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July Eq markets : the 'Leopold' correction & Citadel lows!! / JPY intervention again, USD peaks short-term / FOMC..?

  • sc0172
  • 12 hours ago
  • 3 min read

  • Not sure the Leopold version the world got to know in July 2026 will get a statue..

  • FOMC final : So many different takes on the FOMC, I don't actually trade bonds much, and I actually like the maximum-confusion press conference !! >>> it probably means that truly understanding how markets work will matter most from here on... rather than CNBC and other pundits being constantly spoon-fed what to think....

  • Markets : Tech stocks are crashing, long-term rates are at highest levels since 2008, Inflation IS sticky closer to 3-4%, 2 wars waging, gas prices spiked, and seems suddenly Mr Market hates the new Fed chair (in place thanks to Trump & Bessent..!).., And yet…the S&P500 is 2% from all-time highs ....., 10's UST is back to 4.65% (same old levels.., mind you, given inflation levels, it should be more like 5.7%...if it was allowed to trade there by market forces..) let's all calm down..for now anyway >>>> BoJ unch, warns core infl going above 2% target, #JPY interventions detected 163.75 USDJPY down 400pts rapidly..(NEEDS to go sub 200dma 158 area to really worry the USD bulls).., U.S. GDP growth slows to 1.5% in Q2, once the news came out about Leopold, it was the lows, as if often always the case with these large sudden liquidation scenario, Citadel grabs the whole portfolio, vols crush, markets rally, once the cat if out of the bag, its the lows... and overnight KOSPI goes up 15%.. casino royale !, MSFT rallies to the tune of $500bn market cap in ONE day..

  • Brexit believers should ask one simple question: where do we have more real control today than we did before? (Thread)

  • India’s Sarvam announces it’s developing a trillion-plus parameter AI model from scratch that’s five times cheaper than global rivals

  • Meta’s Case for Its AI Spending Keeps Getting Weaker. The all-out splurge is running into higher costs, borrowing constraints and investor pushback

  • It is clear to me after speaking to Zelenskyy the next 100 days of the Ukraine war will decide its outcome-Donald Tusk Polish PM

  • Blue Owl’s private credit fundraising falls to slowest pace in three years


Trump exploded and lost his temper during a security meeting, shouting and cursing out of frustration over the military options presented to him and the lack of progress toward a deal with Iran, per NBC News. A US official adds "after all this time, there is no unity" inside the administration, which is "facing a strategic defeat without clear policy guidance or a decision about where this is going." An ally close to Trump adds the president is "exasperated" and there was "not a real strategy for how long or what they should do."


All ended up at Citadel of course..




The entire AI trade rests on one company that loses money ON PURPOSE. OpenAI is the load-bearing wall holding up the whole thing, accounting for $17.2 billion of Microsoft's Azure spend and driving 69% of its annual growth, which means if the venture money stops, the counterparty risk cascades straight through Microsoft, Oracle, and CoreWeave. Underneath that sits the accounting trick I've been talking about for months, where hyperscalers stretch data center useful life from 15 years to 25 to bury depreciation and flatter their margins while the GPUs inside go obsolete in three.


























 
 
 
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