JGB 10y yields 2.92%, highest in 30y / AI : harder to monetize / Copper highest px in history / U.S debt : $40 trn here we go..

• U.S. on track to spend $1.7 trillion annually in interest payments if rates remain stable, which would surpass social security as the largest government expenditure!, we should hit $40trn debt today, remarkable achievement from the Trump administration...winning!

• Markets : Private credit under strain as troubled loans swell and Japan’s 10-year bond yield hits three-decade high - GDP grows only 1.1% yoy, missing expectations as one would expect... (FT-article available for blog subscribers) >>> FED rate cut exp down to 30% for Sep (60% highs) following soft inflation data and weaker macro, USDollar softer (positioning got very long USDlast week...), PM's higher as you would expect, crude $80-85 , Strait of Hormuz shipping grinds to a halt ahead of U.S.-Iran ceasefire expiry, markets broadly speaking pretty steady and happy on low vols, FED expectations for Sep lowered/helping, for now we remain in low vol environment, watch Trump/iran/crude for clues and duration yields...

• Mega-bunker for the super-rich being built in Swiss Alps

• Fed rate-hike expectations fall: Markets have cut the probability of a Federal Reserve rate increase next month to around 30% from 50%, after weaker US retail sales and consumer sentiment data raised concerns about the strength of the economy

• Geneva super-rich rocked by luxury home burglary spree. Swiss officials say gangs from France are responsible for a recent rise in ‘homejackings’, sometimes at gunpoint

• Jane Street suffers $15bn hit after meltdown at Situational Awareness

  Secretive Wall Street trading firm wrongfooted by July AI rout (apparent hero few months ago to this... stay humble everyone !)...

• OpenAI has cut the price of one of its models by 80%, Anthropic is also lowering prices, while DeepSeek and Moonshot continue to push increasingly capable Chinese models at extremely low costs - FT *AI usage can continue to explode while becoming much harder to monetize for the companies actually building the models

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Strait of Hormuz shipping slows as U.S.-Iran ceasefire nears end

Barchart on X: "JUST IN 🚨: Copper on track for its highest closing price in history 📈 📈 https://t.co/KFpuMf8FEG" / X

Private credit under strain as troubled loans swell

Japan’s 10-year bond yield hits three-decade high

Geneva super-rich rocked by luxury home burglary spree

Jane Street suffers $15bn hit after meltdown at Situational Awareness

Barchart on X: "U.S. on track to spend $1.7 trillion annually in interest payments if rates remain stable, which would surpass social security as the largest government expenditure 🚨 🚨 https://t.co/XIx9WqBJC4" / X

Mega-bunker for the super-rich being built in Swiss Alps - SWI swissinfo.ch

Basel’s world-beating pharma hub fights for place in new global order - SWI swissinfo.ch

Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 on X: "🧠 OpenAI has cut the price of one of its models by 80%, Anthropic is also lowering prices, while DeepSeek and Moonshot continue to push increasingly capable Chinese models at extremely low costs - FT *AI usage can continue to explode while becoming much harder to monetize for https://t.co/aLoUcbGNkA" / X