JGB 10y yields 2.45% / Orban out / UK-EU to align more / Ai energy ! / Trump's move in blocking Hormuz could backfire
- sc0172
- 1 day ago
- 4 min read
Iran war update : Ormuz in focus again...Oil and gas jumped, while stocks and bonds fell after Donald Trump ordered a full naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following failed negotiations with Iran over the weekend. Vessels that aren’t stopping in the Islamic Republic will be allowed to pass. Two fuel tankers are attempting the exit through the strait, with US forces set to begin the blockade at 10 a.m. ET today. Tehran warned any military vessels approaching the strait “under any pretext” would be treated as a ceasefire violation. The president said he doesn’t care if Iran returns for talks or not, seems Vance had NO authority in Islamabad talks, he called Trump during talks 12 times to get 'feedback'.. >>> '''Trump’s counter-blockade in the Strait of Hormuz seems comically absurd and seems born out of raw desperation..'''
Markets : Citi hints Saaspocalypse is far from over, Orban got hammered in Hungary and the new party has 2/3rd majority (constitutional changes possible), GS kicks off bank earnings season today >> usual Trump moves on a Sunday, send markets down in Asia, (he can't afford higher crude..) then probably come up with some sort of 'we've had a regime change, talks going well, we can do business'' etc...more bigly INSIDER trading do doubt..., UK could align with EU rules without full parliamentary scrutiny, JGB 10y yields 2.45% claxon, markets fading Trump's 'moves', having less and less impact, earnings season kicking-off today
AI Is Using So Much Energy That Computing Firepower Is Running Out. AI companies are rationing offerings and products, rankling users—a warning sign for a boom that depends on rapid adoption. (WSJ)
Empty threats, we've been here before, if he does, then China stops rare earth exports.. nothing new...
Brief Trump summary of the past weeks:
- “Open the strait”
- “Help us open the strait”
- “We don’t need the strait open”
- “Open the f’king strait or I destroy you all”
- “We block the strait”
''The reason Trump’s counter-blockade in the Strait of Hormuz seems comically absurd is because it is born out of raw desperation. You see, Trump expected Europe and others to send their navies to reopen the Strait, figuring that those regions rely upon trade via the Strait more than we do. What he didn’t figure was how utterly intransigent the Euros and others would be to his pressure campaign. Once he realized that the Euros, Japanese, etc., were simply going to pay the Iranian toll to move their goods through the Strait rather than risk a war, Trump panicked, understanding too late in this affair how dreadfully exposed to the disruptions of Iran’s blockade the US economy was. Now, Trump is scrambling. Desperate to pressure the rest of the world into supporting his bid to reopen the Strait. He still doesn’t get it. Which is why he will keep getting this thing wrong.'''
China in English on X: "Trump: “I think that countries like Japan and China have neither the courage nor the will to open the Strait of Hormuz.” ➖️China: “The Strait of Hormuz was already open before the war. You are the ones who created the war out of nothing and closed the strait to the rest of the https://t.co/LSWGvZkyXX" / X
The Guardian: “Ministers are planning to fundamentally reshape Britain’s relationship with the European Union, with new legislation that could result in the UK signing up to EU single market rules without a normal parliamentary vote. In a major development in the prime minister’s push for closer ties with the continent after the Iran war, the Guardian understands ministers are bracing to face down opposition to “dynamic alignment” with the EU from those who “scream treason” over the powers in a new EU-UK reset bill. After weeks of Donald Trump’s war with Iran that have exposed the fragility of the UK’s damaged special relationship with the US, ministers argue the move will add billions to the UK economy, help temper the cost of the conflict and boost sluggish productivity.”
Maybe Vance going there 1 week before the election wasn't such a great idea..
Citi hints Saaspocalypse is far from over: "As we look ahead to Q1 earnings-and-beyond, amidst parabolic AI revenue inflections at foundational model leaders, we outline updated views on software. Put simply, we see risk that concerns around software application architecture, business model durability and terminal value intensify in the months ahead. Privately held AI companies are on track to add $100 billion+ of net-new revenue in the years ahead, materially eclipsing the $50 billion of traditional application software NNACV. While AI budgets may be mostly additive vs. replacement to software, checks indicate an uptick in software optimization costs/vendor consolidation."
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