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German PPI ⬇️, JPN infl ⬆️ / Gold / FM survey : USD -ve / Fed speakers, FOMC Minutes key tom eve



  • Q3 2022 was pretty much a record quarter for central bank #GOLD purchases (thread-chart), China thought to be stockpiling gold to cut greenback dependence. Buying of metal is at its fastest pace since the 1960s

  • Jerome Powell's speech at the Brookings Institute on November 30th seems to have only been announced yesterday. Notably, it is just two days before the Fed's pre-FOMC comms blackout begins. Fed’s Mester wants more progress on #inflation before ending interest rate hikes. Real impact of #Fed hikes likely bigger than what target rate implies, Daly says and finally, "The Fed could move to pause its rate hikes as soon as next month in our view" - Mike Wilson/MS

  • Producer prices in Germany jumped 34.5% in October compared to the same month a year earlier, the country's national statistical office Destatis announced on Monday. The producer inflation rate was down from 45.8% recorded a month earlier...On a monthly basis, the producer price index slid 4.2% in October #peakinflation confirmed

  • Rishi Sunak rules out Swiss-style trade deal with EU, UK's public borrowing rises by less than expected., October's figure of £13.5bn is much less than £22bn forecasts from economists

  • BOJ inflation gauge hits record high as price pressures mount in Japan. Nakaso, a contender to lead BOJ, urges removal of emergency support

  • Fund Managers Are Turning Ever More Pessimistic on the US Dollar. Short dollar positions are at most since July 2021: CFTC data..“The dollar’s exceptionalism premium is receding:” Bromhead

  • China trade: another blow for battered consumer exports to US in October, Beijing shuts parks, museums as China's COVID cases rise

  • Minneapolis Fed's Kashkari said whole idea of cryptocurrency is “nonsense” after implosion of FTX revealed industry’s shortcomings: "Not useful 4 payments. No inflation hedge. No scarcity. No taxing authority. Just a tool of speculation & greater fools."

  • Germany says it has enough gas for the next TWO winters - whaoo

  • Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley agree on the direction for stocks next year: they see substantially more downside before equities find a floor and return to where they are now

  • Humans mined 700 million tons of copper over the last 5,000 years. The same 700 million tons will need to be mined over the next 22 years to meet energy transition targets using wind, solar, & electric vehicles

  • A large number of tankers which previously sailed under European Union flags, such as Cyprus’ and Malta’s, are leaving those registers as a result of the sanctions on Russian oil transportation

  • BlackRock - central banks are causing recessions rather than coming to the rescue

 
Markets:
  • Crude dropped 3usd on some WSJ story that Saudi Arabia was going to boost output, later denied and back to square one on the day. Goldman's latest report on oil. Lowering Q4 2022 price target to $100/bbl from $110/bbl, largely from uncertainty surrounding China. Fundamentals look fine (thread)

  • USDollar trade and budget deficit and peak rates insight, always tricky, but markets are slowly worried of a weaker $ into 2023, #peakUSDollar with peak UST yields in play..USDCNH holding up, stalling USD downside, USDCHF held/back above that monthly chart/trend support around 0.9400/50

  • Equity markets rangy in this Thanksgiving week, ARKK related type names struggling on yet more crypto worries and BTC price breaking down. SPX500 3900/20 support vs 4050/85 resistance

  • BTC breaking down <16K, it was 8k in early 2020 before all the covid QE checks, ETH was <$200, not saying it goes there, just to put things in perspective

  • Bond vols continue to slow, MOVE index, peak 10y yields most likely seen around 4.3%, all about FOMC in Dec and beware final signal on 30th Nov from Powell

 

Fed's Mester wants more progress on inflation before ending interest rate hikes (cnbc.com)


Future-of-Copper.pdf (ihsmarkit.com)


OpenSquareCapital on Twitter: "Excerpts from Goldman's latest report on oil. Lowering Q4 2022 price target to $100/bbl from $110/bbl, largely from uncertainty surrounding China. Fundamentals look fine. #oil #COM #EFT #OOTT https://t.co/ER6tQj8AKT" / Twitter


BOJ inflation gauge hits record high as price pressures mount in Japan | Forexlive


BlackRock - central banks are causing recessions rather than coming to the rescue | Forexlive


China thought to be stockpiling gold to cut greenback dependence - Nikkei Asia

There was some huge CB buying in Q3 2022


FTX : was apparently a $32bn company, they never had any board meetings, many of the emplyees were fake, the Bahamas govt was behind the $600 hack, customer funds were used to buy SBG real estate and advisors now saying fraud is far worse than Enron..... tainting the whole crypto world, coins, other exchanges all to possibly be questioned...the story is not over, probably put crypto back into the ice age for many investors..

Op-Ed: Could DCG be the catalyst for max pain in the crypto markets? (cryptoslate.com)

ʎllǝuuop ʇuǝɹq on Twitter: "The Alameda pitch deck will go down in history right alongside the LTCM brochure. https://t.co/JqdIihj4Ua" / Twitter


AndreasStenoLarsen on Twitter: "Q3 was pretty much a record quarter for central bank gold purchases https://t.co/XWNhku5XBI" / Twitter chart


What did COP27 achieve? (qz.com)


Switzerland and UK sign trade conformity agreement - SWI swissinfo.ch


Fund Managers Are Piling On Dollar Shorts on Peak Fed Bets - Bloomberg


China trade: another blow for battered consumer exports to US in October | South China Morning Post (scmp.com)


Fed's Powell to speak on economy on Nov. 30, two days before blackout | Morningstar


Tankers are ditching EU flags | eKathimerini.com


Nakaso, a contender to lead BOJ, urges removal of emergency support | Reuters


Bear Stock Markets Will Last Through 2023, Goldman Sachs Says - Bloomberg


Infinity Q founder, once claiming $3 billion assets, pleads guilty to fraud (yahoo.com)



Have a great day

Team PVM

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