for 90days..see below), and hit HARD the whole US and allies financial system, economic war.., cheap drones destroying equipment worth 10's of millions or more...think about this...., 30years ago in Iraq war we used to see CNN and daily news and videos of the war, every detailed shown as US dominated Iraq war...these days we see hardly anything... nothing at all, nada...!!... why not......weekend futures down just under 1pct and WTI seen around $96
How can war hit AI capex trade? Higher energy prices/power shortages, lower global GDP/demand, Helium and minerals shortages for semis, reducing GCC AI capex (~$150-200bn next 5y), budget shifts towards more popular expenditures, corporate spending cuts, etc../JPM...
Blackrock manages $11 Trillion, that's 11,000 Billions of dollars, and they had to say NO to people who only wanted to withdraw (ONLY..) 2.5 billion dollars, think about this, and read it again..
Japan’s ambitious national quantum strategy is accelerating research and industrialisation
Today only ~12.5% of loans (broadly syndicated) are trading at par. This number was 65% at the start of the year
The US just suspended sanctions on Russian oil to help pay for the war with Iran.,...
Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ on X: "BREAKING: Yesterday I wrote that ships in the Persian Gulf were changing their transponders to broadcast “Chinese Owner” and “All Chinese Crew” to avoid Iranian attack. The ocean’s rules had changed. The new rules were written in Mandarin. There is now a 30,000 ton Chinese https://t.co/yqU94ECdVz" / X
China pulse 🇨🇳 on X: "A minimum of 90 days of intellectual control over the Strait of Hormuz is necessary — says Iranian expert Khandouzi. According to him, on Monday, with the opening of global markets, we will see oil prices above $100. Control over the Strait of Hormuz must last at least 90 days https://t.co/zVJGITsfj7" / X
BlackRock isn't collapsing but here's what actually happened: investors tried to pull $1.2B from a $26B fund. BlackRock said no to half of them. Blackstone injected $400M of its own cash to cover exits. Blue Owl paused withdrawals entirely. The $1.8 trillion private credit industry is quietly showing cracks during a war, an oil spike, and a jobs miss. The timing is the story
The war in Iran has caused the biggest disruption in oil production in history. Whether it becomes the long-feared “nightmare scenario” for energy markets (and the global economy) now depends on the duration of the conflict.
Brian Allen on X: "🚨 The US just suspended sanctions on Russian oil to help pay for the war with Iran. Watch this exchange: BRENNAN: Russia was helping Iran. WRIGHT: Well, there’s been rumors of that. We don’t know if that’s true. BRENNAN: These Iranian drones have Russian parts. Russia has https://t.co/FmzVBkXKic" / X
Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ on X: "Nine days of the most intensive air campaign since 2003 and Kharg Island has not been touched. Kharg is a small rocky island 25 kilometers off Iran’s southern coast. It handles roughly two million barrels per day. Ninety percent of Iran’s crude oil exports flow through its https://t.co/JbGmg9eQhj" / X
Many more 'force majeur' out there
Mikkel Rosenvold on X: "Attacking desalination plants is NOT a front the US wants to open. Horrible, horrible strategic decision Iran is 3% dependent on desalination - US allies in the region at 40-90% https://t.co/CtJEL0Vw8i" / X
Ed Conway on X: "🎥IRAN WAR PRIMER Six days on from the start of this war, what have we learnt about the economic consequences? Here's our latest primer, covering: 1. Why gas prices are up so much more than oil 2. The ticking timebomb facing Gulf oil producers 3. It's not just oil/gas - we need https://t.co/nYY7cEuE9J" / X
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