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Writer's pictureStéphan

Powell : 2 more cuts in 2024 / Lagarde: Oct cut coming / France budget : higher corp taxes / Middle East step up




  • In a matter of days, China has gone from severe recession worries to posting its biggest daily stock market gain since 2008 #markets these days, shock and awe it was! >>> “.. no surprise, but GS Prime highlighted that Chinese stocks have been net bought for 9 straight sessions and last week saw the largest net buying ever by HFs on our record.”, #HSI index as a ref below

  • FT- It's hard, BUT, it seems 'Federal liquidity is falling outright and the market continues to rise. The pure theory of federal liquidity, aka "printer go Brr," is looking worse all the time.'

  • Middle East’s power scales tip as Israel senses Iran’s weakness. Regional tensions will remain high with neither Netanyahu’s coalition nor the Palestinians ready for a settlement (ex MI6 guy), no Crude prices reaction yet (one sided affair for now - no disruption)

  • ECB's Oct decision will reflect greater confidence on inflation, says Lagarde >>> Christine on the case for a cut this month!...after German inflation rate fell to 1.6% YoY in Sep, slightly below the expected 1.7%, mainly due to a sharp decline in energy prices (-7.6%)

  • Powell : Biggest Takeaway: "if the economy continues to perform as expected, we're looking at two more rate cuts by year end - both 25bps cuts.", as was always priced in for long while, no real surprise there

  • French Premier Barnier eyes tax hikes worth up to 18 billion euros, Parisien reports

  • U.S Wage and salary growth continues to look strong ... 6-month annualized change at +5.1% as of August, above longer-term average and Bloomberg consensus estimate for 2024 U.S. real GDP growth at a new high of +2.6%

  • JPMORGAN: “.. All things considered, budget deficits would probably rise the most in a Trump victory/GOP Sweep. .. Taken at face value, .. the Harris primary deficit impact would be smaller than Trump’s in almost all circumstances.''

  • #XAUUSD interesting to see #GDX short interest at a 5year high..


 

This is a great quizz ! WELL DONE to Helen and Richard and Team @blondemoney.co.uk Blondes had more correct answers, and possibly fun, at the FT Alphaville Pub Quiz



How to measure liquidity (ft.com) It's hard, BUT, it seems 'Federal liquidity is falling outright and the market continues to rise. The pure theory of federal liquidity, aka "printer go Brr," is looking worse all the time.'










#HSI in perspective with the 2015-16 moves/impact from the previous big stimulis





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