France RN : no majority in round 2 / Biden hanging in there / FOMC minutes : dovish / Swiss inflation softer / UK election and Happy Independence day

Stéphan
Jul 4, 2024
2 min read

UK's Labour could head to a monster majority of over 400seats
Overall, FOMC minutes : slightly dovish as the committee seems to have become relatively more optimistic on the inflation outlook >>> consistent with Chair Powell's comments in Sintra yesterday >>> Sep cut almost all priced in (75%)
France election update : seems now NR projections are for 200 seats, below 289 majority to form govt, which is way below 1st round, always about those alliances in round 2... >>> euro, OATs, equity recovered..
U.S services PMI much weaker at 48.8, after 53.8 in May, ISM Manufacturing and Services now both in contraction as of June, The Bloomberg US Economic Surprise Index has dropped to a 9-year low
Jobless claims were up slightly but continuing claims keep climbing and are now at the highest since late 2021. Is the Fed paying attention to this?
“We do think the labor market will remain tight due to the imminent wave of Baby Boomer retirements:” RBC’s Reid. The job openings rate, now at 4.9%, remains higher than pre-Covid, but the labor force has grown less than 3% since 2019, “suggesting demographic forces are at play.”
The last major bear on Wall Street has capitulated, Kolanovic leaves JPM
Trump floats replacing income tax with tariffs
#BTC Bitcoin is trading right on the big trend line and the lower part of the range. Note the 200 day moving average slightly lower 59500 area
A series of raids in Italy has exposed the contrast between the glamorous world of Milan’s catwalks and some of the realities of luxury-goods production
Swiss CPI inflation undershoots SNB projections again, down to 1.33% in June. Core inflation eased to 1.1%