Inflation, WTI $105+ again, Fixed Income lower across board, 10's UST 4.62% ! / Xi - Trump meeting : no big real agreement

sc0172
13 minutes ago
3 min read

Trump - Xi meeting, noting major agreed, yet anyway, on Taiwan, Iran, trade, the next few days-week will be the tell
Iran update : Washington's $40 billion Hormuz insurance fix: zero takers, Iran is fully prepared to seize the coastlines of the UAE and Bahrain if the UAE attempts to invade and seize Iranian-controlled islands in the Persian Gulf, Three drones reached the Arab world's only nuclear power plant Sunday, Trump is already openly declaring that the Iranians should fear what is Right now (threats on Truth social),
Markets : the 3y high on U.S CPI last week eventually tipped risk over with UST 10y yields breaking well above 4.5% previous tops - now 4.62%, in reality all FI sold off, and equity eventually duly followed, with little or no great news out of China meeting, WTI crude trades $105+ too, China retail sales softer >>> given Iran situation still totally unclear (WTI 105+), Fixed Income breaking down (yields higher), even after the little sell-off in risk late last week, it would not be too surprising risk to struggle further ion days-weeks ahead, valuations etc etc, USDJPY testing BoJ-Bessent up closer to 160JPY again, PM's had a rocky week, selling off with risk on Thursday-Friday again, back to decent levels for new longs
Two months after Trump announced that the US would provide insurance to ships seeking to transit the Strait of Hormuz, the programme has not provided a single dollar of cover
Japan PM looks to mull extra budget for FY 2026 to ease oil price impact, more debt!
UK leadership hopeful Streeting calls Brexit a 'catastrophic mistake', Labour party making a real mess of all this, losing credibility !

Goldman Sachs on a potential large sell-off in stocks soon: "Although we agree that the risks have fallen, the prospect of more adverse outcomes is still very real, and we think that deeper downside tail is underpriced. There is a challenging circularity here too: although markets are looking through any temporary disruptions, it may also be that another bout of market worry is needed to force an agreement that allows oil flows to resume. The longer we go without a clear peace agreement and a convincing reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the more likely we are to revisit that risk as energy product shortages become clearer."