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Jubail / French gold reserves / Dimon's letter, private credit risk / PIMCO / WTI : $115, Iran : another deadline tonight..

  • sc0172
  • 2 days ago
  • 4 min read

  • Iran war update : just ahead of tonight's deadline...massive fire erupts in Saudi industrial hub Al Jubail after Iranian drone attack, President Trump reasserted his Tuesday deadline of 8 p.m. Eastern time for Iran to reopen the vital oil shipping lane or the country will face bombardment of its infrastructure (thing is Iran is negotiating with RoW not with the U.S...).., “The entire country can be taken out in one night, and that night might be tomorrow night,” he said during a news conference (WSJ, FT), open the strait or we will seize the oil, there was a lot of nonsense spoken over the Easter weekend..

  • The Iran war just broke the petrodollar. For the first time since 1996, global central banks now hold more gold than US government bonds. The war is making this look like a signal, all French gold reserves are now held in Paris. French central bank nets €13bn by pulling gold out of US reserves (a little fishy..), Kuwait was forced to shut down the desalination plants that provide 90 percent of its drinking water (horrendous way to fight a war..), Qatar begins US Troop withdrawal ..! let that sink in.., Al Jazeera confirms regional powers like Qatar, Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan are completely bypassing Washington to mediate peace with Iran... >>> what next then ? ... huge escalation, ground troops etc, and/or accept Iran's leverage..(holding the strait of Hormuz is bigger than nuclear.. as it impacts global finance and hits the U.S and its allies most..)...>>> something like this... Iran gets permanent leverage over the Strait of Hormuz and in return: uranium enrichment stops, missiles capped at the current 2000km range etc

  • Markets : U.S. M2 Money Supply jumps to a new all-time high of $22.7 Trillion, why JPMorgan is warning Tesla stock may crash 60% (Ugly downgrade..), Swiss economic outlook deteriorates significantly, nearly half of planned US data centers are now being delayed or cancelled due to power shortages >>> overall choppy rangy, we could have a massive escalation and/or some sort of ceasefire, take your pick, we've rallied on hope and short-covering, Crude is and will be the tell, currently still trading near $115 WTI...

  • Private credit, in short: $1.8trn in assets nobody can price, in funds nobody can exit, on borrowers nobody stress-tested; default rates at records. Jamie Dimon says losses are already too high. Warning signs get louder and louder, pay attention!...

  • Welfare spending has overtaken tax revenue for the first time in UK history. The Treasury raised £331bn in income tax last year, while the state spent £333bn on welfare... this cannot continue, of the IMG will be asked to come and visit the UK soon..

  • PIMCO : ''US budget deficits likely “grow to ~7% of GDP for 2026. Even if the amount of the supplemental request were halved to $100bn, deficits could grow to ~6.6% ..”

  • Michael Saylor’s Strategy registered a $14.5 billion unrealized loss in the first quarter for their failed Bitcoin gamble #MSTR



Seems more reasonable..!?


"The industry has not had a credit recession in a long time, and it seems that some people assume it will never happen." The cockroaches are still there. They've just been breeding.



Guess who owns 20% of shares in this fund? Yes, another private credit fund: Cliffwater's Corporate Lending Fund (CCLFX) -- $921M as of Q3'25.





In 1974, Henry Kissinger brokered a deal with Saudi Arabia: price your oil in dollars, recycle the surplus into US Treasuries, and America guarantees your security. The arrangement was never a formal treaty. It was a handshake backed by aircraft carriers. For fifty years, every barrel of oil sold anywhere on earth created demand for the dollar that financed America’s debt. The system required two things to function: Gulf oil priced in dollars, and an American navy guaranteeing the strait through which that oil flowed. Both conditions held until February 28, 2026
















 
 
 

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