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German dentist PF! / Bessent's USDJPY check tied to capping UST yields, all related to 'PRIVATE CREDIT' / NVDA next

  • sc0172
  • Feb 25
  • 3 min read

  • Markets : focus on PRIVATE credit, it IS definitely a BIG part of the puzzle for risk going forward, 15.4% of investment grade debt is tied to AI, making it the largest sector in the credit market, per JP Morgan (whaoo), Boaz Weinstein said turmoil at Blue Owl is exposing deeper cracks in the $1.8 trillion industry, let's face it, no-one really knows how bad or big it is out there, Anthropic also links Ai agent with tools for Investment Banking, HR..., German dentists’ pension fund loses nearly half its assets, raising concerns over governance, oversight, and risk management in Germany’s profession-based pension system (PRIVATE loans, unlisted companies...etc etc >>> Bessent 'had' to check USDJPY rates to stop JPY from weakening, which pushed JGB yields much higher, dragging UST yields higher too, really worrying 'private credit' , NVDA after the bell now ! Gold, precious metals showing renewed signs of strength

  • Insurers are increasingly holding Level 3 assets on their books. 18% of fixed income holdings in aggregate, with some exceeding 30% (36% of Athene's assets are Level 3). The concern here is opacity of said assets (and whether they are sellable at par if needed) / Thread

  • Good Thread / take on private credit: "Private wealth flows are pro-cyclical ''They love income when volatility is low, they demand liquidity when volatility spikes."...A lot of paper wealth been leveraged out there

  • UBS’s Matt Mish lays out a scenario for credit involving “rapid, aggressive AI disruption.” US high yield, leveraged loan & private credit default rates could rise to 3–6%, 8–10%, & 14–15%, respectively: Mish. “Defaults could approach ~$420bn, w/losses of roughly ~$300bn”

  • Trump said Iran is working to reconstitute its nuclear program in his State of the Union address, pledging to “never allow” Tehran to have a weapon. While the comments added to speculation about potential US military action, the president also reiterated his desire for a diplomatic solution. (BBG)


USDJPY 'check' and UST yields : Bessent is much more of a trader (and yet also much more political) than most Treasury secretaries ...This makes sense as Bessent wants to enforce his "put" in the long end. Bessent knows that for there to be a durable top in long end yields, USDJPY upside has to be contained. That was the message of the Dec-Jan duration sell off.
























 
 
 

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